Market Commentary 07 APR 2024

Summary

The speaker discusses their trading activities over the week, highlighting the importance of understanding market maker models and price action. They emphasize the significance of identifying key support and resistance levels, as well as optimal trade entries and exits. The narrative also touches on the impact of news releases on market volatility and the benefits of focusing on a single asset and time window for more consistent trading results. The speaker concludes by advocating a disciplined approach to trading, suggesting that contentment with smaller gains and strict risk management can lead to long-term profitability.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker reviews their trades for the week, highlighting a mix of wins and losses.
• 📊 Emphasis on the importance of price action and understanding market behavior within specific time frames.
• 🛠️ Utilization of the market maker model to identify sell and buy sets of the curve for potential trading opportunities.
• 🔄 Focus on the reaccumulation area within the market maker model to predict future price movements.
• 📌 Identification of 'optimal trade entries' and 'return to equilibrium' points for high probability trades.
• 📈 'Bullish institutional order flow' is characterized by breaking highs and protected lows, using down close candles as support.
• 📊 The significance of volume imbalance and liquidity levels in confirming market trends and potential reversal points.
• ⏰ Timing is crucial, with news releases and market sessions like London and New York overlap being key for price movements.
• 🚫 Avoidance of trading high-risk events like NFP due to potential for significant losses in a short time.
• 🎯 Focusing on a single asset and time window can lead to more consistent results and less analysis paralysis.
• 💡 The importance of risk management, setting clear rules for when to engage, how much to risk, and taking breaks after wins or losses.

Q & A

What was the speaker's overall performance for the week in terms of trading?

The speaker had a positive week in terms of trading, with two trades on Monday and Wednesday, one win and one loss. The other days, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, were also good.

What trading strategy was the speaker using based on the market maker model?

The speaker was using a strategy that involved identifying sell and buy sets of the curve based on the market maker model. They were looking for reaccumulation within specific areas and projecting price movements from the sell set to the buy set of the curve.

How did the speaker analyze the market on Monday?

On Monday, the speaker analyzed the market by looking at the previous week's down close candle, which indicated manipulation for the week. They were waiting for the market to complete the market maker model by expanding on Monday, which indeed happened.

What news-related aspect did the speaker mention as being important for market timing?

The speaker emphasized the importance of high impact news for market timing. They mentioned that while they do not care about the fundamentals behind the news, the timing aspect is crucial for capitalizing on market movements.

What was the speaker's approach to trading on Tuesday and how did it differ from Monday?

On Tuesday, the speaker observed that the market ran below Monday's low, filling the buy side imbalance. This was different from Monday's approach, which was based on the completion of the market maker model. Tuesday's trade was more about reversing the previous day's low and exploiting the new imbalance.

How did the speaker use the concept of 'bullish institutional order flow' in their analysis?

The speaker used the concept of 'bullish institutional order flow' by looking for signs of breaking highs and protected lows. They used this concept to identify areas of potential accumulation and to confirm their analysis of the market's behavior.

What time frame did the speaker find most effective for identifying optimal trade entries?

The speaker found the 5-minute time frame most effective for identifying optimal trade entries, as it provided a clearer view of price movements and allowed for more precise annotations and analysis.

What did the speaker advise regarding the approach to trading NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) news releases?

The speaker advised against trading NFP news releases due to the high risk of ruin. They mentioned that the volatility and liquidity issues during such events can lead to significant losses in a very short time.

What is the speaker's philosophy on handling losses in trading?

The speaker's philosophy on handling losses is to be happy to take a loss because it means they are done for the day. They emphasize the importance of not being worried about losses and focusing on the long-term gains that consistent trading strategies will yield.

What advice does the speaker give for traders struggling with consistency?

The speaker advises struggling traders to focus on one asset, one time window, and one strict approach. They suggest aiming for 20 to 30 pips during the New York session and being content with one to three good trading days per week.

How does the speaker suggest managing risk in trading?

The speaker suggests managing risk by having clear rules and protocols for when to engage, how much to risk, and how often to expose oneself to risk. They emphasize the importance of controlling one's risk and not being overly fixated on the potential gains of each trade.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Analysis and Trade Review

The speaker begins by providing a brief introduction to their trading activities for the week, highlighting the weather's influence on their willingness to engage with the charts. They proceed to discuss specific trades taken throughout the week, noting the outcomes of each. The speaker then delves into a detailed analysis of the market maker model, explaining the sell and buy sets of the curve and how they project into each other. They also discuss the importance of news in influencing market movements and the identification of institutional order flow signs, using specific days of the week as examples to illustrate their points.

05:02

🕒 Timing and News Impact on Trading

This paragraph focuses on the timing aspect of trading, emphasizing the anticipation of news releases and their impact on market movements. The speaker explains how the market reacts to news, particularly high-impact news, and how traders can use this to their advantage. They discuss the significance of certain hours of the day, such as the New York session open, and how these moments can present optimal trade entries. The speaker also talks about the concept of 'breaker swings' and how they can be identified and utilized in trading strategies.

10:03

📊 Market Behavior and Optimal Trade Entries

The speaker continues their analysis by discussing the market's behavior in relation to support and resistance levels, as well as optimal trade entries. They explain how market manipulation can be identified through certain candlestick patterns and how traders can use these insights to their advantage. The paragraph also touches on the concept of 'fractal lows' and 'fractal highs' in the context of the 50-minute chart, and how these can be used to identify potential trade opportunities. The speaker provides a detailed walkthrough of how to identify and act on these opportunities, using specific examples from the market.

15:05

🌐 Understanding Market Maker Models

In this paragraph, the speaker delves deeper into the understanding of market maker models and how they can be used to predict market behavior. They discuss the concept of 'distortion of time' within these models and how it can be observed in the market's price movements. The speaker also talks about the importance of recognizing buy and sell days, and how these can be identified through the market's daily, weekly, and even 15-second charts. They emphasize the consistency of logic across different time frames and how this can aid in generating wealth through trading.

20:08

📉 Analyzing Market Swings and Trade Opportunities

The speaker provides a detailed analysis of market swings, focusing on how to identify and take advantage of trade opportunities. They discuss the manipulation of the market in different sessions, such as Asia, London, and New York, and how these can be used to predict future market movements. The speaker also talks about the concept of 'redistribution' and 'reaccumulation' within the market, and how these can be used to identify potential trade entries. They provide specific examples from the Euro market to illustrate their points and offer insights into how to effectively target and manage trades.

25:11

🔄 Support and Resistance Dynamics

The speaker discusses the dynamics of support and resistance in trading, explaining how these concepts can be used to identify entry and exit points for trades. They provide a detailed analysis of how the market's movement can be influenced by these factors, and how traders can use them to their advantage. The speaker also talks about the importance of managing risk in trading, emphasizing the need to set appropriate stop levels to protect against potential losses. They provide specific examples from their own trading experience to illustrate these points and offer advice on how to effectively manage trades.

30:13

📉 Reflecting on Trading Strategies and Performance

The speaker reflects on their trading strategies and performance, discussing instances where they may have misread the market or failed to capitalize on opportunities. They emphasize the importance of flexibility in trading, explaining how being too fixed on a particular idea can lead to missed opportunities. The speaker also talks about the risks associated with trading certain events, such as NFP, and why they choose to avoid these. They provide a detailed analysis of their own trading behavior and offer insights into how to improve consistency and profitability in trading.

35:14

🎯 Focusing on Consistent Trading Opportunities

The speaker discusses the importance of focusing on consistent trading opportunities, emphasizing the need to target specific pip levels and stick to a strict trading approach. They explain how aiming for smaller, more achievable targets can lead to greater consistency and profitability in trading. The speaker also talks about the benefits of limiting the number of trades and focusing on quality over quantity. They provide a detailed breakdown of how to identify and execute these trades, using specific examples from the market to illustrate their points.

40:14

🚫 Embracing Losses and Managing Risk

In the final paragraph, the speaker emphasizes the importance of embracing losses as a natural part of trading and managing risk effectively. They discuss the need to have clear rules and protocols for engaging in trades, including how much to risk and how often to expose oneself to risk. The speaker also talks about the psychological aspects of trading, explaining how to maintain a positive mindset after losses and how to be content with wins. They encourage traders to focus on the long-term benefits of their strategies and to enjoy the process of trading.

Keywords

💡Market Maker Model

The Market Maker Model is a concept used in trading to describe the behavior of the market where market makers create liquidity by setting bid and ask prices. In the video, the speaker uses this model to analyze price action and identify potential trading opportunities. The model is used to project sell and buy sets of the curve, which are areas where the speaker expects accumulation and reaccumulation to occur, respectively.

💡Price Action

Price action refers to the movement of prices of financial instruments over time. It is a key focus for traders who analyze charts and historical data to predict future market behavior. In the video, the speaker reviews trades taken during the week and discusses how price action was interpreted to make trading decisions.

💡Reaccumulation

Reaccumulation is a term used in trading to describe a situation where a financial instrument's price consolidates after a significant move, often leading to another leg in the same direction of the initial move. In the video, the speaker is looking for signs of reaccumulation within specific price ranges as an indication of potential continuation of a trend.

💡Volume Imbalance

Volume imbalance refers to a situation in the market where the volume of buy orders does not match the volume of sell orders. This can lead to price movements as the market seeks to balance the discrepancy. In the video, the speaker uses volume imbalance as one of the factors in analyzing market behavior and identifying trading opportunities.

💡Bullish Institutional Order Flow

Bullish Institutional Order Flow is a term used to describe a scenario where large financial institutions are buying a financial instrument, pushing the price higher. This is typically seen as a positive sign for the continuation of an upward trend. In the video, the speaker looks for signs of bullish institutional order flow to confirm their trading decisions and expectations of upward price movement.

💡Fractal

In trading, a fractal is a pattern that repeats itself at different time frames, often used to identify potential reversal points or areas of interest. Traders use fractals to recognize recurring patterns in price action that may indicate future price movements. In the video, the speaker uses the concept of fractals to analyze the market and make trading decisions.

💡Breaker Swing

A breaker swing is a term used in trading to describe a price movement that breaks through a significant level of support or resistance, often leading to a continuation of the trend in the direction of the break. In the video, the speaker uses the concept of breaker swings to identify key levels where the market may react and to plan trading strategies around these levels.

💡Optimal Trade Entry

Optimal trade entry refers to the most favorable point at which to enter a trade, typically characterized by a high probability of success and a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Traders seek optimal entries to maximize their chances of盈利 and minimize risk. In the video, the speaker describes various situations that represent optimal trade entries, based on their analysis of the market.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity in the context of trading refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its price. High liquidity means that there are many buyers and sellers, leading to a more efficient market and tighter bid-ask spreads. In the video, the speaker discusses how liquidity can influence price movements and how traders can use this understanding to their advantage.

💡Risk Management

Risk management in trading involves the use of various strategies and techniques to limit potential losses and protect trading capital. This includes setting stop-loss orders, risking only a small percentage of one's trading account on any single trade, and ensuring a positive risk-to-reward ratio. In the video, the speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management in maintaining a consistent and profitable trading approach.

Highlights

The speaker reviews their trades for the week, noting one win, one loss, and good performance on other days.

They discuss the market maker model and sell set of the curve, explaining the concept of reaccumulation within a specific area.

The importance of projecting price action from the sell set to the buy set of the curve is emphasized, along with the use of arrays.

Monday's market manipulation is described, highlighting the down close candle as a key indicator for the week's trading strategy.

The speaker explains how Tuesday's trade filled the buy side imbalance, leading to a higher trend.

A detailed analysis of Wednesday and Thursday's price action and the impact of a bank holiday on trading is provided.

The completion of the market maker model is discussed, with a focus on the gap higher fill and the resulting high volume imbalance.

The definition of bullish institutional order flow is given, with an explanation of breaking highs and protecting lows.

The speaker annotates a down close candle, emphasizing its significance as support and the relevance of volume imbalance.

A discussion on the importance of news timing in relation to market movements and the anticipation of price reactions.

An in-depth look at the 1-hour time frame, highlighting the impact of high impact news and the resulting market shifts.

The concept of optimal trade entries and returns to equilibrium are explained, with a focus on identifying key support and resistance levels.

The speaker provides a strategy for trading the New York session, emphasizing the 7 to 10 a.m. time frame as the most active for price movement.

A detailed breakdown of how the market gaped and ran, waiting for news drivers to inject volatility and propel price in one direction.

The speaker discusses the quiet period in the market from 3 to 8 p.m., noting the typical lack of volatility during this time.

A strategy for taking profit is outlined, focusing on understanding the market's daily profile and targeting key price levels.

The concept of market maker models and the distortion of time within price action is explored, highlighting how price can consolidate before moving quickly.

The speaker shares personal trading experiences, discussing the importance of flexibility and the pitfalls of being too rigid with a trading idea.

A final strategy is presented for focusing on one asset, one time window, and one approach, aiming for a few high-quality trades per week.

Transcripts

what is going on guys welcome back to

another quick commentary today is going

to be a short one because weather is

great and I really don't want to be at

the charts however I want to review the

trades that I took this week and was

actually pretty nice price action took

two trades Monday and Wednesday one win

one one loss and the other days Tuesday

Thursday Friday were good as well

and

Monday was this here we were in that

market maker model okay this is sell set

of the curve buy set of the curve as I

explained in the previous commentary if

I zoom

in that I was looking for reaccumulation

inside that area Okay because high to

low that is your sell set of the curve

and now you project everything into the

buy set of the curve which is low to

high and you combine it with arrays that

you have in the biset the curve so those

up close candles from the cell set of

the curve give me a Range I expect

accumulation inside that range and I

overlap it with there is a buy set

imbalance over here in the Bice set of

the curve and Monday from previous week

printed a down close candle which is

beautiful okay because that's the

manipulation for the week and then

Tuesday runs below Monday low fills that

imbalance and that buy side imbalance

trades higher Wednesday creates a fra

low Thursday and Friday is one

Candlestick over here because it was a

bank holiday and then the markets were

even closed on Friday so that's what

happens okay it gapped higher filled the

Gap ran a little bit but there was no

move yet formed the high at that volume

IM balance over here but obviously where

was it drawn to the buy sell liquidity

above that high to complete the market

maker model so that expansion on Monday

really was just the move to complete

that buy model and like if you look at

this here the market was waiting for

something what was it waiting for as

always news okay because we don't care

about the fundamentals behind the news

we need the timing aspect so what we do

have here is a down close candle and the

buy set of the curve so remember

definition of bullish institutional

order flow it is breaking highs yes

check okay lows are protected not rating

the lows down closed candles act as

support look at this down closed

candle and we're going to annotate

it the entire body essentially you can

use high to low but mainly focus on the

bodies okay there's also that volume

imbalance not going to annotate it but

that's also relevant and obviously the

drawn liquidity is the high over

here it created that fra low okay it is

respecting buses so all our

institutional aut flow signs go green

okay busy down here another busy over

here so a of low bullish our

accumulation range last week Tuesday

formed the low Wednesday Thursday Friday

started the move but it hasn't reached

the objective yet so what was it waiting

for let's jump into a 1 hour it was

waiting for the high impact news 10:00

a.m. on Monday okay and that green box

of obviously is the Monday candle from

previous week so this is also a weekly

open okay which is a new week opening

Gap Friday close and Monday open Tuesday

traded below Monday low so this is the

reversal okay displacing

here breaking above highs so this was

the

shift okay low high lower low breaking

above that high shift

displacement inate that

busy right so UT flow bullish finding

support at that busy running higher on

Thursday snapping back into the range

trading back into the new week op or New

Day opening Gap from that day trading

higher and then look at that CBI okay if

it's bearish you want to see it collapse

from there if it trades above it's going

to turn into support So trade higher

here this was the Sunday open so there

was a new week opening gap which is

another confirmation that price is in a

hurry to get somewhere if we have a new

we opening Gap okay Sunday to Monday

then I really like the Monday New York

session especially if there are New York

high impact news and what we got here

was the new week opening Gap the ASI

session traded once more into the order

Block in form of previous week's Monday

down close candle okay and snap back

consolidation during London why because

we had high impact news in New York so

again the market is waiting for that

news release okay and then 6: a.m. 7

a.m. starting the move essentially 6:

a.m. if we zoom in on that day 7 a.m.

that's what you always want to look at

because that's your New York session

open trades lower finds a discount where

at that oil block that 1 hour

Candlestick essentially if you annotate

the open and I'm going to delete this

this if you annotate the high and the

open like this in lower time frame frame

you will notice that if we jump straight

into a 50

minute okay this is your breaker swing

because there's a low it's a high it's a

lower low and it breaks above with faue

gap so this here is your breaker swing

and you don't expect it to trade below

London low because there already was

manipulation during London okay Asia

manipulated traded higher another

manipulation here during London traded

higher and there is displacement

overlapping with the breaker if you go

into a five

minute okay the candles look cleaner

then I would choose this candle here as

a f minute breaker because cell side

taken here okay displacing them above

that high so this is the support

resistance that Works breaker swing so 7

a.m. trading lower one

manipulation

7:35 finds the low of the session

trading higher 5 minute order block re

accumulating at that inversion level

from the 5 minute order block which is a

balanced price range because there is a

busy as well okay and then 8:00 a.m.

immediately starting to this place

there's 900 a.m. so I'm going to

annotate the 9:00 amm

open and now picture the 9:00 amm candle

okay what does it do there's the open

there's a run higher it makes a low it

runs higher optimal trade entry running

higher optimal trade entry optimal trade

entry running higher boom and the close

so what I just pictured is this here

because this here is the 9:00 a.m.

candle and this here is optimal trade

entry number one

this here is another optimate trade

entry this here is another optimate

trade entry this here looks like a

return to Discount okay 945 shooting it

higher creating a new

busy dipping into it creating two down

Clos candles and then finally obviously

10:00 a.m. which just sends it higher

because there was the high imp pick news

release okay so 700 a.m. creating the

low of the session at a 5 minute breaker

8:00 a.m. immediately displacing what is

here busy and a volume imbalance so

where does the 9 a.m. candle find its

low at that busy right and from there

there's many optimate trade entries in

the lower time frame basically those are

one minute optimate trade entries you

don't have to go into those time

frames if you stay on a 50-minute chart

5 minute chart you see this all

just to give you the logic behind it

we're simply looking at that 9 a.m.

candle 9 to

10 okay there's low to high optim trade

entry number

one return to equilibrium here optimal

trade entry number

two

return to equilibrium again

here oops okay and then it sends but

just to show you there are many optimal

trade entries and if we go back into a

50-minute

chart okay all you need is that buy side

imbalance cide inefficiency if I delete

everything busy

busy okay so if you trade the New York

session there's 7 a.m. 7 a.m. Judah

swing that's your busy it's not going to

trade below that low if it's LED because

what you expect is an optimate trade

entry or return to equilibrium of that

range

okay doesn't have to trade to

equilibrium okay because it traded into

that breaker but you expected to respect

that buy side imbalance on the 50-minute

chart over here creating two down Clos

candles displacing higher again so what

you now expect is an optimal trade entry

from this

low this is a fractal low in the

50-minute chart fractal

High it trades to equilibrium but again

you can easily enter here you can easily

enter in the premium you can you can

enter inside that down Clos candle okay

it's not about you have to buy the

discount important is that your stop is

at least below that candle or below that

candle like my stop I would have placed

it below that candle giving it room to

touch that order block to fill in the

faue Gap okay but if your stop is down

here then you're covering the entire

discount so you can enter in the premium

but your stop has to cover the array you

cannot like buy here and put your stop

inside that fa Gap okay so yes you can

buy the premium but your stop has to

remain at the place that invalidates the

idea and if you make it if you want to

make it simple then simply always put it

below the low okay expect a 15-minute

optimate trade entry 15-minute return to

Discount and put your stop below the low

in the New York session what you then

see is look the market starts

gapping and this is something Larry

Williams anotated or already noticed

back in the

70s okay like look how it starts

gapping not really gaps down here okay

but all of a sudden it starts gapping

and really begins to run in One

Direction and 10: a.m. is just it's

waiting for that news driver for the

volatility injection to to just run it

higher in One Direction okay to to send

it because that's the perfect excuse no

one is questioning the news release oh

it was good for dollar Index haven't

even checked the numbers because we

don't care about the numbers right it

was in price prior to the release and if

you look at the entire

day when that the high of the day form

this here is 12 so look how picture

perfect it formed the high of the day

during

lunch so 10:00 a.m. to 12: is lon close

so you want to take profit in

here okay till lunch and look what

happens

three 28 look how quiet it is here

because 300 p.m. is the bond market

close like all the currencies they they

go really quiet after 300 p.m. because

the bond market is closed

okay and then eight starts the Asia

session that's where you typically get

some volatility but it doesn't has to

okay like it it can stay in in a

consolidation during Asia but typically

3 to8 is really really quiet it's like

the de zone for the day majority of your

highs of the day will form during lows

long and close and if we look at the

entire

profile Asia created the low

reaccumulation in London reaccumulation

in New York on close high of the day

going back into consolidation so you

don't even have to look at all this aan

London I don't trade it you don't have

to trade it because if you enter the New

York session okay here at 7 a.m. oops

you ask yourself okay what did London do

there was manipulation in Asia and there

was manipulation in London so

London traded into equilibrium of that

range Asia low to London High okay Trad

it into equilibrium and then this is the

important part displace the W from it

giving

you that buy side imbalance over here

trading into that buy side imbalance

displacing again back into that

displacement leg displacing again so

that's the benefit of trading New York

session that you always see what did

what did London do Okay and like the

classic regardless what you do on a day

regardless where you take a win or a

loss if in hindsight the day is

something like London creates a low in

these places and New York makes a

reaccumulation in the same direction

regardless whether you lost on that day

trying to long it in New York or whether

you went short like you just lost on a

classic by day profile those are the

losses that that you really want to

study because this is your bread and

butter if if you can identify those

classic buy and sell days once a week

you have everything you need to generate

wealth that's

it

because that's what typically happens

typically London creates the low of the

day in this case yes a session creates

the low however London created a low and

New York offered a reaccumulation in the

the same direction as London displaced

already so what we had here was a London

displacement

swing okay London creating that low at

equilibrium displacing higher here New

York session power of

three really just look at 700 a.m. to 10

because that's really your

your hot spot for the day 7 to 10 8 to

10 that that's the mean threshold of the

entire day why because that's the

overlap of New York and London London

closes at noon so essentially in between

7 to 10: is your real New York session

and then 10 to 12 is your close but if

you look at 7 to 12 for every day on

this day there was the 7 opening seven

opening small Judah swing lower

displacement re-entry at busy

okay lots of small volume imbalances to

then wait for the news and to send it

higher so that New York session offered

a

beautiful power of three Judi wing for

the day displacement this entry right

here this one this is the one you want

to catch that's the lowest or the

highest probability entry you can

catch that's really low hanging fruit

because it is already displacing in One

Direction the flow is

already in that direction it is already

ongoing you don't have to predict any

turning points you just follow the

existing

flow and you know where it is drawn to

because again on the

daily by set of that high to complete

one market maker model daily flow

clearly been

bearish and then you buy a 50-minute

busy during New York entry one entry two

so Monday offered a beautiful classic

buy day what is your near-term

draw simple isn't

it previous day

high so if you buy New York session your

entry is most of the time if you G but

your exit is always if you long

obviously either a cian price but I'm

only talking about the liquidity now it

is either previous day high it is London

high or it is the AI session high and

obviously it can be as much as for

example previous week or previous month

high but this is not what you frame your

intraday idea around back to the

Daily this here is the high of February

so this was already April so in April

you targeted on that Monday you targeted

February High you targeted 224

High however your entire

trade was based on the logic you target

previous day

high your trade is this you buy that

busy and you want to Target

previous day

high this here is your

trade and the more you understand about

Market maker models the more you see the

nature of the fractals this over

here is a reversal this over here is a

redistribution this over here is a

reversal this is a

reaccumulation and this is what you have

to understand is Distortion of time it

goes sideways but it is still inside

that market maker model look how much

more time it spends here in comparison

to how quick it went down here this is

Distortion of time once you see that

Distortion in price and ICT said this as

well when he realized there is

Distortion in time it's always the

market maker model but it can be there

is simply Distortion in time it can look

like this that it takes a long time to

move away from one price level but it

doesn't change the overall Market Mak

model it is inside that cell side and

this is buy set of the curve and that

buy set of the curve can take three

times as long or even more than the cell

set of the curve why is that time here

why is is it

distorted why simply because price is

waiting for that news release over here

so it reverses here and then goes into

consolidation everything it did here not

relevant you don't have to look at PD

arrays inside that consolidation

whatsoever it goes sideways here starts

expanding here just ahead of the news

and now look for the magic what is this

redistribution that is Thursday New York

session isn't this cell set of the curve

is that what I just said right so what

if we now project those two down Clos

candles

into the buy side of the

curve Monday New York session

reaccumulates a busy in

price

inside that distribution from Thursday

which was essentially the last day of

previous week's trading because there

was no Friday

trading so that New York session is

using that New York session as

mitigation this is what you have to

understand about mitigation if they sell

it here for that New York session their

entries is

here and if it breaks above they get the

chance to mitigate their position to get

out of

it trades above with displacement trades

back into it so they can get rid of

those trap TR

positions

Market maker

model sell set of the curve projected

into the buy set of the

curve and if it works on a 50-minute

chart it works on a daily and it works

on a weekly and it works on a 15sec

chart it's is always the same

logic so looking at

Euro Monday

right we had manipulation in Asia took

out the buy stops over here trading

lower London trading back

into probably equilibrium of the range

trading lower up close candle

displacement lower up Clos candle

dropping lower up close candle and then

it finally melts lower what is the

entire IDE frame round what is this

previous day low so what do you do you

sell the New York session and you target

previous day low what I did was that

Candlestick over here I went short

inside of it that's a a change of this

to

premium and those are advanced concepts

right but the equilibrium of that order

block mean threshold like if you would

have gone long okay see this as an order

block 50% of it look how it breaks below

it and turns the mean

threshold into

premium and then it melts lower to

attack this The Narrative is what is

decisive and then if you zoom

in what you can see over here is that

small busy

INF right because that swing higher here

look at the

cbies when higher to fill in that

c also to trade back into this as an aut

block this was 7: a.m. so what you have

here is

your I'm going to make this maybe like

this what you have

here is an optimal trade entry 7:

a.m. and this here is obviously a return

to equili

from the London from the 7 a.m.

high this High here filled that Cy and

also traded into that inversion level

from that 15minute busy over here but

ICT taught us if it fills a fair value

Gap this makes this High automatically

an intermediate term

High took buy stops over here broke

lower now look at this down close candle

here see that high there's no fr low see

that higher high it ran above that high

that candlestick's low if you go into a

5min chart is a

breaker because in a f minute chart you

have that displacement retracement Buy

sell liquidity run drop below and that's

the support resistance that works

again so my entry was dead Wick here

sold it here sold that inversion level

with a stop simply above that high

essentially giving it

room especially if you're selling you

want to give it more room to to stop

because then you can get spread out if

you long you can't get a spread out at

your stop that's just the nature of the

market that you have to if you long you

have to calculate the spread on the

entry especially if you use a limit

order however I was expecting it to turn

that low okay that 500 breaker into

resistance but enter early like one two

Pips doesn't make a difference same

trade okay make sure that you get into

the

move and 818 by the way was my exact

entry I remember it okay and then it

spent here for an entire spent time like

an hour at my

entry and this is where

you really have to go through the data

because if you don't really know what

you're looking for if you don't really

know the model then you start to second

guess everything in that hour you look

for every Dan why this trade isn't good

anymore oh it took the sell side over

here and now it's going to reverse okay

and in an hour you can have a lot of

thoughts so it's easy to collapse the

trade inside that waiting period but

what is price really waiting for

essentially the 10 10: a.m. news right

8:00 a.m. doing nothing 9:00 a.m.

starting the move 10:00 a.m. running it

lower aggressively okay and just

dropping it into the close excuse me at

12 p.m. okay so Monday was really nice

delivery one more re-entry essentially

just ahead of the news but again your

main target is previous day low that's

your entire

idea

so let's go back to the

Dixie shot higher

Tuesday took out Monday High dropped

lower you trade London

session this is your London optimal

trade

Entry New York session trading

higher essentially into that down close

candle over

here not really clean for me but it it

delivered so in hindsight it was always

clean that's how you have to look at it

I remember I had that CBI annotated on

in price and and trade into it and from

there it simply staircased lower and

used every up close candle as n block to

sell it off so they're definitely where

selling opportunities on that day on

Tuesday your target would have been to

rebalance that displacement from the

previous day session look at the 1 hour

fa Gap that is inside here okay but look

where it forms the newor session low

filling in that busy from previous day

news

displacement next day we had a

session London forms the high of the day

here taking out

Asia optimal trade entry but entry

during London lunch right selling

off there's your

displacement okay the

CBI and there's your New York optimate

trade entry and that's the day I simply

read wrong okay was bullish on that day

tried to long it if I would have waited

long longer than I might have caught the

the dollar Sals but I was preoccupied on

that day and this happens happens to the

best really I was expecting Longs I

wanted to see Longs I was only waiting

for Longs and I kind of ignored the

short side I saw this as a potential

premium but I expected it saw the new

day opening Gap to break above this and

to turn it into support

So this happens I just completely read

it wrong on that day ignored the fact

that this was a beautiful optimal trade

entry into CI into inversion level it's

a beautiful selling opportunity with the

benefit of hindsight but what I saw was

for example if we go into

Euro on

Wednesday and many took this trade it

took equal highs right high low higher

high breaking lower so this here was

definitely a valid short but like the

cleanest sell model will not work if it

is in a buy program okay if it wants

higher because what it did is optimal

trade entry from this range okay but

obviously from a selling perspective we

had a balanced price range over here so

it took buy stops again clear to equal

highs okay so you could have expected

okay high of the day in and now sell it

off attack this as low resistance

completely read it wrong on that day I

tried to sell

pound in hindsight I talked a lot with

Nico about our gu loss um wasn't wasn't

really great performance because as I

said I was preoccupied I was too rigid

with that idea and I was

too too fixed on it okay I kind of lost

the flexibility of seeing the counter

side I went into the session or I want

to sell pound and I'm not regret rting

my choice because it it happens it

really happens and on for example on

Tuesday I thought Let Me Wait that day

and I'm going to sell pound tomorrow so

I sold pound on Wednesday and I had that

plan since Tuesday so it wasn't

something completely irrational but I

was too fixed on that

idea and I was only looking for this and

if I would have been more flexible then

I might would have seen the other side

and I might would

have seen that one hour order Block in

di Dixie over

here okay which it traded into perfectly

plus there was a 1H hour inversion

level so that was clean as hell okay but

I had blinders on on that day and I

missed that Wednesday opportunity and I

I got it wrong because I tried to sell

pound But ultimately what happened with

was the draw this is previous week low

and previous week low is

also the open of the weekly fair value

Gap so that is a market maker sell model

obviously right so again trades into the

order block at 8 there's nine and 10

just gapping lower collapsing

completely

Thursday collapsing it okay there was

another 20 pip swing for Euro for

example example with the 830 news to

complete that cell model low re-entry

okay to attack that and then It reversed

trading above that Candlestick

here as a breaker plus F Gap displacing

away so this is now an order

block if it would not have been NFP then

I would have bought that okay but I

trade don't trade ahead of NFP because

you can really be aggressive for example

if we go into a 5sec

chart and go back to 830 look how it is

[Music]

running like okay this is dollar Index

but 30 points in dollar if we look at

this in

Euro there's a 5sec

chart there's 8:30 release So within the

first 5 Seconds it dropped 30

Pips if I have a 10 pip stop I'm not

going to get out here like it will get

into the loading screen and they will

try to close my position but I will get

my close somewhere down

here and like if you look at this

everything in here is the first minute

of NFP drop so that's the risk that

comes with it so 35 pip if I enter with

an 8 pip stop whatsoever that can be

like a 1% loss can easily turn into a 4%

loss so this is just too much risk of

ruin this can kill my account that's why

I don't trade it like 30 Pips within 5

Seconds that's aggressive that is really

aggressive and you have to see it like

this your broker broker is going to have

liquidity issues so everyone wants to

fill okay because you're not the only

one who's getting that stop so it really

and they are allowed to do so they will

hold you and will get you out of that

trade as soon as they have counter

liquidity and this might all might only

be down here okay so this can really be

brutal if

you get trapped on the wrong side of

moves like this this is why ICT taught

us don't trade NFP don't try try to

trade CPI okay because risk of maren is

simply too high however we got that shot

lower there was smt Divergence as well

Euro took London High and the Asia high

and dollar obviously stood below gu is

still below as well we got that shot

lower and I wasn't at the charts later

on but if you go into a 5 minute

chart there's the 5 minute order block

okay from which it accumulates higher

this here is essentially your inversion

fa value Gap so potential re-entries I

could have imagined would have been

something like this okay that would have

been valid for Me Maybe trading back to

consequent encroachment coming back into

that order block for mitigation

essentially busy number one busy number

two so the aggressive way yes this here

was an optimate trade entry that

definitely had reason behind it however

I wasn't at the charts anymore what

could you have targeted to fill in that

CBI that yeah

basically um like it it just melted away

okay to fill in that c cread with NFP

look where it forms the high post NFP he

filling in that's really like a gap for

the market because it is so aggressively

offering in one side not offering the

other side it wants to rebalance that

and that's what it did later on so that

was NFP but I typically don't like to

trade Friday and NFP Friday basically

the only exception when I sometimes

trade also notice for example if we go

into one hour chart or like like 50

minute chart where did NFP sell off what

was it targeting look at

this from

Wednesday okay so Monday sold off

aggressively what would would have been

your Target on Tuesday you could have

targeted the inefficiency created with

the Monday New York news displacement

right that could have been your Target

on Tuesday Wednesday shot higher

Thursday continued higher what could

have been your Target on Friday that

this placement from the Tuesday a

Wednesday New York session okay so when

you target you always Target sell

liquidity London low and bus in price

and look where touchdown it forms the

low at the low end of that busy so

that's clean delivery okay but there was

no clean re-entry over over

here however as mentioned on the 5

minute chart here this here potentially

that was an entry and I would say that

was

leged

right

so with this being

said I think I covered everything I

wanted to say um definitely if you see

it like this Monday offered opportunity

Tuesday offered opportunity Wednesday

offered Thursday offered and Friday

offered I'm going to give you a speedrun

on the 5 minute

chart

by giving you 10 to 10 pip

place okay you would have bought

here that busy as

entry going to go into a 3 minute for

Thursday that's what I tape red but

didn't

trade took out the cell side

here busy here so that was the 8:30

news simply targeting London

high back into a five minute

5 minute

breaker plus

busy 10 pip

stop Target and 10

Pips

Tuesday smt Divergence here with the

dollar

Index

accumulated

higher could have bought into that Wick

10

pip where is it drawn to you want to

fill in that displacement from

Monday and you can go for 20 Pips here

but the reason why I showed you this is

just to prove there's something every

single session looking at

Monday

5 minute inversion faue

Gap going for

101 Okay the reason why I suggest those

trades is not

because you only have to go for 10

Pips but those are the same tra

that 10 pip Target here could have been

a

10r and what I suggest you is look for

20 Pips in New

York because every single opportunity

every single

day there are

moves if you know what you're looking

for and if you can catch one 20 pip

swing a

week that is everything you'll ever need

and this here

should show you that if you're having

difficulties finding

consistency focus on 7 to1 8 to1 one

shot and done go for two three R because

if your wins give you three R can lose

70% of your trades and you're still

profitable no re-entries no 1%

risk on every trade one shot and done

for today regardless of what outcome you

get loss done win

done

focus on two three shots a week focus on

getting one winner a week because that

already means your week is

blue try to average maybe 10 to as as

much as 15 trades a month if you have 10

trades a month if you have three winners

averaging 2.5 maybe up to

3% then you are Break Even or profitable

for the month if you have a quarter with

let's say 30 or even up to 40 trades you

have 30 trades and your wins average

three R you lose 20 of it you win 10 you

lose minus 20 you make 30 so your

quarter is up

10% and now do the math with whatever

account you're comfortable or even

picture you managing a million trading

half risk making 10 r on it and all of a

sudden you make 50 Grand a

quarter and that's not even the limit

so re-evaluate if you really have to

trade London and New York and this and

Euro and SPO and NASDAQ and or if it

might be smarter to commit to one asset

time one time window one approach

hunting 20 to 30 Pips during New York in

Euro USD having a one shot one kill

policy expecting two to three good days

a week having the expect expectation of

maybe catching one of those moves being

willing to miss two three moves a week

being willing to have two three no trade

days a

week limiting yourself to maybe one to

three executions a

week calling it a week if everything

goes south and you have three

losses calling it a week after two wins

maybe you're even calling it a week and

if you're not consistent that's the best

you can do after just one

win catching your win on Monday and

being content observing the entire other

week observing wow Tuesday delivered

again 20 Pips Wednesday delivered again

20 Pips Thursday delivered again Friday

delivered again and regardless whether

you trade NFP whether you trade or took

that long or whether you even saw that

long or whether you are like me and sold

that day because you were

preoccupied seeing in hindsight well it

was

there that's how you lose that fear of

losing it's there every single day you

have to put your blinders off and you

have to study it with that perspective

there is something every single session

if you go for 10 20 Pips during New York

8 to 11 there is something for you every

single session the problem you're having

is you W 50 Pips 70 Pips 100 Pips and

every trade that doesn't offer 100 Pips

is not a good trade to you if it only

runs 30 Pips in your direction that's

not a good

trade you're going to have immediate

losses you get in and it's going to

immediately run to your stop and you're

going to have trades that run

immediately into

profit or they're going to chop around

for an hour and then maybe go to stop or

profit that's all the things that you

cannot control you can control how much

you risk and how often you expose

yourself to risk that's the reason why

you need rules protocols for when do I

engage how much do I risk how often do I

risk as I just said in the previous

couple of

minutes it might be smarter for you to

focus on one asset one time window one

strict approach write it down what are

you going to do which which asset are

you going to trade when are you going to

trade how much are you going to

risk write down after a loss I

immediately call it a day after a win I

immediately call it the day like I'm

going to end it with this I really like

taking losses because they mean that I'm

done for the day that I can close the

charts that I can enjoy life because let

me tell you this I don't trade for the

sake of taking

trads I trade for the

freedom and you should too so be happy

to call it the day after loss be happy

to be content after win be happy to

close your charts because regardless

whether you suffered ruin or not in your

losses the market will tick tomorrow

again and they will next week and they

will next month and all the you

learn today will deliver in a decade

from now there's no reason to be worried

about this is your million dollar ticket

really you have

it try to do less and you will end with

more with this being

said enjoy the rest of your weekend

trade safe and talk to you next week

peace