The Next Stock Market Crash (How To Profit)

Summary

该视频脚本由Graham主讲，讨论了未来可能发生的股市崩盘及其应对策略。Graham首先回顾了历史上的几次重大股市崩盘，包括1929年大萧条、1970年代的通货膨胀和2008年的金融危机等。他强调，尽管市场崩溃可能带来巨大损失，但历史上从未导致投资者一无所有。接着，他提出了应对未来市场波动的建议，包括保持3到6个月的紧急基金、投资多元化、持续投资、不恐慌性抛售，并保持稳定的收入。Graham认为，通过这些策略，投资者可以更好地准备应对未来的市场波动，即使在短期内市场下跌，长期来看仍有可能获得利润。

Takeaways

• 📉 市场波动是正常现象，历史上的股市崩溃虽然剧烈，但并非灾难性的永久损失。
• 📈 股市崩溃的频率和严重程度不一，从10%的小幅回调到40%以上的市场崩溃都有可能发生。
• 💡 投资者应该了解历史上的股市崩溃，以便更好地准备和应对可能的市场低迷。
• 🌐 当前市场估值接近历史高点，一些分析师预测未来可能出现显著回调。
• 🔄 多元化投资是减少风险和波动性的有效策略，建议跨多个行业和公司进行投资。
• 🛒 长期定投策略在历史上被证明是成功的，即使在市场下跌时也应持续投资。
• 🚫 避免在市场下跌时恐慌性抛售，这可能导致错过市场恢复时的最佳投资时机。
• 💰 保持3到6个月的紧急基金，以应对可能的失业或收入减少情况。
• 💼 保持稳定的收入来源，以避免在市场低迷时不得不出售投资。
• 📋 投资应视为长期计划，短期市场波动不应影响长期的投资决策。

Q & A

视频中提到了多少个历史上的股市崩盘事件？

视频中提到了7个历史上的股市崩盘事件，包括1929年的大崩盘、1945年后的市场下跌、1970年代的股市动荡、1987年的黑色星期一、2001年的互联网泡沫破裂、2009年的大衰退以及2020年3月至4月的股市崩盘。

根据视频中的分析，股市调整的平均跌幅是多少？

根据视频中的分析，股市调整的平均跌幅是15.6%。

视频中提到的“熊市”是指什么？

视频中提到的“熊市”是指股市至少下跌20%的情况。

根据经济学家John Hussman的观点，非金融股票的交易水平预示着什么？

根据经济学家John Hussman的观点，非金融股票的交易水平预示着标准普尔500指数可能在未来12年内的年化回报率约为-5%。

视频中提到的“市场内在因素”是什么？

视频中提到的“市场内在因素”是指市场交易的基本面，例如股票的长期现金流价值和估值水平。

视频中提到的“恐慌性抛售”有什么负面影响？

视频中提到的“恐慌性抛售”会导致投资者在市场低点卖出股票，从而错过市场恢复时的最佳交易日，这可能会显著降低他们的长期投资回报。

视频中提到的“定投”策略有什么优势？

视频中提到的“定投”策略的优势在于，即使市场短期内出现波动，长期坚持定投可以平均购买成本，减少市场波动的影响，并在市场恢复时获得更大的收益。

视频中提到的“股市崩溃”是如何定义的？

视频中提到的“股市崩溃”是指整个市场而不仅仅是特定行业的股市至少下跌40%的情况。

视频中提到的“市场过度繁荣”有什么潜在风险？

视频中提到的“市场过度繁荣”可能会导致投资者因为价格持续上涨而盲目投资，忽略了市场的基本面和潜在风险，从而在市场回调时遭受损失。

视频中提到的“分散投资”策略的目的是什么？

视频中提到的“分散投资”策略的目的是为了降低风险和减少波动性，通过在多个行业和公司进行投资，避免单一市场或公司的问题对整个投资组合造成过大影响。

视频中提到的“紧急基金”应该保持多少个月的生活费用？

视频中提到的“紧急基金”应该保持3到6个月的生活费用，以应对可能的失业、收入减少或其他突发情况。

Outlines

00:00

📉 股市崩盘的可能性与历史回顾

本段讨论了股市崩盘的可能性，并回顾了历史上的几次重大股市崩盘事件。提到了当前股市的高估值和少数大公司对市场涨幅的贡献，以及市场可能面临的风险。接着，通过历史案例分析，如1929年大崩盘、1970年代的通货膨胀和利率上升导致的股市下跌、1987年的黑色星期一、2001年的互联网泡沫破裂、2009年的金融危机以及2020年的疫情引起的市场动荡，说明了股市崩盘虽然不可避免，但每次恢复后都能达到新高。

05:01

📈 股市波动的类型与频率

这一段详细介绍了股市波动的不同类型，包括股市回调、熊市和市场崩溃，并提供了这些波动发生的平均频率和持续时间。例如，股市回调定义为至少10%的跌幅，平均每隔16个月发生一次，而熊市则定义为至少20%的跌幅，平均每隔7到10年发生一次，并且平均持续时间为363天。此外，还讨论了市场崩溃的罕见性，以及历史上仅发生过三次的市场崩溃事件。

10:02

💡 股市为何下跌与应对策略

本段探讨了股市可能下跌的原因，引用了经济学家和分析师的观点，指出当前市场的高估值和企业盈利增长的不匹配。同时，提出了应对股市下跌的策略，包括保持3到6个月的紧急基金、投资多元化、持续投资、不恐慌性抛售、保持稳定的收入来源，并建议保留一些现金以备不时之需。这些策略旨在帮助投资者在面对市场波动时保持财务稳定，并能够抓住投资机会。

15:03

🚀 长期投资的重要性与市场前景

最后一段强调了长期投资的重要性，并指出即使在市场短期内出现波动，长期持有股票的历史表现从未出现过亏损。提到了通过定期投资和利用复利效应，投资者可以在20年的时间跨度内实现显著的资本增值。同时，提醒投资者要有长期的投资计划，并避免因短期市场波动而做出冲动的投资决策。最后，鼓励观众保持关注市场动态，并通过订阅作者的通讯获取更多信息。

Keywords

💡市场崩溃

市场崩溃是指股票市场价值急剧下降，通常伴随着广泛的经济问题。在视频中，提到了历史上几次著名的市场崩溃，如1929年的大萧条和2008年的金融危机。这些事件通常会导致投资者财富的大量缩水，并对经济产生长期影响。视频强调了理解市场崩溃的重要性，以便在未来可能的市场低迷时做好准备。

💡股市泡沫

股市泡沫是指股票价格远高于其内在价值的现象，通常由过度投机行为引起。视频中提到了2001年的互联网泡沫，当时许多互联网公司的股票价格飙升，但最终由于缺乏实际盈利而价值大跌。泡沫破裂后，市场通常会经历一段痛苦的调整期。

💡投资多样化

投资多样化是指将投资分散到多种不同的资产类别、行业或地理区域，以降低风险的策略。视频中强调了多样化投资的重要性，通过分散投资可以减少单一资产下跌对整个投资组合的影响。

💡紧急基金

紧急基金是个人为应对突发事件而储备的现金或易于变现的资产。在视频中，建议投资者始终保持3到6个月生活费用的紧急基金，以备不时之需，如失业或意外支出。

💡定投

定投是指在固定时间间隔内，以固定金额投资于某一资产的策略，通常用于投资股票市场或基金。视频中提到，即使在市场下跌时，持续定投可以帮助投资者长期获得更好的回报。

💡恐慌性抛售

恐慌性抛售是指投资者在市场下跌时出于恐慌情绪而大量卖出股票的行为。视频中提到，恐慌性抛售往往会导致投资者错失市场反弹的机会，从而减少投资回报。

💡收入稳定

收入稳定是指个人或家庭拥有持续且可靠的收入来源。视频中提到，在市场不稳定时，拥有稳定的收入可以帮助投资者避免在不利时机卖出投资。

💡现金储备

现金储备是指个人或机构持有的现金或等价物，用于应对短期需求或潜在的市场波动。视频中提到，虽然从长期收益的角度来看，持有现金可能不是最优选择，但它可以为投资者提供安全感。

💡长期投资

长期投资是指投资者持有资产超过一年的行为，通常是为了实现长期的财务目标。视频中强调了长期投资的重要性，并指出历史上20年的投资周期从未产生过负面结果。

💡市场波动

市场波动是指股票或其他金融资产价格在一定时期内的变动幅度。视频中讨论了市场波动的常态性，并提到即使在市场波动期间，通过适当的策略和心态，投资者仍可以保持投资的稳定性和收益性。

Highlights

市场崩溃是不可避免的，但了解如何应对可以最大化地利用这种情况。

1929年大崩盘后，市场花了25年才完全恢复。

1970年代，美国脱离金本位制导致通货膨胀和市场价值下跌40%。

1987年黑色星期一，股市单日跌幅超过20%，是有史以来最大的单日跌幅。

2001年互联网泡沫破裂，是由于对互联网公司的过度投机造成的。

2009年的金融危机中，房价下跌和银行破产导致股市下跌超过50%。

2020年3月至4月的COVID-19崩溃期间，市场在历史上最糟糕的单日跌幅中下跌了约30%。

2022年的市场崩溃是由于0%的利率、刺激措施和市场活动导致的价格上涨后的调整。

平均而言，股市下跌大约39%，持续平均22个月。

股市修正（下跌至少10%）每16个月发生一次，而熊市（下跌至少20%）每7到10年发生一次。

市场估值高可能导致长期回报降低，因为高估值意味着未来现金流的折现值降低。

股市的上涨不仅仅是由于经济的改善，还可能是由于对低利率的预期和盈利估计的提高。

无论市场如何变化，始终保持3至6个月的紧急基金是明智的。

多元化投资可以减少风险和波动性，通过在多个行业和公司中投资来分散资金。

持续投资是关键，即使市场短期内下跌，长期来看仍有可能获得显著收益。

避免恐慌性抛售，因为频繁买卖可能导致错过市场最好的交易日。

保持稳定的收入来源，以防万一需要在市场低迷时卖出投资。

如果担心市场风险，可以保留一些现金，但要注意长期回报可能不是最优的。

对于短期内需要使用的资金，避免投资于高风险资产，以免面临损失。

长期投资视角是关键，20年持有期从未产生过负面结果。

Transcripts

what's up you guys it's Graham here and

just when you thought things were going

well everything gets okay in all

seriousness we need to address a topic

that not a lot of people want to think

about and that's the fact that at some

point in the future there's going to be

another market crash after all stock

prices have already risen past their

brand new record highs just 10 companies

are responsible for almost all of those

gains and across nearly every single

measure the market is nearing the most

expensive it's ever been in history on

top of that we're already beginning to

see warnings that the S&P 5 00 could

fall as much as 50 to 70% some investors

believe today's prices are beginning to

mirror the extremes of 1929 and we're

now at a point that investors need to

consider that prices don't just go up

indefinitely Forever Without a few bumps

along the way so given all the recent

stock market Euphoria let's discuss

exactly what's going on the likelihood

of another crash coming sometime soon

and then what you could do about it to

plan ahead to make the best of the

situation although before we go into

that I just want to say a quick thank

you to the sponsor of today's video the

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done that already so thank you guys so

much and now let's begin all right so to

start I've said this before but in order

to understand how to best prepare for a

stock market downturn we first have to

cover the stock market crashes that have

happened in the past because even though

it's easy to think I don't want to lose

all of my money the truth is Market

collapses have never been completely cat

catastrophic to the point where you're

going to lose everything for example the

first one most people think about when

you hear market crash is the year of

1929 leading up to that throughout the

Roaring 1920s money was practically

pouring out of every crevice Banks were

lending money to anybody who asked and

people for a lack of a better word took

that money and then speculated on stock

prices because those prices just kept

going higher however once the market

showed even a slight glimpse of

vulnerability people began Cashing Out

withdrawing their money from the banks

for fear that the banks would be out of

business but Banks didn't have enough

cash to give back to all those customers

so one after one they began shutting

down that led to the stock market

dropping 83% over 2.8 years and the

stock market didn't fully recover until

25 years later however it wasn't exactly

smooth sailing because after the world

war of 1945 we saw another drop in the

markets of almost 22% over 6 months as

veterans re-entered the workforce began

competing for a limited supply of jobs

and the economy had to readjust without

all the government spending then again

in the 1970s we saw more turbulent times

between January of 1973 and December of

1974 the stock market lost over 40% of

its value this occurred when the US

dollar was removed from the gold

standard which led to Runaway inflation

so in order to combat that strict

policies were put in place to raise

interest rates and keep the value of our

money in check which inadvertently

caused everything else to come crashing

down but after that of course we have

the infamous Black Monday of 1987 when

stocks dropped over 20 2% in a single

day now the exact cause of this is a bit

unclear although because there weren't

any safeguards in place to prevent such

An Occurrence from happening this

mixture of factors led to a sequence of

once in a-lifetime events that caused

the single biggest day stock market drop

ever then we have the bubble of 2001

which was caused by a frenzy of

speculation over internet related

companies somewhat like we saw during

the IPO boom of 2021 except with

everything times 10 but that was

unsustainable when those companies

couldn't actually make any money so they

lost the vast majority of their value

sure enough though the market crashes

continued to in in 2009 we had the Great

Recession in this case Banks lent out

way too much money to people who weren't

qualified who then went to purchase

houses and once they couldn't sustain

those payments they began defaulting as

a result banks that held those loans

began shutting down people were losing

their homes left and right the entire

stock market dropped over 50% the

Federal Reserve stepped in to bail them

out and then everything recovered quite

well for the next decade until the co

Crash from March through April of 2020

we saw some of the single worst Point

day drops ever in history and from the

peak the S&P 500 dropped roughly 30% in

value but before the markets could drop

too far the Federal Reserve stepped in

they lowered interest rates put together

a bailout and within a month the market

began to recover and finally we have the

most recent event which would be the

stock market crash of

2022 why well thanks to 0% interest

rates stimulus tax breaks and a lot of

activity in the market prices rallied

basic basically from April of 2020 to

December of 2021 the S&P 500 increased

over 100% but once it became clear that

inflation was getting out of control and

that the Federal Reserve would have to

step in the market plummeted roughly 26%

over the following 10 months however

like every crash that came before us

that was only temporary and again we're

back at all-time highs so given how the

average stock market drop is roughly 39%

and last an average of 22 months is this

something that we have to worry about

today and how likely are we to see

another crash like this in the future

now in terms of how often the stock

market drops that really just depends on

how much it drops and the severity of

each drop is broken down as follows we

first have what's known as a stock

market correction which is defined as a

drop of at least 10% now it's important

to mention that normal volatility

throughout the market is extremely

common in fact since the 1920s the S&P

500 has un average seen a 5% pullback

three times a year the market

Corrections are also fairly common too

on average a 10% correction happens

every 16 months and throughout the last

20 years a 10% drop has happened 11

times and if you're like me and you like

averages the average drop has so far

been 15.6% and lasts for 71.6 days after

that though we go on to the slightly

more severe category and that's a bare

Market which is defined as a drop of at

least 20% according to the data this

typically occurs every 7 to 10 years and

when it hits it tends to hit pretty hard

during a bare Market the average drop

tends to be around 33% and it falls over

a period of 363 days now it's important

to mention that with all of this these

are just averages and that doesn't mean

the next drop is going to be exactly 33%

or that the next drop has to last a year

because most of the time they don't

conform to the average for instance back

in March of 2020 we saw the fastest 30%

drop ever in history since the Great

Depression so anything could happen

especially if you don't expect it to and

finally we have the last one to cover

and that would be a stop stock market

collaps I'd consider this to be a drop

of at least 40% throughout the entire

Market not just specific Industries and

throughout the last 120 years it's only

happened three times once in 1929 once

again in the 1970s and again in 209 so

an actual stock market collapse like

this isn't exactly common but it's not

impossible to happen throughout our

lifetimes that's why once we understand

the differences between these and how

often they happen we could come up with

the plan to best take advantage of them

and come out profitable so here's how to

start in terms of why the market could

drop some analysts have some very Choice

words to say about where the market is

trading because historically it is

expensive for example the economist John

husman makes the argument that

non-financial stocks are trading at

levels that we haven't seen since 1929

and 2001 because of that he believes

that these levels indicate that the S&P

500 is likely to return around -5%

annualized over the next 12 years he

also points to a metric that I have

never heard discussed before and that's

what's known as Market internals and

yeah that sounds confusing he gives us

an example one if enough speculators

believe that stock market gains are

driven by a tap dancing squirrel monkey

and that squirrel monkey begins to tap

dance stock prices go up at least in the

short term and two because those stocks

are ultimately valued in terms of their

long-term cash flow higher valuations

mean lower long-term returns which is

the reason why no speculative episode in

history is ever ended did well or

basically investor psychology plays a

large part in how the stock market

actively trades and when there's a

Divergence between reality and

speculation bad things tend to happen of

course to give some credit to these

claims John husman did correctly predict

that tech stocks back in 2001 would drop

83% before they literally fell 83% he

predicted the Lost decade of stocks in

the 2000s that wound up happening and he

predicted the 2008 Great Recession right

before everything collapsed although In

fairness I will say that his performance

since then has been pretty terrible his

strategic growth fund is down 40% since

2000 his total return fund is up only

11% in The Last 5 Years and a strategic

allocation fund lost 4.5% over the last

5 years so a broken clock could still

very well be right twice a day however

this time John husman isn't alone in his

thinking The Economist David Rosenberg

believes there's truth to these claims

that the stock market is poised to drop

saying that just like the clown at a

circus who keeps blowing up the balloon

at some point the balloon is going to

pop and a sort of look at the stock

market right now as the clown of the

circus blowing up the balloon his

reasoning though is a lot easier to

follow as he explains the S&P 500 is up

32% in the last 12 months while

corporate profits Rose just 4% this

means that the vast majority of those

gains clearly can't be attributed to

improvements and earnings results

instead the economy is simply going up

for three main reasons a better than

feared economy a significant jump in

earnings estimates and the expectation

of lower rates that's it this means that

his bare case is an S&P 500 dropping to

3,200 or a 39% drop from today's levels

unless companies can dramatically

increase their actual earnings the

legendary investor Jeremy Grantham also

seconds him by saying that prolonged

bull markets typically begin when

unemployment is high profit margins are

depressed and stock valuations are

beaten down current conditions are the

polar opposite of that especially when

the Shiller price to earnings ratio is

within the top 1% of its historical

range of course in terms of what you

could actually do about all this let's

just make one thing clear I'm not

suggesting that a market crash like this

is imminent or that one is going to

happen anytime soon because for every be

case out there there's just as equally

of a good bull case where stocks go even

higher like with Goldman sachs's recent

example for this reason all we know for

sure is that at some point in the future

the Market's going to crash again and

how you prepare for that is going to

make all the difference so this is what

you came for first always keep a 3 to 6-

Monon emergency fund at all times I know

I sound like a broken record because I

say this all the time in practically

every single one of my videos but it's

true having a 3 to 6month emergency fund

saved up in cash at all times is one of

the easiest things that you could do to

make it tree you last through a stock

market drop by doing this you're going

to be that much less likely to have to

sell off your stocks in the event you

lose your job see a reduction in income

or something unforeseen just comes up at

a time when everything's at a low second

diversify your Investments for example

if you're 100% invested in Nvidia Reddit

and Truth social there's a good chance

you could lose a good chunk of money

just like tech stocks dropped 78% during

the tech bubble there's a chance that

could happen to you too if you're not

properly invested across multiple

sectors and across multiple companies or

in other words the more you spread out

your money the more you reduce your risk

and decrease volatility and this is

exactly what I've done I've made sure to

have a small amount of ownership

throughout almost everything from index

funds to real estate to cash to

treasuries to bitcoin that way should

one of those markets fall I have more

than enough to make up for it with the

others and if everything drops I still

have to cash on hand to be able to

continue buying in third speaking of

buying in studies show that you should

just keep buying in listen I know it's

g- wrenching to watch your Investments

drop 10% only to buy in thinking you're

getting a great deal for it to drop

another 10% it keeps doing that until

eventually you give up but study after

study shows that the best thing

statistically that you could do is keep

buying in longterm even though a bare

Market could temporarily lose you an

average of 33% a bull market on the

other hand is an average gain of 158%

and it last almost five times longer

it's 1742 days that's why sure it's not

exactly encouraging to lose onethird of

your investment but with every loss

comes the opportunity for a much greater

gain if you stick with it oh and by the

way if you want an easy way to do this

there are apps out there that'll

literally do everything for you without

you needing to think about it for

instance I've partnered with acorns

which has a feature where they could

round up all of your purchases to the

nearest dollar and then invest the

difference in your behalf so if you

spend $2.50 on French fries that's 50

cents that automatically gets invested

something like this is also really

helpful just to stay the course stick

with the plan and keep investing long

term I've personally been using them

since 2018 and with regular

contributions I've now got almost

$100,000 invested with them and it's

growing like this year alone I'm up over

$6,000 just because the Market's done so

well so if you're interested in signing

up I was able to negotiate to get you a

$20 bonus just for the month of April

which is way higher than the $5 they

typically give you again that's $20 for

probably 3 minutes worth of work when

you go to acorns.com gram or use the

link Down Below in the description like

without exaggeration I was on a call

with them to bump this amount up as high

as I could and $20 is insane for just a

few minutes of your time like in less

time than it takes you to watch this

section of the video you can make $20

enjoy anyway speaking of all of this

that brings me to number four Don't

Panic sell here's what I've noticed the

psychology that causes you to sell when

your investment is dropping is usually

the same mindset that causes you to to

buy in because it keeps going higher and

you don't want to miss out in fact as an

example of this Peter Lynch's fund

throughout the 1980s had an annualized

return of 29% but the average investor

of that fund returned just 7% which was

even lower than market returns that's

because the vast majority of people

rushed in after it had already done well

and then they sold the moment it dropped

in price thereby eliminating most of the

benefits of sticking with it long term

on top of that another aspect to

consider is that over the last 20 years

a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500

would have turned into

$64,000 if you just kept the money

invested without touching it however if

you panic sell and Miss just the best 10

trading days over 20 years your return

diminishes down to

$29,000 if you miss the best 20 days

you'd lose out on $47,000 worth of

profit missing the best 30 days means

you've basically broken even over two

decades and if you miss the best 40 days

you'd flat out lose money so by cashing

out and then buying back in you risk

missing those best days that contribute

to a significant portion of your overall

return but of course assuming you could

do that number five make sure to keep a

steady income in this case the worst

possible scenario is that you lose your

job you don't have an emergency fund you

have to sell off your Investments to

stay afloat and you have to do all of

that during a time when your Investments

have declined in value this is why an

emergency fund would hopefully be enough

to hold you over until the market

eventually recovers but even if it

doesn't having a consistent income in

place is going to help prevent you from

having to sell off things when you don't

absolutely have have to and then finally

number six keep some extra cash on hand

if that makes you feel better I'll admit

statistically keeping cash on hand is

not the most optimal for results and

usually if you want the highest return

it's investing your money as soon as

possible but if you're worried about

doing that keeping more cash on hand is

a way to sleep at night oh and also I

just want to throw this in there as an

honorary number seven but if you need

the money in the short term it's

probably not a good idea to invest it in

anything risky the reality is a few

years is not long enough to ensure that

you're going to see a return on your

money and you could see a loss which is

not something you want to do for money

that you know you need in the future

this is why you should ideally view all

of this as a 10 to 20-year plan and if

you're young the longer the better the

reality is if you could do the above

you're practically guaranteed to make

money over a 20-year time span

regardless of what the market does in

the short term I say this so confidently

because throughout the entire history of

the stock market a 20-year holding

period has never once produced a

negative result that literally means

that you could buy in at the absolute

Peak that the day before a catastrophic

collapse not do a single thing for the

next two decades and still wind up

making money according to past results

on top of that what so many people don't

realize or simply forget especially if

you're young is that you're unlikely

just to make one single investment one

time and that's it forever instead even

though your initial investment might

drop realistically you're going to be

investing over a long period of time and

that'll dollar cost average your overall

portfolio that's why if you see your

investment drop and you decide not to

buy in you could very well be missing

out on those best days in the market and

that's not good so even though I've

shared this message in the past I feel

like it's especially important to share

again today because I'm seeing a lot

more stock market Euphoria a lot of new

investors beginning to enter the market

and a lot of people investing because

prices are just continually going up but

even though the market has so far done

really well just be conscious that as

fast as it could go up it could also go

down and at the end of the day at some

point in the future another stock market

crash is going to be inevitable is going

to happen tomorrow next week next month

next year who knows maybe the market

goes up another 100% before it drops 30%

anybody can make a prediction who knows

what's going to happen but at least when

you expect that it will happen at some

point in the future and you prepare for

it ahead of time by making sure you have

the emergency fund you're properly

Diversified and you know what to expect

you could at least be better prepared

not to make any mistakes like not

subscribing and hitting the like button

if you haven't done that already so with

that said thank you so much and as usual

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and until next time