Dampak Jika Kotak Kosong Menang

CNN Indonesia

11 Sept 202404:10

Summary

TLDRThe script discusses the phenomenon of uncontested elections in Indonesia, with several regions, including Surabaya and Pasuruan, facing single-candidate races in the 2024 local elections. If the 'empty box' option wins, a re-election will be held in 2025. Experts believe that political coalitions dominate to protect party interests, especially due to legal issues involving party leaders. The potential shift in leadership under Prabowo Subianto could bring changes, with hopes for fewer uncontested elections and a healthier democracy in Indonesia, untainted by legal manipulation.

Takeaways

📊 There are 41 regions in Indonesia with only one candidate in the 2024 local elections.
🗳️ If 'empty box' wins against the sole candidate, a re-election will be held in 2025 according to the regulations.
📍 Regions in East Java like Surabaya, Pasuruan, Gresik, Ngawi, and Trenggalek are among those with only one candidate.
⚖️ The KPU (General Election Commission) is working on implementing the regulations from Law No. 10 of 2016 regarding re-elections if an 'empty box' wins.
📅 The Constitutional Court's ruling No. 60 allows political parties to nominate candidates with a minimum number of votes, but this has little impact in the 2024 elections.
🤝 Political party coalitions remain a dominant strategy to secure votes, even when running against an 'empty box'.
🔄 Political science expert Abdul Aziz believes there will be fewer 'empty box' victories in the future due to upcoming leadership changes.
👥 Many political parties form large coalitions to avoid opposition and secure funding sources from businesses and government.
🔒 Some party leaders are entangled in legal cases, limiting their ability to maneuver politically, thus seeking safety in large coalitions.
🔄 Aziz hopes that under new leadership, political parties will have more freedom in nominating candidates without being constrained by legal threats, fostering healthier democracy.

Q & A

What does 'kota kosong' mean in the context of the script?
-'Kota kosong' refers to an election situation where there is only one candidate running, and the option to vote for 'no candidate' or an empty box is available.
How many regions in Indonesia are facing elections with only one candidate?
-According to the data from the KPU RI, as of September 4, 2024, there are 41 regions across Indonesia where only one candidate is running.
Which areas in East Java will have elections with only one candidate?
-In East Java, the regions facing elections with only one candidate include Surabaya, Pasuruan, Gresik, Ngawi, and Trenggalek.
What will happen if the 'kota kosong' option wins the election?
-If the 'kota kosong' option wins, the KPU will organize a repeat local election (Pilkada) in the following year, 2025.
What is the role of MK Regulation No. 60 in this context?
-MK Regulation No. 60 allows political parties to nominate candidates independently with a minimum vote threshold, potentially changing the dynamic of political support.
Why do political parties form large coalitions ('koalisi obesitas') according to Abdul Aziz?
-According to Abdul Aziz, political parties form large coalitions to secure themselves because they do not want to be in opposition, which leaves them far from funding sources controlled by businessmen and government figures. Additionally, some party leaders are entangled in legal cases, limiting their ability to maneuver politically.
What might happen in 2025 if 'kota kosong' wins the elections in 2024?
-Abdul Aziz predicts that there will be fewer regions with 'kota kosong' after the repeat elections in 2025, as political dynamics might change and coalitions will adjust.
What impact does Abdul Aziz believe President Joko Widodo has had on legal cases involving political figures?
-Abdul Aziz believes that President Joko Widodo has used legal cases as a means of controlling political opponents, suggesting that many political figures are 'held hostage' by these cases.
How does Abdul Aziz expect the political landscape to change with Prabowo as president?
-Abdul Aziz is optimistic that if Prabowo becomes president, he will not use legal cases to control his opponents, unlike President Joko Widodo, which may lead to a more open and fair political environment.
What does Abdul Aziz hope will improve in Indonesian democracy?
-Abdul Aziz hopes that with fewer political figures being 'held hostage' by legal cases, political parties will have more freedom to choose and nominate regional leaders according to their internal rules, leading to healthier democracy.

Outlines

00:00

📊 The Rise of 'Empty City' Candidates in Indonesian Elections

This paragraph discusses how 41 regions in Indonesia only have a single candidate running in local elections, leading to the concept of 'empty city' elections. If no other candidates run, these regions would have to hold new elections if the 'empty city' option wins. It also mentions that 2025 would be the year of new elections if 'empty city' wins in 2024. KPU (Indonesia's General Elections Commission) is preparing rules to handle such outcomes, with the constitutional court's decision allowing political parties to nominate candidates with a minimum number of votes impacting the overall political dynamics.

🏛️ Political Parties’ Safety Nets Against 'Empty City'

This paragraph highlights the role of political coalitions, which are viewed as the best way to secure votes in elections, despite the presence of 'empty city' scenarios. The author expresses confidence that, if the 'empty city' option wins in 2025, efforts to anticipate such outcomes will be in place. Political parties are seen as key agents of change to eliminate the 'empty city' phenomenon by nominating more candidates.

🎓 Insights from a Political Expert on the 'Empty City' Phenomenon

Abdul Aziz, a political science lecturer, explains two reasons why political parties form large coalitions, referred to as 'obesity coalitions.' First, political parties avoid opposition due to financial dependency on business and political elites. Second, many party leaders face legal issues, making them vulnerable and incentivized to join coalitions to safeguard their positions. Aziz believes that if 'empty city' wins in 2024 and new elections are held, the number of 'empty city' victories will decline, leading to a shift in political power dynamics.

🔄 Potential Political Shift Under New Leadership

Aziz predicts that if Prabowo becomes president, there could be fewer legal threats used against political rivals, unlike during President Joko Widodo's term. This could result in more freedom for political parties to nominate candidates without fear of legal repercussions, leading to a healthier democracy. Aziz is hopeful that with the change in leadership and reduced manipulation of legal cases, political parties will feel freer to operate and choose candidates based on internal party rules.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Kota Kosong

In the context of the video, 'Kota Kosong' refers to a situation where a political candidate runs unopposed in local elections. This term highlights an issue in certain regions of Indonesia where no other candidates contest, leaving voters with only one choice. The video emphasizes how, if 'Kota Kosong' wins against a sole candidate, a re-election will be held, as described under Indonesian election law.

💡Paslon Semata Wayang

'Paslon Semata Wayang' refers to a single candidate or sole pair running in an election without opposition. The term is used to describe the absence of competition in various regions of Indonesia during local elections, including cities like Surabaya and Pasuruan. The presence of only one candidate is viewed as an issue that requires re-evaluation of electoral practices.

💡Pilkada

'Pilkada' is the term for local elections in Indonesia. The script refers to the 2024 Pilkada where certain regions may face elections with only one candidate running, potentially resulting in a 'Kota Kosong' situation. The term is critical as the video discusses the electoral framework and possible re-elections in 2025 if 'Kota Kosong' wins.

💡Peraturan MK Nomor 60

This regulation from the Constitutional Court (MK) allows political parties to nominate their own candidates independently, provided they meet a certain threshold of votes. In the script, it's mentioned as a factor that may influence future elections, giving political parties more freedom to nominate candidates and potentially reducing the dominance of large political coalitions.

💡Koalisi Gemuk

'Koalisi Gemuk' translates to 'obese coalition,' a term used to describe political alliances formed by multiple parties to secure power and avoid opposition. The script suggests that such coalitions have become a safety net for political parties, helping them gain electoral advantage, even when facing a sole candidate or 'Kota Kosong.'

💡Pilkada Ulang

'Pilkada Ulang' refers to a re-election that may occur if 'Kota Kosong' wins. The script explains that if no candidate wins against 'Kota Kosong,' the KPU (General Election Commission) is required to organize a re-election in 2025. This process ensures that local leadership is determined through a competitive electoral process.

💡KPU

KPU, or the General Election Commission of Indonesia, is responsible for overseeing and organizing elections. In the script, the KPU is mentioned in the context of handling 'Kota Kosong' cases and deciding to hold re-elections in 2025 if the situation arises where a sole candidate loses to 'Kota Kosong.'

💡Kasus Hukum

'Kasus Hukum' means legal cases. In the video, it is discussed that many political party leaders are entangled in legal issues, which limits their ability to maneuver freely in political contexts. This is one of the reasons they form large coalitions ('Koalisi Gemuk') to protect themselves from legal vulnerabilities.

💡Parpol

'Parpol' stands for 'Partai Politik,' meaning political parties. The script discusses how political parties in Indonesia form alliances and navigate electoral challenges, particularly in regions with 'Kota Kosong' elections. The video explores the dynamics of party coalitions and their role in the local electoral landscape.

💡Prabowo

Prabowo Subianto is mentioned as a possible future president of Indonesia. The script speculates that if Prabowo becomes president, he may adopt a different approach from President Joko Widodo, especially in terms of handling legal cases involving political opponents. The reference implies hopes for less interference in party politics under his leadership.

Highlights

41 regions across the country have 'empty city' conditions, meaning they only have one candidate pair for local elections.

According to KPU data as of September 4th, there is one province, 35 regencies, and 5 cities in Indonesia facing unopposed candidates.

In East Java, regions like Surabaya City, Pasuruan City, Gresik Regency, Ngawi Regency, and Trenggalek Regency are among those with unopposed candidates.

KPU is working on implementing Article 54D of Law No. 10 of 2016, which mandates a re-election if the 'empty city' wins against the single candidate.

If the 'empty city' wins, KPU plans to hold a re-election in 2025.

The MK Regulation No. 60 allows political parties to propose their own candidates with a minimum number of votes, potentially shifting the support dynamics.

In the 2024 elections, despite the new regulation, large party coalitions remain the best strategy to garner votes against the 'empty city.'

Political scientist Abdul Aziz from Brawijaya University Malang suggests two reasons for the formation of 'obese' party coalitions: fear of being in opposition, and leaders being trapped in legal cases.

Aziz believes that if the 'empty city' wins and re-elections are held, the number of 'empty cities' will significantly decrease.

He expects fewer legal case threats under a new leadership, potentially changing the political landscape.

Aziz hopes the new leadership will not use power to intimidate opposition, as he believes occurred under President Jokowi.

He anticipates more freedom for political parties to nominate local leaders according to internal rules, without external pressure.

The MK Regulation No. 60 aims to reduce the minimum vote threshold for political parties to nominate candidates independently.

Aziz is optimistic that democracy will become healthier with fewer political restrictions and manipulations.

The report ends with hopes for a more balanced political competition in future local elections, avoiding domination by large coalitions.