ETH / BTC Outlook

Summary

In the video, the speaker discusses the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) valuation, expressing a bearish outlook based on monetary policy and historical trends. They note that ETH/BTC has been in a downtrend, often hitting lower highs, and hasn't shown signs of a shift to higher lows and highs, which would indicate a trend change. The speaker highlights that the last cycle's bottom for ETH/BTC coincided with a shift from quantitative tightening to easing by the Federal Reserve. They also discuss the potential impact of an Ethereum ETF approval on the market, suggesting that speculation around this event could lead to a temporary rally. However, without a broader monetary policy shift, they anticipate a continued downtrend for ETH/BTC, possibly bottoming out in the summer. The speaker also touches on the concept of Bitcoin dominance and its correlation with consumer interest, suggesting that a decrease in social interest during the summer months could lead to a final capitulation for altcoin pairs against Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker has been bearish on Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin (BTC) due to macroeconomic trends and monetary policy.
• 🔄 ETH/BTC valuation has been in a downtrend, and the speaker expects it to continue until there's a shift in monetary policy.
• ➡️ Historically, ETH/BTC has bottomed after the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has not yet occurred in the current cycle.
• 🔽 ETH/BTC has been making lower highs, and the speaker does not expect the trend to reverse until there's a change in monetary policy.
• 🤔 The speaker is cautious about the potential approval of an Ethereum ETF, stating that it might not necessarily lead to a sustained uptrend in ETH/BTC valuation.
• 📈 There has been a recent move up in ETH/BTC, but the speaker attributes it to speculation rather than a fundamental shift.
• 🔮 The speaker anticipates that ETH/BTC might have one final bounce before a true capitulation, which could coincide with the summer months.
• 💹 The speaker believes that Bitcoin dominance could increase further, especially if there's a final surge in the summer, reflecting a shift from higher-risk assets to lower-risk assets.
• 📊 The speaker suggests that the current bounce in ETH/BTC might be a temporary countertrend rally before the final capitulation, based on historical patterns.
• 🌐 The speaker's view is not influenced by the Ethereum network upgrade (the Merge) but rather by broader economic factors and regulatory pressures.
• ⏳ The speaker expects a potential bottom for ETH/BTC to be around 0.03 to 0.04, following a possible rejection of the spot ETF and a shift towards looser monetary policy.

Q & A

What is the current stance of the speaker on Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin (BTC) valuation?

The speaker remains bearish on the ETH/BTC valuation, expecting it to continue in a downtrend until there is a shift in monetary policy.

What historical event is the speaker referencing to support their bearish stance on ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker refers to the last cycle when ETH/BTC bottomed out after the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July 2019 and the shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing.

What recent development has the speaker observed in the ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker has observed a recent move up in the ETH/BTC valuation over the last couple of days, which they interpret as a lower high in the ongoing downtrend.

What does the speaker believe could potentially change their bearish view on ETH/BTC?

The speaker suggests that a shift in monetary policy, such as a change from tightening to easing, could potentially change their bearish view.

What is the significance of the 'bull market support band' in the speaker's analysis?

The 'bull market support band' is a technical analysis tool used by the speaker to guide the expected downward trajectory of ETH/BTC. It has historically marked significant support levels that, when broken, signal further declines.

How does the speaker relate the potential approval of an Ethereum ETF to the current move in ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker speculates that the current move up in ETH/BTC could be due to traders making a low-probability bet that an Ethereum ETF might be approved, which could potentially mark a bottom if approved.

What is the speaker's expectation for the duration of the current ETH/BTC move?

The speaker expects the current move to be short-lived, similar to previous ETH/BTC moves, which typically take place over one to two weeks.

What is the speaker's view on the risk profile of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin?

The speaker views Ethereum as a higher-risk asset compared to Bitcoin due to its exposure to regulatory pressures and its relatively shorter history in the market.

What is the speaker's long-term outlook on Ethereum?

Despite the bearish short-term view, the speaker is optimistic about Ethereum's long-term success, believing it will be successful once the monetary policy shifts.

What is the speaker's view on the impact of the Bitcoin halving on ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker believes that the Bitcoin halving could potentially mark a final move up for ETH/BTC before a final capitulation into the summer, similar to what happened in 2019.

What is the speaker's prediction for the potential bottoming out of ETH/BTC valuation?

The speaker predicts that ETH/BTC could bottom out in the range of 0.03 to 0.04, following a potential rejection of the Ethereum ETF and a shift in monetary policy.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Ethereum vs Bitcoin Valuation Trends

The speaker discusses the downtrend in the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) valuation, attributing it to macro factors such as monetary policy. They reference the historical pattern where ETH/BTC bottomed after the Federal Reserve's shift from quantitative tightening to easing in 2019. The speaker remains bearish without a similar policy shift and notes recent ETH/BTC increases as 'lower highs.' They also discuss potential signs that could indicate a change in their bearish view, including a shift to higher lows and highs, and the importance of the bull market support band.

05:01

🎢 ETH/BTC's Historical Patterns and Speculative Bounces

The paragraph delves into the possibility of a final bounce for ETH/BTC before a full capitulation, which the speaker anticipates to occur over the summer. They acknowledge the potential for error and discuss the importance of the bull market support band in guiding ETH/BTC's descent. The speaker also explores speculative trading behavior, particularly around the potential approval of an Ethereum ETF, and the impact of such an event on market sentiment and price action.

10:02

🤔 Analyzing ETH's Risk Profile Against Bitcoin

This section examines why Ethereum is considered a riskier asset than Bitcoin, especially under tighter monetary policies. The speaker argues that higher-risk assets like Ethereum tend to underperform lower-risk assets like Bitcoin in such environments. They also discuss the impact of regulatory pressures and the market cap as indicators of risk, suggesting that Bitcoin's longer history and larger market cap make it a safer play.

15:03

📈 Potential for a Final Bounce Before Summer Capitulation

The speaker contemplates the likelihood of a final upward move for ETH/BTC before a significant downturn in the summer. They discuss the speculative nature of this bounce, potentially linked to the possibility of an Ethereum ETF approval. The speaker also provides a technical analysis of the ETH/BTC chart, suggesting that a move back to the bull market support band could be followed by a gradual decline if the ETF is not approved.

20:03

🔄 Bitcoin Dominance and Its Impact on ETH/BTC Valuation

The focus here is on Bitcoin's dominance in the market and its effect on the ETH/BTC valuation. The speaker predicts a continued uptrend in Bitcoin's dominance, suggesting that it might peak in the summer as social interest in cryptocurrency wanes. They also discuss the historical context of Bitcoin's dominance and how it has shifted in response to monetary policy changes, influencing the overall trend in ETH/BTC valuations.

25:04

🔮 Predicting ETH/BTC's Future Movements

The speaker provides a detailed forecast for the ETH/BTC valuation, suggesting it might bottom out around the 0.03 to 0.04 range following the potential rejection of an Ethereum spot ETF. They discuss the possibility of a final rally for ETH/BTC before a broader market capitulation, drawing parallels to past cycles. The speaker also addresses potential counterpoints to their view, emphasizing that their perspective is primarily based on monetary policy.

30:04

📉 Expectations for ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance

The speaker concludes with their expectations for the ETH/BTC valuation and Bitcoin's dominance. They predict that ETH/BTC will top out near the bull market support band and then decline, potentially in response to economic data or Federal Reserve announcements. The speaker also suggests that altcoin Bitcoin pairs might experience a durable breakdown before ETH/BTC, leading to a possible rate cut and a shift in monetary policy that could mark the beginning of an uptrend for ETH/BTC.

Keywords

💡Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum is an open-source blockchain platform that enables the creation of smart contracts and decentralized applications. In the video, Ethereum is discussed in relation to its valuation against Bitcoin, which is a key theme as the speaker explores the potential future trends and comparisons with past market cycles.

💡Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, which operates on a decentralized ledger system called blockchain. The video focuses on the valuation of Ethereum in comparison to Bitcoin, examining market trends and potential future movements.

💡Valuation

Valuation refers to the process of determining the worth of an asset or company, often used in the context of investments. In the video, the speaker discusses the eth Bitcoin valuation, which is the value of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, and how it has been trending in a macro downtrend.

💡Macro Downtrend

A macro downtrend refers to a long-term decrease in market prices or values. The video mentions that the eth Bitcoin valuation has been in a macro downtrend, indicating a sustained period of decline in Ethereum's value relative to Bitcoin.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy involves the actions of a central bank that attempt to influence economic activity through the adjustment of interest rates, money supply, and credit. The speaker's analysis of eth Bitcoin valuation is heavily influenced by their views on monetary policy, particularly the shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing.

💡Quantitative Tightening

Quantitative tightening is the process where a central bank reduces money supply in the economy, usually by selling off assets it previously purchased. In the video, the speaker refers to the historical context of eth Bitcoin bottoming out around the time the Federal Reserve shifted from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing.

💡Quantitative Easing

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy where a central bank creates new money and uses it to buy government bonds or other financial assets to inject money into the economy. The speaker discusses how the shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing marked a significant change that influenced the eth Bitcoin valuation.

💡Risk Assessment

Risk assessment is the process of identifying, analyzing, and evaluating risk. The video discusses Ethereum as a higher risk asset compared to Bitcoin, particularly during periods of tighter monetary policy, which is a key factor in the speaker's bearish outlook on eth Bitcoin valuation.

💡ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)

An ETF is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product, with shares that are tradeable on a stock exchange. The video script mentions speculation around the potential approval of an Ethereum ETF, which is considered a significant event that could impact the eth Bitcoin valuation.

💡Bull Market Support Band

The bull market support band refers to a level of price that has historically provided support during a bull market. In the video, the speaker uses this concept to analyze the historical performance of eth Bitcoin and to predict potential future support levels.

💡Capitulation

Capitulation in financial markets refers to a point where investors, after a period of decline, give up and sell their holdings, often leading to a sharp drop in prices. The speaker discusses the potential for a final capitulation in the eth Bitcoin valuation, particularly in the context of the summer months and changing monetary policy.

Highlights

Discussion on Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) valuation, focusing on the macro downtrend and bearish sentiment.

ETH/BTC bottomed after the first rate cut in July 2019, aligning with the shift from quantitative tightening to easing.

The speaker remained bearish on ETH/BTC in Q3 of 2023 due to the lack of a monetary policy shift.

ETH/BTC has been experiencing lower highs, indicating a continued downtrend.

The potential for a final bounce in ETH/BTC before a true capitulation is expected this summer.

The importance of the bull market support band in guiding ETH/BTC down and its rejection in the current trend.

Comparisons between the 2016 and 2019 market moves, noting similarities in patterns.

Speculation that the current move up in ETH/BTC is due to traders betting on a potential ETF approval.

ETH/BTC moves tend to take place over one to two weeks, suggesting short-lived trends.

Expectations for ETH/BTC to top out around 0.053, influenced by the bull market support band.

The merge's impact on ETH/BTC valuation and the transition from proof of work to proof of stake.

The influence of monetary policy on the risk assessment of ETH compared to BTC.

The potential for a final surge in Bitcoin dominance in the summer, mirroring past cycles.

The possibility of a delay in the downtrend of ETH/BTC due to short-term strength following the merge.

The likelihood of ETH/BTC bottoming out in the range of 0.03 to 0.04 following the rejection of the spot ETF.

The anticipation of a rate cut this summer and its potential impact on the capitulation of alt/BTC pairs.

The importance of social interest and consumer behavior in the crypto market, particularly during the summer months.

The speaker's overall bullish stance on Bitcoin dominance and bearish view on ETH/BTC until a shift in monetary policy occurs.

Transcripts

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back

into the

cryptoverse today we're going to talk

about ethereum more specifically we're

going to be discussing the eth Bitcoin

valuation if you guys like the content

make sure you subscribe to the channel

give the video a thumbs up and also

check out intothe cryptoverse premium at

intothe cryptoverse

decom the eth Bitcoin valuation has been

in a macro downtrend for a while and

we've been discussing it for a while and

the reasons that I have been bearish on

the E Bitcoin valuation have just simply

come down

to really two to three things number one

last cycle right at least last cycle we

saw eth Bitcoin bottom out after the

First Rate cut right if you look at the

First Rate cut it happened to be in July

of 2019 and we know that well eth

Bitcoin bottomed out just after that a

couple months after

that we also know too that last cycle

eth Bitcoin bottomed out right around

the same time that the FED shifted from

quantitative

tightening to quantitative easing in

fact if you look at where the actual

shift occurred let me move this up a

little bit so we can see this if you go

from the from quantitative tightening to

quantitative easing you can see that it

actually precisely marked the bottom on

eth Bitcoin in September of 2019 and

this is one of the reasons why I did not

think that it was bottoming out Q3 of

2023 because while it was during the

same time in the cycle we had not seen

that shift in monetary policy and so

that is why I still remained bearish on

eth bitcoin over

here because we had not yet seen that

shift in monetary policy now there has

been a move up by eth Bitcoin over the

last couple of days and so I did want to

at least talk about that at this point

everything that we have seen has been a

lower high right everything that we've

seen by eth Bitcoin all these are just

simply lower highs that a lot of people

got excited about but then ultimately

still resolve to the downside and of

course at some point theoretically

the trend will change and instead of

putting in lower highs you'll start to

see higher lows and higher Highs but

because we haven't seen a shift in

monetary

policy I don't think that phase has yet

arrived now if I'm wrong I want to talk

about what you would be looking for to

to sort of see if my view is starting to

be incorrect what I would say and what I

said in the last video I did on the eth

Bitcoin valuation was essentially this

um my view revolves around the idea that

the bull market support band will guide

eth Bitcoin down right so if we pull up

the bull market support band one of the

things you'll notice here let me

actually get rid of these um the

background on it

um so one of the things you'll

notice right here is that at the very

end of it right at the very end of it

actually I got rid of one of the lines I

didn't want to get rid of

this one at the very end of it we had

one final move back up where it was

ultimately rejected by the bull market

support band now we've made the

comparisons between the 2016 move and

the one in 2019 and the one in 2016

after it broke down it just continued to

capitulate right it didn't really get

any more bounces it just went down but

here after revisiting the range low you

will see that eth Bitcoin got one final

bounce back up to its bull market

support band but it was ultimately

rejected by it in fact if you look at

this you will see some similarities for

instance you can connect this low here

to that low and you'll see something

very similar right there then after that

we put in a high and then a lower high

right here above the bull market support

band and you can see that very similar

pattern right there right right so so

far this this move right

here looks very similar to that one

right there does it not looks pretty

similar the the move was essentially the

same you put in a low and then a lower

low and then you get above the bull

market support band very briefly you

come back down below it you get one and

then you see did the same thing right

here you then get another pop back up

put in a lower high and then go back

into the bu sport band and come back

down to the range low right so we did

that right we did that again we we came

back down to the range low now this time

we actually went below the range

low whereas back over here we did not

before that bounce occurred but

regardless in the last video that I did

on eth bitcoin I said that it is still

possible that we get one final bounce

before eth Bitcoin reaches true and Fin

capitulation this summer again I could

be wrong right I could be wrong and just

because I've been on the right side of

eth Bitcoin for a while doesn't mean

that I will continue to be so we first

have to do away with that idea right I

don't I I could you know it it could

reverse before I'm willing to admit that

it has um but I I do remember this uh

this very similar move last cycle and

while I do believe that price dictates

narrative um or narrative follows price

rather than the other way around one of

the things that I said in the last video

on the eth Bitcoin valuation is that if

you get a move back up to the bull

market support band like you had over

here then the interpretation of it would

would probably be along the lines

something like this the move up will be

speculators dubiously speculating that

the ETF will be approved right it's sort

of this low probability outcome where

some Traders are betting that it it

actually might be approved even though

it's not it doesn't really seem like it

has a high probability again I don't

really know if it's going to be approved

or not I would assume that eventually it

will be but everything that I've seen in

the news um and and what you sort of

people in the industry are saying

they're speculating that it's not going

to be approved in May so if it's not

approved in May then what potentially

could be happening right now is you have

speculators making a a sort of a low

probability

bet that if it gets approved then that

could be the low right just like there

were some investors thinking you know

hey maybe this is the low right but one

of the things you'll notice about a lot

of these eth Bitcoin moves is that they

really take place over like one to two

weeks right this first move right here

that we saw back in January you can see

that it topped out that week week well I

guess it yeah and then it went a lower

high the following week the second top

over here which was a lower high it had

a pretty strong move up but then it

topped out on that on that third week so

they tend to not last very long so if my

view on eth bitcoin is going to continue

to be correct which again there is no

guarantee then I would expect this to

top

out somewhere around

0053 plus or minus you know a few perc

right right because that is ultimately

where the bull market support band is if

you look last cycle at that final bounce

before summer arrived it occurred in

miday right it occurred in miday only a

couple of weeks from

now it actually went above the bull

market support band right and you could

actually maybe even connect these Wicks

here um not not quite but it it it

almost made it back up to it maybe if we

switch to a long scale um it's a little

bit it's a little bit closer but not

even really but you can kind of see that

it was just a lower high the first two

bounces had weekly closes above its bull

market support band but they never saw

follow through the third one while it

had Wicks above it it did not stay above

it for a weekly close so right now the

bull market support band for eth Bitcoin

is

05346 to 0534 so it's basically right

around

0534 0534 is essentially where that is

and

so if this pattern is going to repeat

then I would expect it to not durably go

above

0534 right so you know you would

probably see it stay mostly below the

bulling Market support band with some

occasional Wicks above it if it's going

to play out like it did over here before

final capitulation I will say I'm not

actually basing my view on eth bitcoin

on this pattern right I'm not and I I

know that might sound like a surprise

but I'm not basing it on that I'm just

basing it on on monetary policy that's

basically what I've been basing it on if

you go back to the merge when a lot of

people were more optimistic about eth

Bitcoin and they were calling for the

flipping some of the reasons they were

calling for it were due to the

transition from proof of stake or sorry

from proof of work to proof of stake and

you had you know this deflationary

mechanism and so the speculation was

that this change in demand

or sorry that the change in Supply would

cause the eth Bitcoin valuation to go up

because it's now deflationary right that

was sort of the sort of the expectations

back then at the merge and so ever since

then though we know that it's more than

just a supply side thing because if it

were then maybe you would have expected

it to go up it's also based on demand

which is affected by monetary policy and

my views on E Bitcoin for the last two

and half years my bearish views on eth

bitcoin have had nothing to do with the

fundamental nature of eth or what I

think it might be capable of in the

future it has just to do with the fact

that it's slightly riskier than Bitcoin

and during periods of Tighter and

Tighter monetary policy and high

interest rates my expectation would be

that a higher risk asset would bleed to

a lower risk asset it has nothing to do

with ethereum in enough itself and you

can see the same pattern take place over

multiple different asset classes for

instance the Russell has been bleeding

to the NASDAQ right look at the

Russell been bleeding to the NASDAQ if

you look at companies like

rivan been bleeding to Tesla right it's

just that during these periods these

higher risk assets bleed to lower risk

assets right it's not that Tesla hasn't

gone down it has it's just that rivan

has gone down more so the views on eth

bitcoin it's not a reflection of my

ultimate views on whether it'll be

successful or not I actually think

ethereum will be successful long term

it's more so a reflection of just this

is what happens during Tighter and

Tighter monetary policy is that these

higher risk assets bleed to lower risk

assets and the reason that ethereum is

higher risk than Bitcoin is because it's

more subject to regulatory pressures

than Bitcoin is also bitcoin's been

around longer right it's the first it

was the first one it's been around

longer it stood the test of time longer

than eth and so for that reason it's

riskier also the market has spoken the

market cap of Bitcoin is higher than the

market cap of eth and so yet again

another reason why I think Bitcoin is

ultimately a safer play so because of my

views on monetary policy and the whole

higher for longer Mantra I've been

bearish on eth bitcoin for those reasons

now what ultimately usually causes the

transition from tighter monetary policy

to looser monetary policy is the

breakdown of the Blue Chips right that's

when your the NASDAQ Falls or the uh or

Bitcoin Falls right that's normally what

causes the transition from higher or

from tighter monetary policy to looser

monetary policy if you don't see that

take place then it likely means that

inflation is still an issue and the

consumer is still strong and we have to

keep going higher for longer right but

until you actually see that take place

then the FED doesn't really have a

compelling reason to Pivot now I do

think the FED will probably pivot sooner

than the market thinks they will because

I think we're a lot closer to all

Bitcoin pairs breaking down than the

market thinks it is but this was an

outcome that we suggested was a

potential outcome in the last video now

I could be somewhat sympathetic because

you know anyone who's watching this

video if you're bullish on eth bitcoin

and you watch my last video I said

I think it's going to continue going

down you could have a temporary counter

Trend rally after the having right now

here's the

thing I think this is just a countert

rally that will still resolve to the

downside because of my views on monetary

policy not because of my views on E

however if you have been bullish on E

Bitcoin you're going to look at this and

say well this is the start of a you know

this is a start of something else and so

at this point we don't know we don't

know

but again my interpretation of this move

and I said it in the last video was that

the weakest time for Bitcoin and the the

this the the time where eth could make a

move against Bitcoin will be just after

the having just after the having after

the height wears down just after the

having you could see one final move by

it before the final summer capitulation

just like we did over here in 2019

about two months before the First Rate

cut arrived about two months before the

First Rate cut arrived e Bitcoin had one

final bounce and then It ultimately

faded now what I think's happening as I

said is I think Traders are speculating

there's a low probability outcome that

the ETF could be approved I have no idea

if it's going to be or not right don't

ask me ask someone who's more in line or

in touch with that side of the industry

I have no idea but if that's the case

and it plays out out kind of like these

other local tops have played out then

what you would expect to

see is it stall out around the bull

market support band and then slowly

start to bleed and the reason why that

would be the case is because you get the

initial move up right the people over

here get rewarded for buying into the

fear right into the having we get the

bounce because people are speculating

that it might that the ETF might be

approved right but as the end of May

gets closer and if there's not that

overwhelming evidence that it's going to

be approved then you could start you

could start to see it slowly bleed back

down right as the people who bought it

here potentially take profits on it up

here especially if they're not seeing

the signs that is going to be approved

so again at the end of the day I do

think that the narrative follows the

price but if you were to try if you were

to try to assign a narrative to this

move that's the narrative I would assign

it is that investors are speculating

about ETF approval for East

and if it doesn't look like it's going

to get approved you could see it slowly

bleed back down and then once you have

confirmation that it's being rejected

then you could actually see the

breakdown if it gets approved then that

could completely change the trend right

if you were to Overlay right if we were

to Overlay this

fractal I honestly guys I've done this a

long time and you know the whole

overlaying a fractals thing is is not

really my cup of tea because I've seen

it happen where people make these

fractals especially especially for like

USD valuations of assets where they like

they say well this is what happened last

cycle therefore it's going to happen

this cycle and almost every single time

it never plays out right and often times

it's because of diminishing returns

right I think a lot of people sort of

assume that every cycle we won't have

diminishing returns and then we keep

having it um but they overlay the

fractal from a prior cycle and say well

look this is what's going to happen and

then it doesn't happen but if you do

overlay sort of this fractal here and

you just kind of compress it it seems

like this move over here has been taking

place on a a little bit of a shorter

time frame you can actually see like it

it lines up pretty well right I mean you

have you have a low you get a lower low

you put on a high above the bullmark

sport band and then you put a lower high

and then this is right when you get that

final move back up to the bull market

support band before it comes back down

look at this at the end of May and the

end of May I believe is when we'll have

confirmation on whether that first you

know that first deadline comes up right

about the the the last couple of weeks

of May I don't remember exactly when I

think it was like May May 20 something I

I don't know exactly but

um but then you can kind of see like how

that is it's an almost identical pattern

low lower low high lower high between

those highs go below the bullmark sport

bin same exact thing the highs are above

it you get another move back down below

it and then you get one final move back

up before it capitulates into the summer

potentially bottoming out according to

this into July now in my last video on

eth bitcoin one of the things I said was

that if it just breaks down in April and

you get a similar move that you had in

the last two breakdowns what you would

essentially expect is three red candles

in a row that lead into the breakdown

right that's what we had last couple of

times right so over here you have three

Reds in a row and then the bottom came

here you had three Reds in a row the

bottom occurred the green candle but you

know three Reds in a row that ultimately

marked that final capitulation three

months grueling months in a row where

everyone just finally gave

up to me this move right here looks

really similar to this one right where

you run the

lows and then it ends up maybe even

closing the month green

right kind of looks like that one now

here's the thing because

this has happened right because we've

run the lows and we've come back up that

means that if it's going to play out

like the last two cycles then rather

than bottoming out in June which is what

my base case would have been had we just

seen this breakdown in April because

then we would have just been March April

May and then potentially bottoming out

that following month in June which is

what happened last cycle because we've

run it back

up I got to give I mean look guys the

DJs they've been fighting and you know

I've seen for years how you know the the

consumer will not go down without a

fight and my understanding of crypto alt

Bitcoin pairs they represent the

consumer the strength of the consumer

the stronger the consumer the stronger

the alt Bitcoin pairs the weaker the

consumer the weaker the all Bitcoin

pairs we're all Deens at heart right

we're all Deens at

heart so because this has happened and

we have seen that underlying weakness

short-term weakness by Bitcoin against

eth so the short-term strength of eth

against Bitcoin following the

having I think it delays it by a month

right so then that means if you finally

start this downtrend in May as opposed

to what was already happening then it

kind of kicks the can down the road so

if it were to follow out follow this

pattern it would be here it was June

July and August bottom in September in

this case if we resume the downtrend

next month it would be May June July

with a potential bottom in either July

or in August it would be a bottom in

July if it plays out like this move or

sorry it would be a bottom in August if

it plays out like 2019 it would be a

bottom in July if it plays out like 2016

now what's interesting is you also can

see that in 2022 we had a lot of

weakness by eth Bitcoin in May and June

in fact if you look at Bitcoin dominance

excluding stable coins one of the things

you'll notice here is that it has seen a

surge going into the summer months for

the last three years in fact here it

topped in June and then it had a

slightly higher high in July that was in

2021 in 2022 it hit the top of this

wedge in

June in 2023 we did not hit the top of

the wedge but we did see it surge into

the summer right it surged into the

summer into June and also by the way

dominance had a pullback here near the

end of April and then surge into June

and and then it came back down and then

once again I'm speculating that perhaps

we will see a final surge by dominance

excluding stables and also including

Stables into the summer and here's the

thing if we see that move then and we

come up here originally potentially

going to be June maybe it's going to be

July now I don't know it could still

happen in June I'm not completely closed

off to that idea but that gets you right

if it if it takes place in July that

gets you to about

64.5% excluding stable coins right

excluding Stables right now at 58% so

that's another 6 and a half% above the

current level right let's just say about

6% or so well Bitcoin dominance is at

54% 6% move gets you to 60% % which

again is the the 618 retracement on the

F on the the FIB retracement tool right

it's the 618 which is exactly where it

retraced to last cycle before topping

out just after rate cuts and just after

and and actually right during the time

the FED shifted from quantitative

tightening to quantitative easing and

I'll I'll throw that back up here so

that you can see it right you can see

that's exactly where Bitcoin dominance

topped out was when the Fed pivoted from

quantitative tightening to quantitative

easing so this is why I haven't changed

my view right and like I get it I mean I

I'm sure people are saying all sorts of

stuff right now about about My Views

especially given this this move but guys

I've been really steadfast on my views

on eth bitcoin the entire time and every

single one of these moves has been a

lower high it was never anything

fundamentally against eth that I had it

was just based on monetary policy I

think that after the FED pivots I think

that eth Bitcoin will bottom and then

it'll start an uptrend but because that

hasn't happened

yet I don't think that this trend is

necessarily over one common Counterpoint

that I see and it's it's a fair one I'm

not trying to dismiss it I only bring it

up if it is fair if it's not fair I'm

probably not going to bring it up one

Fair Counterpoint that I see is that

well eth Bitcoin had this top at the

merge so what happened happens if it

bottomed at the having right that's a

fair

statement it's possible right it's

possible but again my view is based on

monetary policy not about these

narratives furthermore another

Counterpoint to it is that eth Bitcoin

did not top at the merge it actually

topped in 2021 so this was actually a

lower high right so that we actually had

a high over here and then we had a lower

high that occurred at the merge so maybe

this is your second to last low at the

having and then the last low could be

due to or could be following rejection

of the spotf I want to be clear right

when I had this view on eth bitcoin back

in you know late 2021 early 2022 it's

not like I thought that final

capitulation would correspond to a

potential rejection of the spot ETF I

have no idea I think it just happens to

be lining up and I think that's what

people might blame if it happens right

if e if the spot ETF is rejected in May

and eth Bitcoin capitulates then I think

that's what's going to be blamed but we

didn't even have that last cycle and it

still happened it still happened so I

don't you know I don't think that that

is necessarily going to that like my

view that I've had has never been

contingent on anything related to the

spot ETF right there's even a there's

even a world where it gets

approved and it still bleeds because

maybe people price in a lot more demand

for the ethereum spot ETF than there

actually is maybe people still prefer

Bitcoin over ethereum because we're

still in tighter monetary policy so I

would argue that my view isn't even

dependent on whether it's approved or

not I hope it is approved honestly I

hope that the ETF is eventually approved

if it's approved in May great I would

prefer I would almost prefer that so we

don't have to talk about it for the next

year but my point is that my view is not

really dependent on that my view is just

dependent on monetary policy and so

far that view has been correct right eth

Bitcoin did not bottom here we took out

that low it did not bottom in October it

did not bottom in January a lot of

people saying it had bottomed

then has it bottomed here maybe I don't

think so though I don't think so I would

say the odds of it bottoming here are a

lot greater than back over here in

January and one of the reasons I said

that was because everyone said well the

next thing to look for is the eth ETF

right you guys remember that when we had

this rally and everyone got excited

because they're like all right well now

now we're going to Rally into the spot

ETF for eth right and I said well guys

we're forgetting one thing right the

having comes before that so while I know

people are getting excited about the eth

ETF the having is going to come first

and that's why eth Bitcoin will likely

go back down and put in a lower low

regardless of whether what happens with

the Spy DTF for eth because the having

is going to come in

April so so we could have a scenario

where you know the people they think

that this is the low because it

corresponds to the Bitcoin having just

like we saw a high at the merge but what

if the final

capitulation right

here corresponds to bad news like the

rejection of the spot

ETF which might actually coincide with

retail showing weakness and the FED

cutting rates and just as that happen

happens as potentially final

capitulation happens into the summer

months just like we've seen the last

three

Summers that is when it finally bottoms

out just after everyone gives up on it I

honestly think it would be somewhat

poetic if e Bitcoin breaks down upon

rejection of the spot ETF and then

everyone then puts on their Maxi hat

just as the Bitcoin dominance trend is

ending this Bitcoin dominance trend has

been going on since May of 2021 now you

might say Ben that's not true Bitcoin

dominance was putting in new lows in

September of 2022 again including

Stables you're right well for this cycle

it wasn't a new low but it was a new low

for this cycle in at the merge but the

dominance view is is based on on all

Bitcoin pairs not stable coins if you

exclude Stables dominance excluding

Stables bottomed in May of 2021 right

this trend has been going on for almost

3 years this may will be three years of

this Bitcoin dominance

uptrend assuming it hasn't topped right

my argument is that it's going to

continue to go up into the summer and

finally top out just as social interest

in the cryptoverse Fades and you can see

I mean you can really see it happening

already if you you know if and by the

way if you look at dominance excluding

Stables we had this exact same move

going into rate Cuts last cycle you'll

see dominance excluding Stables was

putting in lower highs you see that a

high a lower high a lower high and then

guess what happened it swept the high

you see that right here you see how we

swept this high and then after sweeping

the high dominance excluding Stables

came back down as eth Bitcoin got that

final bounce before summer it dominance

excluding Stables swept the high and

then came back down for one final move

and then dominance excluding Stables

then rallied into the summer now look at

what happened

today lower highs by dominance excluding

Stables you sweep the high exactly right

look at that sweep the high and then

it's come back down look back over here

look how much it dropped it dropped from

61% down to 55 a half that was a big

drop back then you know that was a big

drop now I don't think we're going to

see the same magnitude a drop this time

because this spread here was larger than

the current one right this High here was

like almost all the way up to

58% down to 50% right about an 8% swing

between those lows and the highs if you

look over here it was from about

59% down to about 54 right so only about

a 5%

swing so it's compressed

somewhat so while this

pullback was

61 to 55 A5 right so you had about a

what that's a 4 and a half% move 60 or

No 5 and a half% move that's 61 not 60

so 5 1/2% move from 61 down to 55

1/2 here it's already dropped from 59 to

56 and a half right I mean it's and that

doesn't even include what's happened

today this is just based on the last

data point it's actually probably lower

than this right now this is just based

on the last data point that we had but

dominance has gone down today so you

know I mean if it goes from 59 even to

56 so what like that's basically what it

did last time and then it still curled

up it curled back up going into the

summer and then it surged in June and

July and

August here we might have to wait till

June but I think maybe it starts to

Surge in May June July could be June

July August but I think it's probably

going to play out in a very similar

fashion in fact if you connect these

dots it almost looks like we're just

back testing the breakout point right we

can go look at it dominance excluding

Stables on trading

view look at this if we just connect

these dots perhaps it'll yeah I mean

it's a bit handwavy right I'm not

connecting this one because it it it

fits my narrative better not to but I

mean you can kind of see that it's

coming back in and maybe it even goes

below it right maybe it comes back down

to this trend line over

here right we've been holding that trend

line forever and also by the way if you

look at excluding Stables we're still

above the bullmark sport band

right so sorry I clicked on the wrong

thing right we're still above the

bullmark and you can even see there was

another time previously where dominance

excluding Stables got below it we then

got a rally back above it and then we

kind of came back down and held it as

support just as we held the trend line

as support what if the same same thing's

happening right we went below it we then

got a pop back above and now we're just

sort of fading back into it but I'm

guessing that this bull Mark SP is going

to continue to rise here and lift the

dominance with it the dominance

excluding Stables is at around 57 to 57.

38% that's only a half percent lower

than where we currently are right that's

where the 21 we EMA is a half perent

lower than where we currently are if e

Bitcoin get a move to 0.0053 to its

bullmark support Bend there you have it

right there you have dominance excluding

Stables back down to its bullmark sport

band at the same time that eth Bitcoin

gets up to it's bullmark sportband so my

guess is that you're going to see eth

Bitcoin top out here in the next week or

so around the bull market support band

and you could see the turn happen either

around the labor market data released

next week or it could be around the

inflation data released later on in

May and again I mean it also could

theoretically shift at the next fed

meeting which is coming up really soon

so I would I would keep an eye on this

because it seems like it's really

playing out very similar to what

happened over here and I I I can't help

but feel like once again everyone's

potentially falling for that same

Playbook that they fell for in

2019 just before those rate Cuts

arrived so that's my view on the market

could I be wrong absolutely I've been

wrong about many things over the years

this is one one thing that I've um been

on the right side of for the last couple

of years for reasons I've stated based

on monetary policy monetary policy

hasn't shifted therefore my bias on it

Still Remains down I ultimately think

eth Bitcoin is going to bottom out

around3 to 04 I don't know exactly where

but that's what I would ultimately

expect um and I think if it gets down

there there's going to be a lot of

people calling for it to go back to 01

02 but I don't think it's going to go

that low I think 03 to 04 following

rejection of the spot ETF is likely the

bottoming process for the eth Bitcoin

valuation and I think that the current

move by eth Bitcoin is sort of the last

harra just like it got in 2019 before

rate Cuts arrived before It ultimately

capitulated down into the summer so that

is my view it has nothing to do with

spot ETF I tried to provide some

narrative around it if you want a

narrative to go with the chart but I

don't really think you need one it looks

the same thing like it did last cycle I

said it's possible we get one final

rally back up to the bullmark sport band

at around 053 to 054 before capitulation

of the summer it seems like that's

what's happening just because it's

happening doesn't mean I'm right it

could be that it is a low but in order

for confirmation of that you would need

to see Bitcoin do or you would need to

see e Bitcoin get above its bullmark

sport band and then start holding it as

support right and if you don't see that

then I still think it's just going to be

yet another lower high that everyone

once again got excited about that

ultimately resolved to the downside the

last thing I will say is that last cycle

that eth Bitcoin

capitulation occurred it finalized

after alt Bitcoin pairs broke down so

one thing about this bounce is that alt

Bitcoin pairs had not yet broken down

right they haven't had a weekly close

below their range low so I think that

you're seeing something very similar

with all Bitcoin pairs that you saw over

here one final rally up to the bullmark

wor Banner it didn't even make it to the

bullmark wor band back then and then it

came down right I think you're seeing

something like that happen once again

with all Bitcoin pairs one final push

before capitulation down to the range

lows this summer and because this is

happening because of this Bounce by eth

Bitcoin now maybe you do see all Bitcoin

pairs durably break down before eth

Bitcoin that's what happened last cycle

anyways all Bitcoin pairs durably broke

down the week of June 24th eth Bitcoin

broke down the week of

July what was it July 7th um July 8th

right so the eth Bitcoin broke down two

weeks after alt Bitcoin pairs did so

with this move by eth Bitcoin perhaps

that's something one thing I was looking

at is while e Bitcoin did get a close

below the range low from June 2022 a

weekly close below it what's kind of

interesting is that it did not get a

weekly close below this recent low right

this recent low was at

079 and then the weekly close was at

0.0048 so perhaps that is is something

to sort of take note of again my

expectation is that it will still break

down all Bitcoin pairs might actually

break down first just like they did last

cycle in a durable fashion right I mean

to some degree e Bitcoin already did

break down because it got a weekly close

below .49 but I think this is the final

the final

push before the final capitulation into

the

summer as we get into potential rate

Cuts I don't know probably not in May

right I don't think we're going to get a

rate cut in May but I I could see a rate

cut coming sometime this summer um

probably not a huge one unless something

catastrophic happens right but it could

be just sort of of like a 25 basis point

rate cut could be a 50 basis point rate

cut in fact in 2019 we got a rate cut in

July you know maybe there's just some

underlying weakness that occurs you know

in the summer and I've talked about that

before with all Bitcoin pairs is that

you can see that we got a rate cut in

July in

2019 that was when all Bitcoin pairs

broke down and the reason I think this

happens is it goes back to the social

risk I I think that people lose interest

in crypto in the summer months a lot of

times and when people tune out that's

when the bid for altcoins against

Bitcoin kind of dries up and then that's

when Bitcoin dominant surges as you saw

Bitcoin dominant surge in 2021 and 2022

and in 2023 in the summer months and you

can see the social risk is is kind of

still looking 2019 esque right it's now

putting in lower lows from this low

right here and lower highs which is

exactly what happened over here in 2019

just before rate Cuts arrived so I think

the reason why you can get that

capitulation of all Bitcoin pairs in the

summer is because detail is once again

tuning out you know I know there were

some people that were kind of hopeful

that maybe they would tune back in but

if you look at YouTube views um for a

lot of these crypto YouTube channels

there was a spike going into the having

but I mean look at this it's just been

bleeding ever since then right it's just

been coming all the way back down so I

think that's kind of the reason that you

could see final capitulation of all

Bitcoin pairs this summer is because in

the summer months is often times when

people stop caring about the markets for

a while and if the bid for altcoins

disappears relative to bitcoin that's

when alt Bitcoin pairs capitulate and

you've already seen some alt Bitcoin

pairs already capitulate um you know

madic Bitcoin has already you know it's

already been in the process of

capitulating well below its range lows

um same thing with with Ada Bitcoin and

and Dot Bitcoin um they're well below

their range lows uh and so on and so

forth right the list goes on and on but

again those are my views I don't know if

I'll continue to be right about the

trend but those are at least the reasons

why I remain um optimistic on bitcoin

dominance and I remain bearish on the

eth Bitcoin valuation monetary policy

has not shifted once it does I will then

be looking for a low on E Bitcoin but I

don't think that's going to happen until

this summer if you guys like the content

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for this time see you guys next time bye