BITCOIN: Price Will Go UP Until This Specific Signal

Summary

In this video, the speaker analyzes the current cryptocurrency market rally, emphasizing key signals such as volatility and the HPDR to project future price movements, particularly for Bitcoin. The focus is on the 'minimum signal' that could indicate the end of the bull market, as well as potential price levels around $75k and $80k in the short term. The speaker highlights tools like the Caretaker CT Sequential for trend analysis and discusses upcoming sales for Quant Prime. The overall outlook suggests continued upward momentum through 2025, with possible corrections along the way.

Takeaways

• 😀 Volatility is a key indicator for identifying major market highs and lows, especially when it reaches above 75-80% on the CME weekly chart.
• 😀 The current Bitcoin rally could continue into mid to late December 2024, with potential price levels reaching the mid-80s in volatility.
• 😀 Breakouts after long consolidation periods, like the one we're experiencing now, often do not retest, so waiting for a pullback could lead to missed opportunities.
• 😀 The **bi-weekly volatility** shows that there is still room for Bitcoin's price to rise, possibly pushing past previous levels of resistance.
• 😀 The **Caretaker Sequential Indicator** suggests a continuation of upward momentum, with projections showing a possible rise into the low $80k range in the next couple of weeks.
• 😀 The critical price level to watch on the downside is **$73,500**; if Bitcoin drops below this, the trend may change to bearish.
• 😀 The weekly closure for Bitcoin on CME is crucial; a close above **$78,200** could signal a move towards $82,000 or even higher next week.
• 😀 For anyone interested in automating trades, there will be a **Black Friday sale** on Quant Prime at the end of November.
• 😀 The speaker encourages engagement with the community, promoting a **Q&A session** on Discord where questions from followers will be answered.
• 😀 Despite the current bullish sentiment, the market could experience brief pullbacks or corrections, which are normal in any strong rally.

Q & A

What is the minimum signal for identifying when the current bull market may end?

The minimum signal is based on volatility, particularly when it reaches around 75-80% on the weekly chart. This has historically marked major highs and lows in the market.

How does volatility affect market analysis in this video?

Volatility is used as a tool to gauge the intensity of market moves. High volatility, especially when above 75%, tends to correspond with significant highs or lows, regardless of whether the market is moving up or down.

What is the expected trend for the crypto market until December 2024?

The rally is expected to continue until at least mid-December 2024, with the potential to extend into Q1 of 2025, possibly peaking around late February or March 2025.

What does the speaker mean by 'good breakouts do not retest'?

'Good breakouts' refer to strong price movements that typically do not return to their previous breakout levels. Retests tend to happen in weaker breakouts that may fail to continue the trend.

How does the 5-day chart impact the market outlook?

The 5-day chart shows price movement in the shorter term and supports the expectation of testing the top side of the 50% region around $80,000, with possible continued bullish momentum.

What does the speaker think about pullbacks in the market?

Pullbacks are expected and not necessarily concerning. However, they are not expected to be significant as long as the market stays above key levels, such as $73,500.

What is the projected price level for Bitcoin in the coming weeks?

Bitcoin is expected to test the $80,000 level in the next week or two, with the potential to reach the low $80,000s if the trend continues.

What role does the bi-weekly volatility signal play in market projections?

The bi-weekly volatility signal shows that the market still has room to grow, with expectations for volatility to increase further, possibly reaching 80% on the bi-weekly chart before a cycle top occurs.

What is the significance of the $73,500 price level for Bitcoin?

The $73,500 level is considered a key support line. As long as Bitcoin remains above this price, the overall market trend is expected to remain bullish.

Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of higher time frames in technical analysis?

Higher time frames, such as the 2-day and 3-day charts, give a clearer view of the broader trend. They are less influenced by short-term fluctuations, making them more reliable for long-term projections.