Defisit APBN Prabowo Rp 600 Triliun Dinilai Terlalu Tinggi, Berbahaya?

Summary

The video discusses concerns surrounding Indonesia's 2025 state budget (APBN), focusing on a proposed fiscal deficit of 2.4% to 2.8% of GDP, translating to approximately IDR 600 trillion. While the increased deficit aims to provide flexibility for new government programs under Prabowo Subianto’s administration, experts warn it could limit future fiscal space, especially amid global economic uncertainties. The historical context shows more moderate deficits in previous years, raising questions about sustainability. The need for robust strategies to boost domestic tax revenues and manage long-term debt is highlighted to avoid potential financial strain.

Takeaways

• 😀 The 2025 APBN draft seems to allow for a larger fiscal deficit, ranging from 2.4% to 2.8% of GDP, providing flexibility for the next administration.
• 😀 This larger deficit may be aimed at accommodating new government programs or political promises made by President-elect Prabowo and his administration.
• 😀 There is concern that a higher deficit may increase future fiscal burdens, limiting room for economic flexibility in the long term.
• 😀 A larger deficit in 2025 could exacerbate the impact of uncertain global economic conditions, such as high interest rates or potential economic slowdowns.
• 😀 The fiscal deficit in 2023 was around 1.6%, which is considerably lower than the proposed 2.4% to 2.8% for 2025, raising questions about the rationale behind the increase.
• 😀 Comparing historical transitions, previous governments did not present such high deficits during the transition, with 2019 having a deficit of 2.3%.
• 😀 Public concern is growing over why the proposed deficit has been set at such a high level and whether it may lead to unsustainable fiscal conditions.
• 😀 There are fears that a significantly higher deficit will limit the government's ability to manage public finances effectively, particularly in the face of economic uncertainty.
• 😀 The government should also focus on strategies to boost revenue generation to balance out the larger deficit, rather than just increasing fiscal space.
• 😀 The potential long-term consequence of a high deficit could be the narrowing of fiscal space due to mounting debt and higher interest payments, making it harder to respond to future crises.

Q & A

What is the main concern regarding the proposed deficit for the 2025 APBN?

The main concern is that the proposed deficit of 2.4% to 2.8% of GDP could result in a significantly tighter fiscal space in the future, especially considering the uncertainties in the global economy and potential economic downturns.

Why is the current government proposing such a large deficit for 2025?

The government is likely providing more fiscal space to accommodate potential new programs or initiatives promised during President Prabowo Subianto's campaign, which could lead to higher-than-expected spending.

How does the proposed deficit in 2025 compare to previous years?

The proposed deficit of 2.4% to 2.8% is larger than recent years. For example, the 2019 deficit was around 2.3%, and the 2023 deficit was around 1.6%. This increase is a notable concern.

What is the potential risk of having such a large deficit in 2025?

A large deficit could lead to a higher debt burden, including increased interest payments, which could further restrict fiscal space. Additionally, it may negatively affect domestic tax revenues if the economy slows down.

How should the government balance the large deficit with its revenue strategy?

The government should not only allow for a larger deficit but also have a clear plan to boost revenue, particularly through improved tax collection, to mitigate the risk of further tightening fiscal space.

What does the speaker say about the uncertainty surrounding the 2025 APBN?

The speaker mentions that the larger deficit range (2.4% to 2.8%) indicates the government's attempt to prepare for unpredictable new programs, but the lack of clarity about these programs raises concerns about the sustainability of such a deficit.

What historical trends are compared to the proposed 2025 deficit?

The speaker compares the proposed 2025 deficit with past years, such as 2019, where the deficit was around 2.3%, and 2023, where it was 1.6%, to emphasize that the 2025 proposal is a significant jump.

How does the speaker view the relationship between fiscal policy and economic uncertainty?

The speaker warns that an overly large deficit in the face of economic uncertainty could worsen fiscal stability, especially if global economic conditions or domestic tax revenues falter.

What is the speaker's recommendation regarding the fiscal policy for 2025?

The speaker suggests that while the government may aim for a larger deficit, it is critical to have a well-defined strategy for increasing domestic revenues to offset potential risks and maintain fiscal health.

What role does global economic uncertainty play in the evaluation of the 2025 APBN?

Global economic uncertainty is a key factor that heightens concerns about the large proposed deficit. External factors, such as economic slowdowns or potential recessions, could undermine domestic revenue generation and make it harder to sustain the large deficit.