June 24, 2024 NQ Turtle Soup Short

Summary

In this video, the speaker shares insights into their recent health struggles related to blood sugar, including vision issues and dizziness. They then provide a detailed technical analysis of the NASDAQ market, discussing short trades, sell-side imbalances, and price movements. The speaker explains concepts like rejection blocks, volume imbalances, and inversion fair value gaps, focusing on predicting price behavior. Throughout the analysis, they emphasize confidence in their strategy and dismiss common misconceptions. The video ends with a note about upcoming educational content and a mention of online scams falsely using their identity.

Takeaways

• 🤒 The speaker has been feeling unwell, possibly related to blood sugar issues, experiencing symptoms like dizziness and vision problems.
• 📉 They anticipate the NASDAQ to trade down and are focusing on the sell-side below the midpoint, aiming for the low formed after 8:00 a.m.
• 📊 The speaker is comfortable with taking short positions and is targeting a level around 760 as an intermediate swing, with stop losses in place.
• 📈 There is a focus on the 'rejection block' around a recent up-close candle, using it as an indicator for short entry points.
• ⏰ Timing plays a significant role in their trading strategy, particularly around 7:50 a.m. and 8:30 a.m., where they expect price movements.
• 📉 The speaker emphasizes using volume imbalances and inversion fair value gaps as part of their strategy, noting their flexibility in price action.
• 🔍 They highlight the importance of watching certain price levels, such as the low at 820, for potential liquidity grabs and further downside movement.
• 🛠️ They mention a specific concept of 'inversion fair value gaps,' which they claim is unique to their teaching and different from other market theories.
• 🎯 Their long-term target is around the 926 level, with smaller targets along the way to reduce risk and manage the trade.
• 📢 The speaker frequently addresses the audience, responding to comments and clarifying that they don't read public comments and aren't on Instagram.

Q & A

What symptoms does the speaker describe at the beginning of the video?

The speaker mentions experiencing issues with vision, dizziness, and generally not feeling well, attributing these symptoms possibly to blood sugar problems.

What is the speaker's initial view on the NASDAQ market?

The speaker believes the NASDAQ will trade down for a while and considers the buy side safe, while noting some imbalance on the sell side.

What is the speaker's strategy for entering a short position in the market?

The speaker is looking to take a short position, aiming for a low formed just after 8:00 a.m. They set a stop loss near a recent high and plan to add more to the position if the price moves into a rejection block.

What does the speaker mean by a 'rejection block'?

A 'rejection block' refers to a price level where the market is expected to reject upward movement and start declining. The speaker focuses on the last large green candle and waits for the price to hit this area as confirmation.

How does the speaker plan to manage their risk in the trade?

The speaker is comfortable with the stop loss placement and mentions adding more to their position if the market moves as expected. They are also willing to reduce risk as the market moves toward their target.

What is the significance of the 'volume imbalance' in the speaker's analysis?

The speaker identifies a volume imbalance as a weak point in their analysis but is comfortable with price moving through it and coming back to it as either a target or a stop-loss management area.

What is an 'inversion fair value gap' according to the speaker?

An 'inversion fair value gap' is a gap that the speaker expects to act as resistance after the price has moved away from it. This gap forms when price has moved up or down and is expected to act as resistance or support if the market retraces to that level.

Why does the speaker dismiss 'quarters theory'?

The speaker dismisses quarters theory, calling it a 'joke' and a 'gimmick.' They assert that their own analysis, such as the inversion fair value gap, offers a more reliable method.

What is the speaker’s ultimate target for the trade?

The speaker's ultimate target for the trade is 760, and they plan to exit just above that level to ensure they capture profits without needing to monitor the trade extensively.

Why does the speaker mention banning certain comments in the comment section?

The speaker mentions banning comments that question the lack of visible comments on the video. They clarify that they only allow themselves to read comments and will ban people who make such inquiries, especially if they are not subscribed.