NEW: Kamala Harris Now LEADS in ALL Major Election Forecasts

Summary

In this video, the host discusses various forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election, highlighting consensus among models like The Economist, 538, and JHK, which predict Kamala Harris as the likely winner. The analysis focuses on key battleground states and the electoral pathway to victory, emphasizing the importance of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada for Harris. Despite some variation in state predictions, the overall trend points to a narrow but significant advantage for Harris, suggesting she could win with 276 electoral votes.

Takeaways

• 📅 The video discusses various forecasts for the 2024 U.S. presidential election as of September 22, 2024.
• 🔮 Multiple forecasting models, including The Economist, the head-to-head National 2024 race, the race to the White House, Nate Silver's 538 forecast, and JHK forecast, converge on the prediction that Kamala Harris is likely to be the next president.
• 📊 The 538 forecast, which has been closely tracked, aligns with other models, suggesting a consistent conclusion across different methodologies.
• 📈 The Economist gives Harris a 60% chance of winning, with Donald Trump at 40%, reflecting a general trend among the forecasts.
• 🗳️ The path to victory for Harris is predicted to lie through key battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, mirroring Nate Silver's model.
• 📉 Despite having to pay for detailed state models in Nate Silver's forecast, the general consensus on battleground states is clear.
• 🔄 There's a noticeable shift in the odds after the debate, with Harris improving her chances in several states.
• 🏛️ The average number of electoral votes expected for Harris across forecasts is around 277, aligning with the electoral votes from the predicted battleground states.
• 💰 Political betting markets, while having some biases, also show a trend favoring Harris, particularly in states like Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
• 🌐 The consensus among different forecasting models and markets points to a narrow but likely victory for Kamala Harris if the election were held today.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is the analysis of various national forecasts for the 2024 presidential election, focusing on the likelihood of Kamala Harris becoming the next president of the United States.

Which forecasting models are discussed in the video?

The video discusses several forecasting models including The Economist forecast, the head-to-head National 2024 race forecast, the race to the White House forecast, Nate Silver's 538 forecast, and the JHK forecast.

What is the consensus among the forecasting models regarding Kamala Harris's chances?

The consensus among the forecasting models is that Kamala Harris is likely to win the presidency, with most models giving her a higher chance of victory over Donald Trump.

What are the key battleground states that the models focus on?

The key battleground states that the models focus on include Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

How does the video describe the pathway to victory for Kamala Harris according to the models?

The video describes the pathway to victory for Kamala Harris as relying on winning states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which are part of the 'blue wall' and have been historically Democratic-leaning.

What is the significance of the 'blue wall' in the context of the video?

The 'blue wall' refers to a group of states in the Great Lakes and Rust Belt regions that have historically voted for Democratic candidates. The video suggests that Kamala Harris's victory would rely on maintaining these states in the Democratic column.

How does the video analyze the impact of the debates on the candidates' chances?

The video notes that after the debate, there was a shift in the odds with Kamala Harris improving her chances in certain states, suggesting that her performance may have had a positive impact on her campaign.

What does the video suggest about the role of political betting markets in forecasting election outcomes?

The video suggests that while political betting markets can provide additional insights, they tend to lean towards favoring Republican candidates and may not always align with other forecasting models.

What is the video's conclusion about the 2024 presidential election if it were held today?

The video concludes that if the election were held today, Kamala Harris would likely win, with a narrow advantage, particularly in states like Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and possibly North Carolina.

How does the video address the potential for changes in the election forecast?

The video acknowledges that while the current forecasts show Kamala Harris with a slight edge, the race is still very much a tossup, and the outcome could change depending on various factors leading up to the election.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ 2024 Presidential Election Forecasts

The video discusses various forecasts for the 2024 presidential election, focusing on predictions from The Economist, the head-to-head National 2024 race, Nate Silver's 538 forecast, and jhk forecast. These forecasts consistently indicate that Kamala Harris is likely to be the next president of the United States. The 538 forecast, which has been closely followed by the channel, aligns with other models in predicting a similar outcome. The video highlights how these models, despite using different methodologies, have converged on a consensus that Harris has the advantage, particularly in key battleground states.

05:02

📊 Analysis of Battleground State Forecasts

This section delves into the forecasts for specific battleground states, which are crucial for the electoral victory. The Economist predicts a 60% chance for Harris to win Michigan and similar probabilities in other states like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The video contrasts these odds with those given by other models, such as the Race to the White House forecast, which shows slightly higher chances for Harris in these states. It also discusses how these forecasts have shifted over time, particularly in response to debates and other campaign events, and how they contribute to the overall electoral vote count that could lead to a Harris victory.

10:03

📉 Shifts in Political Betting Markets

The video also touches on political betting markets, which, despite not being the main focus, provide additional insights into the election's dynamics. It notes how Kamala Harris's odds have improved over time, reflecting a shift in the perception of her chances. The discussion points out that while betting markets like Polymarket lean towards favoring Republican candidates, they still align with other forecasts in predicting a Harris advantage in key states. The video suggests that these markets, despite their biases, are starting to reflect the consensus that Harris is in a strong position to win the election.

15:04

🏆 Final Thoughts on the Election Outcome

In conclusion, the video summarizes the alignment of various forecasting models and betting markets, which all point to Kamala Harris having a narrow but significant advantage in the 2024 presidential election. It emphasizes the importance of the 'blue wall' states and Nevada in Harris's potential victory path. The video ends with a call to action for viewers to engage with the content, subscribe, and join the community for further discussion on the election analysis.

Keywords

💡National Forecast

A national forecast in the context of the video refers to predictions made about the outcome of the 2024 presidential election across the United States. The video discusses various forecasts from different sources, all aiming to predict the potential winner based on current data and trends. It is central to the video's theme as it sets the stage for understanding the different methodologies and conclusions drawn by various forecasting models.

💡Economist Forecast

The Economist forecast mentioned in the video is one of the several models used to predict the outcome of the presidential election. It is noted for giving Kamala Harris a 60% chance of winning, which is significant as it aligns with other forecasts and contributes to the consensus that Harris is likely to be the next president. This forecast is part of the broader discussion on the reliability and alignment of different predictive models.

💡538 Forecast

The 538 forecast, named after the number of electors in the U.S. Electoral College, is a prominent election forecast model discussed in the video. It is known for its detailed state-by-state analysis and is highlighted for its consistency in predicting a higher chance of victory for Kamala Harris. This forecast is integral to the video's narrative as it provides a specific example of how data is used to forecast election outcomes.

💡Battleground States

Battleground states, also known as swing states, are states where the election outcome is uncertain and can swing between different candidates. In the video, these states are crucial as they are the focus of the forecasting models' analysis. The discussion around Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada illustrates how these states could be key to determining the election's winner, showcasing their importance in the electoral process.

💡Electoral Votes

Electoral votes are the votes cast by the Electoral College for a candidate in a U.S. presidential election. The video frequently discusses the number of electoral votes that Kamala Harris is predicted to win, with numbers like 277 being highlighted. This concept is fundamental to understanding the video's theme as it directly relates to how a candidate can win the presidency, not by the popular vote but by securing a majority in the Electoral College.

💡Fundraising Data

Fundraising data refers to the financial contributions collected by a political campaign, which can be an indicator of a candidate's popularity and organizational strength. The video mentions that fundraising data is one of the factors considered by the forecasting models to predict election outcomes. It is an example of the various non-polling data points that are analyzed to forecast the election, adding depth to the predictive process discussed in the video.

💡Head-to-Head Forecast

A head-to-head forecast specifically compares the chances of two candidates against each other. In the video, this term is used to discuss the direct competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with various forecasts suggesting Harris's likelihood to win. This concept is central to the video as it simplifies the complex data into a more digestible format for viewers to understand the direct competition in the election.

💡Consensus Map

The consensus map in the video refers to a visualization that aggregates the predictions from various forecasting models to show a general agreement on the likely outcome of the election. It is mentioned as a tool that helps to build a collective picture of the election's potential result, indicating a broad agreement among different models and analysts about the states that could determine the election winner.

💡Political Betting Markets

Political betting markets are platforms where people can place bets on political outcomes, such as election results. The video briefly touches on these markets, noting how they can sometimes diverge from other forecasting models, as seen with the Polymarket's leaning towards Republican candidates. This concept is relevant as it introduces another layer of prediction and analysis that exists outside of traditional polling and data analysis.

💡Rustbelt Region

The rustbelt region refers to a section of the United States, particularly the Midwest, known for its history in industrial manufacturing. In the video, the rustbelt states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are highlighted as crucial for Kamala Harris's pathway to victory, indicating their historical significance in U.S. presidential elections and their continued relevance in the electoral forecast.

Highlights

The video discusses various forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election, including The Economist, the head-to-head National 2024 race, the race to the White House, Nate Silver's forecast, and the JHK forecast.

All the mentioned forecasts align on the conclusion that Kamala Harris is likely to be the next president of the United States.

The 538 forecast, which was released early in the election season, has consistently shown Kamala Harris with a higher chance of victory.

The Economist forecast gives Kamala Harris a 60% chance of winning the presidency, while Donald Trump has a 40% chance.

The Race to the White House forecast aligns with The Economist, showing a 61% chance for Kamala Harris and a 39% chance for Donald Trump.

Nate Silver's forecast, while requiring a subscription for detailed state data, shows Kamala Harris with a 54% chance of electoral victory.

JHK forecast also supports the consensus, with a 57% to 43% prediction in favor of Kamala Harris.

The pathway to victory for Kamala Harris is predicted to lie through states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Donald Trump is favored in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina according to the forecasts.

The average number of electoral votes expected for Kamala Harris is 277, which aligns with the electoral votes from the mentioned battleground states.

The Race to the White House forecast predicts a slightly higher 289.50 electoral votes for Kamala Harris.

The JHK forecast aligns with others, showing a 57% chance of victory for Kamala Harris with an average of 285 electoral votes.

The 538 forecast also supports the consensus with a 60% chance of victory for Kamala Harris and an average of 276 electoral votes.

Political betting markets, while having some discrepancies, still show a trend favoring Kamala Harris in key battleground states.

The consensus map is building that Kamala Harris will win through the rustbelt region and Nevada, which is consistent across different forecasting models.

The video concludes that if the election were held today, Kamala Harris would be the projected winner with a narrow advantage.

Transcripts

hey guys welcome back to today's video

today is Sunday September 22nd 2024 and

today we are going to be talking about a

variety of different National forecast

for the 2024 presidential election the

forecasts we are going to be looking at

today are The Economist forecast the

head-to-head National 2024 race the race

to the White House forecast Nate

Silver's forecast the 538 forecast and

jhk forecast here an overall uh an

overall network of forecasts that have

come in alignment on one consistent

conclusion through a variety of months

of gauging this race looking at polls

looking at fundraising data looking at

fundamentals and one thing they all come

to a conclusion on and that is KLA

Harris is likely to be the next

president of the United States now the

538 forecast is the forecast that has

been the one that we have been studying

the most on this channel they released

their forecasting model quite early on

in the 2024 election season and we've

been tracking it over time now

unfortunately we don't have the

opportunity to look back on those Joe

Biden versus Donald Trump matchup

numbers but they also did come into

alignment at different period of time

but 538 forecast was the one that was

pretty consistently and pretty adamant

that Joe Biden had a higher chance of

Victory than some people might have

suggested But ultimately that's not what

we're focused on here what we are

focused on right now is an alignment

that is coming to a conclusion of very

similar chances and odds across routine

Battleground States based on similar

numbers similar data points but

different ways of modeling and

forecasting an election that again come

to the same conclusion that might reveal

a lot about the current state of the

race so just going through these

forecasts I want to go one by one to

just take a look at the national

headlines what are they saying in the

head-to-head forecast we'll get into

some of the Statewide numbers some of

the more important nitty-gritty stuff

but right now what I'm focused on is

this Harris versus Trump number as to

who thinks you know who's going to win

and by what margin now let's start off

with the economist you just saw 5day but

we'll get back to that in just a moment

The Economist here has roughly a 60%

chance for kamla Harris to win the

presidency largely in line with what

we've been seeing so far but let's see

how much that Stacks up against other

forecasting models Donald Trump at just

a two and five chance or 40% Nationwide

the race to the White House forecast

roughly similar 61% chance for KLA

Harris and a 39% chance for Donald Trump

on the national forecast on 538 60 to 40

very similar to the two most recent ones

we looked at again race to the White

House and the economist then taking a

look at jhk forecast 57% to 43% rounding

up to 60 roughly even with that of

previous forecasting models and then

comes in Nate silver which still shows

Kell Harris with a 54% Chance of

electoral Victory Donald Trump at

46% so as I was saying the models here

are pretty consistent they show Comm

Harris with the upper hand over former

president Trump and while there's a high

end on one end when you could see on the

race to the White House at 61% and on

the low end 54% it all hovers around the

idea and again that similar conclusion

that KLA Harris will be the next

president of the United States but while

National headlines and National numbers

are something that I think are always

really important to look at I am so

interested in where each forecasting

model thinks the Pathway to Victory

really lies for both of these candidates

now the unfortunate thing about Nate

Silver's model is that you have to pay

to take a look at some of their

Statewide models here it's an

unfortunate reality but it really just

is what you have to do when you're no

longer associated with 538 or a major

News Network right it makes sense right

Nate silver is not doing this thing for

free and so it makes sense that he's

putting a pay wall behind it with that

being said I don't have the odds on hand

to take a look at some of these

Battleground States but what I do

remember what I do remember is that the

better forming States for KLA Harris

come in at States like Michigan come in

at States like Pennsylvania and

Wisconsin and if she was to have that

Electoral College Victory the pathway

does not lie through Georgia does not

lie through Arizona does not lie through

North Carolina and so I think this is

really where we've seen KLA Harris at a

really strong position on the Nate Sil

forecast but I also think it's still

valuable to take a look at the four

other forecasts here that are nearly as

reputable if not as reputable as the N

silver forecast that can again dive us

deep a little bit more into

understanding about some of these

Battleground States and how they might

be predicted to vote and so we're going

to go through all the swing States first

on the economist just as we have been so

far in the state of Michigan the

expectations for KL Harris is that she

wins by two and that she has a 60%

chance of winning here Michigan actually

has been running roughly even with that

of the national average uh for KLA

Harris as you can continue through we

can get through some other uh

Battleground States we go over to a

state like Nevada KLA Harris is roughly

a 60% chance of winning there the state

of Wisconsin a 60% chance of winning

there in Pennsylvania just a 51% chance

of winning here here very very narrow in

comparison uh to where it was before um

not even back in 2020 is that where it

was before in Arizona Donald Trump has a

60% chance of winning and in Georgia a

60% chance of winning and in North

Carolina a 60% chance of winning as well

and so the odds and expectations here uh

for uh Donald Trump have you know been

quite high in States like North Carolina

quite high in States like Georgia quite

high in States like Arizona and while we

have absolutely seen a narrowing I mean

you can even see it here from September

12th what was a 64 % uh 64% chance for

Donald Trump right after the debate

tanked to 53% recently now hovered right

back up to 5 uh 6% it's a close race in

Arizona But ultimately Donald Trump has

lost ground but ultimately K Harris has

made some improvements you can see here

in terms of the chance of winning that K

Harris went from being in the negatives

right up until the debate to being in

the positives on The Economist forecast

Wisconsin is a similar story where KLA

Harris is at a higher point now than she

was before the debate Nevada similar

story too she was actually losing right

up up around the debate all of a sudden

surged terms of expectation and Michigan

very similar where she was at a lower

point before the debate now at her

highest point ever in the campaign

season and so why I think this matters

is because it shows that the pathway to

the victory for kamla Harris is very

similar to that of Nate Silver's model

in that it relies on Nevada Michigan

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and that

Donald Trump is the favorite in Arizona

Georgia and North Carolina and I also

think too the reason why this matters is

because in terms of the average number

of electoral votes that KLA Harris is

expected to win 277 is actually roughly

in line with exactly what those

Battleground States would give Klay

Harris I mean this isn't just an

arbitrary number this is truly the

average because that is what the you

know aggregate is giving us based on the

odds in every Battleground State and so

277 is roughly on par on par with what

we can expect to see in an electral map

if the economist ends up being correct

and so as was saying when Nate over same

exact result here this uh 54% chance of

Victory predicts to roughly

279 electoral votes for KLA Harris

roughly even with that 276 number that

those Battleground States would entail

should she win them in its entirety and

so where are we at The Economist and

Nate silver roughly in alignment on that

as well and the race of the White House

forecast isn't that different either

Michigan is a state that K Harris would

have a 71% chance of winning and

Pennsylvania a 66% chance of winning

Wisconsin a 65% chance of winning Nevada

a 65% chance of winning but when it

comes down to other states like North

Carolina Donald Trump holds the upper

hand

54% Georgia Donald Trump holds the upper

hand

55% Arizona Donald Trump holds the upper

hand 51% and while the margins here are

certainly very narrow right Arizona is

down to just 0.06% meaning less than a

tenth of a percentage you're talking

just less than 5,000 votes across 2

million plus cast in that state Arizona

is very much a tossup with Donald Trump

leaning in Georgia the margin here is

expected to be just as narrow as it was

in 2020 but Donald Trump in the

advantage North Carolina expected to be

narrower than Georgia but Donald Trump

still in the advantage and so what this

electoral map looks like again is very

similar except the projection in terms

of electoral votes for KLA Harris is

slightly higher

289.50 electoral votes which would give

her maybe a state like Arizona or

Georgia that would boost her up there

but ultimately based on where she is the

favorite to win across the country her

States would give her

277 electoral vote 276 electoral votes

in this election which right now means

race to the White House The Economist

and Nate silver are aligned on this

forecast as well and jhk forecast is

also a reputable site to that takes a

look deep at some of these Battleground

States and as you might have expected

the story is very very similar Wisconsin

KLA Harris 56% chance of winning

Michigan 64 Pennsylvania 58 Nevada 56

but Arizona Trump holds the upper hand

Georgia Trump North Carolina Trump final

map here 57% chance of odds for com

Harris average number of electoral votes

285 to 253 and based on these numbers if

you were to just throw them on what you

would find is

276 an electoral college victory for KLA

Harris but again roughly in line with

what everybody else is saying and then

we can take a look the one that we have

been studying for the longest time on

this channel and that is the 538

forecast which shows KLA Harris with a

60% chance of winning against the former

president and what do we see on this win

probability in the battle Battleground

States you guessed it Pennsylvania 58%

chance for KLA Harris Michigan 64%

chance for KLA Harris Wisconsin 61%

chance for KLA Harris Nevada 57% chance

for KLA Harris but when it comes down to

North Carolina they're even in Georgia

they're even and in Arizona they're even

Trump holds the narrow upper hand in

Georgia and Arizona ultimately the

Pathway to Victory for KLA Harris lies

in the same same exact states that it

lies in on every other forecast

Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and

Nevada bringing us to an average of a

forecast here of KLA Harris receiving

276 electoral votes the average here

though because they're saying that in a

50-50 chance chances are she wins

Georgia or North Carolina or Arizona

which would push her up there same thing

with many of these other models at the

end of the day things are consistent

here and that the pathway to the victory

for for KLA Harris right now lies

through those specific Battleground

states that I just mentioned and in

terms of the political betting markets

which I know we didn't say we would talk

about too heavily and we're not going to

spend too much time talking about them

but they do also tell a story that is

worth listening to even slightly and

that is a forecast map that has actually

changed quite tremendously over the past

month and a half K Harris went from a

point when she was first announced as

the Democratic nominee to be uh you know

the next president of the United States

she went from a 29% chance to roughly

37% Donald Trump still very much had the

upper hand and we saw that when she

officially won the nomination and around

the time of the convention she was only

at 47% compared to today and the trend

lines weren't super great she was

increasing but then she was decreasing

and then up until now she's now reached

her higher point over the past month and

a point that is likely to continue to

increase based on some of these data

points we've been seeing out of

battleground states that have really

shown good results for kamla Harris but

in terms of the Electoral forecast I

think you might find this interesting as

well they said an actually shows k

Harris with just a two-point Advantage a

little bit less than what some of the

other states are showing Arizona though

shows Donald Trump with a 61% Chance

Georgia with a 58% chance North Carolina

with a 56% chance now poly Market leans

a little bit to the right they far

overestimate the odds and chances of

Republican candidates of winning in

Battleground Senate races Battleground

house races Battleground gorial races I

mean even at different points in time

back in mid July they had Mark Robinson

you might recognize his name because of

the scandals that have been plaguing his

candidacy for uh the past few uh few

days but he had a 40% chance of winning

in July 45% chance of winning his chance

of winning today is less than 10% and

really anyone could have told you that

we knew that many of these things were

going to be become more popular and more

known across the state but many people

didn't listen because a lot of people

who do invest in these sites again do

try to put aside their own personal

biases but poly Market I have noticed

leans a little bit to the right when it

comes down to this and is tracked

actively by many right-wing Act which

makes sense that you know when you look

at other sites like predict it they are

far more reasonable and end up being a

little bit more accurate than many of

the other sites here and I'm not here to

raw dog on poly Market but I am going to

say I do notice some things when it

comes down to moments that really don't

make sense as improvements uh for Donald

Trump for instance on debate night his

odds went up and everybody knows that's

what the rightwing was promising oh he

went up he went up he went up every poll

and every data point said he went down

he went down he went down and piling

market now is getting back to reality

here but back to that point even in this

scenario where it's a little bit more

favored towards Republicans guess what

it's finding us it's finding us that

Wisconsin is Comm Harris ahead Nevada

already said had Comm Harris ahead

Michigan has C Harris ahead and so does

the state of Pennsylvania what does that

look like on an electoral map if she's

losing every other state you guess it

say it with me

276 electoral votes for the White House

Donald Trump would not win re-election

and it would be a point to that would

show KLA Harris in the narrowest

narrowest of victories in terms of what

could be good for KLA Harris's campaign

but still a victory is a victory and so

what I think we can take away from a lot

of these different metric points despite

the models taking in similar data they

all try to analyze and understand

elections very differently and in many

cases they do so accurately but a lot of

forecasts and many of these forecasts

rarely ever do coincide to a point where

they are nearly spoton in terms of what

states they expect KL Harris to win

spoton in terms of you know how they win

uh the fact is we are seeing an

alignment of these forecasting models

that is very very clear I mean it is

something that I really can't separate

from because I don't even think that

we're at a point where they are

disagreeing with us at really any of the

reputable polling or major prediction

firms and the consensus map is building

the consensus map is building that K

Harris wins the White House through the

rustbelt region and through Nevada the

consensus is building that across all of

these different sites people with

different backgrounds people with

different experiences people with

different models people with different

funders and you know whatever it might

be all of them all of them arrive at the

same conclusion one that Comm Harris

wins the presidency the second

conclusion is that she wins the

presidency through a unique electoral

pathway that relies on the blue wall

staying the blue wall in the state of

Nevada reverting to its electoral

history and electoral path of being a

pretty strong Democratic State

Republicans haven't won in on the

presidential level since 2004 not even

Donald Trump in 2016 had enough

enthusiasm and a shock factor that he

was able to shift the state of Nevada

didn't shift that much from Barack Obama

and between 2016 and 2020 stayed roughly

even for that of the democratic party

something that likely contributes to the

models forecasting across of them that

say that KLA Harris has the upper hand

in Nevada ultimately I think that this

map is the most probable one today I

think North Carolina is a bit more iffy

than we let on especially with Mark

Robinson in the fry But ultimately these

forecasting models give us a very

similar conclusion for a variety of

different reasons and I think they're

right the K Harris has the narrow up her

hand this race is still very much a

tossup but if the election was held

today I'd call her the winner and I

think she'd win these three states

Nevada and I'd still throw in North

Carolina but only by a very very narrow

margin beyond that right now KLA Harris

is in a position where she can expand on

states that Biden W in 2020 might lose

some states that Biden won in 2020

ultimately though she still maintains

that very narrow advantage that puts her

as the victor of this year's

presidential election so thank you guys

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videos again thank you guys so much for

watching and I will see you all tomorrow