Why the Bitcoin Crash Has Further to Fall (key targets for 2025)

Summary

In this video, Manuel BL discusses Bitcoin's recent price movements and the broader market outlook. While acknowledging the potential for temporary corrections, he remains cautious about Bitcoin's long-term trend, citing significant resistance at $100K and warning of the risk of further declines. The conversation highlights Bitcoin's current bearish market, the influence of external factors like news events and major players such as MicroStrategy, and the volatility typical in bear markets. Despite the risks, Manuel suggests Bitcoin could reach $110K-$120K once a bottom is confirmed and market conditions stabilize.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin's short-term trend appears bearish due to recent price drops and volatility, with major support levels already broken.
• 😀 Significant resistance near 100K is identified, and the trend would need to break above this level to shift to bullish.
• 😀 Bitcoin is currently experiencing extreme volatility, which is typical during bear markets, where both rallies and drops are exaggerated.
• 😀 Both Bitcoin and Ethereum faced drops in early 2023, with some analysts predicting a low in the low 80K range for Bitcoin.
• 😀 Even with bullish news, like Trump being pro-crypto, Bitcoin failed to sustain a rally, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
• 😀 The concept of 'confirmation' is emphasized: further declines are more likely until the market shows signs of a sustained reversal.
• 😀 Miners' charts, including the BLOK ETF, indicate bearish sentiment, hinting at possible capitulation in the market.
• 😀 MicroStrategy is highlighted as a potential risk factor, as its position in Bitcoin could worsen if Bitcoin’s price falls further.
• 😀 If Bitcoin falls below 70K or even 65K, it could lead to further drops, but the bottom is not yet confirmed.
• 😀 The target for Bitcoin this year is around 110K-120K, but clearer projections will only be possible after confirming the market's bottom.
• 😀 The importance of waiting for the bottom before making new projections is stressed; Elliot wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions will help refine targets post-correction.

Q & A

What is Manuel BL's general outlook on Bitcoin's price movement in the short term?

Manuel BL is cautious about Bitcoin's short-term prospects. He sees the market as being in a bearish phase with high volatility, indicating that while there may be temporary rallies, the overall trend is still downward until a significant resistance level (around 100K) is broken.

Why does Manuel BL believe the market is currently in a bearish phase?

Manuel BL believes the market is in a bearish phase because Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken down below significant support levels. Despite positive news in the crypto space, such as Donald Trump’s pro-crypto remarks, these have already been priced in by the market, leading to price drops after temporary rallies.

What does Manuel BL mean when he refers to Bitcoin's volatility as 'insane'?

When Manuel BL describes Bitcoin's volatility as 'insane,' he is referring to the extreme fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price during the bear market. These volatile price swings, both up and down, are typical of bear markets, where rallies and corrections are much more dramatic compared to bull markets.

What is the significance of the 100K resistance level for Bitcoin, according to Manuel BL?

The 100K resistance level is crucial for Bitcoin, as Manuel BL believes that for Bitcoin to shift from a bearish trend to a bullish one, it must break above this level. Until Bitcoin consistently trades above 100K, he sees the market as being in a cautious phase with more downside risk.

What is Manuel BL's prediction for Bitcoin’s potential price range if the market continues to decline?

Manuel BL predicts that if Bitcoin continues to decline, it could potentially drop to the low 80Ks or even as low as 65K. He believes that breaking critical support levels could lead to a further downward correction, but this would be a temporary phase before potential recovery.

How does Manuel BL view the role of MicroStrategy in Bitcoin’s price action?

Manuel BL points out that MicroStrategy's large Bitcoin holdings could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin’s price drops further, MicroStrategy might be forced to sell some of its holdings, creating a negative feedback loop that could exacerbate Bitcoin's price decline.

Does Manuel BL think Bitcoin has already bottomed out in its recent price dip?

No, Manuel BL does not believe Bitcoin has bottomed out yet. He thinks that while there could be temporary rallies or 'bounces,' the broader bearish trend is still in place until Bitcoin breaks key resistance levels, particularly around the 100K mark.

What does Manuel BL expect for Bitcoin's price in the second half of the year?

In the second half of the year, Manuel BL sees a potential price target for Bitcoin of around 110K to 120K, assuming the correction ends and the market begins to recover. However, he emphasizes that this is contingent on finding a bottom and a reversal of the current trend.

Why is Manuel BL cautious about making price predictions for Bitcoin at this moment?

Manuel BL is cautious about making price predictions because Bitcoin is still in a correction phase, and the market is too unpredictable. He prefers to wait for the market to bottom out and for a clearer trend to form before making more accurate forecasts.

What is the role of the Dow Theory in Manuel BL’s market analysis?

Manuel BL uses the Dow Theory as part of his market analysis. This theory helps him understand the prevailing market trend and guide his decisions. He stresses giving the benefit of the doubt to the current trend, in this case, the bearish trend, until confirmation of a trend reversal occurs.