Can Labour save UK economy with Rachel Reeves 'no austerity' plan?

Summary

In this analysis of Rachel Reeves' speech at the Labour Party Conference, experts discuss her efforts to uplift public spirits amid a challenging economic landscape. Although she provided little new policy, Reeves emphasized investment and the need for growth. The discussion touches on austerity, public investment challenges, and the Labour Party's strategy to appear fiscally responsible while appealing to both business leaders and workers. The panel also speculates on possible changes in fiscal rules ahead of the upcoming budget and the political implications for Labour's leadership.

Takeaways

• 🤖 Rachel Reeves' speech was criticized for lacking new policies, with some saying it could have been written by AI.
• 🛠️ Reeves emphasized a tough but necessary economic recovery, suggesting a more optimistic future despite the current challenges.
• 🩺 A key moment during the speech was the announcement that nurses rejected a 5.5% pay offer, highlighting ongoing public pay disputes.
• 💼 Business leaders remain concerned, noting that while individual policies might be sound, together they create uncertainty for entrepreneurs and investors.
• 💰 Reeves hinted at possible changes to fiscal rules, potentially allowing more borrowing for investments by redefining how national debt is measured.
• 🏗️ Despite promises for change, public sector cuts remain a reality, with reports of an £18 billion shortfall, challenging promises of growth and improvements.
• 📊 Achieving the biggest growth in the G7, as Reeves aims, is seen as overly ambitious given the UK's current economic struggles and productivity crisis.
• 🚦 Business leaders are wary of government messaging and still await more clarity on taxation policies, including capital gains tax and workers' rights.
• 🔄 Reeves seeks to change the narrative around austerity, arguing that the current cuts don’t amount to the 'capital-A' austerity of the past.
• 🔧 Labor faces challenges in balancing public investment and private sector growth, trying to satisfy both workers and business interests ahead of the budget.

Q & A

What was the main objective of Rachel Reeves' speech at the Labour Party Conference?

Rachel Reeves aimed to lift spirits and provide a vision of optimism, emphasizing that while times may be tough, the pain will be worth it in the end. However, she did not introduce any crisp new policies.

Why was the audience's reaction to Reeves' speech mixed in terms of content?

The reaction was mixed because, while Reeves offered a vision of hope, there were no significant new policy announcements, which left some feeling that the speech was predictable and lacking in fresh ideas.

How did businesses react to the speech, according to the economics editor Helia Ebrahimi?

Business leaders had mixed reactions. While some appreciated the overall policy framework, they were concerned that the combined policies might make Britain feel unwelcoming to wealth creators and investors.

What was the key message that Rachel Reeves wanted to convey about austerity in her speech?

Reeves wanted to make it clear that Labour is not returning to austerity. However, critics argue that despite her claims, the planned cuts, such as cancelling hospital building programs and rail schemes, make it resemble austerity.

What economic challenges does the Labour Party face in the coming budget?

Labour faces an £18 billion funding gap just to maintain current levels of public spending. They are looking into reclassifying debt and potentially borrowing more to address these shortfalls.

What is the debate around changing fiscal rules, and how might this impact Labour's policies?

Labour is considering adjusting fiscal rules to include the net worth of investments, which would allow more borrowing for public investments. This shift could provide additional funds, but it remains controversial as it could be seen as increasing debt.

What concerns were raised about Labour's growth target of leading the G7 in economic growth?

The target is seen as ambitious, bordering on unrealistic, because the UK would need significant improvements to match the growth rates of larger economies like the US, which is growing faster.

How do Labour's planned policies for worker rights and investment impact its relationship with the business sector?

Labour's focus on workers' rights and wealth taxation has caused concern among business leaders. While Labour aims to protect workers, businesses are worried about the potential financial impact of policies such as changes to capital gains tax.

How did the nurses' union respond to Reeves' speech, and what does this indicate about public sector pay disputes?

During Reeves' speech, nurses rejected a 5.5% pay offer, signaling ongoing dissatisfaction with public sector pay. This indicates that resolving these pay disputes remains a major challenge for the government.

What are Labour’s plans regarding investments in infrastructure, such as hospitals and rail projects?

Labour has already signaled potential cuts to major infrastructure projects, including hospital building programs and rail schemes, which has led to criticism and concerns about whether these cuts align with their promises to boost public investment.

Outlines

00:00

💬 Rachel Reeves' Speech Lacks Bold New Policies

The speaker discusses how Rachel Reeves’ recent speech at the Labour Party Conference lacked new and innovative policies. It was full of predictable rhetoric, potentially even written by AI, and heavily leaned into familiar talking points. She aimed to portray herself as a strong fiscal leader, but failed to introduce anything groundbreaking. The speech coincided with nurses rejecting a 5.5% pay offer, showing that the public sector pay disputes remain unresolved, a critical issue for the government.

05:01

🏗️ Investment and Austerity Challenges

Reeves addressed concerns about public investment, acknowledging the need for change in Britain’s infrastructure and public services. However, the discussion highlights that Labour may face significant cuts—up to £18 billion, raising concerns that Labour's policies might feel like austerity, despite Reeves' rejection of that term. Labour has argued that the cuts will target areas without proper funding, like hospital building projects, but it’s unclear how this will align with public expectations of change and improvement.

10:01

📊 Labour’s Economic Dilemmas and Ambitions

The conversation shifts to Labour’s lofty ambition of leading growth in the G7. However, achieving this goal seems almost unrealistic, given the UK's current economic condition. Experts believe that even with Labour’s proposed changes, the country would only reach half of the growth level seen in the US. The challenges of austerity loom large, with the reality that people are unlikely to feel the benefits unless significant improvements are made in public services, health, and infrastructure.

15:01

💼 Balancing Workers’ Rights with Business Concerns

Labour is trying to appeal to both workers and businesses, but tensions remain. While Reeves highlighted workers’ rights, such as minimum wage increases, businesses are wary of Labour’s stance on wealth taxation and capital gains tax. Business leaders expressed skepticism about the upcoming investment summit before the budget, indicating a lack of confidence in Labour's ability to balance these competing interests effectively.

20:02

📅 Pre-Budget Concerns and Business Expectations

As Labour prepares for the budget, there’s speculation around potential changes to capital gains tax that might differentiate between earned and unearned income, a move that could protect entrepreneurs. Business leaders are hopeful but uncertain, waiting to see if Labour’s approach will soften towards long-term investments. The upcoming budget will determine if these changes represent genuine reform or merely wishful thinking.

Keywords

💡Austerity

Austerity refers to economic policies that aim to reduce government deficits by cutting public spending. In the video, Rachel Reeves' speech discusses the perception of austerity in the context of the Labour Party’s budget proposals. Although Reeves denies a return to austerity, the speaker notes that many of her plans, such as cutting certain programs, might feel like austerity to the public.

💡Public Pay Disputes

Public pay disputes involve disagreements between public sector workers (e.g., nurses) and the government regarding wages. The video mentions a recent vote by nurses rejecting a 5.5% pay increase, which highlights the ongoing struggles between the government and public sector employees over fair compensation.

💡Fiscal Rules

Fiscal rules are guidelines or limits set by governments to maintain control over public finances, particularly in relation to borrowing and spending. In the video, there is a discussion about whether Labour might change these rules to allow more borrowing for public investment, which is framed as a shift from the traditional approach of focusing solely on costs.

💡Capital Gains Tax

Capital gains tax is a tax on the profit made from selling assets, such as stocks or real estate. The video explores the possibility that Labour might alter the capital gains tax structure, potentially differentiating between earned and unearned income to encourage long-term investment and protect entrepreneurs.

💡Investment

Investment refers to spending on resources that are expected to generate future benefits, such as infrastructure or education. In the video, Rachel Reeves emphasizes the importance of public investment in transforming the UK economy, particularly in areas like hospitals and rail infrastructure, despite the current budget constraints.

💡Public Services

Public services include essential services provided by the government, such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The video mentions that many of the Labour Party’s promises, such as improving public services and investing in infrastructure, are central to their vision for economic growth, but face challenges due to budget limitations.

💡Business Leaders' Reaction

Business leaders' reaction refers to how the business community responds to government policies. In the video, it is noted that some business leaders are concerned about Labour's economic plans, particularly policies related to taxation and workers' rights, which they fear could discourage investment and economic growth.

💡Growth in G7

The G7 is a group of seven of the world's largest advanced economies. Rachel Reeves sets an ambitious target of making the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7. The video critiques this goal as potentially unrealistic, given the UK’s current economic struggles, including low productivity and public sector issues.

💡Black Hole in Budget

A 'black hole' in the budget refers to a large, unaccounted-for deficit in government finances. In the video, Labour’s challenge in addressing a £22 billion black hole is highlighted, particularly in light of the need to settle public pay disputes and make investments in public services, which complicates their economic strategy.

💡Labour Iron Chancellor

The term 'Labour Iron Chancellor' refers to Rachel Reeves’ desire to project a strong, fiscally responsible image, similar to past chancellors who were known for their strict control of public finances. The video discusses how Reeves has embraced this image to gain credibility, although it may alienate parts of Labour’s base that oppose austerity-like measures.

Highlights

Rachel Reeves' first conference speech as the UK's first female Chancellor emphasized austerity while projecting a cautious optimism.

The speech lacked any 'crisp new policy' and instead relied on familiar political themes and cliches.

The government's messaging has been criticized for being overly pessimistic, which some believe negatively impacts business sentiment.

Business leaders expressed concerns that despite policies like capital investment and workers' rights bills, the overall tone discourages wealth creation and investment.

Despite a focus on investment, Rachel Reeves' plans may still feel like austerity to the public, especially with cuts to key areas like hospital building and rail projects.

Reeves hinted at rethinking the Treasury’s fiscal rules, suggesting the need to consider the benefits of investments, not just the costs.

This potential rule change could allow the UK to borrow more to invest in infrastructure and growth, despite concerns about increased debt.

Business leaders were left concerned that proposed changes might deter investment, especially around issues like capital gains tax and wealth taxation.

Despite no immediate industrial action, nurses rejected a 5.5% pay offer as insufficient, signaling ongoing discontent in public pay disputes.

Rachel Reeves positioned herself as a tough fiscal leader, adopting an 'Iron Chancellor' image while avoiding the term 'austerity' despite enacting cuts.

Labor's economic plans aim for high growth, with a target to outperform other G7 countries, but critics argue it is an unrealistic goal.

There’s skepticism over whether the UK can achieve substantial economic growth, given the challenges facing public services like rail and healthcare.

Labor is attempting to balance its messaging between appealing to workers with promises of wage increases and rights protections, while also trying to attract business investment.

Reeves' potential modification of fiscal rules could help address the estimated £18 billion funding gap but raises concerns about borrowing more.

The upcoming budget will reveal if Reeves’ proposed fiscal changes can stimulate growth or if they will fall short of expectations from businesses and voters.

Transcripts

she didn't give us crisp new policy it's

everything that you probably could have

written or AI could have written for her

uh I don't know whether the AI does

quite as many cliches she bought into

that austerity image actually because

she wanted to be a labor Iron Chancellor

AB during her speech we got the vote

through from the nurses rejecting a 5

and 1 half% yeah P off they didn't quite

stand up on a chair like the

demonstrator but they did the nearest

equivalent by by tweeting as she spoke

about pay I think um what does that mean

because settling these public pay

disputes has been so

important hello and welcome to the

political forecast again here at Labour

Party Conference in Liverpool now Rachel

Reeves has just delivered her first

conference speech as the UK's first

female Chancellor there were Stern and

Define words but a hint of optimism

after weeks of Doom Laden pronouncement

through all of that gloom and doom and

Cloud it's just a little bit of sunshine

breaking through but was it enough was

there anything new and are we any

clearer about how exactly labor plans to

transform the economy and what's going

to happen in the budget in just over A

month's time with me to pick this all

apart we have our economics editor Helia

ibraimi who's been getting reaction from

Business Leaders and for the inside

track on the politics of it all AR

gliser Gary Gib but Gary what did Rachel

Reeves have to do today to lift

everyone's Spirits yeah she had to say

what the end mission was for what the

pain was all leading you towards and as

you say she didn't give us crisp new

policy on any of that uh it's everything

that you probably could have written or

AI could could have written for her uh I

don't know whether AI does quite so many

cliches but uh it it it's what it's what

she she did what she needed to do she

tried to uh say there's there's a she

didn't use this uh uh particular clean

TR there's a city on a hill at the end

of all of this things will be better

it'll be worth all the pain and that's

the bit which uh everybody just about

that you talk to feels has been missing

from the government message and is that

because they they thought they had

overdone the do and glue yeah um they

they they wrongly calibrated lost touch

with what they were what the impact of

of their messaging and they blame it a

bit on the fact that the riots inter

uped the sequencing that they had

planned the Rachel Reeves announcement

on the black hole would be followed by K

starma doing a speech but we saw K

speechful version of it a bit later in

the year that didn't exactly cheer

anyone up if anything it sort of send

people closer to the edge of the bridge

when you talk to some of the Business

Leaders they were saying you know

message received you know we this is way

way too much you get all of this before

normal budget and clearly they want to

lay a lot of the blame on the Tories for

the economic inheritance

but at some point you get to think that

actually the the product they're selling

GB is not going to sell so when you say

message received you mean they have been

telling the government this is what they

say they say enough you know you've got

to change the tone this isn't working

anymore certainly this morning before

the speech they were very happy they

said the government's understood message

has been what effect did business

thinking was having I mean do they

really think that the government

sounding gloomy has a material effect on

the

economy the government sounding gloomy

is all about managing different

departments right we've got no money to

spend and also if things are Bleak then

it's not our fault and by the way if

there's any good news in the budget then

that is all of our fault then they're

building up to a budget where they want

to please people I think from a investor

perspective and for a business

perspective they said to me today at

least that each of the policies because

we have had a lot of policies about

capital and about wealth and you know

how are they going to raise money uh the

workers rights bill each of these

policies on their own is defensible but

when you put it all together then it

makes Britain feel like it's not

inviting wealth creators entrepreneurs

investment companies and other than

sounding a little less gloomy what do

they want us to actually remember from

her speech in terms of announcement for

things she said well as I say there

weren't fresh announcements but she

wants to remind you of where Labor's

taking you uh if you're concerned about

zero hour contracts uh if you're

concerned about investment in the Public

Services she's kind of saying this stuff

this stuff will happen uh and and there

will be uh things that people voting

labor will promise that will that will

happen they're just trying to remind

people that they haven't taken their

half the ball because if you've had

whatever it is um quite a few weeks now

of just hearing ministers talk about

black holes do that I'm not great on

this particular area of astrophysics but

I think you come out of black hole it's

not a terribly cheery Prospect and

everything is a bit strange on the way

in as well yeah but she was really

talking up in vestment because she's

been accused of of of of not delivering

enough public investment and she's

talking that thing people w't change

because they think Britain's not working

the roads don't work the hospitals don't

work so then part of the the labor

election Victory is about bringing in

that positive change but at the moment

the problem is that when you look at the

numbers there is going to be a

significant amount of cutting not just

in day-to-day spending but also the ifs

the think tank have calculated that

there's expected to be18 billion pounds

of cutting a labor have already talked

about cancelling the hospital buildings

uh program building 40 new hospitals

rail schemes the supercomputer I mean

it's endless and we had a we had a

little challenge to her team afterwards

about this asking well you she says this

isn't a return to austerity which to

answer your earlier question is one of

the key things she wanted people to come

away uh from the speech with but she's

kind of choosing her own definition of

austerity because quite a lot of people

looking at the state of the public realm

and the fact that they're looking for

in-year cuts would say actually to me

that is austerity you got a lowercase a

on it rather than the capital her team's

argument is well no what we're cutting

are things that there was never money

any money attached to so those hospitals

for instance um quite not properly

costed not properly put into the uh

tables uh with backed up fernance so

that's their argument on the on the

other side but it it might look feel and

smell like austerity I just want to come

back to austerity in a moment but on on

investments yeah what this means is that

they need to find billions and B about

18 billion at least just to stand still

yeah and in the budget and where is it

going to come from so either have to

change their fiscal rules and there's a

fair bit of announcement about some of

the language used in the speech is it

new what does it indicate in it she says

and Conference it is time that the

treasury moved on from just counting the

cough of investments in our economy to

recognizing the benefits too and why is

that important there's been a big debate

about the fiscal rules these are rules

designed to kind of limit and control

governments about how much they spend

and borrow there's been lots of

discussion about whether they're going

to change the definition of debt which

would allow them to borrow more money or

whether they're going to do something

much more radical which is like if I had

a house and I took out a mortgage on

that balance sheet I would both have on

how much I'm boring but also the value

of my house what the house is worth what

the house is worth so there is an

argument that you're going to describe

the net worth of the country which would

allow you to borrow more to invest

because that's what gives you growth but

can can she do that and be and be

consistent with everything she said in

the past she look like she's bending her

own rules yeah I mean I you know whether

she was looking at changing the fiscal

rules and she constantly implies that

she isn't she absolutely right but that

phrase that EDD has picked out she used

in a couple of the interviews uh is no

it's absolutely no accident it's there

there AR to something they say oh we're

just talking about how the treasury

culture needs to change and there's

always been a Critic M of that but you

that that would be meaningless if that

if that sentence is in there it's in

there for a reason and I suspect as as

hel suspects that they they're moving

towards something uh that redefines uh

rules which we thought were ridden in

stone and that would be very interesting

and that could be part of that mix which

answers your question about the the 18

billion and where it where it comes from

that could help us substantially so if

she does rewrite the rules a little bit

what what does that enable us to do is

it you can borrow more much more you

know it depends how much she changes the

rule so and simply by recategorizing

debt for example you could deliver

yourself an extra6 billion P but Chris I

think it's important to remember that

this isn't 16 billion that's going to

fall out of the sky it's still6 billion

that you will have to borrow more you

will have the ability the Headroom to

borrow more so people on the right of

the debate will point to that and say

you know this is just completely uh

irresponsible government you know our

rules are too LAX and you're just

borrowing this money I think the

critical question is how do you deliver

that kind of change and that kind of

growth in Britain when the railways aren

working when the Health Service isn't

working because her ambition she claims

is to get the biggest growth in the

g70 which is I mean is that an absurd

ambition given that means more than

America I me it's slightly Bonkers

because you've got it means going toet

to Toe with the US so in terms of say uh

GDP per cpit uh us is growing at 1 and a

half% we're growing at 1% and resolution

Foundation recently did some research

and they said if you add in all of the

changes that the labor are talking about

planning and then wealth exal JB energy

everything you you put it all in the pot

you only get half way towards the US I

mean we're talking about a very

substantial increase in wealth per

person but of course that's what we need

because the reality is that the UK isn't

doing very well and and that is to come

back to this question of austerity about

how we

feel better you know there's a you know

there's a possibility that you're

technically in in austerity but but we

all feel like we're yes and and and yeah

and then whether you hit your target of

fast disgrace in the G7 what a

technocratic slogan to come up with what

do we want fastest go when do we want it

now it it will have no impact unless

people feel they're getting their hip

sorted or whatever it is um that their

interaction with the public sector uh

has has improved in some way and labor

know that uh they they know that's the

real real dial they've got to watch

listen Parliament is quite tricky cuz

we're in we're we're in this period now

when inflation has eased and people's

pay is going up and so there is a sense

that people do feel a bit bit better off

but that's not going to lost and that's

the problem Rachel Reeves faces that's

the problem the labor party faces how do

you deliver this bigger pie in the next

two three years how do people feel she's

getting the politics right or wrong on

austerity you know when she when she's

still where she says no austerity but

the whole Hall knows the current plans

do mean austerity for you know if you

work in the criminal justice system if

you're a prison officer if you're a

polican if you know all those sorts of

things also I've never experienced media

training but I've told one of the first

things they tell you to do is not to buy

into the premise of the accusation so

even using the word austerity again and

again uh maybe aimed a great look I mean

in the hall it's just pure pure Euphoria

and people pop popping up and down like

yo-yos but the moment you come away from

the hall that's the thing everybody is

talking about it it will look and feel

and smell like austerity and you can't

be sure that you ever get to these

Fantastical rates of growth that we

haven't known for quite a long time so

which which bring the revenues which

allow you to rebuild the public sector

so it's just it's incredibly tough to

deliver on what they're saying they're

going to deliver on and in the meanwhile

images may have been formed about this

government that relate to the early

phase which she says will be tough but

they're talking to so many different

people you know to she bought into that

austerity image actually because she

wanted to be a labor Iron Chancellor she

didn't want to be part of the kind

ofate you can trust me I am going to be

have an iron grimp on the public

finances so I think they've probably

lent into that a lot I think the trouble

is that their base don't like it very

much you know if if you are if you are

leaning in to what what even The

Architects of austerity you know George

Osborne and his advisor say was a bit

too much March then it starts to and

everyone's got their own definition aity

even even during her speech we got the

vote through from the nurses rejecting a

5 a half% yeah pay off they didn't quite

stand up on a chair like the

demonstrator but they did the nearest

equivalent by quite tweeting as she

spoke about pay I think um well what

does that mean because settling these

public pay disputes has been so

important this doesn't automatically

lead to Industrial action as I

understand it it it it's it's a signal

they wanted to send at that particular

moment that they don't feel there

they've had anything like enough uh that

their demands

continue It's Tricky for them right

because you know the 22 billion pound

black hole they was talking about 9

billion of it was because they agreed

higher pay deals now you could argue

that that had to be done and hadn't been

addressed by the Tory government but

that's one of their wins we we've come

in and we've dealt with the situation

we're going to get Britain running you

want some of the for Britain to grow

there's no obvious reason Britain is

going to grow when it has a productivity

crisis so they're really hoping for a

peacetime dividend I.E we run things

better we're more organized we're going

to run hospitals better therefore the

delivery will be better for patients

we're going to run planning better

therefore you might get a house and

we're going to run the public sector

better we're going to pay people make

sure it's Equitable and therefore you'll

get the services that you the voter

expect I think it starts to be difficult

if that win is is is quite the win they

hope for Rachel re speech she got a

great standing evation for talking about

making work pay and the minimum wage and

becoming a living wage

um you know You' talked about the

business reception how are the workers

uh listen it's back to that point of who

is she talking to they're trying to talk

to both the workers and to the

businesses you talked about investment

well if the public purse can't afford to

make all of these Investments you're

relying on the private sector to do a

lot of the heavy lifting for example

when it comes to housing or building

roads the problem they have is that from

the private sector's perspective all of

this talk about workers rights well

they're not very happy about that you

know all this talk about wealth taxation

or changes in capital gains tax they're

not very happy about that so it's I

think they're trying to straddle at the

same time as talking to their base about

things that they're interested in public

sector pay making sure workers rights

are protected they're trying to attract

businesses but one business leader I

spoke to said why is that the in a

couple of weeks time before the budget

there's going to be an investment Summit

like why the hell is there going to be

an investment Summit before the budget

we want to know defin itively that

you're not going to leg us over when it

comes to things like capital gains TS

and and do you think today Gary has set

K starmer up a little bit better for

tomorrow yeah you know is the donor

route blowing itself out or is it still

I that there seems to be no shortage of

additional stories uh no shortage of an

appetite for freebies on certain

people's part um I'm not sure that all

the maybe bigger question about Labor's

ability to this government's to grip uh

messaging uh and grip government I'm not

sure those have gone away because I

think that some of them come down to

Personnel deep differences the sort of

differences that you're willing

to tell journalists about Even If it

threatens your entire Lively but that

that that's quite that's quite driven I

mean Gary when you talk about sort of

the message you know in the past we've

talked about the sort of the the big

giant v doctors of Labor messaging

whether it's p mandon or Al the C who is

driving the labor message right now so

the positioning where labor is extremely

concerned about for instance looking

responsible and all the things that sort

of floating voters don't trust trust

them with their money things like that

that a huge amount of that in recent

times has been driven by m Morgan Morgan

mcweeny um who effectively shaped the

entire labor campaign who's a prote of

uh Peter mandelson but you have not got

people at the very top of this

government at the moment or say the

statue of Peter mandon who was years and

years in opposition molding the message

alist Campbell became uh some people say

like the other side of the coin of of

Tony Blair b b I think the other thing

is in gar starma and Rachel Reeves you

don't have people who are politicians

their absolute fingertips Gordon Brown

and Tony Blair um were they were also

kind of creative political Geniuses uh

at their best I think even their

detractors would say and you maybe don't

have that either so it's what it's the

material that the Spinners are dealing

with as well as maybe some of the

spinning and finally Helia I mean are we

any better placed after Rachel Reeves's

speech today to think about the

budget well I think the the focus that

that line that I told you when it comes

to treasury's approach to investment and

worth is interesting it gives you a

direction of travel it suggests that uh

Rachel reees might be wanting to soften

up to give herself a bit more you know

room when it comes to the budget the

other thing I picked up uh a bit earlier

today was you know maybe this is hopeful

thinking on the side of Business Leaders

but there's a suggestion that when it

comes to capital gains tag could there

be a change a differentiation between

you know earned income and that would

protect entrepreneurs versus unearned

income could there be a protection for

long term investment so the small

businesses who then sell their business

to fund their retirement don't get hit

the same extent exactly because they

argu millionair selling shares no and

even if you're a millionaire you would

say you know you've worked hard you've

you've invested in the country you've

made a business work which is why you

are a millionaire and therefore you

should have some of that return you

could have a time frame issue if you're

going to invest in something longterm a

year maybe more than that you get to

have a payoff that s the chatter and the

business sector the three people told me

that this morning I think the budget

will tell whether that's kind of wishful

thinking or it's a new lean a new kind

of their softening on what they're going

to do thank you both very much that's

today's political forecast more from

here at Labor conference tomorrow but

until then bye-bye