The Keys To Weekly Bias | $NQ Trade Breakdown

$niper
11 Sept 202408:37

Summary

TLDRIn this educational trading video, the presenter demystifies the concept of weekly buys by detailing their process for generating a weekly outlook and creating a trade idea. They use the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones weekly charts to identify bullish and bearish fair value gaps, suggesting a market inclination towards lower prices. The video guides viewers on refining this bias with daily charts, highlighting significant market divergences and protected highs. The climax is a precise trade execution strategy using a 1-hour chart, aiming for a 1 to 2 risk-to-reward ratio, which resulted in over a 100-point return. The presenter also shares this strategy with their Discord community, offering a link for interested viewers.

Takeaways

  • 📈 **Weekly Outlook Creation**: The speaker outlines their process for creating a weekly outlook and trade idea based on market analysis.
  • 🔍 **Market Analysis**: They start with a blank chart analysis of NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones on a weekly scale, looking for annotations and patterns.
  • 📉 **Violation of Bullish Fair Value Gap**: A key observation is the violation of a weekly bullish fair value gap on NASDAQ, indicating a potential bearish trend.
  • 🔄 **Correlated Asset Behavior**: The speaker discusses how the behavior of correlated assets can signal market direction, especially when they trade through internal range liquidity pools.
  • 📊 **Daily Chart Refinement**: The process continues with daily charts to refine the weekly bias and identify potential entry points for trades.
  • 🚫 **SMT Divergence**: 'SMT' (Small Minuette) divergence is used as a signal for potential reversals, with the speaker identifying it at key price points.
  • ⏰ **Time Frame Alignment**: The speaker emphasizes aligning timeframes from daily to hourly to identify key levels for trading decisions.
  • 📌 **Internal Range Liquidity Pool Tag**: Identification of internal range liquidity pools and divergence at these tags is crucial for trade setup.
  • 🔔 **Trade Execution**: The speaker details how to set up a sell limit order based on the opening price of an hourly up-close candle, aiming for a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio.
  • 💡 **Discord Community**: The speaker shares their trade ideas and narrative building process with a Discord community, inviting viewers to join for more insights.
  • 📚 **Educational Content**: The video serves as an educational resource, teaching viewers how to frame a weekly narrative and execute trades based on market analysis.

Q & A

  • What is the main focus of the video?

    -The main focus of the video is to explain the process of generating a weekly outlook and creating a trade idea based on market analysis, specifically for a short trade on the NASDAQ.

  • What is a 'weekly buys' concept mentioned in the video?

    -The 'weekly buys' concept refers to the process of analyzing weekly charts to determine potential buying opportunities or, in this case, short selling opportunities in the market.

  • What did the speaker generate from their weekly outlook?

    -The speaker generated a narrative and a trade idea for a short position on the NASDAQ that resulted in over a 100-point return.

  • What is the significance of the 'weekly bullish fair value gap' mentioned in the video?

    -A 'weekly bullish fair value gap' is a technical analysis term that indicates a price level where the market is expected to find support and potentially reverse to the upside. However, in this context, the violation of such a gap suggests a bearish sentiment.

  • Why did the speaker anticipate lower prices despite the S&P 500 and Dow Jones being in a bullish fair value gap?

    -The speaker anticipated lower prices because the NASDAQ, a correlated asset, traded through an internal range liquidity pool, suggesting that the market might be signaling lower prices.

  • What is meant by 'smt' in the context of the video?

    -In the video, 'smt' stands for 'significant market testing', which refers to the repeated testing of a price level that could indicate a potential reversal or continuation of a trend.

  • How does the speaker refine the weekly bias to a daily bias?

    -The speaker refines the weekly bias to a daily bias by analyzing daily charts to identify potential entry points and using the inverse fair value gap as a short interest for a sell position.

  • What is the '1 hour chart' used for in the speaker's analysis?

    -The '1 hour chart' is used to identify key levels and short-term high/low points for setting up trades, specifically to set a sell limit based on the opening price of an up-close candle.

  • What is the 'forever model' referred to in the video?

    -The 'forever model' is a trading strategy that involves identifying a tag of an internal range liquidity pool, significant market testing at that tag, and then waiting for price to create a change and save delivery off of that higher time frame key level tag.

  • What is the speaker's approach to trading at the start of a new week?

    -The speaker's approach to trading at the start of a new week is to build a narrative based on the weekly candle formation, identify potential price points for trades, and then frame execution based on daily charts and market order flow.

  • How does the speaker use the term 'protected High' in their analysis?

    -The term 'protected High' is used when a high point in the market has significant market testing, indicating that it is less likely to be breached and could act as a resistance level for future price movements.

Outlines

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Mindmap

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Keywords

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Highlights

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Transcripts

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Related Tags
Trading StrategiesWeekly OutlookNASDAQ ShortsFair Value GapSMT DivergenceOrder FlowPrice AnalysisRisk RewardDiscord TradingMarket Maker