"Ukraine gräbt sich in Erwartung russischer Offensive ein" - Reisner zu Kiews Militärstrategie | ntv

ntv Nachrichten

22 Jan 202411:06

Summary

TLDRIn a recent interview, Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces provides a comprehensive update on the situation in Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict. Reisner highlights Ukraine's strategic shift from offensive to defensive tactics in 2024, focusing on consolidating gains and preparing for possible future offensives in 2025. He details the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, including resource constraints and the necessity of adapting strategies in response to Russian advancements. Reisner also discusses the implications of NATO's large-scale exercise, Steadfast Defender, aimed at demonstrating the alliance's readiness and deterrence capabilities. The conversation reveals the complex dynamics of the conflict, emphasizing the strategic calculations on both sides and the critical role of international support for Ukraine.

Takeaways

📍 The Ukraine has announced a strategic shift from offensive to defensive operations in 2024, aiming to consolidate its gains and prepare for potential offensives in 2025.
🔨 Ukrainian forces are focusing on fortifying their positions, constructing trenches, and anti-tank obstacles in anticipation of a Russian offensive.
🛡️ The strategy shift to defense is influenced by resource constraints, particularly in munitions, necessitating a focus on conservation and consolidation.
🚨 Despite the defensive stance, Ukraine continues to engage in offensive actions outside the front lines, including drone strikes deep into Russian territory.
🔥 Ukraine reports successful attacks, such as on Russian aircraft and missile strikes on Crimea, highlighting ongoing efforts to maintain offensive capabilities.
💡 The conflict is multifaceted, with significant emphasis on controlling the information domain to maintain morale and the perception of momentum.
👍 Russia is believed to have a substantial resource advantage, including a higher rate of artillery munition production and deployment of forces.
🛠️ The difference in munition usage rates between Ukraine and Russia points to a significant disparity, impacting the dynamics of the conflict.
🔴 There are concerns about the sustainability of Ukraine's defensive capabilities if resource shortages, particularly in munitions, continue.
🚧 NATO's large-scale exercise 'Steadfast Defender' aims to demonstrate readiness and deterrence, showing the ability to rapidly mobilize and respond to threats.

Q & A

What strategic shift did Ukrainian officials announce for 2024?
-Ukrainian officials announced a shift from offensive operations to consolidating their defenses in 2024, with plans to possibly return to offensive operations in 2025.
Why did Ukraine decide to move from offensive to defensive operations?
-Ukraine recognized that due to supply difficulties, it was necessary to consolidate and strengthen its positions, focusing on holding gained territories and preparing for a potential Russian offensive.
What defensive measures are Ukrainian forces taking?
-Ukrainian forces are constructing fortifications such as trenches and anti-tank obstacles to strengthen their defensive positions in anticipation of a Russian offensive.
How is Ukraine attempting to maintain momentum despite focusing on defense?
-Despite focusing on defense, Ukraine is attempting to maintain momentum by carrying out long-range drone attacks deep into Russian territory and achieving tactical successes such as attacking Russian aircraft and launching missile strikes on Crimea.
What does the term 'Stellungskrieg' or 'position warfare' indicate about the current state of the conflict?
-The term 'Stellungskrieg' or 'position warfare' indicates that the conflict has evolved into a stalemate, with both sides entrenched and making limited territorial gains, reflecting a static front line.
What is the significance of controlling the information space in this conflict?
-Controlling the information space is crucial for maintaining morale and the perception of momentum, as it helps to ensure that the public and international community view one's side as maintaining the upper hand.
What challenges does Ukraine face in terms of resource and munition availability?
-Ukraine faces significant challenges due to a shortage of resources and munitions, relying on Western support for military supplies which has not fully met their needs, impacting their ability to sustain prolonged offensive operations.
How does the NATO exercise 'steadfast Defender' aim to impact the conflict?
-The NATO exercise 'steadfast Defender', involving 90,000 soldiers, aims to demonstrate readiness and deter aggression by showing the capability to rapidly respond to threats against any alliance member, enhancing collective defense posture.
What are the potential consequences of the current munition disparity between Russia and Ukraine?
-The disparity in munition supplies, with Russia having a significant advantage, could lead to Ukraine struggling to hold the front lines, raising the possibility of Russian breakthroughs if Ukraine cannot adequately replenish its resources.
What does the future hold for offensive operations by Ukraine according to the discussion?
-While 2024 is focused on defense and consolidation, Ukraine might undertake offensive operations in other domains, such as long-range attacks, but a significant ground offensive is planned for consideration in 2025, resources permitting.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Overview of the Military Situation in Ukraine

The video segment begins with Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces providing an analysis of the current military situation in Ukraine. He highlights a strategic shift by Ukrainian forces from offensive to defensive operations in anticipation of a Russian offensive. This decision is based on the recognition of supply difficulties and the need to consolidate gains from the previous year. Reisner explains the strategic cycle of setting objectives, defining pathways to achieve them, and adjusting strategies based on resource availability. The defensive stance involves fortification efforts and preparation for a potential Russian offensive, signifying a transition to a war of attrition. Additionally, despite the defensive focus, Ukraine continues to launch attacks deep into Russian territory, showcasing a multi-domain approach to warfare. The segment underscores the complexities of military strategy and resource management in the ongoing conflict.

05:01

🛡️ Ukraine's Military Strategy and Resource Challenges

This section delves into the future of the conflict, with Colonel Reisner expressing skepticism about immediate Ukrainian offensives due to the focus on consolidation and defense. He mentions the possibility of non-frontline offensives, targeting Russian military-industrial capabilities. The discussion then shifts to the challenges of resource allocation, particularly munitions shortages facing Ukraine. Despite promises of support from the European Union and the United States, the reality of munitions production and supply falls short of needs, with Russia maintaining a significant advantage in artillery munition supplies. This imbalance threatens Ukraine's ability to hold the frontline, emphasizing the critical role of resource availability in sustaining military operations. The narrative concludes with insights into the broader strategic implications of the conflict, including the potential for Russian breakthroughs and the urgent need for Ukraine to bolster its resources.

10:02

🌍 NATO's Response and Strategic Posturing

The final segment shifts focus to NATO's actions, specifically the commencement of the large-scale exercise 'steadfast Defender' involving 90,000 troops. Colonel Reisner discusses the significance of this maneuver in demonstrating NATO's readiness to respond to potential aggression from Russia. The exercise is aimed at showcasing the alliance's capability to quickly mobilize and deploy forces across Europe, addressing both conventional and hybrid threats. Reisner highlights the strategic dimensions of power, space, time, and information as critical factors in this demonstration of strength and preparedness. The exercise serves as a message to Russia, emphasizing NATO's commitment to defending its members and maintaining stability in Europe.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Offensive to Defensive Transition

The transition from offensive to defensive operations signifies a strategic shift by the Ukrainian forces as mentioned by officials such as President Zelensky and General Solusni. This strategic adjustment involves consolidating gains and preparing for potential future offensives, reflecting a response to current operational challenges and resource constraints. The concept is critical for understanding the adaptive nature of military strategy in response to evolving battlefield conditions and logistical realities.

💡Consolidation

Consolidation refers to the process of strengthening and securing territories that have been gained. In the context of the video, the Ukrainian forces aim to consolidate their positions throughout 2024 by enhancing fortifications and preparing defenses in anticipation of Russian offensives. This involves constructing trench systems, anti-tank obstacles, and other defensive measures, indicating a strategic pause to build resilience against enemy attacks.

💡Strategy Development

Strategy development involves setting objectives, defining paths to achieve them, and identifying the resources needed. The decision by Ukraine to shift from offensive to defensive operations reflects a strategic adaptation based on resource availability, including munitions and support capabilities. This concept highlights the importance of flexibility and resource management in military planning and execution.

💡Resource Constraints

Resource constraints refer to limitations in the availability of critical supplies, such as ammunition, which influence strategic decisions. The video discusses how such constraints have led Ukraine to adopt a defensive posture due to difficulties in sustaining offensive operations. This highlights the impact of logistics and supply chains on the conduct of military operations.

💡Trench Warfare

Trench warfare is a form of land warfare using occupied fighting lines consisting largely of military trenches. In the context of the video, both Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in trench warfare, indicating a stalemate where neither side can achieve decisive breakthroughs. This form of warfare emphasizes attrition and defensive measures, reflecting the current phase of the conflict as described.

💡Drone Strikes

Drone strikes refer to the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to conduct attacks on enemy targets. The video mentions Ukrainian efforts to extend their operational reach using drones to strike deep into Russian territory. This showcases the integration of modern technology in warfare and the ability to project power beyond the immediate battlefield.

💡Information Domain

The information domain encompasses the battle for control over information and narrative in warfare. The video highlights the significance of portraying successes and maintaining momentum in the information space to influence perceptions and morale. This domain is critical for understanding modern conflicts where psychological and informational warfare plays a key role alongside physical engagements.

💡Attrition Warfare

Attrition warfare is a strategy aimed at wearing down the opponent to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material. The video discusses the ongoing attrition warfare between Ukrainian and Russian forces, indicating a grueling contest of endurance and resources. This form of warfare underscores the brutal and protracted nature of the conflict.

💡NATO Exercises

NATO exercises, such as Steadfast Defender, are large-scale military drills intended to demonstrate the alliance's readiness and capability to respond to threats. The video mentions these exercises as a means of deterrence, showing NATO's commitment to collective defense and the ability to rapidly mobilize and deploy forces across Europe. This context illustrates the broader geopolitical dimensions of the conflict.

💡Munitions Shortage

A munitions shortage refers to the critical lack of ammunition and other essential supplies for conducting warfare. The video highlights the challenges faced by Ukraine due to a shortage of munitions, impacting their ability to sustain operations and defend against Russian advances. This situation emphasizes the crucial role of logistics and international support in the conflict's dynamics.

Highlights

Ukraine plans to switch from offensive to defensive operations in 2024 to consolidate forces for a possible offensive in 2025.

Ukrainian officials, including President Zelensky and General Zaluzhnyi, announced a strategic shift in military tactics.

Ukraine's strategy involves consolidating territory regained and bolstering defenses in anticipation of a Russian offensive.

Strategic development in warfare involves setting objectives, defining paths to those objectives, and evaluating available resources.

Ukraine's shift to a defensive stance is due to supply issues, particularly the shortage of munitions.

Current situation described as a stalemate, with Ukraine digging in and preparing for Russia's offensive.

Despite a defensive strategy, Ukraine continues to launch successful attacks deep into Russian territory.

Success in warfare also depends on controlling the information space to maintain a perception of momentum.

Frontline situation indicates slow Russian advances, with potential for breakthroughs in a war of attrition.

Ukraine faces challenges in resource and munition availability, influencing its strategic decisions.

NATO's large-scale exercise 'Steadfast Defender' aims to demonstrate readiness and deter potential aggression.

Steadfast Defender involves 90,000 troops, showcasing NATO's capability to rapidly mobilize and control strategic areas.

The exercise aims to address conventional and hybrid threats, ensuring preparedness across various scenarios.

The focus on the information domain during 'Steadfast Defender' aims to counter Russian dominance in the information space.

Oberst Markus Reisner provides a detailed assessment of the current and future military strategies and challenges in the Ukraine conflict.