ð§ââïžForbes Zombie Chains? SHOCKING Truthðµïž
Summary
TLDRãã®ã¹ã¯ãªããã¯ãForbesãçºè¡šãã2024幎ã®ããŸã³ãã³ã€ã³å ±åæžãã«åºã¥ããŠã20ã®æå·é貚ãããŸã³ãã³ã€ã³ããšåä»ããããšã玹ä»ãããã®ãã¡ã®ããã€ãã«ã€ããŠåæããŠããŸããå ±éã«ããã°ããããã®ã³ã€ã³ã¯é«ãåžå ŽäŸ¡å€ãæã¡ã€ã€ããå®çšæ§ãæ®åçãäœããšãããŠããŸããè§é¢äžã§ããããã®ã³ã€ã³ã®ååŒé床ãæ¥ã ã®ã¢ã¯ãã£ããŠãŒã¶ãŒæ°ãææ°æãåžå ŽäŸ¡å€ããããŠå šææè ã®éäžåºŠãªã©ãæ§ã ãªææšãè©äŸ¡ãããã®ãã¡ã®ããã€ããçãæ®ãå¯èœæ§ããããã©ãããæ¢æ±ããŠããŸãããŸããæè³å®¶ã¯æ©æã®æè³å®¶ã倧åä¿æè ïŒãŠã£ãŒã«ïŒãã圱é¿ãåããããšãªããèªåã®å€æã§æè³ãã¹ãã§ãããšã¢ããã€ã¹ããŠããŸããæåŸã«ãç¹å®ã®æå·é貚ãçãæ®ãå¯èœæ§ããããã©ããã®çµè«ãæ瀺ããæè³å®¶ã«å¯ŸããŠãããã°ãã«ããŒãïŒæã£ãŠãããŸãŸã®ä¿æè ïŒã«ã¯ãªããªãããã«èŠåããŠããŸãã
Takeaways
- ð ãã©ãŒãã¹ã2024幎ã®ããŸã³ãã³ã€ã³å ±åæžããçºè¡šãã20ã®æå·é貚ãããŸã³ãã³ã€ã³ããšæåããŸããã
- 𧮠ããŸã³ãä¿æ°ããšããã¢ãã«ã2021幎ã«èæ¡ãããã®åšãã§ã¢ãã«ãæ§ç¯ãããšè¿°ã¹ãŠããŸããããã®è©³çŽ°ã¯èª¬æãããŠããŸããã
- ð« å ±åæžã§æåãããæå·é貚ã«ã¯ãRipple (XRP)ãCardanoãLitecoinãEthereum ClassicãICP ãªã©ãå«ãŸããŠããŸããããã®æ£åœæ§ã«ã€ããŠçåãæããããããŠããŸãã
- ðž æå·é貚ã®åžå ŽäŸ¡å€ã¯é«ããšããå®çšæ§ãæ¡çšããªããã°æå³ããªããšè¿°ã¹ãŠããŸãã
- ðïž ãããã¯ãã§ãŒã³ã¯ã·ã§ããã³ã°ã¢ãŒã«ã®ãããªãã®ã§ãããå€ãã®äººã ã掻åããå®å šæ§ãšæŽ»çºããæ±ãããããšè¿°ã¹ãŠããŸãã
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Q & A
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Outlines
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Mindmap
Keywords
ð¡ãŸã³ãã³ã€ã³ (Zombie Coin)
ð¡åžå ŽäŸ¡å€ (Market Cap)
ð¡ãã©ã³ã¶ã¯ã·ã§ã³ã»ããŒã»ã»ã«ã³ã (TPS, Transactions Per Second)
ð¡ãã€ãªãŒã»ã¢ã¯ãã£ãã»ãŠãŒã¶ãŒ (Daily Active Users)
ð¡
ð¡ææ°æ (Fees)
ð¡ããŒã±ããã»ãã£ãã/ãã€ãªãŒã»ã¢ã¯ãã£ãã»ãŠãŒã¶ãŒ (Market Cap over Daily Active Users)
ð¡ãã«ãã£ãªã¥ãŒãã»ããŒã±ããã»ãã£ãã (Fully Diluted Market Cap)
ð¡ãŠã©ãŒã«ã»ã³ã³ã»ã³ãã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ (Whale Concentration)
ð¡ãªãŒã«ã¿ã€ã ã»ã〠(All-Time High)
ð¡ATRã¢ãã« (ATR Model)
Highlights
Forbes released a report in 2024 identifying 20 cryptocurrencies as 'Zombie coins', which despite high market value, lack utility and adoption.
The concept of 'Zombie coefficient' was introduced in 2021, and a model was built around it to identify non-performing cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies like Ripple (XRP), Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Ethereum Classic were specifically named as zombie coins in the Forbes report.
The presenter plans to perform a detailed Quant analysis and ATR analysis on each of the listed cryptocurrencies to test their viability.
The importance of transactions per second (TPS) was discussed, with the presenter noting that the analyzed platforms had very slow TPS compared to the average.
Daily active users for different chains were compared, revealing that many of the listed zombie coins had abysmal user counts.
The presenter highlighted the significance of fees, stating that chains not generating income are not sustainable.
Market caps of the discussed cryptocurrencies were scrutinized, with questions raised about their justification given the low daily active users.
The presenter introduced the 'ATR model' as a tool to identify if a cryptocurrency chain has signs of life or is a zombie.
Whale concentration was discussed as a critical aspect, with high concentration indicating a higher likelihood of the tokens being offloaded onto retail investors.
The distance from all-time high was used as a metric to determine the health of a cryptocurrency, with coins far from their highs considered zombies.
Cardano's declining daily active addresses and fees were highlighted as concerning signs for the cryptocurrency's future.
XRP was criticized for its high market cap per daily active user and for the company's practice of diluting and inflating tokens.
Phantom's potential was discussed in the context of its new upgrade 'Sonic', which aims to increase transaction speed and finality.
The presenter warned against the hype and promotion of certain cryptocurrencies by 'pump and dump' schemes, urging viewers to conduct their research.
ICP (Internet Computer) was criticized for its outdated technology and lack of real-world use cases, contributing to its classification as a zombie chain.
The ATR model was used to visually represent the life signs of various cryptocurrencies, with some showing potential while others were deemed non-viable.
The presenter concluded by advising viewers not to become 'bag holders' for cryptocurrencies that do not show strong signs of growth or utility.
Transcripts
hey everybody I'm back again today is
going to be an interesting one and it's
not one that I like to do but I serve
the community I serve the audience here
and you asked for this so Forbes came
out with u a report they called it their
zombie coin report for 2024 and they
identified 20 cryptocurrencies that they
called Zombie coins it's brilliant
because I came up with a thing called
the zombie coefficient in 2021 and we
actually built a model around it kind of
interesting so maybe Forbes is looking
at my stuff I hope so anyway these are
cryptocurrencies that despite having a
high market value huge market caps in
some cases they have no utility and no
adoption same stuff I talk about now
this report notably mentions names like
Ripple xrp cardano Litecoin ethereum
classic ICP as zombie coins now I'm
going to dig in and see if their entire
list of 20 has any winners in it or if
Forbes are correct so let's dig in and
again
there's crypto is very cultish and
people that own certain bags get very
upset so what we're going to do is we're
going to to go through the list of these
names uh this isn't a very easy to read
list but it has the details but if you
do want to see this report just go to
Forbes look up zombie coins you'll find
it and this is a better view of the
actual list xrp cardano Bitcoin cash
Litecoin internet computer ethereum
classic Stellar Stacks Caspa Theta
Phantom Monero R weave aland flow Alon
Bitcoin SV Mina tasos and
AOS now for 3 years now since I've been
doing this I've been trying to guide
people away from scam chains because I
look at things in a very simple way and
again thank you all for being here and
hope you're not offend I will be doing a
detailed Quant analysis on each of these
then I will do an ATR analysis to test
if they are zombies or not and then you
make up your own mind decision and if
you want to be a bag holder if these
coins are going to make it or not big
thank you as well to T Tesla and Shan
donaly for being here in the chat this
will get spicy and again I serve you I
have no agenda none whatsoever so the
way I look at crypto I look at it like a
shopping mall all right you want lots of
foot traffic you want lots of stores
which are like daps you want lots of
spending you want hopefully people with
lots of money people won't steal your
stuff and that's what you want in a
blockchain this is what you don't want
in a blockchain what I call a ghost
chain where there's no stores garbage no
foot traffic is just dead okay and we
will break it down as to identify how
you identify if something is dead or not
by the way as I do this we'll get to the
chart in a minute but bitcoin's up 1,218
bucks not bad now warning this is Quant
only the way I approach investing is
through a lot of modeling a lot of
analysis and a lot of ta that's it that
way I remove any emotion from any
decision making but I'll share with you
a ton of data that took a long time to
put together so you can make up your own
mind first of all let's look at the
first step transactions per second this
wasn't something that was called out by
our friends at Forbes but these are the
TPS levels now what I did as well just
so you know I broke it out between the
smart contract platforms and the other
tokens some of the other tokens really
aren't really worth even talking about
but I will go through them all in the
ATR model towards the end but let's get
the Quant out of the way first first of
all they all have very slow transactions
per second we have analyzed 52 different
smart contract Platforms in great detail
the average TPS transactions per second
for all of these 52 platforms is eight
this is the TP PS right now for these
platforms Phantom 2 and A2 Al Grand 11.9
Flo 8.6 cardano 0.6 Elon 2.1 ICP 0.1
transactions per second and stacks
0.4 now we have a certain chain that'll
remain
nameless doesn't even isn't even running
fast enough at 3,000 TPS so the question
is you make up your mind is that enough
speed for you going forward Also let's
look at the daily active users for 52
different chains we have an average
daily active user count of
4177 by the way when I talk about 52
layer ones and layer twos a lot of them
are complete garbage all right this is
the average so if you're not even at the
average you should be concerned and
again this is just numbers everybody
don't be offended uh Phantom
4,714 nearly at the average so Phantom
that's good for them
uh cardano 33,000 uh alran 28,000 Flo
1,000 users Elon 10,000 users ICP 4,000
users and stacks 12,000 users so the
question is yes they are very abysmal
daily active user numbers next let's
look at fees if a chain is not making
money it's not going to make it it's
that simple now the average fee per
smart contract platform of the $50 do is
11,705 and you can see Phantom makes
2,600 bucks a day Al Grant $1,100
flow6 ICP
$16 Elon nothing cardano $5,900 bucks
Stacks 10,500 again all under the
average not good not good at all let's
look at market
caps this is kind of stunning so uh
these are the market caps of these names
uh the average market cap for the top 52
platforms is 3.6 billion but remember
that
includes Bitcoin and ethereum as well
and we know how big they are okay so the
average even taking that you got cardano
$16 billion market cap is that just
Justified ICP 6 billion Stacks 3 billion
and I know people have had a good time
Stacks this year but is it really worth
it I don't know Phantom 1.8 aland
1.4 you know and I know as well we've
got meme coins with higher market caps
than some of these um this is market cap
over daily active users very important
statistic I look at a lot the average is
74,000 you've got flow here
1.67 million ICP $1.3
million you got C
half a million dollars per
user they are not sustainable numbers at
all thank you so much Joe for coming not
sustainable so either something has to
happen either the market cap has to come
down a lot to justify these numbers or
their amount of daily active views has
to go to the moon real fast also we've
got this is uh another version of this
market cap over daily
transactions and some crazy numbers here
c 300
31,000 of market cap per transaction
that's nuts ICP 518,000 that's nuts the
average for all of these top 52 scps is
$6,000 Phantom is $8,600 so nearly in
line Elon
6,000 not bad but again watch these
numbers carefully now we have fully
diluted market cap remember a lot of
these tokens still are going through a
lot of inflation over daily active users
flow 1.67 million cardano 65,000 ICP
$1.5
million per
user ridiculous
ridiculous and then I know people say
but but blockchain is special no it's
not okay look at the analog world
compared to the crypto World pretty much
the same okay there has to be a lot of
growth a lot of growth to sustain that
then we'll look at at the CC this crypto
compendium breakout this is all by the
way we've spent years building these
things so we could share with you all of
the truth that's how I pick winners how
I pick the best Bitcoin miner how I pick
the best crypto is because of
insane insane thousands of hours of
modeling data Gathering API building to
get all of this stuff and we share it
with you for free so I hope you
appreciate it xrp fully diluted market
cap $
51.6 billion cardano fully diluted
market cap
$2.2 billion Bitcoin cash $9 billion
Litecoin nearly 7 billion these are
crazy you got all of these top 20 names
okay they have a market cap today of $90
billion and a fully DED market cap of
$122
billion that's a lot of market cap the
question is what do they do the answer
is not very much but we're still going
to try teas out a couple of winners from
this list it's not all bad trust me now
let's look at whale concentration
another very important aspect who owns
the bags flow 98% wh concentration EOS
95% and that's when they start and all
they do over that period of time is all
flow the bags onto retail all flow do
you want to be catching one of those
bags the answer is no all right be
careful out there xlm 89% are we weave
87% Etc the ones that aren't too bad are
the ones in green below Litecoin Bitcoin
cash kaspa and cardano they all have
pretty good scores in this regard so
again everything's mixed but you got to
take everything together and create
these composite scores and that's what
we do here uh next is distance from
alltime high and I know cuz I've studied
this years and years and years of data
when you are extremely far from an
all-time high and you are halfway
through a bull run you are dang you are
a zombie and that's just the hard facts
there is no recovery halfway through the
Bull Run okay yes they might go up a
little bit but there's way faster horses
that you need to be on not on these
things so the ones I have listed here
Flo EOS algr Elon Mina tasos Bitcoin
cash bsv xlm Theta cardano xrp eum
classic Phantom Litecoin
Monero not looking good now on the
bright side R weave stacks and Caspa are
are closer to their alltime highs which
is good uh but when you are 98% away
from your alltime
high might as well just pull the plug as
they say now let's look at a couple of
the big names and dig into some other
details again we are in the hype of
crazy crypto season and then you have
cardano daily active address is down 40%
over the last 90
days
scary all chains daily activus are going
up this one fell 40% not good okay I'm
not being hard on cardano I know the
people are lovely and everything else
but out of the gate three years ago I
could spot the stuff that was going on
with this chain cardano fees 90 days
down
50% scary when there's no fees there's
no income coming in and it's like a mall
you can't have a shopping mall with no
rental income think of it that way just
popped into my head let's look at
another one xrp nearly $1 of $1 million
Mark cap per daily active user and it's
not a layer one layer two per se thank
you ban for coming it's
different but still insane value ation
and that puppy xrp Ripple has been
diluting inflating dumping tokens on
retail for eight years and they're not
stopping they nearly have $50 billion in
escrow waiting for you that's absolute
price suppression these are the hard
truths that people are too lazy to look
into all right what else do we got
Phantom okay let's look at phantom
phantom changes with a new upgrade
called Sonic the question is will this
shake things up they believe this new
upgrade will take the speed up to 2,000
transactions per second and time to
finality 700 to 900 milliseconds quick
not bad not bad at all and with that you
can do a lot for sure there is a problem
however
adoption you could have the capability
of doing a million TPS but if there's
only 10 people in your chain it doesn't
matter okay so the hardest part and I
said this in the beginning is adoption
that's why I focus on things like where
the developers are going to spend their
time what's the breath of daps how many
users are there how many activities do
they do per day across how many daps
that's what's important when we compare
Salon to Phantom and Phantom is great
and they've got big plans but I said
here even if they get to a Max of 10,000
TPS not 2,000 which is in the Sonic it's
still not enough the daily transactions
are too low daily active users need to
grow a hell of a lot we're talking 1,
1600% to get on par need nearly 17x to
get on par with salana to get there so
the question is can it make it
theoretically yes but this Sonic upgrade
is not is not cuz the question I always
get oh the new upgrade is going to make
it the new salana no it is not okay fact
that's it
hope is not a strategy R weave number
one number two I mean it maybe has a
chance there are now five billion pieces
of data stored permanently on chain with
r weave 320 more are being added every
second well that's great and yes they do
have some transactions per second
happening but it is a storage
vehicle and I tried to get the amount of
pedabytes of storage on there couldn't
find it anyway the point is it is being
used it has a chance and some of the
scores we covered before are okay we
will check our weave out on the ATR
model as well in a minute as well as
Phantom why is ICP on the list we have a
lot of people by the way one of my best
metrics that I found to be absolutely
reliable the more a chain is pumped and
the
more it is pumped by scammers and the
more people that have dedicated videos
around a chain the higher the
probability is it's a scam okay Pumpers
beware the Pumpers all right find people
that have already made their money and
they don't need to use YouTube to make
money you are the
product okay and I'm sorry for these
firm words but this is the amount of
stuff that I see pumped and shield it's
almost as bad as 2000 and 2000
or 2020 and 2021 getting all my years
mixed up so let's talk about ICP heavily
pumped critics argue
that iccp blockchain has not
demonstrated significant real world use
cases or applications that would drive
demand for its native token the ICP coin
and the lack of utility is seen as a
factor in its classification as a zombie
chain also the technology people say
it's the best technology in the world no
many experts claim the underlying
technology of ICP is very very outdated
compared to newer blockchains and they
have the newer blockchains have much
more security features scalability
features Etc and this technological
stagnation or Tech debt also attributes
to ICP zombie
status and lack of development there are
concerns that the development and
Innovation on ICB have not kept pace
with other blockchain projects and this
could lead to a decline in interest from
other developers again zombie chain
label these are basic things you need to
know about your chain do not trust the
person touting the chain on a YouTube
channel or on Twitter or anywhere else
do your research I'm laying it all out
for you so you can do it yourself next
is kaspa heavily
pumped very aggressive team there as
well so this is from from what it's
worth pretty sure Casa doesn't actually
solve the tril of crypto and as soon as
they build daps on top of the network
its security is compromised they cannot
do complex stable coin region consensus
Etc within one second I expected to be
safe so there are no daps on kaspa okay
but it has a big market cap and a big
price and it has done
well but ask yourself why okay is it
going to be the Bitcoin and ethereum
killer that they claim it is the answer
is no that's proof for work as well so
um
EOS if beardy is in the audience that's
he makes jokes about this all the time
it's just been a disaster since 2018 and
a lot of the others we simply don't even
need talk about okay we're going to now
go switch to the a TI model which I
wanted to build something that would
tell me if a chain had any signs of Life
think of it like the ekj monitor in the
hospital goes beep with your heart rate
and stuff that's what this was
originally designed to do and it became
a lot more complex with a lot more
functionality but we're going to now
jump into what I call the zombie
identifier ATR but it's also a powerful
training tool so let me see if I can
switch over my little screen
and hopefully you can see this all right
I'm going to blast through these pretty
quickly the first one is cardano and the
way you read this
chart is it has
layers uh and I I I'm kind of juggling a
lot of bullets here so I can't really
see the comments but thank you as well
crypto dinosaur you are amazing so think
of it as layers those level zero level
one level two 3 4 5 and six these levels
can change depending on when it hits a
new all-time high and as I mentioned
before we are halfway through a bull
market Bitcoin I'm showing you is the
first example of where you want your
token to kind of be at least above level
three or level four this much into a
bull run which means for example if
you're level three you know you're
you're halfway from the bottom to
alltime high in that particular range so
Bitcoin is now at level 5.5 nearly at
top level six is the new alltime high
which is
73,800 approximately and we're at 64,000
right now so I'm going to start off with
the very first token and hope
everybody's tracking right now and by
the way the ATR model has a whole bunch
of different toggles and switches uh you
can flip from Trend to deviation I like
trend for most of the cryptos deviation
works great for FX and you can Auto
anchor I'm using the auto anchor
functionality here but we can also drag
it if it's not up to date so the first
token in the box they're alphabetical
this is cardano you'll see cardano is
between level zero and level one I would
describe this as a zombie ladies and
gentlemen second in the Box aland it's
about level 0.3 it's a total zombie and
people have a lot of faith thank you
Sean as well R weave this is good all
right we're at Le just just above level
two right now as we speak H long way way
to level six which is 92 bucks but at
least at $36 there are signs of life
there's signs of adoption this one is
alive not a zombie Bitcoin cash a fork
of Bitcoin and here I need to kind of
drag
the well it doesn't matter any but here
Bitcoin cash because there's so much
confusion in the marketplace a lot of
people believe this is actually Bitcoin
so they buy it instead of Bitcoin or
this think it's a cheaper Bitcoin oh I
can get this version of Bitcoin for 468
bucks I don't have to spend
64,000 yeah I'm going to buy this one
maybe that's what keeps it
inflated I don't know but that's alive
not dead I would not touch it in a
million years and never have bsv another
one this is now just above level 1.5 I
consider this hanging on but people are
realizing especially since I think
Bitcoin Jesus was arrested the guy
behind this for um he was arrested this
week coincidentally interesting to see
anyway we'll move on from there not good
Elon level 0.3 zombie EOS level
0.5 zombie ethereum classic level two
it's alive but
technically uh should not really be here
and just to clarify as well in case you
missed it the Red Shadow is the bare
Market in the background Weir you're
deep deep deep into the bull market this
is flow Flo is about level 0.1 most dead
no adoption killed by other chains and
other nft platforms Phantom just below
level one technically it is a zombie but
maybe the Sonic upgrade can help it
it'll definitely and I've always said
Phantom is a lot better than say a
cardano or something but trading at a
fraction of the market cap but still is
it going to make it long term not with
that radical radical changes
ICP ICP is just beyond dead and has been
for a long time uh and I know people say
oh but it's done really well like if we
zoom in you'll see it's just below level
one so level 0.9 Dead zombie and it
has is it down I think it's 99% from the
oldtime highs but that's ICP and people
love it it's just not to make it so here
we are this is another one this is Caspa
relative new token launched at the end
of the bare market and it's done well
very well but way off the highs let me
see if sometimes if there's not enough
data you can't get a full set of levels
for the ATR because it's so new but
that's Caspa so that is not dead
Litecoin almost dead level
1.2 way off the alltime highs of
389 as now at 80 would I touch it not in
a Million Years Mina level 0.5 dead
Stacks did really well because it's
writing the code tailes of Bitcoin but
it is extremely
overvalued okay as we covered before uh
but it's not dead per this chart Theta
level
1.1 hanging in there but competitive
competition will kill it excellent
level one dead Monero alive not bad it's
up a level 2.3 2.4 and privacy coins are
a thing but they'll never attract
institutional money therefore I don't
touch them xrp the gift that keeps on
giving level just under level two way
off the all-time highs of whatever it
was two or three bucks and you see all
the pump saying it's going to $10 and
$100 in fact I've had conversations with
people on Discord believing that
and I just can't get through to them so
you
know they're a polished outfit and the
very last one in the Box tasos level 0.4
dead okay now so from that we do have a
conclusion let me see if I can get back
to my screen here we are sorry that took
a bit of time and I'm back so I do have
a little conclusion everybody of all of
those tokens I just went through and I'm
exhausted it's been a really hard week
so thank you for bearing with me maybe
two have a chance maybe two are half
investable those are
Phantom and that shouldn't be used AR
that should be R weave a not ATR ATR is
the product I don't know how that got in
there did tell you I was tired wasn't I
the big lesson for everybody is do not
be a bag holder okay the way it works in
crypto guys that get in early the whales
the Pumpers they get discounted tokens
and their job is to influence you to buy
them and then they offload on you okay
that's how the game works the quicker
you realize that or you probably realize
it but you don't think it's happening to
your actual
token don't be a bag holder everybody do
not do not be a bag holder that model I
just walked you through shows you what's
going to happen and we can come back to
this video in a year's time at the end
of the bull market or 18 months time and
see exactly what happened and yes they
may go up a little bit but nothing like
what the winners will do all right the
winners take most everybody so sorry for
that little piece of hard love
but it needs to be told nobody else
tells it thank you all for coming thank
you to the mods in the chat too catch
you all tomorrow for the big Q&A which I
start working on now actually started on
the last night it's going to be a fun
one and we have other cool things
happening too thank you T D Tesla thank
you Sean Donley and everybody watching
hit the like and the way out apologies
if one of your tokens was on the Forbes
list but I'm actually grateful to Forbes
for taking the courage to do this
because when I first started this I was
the only one to do it now I'm glad to
see other people step up and call things
as they are to try I protect retail
investors thanks all take care
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