Dalal Street Week Ahead: OCTOBER 1ST Week | 2024 | P R Sundar
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the Nifty and Bank Nifty performance, noting a significant rally in Nifty despite underperformance in Bank Nifty due to profit booking. Accenture and Reliance Industries stocks show recovery, with the latter appearing bullish. The video also covers the impact of US market ADRs on Nifty, geopolitical tensions, and upcoming economic data releases. The host anticipates a volatile October series with Nifty trading between 25,000 and 27,000. Key regulatory changes by SEBI are highlighted, including increased margin requirements and potential premium increases, affecting intraday traders. The video concludes with advice to maintain light positions ahead of the SEBI meeting.
Takeaways
- π Nifty rallied about 400 points last week, while Bank Nifty only rose by 50 points due to profit booking in banks.
- π Accenture's good results and a 2% rise in Reliance Industries suggest a bullish trend for Reliance, which has been consolidating around 3,000 rupees.
- π Profit booking in US markets on Friday night led to a negative impact on Nifty, with key ADRs like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Infosys falling over 2%.
- π Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon are noted, but markets are less likely to react to repeated events that are not surprising.
- π The expectation is for a slightly negative opening for Nifty on Monday, but this could change depending on Asian market performance.
- π The US market has been consolidating and this trend is expected to continue, with no significant economic data expected to impact the market this week.
- π October Series is anticipated to be very volatile, with Nifty likely trading between 25,000 and 27,000.
- πΉ High premiums are expected in the market due to it being a 5-week series, with the combined premium for 25,000 put and 27,000 call options being over 150 rupees.
- π The SEBI board meeting on September 30 is crucial, with proposals to increase margin money and lot size, which could significantly impact intraday players and option sellers.
- π« SEBI is also considering only one weekly expiry per exchange, which could limit intraday trading and affect the demand and supply of options.
Q & A
What happened to the Nifty last week?
-Last week, the Nifty rallied about 400 points.
How did the Bank Nifty perform compared to the Nifty?
-The Bank Nifty underperformed compared to the Nifty, only rising by 50 points.
What was the reason behind the profit booking in banks?
-Profit booking in banks on the last Friday was the main reason for the underperformance of the Bank Nifty.
How did the stock of Accenture perform?
-Accenture's stock started recovering on Friday due to good results.
What is the current trend for Reliance Industries stock?
-Reliance Industries has been consolidating around 3,000 rupees but has now moved significantly higher, looking bullish.
What was the impact of profit booking in US markets on Indian ADRs?
-Profit booking in US markets on Friday night led to a decline in ICICI Bank ADR, HDFC Bank ADR, and Infosys ADR, impacting the Nifty.
What is the expected range for Nifty during the October Series?
-The Nifty is expected to trade between 25,000 and 27,000 for the entire October Series.
What is the significance of the SEBI board meeting on September 30?
-The SEBI board meeting is significant as it may propose changes such as increasing margin money and lot size, which could affect intraday players and options trading.
What is the potential impact of increasing margin money by 5% on intraday players?
-Increasing margin money by 5% could significantly affect intraday players, as they would have to pay more, potentially by about 30,000 rupees for each contract.
How might the proposed changes by SEBI affect the volatility index?
-The proposed changes by SEBI may result in a demand-supply mismatch and increased premiums, potentially causing the volatility index to rise.
What is the expected market sentiment during the upcoming festive season?
-The market sentiment is expected to be positive during the upcoming festive season, as people usually make significant purchases, which could boost the economy and stock market.
What advice does the speaker give for trading positions ahead of the SEBI meeting?
-The speaker advises keeping trading positions light ahead of the SEBI meeting to manage potential risks.
Outlines
π Market Analysis and Predictions
The script discusses the performance of Nifty and Bank Nifty, highlighting a significant rally in Nifty contrasted with a modest rise in Bank Nifty due to profit booking in banks. Accenture and Reliance Industries' stock recovery and bullish outlook are mentioned. The script also notes the negative impact of profit booking in US markets on Indian indices, particularly through the performance of key ADRs. Geopolitical tensions and their typical market reactions are briefly discussed. The expectation for the Nifty to trade between 25,000 and 27,000 during the October series is presented, along with the impact of increased premiums due to it being a 5-week series. The upcoming SEI board meeting and its potential regulatory changes affecting intraday players, including margin money increases and lot size changes, are anticipated to influence the market. The script concludes with a discussion on economic data releases and their potential market impacts.
π Regulatory Changes and Market Impact
This paragraph delves into the potential market effects of SEI's regulatory proposals, such as increased margin requirements and lot size changes, which could lead to a demand-supply mismatch and higher premiums. The possibility of a rise in the volatility index is also considered. The script speculates on the retention of Bank Nifty and Bankx contracts and the potential disappearance of other weekly expiries if SEI enforces a single weekly expiry. The upcoming public holiday and its truncated trading week are noted, along with the implications for Bank Nifty's expiry. The paragraph concludes with a positive market outlook, suggesting a potential buying opportunity around 26,000 or 25,800 and the influence of the festival season on market sentiment. The advice to maintain light positions ahead of the SEI meeting is given, with an expectation of a trading range around 26,700 based on highest open interest in call options.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Nifty
π‘Bank Nifty
π‘Profit booking
π‘Reliance Industries
π‘Geopolitical tension
π‘ADR
π‘Volatility
π‘SEBI
π‘Margin money
π‘Option selling
π‘Intraday trading
Highlights
Nifty rallied about 400 points last week, while Bank Nifty only rose by 50 points.
Profit booking in banks on last Friday was the main reason for Bank Nifty's underperformance.
Accenture's good results led to stock recovery on Friday.
Reliance Industries has moved significantly higher, consolidating around 3,000 rupees.
Reliance Industries is looking bullish after a period of bearish trends.
Profit booking in US markets on Friday night impacted Nifty.
Geopolitical tensions in Israel and Lebanon may have a slight negative impact on markets.
Markets tend not to react to non-surprise news.
Markets might start with a slight negative bias, depending on Asian markets' performance.
US markets have been consolidating and this trend is expected to continue.
October Series is expected to be very volatile.
Nifty is likely to trade between 25,000 and 27,000 for the entire October Series.
Premiums are very good for options due to it being a 5-week series.
SEBI board meeting on September 30 will be keenly watched for their proposals.
SEBI committee recommended increasing margin money towards the end of expiry.
Increase in lot size by around five times may impact intraday players.
Demand-supply mismatch may result in increased premiums and higher volatility index.
Only one weekly expiry per exchange is being planned, affecting intraday players.
Markets still have a positive momentum, but profit booking cannot be ruled out.
Festival season may bring positive sentiment to the economy and stock market.
Markets are expected to have a positive bias, trading between 25,000 and 27,000.
Keep positions light ahead of the SEBI meeting.
Transcripts
hi this is p Sund welcome to thear stre
PE ahead program sponsored by delta.
exchange last week Nifty rallied about
400 points but Bank Nifty it was up
higher just by 50 points the profit
booking in banks on last Friday was the
main reason for the huge
underperformance of the bank Nifty and
more
because of good results from from
Accenture it stock started recovering on
Friday even the Reliance Industries sh
up nearly
2% Reliance Industries has been uh
consolidating around 3,000 rupees but
now it has moved significantly higher I
think about 70 80 rupees I think now
Reliance Industries is looking bullish
it stocks are also uh not very bearish
but they have been bearish for last many
many weeks now they're getting corrected
but there is some kind of a profit
booking particularly on Friday night in
US
markets icsi Bank ADR HDFC Bank ADR and
infosis ADR all the three key ads were
down more than
2% so that's why uh there was some
negative impact in gift Nifty I think
gift Nifty uh as of Friday night so it
is indicating about 50 point gap down
for Nifty but anyway Monday morning
things can change right but this are the
picture as of Saturday night there is
some geopolitical tension in Israel and
Lebanon but I think you know uh markets
do not worry I always say you know first
time when something comes it's surprise
second time third time it comes it's not
a surprise markets do not react to uh
you know markets react to only surprise
newses second time third time is not
surprise markets may not
react so uh in all probability tomorrow
we might start with some slight negative
bias uh again if it depends upon the
Asian markets if Asian markets are good
so who knows we may start flat
also uh US market for the last one week
it has been just consolidating and that
consolidation is likely to continue for
next one week also and because there are
no important economic data except the
first week of the month usual data like
monthly Auto Sales data manufacturing
pay data services PMI data and then on
Friday uh the us nonform payroll data or
the US jobs data that will be coming but
that's impact of that will be seen in
our Market in the following week
only so October Series so I can tell you
it's going to be very very volatile uh
in the past my observation is that
as in when there is a result season and
if that result season happens in the 5
week Series October is a 5 we series
long series and markets are
unpredictable and markets will be making
all kinds of
moves but broadly speaking Nifty is
likely to trade between 25,000 and
27,000 for the entire October Series so
that is expectation right now and
accordingly you know the premiums are
very good because it's a 5 we series
that two you know corporator Sals are
there uh I think 25,000 put and 27,000
call I think the combined premium is
more than 150
rupees right uh I think it's about 160
170 rupees the premiums are really very
good uh SEI board meeting is there on
September 30 uh the people will be
keenly watching for the uh their
proposals already the sebi committee
recommended three major things one is
increasing the margin money uh towards
the uh end of the
expiry that will be affecting the
intraday
players because already this year the
intraday players are not making any good
money but now they will have to pay more
margin money so that the increase in the
margin money will be very very
significant
I think they are planning to increase
margin by 5% so the 5% is very big uh
that will be you know like uh now if you
look at the Nifty Nifty contract size is
about uh uh 25 26,000 into 25 so that's
about 6 and half lakh rupees uh 6 and
half lakh rupees 5% will be about 30,000
rupees so there'll be increase in the
margin money by about 30,000 rupees for
for each contract for intraday
players right so that is one major thing
the second one is the lot size increase
and know the committee recommended you
know lot size increase by around five
times you know if that happens you
know all the marginal players will be
out the people who are indulging in
option selling for one lot two lot they
will not be able to do it so then they
may turn to buying of options so that
may create a demand Supply mismatch and
uh you know the more margin money for
sellers also uh that will make you know
uh how to say uh some people may not be
interested in selling option so there
will be less number of people selling
option but more number of people will be
buying the option so that demand
mismatch will uh result in increased
premium so when increased premium the
volatility index May go higher so I
think my expectation is that you know
now the volatility index is below 12 it
may go higher after the sebi proposal
and we have to wait and see what SE is
planning to do and another important uh
change there planning is that only one
weekly expiry per exchange so if that
happens you know uh most of the intraday
players they are doing exper day trading
act basically every day they do EXP
trade uh that is not possible and
probably if SEI inist only one weekly
expiry uh I'm thinking that uh uh NSC
will retain Bank Nifty and uh BC will
treat bankx all other uh weekly exper
will be gone uh anyway because there is
more speculation in Bank Nifty and bankx
uh than in Nifty so therefore no Nifty
may be available only for monthly
contract so uh these are all the like
like more than anything else the SEI
meeting will be very very important for
the coming week and then Wednesday is a
public holiday so therefore know it's a
truncated week only four trading session
Bank Nifty will expire by Tuesday so
that's why the premiums are not really
very high I was wondering why the
premium are not high because you know
there is one holiday so Bank Nifty
expiry we have only two more days for
Bank Nifty expiry so overall the market
know uh still having a positive momentum
but at the same time some profit booking
is not ruled out so any profit booking
you know by towards
26,000 or
25800 so that's an opportunity for
buyers usually around deepawali uh the
markets peek out for us because the
festival year most of the people will go
and do uh buy you know buy uh new car
new bike new dresses so everything
they'll do a lot of purchases so that
can hopefully uh bring a positive
sentiment to the economy and the stock
market so
uh broader expectation is that 25,000 to
27,000 uh with some kind of a positive
bias in the market so that is a
expectation for the coming week you know
uh we have only three more trading
sessions so I'm expecting you
know 26700 you know that is where the
highest open interest there is there in
the call options uh I don't know is it
26500 or 600 I think it is
600 so 26 600 on the higher side and
26,000 on the down side maybe uh range
for the next few trading
sessions so let us see uh uh because I
would advise you to keep your positions
very very
light ahead of the uh SE meeting so
that's my advice now so that's it for
now hope you enjoyed watching this video
thank you for watching
Browse More Related Video
Dalal Street Week Ahead: SEPTEMBER 4TH Week | 2024 | P R Sundar
Markets BROKE DOWN? Post Market Report 06-Sep-24
Markets BREAKING OUT? Post Market Report 30-Aug-24
Dalal Street Week Ahead: SEPTEMBER 1ST Week | 2024 | P R Sundar
Pre Market Report 05-Sep-2024
Can We Expect Outperformance in Engineering Sector? | MKLH | Raju Ranjan | Definedge | 21-May-2024
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)