Why Netanyahu Has Recovered in the Polls

Summary

The video discusses Benjamin Netanyahu's political resurgence in Israel despite initial unpopularity due to judicial reforms and the war in Gaza. It highlights Israel's shift to the right, with 65% of the public identifying as center-right or right-wing. Netanyahu's increased popularity is attributed to his positioning as more right-wing than opposition leader Benny Gantz, capitalizing on the public's support for military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. The video also speculates on Netanyahu's chances in the upcoming elections, suggesting that his prospects are tied to Israel's security situation.

Takeaways

• 📉 Netanyahu's initial unpopularity due to controversial judicial reforms and political chaos seemed to end his political career.
• 🔄 Despite early setbacks, Netanyahu has made a political comeback, with recent polls suggesting he is still favored by many Israelis.
• 🔄 Israel has shifted significantly to the right, with 65% of the public identifying as center-right or right-wing.
• 🏹 The majority of Israelis support the war in Gaza and the ongoing escalation in Lebanon, indicating a rightward shift in political views.
• 👥 Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity party, initially had a lead over Netanyahu but has since lost ground.
• 📈 Netanyahu's Likud party has regained the lead in the polls, overcoming a 20-point deficit from the previous year.
• 🚩 Netanyahu has positioned himself as more right-wing than Gantz, capitalizing on Israel's shift to the right.
• 💥 The escalation in Lebanon has helped Netanyahu outflank his main opponent, Benny Gantz.
• 🏆 Netanyahu's position looks secure, and he may make it to the next election due in October 2026.
• 🌍 If Netanyahu continues, it could lead to further diplomatic isolation for Israel, especially with a potential government under Naftali Bennett.

Q & A

What was the initial political situation for Netanyahu after October 7th?

After October 7th, Netanyahu's controversial judicial reforms and subsequent political chaos had made him deeply unpopular with much of the electorate, leading to the belief that his political career was over.

How did Netanyahu's reputation change due to Hamas's attack?

Hamas's attack undermined Netanyahu's reputation as the politician who could guarantee Israel's security, which was seen as potentially the final blow to his political career.

Why did Netanyahu's Likud party regain its lead in the polls nearly a year later?

Netanyahu's Likud party regained its lead in the polls due to Israel's shift to the right and the main opposition figures, especially Benny Gantz, failing to track this trend.

What is the current political stance of the majority of Israelis according to the script?

The majority of Israelis now consider themselves center-right or right-wing, with only a small percentage identifying as left or center-left.

How has the war in Gaza influenced the Israeli public's political views as per the script?

The war in Gaza has led to a significant rightward shift in Israeli politics, with the majority of Israelis supporting the war and the ongoing escalation in Lebanon.

What was the Pew Research polling result regarding Israel's military response in Gaza?

Pew Research polling found that 39% of Israelis thought Israel's military response in Gaza had been about right, 34% thought it hadn't gone far enough, and only 19% thought it had gone too far.

Why did Benny Gantz's appeal as a political figure wane over time?

Benny Gantz's appeal waned because he was seen as more centrist and not as willing to take the necessary steps to guarantee Israel's security, in contrast to Netanyahu who presented himself as more right-wing.

How has Netanyahu's approach to the conflict with Hezbollah affected his political standing?

Netanyahu's escalation against Hezbollah and the assassination of senior leaders have helped him outflank his main opponent, Benny Gantz, and increased his popularity among Israelis.

What is the potential impact of a Naftali Bennett government on Israel's political direction?

If Naftali Bennett were to win and form a government, it would likely see Israel move even further to the right, both in how it prosecutes the war and its attitudes towards settlers in the West Bank, potentially exacerbating Israel's diplomatic isolation.

What is the role of Gideon Saar in Netanyahu's current political strategy as mentioned in the script?

Gideon Saar is a former ally turned rival whom Netanyahu is considering bringing into the war cabinet, which could limit Benny Gantz's political leverage and secure Netanyahu's position.

What is the significance of the 'Brilliant' platform mentioned in the script?

Brilliant is an educational platform that offers interactive lessons in various subjects including math, data analysis, programming, and AI, which is used as an analogy to Netanyahu's continuous learning and adaptation in politics.

Outlines

00:00

🔄 Netanyahu's Political Resurgence

The video discusses the unexpected political recovery of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the turmoil caused by his judicial reforms and the attack by Hamas. Despite initial unpopularity, Netanyahu has managed to maintain his position and regain the lead in polls. The video highlights two main reasons for this resurgence: a general shift of Israeli politics to the right and the failure of the main opposition figures, particularly Benny Gantz, to align with this trend. The script also notes the historical trend of Israel moving rightward since the 1990s, with a more recent acceleration post-October 7th, driven by the focus on war rather than economic or religious issues. Polls suggest a significant majority of Israelis now identify as center-right or right-wing, and there is strong support for the war in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon. The video also touches on the public's perception of Netanyahu's decisions as self-interested but necessary for security, contrasting with Gantz's image as more centrist and sensitive to international pressure.

05:01

📈 Shifting Dynamics in Israeli Politics

This paragraph delves into the changing political landscape in Israel, with Netanyahu's Likud party regaining the lead in polls after a period of decline. The video attributes this to Netanyahu's ability to position himself as more right-wing than his main opponent, Benny Gantz, who is seen as more centrist and favoring the status quo. The escalation in Lebanon has bolstered Netanyahu's image as a strong leader willing to take decisive action for Israel's security, in contrast to Gantz's perceived insufficiency. The script also discusses the potential for Netanyahu to form a new war cabinet, possibly including Gideon Saar, which could diminish Gantz's political leverage. The video concludes by speculating on Netanyahu's chances in the upcoming elections, suggesting that his prospects are closely tied to Israel's security situation. It also mentions the possibility of Naftali Bennett emerging as a significant challenger, potentially pushing Israel further to the right and exacerbating diplomatic isolation.

Keywords

💡Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu is a central figure in the video, serving as Israel's Prime Minister and leader of the Likud party. The video discusses his political recovery after facing unpopularity due to judicial reforms and political chaos. Despite challenges, he remains a preferred PM among Israelis, illustrating his resilience and political acumen.

💡Judicial Reforms

These refer to the controversial changes proposed by Netanyahu's government to Israel's judicial system. The video mentions these reforms as a reason for Netanyahu's initial unpopularity, suggesting they caused political chaos and contributed to his plummeting approval ratings.

💡Hamas

Hamas is a Palestinian Islamist political and militant group mentioned in the context of an attack that undermined Netanyahu's reputation as a guarantor of Israel's security. The video implies that this event was a turning point in public perception of Netanyahu's leadership.

💡National Unity Party

Led by Benny Gantz, the National Unity Party is portrayed as the main opposition to Netanyahu's Likud party. The video discusses how this party initially gained significant support but later failed to maintain momentum, allowing Netanyahu to regain his lead in the polls.

💡Right-Wing

The video highlights a significant shift to the right in Israeli politics, with the majority of the public identifying as center-right or right-wing. This ideological movement is key to understanding Netanyahu's political recovery, as it aligns with his own political stance.

💡Gaza War

The ongoing conflict in Gaza is a central theme in the video, used to illustrate public support for Netanyahu's hardline stance on security. Polling data from the video shows that a majority of Israelis support the war efforts, which bolsters Netanyahu's image as a strong leader.

💡Lebanon Escalation

The video discusses the escalation of conflict with Lebanon as a strategic move by Netanyahu to maintain his image as a security-focused leader. This military action is portrayed as a way to distract from the Gaza situation and to outflank political opponents.

💡Polling

Polling data is used throughout the video to track Netanyahu's political recovery and the shifting preferences of the Israeli electorate. Polls are critical in understanding the video's narrative of Netanyahu's resurgence in popularity.

💡Benny Gantz

Benny Gantz is presented as Netanyahu's main political rival, initially gaining popularity as an anti-Netanyahu candidate. However, the video explains how Gantz's appeal waned as Netanyahu positioned himself as more right-wing and committed to Israel's security.

💡Two-State Solution

The video mentions the diminishing support for a two-state solution among Israelis, reflecting a broader rightward shift in Israeli politics. This context is important for understanding the changing political landscape and Netanyahu's policies.

💡Brilliant.org

Brilliant.org is mentioned as the sponsor of the video, promoting lifelong learning with interactive lessons in various fields. While not directly related to the main theme, it serves as a reminder of the video's sponsorship and the value of continuous education.

Highlights

Netanyahu's political recovery despite unpopular judicial reforms and political chaos.

Hamas's attack undermining Netanyahu's reputation for guaranteeing Israel's security.

Polls suggesting Netanyahu remains the preferred PM among Israelis.

Israel's political shift to the right and its impact on Netanyahu's popularity.

65% of Israelis now identify as center-right or right-wing.

Israel's rightward shift accelerating since October 7th, focusing on war issues.

Polling shows majority support for Israel's military response in Gaza.

Benny Gantz's appeal as the main opposition figure waning due to Netanyahu's right-wing positioning.

Netanyahu's portrayal as more right-wing than Gantz helps him regain lead in polls.

Gantz's image as a Centrist and his stance on maintaining the status quo.

Netanyahu's escalation in Lebanon and its effect on his political standing.

Polls show two-thirds of Israelis support escalation against Hezbollah.

Assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders boosting Netanyahu's popularity.

Netanyahu's failure in Gaza and how it's overshadowed by events in Lebanon.

Netanyahu's secure position with a potential alternative to his defense minister.

Gantz's criticism of Netanyahu and its limited political leverage.

Netanyahu likely to make it to the next election due in October 2026.

Naftali Bennett emerging as a potential challenger if he returns to mainstream politics.

A Bennett government预示着Israel moving further to the right.

Transcripts

this video is brought to you by

brilliant in the immediate aftermath of

October the 7th the only certainty in

Israeli politics was that Netanyahu was

done his controversial judicial reforms

and the subsequent political chaos had

already made him deeply unpopular with

much of the electorate but hamas's

attack fatally undermined netanyahu's

reputation as the one politician that

could guarantee Israel its security and

it looked like the final nail in the

coffin nearly a year later however ever

and not only is Netanyahu still in post

but the most recent polls suggest he

still many Israelis preferred pm and is

lukud party which were 20 points behind

Benny gans's National Unity party last

October have now regained their lead in

the polls so in this video we're going

to take a look at netanyahu's

astonishing political recovery and

whether he could actually win another

[Music]

election before we start if you haven't

already please consider subscribing and

ringing the bell to stay in the loop and

be notified when we release new videos

so let's get straight into it and

explain why Netanyahu has surged in the

polls the two main reasons are that one

Israel as a whole has shifted to the

right and two the main opposition

figures especially Benny Gant have

failed to track this trend let's start

with Israel's Tac to the right sometimes

English-speaking media frames the war in

Gaza as netanyahu's war with the

implicit suggestion that Netanyahu is

continuing the war against the will of

the Israeli public for reasons of

political self-preservation while there

might be some truth to this polling

suggests majority of Israelis do indeed

think that netanyahu's decision making

is mostly driven by self-interest Israel

as a whole has tacked massively to the

right and Israelis generally support

both the war in Gaza and the ongoing

escalation in Lebanon polling suggests

that 65% of the Israeli public now

consider themselves either center right

or right wing while only 12% identify as

left or Center left with most of the

remaining 20% or so identifying as

centrists now we should say this is just

the latest expression of a long running

historical Trend Israel has been moving

to the right since at least the '90s

both because Israelis are more

right-wing on economic issues or more

capitalist than they used to be and

because Jewish israelies have become

increasingly disillusioned at the

prospect of a two-state solution which

was the left's main iCal project in the

'90s and 2000s nonetheless this

rightwood shift has accelerated markedly

since October the 7th as the focus of

political debate in Israel has shifted

away from questions of the economy or

religious identity towards the war an

issue where most Israelis are pretty

rightwing Pew research polling from May

found that 39% of Israelis thought that

Israel's military response in Gaza had

been about right and 34% thought it

hadn't gone far enough while just 19 %

thought it had gone too far this polling

includes Israeli Arabs and when you just

look at Israeli Jews support for the war

is even more overwhelming only 4% think

the military response has gone too far

compared to 74% of Israeli Arabs

similarly 50% of Israeli Jews think that

Israel should essentially occupy Gaza

after the war and just 19% see peaceful

coexistence with an independent

Palestinian State as possible in other

words only 19% still support a two-state

solution while this rightward shift

could have in theory benefited Netanyahu

given he's on the right of Israeli

politics most people still thought it

would be the end of him his approval

rating plummeted and polls showed that

most Israelis wanted Benny Gant leader

of the main opposition party National

Unity to replace him as prime minister

polling from late 2023 for instance

found that in a head-to-head contest 45%

of Israelis would choose gants while

just 27 % would pick Netanyahu and that

57% of Israelis wanted early elections

now gans's main political Advantage was

simply that he wasn't Netanyahu there

weren't actually that many specific

policy differences between the two of

them after all they basically agreed on

everything during gans's time in

netanyahu's three-man war cabinet

although gance was notably Keener on

Biden's peace plan which is why he left

the cabinet in June nonetheless in the

past few months gans's appeal has waned

National Unity are lagging behind lud in

the polls and in May Netanyahu regained

his lead over Gant as israeli's

preferred candidate for prime minister

this is essentially because Netanyahu

has been able to present himself as more

right-wing than Gant for contest

gansters had more Centrist Vibes as

someone who's more in favor of

maintaining the status quo and

protecting Israeli institutions he's a

former IDF General who spent most of the

past few years calling for stability

during the chol of netanyahu's judicial

reform efforts and he's always been more

popular with Israelis who identify as

left or Center originally this allowed

him to present himself as an anti-

Netanyahu Unity candidate however by

constantly escalating and explicitly

dismissing Biden's peace plan Netanyahu

has been able to present himself as the

only politician willing to do what it

takes to guarantee Israel's security at

least in the eyes of the Israeli rights

while implicitly presenting Gant as

insufficiently porish and overly

sensitive to International pressure

netanyahu's escalation in Lebanon

continues in this vein Israel has

evacuated some 70,000 Israelis from the

north since the start of the war a

situation that most Jewish Israelis

consider untenable accordingly polling

suggests that something like 2third of

Israelis support escalation against

Hezbollah and lud experienced a sharp

uptick in the polls after the

assassination of senior Hezbollah and

Hamas leaders in Late July which is

sustained as Netanyahu has continued to

escalate in the north this has also

conveniently distracted voters from Gaza

where Netanyahu has essentially failed

to live up to his promises of total

Victory and the destruction of Hamas so

you get the idea helped by the recent

escalation in Lebanon Netanyahu has

successfully outflanked his main

opponent in Benny Gant and other

opposition politicians have been unable

to land a glove so what happens next

well netanyahu's position looks

remarkably secure not only is he more

popular than the opposition but he's

also found a potential alternative to

his unruly defense minister yuav Galant

in Gideon SAR a former Ally turned rival

that Netanyahu is apparently considering

bringing in to the war cabinet Gant has

spent much of the past few months

criticizing Netanyahu for failing to

come up with a long-term plan but the

prospect of being replaced by SAR will

now limit gant's political leverage this

means that Netanyahu will probably make

it to the next election due in October

201 26 his electoral prospects will

probably depend entirely on Israel's

security situation but if Netanyahu

hasn't finished the job polls now

suggest his most threatening Challenger

would be former prime minister naftali

Bennett a religious nationalist closely

associated with the settler movement

Bennett isn't currently involved in

mainstream politics but Paul suggests a

40% plurality of Israelis want him as

prime minister if he were to win a

Bennett government would see Israel move

even further to the right both on how it

prosecutes the war and its attitudes to

settlers in the West Bank likely

exacerbating Israel's diplomatic

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