Fixing climate change is about to accelerate

Summary

视频讲述了“正面临的气候拐点”，其中一些是负面的，另一些是正面的。通过探讨社会和技术拐点的概念，视频重点介绍了如何通过政策干预加速低碳转型，例如电动汽车的普及和太阳能的推广等。中国和挪威等国家的成功案例表明，正面拐点可以带来巨大的变化，并推动全球能源转型。然而，视频也强调了应对这些变化所带来的负面影响，特别是在煤炭行业，并提出了关于如何制定这些政策的讨论。观众被鼓励思考谁应该决定这些拐点的推进。

Takeaways

• 🌍 气候临界点指的是系统在达到某个点后，微小的变化可能导致系统发生巨大变化。
• ❄️ 负面的气候临界点包括北极永冻层融化释放甲烷或大西洋环流关闭，可能导致欧洲进入冰河期。
• ⚡ 积极的气候临界点是社会或技术系统的小变化，能自我推动进入低碳状态，例如电动车的普及。
• 🚗 电动车的销售增长呈S形曲线，最初很少人购买，但随着更多人接受，销售急剧上升并最终趋于稳定。
• 🇳🇴 挪威已经达到了电动车的临界点，电动车数量超过了内燃机车，94%的新车是电动的。
• 🔋 科学家识别出多个潜在的社会临界点，可能在未来15到30年内触发，这包括碳中和城市、化石燃料支持减少等。
• 🌞 可再生能源的成本下降意味着我们已经在电力生产领域达到了临界点，太阳能和电池的部署大幅超出预测。
• 🇨🇳 中国在太阳能部署方面表现尤为突出，去年新增的太阳能容量超过美国历史总量。
• 💡 智能的政府政策干预能加速达到这些积极的气候临界点，例子包括中国政府对太阳能公司的贷款政策。
• 🤔 需要深入思考谁应该决定如何推动这些变化，科学家、政客或公众的角色应该如何平衡。

Q & A

什么是气候正向临界点？

气候正向临界点是指一个小的变化能够引发系统自我推动的临界点。例如，电动车购买量增加会促使更多人购买，从而推动整个市场向电动车转型。

哪些例子可以说明气候正向临界点的影响？

电动车的普及是一个例子。以挪威为例，目前94%以上的新车为电动车。这种普及表明挪威的交通部门已经达到了一个正向临界点。

什么是S曲线，它如何描述电动车的普及？

S曲线是一种描述技术采用的曲线，起初采用率较低，但随着正反馈效应的出现，曲线迅速上升，最后趋于平稳，因为市场逐渐饱和。

为何电力生产成为一个关键的气候正向临界点？

可再生能源，如太阳能和风能，成本迅速下降，使其成为许多地区最便宜的能源。这推动了电力生产向低碳能源的转型，进而降低了整体能源使用的碳排放。

中国如何推动全球太阳能电力生产的正向临界点？

中国通过大量投资于太阳能发电设备，尤其是太阳能电池板的生产，大幅降低了全球太阳能的生产成本，从而推动了全球太阳能电力的快速增长。

如何通过政策干预加速正向临界点的实现？

政府可以通过政策干预加速临界点的到来。例如，中国通过提供低风险贷款支持太阳能公司，帮助降低太阳能电力的成本。

什么是超级杠杆点，它如何加速多个领域的转型？

超级杠杆点是指一个小的政策干预可以引发多个系统同时转型。例如，煤炭逐步淘汰政策会促进更廉价的可再生能源的使用，从而推动电力、电动汽车和其他行业的转型。

电动汽车的普及对其他领域有何影响？

电动汽车普及可以降低电池成本，进而影响电网、运输和供热等多个领域，使这些领域更快地转型为低碳能源。

哪些其他领域也可能达到正向临界点？

其他可能达到正向临界点的领域包括碳中和城市的建设、公众对气候变化的意识提升、低碳能源的更高经济回报等。

如何应对达到正向临界点后可能带来的负面影响？

例如，逐步淘汰煤炭可能对煤炭行业的就业造成负面影响，因此在制定这些政策时需要考虑受影响的人群，确保这些转型的过程是公平的。

Outlines

00:00

🌍 气候转折点及其影响

本段介绍了气候转折点的概念，即系统在某个临界点后，由于微小的变化会发生剧变，进而影响整个系统。以北极永冻土融化和大西洋经向翻转环流停止为例，展示了负面转折点对气候的巨大影响。与此同时，提到了科学家希望实现的“正面转折点”，即通过小的社会或技术变革，引发自我推动的正反馈循环，像电动汽车的普及一样，使低碳技术成为主流。

05:01

🚗 电动汽车的指数增长与全球趋势

电动汽车的普及是正反馈循环的典型例子。随着更多人购买电动汽车，其他人也受到了影响并加入购买行列，导致市场快速增长。以挪威为例，该国超过94%的新车为电动汽车，显示出该国在交通领域的转折点。虽然美国和中国的电动汽车普及度不同，但全球都在迈向电动化，尤其是中国已超过50%的新车为电动汽车，显示了全球范围内的转变。

10:02

🌱 六个气候转折点及其重要性

本段介绍了科学家们识别出的六个社会和技术领域的气候转折点，包括碳足迹意识、公众反对化石燃料、金融资本从化石燃料撤资、城市实现碳中和以及可再生能源的经济回报高于化石燃料。其中，能源转折点尤为关键，因为能源系统支撑着整个文明，且目前可再生能源的成本已经大幅降低。

15:02

⚡ 能源转折点的到来

虽然目前仅在电力生产领域达到了能源转折点，但其他领域如交通和工业仍处于初步阶段。电力占总能耗的比重逐渐上升，这对实现低碳未来至关重要。中国的快速太阳能扩展是能源领域转折点的一个例子，政府政策和太阳能价格的下跌促成了这一发展。此外，政府的政策干预在推动转折点的过程中起到了决定性作用，例如中国政府的低风险贷款政策使太阳能技术变得更加便宜。

🎯 政策干预加速气候转折点

政府政策能够通过精准干预加速正面转折点的实现。例如，加速煤炭淘汰有助于降低电力成本，从而推动多个领域的电气化。通过精准设计的干预措施，例如强制使用绿色氨生产肥料或推广电动汽车，可能引发多领域的转折点级联效应，带来巨大的气候变化益处。

🧠 社会影响与决策的复杂性

虽然正面气候转折点的实现可能带来巨大好处，但也不可忽视其中的负面影响，尤其是对煤炭行业的就业造成的冲击。因此，谁来决定哪些转折点应被优先考虑是一个重要问题。作者提出，应该让科学家或政治家来做出这些决定，还是应该通过民主进程解决，值得探讨。作者认为，若不现在做出决策，未来的决策可能会更加糟糕。

⚖️ 气候转折点的学术争议

尽管大多数学者承认气候转折点的存在，但对其数量和影响存在争议。一些社会科学家批评物理科学家对转折点的研究过于广泛或不够严谨，并认为这种研究背后的动机是希望通过找到加速变化的杠杆点来应对迫在眉睫的危机。尽管如此，作者依然认为积极的气候转折点的存在是真实的，且政策干预可能会加速这些转折点的实现。

🔥 转折点与未来的挑战

正如有负面气候转折点一样，也有积极的社会和技术转折点。然而，不能过于依赖少数政策干预来解决气候变化问题。向低碳未来的转变将是艰难的，涉及各个行业的长期努力。尽管如此，在某些领域，如能源领域，已经取得了快速进展。未来的政策干预可能会进一步推动气候转折点的级联效应。

💡 Nebula平台上的独家内容

作者最后介绍了他在Nebula平台上的独家内容，并鼓励观众支持创作者。他提到Nebula作为一个无广告的平台，为观众提供了更好的观看体验，同时直接支持创作者的工作。作者还介绍了其他内容创作者和节目，强调了在这个平台上观看视频对支持独立创作的重要性。

Keywords

💡临界点

临界点是指一个系统中的某一时刻或状态，当达到这一点时，微小的变化可能会引发剧烈的、不可逆的转变。在视频中，临界点不仅用于气候变化的物理层面，还被扩展为社会或技术层面的转变，如电动汽车的普及加速了新能源的使用。

💡气候临界点

气候临界点是指全球变暖超过某个特定的阈值时，气候系统将发生突变性变化，如北极永冻土融化释放大量甲烷，或大西洋环流关闭引发极端气候。视频通过例子说明气候临界点对环境的潜在巨大影响。

💡正面临界点

正面临界点是指通过小的改变能够触发系统的积极变化，并推动整个系统向更可持续的方向发展。视频中提到电动汽车的普及和可再生能源的广泛使用是正面临界点的例子，这些变化可以推动更多的低碳经济发展。

💡电动汽车

电动汽车不仅仅是替代传统燃油车的技术变革，更是推动低碳社会转型的重要一环。视频中提到，电动汽车的普及展示了如何通过个人选择和政策干预，激发社会技术系统的正面临界点，并最终改变整个交通行业。

💡社会临界点

社会临界点是指在人们的观念或行为上发生的转变，可能引发广泛的社会变革。视频中，社会对气候变化的认知提高，以及公众对化石燃料的反感，都可能成为推动气候行动的重要社会临界点。

💡能源转型

能源转型是指从传统的化石燃料向可再生能源的过渡。视频中讨论了通过政府政策、技术进步和市场力量，如何实现太阳能、风能等清洁能源成为主流，达到能源系统的临界点，从而大幅减少碳排放。

💡清洁能源

清洁能源指的是不会产生二氧化碳排放的能源，如太阳能、风能等。视频特别提到太阳能价格的大幅下降和全球范围内的广泛部署，使清洁能源成为现代能源结构中的核心力量，并已达到关键的临界点。

💡政策干预

政策干预是指政府通过实施特定的政策来推动或加速某个系统的变化。视频中提到，中国政府对太阳能行业的政策支持，使太阳能成为全球最便宜的电力来源，成功推动了太阳能技术的临界点。

💡电气化

电气化是指通过电力来取代其他能源形式的过程，特别是在交通、工业和农业等领域。视频中强调了电气化是降低碳排放的关键步骤之一，因为电力可以通过清洁能源产生，从而减少整体的碳强度。

💡超级杠杆点

超级杠杆点指的是通过一次精准的政策或技术干预，可以引发多个系统的快速连锁反应式转变。视频中以电动汽车为例，说明该技术不仅能改善交通领域，还可以降低电力成本，进而推动其他领域的电气化和去碳化。

Highlights

Tipping points in climate systems can lead to dramatic changes, both positive and negative.

Positive climate tipping points involve small changes triggering self-propelling systems, such as the rise of electric vehicles.

Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating, with countries like Norway leading the way.

Key tipping points include the carbon footprint awareness and cities becoming carbon-neutral.

Renewables like solar energy have reached a tipping point in many parts of the world, becoming the cheapest energy source.

China's significant investment in solar energy has led to massive growth in renewable electricity capacity.

Super leverage points like coal phase-out and electric vehicle mandates could trigger tipping points across multiple sectors.

The electrification of various sectors, powered by renewables, can drastically reduce carbon emissions.

Renewable energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels in many regions, signaling a tipping point in global energy markets.

Battery technology innovations, especially in electric vehicles, can benefit both the transport and energy sectors.

Government policies have been instrumental in accelerating the growth of solar energy, particularly in China.

Targeted interventions can accelerate tipping points in sectors like energy, transport, and carbon-neutral cities.

Scientists emphasize that tipping points, both positive and negative, are crucial to addressing climate change.

Social tipping points, like public opinion turning against fossil fuels, play a key role in climate action.

The transition to a low-carbon future is already happening, but further government interventions could speed up progress.

Transcripts

you've probably heard of a Tipping Point

right A system that has a point Beyond

which just a small change can suddenly

dramatically change the whole

system you may have heard of climate

tipping points for example if the world

warms too much Arctic permafrost might

melt releasing tons of methane into the

atmosphere or the Atlantic meridianal

overturning circulation might shut down

plunging Europe back into Ice Age

conditions but did you know there are

also climate tipping points that

scientists want us to hit they're called

a positive Tipping Point is a point

where a small change can have a

disproportionate effect after which the

system becomes self-propelling to be

extremely clear these tipping points are

not physical like the circulation in the

Atlantic or the Amazon rainforest dying

back instead these are social or

technological tipping points so for

instance if one more person buys an

electric vehicle that creates a positive

interaction with other people making

this the dominant technology really good

example not that long ago there were

barely any electric vehicles on the road

and so when somebody bought one and

drove it around it showed other people

that these things existed but also that

they were cheap to run that they didn't

produce any tailpipe emissions and that

they were quiet and that made other

people more likely to buy one and that

effect only became more pronounced the

more people bought electric cars if we

put time on our horizontal axis and

electric vehicle uptake on our vertical

axis then uptake will look something

like this over time to begin with

basically nobody is buying electric

vehicles but as that positive feedback

loop starts to kick in driver starts

seeing other electric vehicles on the

road then the curve starts shooting

upwards eventually it gets really really

steep which can't last forever it has to

level out like this because eventually

everybody's going to have an electric

car the system has changed to a new

state if that sounds ridiculous to you

as an example you might want to look at

Norway electric cars now outnumber cars

with internal combustion engines in

Norway and in July this year over 94% of

all new cars bought there were electric

the transport sector in Norway reached a

Tipping Point I made a whole video about

why there specifically on nebula and

other countries are on a similar

trajectory sure the US for example is

down here on the S curve less than 10%

of new vehicles bought in the US this

year were electric vehicles but China is

about here more than 50% of new vehicles

bought in China this year were electric

but electric vehicle uptake isn't the

only low carbon system with a Tipping

Point scientists have identified several

Key Systems relevant to climate where

change can be modeled as an S

curve we'll come back to that where

we're seeing the early stages of exponen

potential growth with a huge shift a

Tipping Point on the horizon so what are

these systems this paper interviewed

experts from across Academia and

identified six climate tipping points

that could be reached in the next 15 to

30 years though the paper doesn't call

them tipping points they instead call

them social tipping elements

because Academia these tipping points

were more information becoming available

about our carbon footprint increased

awareness and understanding of climate

change oh hey that's what I public

opinion turning against fossil fuels the

withdrawal of financial support for

fossil fuel extraction I made a whole

video about that cities becoming carbon

neutral I just made a video about this

and low carbon energy yielding higher

Financial returns for producers than

energy produced by burning fossil fuels

that last one is seen as particularly

important because energy literally

underwrites civilization unfortunately

however we are still a way off that

Tipping Point psych we're already there

this paper was published in 2021 back

when they said of this energy Tipping

Point the empirical data show that this

critical threshold is about to be

reached the prices of Renewables have

dropped sharply in the last few years

and they have already become the

cheapest source of energy in many world

regions this year the International

Energy agency estimates that $3 trillion

will be spent on energy and of that 3

trillion 2 trillion will be spent on

clean energy and infrastructure total

spending on renewable

and grids is for the first time greater

than total spending on oil coal and gas

the positive Tipping Point in energy has

been reached and we can see that really

clearly in this report from nonprofit

RMI which found clear exponential growth

in global solar deployment and battery

cells far outpacing any previous

predictions we're currently living in

the Steep part of the energy scurve

though it is important to note that

energy doesn't just mean electricity

energy use means electricity use but

also transport heating cooling

industrial applications agriculture

loads of different sectors the energy

Tipping Point that we have reached is

really a Tipping Point in electricity

production the carbon intensity of other

uses of energy especially transport has

basically remained the same though the

fraction of all the energy we use that

comes from electricity has been steadily

increasing which is great news because

if you can elect fire sector and then

power it through Renewables you can

really lower its carbon intensity and

make it much more efficient and if you

want an example of where this is

happening really quickly look at China

China has recently rolled out a truly

staggering quantity of Renewables

especially solar last year they added

more solar capacity than the US has in

its entire history the reason for this

is because the price of solar panels

especially Chinese solar panels has

plummeted solar electricity is now the

cheapest form of energy for lots of

applications hence why the Chinese

energy economy is becoming increasingly

electrified but cheap Chinese solar

panels isn't just good news for China so

because China is one of the main

producers the price the cost to to

produce electricity has become quite

similar in different countries because

most countries imported from China which

means that in some sense we have more of

a global tipping points than in some

other sectors like heat pumps which have

very highly variable prices across

countries that said some technologies

like wind for instance do have European

producers that produce for very low

costs as well but we didn't just hit

that solar Tipping Point with cheap

solar panels and exponential uptake by

Chance the authors of this paper and

scientists more generally are Keen to

stress that we don't just need to wait

for these tipping points to happen in

fact through smart government policy we

can accelerate our progress towards them

and our way down the S curve with

targeted

interventions get away for example how

exactly did solar panels become so cheap

I'm oversimplifying but starting in the

late 2000s the Chinese government

started providing large cheap lowrisk

loans to Chinese solar companies which

took those loans scaled up their

operations started to benefit from

economies of scale and invested in R&D

and the result are solar panels that are

10 times cheaper now than they were at

the start of the century it was a

government policy designed to intervene

in the Solar Market obviously to benefit

Chinese interests but also to bring down

the cost of solar electricity and other

such interventions are known to exist

going back to the 2021 paper

interventions that could accelerate us

hitting the non-energy Tipping points

include the creation of specifically

carbon neutral cities inspiring building

codes elsewhere promoting the investment

movement reducing the value of fossil

fuel assets simulations suggests just 9%

of investors divesting from fossil fuels

could be enough to tip the whole system

and improving resources available to

Educators about climate change but why

stop with just trying to flip one system

into a new state what if you could

design a small precise intervention that

would cause a Tipping Point Cascade

multiple systems one after another

flipping into new stes well FEMA has

just released a new paper on what she

calls super leverage points so we

identified two super leverage points in

uh in our work one is a call phase out

if we can accelerate a call phase out

depending on on how far countries are

along and force countries to use cheaper

solar and wind and batteries then that

can drive down electricity costs which

because we're electrifying everything

has rep Rion in all the other sectors a

previous study also found that mandating

fertilizers be produced with a certain

fraction of green ammonia so that's

ammonia produced with hydrogen made

through renewable electricity as another

Super leverage point because that would

mean through economies of scale green

hydrogen becomes more affordable and so

hydrogen-based Solutions in other

sectors like shipping and steel become

more viable though still not heating

houses just get in the bin with that

idea but the other super leverage point

identified in this new study which was

the first one to quantitatively look for

these tipping points in the electricity

sector is a mandate for electric

vehicles if you put such a mandate in

place this has repercussions on all

three other sectors we studied so for

the trucks it's quite simple it's the

same or very similar technology so

innovation in one technology will also

lead to innovation in the truck phace

the second one is that the battery in

cars can be used in the power sector in

three ways so you've got vehicle to grid

applications you've got a secondhand

Market of these batteries and the third

one is that you also have battery that

you would buy for your grid independent

of these cars and you can use those uh

Insight from Innovation from cars for

your power sector applications so that

becomes cheaper which also means that

electric cars become cheaper heat poops

become cheaper because electricity is

cheaper but just a minute minute I I'm

going to do something that I don't

usually do in these videos I'm going to

step outside of the discussion I'm going

to need a coat hang on we are talking

about making changes to society that

will have huge impacts and this is

something that is a constant Factor when

you're talking about climate stuff but

it feels especially pointed here because

you're by Design talking about making

the smallest possible changes to produce

the largest possible impact and while we

call them positive tipping points we

can't ignore the fact that there will be

negative consequences associated with

hitting some of them for example if you

phase out coal then that's going to

negatively impact people who are

employed in the coal industry and that

can be entire areas now I'm not trying

to say that we shouldn't have a coal

phase out because I very much think it

is a net positive thing to do but we

can't ignore those negative consequences

so the question of who gets to decide

which tipping points are targeted and in

what Manner is an important one should

it be politicians designing these

policies or should it be scientists if

so which politicians which scientists

should this be a democratic process

where everybody get a vote because this

will impact everyone or is democracy too

slow to implement change at the pace

that we need the Tipping points group at

the University of exter has the

statement in one of their papers that if

we don't decide this stuff now the

future will decide for us and that

version of the future will almost

certainly be worse for us I don't think

many people would disagree with that but

it still sidesteps the question of who

exactly gets to decide I would be very

interested in what you have to say about

this please leave a comment with who you

think gets to decide this stuff because

everybody should have an opinion about

this this is huge stuff we're talking

about that will impact everyone and I'm

just a physical scientist by training

I'm not a political or social scientist

let alone a philosopher who do I think

has the right to make this decision I I

can't say I don't know what I can say in

this video is that the world is

currently hurtling towards various

tipping points and we're likely closer

to many of them than you think and while

many of those tipping points are

negative some of them are positive and

if we hit those ones first it could

profoundly change how we live our lives

and how much damage we do to our

planet oh uh yeah not everybody agrees

on what is and isn't a Tipping Point and

some social scientists argue that

physical scientists are borrowing

techniques from their field and

implementing them sloppily or too

broadly or without a full enough

understanding of the literature and they

suggest that one of the reasons why

physical scientists are doing this is

because it gives them it gives us hope

the sustainability imperative that

dominates much of Global Science and

governance processes today combined with

the sense that we are running out of

time is a key motivator for social

tipping research and it's success in

review processes as the possibility of

failure is looming larger every day we

are eager to find new levers of change

that can speed things up and Trigger

rapid Transformations towards new

sustainable stable States and there are

certainly some dubious studies that draw

historical parallels that I'm not

convinced are necessarily appropriate

and maybe assume a level of control over

some systems that we can't be sure that

we have I'm mentioning this for

completeness sake I'm not trying to say

that tipping points don't exist I think

they do I think most academics would

agree with me but perhaps they are not

as numerous as they are in the

literature and I do think that we need

to be careful in how we discuss them but

here's the rub just as there are

physical negative climate tipping points

that we don't want to hit there are

social and technological positive

climate tipping points that we do

however we cannot fall into the trap in

discussing these positive tipping points

that we can somehow fix climate change

with just a few targeted policy

interventions people have just got to

stop believing in nudge Theory it

doesn't work the transition to a low

carbon future is going to be hard it's

going to take a lot of work and time

across basically every sector

but it's already happening and in

certain sectors progress can leap and

indeed is leaping forwards and maybe

just maybe in these sectors there are a

few government policies that if properly

enacted can cause not just a Tipping

Point in one area but a Tipping Point

Cascade and I don't think the hope we

can take from that idea is a false one

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