方脸说：为什么我劝你一定要卖掉中国的房产？中国房价泡沫已经破裂！中国的房价走势又会是什么样的？

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the growing issues within China's real estate market, including signs of an impending property bubble burst. Drawing comparisons with Japan and South Korea, the speaker outlines how rapid urbanization and population growth, along with government reliance on land sales, have fueled the bubble. With rising debt levels and an unsustainable housing market, the speaker suggests that the property market has no room for further growth and encourages viewers to sell their properties. This analysis emphasizes the imminent risks and potential long-term declines in property values, urging the audience to act strategically before it's too late.

Takeaways

• 😀 China's real estate crisis has become more prominent in the first quarter of the year, with significant issues related to funding and sales.
• 😀 The real estate bubble in China is beginning to burst, as the country faces demographic stagnation and slower urbanization, similar to Japan and South Korea.
• 😀 Population growth and rapid urbanization have driven housing demand in China, leading to constant price increases and creating a real estate bubble.
• 😀 The real estate bubble in China shares similarities with past bubbles in Japan, South Korea, and other countries, which eventually burst once urbanization slowed and population growth plateaued.
• 😀 China's population growth rate in 2023 is negative, signaling that the factors that once supported the real estate boom are no longer in play.
• 😀 The government’s reliance on land revenue has kept the real estate market afloat, but it faces a massive financial gap in dealing with unfinished buildings and maintaining property prices.
• 😀 The Chinese government has attempted to stabilize the real estate market by funding construction of unfinished homes, but the cost to resolve this issue is staggering, estimated at over 4 trillion RMB.
• 😀 China's housing affordability has reached an unsustainable level, with the average price-to-income ratio reaching 12.4, far higher than in the United States or Japan.
• 😀 China's household debt has reached a record high of 148.6%, largely due to mortgages, further limiting the financial capacity of the population.
• 😀 The real estate bubble in China is likely to burst with long-term consequences, similar to Japan and South Korea, with property values remaining stagnant or declining for decades.
• 😀 Selling property now is seen as a safe option to avoid further losses, as the real estate market is unlikely to experience significant growth in the foreseeable future.

Q & A

What is the main issue discussed in the video regarding the Chinese real estate market?

The video discusses the imminent collapse of the Chinese real estate market, focusing on the bursting of the real estate bubble caused by factors such as stagnating population growth, completed urbanization, and unsustainable property prices.

What is the primary cause of the real estate bubble in China?

The real estate bubble in China is primarily caused by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and population growth, which led to a continuous demand for housing and rising property prices over decades.

How does the real estate bubble in China compare to Japan and South Korea?

The Chinese real estate bubble shares similarities with Japan and South Korea's bubbles, such as rapid urbanization and population growth. However, China's bubble is considered to be more extreme and may burst with a longer and deeper decline in property values.

What key factor is driving the current downturn in the Chinese real estate market?

The key factor driving the downturn is the declining population growth rate and the fact that urbanization in China has largely been completed, which reduces the demand for new housing and leads to a surplus in housing inventory.

Why does the Chinese government struggle to manage the real estate crisis?

The Chinese government is struggling due to its limited financial capacity. The government has been providing funds to ensure the completion of unfinished buildings (called 'guaranteeing deliveries') but the costs far exceed available resources. Additionally, maintaining property values is becoming unsustainable.

What is the issue with China's 'pre-sale' system for housing?

The 'pre-sale' system in China allows homebuyers to pay for properties before they are completed, which leads to significant financial risks. If the project fails or stalls (leading to unfinished buildings), buyers have already paid large amounts of money, often through loans, which increases social unrest.

How does the population growth rate in China currently compare to Japan and South Korea?

In 2023, China's population growth rate is negative, whereas Japan and South Korea's growth rates were already very low in the 1990s, which marked the beginning of their real estate bubble bursts. China's population growth and urbanization have reached a tipping point.

What are the financial implications for the Chinese government to stabilize the real estate market?

The Chinese government would need to spend vast amounts of money—estimated between 4 to 15 trillion RMB—to stabilize the real estate market, which exceeds the government's financial capacity. This includes covering unfinished projects and purchasing housing to manage overproduction.

What is the current state of property affordability in China?

Property affordability in China is a major issue, with the average price-to-income ratio being 12.4 nationwide, far higher than in the United States, where it never exceeded 4. Additionally, China's household debt ratio is at a record 148.6%, indicating that many Chinese families are heavily indebted, mainly due to housing.

What is the recommended course of action for people with real estate in China, according to the video?

The video suggests that selling property is the best option, as the real estate market is unlikely to see significant recovery. The speaker argues that the widespread belief in perpetual property value growth is no longer valid, and selling now will prevent further financial loss as property prices will continue to fall or stagnate.