Convergent - divergent: Kathryn Kaminski at TEDxKTH

Summary

In this talk, Katherine Kaminsky explores two distinct risk-taking strategies: convergent and divergent. Convergent risk-takers believe in stability and predictability, often yielding small, consistent gains with occasional significant losses. Divergent risk-takers, on the other hand, embrace uncertainty, experiencing small losses but occasional euphoric wins. Through real-world examples, such as career choices, social networking, and venture capital, Kaminsky illustrates how each approach aligns with different life objectives. She challenges the audience to reflect on their own risk-taking tendencies and encourages adapting both strategies to achieve a balanced approach to success, innovation, and security.

Takeaways

• 😀 Risk is an essential part of human experience, defined as the chance that things might not go as expected or the uncertainty of unknown consequences.
• 😀 Risk-taking can be both conscious and subconscious, rational or emotional, and it is something we engage in regularly.
• 😀 Risk-taking strategies can be divided into two main types: convergent and divergent.
• 😀 Convergent risk-takers believe the world and the risks they face are stable, predictable, and dependable.
• 😀 Divergent risk-takers, on the other hand, acknowledge their ignorance about the risks they face and embrace uncertainty.
• 😀 A convergent risk-taking strategy involves making many small gains and handling occasional large losses by doubling down on convictions.
• 😀 A divergent risk-taking strategy involves cutting losses quickly but doubling up on wins, with the hope of finding a big success.
• 😀 Practical examples of convergent risk-taking include activities like crossing the street, studying, and working in stable jobs.
• 😀 Divergent risk-taking is exemplified in activities like tinkering, social networking, entrepreneurship, and venture capital investing.
• 😀 The ultimate goal is not to choose between convergent or divergent risk-taking but to combine both approaches based on the situation and personal objectives.
• 😀 Self-reflection is crucial in understanding your risk-taking behavior. Are you more convergent, seeking satisfaction and security, or divergent, seeking innovation and success?

Q & A

What is the core of human experience as discussed in the script?

Risk is at the core of human experience. It is defined as the chance that things may not turn out as expected, leading to uncertainty about the outcome or consequences.

How do convergent and divergent risk-taking differ in terms of belief about the world?

Convergent risk-takers believe the world is stable and that the risks they face are predictable and knowable. In contrast, divergent risk-takers acknowledge uncertainty and do not assume they fully understand the structure of the risks they face.

What happens when a convergent risk-taker experiences a loss?

A convergent risk-taker tends to double down on their position when they experience a loss, reinforcing their belief in the underlying stability of the risk.

What characterizes a divergent risk-taking strategy when faced with a loss?

A divergent risk-taker will cut their losses when they experience a failure, as they accept the uncertainty and are not emotionally invested in the belief that they will succeed in that specific risk.

How do the outcomes of convergent and divergent strategies differ over time?

Convergent strategies generally result in many small gains over time, with occasional large losses. Divergent strategies, on the other hand, involve frequent small losses but have the potential for occasional, significant wins, known as euphoric wins.

Can you give an example of convergent risk-taking in daily life?

Crossing the street is an example of convergent risk-taking—while it’s generally safe, the risk of being hit by a car, although rare, can have catastrophic consequences.

What is the role of 'tinkering' in divergent risk-taking?

Tinkering refers to the process of experimenting with many ideas and strategies, most of which may fail, but the hope is that through this trial and error, an innovative solution will emerge, a common approach in divergent risk-taking.

What is the difference between a regular job and entrepreneurship in terms of risk-taking?

A regular job involves convergent risk-taking, offering more stability and predictable outcomes. Entrepreneurship, however, involves divergent risk-taking, where the entrepreneur faces greater uncertainty and unpredictability in their path to success.

How does venture capital relate to divergent risk-taking?

Venture capital involves divergent risk-taking by investing small amounts of money in multiple startups, acknowledging the high risk and uncertainty involved, with the hope that one will yield a massive return, such as the next successful tech company.

What is the ultimate goal when blending convergent and divergent risk-taking strategies?

The ultimate goal is to combine convergent and divergent strategies in a balanced way to achieve a blend of stability, satisfaction, resilience, and innovation. This balance helps you optimize for both short-term security and long-term success.