Why the big car companies are losing China | Business Beyond

Summary

脚本は、中国での電気自動車（EV）市場の急速な成長と、それに伴う伝統的な自動車メーカーの課題について述べています。ボルボアが中国市場でリードした過去の成功と、現在は価格競争や技術的な問題により市場シェアを失う状況に直面していることを詳細に分析しています。また、中国政府の政策と中国メーカーの技術革新、さらにはTeslaの参入が市場にどのような影響を与えたかについても触れています。最終的には、中国メーカーがグローバル市場での競争力を高め、伝統的な自動車メーカーが直面する新たな課題についても言及しています。

Takeaways

• 🚗 ドイツのVolkswagenの電気自動車ID.3は、ドイツで約35,000ドルで購入できますが、中国では同じ車が半分の価格で購入できます。
• 🔥 中国では自動車メーカーが価格競争に巻き込まれており、Volkswagenは市場シェアを守るために価格を割り下げています。
• 🏆 中国の競争は激しく、外国の車メーカーは市場から失 footingを失いつつあります。
• 🚀 中国の自動車メーカーは急速に崛起し、の世界市場に電気自動車を展開する準備をしています。
• 🔌 電池車は内燃機関車よりも製造が容易で安価であることを中国政府は知っており、その分野に力を入れています。
• 🚕 1978年に中国はVolkswagenに注意を向け、自動車供給を開始しました。
• 📈 1984年に Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Companyが設立され、Volkswagenは中国市場で成功を収めました。
• 📉 ただし、中国市場での成功はVolkswagenにリスクをもたらし、その市場への依存度が高まりました。
• 🔋 電気自動車市場が発展すると、中国はその分野の研究開発プロジェクトを資金提供し、消費者向けの補助金を提供しました。
• 🚗 特斯拉の中国進出は、中国のEV市場の標準を向上させ、中国の自動車メーカーが世界市場で競争力を得るようになりました。
• 💡 電気自動車は、中国の工業技術、電池生産、鉱石精錬のknow-howを活用して急速に供給網が形成されました。
• 🌏 中国の自動車メーカーは、国内市場の混雑を背景に、現在グローバル市場に進出し始めています。これは、世界の大きなブランドにとってさらに問題をもたらす可能性があります。

Q & A

Volkswagenの電気自動車ID.3はドイツでどのくらいの価格带で販売されていますか？

Volkswagenの電気自動車ID.3はドイツで約35,000ドルで販売されています。これは、割引後の価格です。

中国で販売されるVolkswagenの電気自動車ID.3はドイツとはどのような価格差がありますか？

中国で販売されるVolkswagenの電気自動車ID.3はドイツよりもはるかに安価で、同じ車につき、価格はドイツの半分程度にとどまっています。

Volkswagenはなぜ中国で価格を割り下げようとしていますか？

Volkswagenは中国での市場シェアを維持するために、価格を割り下げています。中国の競争が激化し、外国の自動車メーカーが市場から排除され、売上が減少し、市場シェアが縮小しているためです。

中国の自動車市場でどのような変化が起こっていますか？

中国の自動車市場では、外国の自動車メーカーが売上を減らし、市場シェアを失っています。一方で、中国の自動車メーカーは上昇しており、自国の電気自動車を世界中の市場に紹介する準備をしています。

中国政府はどのようにして電気自動車産業を支援していますか？

中国政府は、地元の自動車製造業を支援するための様々な方策を導入しています。これには、補助金、税制優遇、および研究開発への投資が含まれます。

Outlines

00:00

🚗 ドイツVWの電気自動車ID.3、中国での価格戦略

VWの電気自動車ID.3は、ドイツでは約35,000ドルで購入でき、中国では同じ車でも価格が半分程度に差がある。これは、中国での自動車市場での価格競争が激化しており、外国の自動車メーカーが市場シェアを失い、売上の減少に苦しんでいるためである。特にVWは、中国市場での依存度が高く、そのリスクを担っている。

05:02

🌏 中国の電気自動車産業の発展とVWの課題

中国は、電気自動車(EV)の技術を開発し、世界市場で競争力を持つようになった。中国政府は、EV技術の研究開発を支援し、消費者向けの補助金を提供し、EV企業を助長した。中国のEVメーカーは、世界市場に進出し、その競争力を示している。一方、VWは、バッテリーやソフトウェアなどの技術面で競合他社と差をつけることができず、中国市場でのシェアを失正在に苦んでいる。

10:04

🛠️ 外国自動車メーカーの中国でのソフトウェア問題

外国自動車メーカーは、EVのソフトウェア開発に苦戦している。VWのID.3は、オペレーティングシステムが遅く、不安定で、改良が必要な状況にある。一方、中国の自動車メーカーは、遠隔からシステムの更新を実行できるなど、技術面での優位性を示している。また、中国市場の消費者は、デジタル技術に高い関心を持ち、カラオケなどのエンターテインメント機能を求めている。

15:09

🌐 中国の自動車メーカーが世界市場に進出

中国の自動車メーカーは、国内市場の過剰な競争を背景に、世界市場への進出を始めた。BYDは、ヨーロッパ市場向けに5つの新しいモデルを発表し、消費者にデジタル技術に高い関心を持っている。これ表明外国自動車メーカーが、中国製EVの進出によりさらなる課題に直面している可能性がある。

Keywords

💡Volkswagen

ドイツの自動車メーカーで、この動画の主題はVolkswagenが中国市場で直面している課題とその戦略です。Volkswagenは中国市場でかつて大きな市場シェアを持っていたが、現在は競争他社に市場を奪われています。

💡electric ID.3

Volkswagenが開発した電気自動車のモデル名で、この車が中国市場で価格競争を繰り広げるきっかけとなっています。ID.3は、中国での販売価格がドイツよりも低いという特徴があります。

💡price war

価格競争は、同業他社と市場シェアを奪い合うために、価格を引き下げる競争を指します。この動画では、Volkswagenが中国市場での価格競争に巻き込まれ、価格を引き下げることで市場を守ろうとしています。

💡Chinese car companies

中国の自動車メーカーのことを指し、この動画では彼らが急成長を遂げ、世界市場での競争力を高めていることが強調されています。

💡battery cars

電池車とは、電池パックを使用して動く電気自動車のことで、内燃機関を使わず、環境に優しいという利点があります。この動画では、中国が電池車を開発し、世界市場で競争力を得たことが言及されています。

💡software

ソフトウェアとは、コンピューターやスマートフォンなどの情報機器を操作するためのプログラムやアプリケーションのことを指します。この動画では、車載ソフトウェアの開発がVolkswagenの弱みとされ、中国の自動車メーカーがリモートアップデートなどの技術で先んじていることが示されています。

💡market share

市場シェアは、ある企業がその市場における総需要占用率を指す指標です。この動画では、Volkswagenが中国市場での市場シェアを失い、中国の自動車メーカーがその市場を獲得していることが強調されています。

💡digital connectivity

デジタル接続性とは、インターネットや通信ネットワークを介して情報機器が相互に接続される能力を指します。この動画では、中国の消費者が車載デジタル技術に高い関心を持ち、そのニーズが世界中の消費者にも広がっていることが示されています。

💡global expansion

グローバル展開とは、企業が世界中の市場に製品やサービスを提供することを指します。この動画では、中国の自動車メーカーが国内の市場をさらに拡大し、グローバルに展開を進めていることが言及されています。

💡Tesla

Teslaは、電気自動車とエネルギー解決策を提供するアメリカの企業です。この動画では、Teslaが中国市場に入ってきて、中国の自動車メーカーが生産する電動車の品質を向上させたことが強調されています。

💡industrial policy

産業政策とは、政府が国内の産業を支援・促進するために設定する政策や方針のことを指します。この動画では、北京政府が電動車の研究開発を支援し、中国の自動車メーカーが世界市場で競争力を得られるよう支援したことが言及されています。

Highlights

Volkswagen's electric ID.3 costs about 35,000 dollars in Germany after rebate, but less than half as much in China.

Volkswagen is caught in a price war in China, slashing prices to maintain market position due to fierce competition.

Foreign carmakers are losing ground in China as their sales slow and market share shrinks.

Chinese car companies are rising and preparing to sell their electric models globally, facing easier markets outside of China.

The success of big car brands in China is threatened by Beijing's strategic support for electric vehicles and the rise of Chinese EV companies.

Volkswagen's early dominance in China, with up to 50% of the passenger car market in the early 2000s, has led to a growing dependence on the Chinese market.

China's decision to fund R&D projects for battery EVs in 2001 marked a strategic shift towards new technology.

The introduction of consumer subsidies for electric vehicles in China and government support helped scale up the EV industry.

Tesla's entry into the Chinese market not only brought new competition but also raised the standards for Chinese suppliers.

Sales of passenger EVs in China soared by 170% in 2021, with China accounting for about half of all EV sales worldwide.

Chinese carmakers like BYD and Nio are now competitive with global EV leaders, offering faster build times, lower costs, and comparable quality.

Foreign carmakers face challenges with battery costs and software issues, which Chinese companies have managed to overcome more effectively.

Volkswagen's ID.3 faced criticism for its buggy and slow operating system, highlighting the software challenges faced by traditional carmakers.

Chinese consumers value digital connectivity and innovative features in cars, which domestic carmakers are better positioned to provide.

Volkswagen is investing more in Chinese tech and forming joint ventures to develop new models, showing a shift in strategy to adapt to the Chinese market.

Chinese carmakers are expanding globally, potentially posing a threat to established brands as they bring their competitive advantage to other markets.

The story of Volkswagen in China serves as a lesson for car companies not to rest on past accomplishments and to take industrial policies seriously.

Transcripts

Volkswagen’s electric ID.3: It’ll cost you  about 35,000 dollars in Germany – after  

rebate … and less than half as much  in China. For virtually the same car.

But why?

Volkswagen is caught in a price war in China:  Slashing prices in a desperate attempt to  

keep their position in the market.  Because the competition in China has  

become fierce …. and foreign carmakers are losing.

Their sales are slowing.

Their market share is shrinking.

And the reviews have been brutal:

I mean how the hell did  they come up with this @$%&!

Now it’s Chinese car companies that are on the  

rise – and preparing to shop their  electric models around the globe.

Any market they enter outside of China is going  to be easier than the Chinese market right now.

Why are the world’s biggest car  brands suddenly getting beat in China,  

their most important market? How much of  it is because Beijing did things right...

They know battery cars are much easier  and cheaper to build than engine cars.

And how much is because the  big carmakers did things wrong?

The batteries are not better  than their competitors. The  

software in many cases is actually worse.

We’ll answer those questions – and look  at how Chinese electric vehicles could  

reshuffle the global car industry …  on this episode of Business Beyond.

To understand what’s going on right now  in China, it’s helpful to understand how  

things began. One company in particular  is worth a closer look: Volkswagen.

Let’s go back to 1978. China had just  emerged from the cultural revolution.  

And was still quite poor. But it needed  vehicles. So, it turned here, to Germany.

One day a Chinese delegation, led by  the country’s minister for industry,  

simply showed up at Volkswagen  headquarters in Wolfsburg. Unannounced.

Nobody thought of China in 1978 because China  was closed for more than 40-years – isolated.

This is Felix Lee. He’s a former  China-correspondent for a German  

newspaper. In 1978, his father was working  as a department-head at Volkswagen.

Somebody from the main entrance asked him if he  still speaks Chinese because there is somebody  

here. He says he is the minister for mechanics  and for industry. And my father thought, ‘No way.’

China wanted trucks and buses  more than private-passenger cars,  

which Chinese households couldn’t yet afford. The  two sides eventually agreed on another approach.

My father had the idea, if you only sell  Volkswagen private cars as taxis, as cabs,  

and maybe for the government, by numbers  this will already be worth it for Volkswagen.

In 1984, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl  flew to China for the ground-laying of  

a new joint venture, Shanghai  Volkswagen Automotive Company.

Up to that point in time, only one other  company – Jeep – had tried a joint-venture  

in China after the Communist takeover. And it  hadn’t gone well. Volkswagen had more luck.

When you went to China in the 80s or the beginning  of the 90s, in Beijing and Shanghai all the cabs  

were Santanas, a Volkswagen. And that’s how  the business with China started for Volkswagen.

We all know what happened next: This very poor  country gradually -- and then quickly -- turned  

into an economic power. And as personal incomes  grew, so did the market for private cars.

Other companies like Toyota, GM and  Ford arrived after Volkswagen. But  

none were as successful as the German  company. Into the early 2000s Volkswagen  

still had a whopping 50 percent of the  Chinese passenger car market. (source)

A lot of Chinese really thought that was  their own car, because Volkswagen was so  

dominant at the beginning – especially at the  beginning of the economic rise. And of course,  

this was a big advantage until recently.  Volkswagen had the biggest share on the  

Chinese market because Volkswagen was the first.

But success in China carried its own risks for car  

companies. A growing dependence. For no  company was that truer than Volkswagen:  

As the years passed, more and more of  its sales were tied to one country.

Those sales, in turn, were all tied to  models with internal combustion engines.

China wanted its own car companies. But after  years of struggling to produce gas-engine models,  

it didn’t have much to show for its  efforts. It needed a new technology.

In 2001, China decided to fund  research and development projects  

for battery-EVs alongside fuel-cells and hybrid.

But the real move to electric only gained  traction years later. In 2008, a former auto  

engineer and a Tesla-fan named Wan Gang became  China’s minister of Science and Technology.

He had a technical background,  

and he came into the ministry of science and  technology with a clear thinking on this.

Ilaria Mazzocco has testified  before the US Congress about  

China’s industrial policy for electric vehicles.

So, the idea was, you know, if instead  a different technology takes over,  

there would be more of a level playing  field. And Chinese automakers would have  

a better chance of competing directly with  the western automakers. It was a gamble.

Gang’s ministry introduced China's first  consumer subsidies for electric vehicles.  

And -- just like with Volkswagen – it  connected EV companies to taxi fleets  

and government deals. Electric,  in other words, was getting scale.

When it was first introduced around 2009-2010,  

it was really a pet project coming out of  the Ministry of Science and Technology that  

wasn’t getting a lot of attention outside of  that ministry. By 2015 this has changed.

An entire supply-chain for electric  vehicles had emerged. It benefited from  

China’s industrial know-how, its battery  production, even its mineral refining.

Older companies like BYD – which used  to make batteries for phones – found new  

purpose in electric vehicles. Startups like  Leapmotor and Nio quickly gained prominence.

Beijing was there to help  its companies at every step,  

and not JUST with subsidies  and big government-purchases.

There’s a whole subset of non-explicit  types of support. Access to credit,  

that’s really important. Access to below-market  equity is also really important. In 2020,  

the Chinese company Nio was having a very  hard time, and it received an injection of  

funding from a local government which saved  it. And now the company is doing fairly well.

In other words, Beijing could  stabilize young companies with  

cheap capital or by purchasing shares.

There was just one problem  with China’s new EV market:  

The quality still wasn’t good enough to compete  globally – with the likes of, say, Tesla.

But that soon changed -- when Beijing  allowed Tesla to build in Shanghai.

This really started to shift when Tesla  entered the market and production started  

to scale up. And then 2020 when Giga-Shanghai  was really running, that’s really when the  

EV market took off. And I think a lot of  that was the appeal of Tesla as this new,  

iconic American brand that’s really shaping  up the market, through new sales channel,  

the kind of direct sales which is not something a  lot of Chinese companies were doing before then.

Tesla brought new competition to the Chinese  EV-market. But – significantly -- it also  

raised the standards for Chinese suppliers. Now  they had to create electronics and components to  

Tesla’s specifications. And that meant they now  could offer similar quality to Chinese carmakers.

Until Tesla came, Chinese carmakers were always  seen as cheap. And they can produce very cheap,  

and this is definitely an advantage,  but they don’t have much this luxury  

prestige. And when Tesla came, their  production of electric cars was also  

much cheaper as what Volkswagen does.  But they sold it on a premium level,  

they sold it as a luxury car. And this  changed the conception of an electric vehicle.

Suddenly Chinese cars had checked-off all  the major boxes: They were faster to build,  

less expensive than their competitors. And their  

quality was comparable – if  not better in many cases.

In 2021, sales of passenger EVs in China soared  -- by a whopping 170-percent from the year before,  

to about 3 million vehicles. About half of all  EVs sales worldwide that year took place in China.

Top seller? BYD. Tesla was number three. Electric  hadn't just arrived in China. It was finally being  

driven by Chinese companies … who were suddenly  competitive with the world’s top EV producer.

Still, none of the traditional carmakers  appeared worried. Volkswagen, Toyota,  

Honda for example, had the benefit  of scale over Chinese carmakers and  

Tesla. So eventually they'd dominate  the volume market for EVs. Right?

Not really.

And this has become an emblem  of what went wrong. Well,  

not karaoke like this. But  karaoke in a car – like this.

The thing is the big carmakers  had several problems when it came  

to electric vehicles. Battery costs,  for one. But also, software. (PAUSE)

It turns out that companies with good engineers  weren’t necessarily good at programming.

That became clear when Volkswagen  rolled out the ID.3 in 2021 -- its  

first EV-hatchback set on a purpose-built chassis.

The operating system turned out to be buggy. It  was slow. And the updates had to be installed  

at the dealership. Chinese car companies, by  comparison, were already doing updates remotely.

The ID.3’s problems weren’t  lost on Chinese reviewers.

Compared with BYD or SAIC, you have to swear  

at the onboard system from ID 3.  Otherwise, you’re being too nice.

The ID 3 onboard-system -- you have to tell it  off. But I wasn’t surprised. Maybe that’s what  

I expected. I never had any expectations  for this VW system so for a Volkswagen-EV,  

it’s just the "normal" that I expected.

Other foreign carmakers also faced problems:  

Both Mercedes and Toyota have issued  recalls in China over software issues.

And even Tesla has seen a major  recall due to its own software.

But beyond glitches, many of the new  EVs were frankly more limited than  

their Chinese rivals. There were fewer fun  apps. Like selfie-cameras... or karaoke.

Karaoke is of course just a symbol of it,  

how good especially on software these  new tech companies are. For them,  

the car is software on wheels, or batteries on  wheels. And they think completely different.

I think at the moment the software,  the digital connectivity of the car is  

becoming so much more important for Chinese  consumers. Often they don’t really go long  

distances. They don’t necessarily need a  powerful car if they’re stuck in traffic  

in Beijing or Shanghai, where a lot of  these vehicles are sold at the moment.

For Volkswagen executives, karaoke became  a kind of symbol for early mistakes -- a  

shorthand for software problems as well as a  misreading of the Chinese market altogether.

Admitting you have a problem is the first  step, right? But software issues still plague  

the big carmakers, including Volkswagen,  Toyota or Honda. And again, that's just  

part of a larger picture of why they’ve become  less attractive to the market -- from price,  

to reliability and features – and even a growing  nationalism in the Chinese consumer market.

Volkswagen doesn’t really have any distinguishing  features that really set them apart from other  

car makers. The batteries are not better than  their competitors. The software in many cases is  

actually worse. So why would you buy a Volkswagen  if you could get a BYD for a cheaper price?

One solution? Lower the price.

Which brings us back to today – prices have  indeed been falling fast in recent months. But  

less as a strategy than a necessity: The  Chinese market is now so overcrowded,  

that carmakers are resorting to desperate  measures to hold on to market share.

Volkswagen sales actually jumped in  August, because of those prices. But  

its overall market share continues to fall  as customers buy fewer non-electric models.

After years of hovering around 15-percent market  

share in China – Volkswagen fell  to close to 11 percent last year.

The big Japanese carmakers – including Toyota and  

Honda – have done even worse  – losing close to six percent.

And then, for the first half of this year:  

BYD overtook Volkswagen as  the number one brand in China.

It’s fair to say the big car companies  have learned a painful lesson:  

Don’t rest on your past accomplishments.

And be careful about underestimating  Beijing’s industrial policies.

My sense was that western automakers,  western executives were consistently  

surprised that this policy was moving  forward. They felt that this was,  

they didn’t feel this was realistic  and they were consistently surprised  

that Chinese automakers did take this  seriously and put in R&D and succeeded.

Volkswagen is moving quickly to repair the  damage – by investing more in Chinese tech.

It’s set up two new joint ventures  in the past few months – one with  

Chinese software maker Thundersoft …  and another with Chinese carmaker XPENG,  

which will it help it develop  two new models by 2026.

I think Volkswagen is taking some really unusual  steps right now, also that really set them apart  

from other carmakers that are also struggling. For  instance, the Japanese car makers. Toyota has the  

tie-up with BYD, but there’s nothing really of the  intensity we see from Volkswagen…so I think this  

is really showing that Volkswagen is really eager  not to lose their position in the Chinese market.

The problem is that carmakers have lost precious  time – and now the other shoe is dropping.

That crowded Chinese market is now pushing  domestic carmakers there to look globally.  

And if the Chinese market is any sign, it's  going to spell more trouble for the big brands.

Just look at this year’s IAA auto show  in Munich, where BYD was one of the  

most anticipated exhibitors. It unveiled  five new models for the European market.

Chinese carmakers are betting  that consumers around the  

world --- and not just in China --  want more digitally connected cars.

The Chinese consumer is perhaps going to be,  

let’s put it this way, the bellwether for what  other consumers globally is going to want.

And it’s all unfolding right now. How  it pans out in the end … will likely be  

the topic of another Business  Beyond. We’ll see you then.