America's Greatest Challenge: $35 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS

All-In Podcast Clips
2 Apr 202424:13

Summary

TLDRThe transcript discusses Biden's proposed budget for 2025, highlighting an 18% increase from 2023 and a projected deficit of 1.78 trillion. It emphasizes the growth in national debt and interest payments, suggesting that addressing entitlements, defense spending, and taxation is critical. The conversation points to the challenges of managing federal spending and the impact on the economy, proposing potential areas for savings and the need for a multi-decade effort to change the dependency on federal spending.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“ˆ Biden's proposed budget for fiscal 2025 is $7.3 trillion, marking an 18% increase from 2023.
  • πŸ’° The projected deficit for 2025 is $1.78 trillion, averaging a yearly deficit of $1.6 trillion over the next decade.
  • πŸ“Š National debt is currently at $34.5 trillion, with interest payments on the debt set to increase significantly.
  • πŸ”„ The budget highlights a need for conversation on both spending cuts and revenue increases through taxation.
  • πŸ’Έ Defense spending has grown modestly, while entitlements, interest payments, and non-defense spending have surged.
  • πŸ’Š Potential savings could come from changes in Medicare reimbursements for chronic disease treatments.
  • πŸ›° Shifts in defense spending towards unmanned vehicles and cyber initiatives could lead to significant savings.
  • πŸ“‰ Economic studies suggest that increasing taxation beyond 20% of GDP can lead to negative GDP growth.
  • 🚨 The current economic model is heavily dependent on federal spending, with a large portion of the labor force directly employed by or benefiting from the government.
  • 🏦 Strategies to address the budget deficit include freezing federal spending and reevaluating entitlement programs.
  • 🌐 Countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios have not necessarily faced economic failure, suggesting a complex relationship between debt and economic performance.

Q & A

  • What was the proposed budget for fiscal 2025?

    -The proposed budget for fiscal 2025 was 7.3 trillion dollars.

  • How does the proposed budget for 2025 compare to the budgets from 2005 and 2015 in terms of defense spending?

    -Defense spending has grown modestly during the period from 2005 to 2025, but entitlements, interest payments, and non-defense spending have increased significantly.

  • What is the projected deficit for fiscal 2025?

    -The projected deficit for fiscal 2025 is 1.78 trillion dollars, which is similar to the deficits experienced in 2023 and 2024.

  • What is the current national debt of the United States?

    -The current national debt of the United States is approximately 34.5 trillion dollars.

  • How much interest will the US owe on its debt in the next fiscal year?

    -The US will owe 965 billion dollars in interest on its debt in the next fiscal year, which is 65 billion dollars more than the proposed defense budget.

  • What is the projected average deficit per year over the next decade?

    -The budget projects an average deficit of 1.6 trillion dollars per year over the next decade.

  • What are some potential areas for budget savings?

    -Potential areas for budget savings include changes in Medicare reimbursement for certain drugs, and a shift in defense spending towards unmanned vehicles and cyber defense, which could save between 500 billion to a trillion dollars.

  • What is the concern regarding increasing taxation levels?

    -The concern is that when taxation levels increase north of 20% of GDP, GDP growth can go negative, leading to a spiraling problem where government spending needs to increase to support economic growth, creating a dependency on government spending for economic stimulation.

  • What was the government's spending as a percent of GDP during the Clinton surplus years?

    -During the Clinton surplus years, government spending as a percent of GDP was around 18.8%.

  • How has the spending level changed since the 2008 financial crisis?

    -Since the 2008 financial crisis, spending levels have increased significantly, reaching up to 25-30% of GDP during the COVID-19 pandemic, and while it is starting to come down, it remains higher than the pre-crisis levels.

  • What is the proposed solution to control the budget deficit?

    -One proposed solution is to freeze federal spending at its current levels until the federal net outlays as a percent of GDP decrease to 20%.

  • What is the projected population growth for the United States by the end of the century?

    -By the end of the century, the United States is projected to have a population of around 400 million individuals.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ“Š Fiscal Analysis of Biden's 2025 Proposed Budget

The paragraph discusses the details of President Biden's proposed budget for 2025, highlighting the total amount of $7.3 trillion, an 18% increase from the 2023 projected deficit. It compares this budget with those from 2005 and 2015, noting the modest growth in defense spending, while entitlements, interest payments, and non-defense spending have seen a significant increase. The discussion also touches on the national debt, which stands at 34.5 trillion, and the projected average deficit of 1.6 trillion per year over the next decade. The paragraph emphasizes the need for alternative solutions due to the difficulty in cutting expenses, suggesting a conversation around revenues and taxation.

05:00

πŸ’° Addressing the Dependency on Federal Spending

This paragraph delves into the challenges of addressing federal spending, emphasizing the need to freeze spending rather than increase it. It highlights the increase in spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and suggests that the current spending level is unsustainable. The discussion includes statistics on the number of Americans employed by the federal government and those benefiting from it, suggesting a significant dependency on federal spending. The paragraph also touches on the idea of a dedicated multi-decade effort to unwind this dependency, expressing concern over the shift from a lightweight overseeing organization to a more dominant economic player.

10:02

🚨 The Impact of Federal Spending on the Economy

The focus of this paragraph is on the impact of federal spending on the economy, discussing the idea of a ceiling on how much can be extracted from an economy, suggesting a cap on federal spending at 20% of GDP. It explores the concept of an optimal tax code to achieve this target revenue and the historical context of tax rates and government receipts as a percentage of GDP. The paragraph also addresses the issue of special interests influencing federal spending and the lack of productive economic value created by certain types of federal spending, such as defense contracts.

15:03

πŸ“ˆ Economic Dependency and the Future of Social Security

This paragraph examines the economic dependency on federal spending, particularly in areas such as housing, healthcare, and education. It discusses the inflationary effects of government subsidies in these sectors and the need for reform. The conversation turns to the future of Social Security, with suggestions on adjusting retirement age and benefits, and encouraging earlier participation in savings programs like 401(k)s. The paragraph also mentions the distribution of wealth and the potential for individuals to opt-out of Social Security if they do not require it.

20:04

🎁 Robin Hood's Incentives and Generosity in High Stakes

The final paragraph shifts focus to discuss incentives in financial services, specifically highlighting a promotional offer by Robin Hood. It mentions a gold card promotion and the company's strategy to provide a full suite of financial services. The conversation also includes anecdotes about generosity in high-stakes poker games and the culture of tipping in various settings, emphasizing the human aspect of financial interactions.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Budget

A budget is a financial plan that allocates resources for spending, saving, and investing over a specified period. In the context of the video, it refers to the proposed budget for fiscal 2025, highlighting the increase in spending and projected deficit, which is a major point of discussion throughout the transcript.

πŸ’‘Deficit

A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed its revenues, resulting in the need to borrow money to cover the shortfall. In the video, the projected deficit of 1.78 trillion is a significant concern, as it indicates the growing national debt and the sustainability of fiscal policies.

πŸ’‘National Debt

National debt is the total amount of money that a government has borrowed, including interest, over the years to finance its operations when tax revenues are insufficient. The transcript mentions the national debt reaching 34.5 trillion, which is a critical issue as it affects the country's financial health and creditworthiness.

πŸ’‘Entitlements

Entitlements refer to government-sponsored programs that provide benefits to individuals based on eligibility criteria, such as age, income, or disability. In the video, entitlements are highlighted as a significant area of spending that has grown substantially and contributes to the budget deficit.

πŸ’‘Interest Payments

Interest payments are the cost a government pays to service its debt, including the principal and the interest on bonds and other loans. The video script emphasizes the growing interest payments on the national debt, which are expected to surpass 1 trillion, indicating a heavy financial burden on the government.

πŸ’‘Taxation

Taxation is the process by which the government collects money from individuals and businesses to fund public services and infrastructure. In the video, taxation is discussed as a potential solution to address the budget deficit, with the speakers debating the optimal tax levels and their impact on economic growth.

πŸ’‘GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. The video discusses the relationship between taxation, spending, and GDP, emphasizing the historical data that suggests a maximum extraction rate of 20% of GDP for federal revenues.

πŸ’‘Federal Spending

Federal spending refers to the expenditure by the national government on various programs, services, and initiatives. The transcript highlights the increase in federal spending, particularly in areas like healthcare, education, and defense, and the impact of this spending on the economy and the dependency on government for employment and benefits.

πŸ’‘Special Interests

Special interests are groups or individuals that seek to influence public policy and decision-making for their own benefit. In the video, the term is used to describe entities that benefit from federal spending and lobby for continued or increased government spending, which the speakers argue contributes to the fiscal challenges faced by the country.

πŸ’‘Economic Growth

Economic growth refers to the increase in the production of goods and services in an economy over time, typically measured by the increase in GDP. The speakers in the video debate how government taxation and spending policies can impact economic growth, with a focus on the balance between stimulating the economy and maintaining fiscal responsibility.

πŸ’‘Dependency

Dependency in this context refers to the reliance of individuals, businesses, or the economy as a whole on government spending and programs. The video discusses the growing dependency on federal spending and its implications for the labor force, the economy, and the long-term sustainability of such dependency.

Highlights

Biden's proposed budget for 2025 is $7.3 trillion, an 18% increase from 2023.

The 2025 budget projects an average deficit of $1.6 trillion per year over the next decade.

The national debt is currently at $34.5 trillion.

Defense spending has modestly increased, while entitlements, interest payments, and non-defense spending have significantly jumped.

The US will owe $965 billion in interest on its debt next year, which is $65 billion more than the proposed defense budget.

By 2026, the US is projected to surpass $1 trillion in interest owed on its debt.

There is a need to discuss alternatives to address the areas of spending that continue to grow uncontrollably.

The conversation may need to shift towards revenues and taxation to address the budget deficit.

Economic studies show that increasing taxation levels beyond 20% of GDP can lead to negative GDP growth.

Federal spending as a percent of GDP was around 18.8% during the Clinton surplus years.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, federal spending increased to 25-30% of GDP.

There are about 3 million Americans directly employed by the federal government.

Federal spending flowing into the economy is about $3.5 trillion a year.

Approximately 50 million people in the US rely on Social Security.

There are 12 to 20 million people in the US paying more than a 50% tax rate.

Federal spending levels have created a significant dependency on the government for a large portion of the labor force.

The federal government has become the primary customer or employer for much of the labor force in the United States.

There is a need for a multi-decade effort to unwind the deep dependency on federal spending.

Federal receipts as a percent of GDP have historically not gone above 20%.

The US debt to GDP ratio is still relatively reasonable compared to other countries.

The US is the only Western country forecasted to grow at reasonable rates above replacement population.

Transcripts

play00:00

all right so let's break down Biden's

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proposed budget of

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2025 proposed budget was 7.3 trillion

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for fiscal 2025 that starts in October

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of 2024 it's up 18% from 2023 projected

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deficit 1.78 trillion which is similar

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to the deficits we ran in 23 and 24 the

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budget projects an average deficit of

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1.6 trillion per year over the next

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decade national debt as uh freeberg was

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alluding to is in say it's at 34.5

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trillion but we made some charts here to

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go through all of this let's pull up the

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first chart and this is comparing

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Biden's proposed budget in 2025 with

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budgets from 2005 and 2015 defense

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spending has actually grown pretty

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modestly during that time but

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entitlements interest payments and

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non-defense spending have jumped

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significantly us will owe 965 billion in

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interest on its debt next year that's 65

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billion more than the pros defense

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budget

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and in 2026 the US will surpass 1

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trillion on interest owed on its debt

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and we'll talk about that more in a

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minute but let's start here with this

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first chart anything jump out to you

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chth here that's notable and worth

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discussing all the areas that we need to

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cut we can't even have a conversation

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about so they'll never get cut and

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they'll keep

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growing so I think that we probably need

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to figure out what the alternatives are

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so if you can't have a conversation

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about expenses the only logical place is

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to have a conversation about revenues

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and what that means for the government

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is in

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taxation and so I don't know Jason what

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we do

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here there could be a couple of saving

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Graces so there are some things

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happening for example on the Medicare

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side that could be profoundly disruptive

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they are now I'm not again I'm just

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going to put this out there as it's

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happening I don't know if it's good or

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bad but they are looking at reimbursing

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things like wovi and OIC and whatnot if

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you look at the underlying costs of

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those kinds of chronic diseases diabetes

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heart disease

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Etc and you put a large swwa of the

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American population on those drugs the

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reimbursement value of those drugs

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versus the cost of actually The Chronic

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Care Management would save you many

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hundreds of billions of dollars a year

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so that's something second is on the

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defense side there's a large portion of

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that budget that's migrating away from

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traditional tactical Warfare to things

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that are unmanned vehicles and cyber and

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whatnot that could save two or300

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billion dollars there so there are

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places where you could save 500 billion

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to a trillion

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dollars but I think it's going to be a

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almost impossible conversation and it'll

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happen by accident so then the only

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forced conversation that I think we are

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going to have as a society is around

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Taxation and that's really bad

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for you know a lot of people that don't

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believe that's the path to generating

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growth one of the challenges is that

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there are and and we should reference

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these in the show notes Nick but there

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are well researched economic studies

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that show that when a government tries

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to increase the taxation level north of

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20% of GDP of that economy that you

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actually see GDP growth go negative that

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there's a certain natural equilibrium on

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which you can tax the system beyond that

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level investment dollars go down and

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growth begins to shrink and that's what

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triggers the spiraling problem because

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then the government spending needs to go

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up to continue to grow and support

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growth in the economy and it creates

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this inevitable totally spiral L would

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you call this the Atlas Shrug the Atlas

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Shrug effect is investment goes down

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there's a Fred chart yeah showing

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percent of GDP that's federal tax

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receipts and then percent of GDP that's

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spending exactly and and then the Gap is

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your deficit okay and freeberg is right

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that I think in the absolute best

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economy or best years of the best

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economy so it's like you know the best

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year of the Reagan boom and the best

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year of the Clinton boom when we had the

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government surplus I think the

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government was extracting just shy of

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20% of

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GDP and in the 70s when marginal tax

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rates were at 70% so before the rean tax

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Cuts we were actually extra extracting a

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lower percentage of GDP so there's only

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so much blood you can get from a stone

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if you raise tax rates on a marginal

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basis high enough the economy performs

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worse and you actually end up collecting

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less or people spend a lot more money on

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lawyers and accountants to basically

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figure out more structuring schemes to

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avoid paying taxes so the years in which

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we've got the highest percentage of

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Revenue out of the economy are in good

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economic years where we've had

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reasonable levels of Taxation as opposed

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to the highest levels of Taxation and so

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the problem is with the spending I mean

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we used to be able to keep spending to

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somewhere

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between i' would say in the best years

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of of the years of the Clinton Surplus I

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think spending as a percent of GDP was

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like

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18.8% it's around

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20% of GDP goes to federal spending

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that's that was normal we but then the

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spending got out of control during covid

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and it went up to like 25 30% of GDP

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went to federal spending it's starting

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to come down but it's still way too big

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a number anyway my my point is that a

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starting point for dealing with next

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year's budget is free spending just

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freeze spending you know the 18%

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increase is not a good idea if we want

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to get this problem under control freeze

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the spending we can talk about taxation

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but you're only going to get so much

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blood from a stone an increased spending

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is stimulatory and so works well in an

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election year I would say we took two

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major crises and we had crisis level

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spending and then we normalized that

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spending and allowed it to carry forward

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starting with the 08 financial crisis

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with our monetary policy and then being

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accelerated with covid and and our

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fiscal policy I'll give you guys I I did

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some back of the envelope math I'm sure

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there are economists who have done a

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better job of this than I there are

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directly three million Americans that

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are directly employed by the federal

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government there's 167 million workers

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in the US so 3 million are directly

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employed by the federal government if

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you take the rest of the federal

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spending that flows into the economy

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it's about three and a half trillion a

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year and assume 30% of that Capital goes

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to equity holders and businesses that

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own businesses that benefit from that

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spending and the rest flows through to

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labor that's about 133% of GDP flowing

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through to labor and assuming average

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annual income that's another roughly

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4550 million people that are directly

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benefiting that are directly earning

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income because of federal spending

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there's another 50 million people in the

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US that rely on Social Security and

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here's another important statistic

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there's somewhere between 12 and 20

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million people in the US that pay more

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than

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50% tax rate today so those people are

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effectively working for the federal

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government because half of their their

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income goes back to the government so

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when you add this all up there's there's

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over 100 120 million people in the US

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that are directly working for or getting

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paid by the federal government in the US

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that is such a significant percentage of

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our economy that is such a significant

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dependency on individual income on a

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federal

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government it I I don't want to use the

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term socialism but the the ability for

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us labor to earn is so largely dependent

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and largely driven by federal spending

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at this point it becomes this critical

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Lynch pin to enabling progression

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economically to enabling the labor force

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to continue to participate that the

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federal government is now the primary

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customer or employer of most of the

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labor force in the United States today

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that is a deeply and profoundly

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different circumstance than what I think

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the founding fathers envisioned when the

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federal government was supposed to be

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this

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lightweight overseeing organization of a

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Federated Republic of states and

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unfortunately I think we find ourselves

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in a condition as Jamal points out

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that's very hard to get out of this is

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going to require a dedicated multi-

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deade effort to create a slow unwinding

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from this deep dependency that our labor

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force has on federal spending and I I'm

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just like so shocked that this isn't the

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the critical problem of our day that

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we're not all spending time on folks

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have pointed out that this only goes one

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way at this point hey Nick can you bring

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up that first Fred chart this is federal

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receipts as percent of GDP and it goes

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all the way back to World War II to

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freeberg point we've never gone above

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20% look at that and we've had tax rates

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as high as 90% I'm saying top marginal

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tax rates as high as 90% I think after

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World War II because we're trying to get

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out of the deficit that was created by

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the war spending you can't get above 20

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yeah exactly the economy shrinks no but

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hold on the the I I gave you this oecd

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report it says that since 2000 we've

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been in the mid 20s and the oecd average

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is 34 in terms of tax to GDP tax to GDP

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is this this includes state and local

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then

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right probably yeah yeah I just showed

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Federal I think this probably includes

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state and local which by the way is a

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whole another BWI because I didn't

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include those numbers in my employment

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statistics the US Bureau of Labor

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Statistics estimates that about 20.2

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million Americans are employed by local

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and state governments directly employed

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by local and state government so again

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when you add this all up the majority of

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the US Labor Force is employed by the

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government or is a beneficiary of the

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government as the primary customer or is

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supported by government entitlement

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programs if you go back to that Fred

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chart for a second I mean if you if you

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basically acknowledge the point that 20%

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is the ceiling on how much we can

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extract from an Economy based on 80

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years of data okay with all sorts of

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differing tax schemes then I think what

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we should say is that federal spending

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will be capped at 20% of GDP yeah we

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should you see what I'm saying like if

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we can't goove 20% on receipts cap cap

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federal spending be a constitutional

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amendment right that's it and then and

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then on the revenue side we should say

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what is the best tax code to achieve

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that 18 19 20% because what we do right

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now is we just say well just tax the

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rich but what we've seen is we've been

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taxing the rich as high as 90% in the

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past and you didn't get more Revenue so

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we should be much more scientific about

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saying well given that our Target is

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let's say 20% what's the best way to do

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that and no one really has that

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conversation no none of the

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conversations have to do with data or

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building a a bulletproof system the same

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thing we could say about immigration

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where we try to talk about the numbers

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here of what's a reasonable number of

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people and tying that to an actual

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number um and it's pretty obvious we

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should have one immigration policy when

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we have 5% unemployment and a different

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one if we had

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God forbid 15 or 20% unemployment can we

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just say TI to the unemployment rate the

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fundamental structural problem I'm

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highlighting is that we've created an

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economy that is so deeply dependent on

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federal spending that the federal

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spending levels are what support so many

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employed and so many companies in the US

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you're answering your own question

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that's why I can't stop right I don't

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think the real economy that creates all

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the Innovation and all the value and all

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the the the good paying jobs I think

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that is separate from the deflationary

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economy that's the that's the true

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market based deflationary economy the

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problem is once we've layered in all of

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these layers of dependency from federal

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dollars flowing into businesses or into

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people's pockets it's very difficult to

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back out of that I don't call that

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dependency I call that special interests

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I think there's a lot of special

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interests who are basically looting the

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federal government and taking all this

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money and then they turn around and use

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some of it to to donate back to the

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politicians and Lobby for more spending

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so what you're calling dependency is

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really more special interest meaning

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that I don't think we need to have this

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level of spending in order to have a

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successful economy I think it makes our

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economy less successful yeah it's still

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stimulatory because sax remember Mitch

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McConnell when they were talking about

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supporting Ukraine his primary argument

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as you remember was that all of these

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dollars are going to go into defense

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contractors Pockets which is going to go

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to employees Pockets which is going to

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stimulate our economy that's the

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fundamental thinking

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know but that's the thinking behind it

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right I mean that's the political system

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that okay let me just walk through this

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real quick if the government prints a

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bunch of money and hands it to people as

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stemy check we all understand that

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creates no economic value it just

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creates inflation okay now if the

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government does the same thing but

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instead of a stimy check pays people to

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dig holes and fill them back up that's

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the exact same thing no economic value

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just inflation now let's say the

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government pays people to create bombs

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that create holes in other countries

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exact same thing no economic value for

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the country it just creates inflation

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here why is that because the only thing

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that creates economic value in the

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United States is the production of goods

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and services that people can actually

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consume and use and that they want and

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so federal spending on basically make

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work projects or things that people

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don't really want or they don't use or

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even worse bombs that get dropped on

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poor people in other countries none of

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that creates any value

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but I don't think it's a real economic

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dependency I think it is just a special

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interest that keeps lobbying for all

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this St what about housing and health

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care and education because those are the

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three biggest line items and it's been

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inflationary across all three of those

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line items in the US economy the federal

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government has stepped in to provide

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broader access to housing broader access

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to healthcare and broader access to

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education and in the process that's why

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the price goes up yeah you know there's

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that famous chart showing inflation by

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category and all the categories where

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the federal government provid subsidies

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the prices have gone up and all the C

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healthare and housing and hous the more

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the government tries to subsidize it the

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more the providers realize a second we

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can charge whatever we want govern

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there's one customer and they'll always

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pay one customer that's got to be

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completely reformed yeah here's a chart

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of all employees in government and I

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think this Fred chart includes all

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employees in government which would

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include state and local and as you can

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see we're yeah that's right it's 20

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million local in state 3 million Federal

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and then the math I was highlighting was

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just my back of the envelope math where

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there's 50 million people that are on

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Social Security in the US plus if you do

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the math on how government spending

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flows into employers into employees

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pockets it's about another 45 50 million

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people that benefit from federal

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spending in the US we're already kind of

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at a point of maximal dependency if you

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will yeah I mean if you look at this

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chart we have had 20,000 people working

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in government since the late 90s yeah 20

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million since the late 90s it's it's now

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hitting a peak and the question is you

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know how far up does it go from here

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it's 23 obviously the country is growing

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as well each year so as a percentage we

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don't have the percentage but as a

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percentage of Americans it hasn't grown

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that dramatically but it certainly feels

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like this could keep going in the wrong

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direction the one thing to keep in mind

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from all the

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doomsday I would just offer you two data

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points the first is that our debt to

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GDP either historically but also in

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relation to other countries is still

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relatively reasonable and what that

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basically shows is we have a lot more

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debt that we can issue which means that

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there's a lot more deficits to run not

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saying that it's right yeah before the

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great financial crisis it was running at

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50 60% our debt as a percentage of GDP

play16:25

and to your point jamath it's now at 1.2

play16:28

it's

play16:30

120% other countries have much higher so

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we have a lot more to run yeah so Nick

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if you want to just throw that up and so

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it means that the countries on the right

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haven't failed they haven't done great

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necessarily but they haven't failed in

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the way that we would Define failure and

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it's not as if the countries on the left

play16:46

are crushing it the way that we would

play16:48

Define crushing it and so it's not clear

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that there's a real correlation between

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debt to GDP and the performance over

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large longitudinal periods of times as a

play16:57

country that's the first thing I'll say

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the second thing is if you actually look

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at all of these countries the thing to

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keep in mind is where are populations

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growing and shrinking because at a very

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basic level jcal you you mentioned this

play17:09

earlier but when countries are shrinking

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there's no fundamental ability to grow

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GDP and you're just debating how much it

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shrinks and the interesting thing about

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the United States is we are the

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only Western country that is forecasted

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to grow at reasonable rates above our

play17:28

replacement population and so you know

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by the end of this Century we'll be

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around 400 400 odd million individuals

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and other countries will have been cut

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in half and so again there's some

play17:40

positive news as well now to your

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earlier point the problem is politicians

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will use this as a reason to continue

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spending because they won't be forced to

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and that's not a great thing but this is

play17:53

probably why the status quo would go on

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for a very long

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time h

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so grab the bag get your bag figure

play18:02

figure out what your figure out what

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your thing is I don't know man I just

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want people like voters to people to

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just they're not going to get your bag

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like everybody else problem we have is

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if okay Nick can you pull up the the

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Fred spending chart we've talked about

play18:18

this a few times well okay so if you

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look there there's a huge Spike because

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of Co because of all that covid stimulus

play18:25

that was air dropped in the economy I

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think we're now down to about 22% for

play18:29

2023 mhm but that that's a big number

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you know we talked about how the

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absolute Max you can extract is 20% so

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what they should do is just freeze

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spending until the federal net outlays

play18:43

as a percent of GDP is down to 20% that

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would be the the simplest thing such an

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easy solution what's great about it is

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it takes out the politicians making this

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partisan hey there is a logical amount

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of you know taxation we can do before we

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freeze up the productivity of the

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country which if you talk to anybody

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when taxes get high people just start

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getting into protecting their wealth I

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think you alluded to that with

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strategies as opposed to investing the

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hard part of it is that I mean look I

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think we should do it you know 20% cap

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and free spending till we get there the

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the hard part is that our interest

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expense keeps growing because as our

play19:21

debt rolls onto more

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expensive higher interest bonds than our

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interest expensive is increasing just a

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few years ago our interest expense was

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only 300 billion a year now it's over a

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trillion a year and that's just going to

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keep growing and growing and then the

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other thing that's going to grow is all

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the entitlements related to to

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demographics so the country's

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demographics are getting worse and so

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the inment expenses are going to go up

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so even holding it to 20% if we could

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get there is going to take some work the

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L I don't know if you read Larry Fink's

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letter from Black Rock it was really

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good you talked about you mean his 2030

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business plan JL basically yeah it's his

play20:03

way of extracting value from it but he

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did make some sing points in it as

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opposed to just him talking his book of

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why you should do his retire your

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retirement savings with black rock is a

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fair point but just getting the what age

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do people retire at that discussion we

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need to have and we we're not having

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that as a country and then what

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percentage of benefits do people get at

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different how do we incentivize people

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to stay in the workforce well at a

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minimum don't you agree we should just

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allow people to out of Social Security

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and in a simple way of saying I don't

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need it and I'll take care of myself use

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these proceeds for somebody else that

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could use it that who has a better need

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for absolutely yeah I mean and then

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getting people to participate in the

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401ks you know at an earlier age and

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defaulting those to on as of defaulting

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them to off there's a lot of small

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behavioral things we could do in this

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country to get people saving

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earlier wow I uh I saw that Robin Hood

play20:58

was running a scheme where if you moved

play20:59

your Roth IRA they gave you 3% cash back

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and I thought is there an upper bound

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limit on what on how much you could move

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over because I wonder if I could I think

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you have to keep your money in there for

play21:10

five years yeah but that's okay I'm just

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wondering like will they really write

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like a hundred million check if you

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MoveOn Robin Hood just sent me something

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so we had a portfolio company called X1

play21:22

which was making a new like credit card

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and credit card app it was like awesome

play21:27

I don't know if you guys used it

play21:29

anyway they got acquired by Robin Hood

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and so the guys here just sent me their

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new Robin Hood gold card card yeah this

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thing is the heaviest card here just

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listen to it drop hold on me tell my

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micone don't cut yourself don't cut your

play21:42

toe

play21:44

off apparently it's got $1,100 worth of

play21:47

gold in it I have coming myself and i'

play21:50

I'm proud to say I've sold no shares of

play21:52

my Robin Hood I keep all my Robin Hood

play21:54

shares if my if I move my Roth iral

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they'll have to give me the whole

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building you give you a goldplated

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building actually they they sent it to

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me in a uh Louis Vuitton with a Louis

play22:04

Vuitton wallet this is like unbelievable

play22:07

yes it's got and look they got a

play22:09

$50,000 got a $50,000 ad on the got like

play22:13

a little LV wallet there oh I like there

play22:16

you have it folks send to Louis Vuitton

play22:18

wallet get a free $50,000 ad on the Pod

play22:21

sign up now for your Robin Hood gold

play22:24

yeah but what is it a credit card yeah

play22:25

it's a credit card it's a credit card

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yeah their their their whole plan was

play22:28

was always to provide the full Suite of

play22:30

services do you guys carry credit cards

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and

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money do you have any money my wallet

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but I always carry money you have money

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I always carry money yeah like to tip

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tip people or something always have some

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cashish never you always got to have a

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couple of hyy just in case it's a really

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bad habit you got to keep a couple of

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hyy in the bag you put the 100 on the

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outside J account there's a bunch of

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ones no we don't do that you get caught

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doing that in Brooklyn you get your ass

play22:59

on the outside no no no no you what we

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do is we get rid of the ones the fives

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and the tens you just get rid of those

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you don't even keep them in circulation

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that's that's the best line um I get

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cash when I go to Vegas but that's the

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time the best line ever was this woman

play23:14

comes up to Sammy Davis Jr and she says

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hey uh C can you um can you can you

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break uh you know this whatever amount

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of money and he just pulls out a hundred

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and gives her a hundred and

play23:29

she says no no can can you make change

play23:30

he says that is change baby that is

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change that's what he considered change

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was the hundy there was a story out of

play23:36

juu so you know Triton poker yes okay

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I'm not gonna say who it is but there's

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a guy that was playing the high stakes

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cash game and apparently so he lost like

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eight million bucks okay he tipped out

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450k in 25K chips to like the staff and

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like the person giving him a massage and

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stuff so it apparently became a

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free-for-all trying to get into this

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game where everybody was like are we

play24:01

pulling tips are we pulling tips and

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they were like no we're not pulling

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tips just Flags he was tipping off Flags

play24:08

wow that is incredibly incredibly

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generous

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Related Tags
BudgetAnalysisNationalDebtDeficitTrendsFederalSpendingTaxationImpactEconomicGrowthPolicyReformGovernmentDependencyFiscalResponsibilityEconomicChallenges