Soccermatics: how maths explains football | David Sumpter | TEDxUppsalaUniversity

Summary

The speaker recounts a personal journey from a young football enthusiast to a mathematician, exploring the unexpected intersections between the two fields. Despite lacking football talent, the speaker's passion for math led to a career studying animal behavior and social dynamics. The birth of his son, a talented football player, rekindled his interest in the sport, prompting him to delve into the mathematical aspects of football, such as randomness, player positioning, and game strategy. He discovered that mathematics could enhance understanding of the game and even aid in player selection. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the accessibility and joy of mathematics, not as an esoteric discipline but as a tool for gaining insights into the world around us.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker's childhood love for Liverpool Football Club and football in general was not matched by their skill on the field.
• 🧮 A passion for math and computers led the speaker on a journey of academic exploration and collaboration with researchers worldwide.
• 🐜 Studies of animal behavior, such as ants, fish schools, and bird navigation, revealed complex mathematical patterns and behaviors.
• 👏 The speaker investigated the contagious nature of human social behaviors, like clapping, and how groups coordinate their actions.
• 🔄 The speaker's son's football talent and the speaker's own involvement in coaching rekindled their interest in finding a connection between math and football.
• 🤔 The speaker discovered that about two-thirds of a football match's outcome could be attributed to randomness and unpredictability.
• ⚽️ Mathematical models were used to analyze player performance, passing patterns, and the best strategies for scoring goals.
• 📊 Statistical analysis was applied to determine the best strikers in the world and to understand team dynamics through passing networks.
• 🏆 The speaker's research into football strategies and game theory provided insights that could be used by Premier League Scouts and managers.
• 🔢 Mathematics, while present in everything, does not hold all the answers to life's complexities; it offers an edge in understanding and problem-solving.
• 💡 The speaker encourages seeing mathematics as an accessible and enjoyable activity, akin to a friendly game, rather than an exclusive pursuit for geniuses.

Q & A

What was the speaker's passion when he was 10 years old?

The speaker loved football, particularly Liverpool Football Club, and also had a passion for math and computers.

What did the speaker study regarding the mathematics of animal trails?

The speaker studied how small animals like ants can build massive transport networks, how they organize their traffic, and how they collect food.

What insights did the speaker gain from studying fish schools?

The speaker learned how fish schools can escape predators by interacting with just a few nearby neighbors.

How does the speaker describe the mathematical journey he took?

The speaker's mathematical journey involved studying various systems and building mathematical models to help understand them better, leading him to collaborate with researchers worldwide.

What changed the speaker's perspective on the connection between football and mathematics?

The speaker's son Henry's talent in football and his involvement in coaching led him to explore the mathematical aspects of the game.

What mathematical concepts did the speaker find in football?

The speaker found mathematics in football through randomness, vector fields of passing, player forecasts, passing and positioning, shots and goals statistics, passing networks, and game geometry.

How does the speaker relate football to strategy and game theory?

The speaker studied how strategy and game theory can be used to explain the evolution of football strategies and how managers use passing networks to scout the opposition.

What was the speaker's conclusion about the importance of mathematics in football?

The speaker concluded that mathematics provides an edge and a deeper understanding of the game, but it doesn't allow us to understand everything about the complex world of football.

What message does the speaker want to convey to his children and the audience about mathematics?

The speaker wants to convey that mathematics is not just for detached geniuses but is something everyone can and should be doing, like a kickabout with friends.

How does the speaker feel about the limitations of mathematics?

The speaker acknowledges that mathematics can't explain everything and there are many things in the world that we'll never understand, but it gives us a little extra understanding to win more matches than we lose.

What is the speaker's final thought on the role of mathematics in understanding the world?

The speaker believes that while mathematics is present in everything, it doesn't provide the ultimate answer to life's mysteries but offers valuable insights and advantages.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Childhood Passions and Mathematical Adventures

The speaker reminisces about their childhood love for football, specifically for Liverpool Football Club, and their lack of skill in the sport. Despite this, they had a deep interest in mathematics and computers, which led them on a 'wonderful adventure'. They studied various mathematical concepts related to animal behavior and social dynamics, such as the mathematics of ant trails, fish schools, bird navigation, and human applause. These studies took them around the world, collaborating with researchers at prestigious universities. However, they never saw a connection between their love for football and their mathematical research until their son, Henry, showed talent in football, prompting the speaker to explore the mathematical aspects of the sport.

05:01

📚 The Mathematics of Football

The speaker discovered a wealth of mathematical principles within football, starting with randomness and last-minute changes in matches. They analyzed vector fields of player passing, made player forecasts, and discussed these with Premier League Scouts. They also studied passing and positioning to determine the best places for shots and passing combinations. The speaker delved into statistics and probability related to shots and goals, identifying the world's best striker. They examined passing networks to understand team connections and how managers use this information to scout and strategize. The speaker also appreciated the geometric beauty of Barcelona's 2010-2011 team and studied strategy and game theory in football. The speaker's work has led to opportunities to advise Premier League Scouts and analysts, and they humorously expresses a desire to join Liverpool's team, ending with a personal note about their daughter Elise, who is introduced to the speaker's book on the mathematics of football. The speaker concludes by emphasizing that mathematics is for everyone, not just geniuses, and that while it cannot explain everything, it provides an 'edge' in understanding the world.

Keywords

💡Football

Football, also known as soccer in some countries, is a sport played between two teams of eleven players with the objective of scoring by getting the ball into the opponent's goal. In the video, the speaker's love for football, particularly Liverpool Football Club, is a central theme. It's used as a metaphor for life's passions and later connects to the speaker's mathematical explorations, showing how personal interests can intersect with professional pursuits.

💡Liverpool Football Club

Liverpool Football Club is a professional football club based in Liverpool, England. It's mentioned in the script as the speaker's favorite team since childhood, indicating a deep personal connection. This team serves as a symbol of the speaker's enduring love for football and is later linked to the application of mathematical analysis in the sport.

💡Mathematics

Mathematics is the study of numbers, quantities, shapes, and patterns. In the video, the speaker's passion for mathematics is highlighted as a driving force in their academic and professional life. The speaker uses mathematics to analyze various aspects of football, demonstrating how abstract mathematical concepts can be applied to a real-world activity.

💡Randomness

Randomness refers to the lack of pattern or predictability in events. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses how a significant portion of football matches is determined by random events, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of the sport. This concept is used to introduce the idea that even in seemingly chaotic systems, mathematical analysis can provide insights.

💡Vector fields

Vector fields are used in physics to represent quantities that have both magnitude and direction. The speaker mentions using vector fields to analyze the passing patterns of football players, illustrating how mathematical tools can be applied to predict player movements and outcomes in a game.

💡Game Theory

Game Theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with strategic decision-making. The speaker applies game theory to football to understand the strategic evolution of the sport and how teams can optimize their performance. This concept is used to show how mathematics can provide strategic advantages in competitive scenarios.

💡Geometry

Geometry is a branch of mathematics that deals with the properties and relationships of points, lines, surfaces, and solids. The speaker uses geometry to analyze the spatial arrangement of football players on the field, particularly referencing Barcelona's team as creating a beautiful geometric pattern. This demonstrates how geometry can be used to understand and optimize team formations in sports.

💡Statistics and Probability

Statistics and probability are mathematical tools used to analyze data and make predictions. The speaker applies these concepts to football to determine the best strikers and the likelihood of scoring goals, showing how these mathematical fields can be used to evaluate player performance and team strategies.

💡Social Behavior

Social behavior refers to the ways in which individuals interact with one another within a group. The speaker discusses the mathematical analysis of social behaviors, such as clapping, to understand how groups coordinate their actions. This concept is used to draw parallels between collective human behavior and the coordinated actions seen in sports teams.

💡Premier League

The Premier League is the top level of the English football league system. In the video, the speaker mentions working with Premier League Scouts and analysts, indicating the practical application of mathematical models in professional football. This highlights the real-world relevance and impact of the speaker's research.

💡Zlatan Ibrahimovic

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a Swedish professional footballer known for his skill and goal-scoring ability. The speaker references Ibrahimovic's bicycle kick against England to illustrate the application of mathematical analysis to individual player actions. This example shows how mathematics can be used to understand and appreciate the complexity of athletic performance.

Highlights

Passion for Liverpool Football Club and football since childhood.

Love for math and computers led to a career in mathematical research.

Study of the mathematics of animal trails and their organization.

Research on the mathematics of fish schools and their escape strategies.

Investigation of bird navigation and social behavior through mathematical models.

Global collaboration with researchers and universities on mathematical models.

The realization of a connection between football and mathematical research through coaching.

Discovery of mathematics in football, including randomness and player forecasting.

Analysis of vector fields in football passing and their impact on player performance.

Application of mathematical models to help Premier League Scouts select players.

Study of passing and positioning to optimize shooting opportunities in football.

Statistical and probabilistic analysis of shots and goals to identify top strikers.

Examination of passing networks to understand team dynamics and strategies.

Geometric analysis of football games, particularly Barcelona's 2010 team.

Application of game theory to explain the evolution of football strategies.

Mathematical analysis of Zlatan Ibrahimovic's bicycle kick against England.

The increasing presence of mathematicians in Premier League teams for strategic advice.

Mathematics as a universal language and activity, not just for geniuses.

The importance of mathematics in providing an edge in understanding complex systems.

The humility in recognizing the limits of mathematics despite its usefulness.

The final message about the value of mathematics in everyday life and personal growth.

Transcripts

so when I was 10 years old I absolutely

love football and more than that I loved

Liverpool Football

Club this is a picture of me when I was

10 I'm the one with a Liverpool shirt on

the cute one with a Scotland strip

that's my little brother

Colin now while I loved football I

wasn't any good you know that thing

where you're in the school playground

and two people have to pick teams to

play against each other well I was

always the one who was picked

last but there were other things that I

loved when I was 10 years old I really

liked math and I totally loved

computers and those other two passions

they took me on a wonderful

Adventure I studied the mathematics of

Trails showing how these small animals

can build massive transport

networks I looked at the algorithms

behind how they organize their traffic

and how they collect

food I studied the mathematics of fish

schools showing how they can escape as

one from a predator despite just

interacting with a few nearby

neighbors I studied the mathematics of

bird navigation

how they interact with each other follow

each other how they produce consensus

decisions decide where they're going to

fly

together I studied our social behavior I

looked at how clapping was a

contagion how when we coordinate our

Applause after a seminar or after a Ted

seminar like this we can move together

and coordinate in a in a a very

coordinated manner

and this mathematical journey I took has

led me all around the world to

collaborate with lots of different

researchers at different prestigious

universities I have the most amazing job

I get to talk to people about different

systems and then I get to build

mathematical models which help them

understand these systems better but the

football though I never I never

completely gave up on the football I

still played with friends still badly

I um watched on television I went to

matches but I never really saw any

connection between my interest in

football and my interest in research the

friends I had who were interested in

football well they didn't really care

about ants and fish and all the

mathematical models I did so there was

no real connection there but then a

remarkable thing

happened

this this is my son Henry when he was

nine years old he's playing this is a

picture taken from the local newspaper

he's playing against boys twice his size

it turned out that Henry had the talent

which I

lacked

and so did lots of his friends and I

ended up with a bunch of other

enthusiastic dads coaching Henry's team

oala

EF and it was really then that I started

to think again about was there a couple

between mathematics and football when I

was training these players I was trying

to see if there was mathematics behind

it and I found a lot of mathematics in

football I started with Randomness and

last minute changes of Fortune I worked

out that about 2third of a football

match comes down to

Randomness I looked at Vector fields of

passing of players and I could make

player forecasts just like we can make

weather forecasts I talked to Premier

League Scouts about how they could use

these forecasts to pick the players that

were best fit into their

team I studied passing and positioning I

found out the best places to take a shot

from and how to make a passing

combination I studied shots and goals in

terms of statistics and probability and

worked out who was the best striker in

the world

I looked at passing networks how teams

are connected together and managers use

these passing networks to scout out the

opposition find which connections are

are most used and try and break them

down and I studied the geometry of the

game I worked out that Barcelona's team

of

20101 created the most beautiful

geometry ever seen on a football

pitch and I looked strategy and Game

Theory and how they could be used to

explain the evolution the constant

changing evolution of football

strategies and I even studied the

mathematics behind Zlatan

ibrahimovic's incredible bicycle kick

against

England there is so much mathematics in

football uh since I did all of these

analysis I've had this amazing

opportunity to talk to Premier League

Scouts and analysts about how the game

should be played most teams now have

some form of mathematician who works for

them and tries to work out how the team

can play better

together one thing though I haven't yet

been signed for

Liverpool and I thought I'd take this

opportunity Jurgen klopp if you're

watching just give me a call I'm

available

this is my daughter

Elise um I finally when I was going to

give a TED Talk I finally got her to sit

down and actually have a look at the

book that I've written about mathematics

and football Elisa is 13 years old and

she thinks a lot about how the world

works just like I did when I was that

age and when I was writing somatics when

I was studying how mathematics and

football were connected together I'd

often think about what I could communic

unate to her Alise isn't interested in

Barcelona's geometry or Ronaldo's shot

statistics what is it that I can tell

her about um the the coupling between

mathematics and

football the thing that I would like to

say to Elise and to Henry and to all of

you is that mathematics is not for some

detached Geniuses it's not about picking

you you you you're going to be in the

best team and other people aren't in the

team mathematics is like a kickabout

with friends it's about getting stuck in

it's about getting dirty and enjoying

yourself it's about using your

imagination it's about using it's

building up analogies between different

parts of the world mathematics is

something that all of us can and should

be

doing now often at talks like this you

see someone like me waving their hands

about saying mathematics is in

everything mathematics is everywhere way

and I have just done that and it is

something I agree with there is a lot of

mathematics in the world I showed a lot

of mathematics in

football but while there is mathematics

in everything it doesn't mean that

mathematics is the answer to the meaning

of life the universe and everything the

answer isn't 42 it isn't any other

number it isn't some complicated

equation that nobody else understands

what I learned from thinking about maths

and football was a lot more modesty

about my

subject so I can study Newton's

equations as much as I want but I'll

never be able to do a slatan Ibrahimovic

bicycle kick I can study the geometry of

Barcelona but I'll never be able to pass

in the way those players can I can study

Game Theory and strategy but I'll never

be able to manage a team like Pagen or

Pep

Guardiola I can study as many fancy

calculations make lots of fancy

calculations but in the end I'll still

be that boy 10 years old in the

Liverpool strip who can't play football

and only has a small insight into this

incredible complex and complicated world

we we live in math can't allow us to

understand everything not even close

there's lots of things in the world that

we'll never understand but what

mathematics does give us it gives us

this Edge it gives us that little extra

bit of understanding it allows us to win

just a few more matches than we lose and

that is why mathematics is important to

me to you and every one of us thank you