"Everyone Is Wrong About This Bitcoin Cycle," states Lyn Alden.

Summary

The speaker expresses a positive two-year outlook for Bitcoin, despite acknowledging its potential for significant volatility and periods of underperformance. They note that while Bitcoin's price has recently declined from its all-time high, historical patterns suggest it could rebound strongly. The analysis highlights the influence of macroeconomic events, regulatory actions, and Federal Reserve policy on Bitcoin's trajectory. The speaker also draws parallels between Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that both are influenced by liquidity and fiscal factors, with the latter being particularly significant for Bitcoin. They mention the role of ETFs in unlocking access to Bitcoin for large pools of capital, which could drive demand and price. Finally, the speaker emphasizes the importance of being prepared for Bitcoin's volatile path to growth, while remaining optimistic about its long-term performance.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker has a two-year positive outlook on Bitcoin, expecting it to perform well over the next two years despite potential short-term volatility.
• 💹 Bitcoin's price has seen a 10% drop from its all-time high of $3,835 on March 14, experiencing a 7% plunge at the start of April due to overbought conditions.
• 🔄 The current market trends suggest that Bitcoin is following the pattern of previous halving cycles, with the price trajectory aligning with the five phases of Bitcoin halving.
• 📉 Notably, there has been significant movement in the Bitcoin Futures Market, with liquidations exceeding $121 million within a 4-hour period on April 2, indicating elevated volatility.
• 📊 Trading volumes for Bitcoin have dropped significantly, falling over $13 billion from the year-to-date peak, with spot selling and long-term holders taking profits contributing to the pressure on Bitcoin's price.
• 🌐 Macroeconomic events and regulatory actions, including Federal Reserve monetary policy, continue to influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.
• 💰 The speaker notes improving liquidity, largely fiscal driven, as a significant factor in Bitcoin's price movement, with ETFs and other capital pools unlocking access for large amounts of money to the cryptocurrency.
• 🔗 The impact of the halving on Bitcoin's price is relatively small compared to the overall changes in external demand, but it plays a pivotal role in setting higher highs and lows with each cycle.
• 📈 The speaker draws a comparison between Bitcoin and gold, noting that both have seen demand due to fiscal issues and central banks diversifying their reserve holdings.
• 🚀 Despite the volatility and uneven path, the speaker anticipates a recovery in Bitcoin's price, especially as more financial institutions embrace it.
• 📊 The speaker concludes that while the halving is a relevant long-term factor, liquidity plays a more significant role in Bitcoin's price during bull markets.

Q & A

What is the speaker's general view on Bitcoin's performance over the next two years?

The speaker believes that Bitcoin is likely to do well over the next two years, despite potential periods of being overbought and underperforming compared to other assets.

How did Bitcoin's price perform after reaching an all-time high on March 14?

After reaching an all-time high of $3,835 on March 14, Bitcoin's price declined by 10% by April 2.

What is the significance of the 7% plunge in Bitcoin's price at the start of April?

The 7% plunge signifies a contraction in the market and is part of a pre-hailing retracement, which some analysts compare to patterns observed in previous hailing cycles.

What event in the Bitcoin Futures Market is mentioned in the transcript related to liquidations?

Liquidations in the Bitcoin Futures Market spiked, exceeding $121 million within a 4-hour period on April 2, coinciding with elevated volatility.

How has Bitcoin's trading volume changed from its peak in March?

Bitcoin's trading volume has seen a significant drop, plummeting over $13 billion from the year-to-date peak of $4 to $5 billion in daily activity recorded on March 5.

What impact is spot selling having on Bitcoin's price?

Spot selling continues to exert pressure on Bitcoin's price, contributing to its fluctuations and potential declines.

What trend is observed among long-term holders and recent buyers of Bitcoin?

Long-term holders are reducing risk and taking profits, while recent buyers appear to be short-term holders, as indicated by the highest BTC supply held by short-term holders since July 26, 2021.

How do macroeconomic events and regulatory actions influence Bitcoin's price?

Bitcoin's price remains subject to macroeconomic events and regulatory actions, with Federal Reserve monetary policy being a significant influencer on its trajectory.

What is the speaker's view on the role of ETFs in Bitcoin's price movement?

The speaker believes that ETFs play a significant role in Bitcoin's price movement by unlocking pools of capital that have not been able to access Bitcoin, thus increasing demand for exposure to the network.

How does the speaker compare the impact of liquidity and the having on Bitcoin's price during a bull market?

The speaker suggests that overall liquidity has a much bigger impact on Bitcoin's price during a bull market than the having itself, as external demand for Bitcoin plays a more significant role.

What does the speaker suggest about the role of the having during bear markets?

During bear markets, the having plays a pivotal role in why each cycle achieves higher highs and higher lows than the one before it.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin's Two-Year Market Outlook

The speaker expresses a preference for a two-year view on Bitcoin, predicting its overall positive performance despite potential short-term overbought periods and underperformance. They acknowledge the waning bullish momentum that previously drove Bitcoin to an all-time high, but also note the historical patterns of Bitcoin's halving cycles. The speaker draws parallels with gold's value, suggesting that macroeconomic factors and Federal Reserve monetary policy will continue to influence Bitcoin's trajectory. They also mention the growing interest from financial institutions and the unlocking of new capital pools through ETFs as factors that could drive Bitcoin's demand and price up in the long term.

05:01

💡 Bitcoin's Volatility and Long-Term Growth

The speaker discusses the volatility of Bitcoin, emphasizing the importance of preparing for its uneven path to growth. They predict that by late 2025, Bitcoin will likely be higher than its current value and outperform other large-cap assets. The speaker also explores the relationship between interest rates, deficits, and gold, suggesting that fiscal issues and central banks' decisions to diversify their reserves contribute to the demand for both gold and Bitcoin. They conclude that while the halving plays a significant role in long-term cycles, liquidity and external demand have a more substantial impact on Bitcoin's price during bull markets.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the context of the video, Bitcoin is the primary subject, with discussions around its price trajectory, market performance, and how it's influenced by various economic and regulatory factors.

💡Two-year view

A two-year view refers to a perspective or forecast that spans a duration of two years. In the video, the speaker expresses a preference for this longer-term outlook when considering Bitcoin's potential performance, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, a positive trend may be observed over a two-year period.

💡Overbought

Overbought is a term used in financial markets to describe a condition where an asset's price has risen too quickly, to a point considered unsustainable, often leading to a price correction or decline. In the video, this term is used to describe periods where Bitcoin's price may have increased too rapidly, potentially leading to a temporary downturn.

💡Bitcoin Futures Market

The Bitcoin Futures Market is a financial marketplace where participants can trade contracts that derive their value from the price of Bitcoin and settle at a predetermined future date. Futures allow investors to speculate on the future price of Bitcoin or hedge against price movements. In the video, significant movements in this market, including liquidations, are discussed as factors affecting Bitcoin's price.

💡Liquidations

Liquidations in the context of futures trading occur when a trader's position is closed involuntarily due to a margin call, typically because the market moves against the trader's position, and the trader cannot meet the required margin. In the video, liquidations are noted as a significant event that impacts Bitcoin's market dynamics, with a specific instance mentioned where over $121 million was liquidated within a 4-hour period.

💡Trading Volumes

Trading volumes refer to the total amount of an asset that is traded on markets within a specific period. High trading volumes often indicate a highly liquid market and can influence price movements. In the video, a significant drop in Bitcoin's trading volumes is mentioned, which can affect its price and market dynamics.

💡Long-term holders

Long-term holders in the context of financial assets like Bitcoin are investors who hold onto their positions for an extended period, often with the expectation of long-term gains. These holders can influence the market by their decisions to buy, sell, or hold their assets. In the video, it's mentioned that long-term holders are reducing risk and taking profits, which can affect Bitcoin's price and market sentiment.

💡Macroeconomic events

Macroeconomic events refer to large-scale economic occurrences that have widespread effects on economies and financial markets. These can include changes in interest rates, inflation, economic growth, or regulatory actions. In the video, such events are mentioned as factors that can influence Bitcoin's price trajectory, alongside the actions of central banks and fiscal policies.

💡ETFs

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are investment funds and exchange-traded products that hold a collection of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, and are traded on stock exchanges. ETFs provide investors with a way to gain exposure to a variety of assets without having to buy each individually. In the video, the impact of ETFs on Bitcoin's liquidity and price is discussed, with the suggestion that they can unlock pools of capital that have not previously had access to Bitcoin.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity in financial markets refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold without affecting the asset's price. High liquidity typically means that there are many buyers and sellers, leading to efficient price discovery and smooth trading. In the video, liquidity is highlighted as a key factor influencing Bitcoin's price, with improving liquidity being fiscally driven and having a significant impact during bull markets.

💡Halving

Halving is an event in the Bitcoin network where the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This event occurs approximately every four years and has historically been associated with price increases due to the reduced supply growth. In the video, the halving is discussed as a long-term factor that influences Bitcoin's price, particularly during bear markets.

Highlights

Bitcoin's potential performance over the next two years is discussed, with a focus on its long-term outlook despite short-term volatility.

The transcript mentions that Bitcoin may experience overbought periods and underperform temporarily but is expected to recover.

The all-time high of Bitcoin at $3,835 on March 14 is noted, with a subsequent 10% drop by April 2.

A comparison is made between Bitcoin's price trajectory and the five phases of the Bitcoin halving, with a pre-halving retracement being observed.

The Bitcoin Futures Market is highlighted, with significant movements and liquidations reaching $121 million on April 2.

Bitcoin's trading volumes have seen a major drop of over $13 billion from their peak.

Spot selling and long-term holders reducing risk and taking profits are identified as factors influencing Bitcoin's price.

The impact of macroeconomic events and regulatory actions on Bitcoin's price trajectory is discussed.

Improving liquidity, particularly fiscal-driven, is seen as a positive factor for Bitcoin.

The role of ETFs in unlocking access to Bitcoin for large pools of capital is highlighted as a significant factor in price increases.

The comparison between Bitcoin and gold is made, with both being influenced by liquidity and fiscal factors.

Gold's recent breakout and its potential for higher values in the next few years are discussed based on fundamentals.

The importance of liquidity over the halving event in influencing Bitcoin's price during bull markets is emphasized.

The halving is noted to play a pivotal role in bear markets, contributing to higher highs and lows in each cycle.

The transcript suggests that Bitcoin's price could be higher by late 2025, outperforming other large-cap assets.

The transcript discusses the potential for temporary liquidity shocks due to large deficits and their impact on asset prices.

The transcript concludes with an overall positive outlook on Bitcoin and gold, driven by improving liquidity and fiscal factors.

Transcripts

so for this year I'm less I'm less

certain I prefer a two-year view on

bitcoin so I think that bitcoin's likely

going to do well over the next call it

two years um it get it can get through

periods where it's overbought right

where where you could you could have a

pretty poor 3mon period with Bitcoin and

it could underperform almost everything

the bullish momentum that drove Bitcoin

to an all-time high of Dollar

3,835 on March 14 has waned with

bitcoin's price now down 10% from that

Peak on April 2 this contraction has

resulted in over a 7% Plunge at the

start of April some analysts posit that

Bitcoin is entering the preh having

phase historically following a certain

pattern akin to previous having Cycles

BTC price trajectory seems to align with

the five phases of the Bitcoin having

with the draw down preceding the having

expected on April 20 by 18 days a social

media post from crypto Trader and

independent analyst Rec Capital suggests

that the ongoing price action is part of

a preh having retracement reminiscent of

38% and 20% dips observed during the

2016 and 2020 having Cycles notably

there's been significant movement in the

Bitcoin Futures Market marked by

liquidations long liquidations spiked

within a 4-Hour period on April 2

exceeding $121 million coinciding with

elevated volatility bitcoin's trading

volumes have also seen a significant

drop plummeting over $13 billion from

the year-to-date peak of do4 to5 billion

in Daily activity recorded on March 5

spot selling continues to exert pressure

on bitcoin's price furthermore long-term

holders are reducing risk and taking

profits while recent buyers appear to be

short-term holders as indicated by the

highest BTC Supply held by short-term

holders since July 26 2021 this trend

could potentially contribute to further

declines in Bitcoin prices despite these

fluctu ations bitcoin's price remains

subject to macroeconomic events and

Regulatory actions as well as Federal

Reserve monetary policy are likely to

continue influencing its trajectory

nevertheless Market participants

anticipate a recovery in bitcoin's price

particularly as more financial

institutions Embrace BTC I generally

think so I think we've generally seen

improving liquidity a lot of it's fiscal

driven um and and so I do think that

they you know they've resisted the fact

that yields are higher right so normally

when you see yields and especially real

yields this High you should see gold a

lot lower than it is um and so I think

that gold investors have been sniffing

out some of those fiscal problems that

I've been talking about uh and in

addition because of you know kind of uh

Decisions by central banks to diversify

their Reserve Holdings and have more

gold in their portfolios that's been

another huge Factor as well so

especially from that foreign component

um there's been a lot of demand and so

you know bitcoin's obvious had somewhat

similar Catalyst it's heavily tied to

liquidity it's had Catalyst from the

ETFs and things like that as well so the

two the reasons that both of them are

rising I don't think are perfectly um

overlapping but I do think that they are

following liquidity and which is large a

fiscal driven phenomenon I think the ETF

unlocks there's there's pools of capital

that are very big that have not been

able to access Bitcoin um and and so

those pools of capital can increasingly

access Bitcoin and so that's kind of pen

up demand for exposure to the network uh

that they now have exposure to or at

least and they don't even all have it

yet sometimes it takes months for those

things to still get approval to start

moving in and start to become normalized

in those environments so I think I think

that is a a a contributor to price um

the having uh certainly in a sentiment

sense can raise expectations um I think

that overall liquidity is a much bigger

impact on bitcoin price during bull

market than the having itself um because

you know if you if you do the math for

how much Supply the having takes off the

market per day it's relatively small

compared to what you can get from ETF

inflows or relatively small compared to

what you can get in one way kind of net

exchange volume in a given day um and so

the overall changes in external demand

for Bitcoin play a bigger role than just

the

the one before it but in terms of the

timing of bull market specifically I

generally Point more toward liquidity

and less so toward the having even

though the having is a very relevant

kind of longer term Factor so for this

year I'm less I'm less certain I prefer

a two-year view on bitcoin so I think

that bitcoin's likely going to do well

over the next call it two years um it

get it can get through periods where

it's overbought right where where you

could you could have a pretty poor

three-month period with Bitcoin and it

could underperform almost everything um

and then it could have another 3 to six

months of just of spectacular gains um

and so um my view is generally looking

back from late 2025 I'd be surprised if

Bitcoin was not higher than it is now

notably uh and and that probably

outperformed other kind of large large

cap things you can own um but you have

to account for the volatility and you

have to kind of be prepared for that

really uneven path to get there so I I

think that because we're now in this

kind of f dominance regime higher

interest rates fuel the deficit even

more um- which which potentially fuels

gold um I think you know you could get

liquidity like temporary liquidity

shocks if for example um you run these

big deficits the FED tries not to

monetize them uh and you get kind of um

like a temporary liquidity problem in

Treasure markets that could certainly

contribute to a gold selloff uh

temporarily um but I do think that the

the breakout has likes to it um I think

that the breakout is is real I think

that it's it's based on fundamentals I

think that there's a a good reason that

a lot of foreign investors want to own

gold more so than treasuries um and that

they want to basically have a better

ratio of gold to treasuries um and I

think that that's that's probably going

to be a longer term story uh and I have

no view on what gold does and say a

three-month period um but I do think it

it's it's now that it's broken out I

think that's a very strong sign that I

think it's probably headed higher in the

next few years I generally think so I

think we've generally seen improving

liquidity a lot of it's fiscal driven um

and and so I do think that they you know

they've resisted the fact that yields

are higher right so normally when you

see yields and especially real yields

this High you should see gold a lot

lower than it is um and so I think that

gold investors have been sniffing out

some of those fiscal problems that I've

been talking about uh and in addition

because of you know kind of uh Decisions

by central banks to diversify their

Reserve Holdings and have more gold in

their portfolios that's been another

huge Factor as well so especially from

that foreign component um there's been a

lot of demand and so you know bitcoin's

obviously had somewhat similar Catalyst

it's heavily tied to liquidity it's had

Catalyst from the ETFs and things like

that as well so the two the reasons that

both of them are rising I don't think

are perfectly um overlapping but I do

think that they are following liquidity

and which is large a fiscal driven

phenomenon I think the ETF unlocks there

there's pools of capital that are very

big that have not been able to access

Bitcoin um and and so those pools of

capital can increasingly access Bitcoin

and so that's kind of pen up demand for

exposure to the network uh that they now

have exposure to or at least and they

don't even all have it yet sometimes it

takes months for those things to still

get approval to start moving in and

start to become normalized in those

environments so I think I think that is

a a a contributor to price um the having

uh certainly in a sentiment sense can

raise expect ations um I think that

overall liquidity is a much bigger

impact on bitcoin price during bull

market than the having itself um because

you know if you if you do the math for

how much Supply the having takes off the

market per day it's relatively small

compared to what you can get from ETF

inflows or relatively small compared to

what you can get in one way kind of net

exchange volume in a given day um and so

the overall changes in external demand

for Bitcoin play a bigger role than just

the having during bull markets I think

where the HS really matter the most is

during bare markets they play a pivotal

role in why each cycle gets higher highs

and higher lows than the one before it

but in terms of the timing of bull

market specifically I generally Point

more toward liquidity and less so toward

the having even though the having is a

very relevant kind of longer term Factor