Bitcoin TEST: Preparing for a Major Crypto BREAK OUT & BULL TRAP! (Watch ASAP)

Summary

The video discusses Bitcoin's trading performance, hovering around $3,000 and 4% off a new all-time high, and explores whether it's a bull trap or a legitimate breakout. It delves into the stock market's impact on Bitcoin, emphasizing the importance of patience in the volatile cryptocurrency market. The analysis includes a detailed examination of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones, and their correlations with Bitcoin's price movements. The video also considers the potential influence of CPI news and interest rate adjustments on market trends. Finally, it provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin's price action, discussing key resistance levels, potential targets, and the possibility of market corrections, advising viewers on strategic approaches to trading in the current market climate.

Takeaways

• 📈 Bitcoin is trading within $3,000 and 4% of a new all-time high, sparking discussions on whether it's a bull trap or a legitimate breakout.
• 🔄 The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience in the market, especially when everyone is looking for constant activity.
• 📊 The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones are experiencing a correction, sitting 6 days below their previous all-time highs with a 2.66% drop.
• 📉 The speaker notes that the current market situation might lead to a pause or slight correction for the stock markets, which could also affect Bitcoin.
• 💹 There's a discussion on the possibility of the stock market experiencing a grinding uptrend with bubble prices skyrocketing and minor corrections along the way.
• 📈 Bitcoin's price movement is closely watched, with the speaker noting that when the S&P 500 reaches new all-time highs, it often triggers a rally for Bitcoin.
• 🔄 The speaker references historical market data, highlighting a pattern of approximately 9-month lows followed by 6-month reaccumulations for Bitcoin.
• 🤔 The speaker considers the potential impact of CPI news and interest rate adjustments on the markets, noting a shift from interest rate cuts to possibly rate increases.
• 📊 The script discusses Bitcoin's price targets, emphasizing the need for the currency to close above certain levels to confirm sustained upward movement.
• 🔄 The speaker advises against getting swept up in market emotions and encourages focusing on chart signals and prudent financial management.
• 📈 The video ends with a call to focus on upcoming patterns and price targets as the market potentially moves towards new highs or consolidates.

Q & A

What is the current trading range for Bitcoin mentioned in the transcript?

Bitcoin is trading within $3,000 and 4% of a new all-time high.

What does the quote about the market transferring money imply?

The quote suggests that those who are patient in the market, waiting for the right signals, tend to outperform those who are impatient and constantly looking for opportunities.

How long has it been since the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones hit a new all-time high?

It has been 6 days since these markets last hit a new all-time high.

What is the significance of the 26-day period for Bitcoin?

The 26-day period signifies the longest time since the ETF correction that Bitcoin has not reached a new all-time high.

What is the current status of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones in terms of their performance from their previous all-time high?

They are sitting 6 days underneath the previous all-time high and are down 2.66%.

What is the historical pattern observed in the stock market regarding uptrends and corrections?

The historical pattern observed is a grinding uptrend with everything bubble prices skyrocketing and asset prices increasing, with single-digit corrections along the way up for the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones.

What is the possibility being considered for the stock market based on the analysis?

The possibility being considered is an extended period of time with a slowing grinding effect, potentially into May or June, as a pause or slight correction for the stock markets.

How does the performance of the stock market historically affect Bitcoin?

Historically, when the S&P 500 shoots to new all-time highs, it has caused a rally in Bitcoin. However, the current situation is being monitored for potential stalls or trades within a trading range for BTC.

What is the significance of the 50% level for the Dow Jones?

The 50% level for the Dow Jones is significant as it serves as a point of assessment for whether the market is stronger or weaker. If the market stays above the 50% level, it indicates a stronger market; if it stays below, it indicates a weaker market.

What is the current stance on interest rate cuts according to the transcript?

The current stance is that it's unlikely there will be interest rate cuts every single month due to the bullish markets. The markets are adjusting their positions around interest rates, and there might even be a shift to interest rate rises.

What is the potential next move for Bitcoin based on the script?

The potential next move for Bitcoin could be a sustained move higher for a longer period, with price targets to the upside such as breaking the $73,800 level and potentially reaching $78,400 or higher.

What does the USDT dominance indicate in relation to Bitcoin price?

The USDT dominance has been a reliable indicator of pauses for Bitcoin price and even turns in some examples. Significant peaks for Bitcoin have occurred each time the price has come back to the line of USDT dominance.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin's Trading Range and Market Analysis

The paragraph discusses the trading range of Bitcoin, fluctuating between $3,000 and 4% of a new all-time high. It introduces the theme of the video, which is to determine whether the current market situation is a bull trap or a legitimate breakout. The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience in the market, especially when many institutions are involved, and shares a quote highlighting the advantage of patience in transferring money from the impatient to the patient. The video aims to provide insights into the stock markets and Bitcoin at this stage of the cycle.

05:00

📉 Stock Market Corrections and Bitcoin's Position

This paragraph delves into the stock market corrections, specifically focusing on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones. It highlights the duration and percentage of the drop from their all-time highs and compares it to previous market behaviors. The speaker discusses the possibility of a grinding uptrend and the impact of stock market corrections on Bitcoin. Historical data and patterns are used to analyze the potential for a pause or correction in the market, which could affect Bitcoin's price. The paragraph also touches on the relationship between the S&P 500 all-time highs and Bitcoin's price rally.

10:01

🔄 Market Cycles and Bitcoin's Performance

The speaker examines the market cycles and Bitcoin's performance within them. It discusses the accumulation periods for Bitcoin and the significant price increases that followed. The paragraph also explores the concept of market pauses and corrections, using historical data to predict potential market behavior. The speaker provides a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's trading range and the importance of certain price levels. The discussion includes potential resistance levels and targets for Bitcoin, as well as the implications of these levels for short-term and long-term market trends.

15:02

🌐 Global Events and Market Implications

This paragraph considers the impact of global events, such as the Israel and Palestine conflict, on the stock markets and Bitcoin. The speaker discusses the potential for continued market grind and the influence of CPI news on market behavior. The paragraph also addresses the topic of interest rates and their historical relationship with market performance. The speaker shares insights on how the markets might react to interest rate changes and the potential for a shift towards interest rate increases rather than cuts.

20:02

💹 Bitcoin's Price Movements and Market Analysis

The focus of this paragraph is on Bitcoin's price movements and the analysis of its market trends. The speaker discusses the targets for Bitcoin's price and the significance of closing prices above certain levels. The paragraph explores the potential for a sustained move higher and the importance of breaking through resistance levels. The speaker also considers the possibility of a market correction and provides a detailed examination of Bitcoin's price targets on both daily and weekly charts.

25:03

📊 Bitcoin's Dominance and Market Indicators

This paragraph examines the Bitcoin dominance indicator and its historical significance in signaling market pauses and turns. The speaker analyzes the Bitcoin index chart and the USDT dominance pattern, highlighting their reliability in indicating market trends. The paragraph discusses the potential for a market pause or correction, drawing parallels with past market behaviors. The speaker provides a comprehensive overview of the market's potential movements, considering various factors such as seasonal turns and the performance of Bitcoin in relation to its historical patterns.

🚀 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies

The final paragraph offers a market outlook and trading strategies based on the analysis provided in the previous paragraphs. The speaker advises on taking profits and managing expectations regarding market peaks and bottoms. The paragraph emphasizes the importance of individual trading goals and strategies, and the challenges of market timing. The speaker encourages viewers to stay informed and engaged with market patterns and price movements, and to subscribe for future updates.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, Bitcoin's trading patterns, price fluctuations, and its relationship with the stock market are discussed extensively. The analysis includes whether the current trading behavior indicates a bull market, a trap, or a legitimate breakout.

💡Stock Markets

Stock markets are places where shares of publicly traded companies are bought and sold by investors. The video talks about the stock markets, particularly the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones, in relation to their performance and how they might influence or be influenced by Bitcoin's price action. The speaker discusses the concept of grinding uptrend and the impact of market corrections on investor behavior.

💡All-Time High

An all-time high refers to the highest price that an asset, such as a stock or cryptocurrency, has ever reached. In the context of the video, the discussion revolves around whether Bitcoin and the stock markets are approaching or have reached new all-time highs, and what this could signify for future trading patterns.

💡Bull Market

A bull market is a period of time when the prices of securities, such as stocks or cryptocurrencies, are rising or are expected to rise. The term 'bull' is used to describe a market sentiment characterized by optimism. In the video, the speaker tries to determine if the current market conditions for Bitcoin and stock markets are indicative of a bull market.

💡Market Correction

A market correction in finance is a decline of at least 10% from a peak in the price of a financial asset, like stocks or cryptocurrencies. Corrections are normal parts of market cycles and can provide opportunities for investors to buy into markets at lower prices. The video analyzes the length and depth of market corrections and their potential impact on investor psychology and future market direction.

💡Trading Range

A trading range is the difference between the highest and lowest price of a financial instrument, such as a stock or cryptocurrency, within a specific period. It is used by traders to identify potential support and resistance levels. In the video, the concept of a trading range is used to discuss potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement and how it might interact with the broader markets.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing and the return on investment for savers. Central banks set the base interest rate, which influences other interest rates throughout the economy. Changes in interest rates can affect financial markets, including stock markets and cryptocurrencies. The video discusses how the anticipation of interest rate changes by central banks might impact market behavior and investor decisions.

💡CPI News

CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is a key indicator of inflation and is used by governments and central banks to make monetary policy decisions. In the video, the speaker mentions that upcoming CPI news could influence market movements, as investors wait to see the impact on inflation.

💡USDT Dominance

USDT, or Tether, is a stablecoin cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar. Its dominance refers to the market share of USDT in comparison to other cryptocurrencies. In the context of the video, USDT dominance is used as an indicator to analyze Bitcoin's price movements and potential market trends. High USDT dominance could suggest a stronger market sentiment for Bitcoin.

💡Seasonal Turns

Seasonal turns refer to the periodic changes in market trends that occur within certain seasons or time frames. These can be influenced by various factors, including economic cycles, investor behavior, and historical market patterns. In the video, the speaker notes that certain months, such as March, April, and June, have historically been periods of significant turns in the Bitcoin market.

💡Accumulation Zone

An accumulation zone in financial markets refers to a price range where buying activity is strong enough to prevent further price declines, indicating that investors are accumulating the asset. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses the concept of accumulation zones in relation to Bitcoin's price history, suggesting that periods of accumulation can precede significant price increases.

Highlights

Bitcoin's trading within $3,000 and 4% of a new all-time high, leading to discussions on whether this is a bull trap or a legitimate breakout.

The importance of patience in the market is emphasized, with institutions often lacking this quality, which can lead to significant returns for patient investors.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones have been experiencing a correction, sitting 6 days below their previous all-time highs and down 2.66%.

The possibility of a grinding uptrend with the stock markets and its potential impact on Bitcoin is explored, as previous rallies in the S&P 500 have historically led to increased Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin's price movement is closely watched, with the last 26 days showing no new all-time highs, one of the longest periods since the ETF correction.

The analysis of the Dow Jones suggests that if it stays above the 50% level, it indicates a stronger market, while staying below suggests a weaker market and potentially longer correction.

The CPI news and its potential impact on market movements is discussed, with markets adjusting positions around interest rates.

The historical pattern of interest rate cuts and their effect on the markets is examined, showing that markets continue to rise even with interest rate hikes.

The impact of gold and silver's new all-time high prices on the overall market sentiment is noted, with asset prices increasing across the board.

Bitcoin's current price movement is analyzed, with the target of $72,500 recently touched but not closed above, indicating uncertainty in the market.

The potential for a sustained move higher for Bitcoin is discussed, with price targets set at $73,800 and then $78,400 as key levels to watch.

The analysis of the weekly chart for Bitcoin suggests that if the price fails at the resistance levels, it could lead to a downside.

The concept of taking profits at different levels rather than trying to catch the exact peaks and bottoms is recommended for a more stable investment strategy.

The USDT dominance indicator's role in signaling potential pauses or turns in Bitcoin price is explored, with historical data showing significant correlations.

The potential for a market pause or correction is discussed, with historical patterns suggesting significant turns around the March, April, and June period.

The analysis concludes that while there may be a potential pause or correction, it is not necessarily the end of the move, and the market could still push higher in the future.

Transcripts

bitcoin's trading within $3,000 and 4%

of a new all-time high so is this a bull

trrap or a legitimate breakout that's

what we're going to uncover in today's

video giving you everything you need to

know about the stock markets and Bitcoin

at this stage of the cycle Smash Up the

like subscribe if you haven't already

now we got a ton of analysis to get

through but I thought this is the best

way to start off this video especially

with a lot of the markets not hitting

new all-time highs for a number of days

weeks weeks maybe even coming up to a

month in the case of Bitcoin and we're

at 26 days now but this quote goes a

very long way especially in

cryptocurrency when everyone is looking

for something to do every single day

there's got to be something going on

from the legend himself the market is a

device for transferring money from the

impatient to the patient now we don't

have so many different edges when you've

got a lot of Institutions getting into

the game what they don't have is the

patient

if you can develop that in your own game

have some sort of patience I think is so

underrated and has the power to return

many many multiples so this is one of my

favorite quotes it's one of my edges

I've found over the last several years

is being patient with the market when

everyone wants it to do something just

wait for the signals to come up the

market will tell us when it wants to do

something all right let's kick it off

let's kick off with the S&P 500 as we've

continued for the the US Stock markets

to follow along with this correction

from a new all-time high price now I put

out the last video looking at Bitcoin

entering one of the biggest stock market

Corrections in over six months and of

course Bitcoin hasn't had a new all-time

high in the last 26 days so one of the

longest periods since the ETF correction

so as an update for the S&P 500 the

NASDAQ and the uh Dow Jones we're now

sitting 6 days underneath the previous

old alltime high and down 2.66% % the

previous longest streak that the S&P had

run was 2.88% to the downside in 14 days

until it reached a new high price and in

that case it was a new all-time high

price now with these stock markets our

view has been that we're going on a

grinding uptrend with the everything

bubble prices uh skyrocketing asset

prices going up and the majority the

masses even hedge funds and other big

players are waiting for bigger

Corrections and they haven't got them

that has been the case for now nearly 6

months with single digit Corrections all

the way up for the S&P 500 for the

NASDAQ and the Dow Jones so what we've

seen also on the NASDAQ is uh 12 days

down from the alltime high 3.5% down now

from that all-time high and the previous

biggest correction and longest time

frame was that correction around the

all-time high when it just broke out in

January of this year or mid December and

then the January period as well so that

was

4.84% 14 bars or 14 trading days to get

to a new all-time high so what I'm

looking at here is the possibility of

this slowing grinding effect for a an

extended period of time as we've looked

at with the March April period

potentially into May or June depending

on what comes next of course but looking

at this period as being maybe a pause or

a slight correction for the stock market

markets if that is the case well that's

obviously going to affect Bitcoin as

well as it's something that we've

covered with the Bitcoin price when the

s&p500 shoots to new all-time highs the

past has shown the S&P 500 has broken

into new all-time highs that's caused a

bit of a rally on bitcoin we've seen

that this time as well obviously the

ETFs are here but just looking at the uh

the chart and the flow of money s&p500

ran up in 2019 basically had a bit of a

sideways grind Bitcoin also ran up in

had a pullback roughly 50% but it was a

300% run up at that stage and then uh

the S&P went on its final leg here Co

happened and then it came back to test a

new all-time high price which was then

what we now know I should say the 20120

2021 bull market for Bitcoin and

cryptocurrencies it's happened before

we've seen it in the past looking at

2015 into 2017 now we've gone through

this on the channel before many many

times which helped us identify the the

lows for the market we saw a rough 9mon

low and then a 6mon reaccumulation for

Bitcoin which is why we're on this Mega

Run now there there was a long time of

accumulation that occurred in 22 and 23

which has led to the the market

conditions that we see them now the

largest correction that it's had since

that October low let's get it on to the

daily chart here we're at

3.7% to the downside and we're into our

sixth day underneath the old all-time

high the previous

record if we can call it that was 12

days underneath the old alltime high

2.1% down from a peak so we definitely

have the the largest Peak now since

October which was the Israel and

Palestine War we're seeing more flare

ups in the Middle East and that was

again six months ago so the main thing

I'm looking at here when it comes to the

stock markets is if this is going to be

a continued grind a pause a correction

not a collapse then we might see prices

also stall or basically trade within a

trading range for BTC as I as we'll have

a look at in a moment I understand that

sounds crazy for some even if the price

goes a little higher we'll we'll we'll

cover that for Bitcoin because we've

seen that sort of thing happen before so

in the short term for the Dow Jones

above the 50% is stronger below is

weaker that's the thing we're looking

out for here to to assess whether we're

going to see higher prices sooner that's

why it says strong and shorter or weak

and longer so if it stays underneath the

levels then you're going to get a drawn

out period which means the market is

slightly weaker you've got a 50% bounce

already from this particular correction

so there's the low there's the high and

the market has dropped dead on to that

50% level for two days now so if it

starts to break down from that level

then we would have to reassess and pull

this trigger uh pull the 50% level

further back to see what happens next

with the Dow Jones overall we're still

in uh a major bull market everything

bubble macro bull market we're not

getting any sort of major collapses here

but another reason for this particular

correction could in fact be the CPI news

coming out this week you know the

markets waiting to see what happens

there with inflation but they're also

adjusting their positions around the

interest rates now you've heard me talk

about this many many times before this

is uh the the I've posted this in

January where there was basically a cut

every single month and the suggestion I

made for this particular post here on

Twitter was that it's probably unlikely

that we would see Cuts every single

month because of how bullish the markets

are you're not going to see cuts when

the markets are racing away to new

all-time highs like it just it it

doesn't happen and if it does it's very

short-lived because that Spurs on the

enthusiasm even more and so they have to

raise the the interest rates again and

so this was the uh the January post you

can see there were Cuts almost every

single meeting and now we're down to two

that was the big news yesterday after

we've gotten uh where there was three

interest rate cuts and then finally if I

can find here's the post now there is

only two interest rate Cuts you can see

here 5 and a half down to 5 and a qu

down to five for this year but we're

also starting to see more shifts to the

right so there might not even be cuts

and maybe the Market is trying to price

in or start to get more familiar more

comfortable with no interest rate cuts

and maybe an interest rate rise which

was very different to what everyone

believed at the beginning of this year

and basically that's what I've talked

about here in this post even if that is

to occur I still think the markets are

going to go up from there because the

markets are going up even on the back of

interest rate Rises and if we saw it

again depending where we are on the

cycle I think the the markets are going

to go up from that point as we can see

here from Seth if matters uh this is for

interest rate cuts it matters little if

or when the FED Cuts so essentially this

is just looking at the history of them

going back to the 70s in this case rates

can be hiked rates can be cut the

markets will do what the markets do it

is a fallacy to believe that when

interest rates are cut that means

something is broken and the markets have

to go down from that point it's not

entirely true when you look at at the

data I don't know where these other

people are getting their data from to

say that when the market when the FED

Cuts rates the markets collapse we've

proved it time and time again but of

course everyone's going to choose what

what they want to choose so we've looked

at this cuts no Cuts pauses whatever the

cycle is up the charts are showing very

strong ground to the upside even with

gold also hitting new all-time high

prices we've also seen new fresh prices

uh for silver as well hitting $28 an

ounce so there's a lot going on in the

markets with asset prices increasing as

stock markets are also increasing as

interest rates are pausing and might I

don't know for sure I'm not the FED but

they might also increase we've also seen

asset or in the case of metals we've

seen them rise in the second half of the

real estate cycle last cycle 2003 4 5 6

7 gold and silver were going up real

estate was going up stock markets were

going up and if crypto and Bitcoin

around I would imagine they were also

they would also be going up at that time

that leads us to bitcoin and crypto and

essentially what you came here for as we

got a background now about the markets

what's going on there Bitcoin surging is

this the end are we going to see further

breakouts is it a bull trap essentially

the news doesn't really say much today I

think they're all trying to come up with

another reason as to why Bitcoin is

going up the haring's less than 12 12

days away now maybe that's a particular

reason why we're still seeing prices uh

with some activity into the prices but

essentially Bitcoin is slightly dropping

off at the moment the Target that we're

looking at at least um in the last

several days probably a few weeks now

was

72,500 which is this white line here so

we've touched that Target but it did not

close above there uh did it get on a 4H

hour no just closed slightly under that

level and on The Daily we closed down at

71 600 with the market still correcting

at the moment that was a key level that

was the gotcha bar we've talked about

that multiple times so I won't go into

it again we got to that level but the

closes haven't been there yet so now

we're in this next little no man's Zone

No Man's Land Between the previous tops

and that key level of mine here which

was 72 and

$5,000 so it's doing everything possible

to climb higher but not give any

confirmed signals that it is going to

keep breaking higher for for an extended

period of time it depends on your own

time frame I'm just going to look at the

shorter term stuff here the 4-Hour chart

uh it's got some closes above those

levels so that's a good sign we've got

some uptrend happening here at least in

the short term as for the daily chart we

got a close $100 underneath that

previous Peak there on the 27th of March

so it's doing everything in its power to

climb higher but it's not giving us

those conf firm signals of strength to

get to those Next prices for a sustained

period of time now I've got price

targets to the upside should we break

this High to let us know whether this is

going to be a sustained move higher for

a longer period we're talking weeks and

months not just days like what we've

seen in the past with previous tops

especially at these levels especially uh

with extended periods of green months so

very nice strong moves to the upside

essentially closes above the all-time

high is going to be the first business

here for for BTC so closes above 78,000

sorry

73,800 and then it's got to get through

the 50% level here $78,400 that's the

level I'm looking at for now based on

the chart itself so the low to the high

projected off the low 50% there is at

$78,400 if Bitcoin fails at those prices

78 and then 81 here that could lead to

down side again it needs to get through

those levels to show the strength

consolidate to then push higher

otherwise this is all going to be the

same story that we saw in the previous

cycle back in April where we had April

2021 where we had a top in March pull

back it went on another charge to higher

prices it got above the March top in

April by 5%

$3,000 and then had a very significant

pullback so it's easy to get super

excited for higher prices uh I don't

want to rain on anyone's parade here and

not give them the Positive Vibes they'

all come to to expect from

cryptocurrency but if you're worried

about your money and you like your money

well then you'd pay attention to what's

going on in the chart and not get too

swept up in the emotions of higher

prices now that's the short-term outlook

for the upside should we see some

consolidation to again to then press to

higher prices to push to higher prices a

break above these tops 71 700 then the

alltime high

73,800 then to get through those

resistance levels at 782 and 815 th000

which is a longer term view here on the

weekly chart so before I get to the

weekly just want to look to the downside

here you get breakdowns of the Swing

bottoms at 64,500 well then we're

probably going to come back and test

these lows here that's at

6,700 and the other bottom there at

62,200 so what that means is further

close underneath these tops well then it

spells a little bit more downside

testing these levels and a break we then

test these levels that's the case well

then we head back into the 50s we don't

have any confirmed signs yet the trend

is undecided now on The Daily because we

have higher highs formed and lower lows

formed so it's an uncertain Trend but

the momentum is currently to the upside

with that little risky close there $100

underneath the top of the the 27th of

March so that leads us over to the

weekly chart what's going on here and

with that Weekly Trend up we can see

that there was a similar pattern that

happened in the last cycle there was

higher highs higher lows but a big thing

to know and this happens over a longer

period of time I know I have to keep

explaining this because people are

looking at 12 hours and hourly charts

but anyway look at the period here at

the top 12 bars that is weeks that's

essentially 3 months 84 days 3 months at

these highs the price pushed higher in

April and then had a correction so I'm

not ruling anything out I'm just focused

on the charts and what I'm looking at

are the movements to the upside you can

see these moves are getting very small

from top to top as the market begins to

roll over so you got $3,400 top to top

basically a 6% move there and then this

top to this top was a 5% move so you had

the the Gap shortening there with those

moves to the upside are we seeing

something similar this time we don't

have any signs yet of a move higher so

if you start to see the gaps get smaller

between tops to top that could mean that

we're seeing some sort of pause which

might be followed with a correction as

I've talked about many times uh these

moves can take some time so if we look

forward to roughly 12 weeks 13 weeks you

know 3 months that takes us out to June

so we have the harving coming up in less

than two weeks maybe there's a bit of

time to pause here and reconsolidate

before we start moving higher and this

also falls in line with the other data

that we've looked at when it comes to

Green months for BTC we've already seen

seven green months so that's a higher

close than an open and we've seen I've

got my monthly chart here uh six months

in the same swing so this is only this

only happens 14% of the time where you

see six months within the same swing of

higher highs and higher lows if we're to

get to seven months so this one here to

push higher uh in April to push higher

here doesn't matter if it closes red but

we would get a seventh month that only

happens 7% of the time and if it was to

go higher again in May it's never

happened before within the same swing

not saying it can't happen but it's

never happened before which means then

that percentage is basically dropped to

zero give it 1% chance of it happening

in May where you'd get a higher high and

a higher low from April so in terms of

the green months here uh seven months

straight is what we've SE seen in 20 so

yeah 2012 and we've seen that again in

23 and 24 so April's yet to close let's

see if we do get to that uh that eight

months of green but nonetheless these

periods well these sort of patterns take

time to develop if they are in fact

developing into some sort of pause or

correction we've already seen now in

terms of a pause about 35 days so within

this same trading range between 60 and

$73,000 we've already seen many many

days there you could almost count it up

as being about 35 to 40 days so really

the price has paused here the same thing

happened back at the ETF you can see

where the price peaked uh the first week

of December and then we had to move up

we had the correction and then it lasted

about 56 days within that same trading

range between 40 and $50,000 before it

got a move on in first week of Feb and

started to push towards $50,000 now on

top of the monthly swings coming to A

point where the probability is starting

to get stacked well against us and also

coming to the point where the monthly

green versus red the monthly profit and

loss is also starting to stack against

us we've also seen seasonal turns around

this time in the market so uh over the

course of bitcoin's entire history

monthly chart here April June is period

we've got March uh sorry yeah March

April and June have shown turns before

significant turns in the market and so

throughout each of the Cycles roughly at

least twice you would see a a March

April or June turn before the market

pauses and then comes back for more

gains so the Cycle's not over it just

typically in the past has shown

significant pauses or or turns at this

stage of the move or especially at this

stage of the Year roughly that March

April June period of the year as we're

on the monthly chart this also gives us

a good chance to have a look at that

next price Target and if we're looking

at the 50% level right in here that we

just checked out on the weekly chart

it's in there at $81,300 so that price

comes from the entire cycle of 2019 into

2021 projected off our current cycle low

of uh 2022 and just run straight up here

that's actually the 100% there at 81,000

the 50% was just this current weekly

move so there's a little bit of price

cluster coming in here on larger term

time frames that we need to be aware of

should the price break through these

levels do we get a price um breakout

above that and consolidation above those

levels that's going to be even stronger

for Bitcoin should it get there

consolidate above those levels and then

take off again it's going to be a really

really strong move or do we see some

sort of rejection and it just comes back

to sit within that sort of $50 to

$80,000 range over the coming months

still not the worst case scario you

would not want to see the price go under

$48,000 but for now anything in that

sort of mid-50s to high 7s early 80s is

not a bad sign especially after such a

big move after a 9mon first accumulation

Zone and then a 7-month reaccumulation

zone now the usdt dominance has been a

pretty reliable indicator of at least

pauses for bitcoin price and even turns

in some examples now can check up the

Bitcoin index chart here so we've got

the candles uh in green and red at the

back that is the Bitcoin price gets a

little bit messy but we'll just go

through one one at a time here and then

on the bars you've got the usdt

dominance on a diagonal uptrend here

each of the white arrows shows

significant Peaks for uh Bitcoin so you

can see going back December 2017 that

was the all-time high for Bitcoin

$20,000 that was the first starting

point here now each time it's come back

to the line it's been significant turns

that is your June 2019 turn that was a

300% rise before a 50% collapse then uh

followed by enough another roughly 60%

collapse from the February top which is

also another point on the diagonal

uptrend here now if we take it to the

April top which is something that I've

been referencing quite a lot for this

particular uh period for Bitcoin let's

turn this off again just so you can get

a a better idea you had January get

close to the line you had February touch

the line you had March touch the line

and you had April touch the line and

then also May touch the line so you had

about four to five months of time frames

here hitting that line if I throw the

Bitcoin price back on you can see that

January was well down here and then

February put in a big top big pullback

March also had a pretty big run and then

April started to roll over at that point

so you had uh less movements from one

high to the next and that's what we've

been looking at or keeping an eye on in

case we start to see that for Bitcoin at

this top which can last one two three

four months around this period not to

say the Bitcoin is over and the tops in

we're just looking at what the

probabilities have shown in the past

especially after such significant runs

so that period lasted for quite some

time that was actually the top there

even though the bottom of the move for

the usdt dominance came 2 months earlier

but nonetheless that was all through

that particular uh period there and

price was roughly around that same level

a big trading range there of uh what's

it for BTC 45ish ,000 to the Peaks there

at

$65,000 so a pretty sizable price range

there uh sizable trading range which

maybe we see something similar to to

that occurring now for BTC now moving

forward you had another hit there at the

all-time high on the dominance you had

another hit in June and November you can

see it just getting a hit a little

bounce hit November December and came

back above and now we find ourselves in

March at the Bitcoin alltime high so I'm

just looking at something like this

potentially occurring because it's the

most similar to to what's happened

already with several straight months up

big moves towards the end and now we

find ourselves in April

layer on top of everything else I've

looked at when it comes to seasonal

turns when it comes to extensions of

moves when it comes to shortterm

outlooks to the upside and price um

targets for the market to get above in

this case Bitcoin to get above and you

start to develop a bit of a picture as

to how it could be a reasonable time to

anticipate maybe a pause or a correction

but not the end of a move and within

that price can go higher we can go to 77

78 80

81 as we looked at here with those price

ranges so it really all depends on what

type of Trader you are what goals are

you going for over this next few months

is this your period to continue

consolidating your portfolio uh are you

looking to get out because you think

it's over that is all going to be very

very individual which is probably why we

get such high emotions around whether

this Market's going to Fresh highs or

not people trying to catch the bottoms

and catch the tops that's another reason

why we focus a lot on the lows in the

market it's the hardest time for new

people to get in and even uh veterans

that have been around some time because

of the fear at the lows so moving

forward try to take a chunk of profits

out of the middle don't worry too much

about the exact Peaks or the exact

bottoms just somewhere around the lows

somewhere around whatever you think the

top might be or even a little bit of

profits along the way to the upside is

going to make you a very happy person

all right guys we got a lot to get

through over the coming weeks especially

if this price does push higher to focus

on what happens with these patterns

moving forward as we head towards those

price targets to the upside and the

downside that might invalidate any of

the the movements in the patterns so

make sure you hit subscribe I'll see you

back here at the next video Until then

take care and peace out