FiveThirtyEight: Kamala Harris Receives BIG Debate BUMP
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host analyzes the 2024 presidential election forecast following the first and only debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The debate has tightened the race, with Harris now leading in the polls and receiving a significant post-debate fundraising boost. The discussion highlights key battleground states, the importance of financial support in the election, and the potential impact of the debate on down-ballot races.
Takeaways
- π Today's date is Saturday, September 14th, 2024, and the video discusses the 2024 presidential election forecast.
- π The forecast is analyzed 5 days after the only presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
- π Initially, Kamala Harris had a 60% lead, but it tightened to a 55% chance of victory nationwide after the debate.
- πΌ Despite the tight race, Harris is showing significant improvement in battleground states compared to President Joe Biden's performance.
- π Post-debate, national polls from Morning Consult, Reuters, and Ipsos indicate an expansion of Harris's lead, with no national poll showing Trump in the lead.
- π° Harris raised $47 million following the debate, a substantial sum contributing to the Democrats' already substantial war chest.
- π¦ Political betting markets have shifted in favor of Harris, positioning her as the favorite against Trump.
- πΊοΈ The 538 forecast currently places Harris at a 60% chance of victory, a significant advantage, especially in light of historical data.
- π The debate appears to have given Harris a 'bump', improving her odds in key battleground states and setting her up for a potential victory in the election.
- π¬ The media narrative and public perception seem to be favoring Harris, with the debate performance influencing voter sentiment and financial contributions.
Q & A
What is the date mentioned in the video script?
-The date mentioned in the video script is Saturday, September 14th, 2024.
Who are the two candidates participating in the presidential debate?
-The two candidates participating in the presidential debate are Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
What was Kamala Harris's initial forecast by 538 before the debate?
-Initially, 538 had Kamala Harris losing against Donald Trump. However, as they got closer to the Democratic Convention and the first presidential debate, she maintained a lead nationwide.
What was the approximate nationwide victory chance for Kamala Harris just before the debate?
-Just before the debate, 538 had Kamala Harris's nationwide victory chance at 55%.
How much money did Kamala Harris raise after the first and only presidential debate?
-Kamala Harris raised $47 million after the first and only presidential debate.
What is the significance of the $47 million raised by Kamala Harris?
-The $47 million raised is significant because it adds to the Democrats' already substantial war chest, giving them a substantial financial advantage with just two months left to the election.
What was the impact of the debate on Kamala Harris's odds according to 538?
-The debate had a positive impact on Kamala Harris's odds. After the debate, she saw an increase to a 60% chance of nationwide victory, up from 54% before the debate.
Which states are considered battleground states in the 2024 presidential election mentioned in the script?
-The battleground states mentioned in the script are North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
What is the 'magic number' of electoral votes needed to win the presidency?
-The 'magic number' of electoral votes needed to win the presidency is 270.
How does the script suggest the Democratic party is approaching the election strategy?
-The script suggests that the Democratic party, with Kamala Harris, is focusing on a seven-state strategy, investing heavily in battleground states, and raising substantial funds to secure victory.
What is the role of the debate performance in shaping the election narrative according to the script?
-The debate performance is seen as pivotal in shaping the election narrative. Kamala Harris's performance is credited with halting negative momentum and expanding her lead, which is reflected in the polls and the forecast by 538.
Outlines
π³οΈ 2024 Presidential Election Forecast and Debate Impact
The video discusses the 2024 presidential election forecast following the only debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Initially, Harris had a 60% lead, but it tightened to 55% just a week before the debate. The debate seems to have given Harris a boost, with new polls showing her expanding her national lead. Financially, Harris raised $47 million after the debate, which, combined with the Democratic party's significant war chest, puts her in a strong position. The political betting markets have also shifted in her favor. The forecast now gives Harris a nearly 20% lead over Trump, which, while not guaranteeing victory, puts her closer to the necessary 270 electoral votes. Key battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are showing positive shifts towards Harris, which could be crucial in the election outcome.
π Shifts in Polls and Strategic Campaigning
This paragraph delves into the shifts in polls post-debate, highlighting how Vice President Kamala Harris's numbers have improved, particularly in battleground states like Georgia, which could be pivotal in the election. It contrasts the initial advantage Donald Trump had with the current trend favoring Harris. The discussion emphasizes the importance of strategic campaigning, including where to spend money and rally, to win an election. The paragraph also touches on the media narrative and the Democrats' strategy to capitalize on Trump's decision not to participate in future debates, potentially giving Harris an upper hand in the final stretch of the campaign.
π° The Role of Funding in Shaping the Election
The video segment underscores the critical role of campaign funding, illustrating how Kamala Harris's campaign is leveraging its financial advantage to flood battleground states with advertisements and resources. With over $250 million spent in key states, Harris's campaign is outpacing Trump's in terms of organization and fundraising. The strategy is to solidify support in states that are crucial for the electoral vote while not neglecting the base. The paragraph also discusses how the money is being allocated to ensure Harris's message reaches the right demographics and how this financial edge could influence the election's outcome.
π Post-Debate Momentum and Path to Victory
In the final paragraph, the video reflects on the post-debate momentum and how it has solidified Kamala Harris's path to victory. It discusses the importance of every small advantage in a closely contested election and how Harris's debate performance has halted any decline in her momentum. The paragraph also speculates on the potential electoral map outcomes, suggesting that if the election were held today, Harris could win with a significant number of electoral votes. It concludes by emphasizing the importance of the debate in shaping the race and how every strategic move, including where to invest resources, can make a difference in the final results.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Presidential Election Forecast
π‘Debate Bump
π‘538
π‘Battleground States
π‘Fundraising
π‘Political Betting Markets
π‘Electoral Votes
π‘Favorability Rating
π‘Rallies
π‘Media Narrative
Highlights
2024 presidential election forecast from 538 shows a tightening race.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump had the first and only presidential debate.
Harris was at 60% a few weeks ago, but the odds have been tightening.
538 initially had Harris losing against Trump, but she maintained a nationwide lead.
A week before the debate, Harris's chances of victory nationwide were at 55%.
The debate has had a significant impact on the election forecast.
Harris is gaining support in battleground states compared to President Joe Biden.
Post-debate, Harris raised $47 million, a substantial sum with two months left in the election.
Political betting markets have started to favor Harris.
Harris is showing a clear advantage in the 538 forecast with a 60 to 40 split.
Battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are turning in favor of Harris.
Harris's campaign is strategically investing in key battleground states.
Harris's favorability rating has rebounded since becoming the Democratic nominee.
The debate bump for Harris has been significant, increasing her odds to 60%.
Harris's campaign is outspending and outpacing Trump's campaign in key states.
Harris's campaign has a seven-state strategy to win the election.
Harris's debate performance has halted any conversation around her momentum ending.
The election is close, but every little moment matters in a presidential election.
Transcripts
welcome back to today's video today is
Saturday September 14th 2024 and today
we are going to be talking about the
2024 presidential election forecast from
538 5 days after the first and only
presidential debate between vice
president kamla Harris and former
president Donald Trump this presidential
debate comes at a time where both sides
of the aisle have been in a very
competitive presidential election the
odds have been tightening over the past
two weeks and it has come to a point
where any and all impacts on the left
wing on the right wing have started to
change the trory of the race in one
candidate's favor over the other now K
Harris had been at 60% roughly 3 to 4
weeks ago she had been riding high and
had been graining in terms of the
overall forecast 538 initially had her
losing against Donald Trump when she
first became the presumptive and then
the eventual nomin for the Democratic
party but as we got closer to the
Democratic Convention and as we got
closer to that first presidential debate
she had maintained a lead Nationwide but
just around a week ago in fact less than
on Monday evening 538 had KLA Harris at
just a 55% chance a victory Nationwide
now you might be thinking 5% really
doesn't make a difference but in an
election as close as this one it
absolutely does and what we've started
to see is that this impact in terms of K
Harris gaining and support isn't
necessarily saying that she's here to
completely run off the map but she is in
fact doing better tremendously better in
some of these Battleground States
especially compared to that of President
Joe Biden Across the Nation and so 538
forecast what I really want to unpack
here is the impact of this presidential
debate as we've started to see new major
headlines and in terms of national polls
from the morning consult and Reuters and
ipsos that are showing KLA Harris
expanding her National lead not a single
poll released nationally over the past
four days that has been conducted post
debate has shown Donald Trump in the
advantage over KLA Harris and in a
number of battleground State polls to
what are we finding KLA Harris is
starting to to do better and so it isn't
just that either right the polls are one
thing the other big part of elections
are finances and KLA Harris raising $47
million after the first and only
presidential debate this is a huge sum
of money with just two months to go in
the election when Democrats are already
sitting on a war chest of half a billion
dollars not to mention that the
political betting markets have started
to change in favor of KL Harris today
she stands as the favorite over Donald
Trump despite being uh in the losing
category for the past month on the poly
Market forecast and so overall here what
we have found is that KLA Harris is in
fact receiving a debate bump while it
isn't something that would say KLA
Harris has guaranteed the presidency it
puts her closer to matching uh that
magic number of 270 whereas previously
it looked a little bit more difficult to
get to so I want to unpack the 538
forecast here showing KLA Harris with
nearly a 20% Delta between her and the
former president 60 to 40 is arguably a
position that Democrats would have
killed for a year ago and are probably
very happy that they're at this point
now but it's still not a point of
complacency but 60 to 40 does in fact
show a clear Advantage for one political
party over the other and in this case
that political party of course is the
Democratic party and we can take a look
too looking at the forecast over time
right up until this presidential debate
September 10th was debate day KLA Harris
was at 54% in terms of her odds
Nationwide and so in the immediate
aftermath of the debate it didn't look
like at least we were on track for an
uptick until New debate numbers so
showed differently the day after the
presidential debate her numbers stayed
roughly the same on the 12th they stayed
roughly the same but then our two new
sets of national polls came out showing
KLA Harris in a better position some new
Statewide polls and now today she has
inched up to a 60% chance of Victory
this November election and like I was
saying this has been driven by some
Battleground states that have
historically been very positive for the
Republican Party States like North
Carolina and Georgia and Arizona that
have started to Titan in a positive way
for KLA Harris and put her in a really
strong position when it comes down to
these Battleground States not to mention
States like Wisconsin showing her at a
64% chance of Victory States like
Michigan showing at a 61% chance of
Victory States like Pennsylvania showing
her a 56% chance of Victory because when
you take a look at some of these other
states Nevada for instance has KLA
Harris at 55 to 45 Arizona for instance
has her tied with Donald Trump 50 to
5050 Georgia has K Harris up narrowly 51
to 49 and North Carolina state that
Democrats really really want has her
tide against Donald Trump the overall
electoral map here and the math here is
strong for Democrats especially given
that this Advantage has now started to
increase right what it would look like
translating to an actual electoral map I
mean you're looking more at something
like this right taking away uh not even
taking away we haven't even given it yet
but not including Arizona which was a
Biden state in 2020 but if you include
Georgia and the State of Arizona I mean
chances are Democrats are set in this
election right they're at 292 electoral
votes uh give them Nevada give them
Colorado give them New Mexico give them
Georgia they're at 292 electoral votes
more than the magic number of 270 even
if you take away a state like Georgia
for instance Democrats still maintain at
276 and so Democrats really aren't in a
position where uh you know they're
losing nationally with the current 538
forecast and so a good example of this
would be a state like for instance that
prior to the debate Donald Trump was not
necessarily what I would call the Clear
favorite but was still in the advantage
right when you take a look at her
numbers now KLA Harris is at 51% but
right up until that debate the numbers
started to turn away from KLA Harris in
fact they're roughly at the highest
point they've ever been on the 538
forecast because from the beginning
Donald Trump has been in the advantage
on the moment they started tracking
these data points Donald Trump had a 59%
chance of Victory and you can see that
over time it started to Chip and Chip
and Chip and K Harris started to get
into a better position but even up until
that debate Donald Trump had a 54%
chance of Victory KLA Harris had just
46% across the state so Democrats now
with KLA Harris being in the advantage
in Georgia really only have the debate
to thank for that there hasn't been some
type of massive Reckoning on the
national scale as to uh you know who's
supporting Who besides the fact that
there are voters in the swayable states
that are changing their minds after
seeing KLA Harris's debate performance
not to mention that the national numbers
of course impact some of these down
ballot races if comml Harris tomorrow
was to win the national popular vote by
nine points she's winning Georgia and a
whole lot of other states if it's a
onepoint Advantage chances are she's
losing Georgia and a whole lot of other
states and so when you start to see
kamla Harris have a impact and a
positive one nationally it does
translate to down ballot residual
effects or uh swing state residual
effects where KLA Harris is starting to
do better and so I think this is
something that we have seen roughly
across the country right Arizona is now
50-50 whereas Donald Trump was in the
advantage North Carolina is 50-50
whereas Donald Trump was in the
advantage and the key Point here is the
word was because it is at this point
comml Harris at a 60 to 40 advantage
that puts her well within a reasonable
chance at winning almost all of these
Battleground States if she can do
everything correctly it's going to be
close and this feels a lot more like the
2012 election in terms of how close the
poll makes it actually feel but we will
see what the actual result ends up being
on Election night because it could feel
a lot like 2020 where we're waiting for
days for polls to be counted or for
votes to be counted or we waiting on
absentee ballots or waiting whatever it
might be we are in for the long run here
in this ction and things might not be
immediately clear because of how
competitive it is but the good news for
KLA Harris is that she is coming into
this after this debate using it to her
Advantage I mean think about the media
narrative and the media coverage so far
of Donald Trump since he decided that
he's not going to be running uh not
rather not going to running not going to
be debating any future debates right and
so the mainstream media has picked that
up the Democrats have started to turn
this into a Donald Trump's scared type
of moment they're even trying to bait
him back into a second debate trying to
uh poke and prod at his ego it might not
work it might work though we don't
really know what's going to happen with
that part but Donald Trump probably
isn't debating again which is good news
for KLA Harris because it means that he
has no real opportunity with all eyes on
him no re opportunity with you know a
focus on his candidacy or any of his
ideas or anything that he can say
directly to the people because between
now and election day it is nearly just
all crunch time it's about visiting
state to state to state to state to
Rally to Rally to Rally to Rally to
voter to voter to voter to voter to door
to door to door to door to election day
and so that's how it's going to be it's
going to be as fast-paced as I said it
because that's where we are this
election is so close to being over that
any type of bump in the scale here
benefiting KLA Harris is something that
will have an impact on this election
whether Republicans like it or not and
this debate was in fact that and so I
think we've seen a lot of the Republican
and the mainstream media from the
rightwing say that this has had no
positive impact for KL Harris that
nobody cares about this debate but what
we are seeing here in terms of the data
is in fact that there is a positive
impact now I touched briefly on the
betting markets and the money that KLA
Harris raised in the aftermath of the
debate and I have to say this right we
talked about how she raised $47 million
earlier on in this video but at the same
time we do need to understand that this
election has become so exceptionally
expensive I mean we saw that Forbes
before the 2024 election season got into
full gear we saw this last year I
covered it in 2023 they were projecting
you know billions of dollars being spent
across many many election races and
typically speaking right both candidates
in 2020 combined raised around a billion
dollars just off of Grassroots
organizing and small dollar donations
and so it was at that time that we
started to realize that this was at a
point of no return the amount of money
in politics was in fact going to be the
most important and driving factor of the
presidential race and for KLA Harris
she's winning that battle $47 million
after the debate matters right 47
million to spend in just seven
Battleground States when the Biden swing
state strategy from 2020 contained 10 11
12 Battleground States the Comm haris
campaign is investing in the states that
they need to invest in and focusing on
the states they need to focus on they
aren't using their money to spend in
states that don't make sense right
Donald Trump announcing just two days
ago that he's holding another rally in
the state of New York City I sorry in
the state of New York specifically in
New York City I mean we are at a point
where the Trump campaign isn't holding
as many rallies as KLA Harris or Tim
Walls whereas the Donald Trump campaign
sorry where it's the Comm Harris
campaign they're doing a significant
number of stops but they're also
investing in the states right when
Donald Trump goes to some of these
rallies like he did one in New Jersey
and he did another one in Bronx now he's
doing another one in New York City these
are things that don't help your
candidacy right voters in Pennsylvania
are not to in to your New York city
Rally they're not going to your New York
city Rally they're not making it up out
of the state it is important to note
that it is the most influential thing as
to where you spend your money in a
presidential Congressional gubernatorial
whatever it might be any race in
American politics where you spend your
money is how you win an election and so
for KLA Harris their campaign team seems
to be very tapped into the fact that
because they have so much money they can
really flood the airwaves in these
Battleground States they can expand the
number of field offices in States like
Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Arizona
Georgia North Carolina and Nevada the
seven states that they are slated
starting after Labor Day they have
already started to spend over $250
million a quarter of a billion dollars
in advertisement spending on these
Battleground States they are drowning
Donald Trump in cash they are drowning
Donald Trump's campaign by outspending
and outpacing and out organizing and out
fundraising they are at a point too
where because of all the money they
raised up until that Democratic
Convention they could easily make it to
November without running out of money
even by investing in all of the states
they need to invest in so KLA Harris not
only now is building up where she is for
this election but potentially for a
future one I don't imagine there will be
that much money raised after the 2024
election but all I can say is this the
money that is being spent now and will
continue to be spent is being spent in
the states that matter KLA Harris's
campaign team knows where to invest and
it looks like they're using that seven
State strategy to win the election and I
genuinely believe it when I mean when I
say this that I believe it's going to
pay off based on where we are right now
based on what we've seen and how the
Democratic party has taken this debate
and boosted their odds at winning
nationally right taking the way that
Democrats have taken where they were in
some of these swing States and boosted
their odds in those and so what I think
has been just really really clear over
the past 6 months is that the Biden
Harris campaign turning into a Harris
walls campaign they knew what they were
doing they at least knew how to invest
their money and they knew how to raise
the money was the candidate at the top
of the ticket the person that was going
to bring them over the Finish Line with
Biden Harris chances are no that's why
Biden dropped out of the race but KLA
Harris very seemingly much can do it and
that's why you're starting to see people
when they watch her on the debate stage
when they watch her interact with former
president Trump when they watch her just
generally speaking at rallies right on
advertisements online they take a liking
to her we've seen her favorability
rating completely rebound ever since she
became the Democratic nominee right just
right before uh we saw the swap out
right around the time of July 15th we
saw that Donald Trump had a higher
favorability rating than that of KLA
Harris today that is absolutely not the
case in fact what we did see right
before she became the Democratic nominee
for president and was endorsed by Joe
Biden when he dropped out of the race
was that she hit one of her lowest
favorability ratings in the entire
history of her vice presidency so three
and a half years hitting almost her
lowest point right before she became the
Democratic nominee and now today she is
nearly tied even with her unfavorability
rating and favorability rating she was
down 15 20 points today she has narrowed
that up and that only happens because
the candidate at the top of the ticket
has a campaign team that knows how to
campaign that only happens when the
person at the top of the ticket receives
the support necessary to get across the
finish line or get exceptionally close
this election is no longer about the
less or two evil situation that it
turned into in the Biden versus Trump
matchup voters are inspired on the left
about kamla Harris in a way that they
were not inspired about Hillary Clinton
and in many ways even were not inspired
about Joe Biden in the 2020 election and
when we take a look at the political
betting markets who people believe are
going to win she actually wasn't doing
as well as she is doing today when you
take a look back at the history since
around the time of the democratic
convention around the time of the DNC
she started to see a bump but after that
it really started to dwindle poly Market
started to turn away from K Harris and
she ultimately never reached that
majority back up until today when we saw
her tick back up just actually yesterday
in fact so yesterday and today all
because of what the presidential debate
and when I take a look at the national
forecast with States like Georgia on the
538 forecast and North Carolina Within
Reach Arizona Within Reach it seems to
be a very realistic possibility that
based on what we're seeing in the data
that in this post debate bump should the
election be held today Comm Harris could
win 319 electoral votes that's a
non-insignificant number and that would
be a massive victory for vice president
Harris I mean that would be rewriting
the electoral map from the 2020 election
when Democrats have largely been focused
on playing defense right when we take a
look at those states that Democrats are
investing in with commet Harris it very
much is not taking anything for granted
they're focusing on Wisconsin Michigan
and Pennsylvania all states that Biden
won they're focusing on Arizona Georgia
and Nevada all states that Biden won and
the only swing state they're focusing on
that they lost in the 2020 election is
the state of North Carolina Democrats
aren't heavy investing in States like
Florida or Texas or Ohio or Iowa and in
a perfect world maybe they would be but
they are realizing to meet this moment
they need to solidify their base in
those seven Battleground states that
truly will determine the future of this
nation states like New Hampshire and
Virginia and Minnesota and Colorado and
New Mexico States the Democrats you know
Republicans rather would love to invest
in but aren't investing as much in as in
the seven Battleground States because
Democrats know they're going to win
there and so do Republicans too same
thing with Ohio and Iowa and Florida and
Texas Democrats would love to invest
there but Republicans know they're going
to win there so they don't need to spend
much money there and Democrats know
Republicans are going to win there even
in their perfect scenario they would be
winning there too and so KLA Harris's
debate performance doesn't exactly shake
up the race in a way that means all of a
sudden she has guaranteed the presidency
but what she did on that debate stage
was completely halted any conversation
around her momentum ending but rather
expanded on that momentum that came from
the announcement that came from the VP
announcement that came from the
convention and now is coming from the
debate and she's setting herself up to a
Pathway to Victory where she's gaining
in terms of overall odds her polling
numbers are starting to do better and
while I do believe in around a month I
wouldn't be shocked if we got sets of
polls that showed this race just as
close as it is today because I don't
think we're on track for k Harris to
have a blowout election I still believe
between now and November not much really
is going to change but there is in fact
a benefit of being up 60 to 40 instead
of 51 to 49 and KLA Harris's campaign
and herself will know this very well on
Election Day as the results come in as
we start to see what happens in these
Battleground States as we start to see
who's the eventual winner in the
presidential election because what we
know about our presidential race this
time is sure it absolutely is close but
when you are moving the needle even
slightly it matters when you look at
States like Georgia that would just
decided by 11,000 votes in the 2020
election when you take a look at States
like Arizona that were decided by
roughly a similar amount of electoral
votes when you take a look at States
like Pennsylvania that were decided by
just under a 100,000 votes in a state
with millions of Voters same thing in
Wisconsin same thing in Michigan you
know that every little moment good or
bad matters in a presidential election
and Democrats know that all too well and
so KL Harris right now expanding her
advantage on the National 538 forecast
isn't too much of a shock we saw in the
immediate aftermath that voters did
positively respond to KLA Harris's
debate performance but now we have the
actual quantifying numbers to prove that
the forecast here has improved for KLA
Harris and has set her up for a higher
chance of Victory than she has ever been
in the past two weeks which really goes
to show that this debate while seemingly
marginal on the grand scheme of things
actually does make an impact all in
favor of Vice President Harris so thank
you guys so much for watching this video
make sure to comment down suggestions
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election annalysis videos again thank
you guys so much for watching and I will
see you all tomorrow
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