Bitcoin's Upcoming Halving: What to Expect

Summary

在这段对话中，讨论者们深入探讨了比特币减半事件及其对比特币价格可能产生的影响。他们讨论了比特币的固定供应量、减半机制以及对市场供需平衡的影响。同时，对话者还提出了对中央计划货币的批评，强调比特币作为去中心化价值转移协议的独特性。此外，讨论还涉及了稳定币在全球支付领域的应用，特别是在非洲和拉丁美洲等新兴市场。最后，讨论者对比特币挖矿的可持续性和矿工收入来源进行了阐释，指出交易费用是网络持续运行的关键。

Takeaways

• 📈比特币的总量固定为2100万枚，目前已发行约1900万枚。
• ⏰比特币的发行有一个固定的减半周期，大约每10分钟会有新币发行。
• 🔄减半事件会减少新币的发行量，理论上在需求不变的情况下，可能推高比特币价格。
• 💰市场上并不普遍预期未来会有更高的通货膨胀。
• 📊当前市场上有大量比特币流通，价值约300至400亿美元。
• 💸中央规划的货币体系复杂化了社会运作，政府债务问题普遍存在。
• 🇺🇸美国政府无法违约，也无法偿还所有债务，因此只能通过印制更多货币来应对。
• 🔒比特币是互联网上唯一的物理数字工具，具有全球移动性。
• 💲稳定币因为相对稳定的价值而受到消费者的青睐，尤其是在新兴市场。
• 🌍Strike公司正在全球范围内扩展服务，包括非洲和拉丁美洲，以满足对比特币的需求。
• 🛠️区块链网络能够自我维持，矿工通过交易费用获得收入，比特币协议能够自动调整挖矿难度。

Q & A

比特币的总供应量是多少？

比特币的总供应量是2100万枚。

目前比特币的发行量达到了多少？

目前已经发行了大约1900万枚比特币。

比特币的发行计划是如何安排的？

比特币的发行计划是固定的，由中本聪在比特币推出时编程设定的。

什么是比特币的减半事件？

比特币的减半事件是指比特币的发行计划中，新发行比特币的数量减半的事件。

减半事件对比特币价格有何潜在影响？

如果需求保持不变，而比特币的供应量减半，理论上比特币的价格会上涨。

为什么有人认为比特币是对抗通货膨胀的避风港？

因为比特币的总供应量固定，不会像法定货币那样因为政府发行更多货币而贬值。

中央计划货币对社会的影响是什么？

中央计划货币可能会使社会运作复杂化，并且可能导致政府通过印发更多货币来解决债务问题。

稳定币与比特币有何不同？

稳定币是一种与法定货币或其他资产挂钩的加密货币，而比特币是一种去中心化的、有限供应的加密货币。

为什么消费者更倾向于使用稳定币？

消费者更倾向于使用稳定币，因为它们相对于比特币具有更稳定的价值，对于生活在经济波动较大地区的人们来说，比特币的波动性可能令人望而却步。

Strike公司如何看待比特币在全球支付中的角色？

Strike公司认为比特币是全球唯一的中立价值传输协议，类似于互联网的TCP/IP协议。

Strike公司在非洲和拉丁美洲的业务发展情况如何？

Strike公司已经推出了Strike非洲，并计划接下来在欧洲和拉丁美洲推出服务，致力于提供以比特币为中心的消费体验。

矿工在比特币网络中如何获得收入？

矿工通过收取交易费用来获得收入，比特币协议会自动调整挖矿难度，以维持网络的自我持续性。

Outlines

00:00

🤔 比特币减半事件及其对价格的影响

本段落讨论了比特币减半事件及其对比特币价格可能产生的影响。减半是指比特币发行速度减半的事件，目前比特币已经发行了约1900万，接近其最大供应量2100万。减半会导致比特币的强制卖家数量减半，这些卖家原本需要出售比特币来支付生产成本。如果需求保持不变，供应量减半可能会推动价格上涨。此外，对话中还提出了比特币固定供应量将导致价格上涨的观点，并讨论了通货膨胀和货币政策的问题。

05:01

🌐 比特币作为全球中立价值转移协议

这段对话中，讨论了比特币作为全球唯一的中立价值转移协议的角色。比特币被视为全球唯一的物理数字工具，类似于互联网的TCP/IP协议。尽管比特币具有价值波动性，但消费者更倾向于使用稳定币，因为它们相对于比特币具有更稳定的价值。在非洲和拉丁美洲等新兴市场，由于比特币技术的先进性，以及这些地区消费者对美元价值的认可，比特币和稳定币的结合将成为未来几年支付创新的主要方向。此外，还提到了Strike公司在全球范围内扩展服务的情况，包括在非洲推出服务，并计划在欧洲和拉丁美洲进一步推广。

Keywords

💡减半

比特币的减半是指发行新比特币的速率减半的事件，这是比特币协议的一部分，旨在模仿黄金的稀缺性。减半大约每四年发生一次，直到所有2100万比特币都被挖出。在视频中，讨论减半对比特币价格可能的影响，即如果需求保持不变，而新发行的比特币减少一半，理论上应对价格产生上升压力。

💡固定供应

比特币设计了一个固定的供应量上限，即2100万个比特币，这意味着永远不会有超过这个数量的比特币存在。这个概念是比特币价值主张的核心之一，因为它模仿了有限的自然资源，如黄金。视频中提到，这种固定的供应量与中央银行可以无限制印发法币形成鲜明对比。

💡中央计划货币

中央计划货币指的是由政府或中央银行控制和发行的货币，通常可以无限制地增加供应量。视频中批评了中央计划货币体系，认为它复杂化了社会的内部运作，因为政府可以通过增发货币来贬值债务并为自己配置更多资本。

💡通货膨胀

通货膨胀是指货币购买力下降和商品服务价格普遍上升的经济现象。视频中强调，由于比特币供应量的固定，它可以作为对抗法币（如美元）通货膨胀的工具，因为政府不能像发行法币那样无限制地发行比特币。

💡支付创新

支付创新指的是通过技术改进支付系统的方法，使其更快、更安全或更便利。视频中讨论了利用比特币和稳定币等加密货币进行支付创新，特别是在跨境支付和为那些受到传统银行系统限制的地区提供服务方面。

💡稳定币

稳定币是一种加密货币，旨在保持其市场价值与某种稳定资产（通常是一种法定货币如美元）挂钩。视频中提到，尽管比特币具有巨大的技术优势，但由于其价格波动性，一些消费者更倾向于使用相对稳定价值的稳定币。

💡全球价值转移协议

全球价值转移协议是指一种允许跨境、无摩擦地转移价值的技术或系统。视频中将比特币描述为唯一的中立价值转移协议，意味着它可以作为一种全球性的、去中心化的价值传输方式，没有单一实体控制。

💡挖矿

挖矿是比特币网络维护和事务验证过程的一个环节，通过解决复杂的计算问题以竞争获得新的比特币作为奖励。视频中提到，随着时间的推移，通过挖矿获得的新比特币数量将减少，但挖矿者可以通过收取交易费用来继续获得收入。

💡交易费

在比特币网络中，交易费是指用户为了让自己的交易得到快速处理而支付给挖矿者的费用。视频中强调，尽管新比特币的发行量将逐渐减少，但交易费可以作为挖矿者的另一收入来源，保证比特币网络的长期可持续性。

💡去中心化

去中心化是指减少或消除中央控制权力的过程，使系统、网络或市场更加分散。视频中比特币被描述为一个去中心化的价值传输网络，它不依赖于任何中央机构来维护或控制，这使得它具有独特的韧性和开放性。

Highlights

比特币的固定供应量为2100万，目前全球已发行约1900万。

比特币的发行遵循固定的时间表，每10分钟发行量增加。

比特币减半事件即将到来，这将减少比特币的供应量，可能对价格产生上行影响。

市场对进一步的通货膨胀并不看好，目前没有看到更多的通货膨胀出现。

中央计划货币对社会运作的复杂性，每天的工作都是为了获得货币。

所有政府都存在债务问题，而中央计划的货币使得政府有了第三种选择：印更多的钱。

比特币是互联网上唯一的物理数字工具，是全球移动价值的唯一方式。

稳定币是银行存款的IOU，存在对手方风险，而比特币没有这种风险。

消费者更喜欢稳定币，因为它们相对于比特币的价值更稳定。

比特币技术的前沿性远超其他技术，尤其是在非洲和拉丁美洲。

比特币是全球没有人能够创造更多的东西，是其杀手级应用场景。

比特币的跨境支付将被颠覆，其成本应该大幅降低。

Strike公司正在努力满足非洲和拉丁美洲消费者的需求，提供比特币服务。

未来几年的支付创新将是比特币和稳定币的结合。

Strike公司已经启动了非洲服务，并计划接下来在欧洲和拉丁美洲推出服务。

比特币矿工通过交易费用获得收入，比特币协议能够自我调整，确保网络的可持续性。

比特币价格的增长速度超过了减半的速度，比特币在过去一年中价格上涨超过100%。

Satoshi的初衷是让交易费用来维持网络，人们为获得交易确定性而支付费用。

Transcripts

Just give me your thoughts on the halving.

What's going on? I miss you, brother.

You look good today.

Yeah, of course, man. They're having a huge deal.

So just to be clear, everyone is aware of the fixed supply of Bitcoin.

There were only ever be 21 million, but not all.

21 million have been issued to the world yet.

And so Bitcoin is on a fixed issuance schedule.

Satoshi programmed when he launched he or she or they launched Bitcoin on how

those would be issued out. We're at about 19 million out of 21 so

far, and every 10 minutes more and more get issued.

And the having is when that issuance schedule gets cut in half.

So the supply, the forced sellers, those that pay money to produce bitcoins,

which then have to sell it to pay for their costs, that's going to be halved.

And so the really simple way to think about it is if demand remains the same

and the bitcoin sold gets cut in half, it should have an impact on the price to

the upside. So it's a big event and we're all pretty

excited about it. Jack Let's have a healthy and robust

debate here, but just give me a moment to outline a counterpoint because you've

been in the camp for a while, right? That there is only ever going to be 21

million Bitcoin and so prices have to go up.

That's that's kind of the argument you've made, if you'll just give me

that. And you've talked about in the context

of hyperinflation, don't be holding dollars.

But I would point out that the market doesn't see further inflation, it

doesn't see more inflation to come. And if you allow me, if you look at this

morning's trading in terms of liquidity, I think 30 to $40 billion worth of

Bitcoin was out there in the market. So there are counter points to the

thesis that you've outlined. Is that?

Is that the end of your point? And my point?

Please proceed. Okay.

Yeah. I was trying to be polite.

I mean, let me. Let's dumb it down.

The problem with central planning money, which is such a core technology to

society working. Think about it, Ed.

You go to work every single day and you pour your blood, sweat and tears all of

the time you spend on this planet. In exchange for what?

Money. So the central planning of money

convoluted complicates so much of the inner workings of society.

Let's go back to basics. Our government is in debt, right?

Yes or no? The US government.

That is what All government. All right.

Our government's in debt. Okay.

Traditionally, Ed, if I owed you 20 bucks, I'd have two options.

I'd, one, have to default on that and say, You know what, Ed?

I hope you still consider me a good friend, but I'm not going to make whole

on that $20. The other is, I could pay it back.

Those are classically the two options that anyone in debt has right now.

The government, because they centrally plan and control our currency,

unfortunately has a third and that's that they can print more money, devalue

the debt that they have, and that they owe and allocate more capital to

themselves so our government can't default.

The US, the United States of America cannot default on debt.

It would collapse the entire planet. We also cannot afford to pay it back.

So if you just like, Listen, I didn't even go to college, brother.

This is just 101 basics How the world works.

If we can't default and we can't pay it back, what's the only option that they

have to do no matter what they set and tell you at the Fed chair meetings and

all of the economists. They have to issue more dollars.

And so if there's going to be more pieces of green paper, you want them

competing for the most fixed thing, right?

There's more dollars that are competing for a fixed amount of Bitcoin.

Yes. Real estate's going to go up, too,

because there's more dollars competing for real estate.

But they can make more real estate. They can find more gold.

They can't make any more bitcoins. And that's just I mean, even a college

dropout can understand that. My friend.

Jill, let me jump in and again, just reiterate the your your basic argument

is that they're only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoin.

And that's the finality of that. What am I trying to say?

That supply constraint on that is what will provide upward momentum.

I have many questions for you. I think put your strike CEO hat on and

let's talk about payments. Give me an update on the state of crypto

payments. We've got a lot of questions about this,

about real world adoption, because we kind of over the market mechanics of

Bitcoin Now, I think at this point, what are you seeing out there globally?

I think the biggest I don't know if it's tension, the

biggest story is stablecoins for sure. Here's my personal take.

A Bitcoin is the only neutral value transfer protocol for the world.

We view it at strike as the single value transfer protocol for planet Earth.

Now that sounds like a lot of gobbledygook.

What I actually mean by that is Bitcoin is the only physical digital instrument,

so a stablecoin is just an IOU for a bank deposit.

It's like an innovation to a.c.h. But you have counterparty risk with the

issuer, with regulators, with where the bank deposit is held at that bank.

What if their fractional reserve. So Bitcoin is the only physical

instrument on the internet that we can move globally.

So we view it as the way like it's like the TCP IP, a value transfer for the

web. But the problem, I think is that

consumers around the world prefer stablecoins because of their relative

stable value to Bitcoin. So when you have emerging markets like

in Africa, like Latin America, all through Latin America, they find it

difficult to stomach the volatility. If you're living paycheck to paycheck,

Bitcoin can be an intimidating asset. So where we are spending a lot of our

time is trying to meet the consumer demand.

The Africa of Latin America, where Bitcoin, the technology is just so far

ahead of everything else. But the dollar value is valuable to

consumers in these regions. So I think that's going to be a lot of

the payments innovation over the next few years is the marrying of those two

countries. Just a quick follow up on that.

So geography was one of the other questions that we got.

So, for example, how is the El Salvador HQ going?

Is is one as one example. But you mentioned, I think, Africa and

Latin America. Do you kind of have we only have a few

seconds yet, but do you have a specific list of countries to which you've

actually expanded service? Yeah, we just launched Strike Africa.

I think, listen, every single person on the planet is dealing with fiat

debasement, is dealing with what I explain is the fact that their

government has to issue more of their currency.

So access to Bitcoin is paramount. It's a killer use case because it's the

only thing that no one on the planet can create more of.

And then for payments, we think it's fascinating to disrupt cross-border

payments. I mean, the fact that I can move

something physical like a water bottle or my iPhone from here to Nigeria back

to Bitcoin is crazy, man. The cost should really come down there.

So Africa, we've launched Europe is up next, Latin America.

After that, we're on a warpath to bring a Bitcoin focused consumer experience to

the world. No altcoins and we're doing well.

I'm curious to see where this goes. Jack, I actually have a question for you

in real time through the IP on the Bloomberg terminal.

I'm just going to read it to you, Jack. How can the blockchain sustain itself if

the miners who have valid. Dating the transaction mine less and

less new coins. That's that's a direct question to you

from our audience. Yeah.

So the miners get paid fees, so every single transaction is a fee associated

with it. So miners in theory, collect revenue.

There's been blocks as of recent where the fees actually are more than the

issuance reward. But the Bitcoin protocol also auto

adjusts itself and and the difficulty required to mine blocks changes by how

many people are money as well. So the the protocol is built to sustain

itself. And this is also a problem that is way

out in the future. I think sometimes when people get

stressed out, listen, the bitcoin price is outpacing the halvings, right?

Bitcoin is going up multiples more than the issuance is being have bitcoin's

already up over 100% in the last calendar year.

Right? So I think that this is a anxiety

inducing problem that we may face in 20, 30, 40, 50, 100 years.

But the answer is Satoshi's intention was transaction fees is that people pay

for block space pay to get transaction finality, and that should sustain the

network plenty.