Morning Blast (2nd October) - Join Michael and Ryan for an explosive daily market preview

Summary

The transcript is from a live trading session hosted by Ryan Paisey and Michael Brown, discussing market movements, geopolitical tensions, and economic updates. They focus on the Israel-Iran conflict, missile attacks, and the potential for retaliation. They touch on market reactions, such as safe-haven assets rising and oil prices fluctuating. Additionally, they review economic data, including Eurozone inflation and U.S. job openings. The hosts provide commentary on central bank decisions and upcoming events, while also adding some lighthearted banter throughout the session.

Takeaways

• 🌅 The session starts with greetings and an ACDC 'Thunderstruck' reference to energize the group.
• ☕ The host, Ryan Paisey, jokes about being awake for hours and fueled by coffee, while Michael Brown is running on minimal sleep.
• ⚖️ A disclaimer is given that nothing in the session constitutes investment advice or endorsements from PIQ Global.
• 📰 Key geopolitical news includes Iran launching missiles towards Israel, with mixed reports on their effectiveness, and no major injuries reported.
• 🇮🇱 Israel is expected to retaliate strongly, possibly targeting oil facilities inside Iran, with eyes on further escalation and potential US involvement.
• 📉 Markets reacted to the geopolitical events with risk-off moves, pushing down the S&P by 1% and the NASDAQ by 1.5%, alongside a rise in Treasury yields and gold prices.
• 💼 Eurozone inflation data was released, indicating continued disinflation, supporting the idea of an ECB rate cut in the near future.
• 🛢️ Oil prices are volatile, with Brent crude rising above $75 a barrel due to supply concerns amidst the Middle East conflict.
• 🇺🇸 US labor market data showed a rise in job openings, while the ISM Manufacturing Survey revealed a stable but sluggish manufacturing sector.
• 📢 The day ahead will focus on more geopolitical developments, central bank speakers, and the ADP employment report, although its correlation to the official payrolls data is weak.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the conversation in the transcript?

The conversation primarily focuses on recent geopolitical events, particularly the missile strikes between Iran and Israel, and how these events are impacting the financial markets.

Who are the main speakers in the transcript?

The main speakers are Ryan Paisey and Michael Brown, discussing current geopolitical events, financial markets, and market trends.

What geopolitical event is being discussed in detail?

The missile attacks launched by Iran towards Israel, and the subsequent political and military tensions in the Middle East, are discussed in detail.

What is the role of PIQ Global in the conversation?

PIQ Global is the platform hosting the discussion, with the speakers providing updates and analyses on global financial markets. It is clarified that no investment advice is being offered during the session.

What impact did the missile attacks have on the financial markets?

The missile attacks led to a 'risk-off' market reaction, where investors moved towards safer assets. This caused the S&P to fall by 1%, the NASDAQ by 1.5%, and treasury yields to drop.

How did oil prices react to the geopolitical tensions mentioned?

Oil prices increased as a result of the tensions, with WTI crude rising 2.5% and trading at $72 per barrel at one point, while Brent crude also saw a 3% increase.

What were the key economic indicators mentioned during the session?

The speakers mentioned Eurozone inflation data, U.S. job openings (JOLTS report), ISM manufacturing data, and upcoming employment figures from the U.S. (ADP employment report).

What specific comment did Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu make in response to the Iranian missile attacks?

Netanyahu stated that Iran had made a 'big mistake' and promised that they would pay for the attack. He also said that the missile attack failed.

How did the U.S. respond to the missile strikes, according to the transcript?

The U.S. indicated that it would respond if its troops became targets in the conflict. U.S. bases in Iraq were mentioned as potential targets if the U.S. took military action.

What future market movements or events are expected based on the conversation?

The speakers expect markets to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, with potential retaliations from Israel and uncertainty about U.S. involvement likely affecting risk assets. They also discuss the possibility of central bank rate cuts in response to economic data.