Macro and Flows Update: April 2023 - e16

Summary

The transcript discusses the current low volatility in the market, attributing it to the Federal Reserve's actions in selling out-of-the-money puts and the underinvestment in positioning. It highlights the lag in monetary policy effects due to the vast amount of long assets and liquidity removal, predicting a potential increase in volatility and market challenges ahead. The speaker suggests that the Fed's actions and the structural inflation may lead to stagflation or a mild recession, emphasizing the importance of focusing on secular trends rather than cyclical fluctuations.

Takeaways

• 📉 The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is reaching new lows due to the Federal Reserve selling out-of-the-money puts, which is a form of liquidity provision but not quantitative easing.
• 💹 The Fed's actions are aimed at preventing extreme negative outcomes rather than injecting massive liquidity into the system, which is still positive for the market.
• 🔄 There is a significant lag in the impact of monetary policy due to the vast amount of long assets held by institutions and individuals, which are mostly illiquid.
• 📉 The sell-off in the left tail of the distribution, coupled with short positioning and a narrative of a short-term market, contributes to the reduction in volatility.
• 💰 The interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve from 0 to 5% in the US have a lag effect, meaning the full impact on markets and the economy is yet to be felt.
• 📈 Despite record buyback levels in Q1, projections for Q2, Q3, and Q4 show a significant drop in demand, indicating a potential decrease in market support.
• 🌐 The structural problem of liquidity coming out of the system is causing a slow but impactful effect on the economy.
• 🔄 The Fed is likely to continue selling calls to reduce liquidity, as the inflationary pressures are still high in the short term.
• 📉 The current market backdrop suggests a potential for stagflation or a mild recession due to margin compression and increasing interest rates.
• 🔄 The structural secular inflation is the key issue for markets, and cyclical waves should be seen as opportunities to re-enter the long-term secular trend.
• 📈 A counter-trend move and time will eventually diminish the impact of short positions, leading to significant market moves when they do occur.

Q & A

Why is the VIX index reaching new lows as the Fed sells out-of-the-money puts?

The VIX index is reaching new lows because the Federal Reserve is selling out-of-the-money puts, which is a form of liquidity provision. This action is not quantitative easing (QE) but helps to stop the far left tail of the distribution, dampening the downside risk without pushing massive liquidity into the system.

What is the difference between selling out-of-the-money puts and buying stocks with the Fed's intervention?

Selling out-of-the-money puts is a strategy to provide liquidity and manage risk, whereas buying stocks directly with Fed intervention would involve the central bank taking a more active role in the market, which is not the case here. The Fed's current actions are aimed at controlling the risk distribution rather than injecting liquidity into the market through direct asset purchases.

How does the current positioning in the market contribute to the low volatility?

The current positioning is broadly underinvested, and the narrative is short, which means there is less demand for puts and more demand for calls. This imbalance in the market contributes to the compression of volatility as investors are not heavily weighted towards bearish bets.

What is the impact of the overhanging secular problem of liquidity coming out of the system?

The overhanging secular problem of liquidity coming out of the system means that interest rates have been increased from zero to 5% in the US by the Federal Reserve. This liquidity removal has a significant lag, and its effects have yet to fully impact the markets or the economy, leading to a slow and potentially more damaging adjustment over time.

How does the lag in monetary policy affect asset prices and the economy?

The lag in monetary policy affects asset prices and the economy by creating a delay in the response of financial markets and economic indicators to changes in interest rates. This lag means that the full impact of rate increases is not immediately felt, leading to potential mispricing and imbalances that may only become apparent over time.

What is the expected change in corporate buybacks and how does it affect market demand?

Corporate buybacks were near record levels in the first quarter, but there is a projected dramatic falloff in demand for buybacks in Q2, Q3, and Q4. This decrease in demand can contribute to a decline in market support and potentially lead to increased volatility and downward pressure on asset prices.

What is the potential outcome of the Fed's actions in reducing liquidity?

The Fed's actions in reducing liquidity could lead to a continuation of low volatility in the short term. However, this may ultimately result in a bigger problem down the road as the lag effects of monetary policy adjustments work through the economy, potentially leading to overextension of quantitative tightening (QT) or other measures that could exacerbate inflation and economic challenges.

What are the factors contributing to a more inflationary backdrop than a month and a half ago?

The factors contributing to a more inflationary backdrop include the Fed's previous activism, higher yields in the back of the curve, cheaper oil before OPC, and a stronger dollar. These factors, combined with speculative assets being higher, indicate a more inflationary environment than previously.

What is the worst-case scenario for the market according to the script?

The worst-case scenario for the market is stagflation or a mild recession. This is due to structural secular inflation, which is not addressed by cyclical changes, and a potential market weakening due to earnings contraction without a significant demand compression.

How does the script suggest investors should approach the current market conditions?

The script suggests that investors should be aware of the structural secular inflation and not just focus on cyclical realities. It advises looking for opportunities to get back into the secular trend, recognizing that the current market dynamics may be an opportunity to rebalance and prepare for the next leg of the decade-long move.

What are the dynamics that could lead to a market decline?

The dynamics that could lead to a market decline include a counter trend move that diminishes the lag and liquidity coming out of the market, a rally that shakes the resolve of short positions, and the natural effect of time causing over leverage and selling of other income-generating risks. These factors can build up potential energy that, when released, results in major market moves.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Volatility and Market Dynamics

This paragraph discusses the low volatility in the market, often questioned as the VIX reaches new lows. It attributes this to the Federal Reserve's actions of selling out-of-the-money puts, which is a form of liquidity provision but not quantitative easing. The Fed is managing the left tail of the distribution, which is positive for the market. However, it contrasts this with the fact that positioning is underinvested and the narrative is short, which is typical when markets face secular headwinds. The speaker notes that despite the dampening effect on the downside distribution, there are very secularly negative realities slowly working through the system due to liquidity removal and increased interest rates.

05:01

💡 Fed's Policy Lag and Inflation Concerns

The paragraph delves into the lag in the effects of monetary policy due to the vast amount of long assets held by institutions and individuals. It discusses the various types of assets and their liquidity, highlighting the significant lag in sectors like private equity, venture capital, and real estate. The paragraph also touches on the impact of interest rate increases on buybacks, which have a lag due to corporate board approval processes. It suggests that the demand for buybacks will fall dramatically in the future quarters, leading to a push-pull dynamic that reduces volatility. The speaker anticipates that the Fed will continue to sell calls to reduce liquidity, as the full impact of policy has yet to hit the markets, and inflation is likely to remain high in the short term.

10:04

📈 Market Positioning and Structural Issues

This section examines the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing the economy, particularly the tension between taking money away from investment and the resulting margin compression at the corporate earnings level. Despite this, it does not reduce demand, and the speaker argues that the focus should not be on the potential for recession but on the structural issues at hand. These include labor strength, inequality rebalancing, populism, deglobalization, and resource scarcity. The speaker suggests that the current market weakness could be an opportunity to re-enter the secular trend, which is expected to last for a decade, and advises looking out for signs of counter-trend moves and time diminishing short positions.

15:05

🌪️ Market Rally and Short Squeeze Dynamics

The paragraph discusses the dynamics of market rallies and short squeezes, explaining how markets often rally in anticipation of an upcoming downturn. It describes the psychological and technical factors that contribute to market movements, such as short squeezing, low implied volatility, and the realization of potential energy from a stretched market position. The speaker suggests that the market is at an inflection point with potential for significant upward movement followed by a decline. The paragraph also touches on the effects of time on short positions, noting that the longer a short position is held, the more difficult it becomes to maintain, leading to potential market moves when these positions are covered.

20:08

📝 Final Thoughts and Disclaimer

In the concluding paragraph, the speaker provides a final analysis of the market situation, emphasizing the importance of not focusing on the potential for recession but rather on the structural issues that are causing margin compression and resource scarcity. The speaker suggests that the market may experience a counter-trend rally with increased volatility, which could be an opportunity to build short positions. The paragraph ends with a disclaimer, stating that the content does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or service, and that the information provided should not be taken as investment advice. The speaker reminds viewers to consult with their business, legal, or tax advisors for personalized advice.

Keywords

💡Volatility

Volatility refers to the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of returns. In the context of the video, it is noted that volatility, specifically the VIX (an index that measures the stock market's expectation of volatility), is reaching new lows. This is significant as it indicates a perceived decrease in risk by investors, which is influenced by various factors such as the Federal Reserve's actions and market positioning.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as 'the Fed,' is the central banking system of the United States, responsible for implementing monetary policy. In the video, the Fed's actions of selling out-of-the-money puts and increasing interest rates from zero to 5% are discussed as measures affecting liquidity and market expectations. These actions are differentiated from quantitative easing (QE) and are described as a way to manage the risk distribution on the downside without introducing massive liquidity into the system.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity refers to the ability to convert assets into cash quickly and with minimal price impact. In the video, liquidity is described as being removed from the system due to the Federal Reserve's policy actions, which have a lag effect. This removal of liquidity is expected to have a delayed impact on the markets and the economy, leading to potential future volatility and market adjustments.

💡Positioning

Positioning in the context of financial markets refers to the allocation of investments or the stance that investors take, typically in relation to market trends or expectations. The video mentions that current market positioning is underinvested and narrative is short, suggesting a general lack of investment or a bearish outlook. This positioning is contrasted with the longer-term, secular challenges that are slowly working through the system.

💡Secular

A secular trend or problem refers to a long-term or persistent pattern that transcends short-term cyclical fluctuations. In the video, the term is used to describe fundamental, structural issues that are not immediately resolved, such as the removal of liquidity from the system and the impact of increasing interest rates. The speaker emphasizes that these secular challenges are the primary concern, rather than short-term cyclical realities.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the video, inflation is portrayed as a pressing concern that is likely to remain high in the short term. The Federal Reserve's actions, such as selling puts and calls, are discussed in relation to managing inflation expectations and their impact on market volatility.

💡Buybacks

A buyback, or share repurchase, is when a company buys back its own stock from the open market, often to return cash to shareholders or to support the share price. In the video, buybacks are described as a primary driver of demand in the equity markets, with a noted lag in their implementation due to corporate approval processes. The speaker highlights that buybacks were near record levels in the first quarter but are projected to fall significantly in subsequent quarters, affecting market demand.

💡Margin Compression

Margin compression occurs when the difference between a company's revenue and its costs (margins) decreases, often due to factors such as rising labor costs, increased funding costs, or competitive pressures. In the video, margin compression is presented as a primary problem in an increasing interest rate environment, leading to challenges for corporate earnings. This compression is driven by various factors, including labor costs, deglobalization, and resource scarcity.

💡Stagflation

Stagflation is an economic situation in which the economy is stagnant, unemployment is high, and inflation is rising. In the video, stagflation is discussed as a potential worst-case scenario for the markets, where a combination of weak earnings, strong demand, and persistent inflation creates a challenging environment for both investors and the economy.

💡Recession

A recession is a period of negative growth in the economy, typically characterized by a decline in economic activity, increased unemployment, and a fall in the production of goods and services. In the video, the concept of recession is discussed in relation to the cyclical realities and the potential market response. The speaker suggests that the market may weaken due to earnings contraction, but this does not necessarily equate to a full-blown recession.

💡Counter-Trend Moves

Counter-trend moves refer to market movements that go against the prevailing trend or general market direction. In the video, the speaker discusses the potential for a counter-trend squeeze back to new highs, driven by a rally or other market dynamics. These moves are significant as they can indicate shifts in market sentiment and positioning, potentially leading to a change in the secular trend.

💡Opex

Opex, short for 'options expiration,' is the date on which an options contract becomes void and ceases to exist. In the video, Opex is used as a reference point for market timing and potential market movements, with the speaker noting the impact of Opex on market volatility and positioning.

Highlights

VIX reaching new lows as markets approach expiration, reflecting a dampened part of the distribution on the downside.

The Federal Reserve selling out-of-the-money puts is a form of liquidity provision, but not the same as quantitative easing.

Market positioning is underinvested, and the narrative is short, which is typical when there is a secular headwind to markets.

There's a significant lag in the effect of liquidity removal from the system due to interest rate increases.

The equity markets have seen a primary driver of demand in the form of buybacks, which also operate with a lag.

Expectations for a dramatic falloff in demand for buybacks in Q2, Q3, and Q4, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.

The push and pull dynamic of put sale and systemic realities that are secularly bad are reducing volatility.

Inflation is likely to remain high in the short term, and the Fed may overextend its quantitative tightening due to this.

The structural secular inflation problem puts the Fed in a difficult position, as it may lead to stagflation or a mild recession.

The current economic scenario suggests a market weakening due to earnings contraction rather than a full-blown recession.

Fiscal policy, a strong labor market, and the reopening in China are factors that drive demand and contribute to an inflationary margin compression story.

The challenge for the Fed is to manage margin compression and corporate earnings issues without leading to stagflation.

The market may weaken due to short-term cyclical effects, but the primary driver is margin compression and resource scarcity.

The potential for a market decline is seen as an opportunity to rebalance and prepare for the next leg of the secular trend.

Markets often rally before a decline as people foresee what is coming and position themselves accordingly.

Short positions naturally lose money over time, and conviction is lost, leading to a dramatic market move once they do happen.

The current market situation is at an inflection point with potential for real energy to push higher and then potentially lower.

Transcripts

hello and welcome back to another

episode of the macro and flows update

here from Kai

volatility why is V so low I keep

getting that question right why is the

vix getting to new lows as we approach

expiration the FED just sold way out of

the money puts by backing

depositors this is not QE as some have

mentioned it is a form of liquidity but

there is a big difference between

selling out of the money puts and buying

stock with the fed is doing is back

stopping the far far left tail of the

distribution they are not pushing

massive liquidity into the system that

said that is still obviously dampening a

part of the distribution onto the

downside which is ultimately positive

you take that paired with the fact that

positioning is still broadly

underinvested and narrative is short

which tends to be the case whenever

there is a SE secular headwind to

markets markets are relatively efficient

they're forward

looking now you pair that also with the

fact that there is an

overhanging

secular problem which is liquidity is

coming out of the system the interest

rates have been brought from zero to 5%

here in the US by the Federal

Reserve there's a massive lag to that

liquidity removal um and that lag means

a lot of that policy has yet to hit the

markets or the economy so you have short

positioning the put being sold on the

left tail while the actual realities

which are very very secularly bad are

still slowly working through the system

this is the backdrop that we sit in why

is there such a lag how big is the lag

to uh monetary

policy for one you've heard me talk

about this before but there's about 400

to $450 trillion of long assets

institutions individuals we all hold

assets um what do they look like about

40 to 50 trillion is US domestic

equities about 40 to 50 trillion is

global equities outside the US so call

it 100 trillion but there's another

350 trillion dollars of other assets and

almost all of those are much less

liquid uh with with a significant lag

think private Equity Venture Capital

real estate right all of these operate

with a dramatic lag and as they rate to

lower prices at a much slower rate they

ultimately reduce collateral and

leverage and liquidity for the rest of

the market so there's that not to

mention in the equity markets themselves

a primary driver of demand has been

buyback

BuyBacks themselves operate with a

dramatic lag because they have to pass

through corporate boards right for

approval um ultimately we can see that

in the first quarter BuyBacks were still

near record levels equivalent to what

we've seen in the last year but if you

look forward to projections for Q2 Q3 Q4

there is a cliff a dramatic falloff of

demand in these BuyBacks so these are

great examples to how the lags prac

practically work through the economy of

interest rate

increases um and again in the meantime

the positioning for it does not wait for

that lag it is bearish and reflexively

causes counter Trend moves add to that

again they the put sale and you have a

push and pull Dynamic that is

dramatically reducing volatility the FED

is going to be forced back in to

continue to sell calls to continue to

reduce liquid liquidity because it is

not hitting the market yet and inflation

is likely to still be hot in the short

term while selling puts on the downside

so this selling of all ultimately has

compressed V the pressures at this point

in time um are Vol compressing but this

will ultimately only lead to a much

bigger problem down the road as that lag

Works through and likely the FED

overextends um its QT or the removal of

liquidity from other means as inflation

continues to run

hot if you think about a month and a

half ago the Fed was out here talking

down you know talking up interest rates

talking down uh uh rates uh talking up

yields um while we had

significantly higher yields in the back

of the curve we had cheaper oil right at

before OPC came in and underpinned oil

we had a significantly stronger dollar

right which is very important not to

mention markets are right back where

they were with speculative assets

significantly higher so a wealth effect

that is net inflationary to uh to

individuals as well so we start looking

at all of these factors and there's a

much more inflationary backdrop than

there was a month and a half ago when

when the Fed was much more activist

so I think we can expect the FED to

continue to step into the fry to try and

front run what is um you know a

structural inflationary um

concern so the FED will keep selling

these calls um we believe and again we

mentioned this about two weeks ago a

month and a half ago we continue to see

people like Weller Weller coming out and

and talking this up um you know whether

it's through the Wall Street Journal and

Nick timos or publicly

otherwise ultimately this difference in

timing of the different components of

monetary policy an economic policy um

are likely not to change this real story

which is a structural secular inflation

that puts the FED in a box people keep

talking about the

cyclical uh realities oh we're going

into recession that recession will mean

lower rates um so you know go out there

and and uh you know buy

bonds um you know that that is the the

the general kind of um the general view

right now the reality however is we

believe the worst case scenario um is a

stagflation or even mild recession why

is that the worst case scenario uh for

Market as opposed to a deep recession or

something much worse on the growth side

um one um there's a very likely scenario

we believe um of a market weakening due

to earnings contraction while GDP itself

continues to be strong margin

compression as we're seeing this earning

cycle is the primary problem in an

increasing interest rate environment

labor costs de globalization the higher

cost to fund projects are all

significantly margin compressing they

are not necessarily demand compressing

actually quite the contrary all the

fiscal policy not to mention strong

labor market drives relatively strong

demand add to that the reopening in

China right uh something that we've been

talking about for some time again this

weer dollar and you have some real

inflationary margin

compression story that can really hurt

earnings and hurt markets without

actually pushing us into a full-blown

recession that can continue to keep

inflation

sticky and not allow the FED to come

back into the fry to decrease interest

rates into a market

decline even worse than this is what it

could do is cause going into a new

election Seas season a

stagnation that will still give

politicians the excuse to do more fiscal

policy to do things that are politically

popular while the FED is still unable to

act because inflation itself is still

relatively high this combination of

factors has a name something we've

talked about for years which is

stagflation and stagflation itself is

the core problem to markets it is not a

two-dimensional game any more where a

cyclical downturn or a recession means

deflation or that a cyclical upturn

means inflation the bigger issue is that

there is a structural secular inflation

and yes we will have cyclical waves

along the way but ultimately the trend

is structurally higher for reasons

outside of the cyclical supply and

demand dynamics that is the important

takeaway and the more we end up in the

middle scenario the harder it is for the

FED ultimately the FED is taking money

away from planet paloalto they are

taking interest rates up they are taking

money away from companies away from

capital and

investment and ultimately that is going

to drive margin compression

that is going to drive issues at the

corporate earnings

level um but what that does not do is

reduce demand and ultimately even in the

short term if that creates small

cyclical effects on demand that is not

the primary driver ultimately the margin

compression the labor strength the

inequality rebalancing the populism the

uh deglobalization that that drives the

resource scarcity that that drives lives

are ultimately the issues at hand so

let's keep an eye on that not on whether

a recession is coming or not because

ultimately that is the important piece

as part of that it's important to note

that this might be the the cyclical

opportunity to dive back into the

secular

Trend a lot of people a lot of

institutions in the last 3 to six months

have begun to pile into this uh you know

shorting duration getting longer kind of

inflationary Hedges trade and it has

gotten unbalanced right during secular

trends like we saw the other way for 40

years you have many cyclical moves where

narrative changes and position changes

but those have to be seen as an

opportunity to get back into the next

leg of what is a much more decade long

secular

move and structural changes that is how

we see this potential period uh that is

coming we do believe that there could

very well be an equivalent liquidation

to value and commodities into the coming

decline once it comes but we want to be

clear that that is an immense

opportunity to really get back into

those names and those things that will

continue to work for the decade to

come how will this

happen how will this play out so this

very kind of structural secularly

bearish view um to to equities uh but

yet resilient economy

view how will this come to play in

markets generally it happens by

squeezing the positioning that is

foreseeing what is coming think about

1999 leading into 2000 for those that

were around think about 07 leading into

08 even think on a smaller scale of

2020 early January late December when

people were talking about covid but it

had yet to happen we had a month and a

half to two month rally in markets

before the decline came 07 not too

dissimilar longer period 99 into 2000

blowoff top these are all similar

Dynamics why do markets and this way

often the realities of lags of the way

these a lot of these things work mean

that people see things coming and react

quickly knowing that it's likely to be

coming that positioning counteracts

reflexively the secular realities of a

secular

outcome you have to shake the resolve

markets have to shake the resolve of the

shorts that see that secular outcome

coming that resolve has to be covered

whether it's a story narrative whether

it's just simple stop losses um it has

to be diminished before a decline can

actually occur there are really three

effects that ultimately drive this one

as I that simple short squeezing is one

two as markets go higher eventually

based on the option volatility smile

markets slide to a very low implied

volatility and pinning of all supply of

all which is usually very very strong um

towards the end of a cycle gets unpinned

as we slide to lower and lower vs and

buyers implied volatility at these lower

levels come in to rebalance and underpin

a low um and and Supply remove Supply

from the V markets lastly there is a

realized potential energy of a rubber

band stretching and the market going

higher and higher which ultimately leads

to a much further distance for a bigger

realized move these three effects are

one of the main reasons that this is the

way that markets

eventually fall um is is through a rally

ironically at the end if that is not the

way it happens there is one other way to

structurally diminish short

exposure time time itself will

eventually cause over leverage to

selling other income generating risk um

you know risk Premia uh selling modes

those will increase the potential energy

and potential risk um in a system on top

of that shorts are naturally um lose

money over time during the time due to

the time value of money due to um other

kind of earnings Etc so there is a

natural effect where the longer short

stay in the more difficult it is and

conviction is lost over time this is the

reason why often things take longer to

uh per you know to to happen than most

would ever expect but once they do

happen they happen very dramatically

with major uh moves happening all at

once these two dynamics of move in

counter price and taking of time are the

things that

diminish that ability to short market so

these are the two things that I would be

looking looking for we are looking for a

function of counter Trend move and time

to diminish what is a lag and liquidity

coming out of the market um and an

eventual secular reality of what that

means for markets as we sit here at Opex

um sitting squeezing near the recent

highs um we would expect again after a

week of shorter Vana charm flows right

we have a a little window of weakness

that we expect assuming there is not a

meaningful breakdown in the next four to

5 days for this rally to continue into

May Opex again brief

decline as long as it doesn't

materialize to something bigger

relatively shortly we would expect a

counter Trend squeeze uh back to New

highs with this time around V support We

Believe ball itself could very well come

up um if that were to

happen um we would generally expect uh

the FED to continue to try and fight

this the interest rates to continue to

be raised um and eventually that squeeze

to give away um somewhat more

dramatically either at May

Opex or if it doesn't time again if we

don't get that call Squeeze time it will

likely take um to for for shorts to be

diminished so again we're looking again

at that may Opex which we've talked

about for some time if in particular we

can get a big enough counter counter

Trend rally with market up V up which we

see is a higher likelihood than we've

seen in some time here um that would be

the sign uh to build shorts into this

market and particularly to look for

opportunities that we have not seen now

for a year and a half for more con

move again if we're unable to get that R

rubber band stretched instead we move

sideways there's continued V compression

um this will likely then push out longer

than that but again we'll talk in the

next month we'll see where things go

here in April but we sit at a very

interesting inflection moment with a

month of potential real uh real

potential energy uh to push higher and

then potentially V up and move lower um

will touch base next month as always

thank you for joining us for the macro

and flows update be

water this does not constitute an offer

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or or any other product or service by

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