美債穩賺不賠 這次"錯了"為什麼?! 美財政部標售公債 透露不祥細節?!|20241012|@inewsplus
Summary
TLDR视频讨论了美国经济和利率的动态,重点关注近期自然灾害对经济数据的短期影响。讲述了飓风带来的损失,可能对非农就业数据和GDP产生影响,同时提醒投资者不要误解这些数据。专家们对未来的利率走势持谨慎态度,指出地缘政治风险和市场流动性对投资决策的重要性。最后,提到巴菲特在减持股票并持有现金的背景下,强调了当前市场的不确定性以及可能的黄金和石油投资机会。
Takeaways
- 🌪️ 飓风对美国经济数据产生短期影响,但长期趋势通常会恢复。
- 📉 最近的飓风预计将造成高达2000亿美元的经济损失。
- 📊 非农就业数据和第三季度GDP可能会受到飓风的影响,因此投资者需要提前做好准备。
- 🔍 美联储的利率政策正在受到关注,市场对于未来利率的调整充满不确定性。
- 💼 投资专家普遍认为,美国股市可能会在当前经济环境中表现优于国债。
- 💰 巴菲特近期抛售银行股票,持有大量现金,表明他对未来市场的谨慎态度。
- 🏦 地缘政治风险高企,尤其是中东局势不稳,可能会推高油价,影响经济。
- 🌟 黄金在经济动荡期间通常表现良好,投资者应关注这一商品。
- 📉 虽然当前经济数据可能不理想,但部分专家认为这只是短期现象,不会造成持续下滑。
- 📅 对于即将到来的美国总统选举,候选人各自的经济政策可能导致财政赤字进一步扩大。
Q & A
为什么会讨论美联储的降息问题?
-因为降息将影响投资的步伐,大家都希望了解未来的经济走势和利率变动。
最近美国经济数据的表现如何?
-官方数据显示,美国经济数据相对较好,但受飓风等短期因素的影响存在波动。
飓风如何影响美国经济数据?
-飓风会导致短期内的经济数据波动,如消费价格下降和失业率上升,但长期来看经济会恢复正常轨迹。
Hurricane Helene和Hurricane Wilton分别对经济有什么影响?
-Hurricane Helene导致许多企业关闭,消费者价格下降;而Hurricane Wilton的损失预计可达2000亿美元,影响第三季度GDP和非农就业数据。
如何看待当前的美国国债市场?
-由于地缘政治因素,很多外国投资者对美国国债的信心下降,导致需求减少,国债价格和收益率波动。
投资圈内对利率走向的看法如何?
-一些投资圈大佬认为美联储不会再次大幅降息,认为当前的经济状况相对稳定。
美国政府的债务问题有多严重?
-美国政府面临的债务越来越高,财政赤字预计在2024年将达到21.80到30万亿美元,且政府每年只能支付利息,面临破产风险。
当前的经济形势下,投资者应该如何调整策略?
-投资者应关注经济数据和政策变化,保持谨慎态度,灵活调整投资方向,特别是在高风险时期。
巴菲特最近的投资策略是什么?
-巴菲特大量出售银行股票,持有历史最高的现金储备,他对经济和市场风险的担忧使他选择保持现金流。
在未来的经济形势中,黄金的前景如何?
-如果美国的公共价格不理想,且战争风险增加,黄金需求可能会上升,价格有继续上涨的潜力。
Outlines
🌪️ 美国经济与利率调整
在这部分中,Shiwoo讨论了美国利率调整的步伐,尤其是在飓风影响下的经济数据波动。他提到即将到来的两个飓风(Helene和Wilton)对美国经济造成的短期影响,包括消费者价格的下降和失业率的潜在上升。尽管当前经济数据似乎良好,但飓风可能导致2000亿美元的经济损失,进而影响第三季度的GDP和非农就业数据。Shiwoo提醒大家不要因短期数据波动而误解经济状况,强调利率调整的关键在于整体经济趋势,而非瞬时数据的误导。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡利率削减
💡飓风
💡经济数据
💡投资者情绪
💡国债
💡地缘政治
💡非农就业
💡GDP
💡财政赤字
💡市场策略
Highlights
讨论了美国经济的利率削减与投资方向的关系。
分析了近期经济数据的表现,强调要避免对经济前景的误解。
提到飓风的影响对短期经济数据造成了波动。
赫尔维娜飓风导致许多企业关闭,并且影响了消费价格和失业率。
讨论了威尔顿飓风的强度和潜在的经济损失。
初步估计飓风造成的经济损失可能高达2000亿美元。
提醒观众关注非农就业数据和失业率的变化。
强调了美国经济未必会陷入衰退。
预测利率削减的幅度可能不会太大。
大摩创始人达里奥对美联储的利率政策表示怀疑。
分析了投资者对美国国债的信任下降以及其影响。
强调地缘政治风险对外国投资者购买美国国债的影响。
讨论了美国政府的债务水平和未来的财政赤字。
预计2024年财政赤字将高达21.8万亿美元。
关注总统选举对未来经济政策的影响。
建议投资者对股票市场持谨慎态度,关注流动性。
Transcripts
Add 8.10 trillion
What is the wind blowing?
When a hurricane blows in America?
How will everyone's investment direction be promoted?
Dad will show you
Hi, everybody.
I am Shiwoo
I want to talk to you today
The pace of interest rate cuts at the annual meeting
Because ah, how on earth did it cut interest rates?
Tippo for rate cuts
Will affect the pace of our investment
Then we're all here to see
In September.
The future of speed dropped two QR codes in one breath
What about that time?
What do people say?
It's all about preparation.
Come to an anti-override net in advance
Avoid a recession in the United States
Right? So that's when he was worried.
The U.S. economy may not be doing so well
So I think cut interest rates first
Hey, I propped it up
Ok then
But what about the recent economic data?
Well, official business has found that it is actually quite good
What's wrong with the economy?
Hey, it seems okay.
But recently, two black swans flew in.
How about these two?
We have to tell everyone in advance
Lest you be caught by this economic data
I seem to be a little confused again
Okay, so what's up with Bud recently?
There was a disaster in the United States.
Is there a hurricane?
Hurricane raging wow
Affected economic data
Hurricanes are powerful
What about hurricanes, in fact, every time?
Will make this US economic data
There are brief fluctuations
Of course, that's the short-term impact
In the long run
It will resume its original trajectory
But what about the short-term impact?
Especially now that it's very sensitive
US Presidential Election
I'm about to choose, and then what?
And how much junk does that downgrade take up?
So we need to get the first quarter data fast.
Tell everyone
There may be such a misunderstanding
Switch you don't fall into other people's traps
OK
Let's see this optional, not sure about these two.
sentence
The first sentence is on September 26th since the completion of Lei
It's called Helene.
This Helene is amazing
Caused a lot of this
Uh this
Everywhere, this storm is raging.
So a lot of businesses are closing their doors
And then there's a lot of, uh
The preparations have been withdrawn
Wait, so what?
Consumer prices have dropped
Then the unemployment rate
Because many people think that work
Unemployment is going to go up.
Oh yeah.
And this is Hurricane Helene.
But let me tell you.
Another hurricane is coming to sea
This hurricane?
It's called Hurricane Wilton.
This hurricane even reached a Category 5
Of course, it still has the same power.
It's weakened a bit.
When he landed in Polorida
There is likely to be only level 3 left in the Tampa area
The question is
This part of the Tampa area is very densely populated
So a huge peak comes in here.
I can't either
Now, this meteorologist says
Probably over a hundred years
The worst hurricane ever?
So now everyone is ready
A lot of evacuations that should be evacuated
How about some?
This company calls brain tremors.
Closed even
Most boys have Disneyland
Discover if hurricanes are really dangerous
Otherwise, by then, all the Li Sao speeders will fly away
Won't land
Terrible so what?
You see it now?
This hurricane
It is likely to cause economic losses to the square coin
At present, it is preliminary.
This economic loss could be $200 billion
What would be the impact?
This will affect the non-farm payroll data
This will affect GDP in the third quarter.
So what about you?
Next thing you need to be mentally prepared
Here we go.
You see the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data
You see their unemployment rate
You see how he handles the odds of employment
Did you see him uh
This GDP
Maybe not so good looking
But this is temporary
Because of the hurricane.
Okay, actually
This economic data is not good
And you say, oh.
In case you really fall into a misunderstanding
Or say oh
The economy is not very good
So it feels TENSE love tenential here
Then you are wrong
Because it's just a hurricane.
So make sure to tell everyone quickly
So let's get back to this.
What is the trajectory of interest rate cuts now?
This is what you should really care about
How can you adjust your investment pace?
Okay, we saw the 09 quick of the economy
After two yards in the first battle
So let's talk now.
What about November?
Uh will die immediately
Or two yards to death?
Well, if the first month is bad
Shouldn't it be called more?
If it's OK
Then call it less.
But what about the current situation?
Except for the picked title
Beyond the hurricane?
All current data
It all seems to be going in the right direction.
What did he say before?
The US economy could decline rapidly
And there's no recession.
May land
It turned out that now
Don't land
Hey, so if you don't land
Now everyone previews and says oh
That might uh
The magnitude of this downgrade and the number of downgrades
Maybe not so much.
So?
If not downgraded
You can see the beauty in the upright rate.
Fly up
Over 4% again
Well, if you have a high career aspirations
The price of US bonds is a springboard
So Treasury prices fell again
So that's it.
People bought a lot of bond commodities before
Oops, it's commercial now. Hmm.
Nothing to earn
Rare in straightforward rate
It's even rebounding.
Well, actually
It's all about anticipation.
That's how much I think Lianhe will cut interest rates
It may not be that big anymore.
Okay, what about an idea like that?
Let's prove it.
Let's take a look at some of the bosses in the investment circle
What do they think?
Well, it's exactly the same idea.
The boss of the good investment circle
Let's look at an indicator
Founder of Bridgewater Base
His name is Dulwich
Hello Dario
What about Dario?
So he did.
He doesn't think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply again
And he told them.
Because before
Many people's law and enterprise associations issue flags
The US economy is not doing well
So what?
You've done a lot of shifting.
A lot of people put their share of U.S. stocks into U.S. Treasuries
So Dario did.
He now sees a lot of, uh
institutional investor
They put their investment positions in their hands
A large proportion is placed on the blog of the United States
They think it's too much.
What does he think about this part?
It's not right because
He said you can see it now.
The US debt does not seem to have the 1 that everyone imagined.
If you wash it like this, it will really spray on it.
So you put so much in this part of the Treasury
Now it looks like
It seems that he didn't give you the reward you deserve.
So?
And he said, "These are the high parts."
He doesn't think you should buy that much
He believes that US stocks should be better now
What about this opinion of his girlfriend?
Is it right?
Let's prove it.
The inspector said
He said that the supply and demand for U.S. debt is a bit abnormal right now
Ah.
This can be seen from the recent sharp sale of US Treasury bonds
Uh you say uh
The middle will be demoted
That coli grass red eight
What economics used to tell you.
As long as the middle guy wants to be demoted
What about the price of U.S. debt?
Will go up
So at this time, go buy US Treasury products?
You just send sub-questions and make a steady profit.
But what about this so-called steady profit?
Just this once.
You find that it seems that you didn't make any money.
Didn't you say that you can make a profit without losing money?
Why have you been losing money and not making any money?
So what's going on?
Okay, so there's a lot of answers now.
And there's an important key factor in that.
geopolitics
Let many foreign investors now
He's not going to buy U.S. Treasury products
Especially when the US government owes so much money
He keeps issuing U.S. Treasury bonds
So?
People don't trust products like this anymore
So to some extent
People will buy less.
After buying less
This product doesn't feel as stable as it used to.
Of course, it is also relatively stable
But what about when not so many people want it?
Its price will go up
And this is the last Cold War sale.
We were just talking about, uh
How about this American wash like this?
That didn't go up again
That usually goes to see at this time
Several times in the past
Every time you wash it like this
Every time this auction is made?
Hey, just grab this medicine for everyone
Because they thought it had needles.
But what about this time?
Let's see the latest one.
U.S. Treasury
He awarded his U.S. Treasury bonds
He wants to bid 58 billion dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds
Okay, then the green Fiend was marked out at that time
What about an order from this German standard?
He set it at that time at 3.871 3.87% equal to
But they got 3.878 percent.
What do you mean?
He had hoped to bid it at 3.871%
The result is now a higher interest rate
3.878 is marked out.
What do you mean?
No one wants it.
So?
The U.S. government has to tempt you with higher interest rates
And you bought my doll?
I'm giving you a higher interest rate than I would have liked
What to give say again
I mean to give profits to that
So I see
He has to buy his English online Tiger together
That's called his debt, no one wants it.
Can't sell it
Provide the data of the answer to support it.
That's it.
Uh usually
The American government is still under pressure
It is said that when it is publicly occupied, many people will come to buy it.
Right? And?
Let's bid
Then this time because fewer people want to bid.
So he can tempt you to buy it with a higher interest rate?
And then, but?
He 58 billion so much
What about the occupation of this public debt?
Even at high interest rates
It's still not sold out.
How to sell the unsold part?
One way in America is this.
It's not sold out.
He sold them all in turn.
There is a dealer called a primary dealer
Sell everything to him first
He goes to the market again to sell
Okay, what about the title of this example?
Each time there is an indicator to look at
And that's what ultimately the figures didn't sell.
By giving the example title?
What percentage is that?
This time the proportion is 19.2%
highest ever
Didn't you sell it?
So you can tell
Said that no one wants this doll this time
Hey, so what?
Why doesn't anyone want this public debt?
We're going to keep watching
Because of the U.S. government.
He's in too much debt
He now just has to pay back the interest every year
Especially in the previous upgrade fan club
Almost to a high point in about 20 years
Compared to the interest rate.
The U.S. government is just his New York bonds
Have a history
It has a history in years
How old is it?
There's 950 billion dollars.
What is this concept?
That's more than his annual defense budget.
The U.S. government just pays that interest and guarantees it
What else can you do?
Home building?
And now?
One of these in America
The budget of one of his governments
Incredibly high
What about his fiscal deficit in 2024?
It's as high as $21.80 and $30.
And that's increasing online.
It's scary.
And the interest on his debt is getting bigger and bigger
Because they rest every day.
But there is another very important reason to cut interest rates now
That is.
The U.S. government really can't pay that much.
Uh, he's already so big
Then he just made him even bigger with the interest
No, plus the US Presidential Election
Are there two candidates now?
A product of Neerfeijing
How about two people?
Give all kinds of benefits to the people
That is to say
The gap in the U.S. government will widen in the future
They make a statistic
If this well is elected
What about in ten years?
One of them
This financial figure will probably come to 8.10 trillion
Increased 8.10 trillion
On a basis of close to 36 trillion dollars in modern times
Then Trump is even worse
And what about 10 years?
Maybe another $15.15 trillion
So no matter who gets elected
A government in the United States
It's all a little closer to that bankruptcy
But he won't go bankrupt
Is he an American emperor?
He figured out a way
He has various methods
Does Mrs. Dave fight?
He doesn't have to write for nothing
Okay, def. Come back
So what?
Maybe even next
In such a time and space environment
Do you want pranayama?
Although it is likely that the economy
Will not take the initiative
It is likely that the empty mouth may allow it to keep interest rates slightly higher
But it can't last long
Because it goes bankrupt very quickly.
So it's still pranayama.
So what is the recent approach of the Lin Association?
He said uh
They will use a very balanced approach
Very cautious
Then slowly descend according to the refined data
We die or it does
Then since he knows in his heart to say oh
It's still alive.
And even though the economy probably won't land
May be slow
Then we'll see
What kind of investment law should it be?
Okay, let's see.
Limited, there is an indicator flow to Buffett
He kept explaining his stock holdings
His Bank of America stock?
Sell, sell, sell, he has cashed out and got $10 billion
Does he have cash in his hands now?
The Polk should be the highest in history
Liquid cash
Do not buy stocks
What is he afraid of?
Why did you sell so many American banks?
This stock
Someone said
Because he's worried that the U.S. government seems to be looking for money laundering
It seems to be looking for a drug like ecological silver
Across the Financial Institutions Group
Are there concerns about money laundering in the bank?
Oh, is that Bank of America going to be investigated?
Do you know why Fant sold so many stocks?
But anyway
He has a lot of cash in his hands now.
Don't worry.
Why is he afraid to buy stocks?
What about the other one?
The geopolitical risks are very high right now
Is there a war in the Middle East?
If there is a war in the Middle East
Is the price of oil going up?
Oil prices go up
Popo will get up
That airdrop
Will there be a footstep that will rise?
Oops, this link is buckled
But what about the economy now?
It's important.
A top storm in the world economy
China's economy is exploding
So beautiful women don't need so much oil
So what about the oil price?
There seems to be a lido
There is a positive factor
So what happens to it?
How is torn
Let's observe
In addition, there is gold
People say that when the cannon goes off
10,000 gold taels
As for gold, you can choose now, and the demand is very large.
Plus what?
If the public price in the United States
Not so flattering
And then, do you think the oil price is slightly better?
Then you feel
There seems to be a possibility of war
So?
The price of gold has the opportunity to continue to rise
You can rest assured to come up and watch more tests.
OK, of course.
Are you ready to go in the direction of demotion?
May slowly drop
So, should the stock market have a chance?
Everyone may
You can look more in this direction.
Okay, I'll help you prepare the content today.
Hope you like it.
See you next time bye
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