See what three degrees of global warming looks like

The Economist

30 Oct 202116:23

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the potentially catastrophic consequences of a 3°C global temperature increase, highlighting the significant impact on weather patterns, sea levels, and agriculture. It emphasizes that children born today face a heightened risk of extreme weather events due to the warming already experienced since the industrial revolution. The script illustrates the real-life effects through the story of Minara, a climate refugee from Bangladesh, and explores the global implications, including the vulnerability of cities and small-scale farmers. It also addresses the socio-economic repercussions, such as increased migration and resource competition, and the potential for societal collapse in some regions. The importance of mitigation and adaptation strategies is stressed, with a call to action to reduce emissions and prevent the 3°C scenario from becoming a reality.

Takeaways

🌡️ A global temperature rise of 3°C could lead to catastrophic consequences such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation.
🌍 Since the industrial revolution, the Earth's temperature has already risen between 1.1°C and 1.3°C, with children today facing seven times more extreme weather than their grandparents.
🏙️ Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their denser populations and the potential for magnified climate events.
🌾 Small-scale farmers, who produce a third of the global food supply, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, such as longer and more severe dry seasons.
🏞️ A 3°C increase in temperature could result in desertification, rising sea levels, and a significant drop in annual rainfall in certain regions.
🌊 Coastal areas with populations living less than 10 meters above sea level face the threat of displacement due to rising sea levels and increased storm surges.
🏭 Wealthier cities have the means to adapt to climate change, but those that are unprepared could face severe challenges in a 3°C world.
🌡️ The human body has a limit to tolerating high wet-bulb temperatures, beyond which heat cannot be effectively dissipated, leading to potential fatalities.
🌳 Diversifying agriculture and implementing physical barriers like seawalls are some of the adaptation strategies that can help mitigate the effects of climate change.
📉 Efforts on mitigation and working towards negative emissions are crucial to prevent the planet's temperature from reaching 3°C, which would be disastrous.
⏰ Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions are projected to rise, making the likelihood of a 3°C warmer world uncomfortably high unless more action is taken.

Q & A

What is the significance of a 3°C global temperature increase?
-A 3°C global temperature increase would be catastrophic, leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, and potentially devastating wildfires. It would have a profound impact on ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies worldwide.
How much has the Earth warmed since the industrial revolution?
-Since the industrial revolution, the Earth has warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C, which has already led to significant changes in climate patterns and weather-related disasters.
What are the potential consequences of a 3°C temperature rise for children born today?
-Children born today are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather events than their grandparents due to the increased likelihood of climate-related disasters such as heatwaves, floods, and storms.
What is the current state of climate migrants in Bangladesh?
-The slums of Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, are filling up with climate migrants who have lost their homes due to rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting Himalayan glaciers. Many have fled areas like Bhola District, which has been severely impacted by these climate-related changes.
What does climate scientist Joeri Rogelj's work entail?
-Joeri Rogelj has spent the last ten years modeling future climate scenarios for the United Nations. His projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists globally and represent the state of the art in our current knowledge of climate change.
What is the likelihood of reaching a 3°C global temperature increase by the end of the century under current policies?
-Under current policies, there is at least a one-in-four chance that we would hit 3°C by the end of the century according to Joeri Rogelj's models.
How might a 3°C temperature rise affect cities and their populations?
-A 3°C rise would affect everyone, including those in wealthy cities. Cities like Paris and Berlin could experience more extreme heatwaves, and places like New York could face frequent storm-surges that could turn parts of the city desolate. Cities may also magnify and intensify climate events due to their density and infrastructure.
What is the impact of climate change on smallholders in Central America's 'Dry Corridor'?
-Smallholders in Central America's 'Dry Corridor' are experiencing longer and more severe dry seasons, making it harder to grow crops like corn and beans. This has led to increased poverty and malnutrition among children, with nearly two-thirds of smallholders in the region now living in poverty.
What are the potential consequences of a 3°C temperature rise for coastal regions?
-A 3°C rise could spell disaster for coastal inhabitants, with global sea levels potentially climbing by half a meter from 2005 levels by 2100. Low-lying cities like Lagos could see a significant portion of their population displaced, and rising waters are already affecting communities like the village of Togoru in Fiji.
How does a 3°C global temperature increase affect the potential for societal collapse?
-In a 3°C world, climate extremes could lead some places to the brink of societal collapse due to increased competition for resources like water, exacerbated national tensions, and the mass displacement of people due to climate disasters.
What is the importance of mitigation and adaptation efforts in preventing a 3°C world?
-Mitigation efforts, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and working towards negative emissions, are crucial to prevent the planet from reaching a 3°C temperature increase. Adaptation efforts can reduce suffering but will not eliminate it; thus, preventing a 3°C increase is the best strategy to avoid global trouble.
What is the current trajectory of greenhouse-gas emissions according to existing pledges?
-Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions are still set to rise by 16% from 2010 levels by 2030, which underscores the urgency of immediate and more drastic measures to reduce emissions and prevent a 3°C world.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Global Warming Impacts and Consequences

This paragraph discusses the significant effects of a 3°C global temperature increase, which could lead to catastrophic outcomes such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. It highlights that the Earth has already warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C since the industrial revolution, with children today facing seven times higher likelihood of encountering extreme weather compared to their grandparents. The narrative also touches on the real-life experiences of climate migrants, such as Minara from Bangladesh, who has been forced to flee her home due to the effects of climate change. The paragraph underscores the urgency of addressing climate change to prevent such disastrous scenarios.

05:03

🏙️ City and Rural Vulnerability to Climate Change

The second paragraph emphasizes the varying levels of preparedness and vulnerability of cities and rural areas to a 3°C world. It points out that while many developed cities have not yet faced severe consequences, rural areas and small-scale farmers are disproportionately affected. The text introduces Israel Ramírez Rivera, a smallholder from Guatemala, who is struggling with the extended and more severe dry seasons due to climate change. The paragraph also covers the increased likelihood of severe droughts in certain regions and the potential for rising sea levels to displace coastal populations, as exemplified by the village of Togoru in Fiji.

10:06

🌡️ Escalating Climate Extremes and Human Survival

This paragraph delves into the escalating climate extremes that would come with a 3°C world, focusing on the potential for deadly heat conditions, particularly in urban areas and the tropics. It outlines the concept of wet-bulb temperature, a measure of heat and humidity, and the human body's inability to cool down under such conditions. The text also discusses the potential for societal collapse and increased migration due to climate disasters, leading to greater competition for resources like water. It concludes with a brief mention of adaptation strategies, such as air conditioning and diversifying agriculture, but notes that these measures have limits and cannot entirely prevent the suffering that would come with such a drastic temperature increase.

15:06

🌱 Mitigation Efforts to Prevent a 3°C World

The final paragraph stresses the importance of mitigation efforts to prevent the world from reaching a 3°C temperature rise. It notes the current trajectory of greenhouse-gas emissions, which are still projected to rise, and the need for more aggressive action to keep the 3°C scenario as fiction. The paragraph encourages a shift towards negative emissions technologies and a greater focus on reducing emissions to avoid the grim reality of a 3°C global temperature increase.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Global Warming

Global warming refers to the long-term increase in Earth's average surface temperature due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes. In the video, it is emphasized that a rise of 3°C in global temperatures would have catastrophic consequences, including more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. The script mentions that the Earth has already warmed between 1.1°C and 1.3°C since the industrial revolution, highlighting the urgency of addressing this issue.

💡Climate Migrants

Climate migrants are individuals who are forced to leave their homes due to changes in local climate that make living conditions unsustainable, such as rising sea levels, desertification, or increased frequency of extreme weather events. The video script tells the story of Minara, who had to flee from Bhola District in Bangladesh to Dhaka because of the effects of climate change, illustrating the human impact of global warming.

💡Extreme Weather

Extreme weather refers to unusual and often dangerous meteorological events, such as heatwaves, droughts, storms, and heavy precipitation. The video emphasizes that a 3°C increase in global warming would significantly increase the likelihood and severity of these events, which would have disastrous effects on agriculture, human health, and the overall environment.

💡Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is the increase in the volume of water in the world's oceans, leading to a rise in sea levels. This is caused by melting ice sheets and glaciers, as well as the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. The video discusses the potential for sea levels to rise by half a meter by 2100 if global temperatures increase by 3°C, which would threaten coastal cities and communities, leading to displacement and loss of life.

💡Desertification

Desertification is the process by which fertile land becomes desert, typically as a result of drought, deforestation, or inappropriate agricultural practices. The video script mentions desertification as one of the consequences of a 3°C global temperature increase, which would lead to the loss of arable land and contribute to food insecurity.

💡Wet-Bulb Temperature

Wet-bulb temperature is a measure that combines the effects of heat and humidity. It is significant because it represents the temperature at which the human body can no longer cool itself through sweating. The video warns that if global warming reaches 3°C, many regions, including cities like Dhaka, could experience dangerous wet-bulb temperatures, which could lead to heat-related illnesses and death.

💡Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change adaptation refers to actions taken to prepare for and adjust to the effects of climate change. The video discusses various forms of adaptation, such as air conditioning, diversifying agriculture, and building seawalls. It emphasizes that while adaptation can reduce suffering, it cannot eliminate the negative impacts of a significantly warmer world.

💡Mitigation

Mitigation in the context of climate change involves efforts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to remove these gases from the atmosphere. The video stresses the importance of increasing mitigation efforts to prevent the global temperature from reaching 3°C and to work towards negative emissions, which could help reduce the temperature after it peaks.

💡Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions are the release of gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, agriculture, and deforestation. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to global warming. The video notes that despite existing pledges, emissions are still projected to rise, which would exacerbate climate change.

💡Smallholders

Smallholders are small-scale farmers who typically own or manage farms that are less than two hectares in size. The video script highlights that smallholders, who produce about a third of the global food supply, are particularly vulnerable to climate change. It tells the story of Israel Ramírez Rivera, a smallholder in Guatemala, whose crops are becoming harder to grow due to changing climate conditions.

💡Water Conflict

Water conflict refers to disputes that arise from competing claims on water resources, often exacerbated by scarcity caused by climate change. The video mentions the potential for increased water conflicts in a 3°C world, such as the tensions between Turkey, Iraq, India, and Pakistan over shared rivers, which could lead to societal instability and even collapse.

Highlights

A global temperature increase of 3°C could lead to catastrophic consequences such as heatwaves, droughts, extreme precipitation, and fires.

Since the industrial revolution, Earth's temperature has already risen between 1.1°C and 1.3°C.

Children born today are seven times more likely to face extreme weather events than their grandparents.

Climate inaction has led to slums in Bangladesh's capital filling up with climate migrants.

Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj's models show a one-in-four chance of hitting 3°C by the end of the century under current policies.

Even if all policy promises are kept, there's a one-in-20 chance of reaching 3°C warming by the end of the century.

A 3°C rise would affect everyone, with wealthy cities like Paris and Berlin also facing extreme heatwaves.

Cities can magnify and intensify climate events, making them more vulnerable to disasters.

Smallholders, who produce a third of the global food supply, are particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Severe droughts in Central America are now four times more likely due to climate change.

By 2100, global sea levels could rise by half a meter, threatening coastal cities like Lagos.

Rising sea levels are causing villages in Fiji to be swallowed by the sea, with over half the village already disappeared.

A 3°C world could lead to deadly wet-bulb temperatures, beyond which the human body cannot effectively cool itself.

Climate change could cause established migration patterns to change, with more people moving to cities.

Increased competition for resources like water could lead to national tensions and potential conflicts.

Adaptation measures such as air conditioning and diversifying agriculture can reduce suffering, but won't eliminate it.

The best way to deal with a 3°C world is to prevent it from happening through increased mitigation efforts and working towards negative emissions.

Despite existing pledges, greenhouse-gas emissions are still projected to rise by 16% by 2030 if more isn't done to reduce them.