BITCOIN DAILY ANALYSIS - BITCOIN BTC PRICE PREDICTION - BITCOIN BTC 2024 - BITCOIN ANALYSIS

Summary

The video script discusses Bitcoin's remarkable performance, breaking its all-time high daily close, defying bearish sentiments. The narrator, 'Coins Kid,' explains his analysis, predicting Bitcoin's rise to $47K based on technical indicators like the golden cross and the breakout from a falling wedge pattern. He outlines the potential for a 'blow-off top' and a final fifth wave before a market reversal. The script emphasizes data-driven analysis, monitoring key levels and embracing both bullish and bearish stances. It invites viewers to subscribe, encourages engagement in the Discord community, and teases opportunities in altcoins following Bitcoin's lead.

Takeaways

• 😎 The creator believes Bitcoin has found its bottom and is in a long opportunity with beautiful entry points, going against the bearish sentiment of 'reply guys' and macro analysts.
• 🌊 He highlights that Bitcoin completed a 5-wave downtrend, followed by a close above the 20-week EMA in January 2023, which served as a buy signal with a target of $47K and eventually reaching the all-time high.
• ⚖️ While initially thinking the move was an ABC correction, he now believes it was a bullish trap, with altcoins like Chainlink potentially bottoming out and catching up to Bitcoin's rally.
• 🎯 The creator aims to flip bearish once he sees 5 complete waves up, with massive bearish divergence on the weekly chart, and overly euphoric bullish sentiment.
• 🌟 Bitcoin made history with its highest daily close ever, but the creator expects consolidation within a range before a potential breakout into price discovery.
• 💥 If Bitcoin breaks the all-time high before the halving, the creator believes it could be a blowoff top, indicating a shorter cycle than anticipated, derived from the larger cycle that began in 2018.
• 📈 The current move up is potentially the 3rd wave of a larger 5-wave impulsive sequence, with the most powerful 3rd wave of the 3rd wave (3 of 3) required to break the all-time high resistance.
• 🔍 The creator will rely on data like a break below the daily ribbon and 20-week EMA to potentially short Bitcoin and exit his position, regardless of narratives about higher price targets.
• 👥 He encourages viewers to join the Discord for micro trade updates and thanks supporters for sticking with the channel against the naysayers and moving goalpost narratives.
• 📚 The analysis is based on technical analysis principles like Elliott Wave Theory, support/resistance, moving averages, and wave patterns.

Q & A

What was the key technical event that indicated the bottom for Bitcoin in January 2023?

According to the video, the close of Bitcoin's price above the 20-week exponential moving average (20 WMA) in January 2023 was the key signal that indicated the market had bottomed out and a bullish breakout was underway.

What is the significance of the "three of three" wave pattern mentioned in the video?

The "three of three" wave pattern, also known as the "three of three" or "third of third" wave, is considered the most powerful wave in any trend direction, either up or down. Breaking out from a pattern during this wave increases the probability of a significant move in that direction.

How does the speaker plan to identify a potential market top for Bitcoin?

The speaker plans to identify a potential market top for Bitcoin by monitoring several factors, including the formation of five waves with bearish divergence on the weekly chart, an extended market, and extremely euphoric and overly bullish market sentiment.

What is the significance of the current move potentially being the "three of three" wave for Bitcoin?

If the current move in Bitcoin is indeed the "three of three" wave, it would be considered the most powerful wave within the larger uptrend, and a breakout during this wave would significantly increase the probability of a sustained move higher, potentially towards new all-time highs.

How does the speaker view the potential for Bitcoin to reach $1 million or higher?

The speaker indicates that regardless of narratives or claims about Bitcoin reaching $1 million or higher, they will rely on the data and charts to determine when to exit their position, potentially selling if certain technical conditions are met, such as a break below the daily ribbon and 20 WMA.

What is the significance of the daily close being the highest ever in Bitcoin's history?

The video mentions that Bitcoin's daily close on the day prior to the recording was the highest daily close ever in its history, which is a significant milestone and could potentially signal further upside momentum.

How does the speaker view the potential for a "blowoff top" scenario in Bitcoin?

The speaker suggests that if Bitcoin breaks its all-time high before the next halvening event, it could potentially indicate a "blowoff top" scenario, which would be a shorter market cycle than anticipated but still part of a larger cycle that began in 2018.

What does the speaker recommend regarding altcoins?

The speaker believes that there are opportunities in altcoins, as Bitcoin typically leads the market, and altcoins tend to follow. The speaker encourages viewers to participate in the Discord channel to access micro-trade updates on various altcoins.

How does the speaker view the role of sentiment and "reply guys" in the market?

The speaker dismisses the importance of sentiment and "reply guys" (critics or naysayers), stating that they no longer exist or matter, as the market has proven them wrong. The speaker focuses on analyzing the data and charts instead of being swayed by sentiment.

What does the speaker attribute Bitcoin's recent success to?

The speaker attributes Bitcoin's recent success and rally to going against the prevailing bearish sentiment, herd mentality, and naysayers, while relying on technical analysis and data points that suggested a bottom and bullish opportunity.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Bitcoin's Incredible Rally and the Naysayers

The video script starts by celebrating Bitcoin's remarkable performance and all-time high achievement, defying the naysayers and negative sentiment prevalent during the market's downturn. The host, Coins Kid, expresses confidence that this milestone signals a market bottom and long opportunities ahead. He references past analyses, indicators like the CBBI, and the completion of five waves as confirmation of the breakout, with a target of $47K initially set back in January 2023.

05:01

📈 Bitcoin's Potential Blow-Off Top and Market Cycles

The host discusses the possibility of Bitcoin's current surge being a blow-off top, representing the final fifth wave of a longer market cycle that began in 2018. He plans to exit his Bitcoin position if data indicates the formation of five waves and overly euphoric market sentiment, regardless of bullish narratives or price targets. The analysis involves monitoring indicators like the daily ribbon and 20 EMA for potential sell signals.

10:01

🎯 Looking Ahead and Gratitude

In the closing remarks, the host expresses gratitude to the audience for sticking with the channel throughout the journey. He encourages viewers to subscribe, like the video, and join the Discord for micro-trade updates. The host also mentions looking forward to sharing future updates and analyses, aiming to provide educational content based on data rather than hopium.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is the pioneering and most well-known cryptocurrency, which is the central focus of the video. The script discusses Bitcoin's price movements, market sentiment, technical analysis, and its potential to reach new all-time highs. For example, 'Bitcoin made history yesterday, it's doing incredibly well' and 'Bitcoin's been incredibly well, it's been an amazing trade.'

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis refers to the study of past price movements and patterns to predict future price trends. The video extensively uses technical analysis concepts like waves, resistance levels, moving averages, and chart patterns to analyze Bitcoin's price behavior. For instance, 'we're looking for the completion of five waves here with massive bearish divergence' and 'we got the Buy Signal and equally what we do have at at that point is a close over 20.'

💡Market Sentiment

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude or emotional state of market participants towards a particular asset. The video discusses how negative sentiment (bearish) during Bitcoin's downturn provided an opportunity to identify the bottom, while a shift to overly positive sentiment (euphoric) could signal a potential top. For example, 'against her mentality the sentiment the, reply guys you know the macro schro none, of them exist anymore' and 'we're looking for sentiment to be really really euphoric, and overly bullish.'

💡Altcoins

Altcoins, short for alternative coins, refer to cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The video suggests that altcoins often follow Bitcoin's price movements and that opportunities may arise in altcoins after Bitcoin has led the way. For example, 'I do think there's lots of opportunity in altcoins' and 'chain links come up off its bottom so it's basically round about here now isn't it chain link going St consolidating looking for this next Lego up to catch Bitcoin up.'

💡Elliott Wave Theory

Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis approach that identifies recurring wave patterns in price movements. The video extensively uses Elliott Wave terminology like 'five waves,' 'impulsive waves,' and 'corrective waves' to analyze Bitcoin's price action. For example, 'what I was looking for is five waves completion' and 'we've got a massive impulsive Wave 1 corrective wave two huge vertical wave three and a regular wave four.'

💡Support and Resistance

Support and resistance levels are key price points where the supply and demand for an asset are expected to pause or reverse the price trend. The video discusses breaking through resistance levels and finding support as crucial factors in determining Bitcoin's trend continuation or reversal. For example, 'we broke down below the EMAs back test of resistance and dropped' and 'if you find support we should go again.'

💡Bull Run

A bull run refers to a sustained period of rising prices in a financial market, often characterized by positive sentiment and optimism. The video suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a new bull run phase if it can confirm a breakout above its all-time high resistance level. For example, 'I think we're breaking out, the minimal Target is 47k and then we should tag the alltime high' and 'this would indicate to me this is a free of free so, with that you know like I've always said, to you there were five waves with in a trend.'

💡Moving Averages

Moving averages are technical indicators that smooth out price data by calculating the average price over a specific time period. The video mentions using moving averages, such as the 20-period exponential moving average (20 EMA), as signals for trend identification and confirmation. For example, 'one simple thing after the five waves the close above the 20 we Em Right There was your ghost signal' and 'we closed outside of this resistance within that third wave which confirmed the break of you know the falling wedge.'

💡Bearish Divergence

Bearish divergence is a technical analysis signal that occurs when an asset's price makes a new high while an oscillator or indicator fails to confirm the new high, potentially indicating waning momentum and a potential price reversal. The video mentions looking for 'massive bearish divergence' as a potential signal of a market top. For example, 'we're looking for the completion of five waves here with massive bearish divergence.'

💡Price Discovery

Price discovery refers to the process of determining the fair value of an asset through the interactions of buyers and sellers in the market. The video suggests that if Bitcoin breaks out above its all-time high resistance level, it will enter a phase of price discovery where it becomes challenging to pinpoint specific price targets. For example, 'it's in price Discovery at that point, really hard to pinpoint where we're going to go to but I will show you in time.'

Highlights

Bitcoin made history yesterday by achieving the highest daily close ever.

The sentiment and macro factors that previously doubted Bitcoin's rally no longer exist.

The speaker successfully predicted Bitcoin's breakout and rally to $47K and the all-time high back in January 2023, based on technical analysis and data from charts.

The speaker acknowledged getting the ABC correction wrong initially but now believes it was a bull trap.

Bitcoin appears to be front-running and altcoins like Chainlink are following, indicating potential opportunities in altcoins.

The speaker plans to flip bearish on Bitcoin once data and charts show signs of a potential top, such as euphoric sentiment and bearish divergence.

Bitcoin's break above the all-time high needs to be confirmed by the 'free of free' wave, which is the most powerful wave in any trend direction.

The current move could be the 'free of free' wave, similar to the one that confirmed the bull run in January 2023.

The speaker will respect the data and trend if Bitcoin takes out the all-time high, indicating a potential macro bull run with five waves up.

However, if Bitcoin breaks the all-time high before the halving, the speaker believes it could be a blow-off top and a shorter cycle than anticipated.

The speaker will exit Bitcoin positions based on data, such as a break below the daily ribbon and 20 WMA, regardless of narratives or price targets.

The speaker successfully called the top in April 2021 based on price action and data from charts, despite criticism from others.

The speaker is posting micro trades on various altcoins in the Discord channel for the 'Coins Kid Crew'.

The speaker thanks the audience for sticking with the channel and encourages subscribing, liking the video, and joining the Discord.

The speaker respects the trend and data, defying the naysayers and those who kept moving the goal posts.

Transcripts

hey everyone I hope you're well this is

coins kid just going to bitcoin big up

coins kit crew so Bitcoin made history

yesterday it's doing incredibly well

against her mentality the sentiment the

reply guys you know the macro schro none

of them exist anymore they're not here

anymore you know so again I can't wait

to see them again to be honest with you

because when they come again that'll

build even more confidence my analysis

that we have found the bottom and you

know we've got to be long opportunity in

front of us and some beautiful spot

entry points so they were you know part

of the Confluence that I was relaying to

you and I've shown you some of the

messages as well how horrible and you

know evil and nasty the were the way

down there in the seawave that this is

an opportunity because of the sentiment

in the market equally I've shown you you

know many metrics the cbbi for one

hitting that two level right there

little little sweet spot equally does

many other data points it's not

it's not hopium on this channel okay we

take a look at the Bitcoin video for

those who remember in the seawave here

in this massive mut to downside what I

was looking for is five waves completion

and then one simple thing after the five

waves the close above the 20 we Em Right

There was your ghost signal and we got

that in January 2023 and this is

something I relate to you at that point

I said to you I think we're breaking out

the minimal Target is 47k and then we

should tag the alltime high and you know

we've pretty much done that so bitcoin's

been incredibly well it's been an

amazing trade and at some point I will

flip bearish for those people that don't

remember or have not been around uh you

know they forget that I was calling in

January uh not January in April of 2021

I was calling this top here because of

the price action the data in the charts

basically got a rising Channel a rising

bearish wedge as you support broke down

back toest resistance CER alligator I

remember all the rep guys you know lots

of technical you know on YouTube saying

no way coins kid don't know what he's

talking about things like that and even

all the the sentiment in the videos

right there I should find a video and

show you is 64k to 28k bitcoin okay and

it was just data in the charts that was

telling me that so we broke down below

the EMAs back test of resistance and

dropped putting bids in down it and then

we wrote it all the way back up okay but

one thing I got wrong and I hold my

hands up I did think at this point this

was the ABC correction right now it's an

important move but I think I got that

wrong you know I think at this point we

got the a the B and this was an a

regular bwa High a bull trap for Bitcoin

and the Confluence is within other

charts xrp uh you know chain link vchain

all those coins at that point at the a

the be the lower height and dropped okay

into the you know the massive seawave

the ABC zigzag that's potentially Bott

on coins right now so you know Bitcoin

front running and what we're seeing

right now with some of them altcoins is

basically they're coming off the bottom

you know so last year I think in June in

summer right there a lot of them coins

bottom I think chain links come up off

its bottom so it's basically round about

here now isn't it chain link going St

consolidating looking for this next Lego

up to catch Bitcoin up and this is what

happens in this market you know Bitcoin

front runs and the altcoins follow so I

do think there's lots of opportunity in

altcoins and this is something I do

relay in that you know the videos every

day to you that if you are looking to

make money in this space then not

necessarily Bitcoin is it but I do show

you Bitcoin every day for the health of

the market so it can sort of determine

you know opportunities for example way

back down here we got the beautiful five

waves of death 1 2 3 4 5 I did make a

video on that opportunity and all I was

looking for to confirm that bottom was

in was one simple thing thing okay

really one simple thing and again this

is date and Automotion just here was the

close above a 20 at that point go back

to the videos in January it was on all

the thumnails Bitcoin is going to 47k in

the alltime high because it was a

technical Target that you was actually

leing from breaking out of a falling

Wedge Way Back in January okay for those

that remember so we've done incredibly

well but at some point I will flip

bearish because of the data in the

charts but I don't think now is the time

to do that until I see more data and

that really is just the same thing I'm

relaying to you at this point here you

know we're looking for the completion of

five way we're looking for completion of

five waves here with massive bearish

Divergence you know on the weekly being

really of extended we're looking for

sentiment to be really really euphoric

and overly bullish and you know all the

reply guys in the videoos saying no way

it's not going to come down and things

like that you know that's what I'm

looking for and I don't think it's here

yet okay I think it'll come and I think

you know we are on the cuser doing if we

take out this eye this will go vertical

it's in price Discovery at that point

really hard to pinpoint where we're

going to go to but I will show you in

time but you know I just want to show

you that you know yesterday Bitcoin coin

on this daily close just there look at

that that was the highest daily close

ever in Bitcoin history basically so

obviously we've had that close and a

little bit of pullback into support if

you find support we should go again so a

lot of people think that you know you

smash your alltime highs with ease

basically like a hot knife through but

in my opinion in my experience if we do

that I think that's a little bit

worrying to be honest with you what we

want to do is consolidate in a range and

this is something I talk about you know

consolid in a Range build up another

level support you know take all the

supply that people are selling you know

and then just smash through it and then

that's it we're in price Discovery and

at that point Bitcoin can go anywhere so

against the GBP the pound against the

Australian dollar against you know the

Euro bitcoin's making alltime Highs but

it's just lagging a little bit against

the USD so I can't quite make the pump

up video yet for the coins kick crew but

this has been an amazing journey against

all the sentiment the her mentality you

know the Haring being some kind of

catalyst for an alltime high and things

like that we are potentially on the cus

right now but like I said to you if we

do take out this alltime high before the

Haring which I think we will then you

know I think this is a blowoff top

basically and we've got a shorter cycle

Than People anticipate you know of a

ball Market but it's not actually

shorter cycle it's a longer cycle that

began way back in 2018 okay and from

that point we've had a massive impulsive

Wave 1 corrective wave two huge vertical

wave three and a regular wave four and

this is your blowoff top this is your

final fifth wave okay so at this point

this year if we come up in five waves I

will most definitely with the sentiment

with all the data that I relay to I will

be jumping out of Bitcoin regardless of

the narratives with regardless of people

saying you know 1 million 600k 700

whatever I will rely on the data as I

relied on the data down here to get the

hell out of Bitcoin okay uh you know so

I'll relay that message to you but you

know I wish everyone most luck we're

doing incredibly well I am posting

little micro trades on you know many

many alt coins Bitcoin there was one

that I posted on Sunday so definitely

get involved in the Discord right there

it's a lot easier for me to post the

content for the coins kid crew but I

just want to say thank you to each and

every single one of you who stuck with

the channel if you're not already

subscribed Please Subscribe if you're

not already you know smash the like

button please smash the like button on

the way out but this has been an amazing

journey for myself and the coins skate

crew against all the her mentality the

sentiment the naysayers the 702 guys you

know we smash through that resistance

and they just keep moving the goal post

Savvy kept moving the goal post up cppo

kept moving the goal post up you know

and now blockchain backer keeps moving

the goal post up so until we start see

more data we've just got to respect the

data here and respect the trend you know

so let's take a look at the Bitcoin

chart on The Daily time frame right now

to see what we can see okay so take a

look at Bitcoin on daily time frame I

think we are on the cusp of breaking the

high but you know one thing I'm looking

at right now that this particular wave

that we're in right now for Bitcoin is

actually the free of free and I've gone

through this with you on the micro on

the macro I've explained this so many

times that the free of free fre of free

basically is a core wave and it's the

most powerless wave in any Trend

Direction on the way down or on the way

up the fre of fre the core wave okay

remember that and you know I did show

you this analysis from this bottom as

well that this move here is basically

the fre of three it's very powerful okay

at this point as well if you go back to

you know January 2023 we've got the Buy

Signal and equally what we do have at at

that point is a close over 20 so it took

the three of three to do that and what I

mean by the three of three and I did

relay this to you way back when then as

well which increased the probability of

a massive move up here for Bitcoin was

really really simple within this move

from this bottom here we got the one the

two the three the four the five okay ABC

coming back down then from this point we

got a massive move up so this is a one

this is a two this is a three okay then

that point that was in a regular four

and that was your five okay so You' had

five waves up that was a beautiful

impulsive move sideways correction boom

see you later so within this move here

we did an awful lot and I did relay this

to you in the videos at that point we

took out so many resistance points we

actually made a bullish cross on a 10

and 20 EMA on the weekly time frame we

closed above a 20 we EMA and equally

within the three of three cuz look this

a one this a two this a three this is

the three of three inside here we closed

outside of this resistance within that

third wave which confirmed the break of

you know the falling wedge which is a

basically a bullish reversal pattern

look and a bump and B pattern as well

look at that broke out at this point in

the three of three so we confirmed the

ball run all the way back there in

January of 2020 23 which I relay to you

but obviously the bigger macro move

right now needs to be confirmed and the

break of the alltime high in my opinion

needs to be confirmed within a free a

free again just like this was broken out

and confirmed the ball run down there

this has to right now take out this

resistance point and if it does it's

actually the free of free so at that

point I would respect the data I would

respect the trend and I would be looking

for massive macro five waves up here we

don't see it just yet okay so let me go

through this with you if this was a one

this was a flat two this is the third

wave coming up and I did relay this to

you way back in the summer okay when

everyone was really bearish I said to

you we find an optimal entry point this

should be the third wave coming up so on

a daily time frame what we may have here

this could have been the first wave this

was a zigzag 2 this is your third wave

of the free this is your free of free

right now this is the vertical in the

charts just like this was confirming the

Bull Run getting above the 20 the the 10

EMA the 20 EMA Golden Cross right there

and equally taken out as a resistance

point this is your confirmation of a

maccro fre or fre no different to the

one that was way back there there in

January 2023 so I wish having most look

but we on the cusp of putting in a fre

of three and this is typically in my

experience what we see on the brakes of

these falling wedges you know your bump

and run pattern so on and so forth when

we come up and do this this is a fre or

three for example here you got your one

two three or three look at that as your

third wave within this little micro move

this is your one basically 2 3 4 5 ABC

this was the first wave and in the first

wave the fre of three broke out the

bumper and run pattern just there so the

free of three is really really powerful

in any reversal pattern or top Pan the

free of fre we always look for it it's

the very most you know the waterfall

basically so this could be a vertical

that's about to break out to the upside

because it's the free of free the power

needed to take out the all-time high and

confirm you know the bigger macro bomb

run here for Bitcoin so I understand upd

nothing that says financial device

everything is for education and purpose

only but we could be on the cost of an

all-time higher for Bitcoin and it would

be absolutely amazing and this would

indicate to me this is a free of free so

with that you know like I've always said

to you there were five waves with in a

trend so we've still got a lot of moves

left in this market for Bitcoin if we

see the break of the alltime high here

uh what I'm looking for in time in the

future is just really simple the data

break below the daily ribbon and equally

20we EMA uh for Bitcoin at that point

I'll encourage an Entertainer short and

selling my position in Bitcoin how you

understand the update stay healthy stay

strong stay tuned thank you support on a

daily basis take care everyone back to

another update on bitcoin bye-bye