Introduction to Quarterly Theory (Something You Shouldn't Know)
Summary
TLDR本视频介绍了季度理论,强调时间分割为季度对于市场周期的准确解读至关重要。通过结合季度理论与基础ICD概念,可以提高交易精度。视频详细阐述了不同时间框架下的季度划分,包括年、月、周、日以及90分钟交易时段,并解释了如何利用这些周期进行交易。特别强调了Q1作为预测后续季度市场条件的基准,以及真实开盘价(True Opens)在交易中的应用,提供了不同周期的真实开盘价的具体时间和作用。
Takeaways
- 📈 市场周期理论强调时间必须按季度划分,以正确解读市场周期。
- 🔄 季度理论与基础ICD概念结合,可提高交易精度。
- 🎯 季度理论提供了具体的时间参考点,有助于消除交易中的不确定性。
- ⏰ 时间是交易中的致命因素,年度周期由四个季度组成,每季度三个月。
- 📊 月度周期由四个周组成,每周一个季度,每周从第一个完整周开始计算。
- 🌐 周度周期由四天组成,每天一个季度,周五有其特殊功能,不包含在内。
- 🕒 日度周期分为四个交易时段,每个时段六小时,每个时段又分为四个90分钟周期。
- 🔢 季度理论认为价格由算法驱动,Q1作为预测后续季度市场条件的基准。
- 📉 真正的开盘价(True Opens)是季度理论的核心,作为价格波动的时间过滤器。
- 📈 每个周期都有自己的真正开盘价,根据周期内的多空情绪,选择在真正开盘价之上卖出或之下买入。
- 📋 季度理论提供了算法通常遵循的两组指令,即AMDX和X AMD,帮助交易者理解市场动向。
- 📈 交易者应根据交易图表的时间框架选择合适的周期图表(PD),以维持正确的交易视角。
Q & A
什么是季度理论?
-季度理论是一种市场周期分析方法,它要求将时间分为季度,以便更准确地解释市场周期。通过结合季度理论和基础ICD概念,可以提高交易精度。
为什么时间对于交易至关重要?
-时间对于交易至关重要,因为它是交易中的一个决定性因素。理解时间的流逝和周期性可以帮助交易者更好地把握市场动态和交易时机。
年度周期是如何划分的?
-年度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度包含三个月:第一季度是一月至三月,第二季度是四月至六月,第三季度是七月至九月,第四季度是十月至十二月。
月度周期是如何划分的?
-月度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度包含一周。从每个月的第一个完整周开始计算季度,如果第一周是传统月份的部分周,则将其视为扭曲并忽略。
什么是每周的季度划分?
-每周的季度划分为四个部分,每天一个季度:周一是第一季度,周二是第二季度,周三是第三季度,周四是第四季度。周五不包含在周周期中,因为它有其特定的功能。
交易日的季度是如何划分的?
-交易日的季度分为四个部分,每部分六小时:亚洲交易时段是第一季度,伦敦交易时段是第二季度,纽约交易时段是第三季度,午后交易时段是第四季度。每个交易时段又由四个90分钟的周期组成。
季度理论中Q1的功能是什么?
-在季度理论中,Q1的功能是作为每个周期的初始输入,用于决定后续季度的市场条件。Q1可以作为预测后续季度市场状况的晴雨表。
什么是真正的开盘价(True Opens)?
-真正的开盘价(True Opens)是季度理论中用于作为时间基础过滤器的具体价格开盘点,用于衡量关键摆动或停止点。每个周期都有自己的真正开盘价。
如何在交易中利用真正的开盘价?
-在交易中,如果交易者在特定周期内看涨,他们希望在真正开盘价下方买入;如果看跌,则希望在真正开盘价上方卖出。这样可以显著提高交易的准确性。
季度理论中的AMDX和X AMD是什么意思?
-AMDX和X AMD是季度理论中算法通常遵循的两组指令。AMDX描述了价格从紧范围开始,然后进入操纵阶段(Judas String),接着是分发阶段,最后是X阶段,X阶段可以继续周期的已建立范围或逆转。X AMD则描述了从上一个周期的延续或逆转开始,Q2积累,Q3是操纵阶段,最后是分发阶段。
交易者如何确定使用哪个周期的真正开盘价?
-交易者应根据他们的交易时间框架来确定使用哪个周期的真正开盘价。例如,如果他们通常使用1分钟图表交易,他们需要一个15分钟的周期;如果使用5分钟图表,需要一个1小时的周期;以此类推。
季度理论如何帮助交易者提高交易精度?
-季度理论通过提供具体的时间参考点,帮助交易者在进入交易时减少歧义。通过理解每个季度的功能和真正的开盘价,交易者可以更准确地预测市场动向并确定交易时机。
Outlines
📈 季度理论基础与市场周期解读
本段落介绍了季度理论的基本概念,强调了时间必须按季度划分以便正确解读市场周期。通过结合季度理论与基础ICD概念,可以提高交易精度。该理论适用于所有时间框架,其优势在于消除了交易时的不确定性,提供了具体的时间参考点。此外,还介绍了年度、月度、周度和日度周期的划分方式,以及每个周期的特定功能和交易时段。
📊 季度理论的应用与真实开盘价的重要性
这一部分深入探讨了季度理论的应用,特别是如何使用第一季度(Q1)作为预测后续季度市场条件的基准。介绍了真实开盘价(True Opens)的概念,这是价格特定开盘点,作为时间基础的过滤器,用于衡量假突破或止损点。详细说明了不同周期的真实开盘价,并讨论了如何在不同的市场环境中应用这些开盘价来提高交易的准确性。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡季度理论
💡时间是致命的
💡真开盘
💡市场条件
💡时间分形
💡交易时段
💡算法
💡Judas弦
💡分布阶段
💡X AMD
💡时间框架
Highlights
介绍了季度理论,强调时间必须按季度划分以正确解释市场周期。
通过逆向工程内部圈子交易者教授的概念,发现大多数交易理论。
季度理论与基础ICD概念结合,可以提高交易精度。
文化理论允许交易者灵活应对,适用于所有时间框架。
季度理论消除了模糊性,提供了具体的基于时间的参考点来寻找交易时机。
年度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度三个月。
月度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度一周。
周度密码由四个季度组成,每个季度一天。
每日周期由四个季度组成,每个季度六小时,与交易日的四个交易时段完美对应。
每个交易时段由四个90分钟周期组成,称为90分钟周期。
亚洲交易时段的90分钟周期从晚上6点到晚上12点。
伦敦交易时段的90分钟周期从午夜到早上6点。
纽约交易时段的90分钟周期从早上6点到中午12点。
下午交易时段的90分钟周期从中午12点到下午6点。
时间是分形的,我们可以开始探究各个季度的功能。
价格是由算法决定的,每个周期都有一个初始输入用于做出决策。
Q1作为预测后续季度市场条件的晴雨表,决定了后续季度的走势。
季度理论中真正的开盘是特定周期内价格特定开盘点,作为时间过滤器。
在特定周期内,如果看涨则希望在真正的开盘下方买入,看跌则在真正的开盘上方卖出。
每个周期都有自己的真正开盘,例如两年开盘、月度开盘、周度开盘、日度开盘等。
在波兰市场环境中,真正的开盘如何运作的示例图。
算法通常遵循两组指令,称为AMDX和X AMD。
X AMD中,第一个季度是前一个周期的延续或反转,Q2是积累阶段,Q3是操纵阶段,最后一个阶段是分发阶段。
对于X AMD,即使在Q2期间发生积累,你仍将使用Q2的开盘价作为真正的开盘来衡量Judas环。
分发阶段是交易最容易的阶段,因为它遵循前一个季度已经建立的趋势。
Transcripts
hello everyone today I'll be introducing
quarterly Theory
before going forward I would like to
state that most if not all of my
discoveries were made by reverse
engineering Concepts taught by the Inner
Circle Trader
quarterly theories states that time must
be divided in quarters for a proper
interpretation of the market Cycles
blending quarterly Theory and basic ICD
Concepts leads to enhanced precision
understanding culturally Theory allows
you to be flexible
it fits in with any style of trading as
it is universal to all time frames
my favorite thing about this theory is
that it removes ambiguity as it gives
you specific time-based reference points
to look for when entering trades
before being able to implement this
Theory into your trading you must first
understand that time is fatal
the yearly cycle is comprised of four
quarters three months each
the first quarter is January to March
the second quarter is April to June
third quarter is July to September and
the fourth quarter is October to
December
the monthly cycle is comprised of four
quarters one week each
in regards to the monthly cycle I start
counting the quarters from the first
full week
meaning
if the first week relating to the
traditional month is a partial week it
is omitted and viewed as distortion
the first full week of the month is the
first quarter the second week is the
second quarter the third week is the
third quarter and the fourth week is the
fourth quarter
the weekly Cipher is comprised of four
quarters one day each
Monday is the first quarter
Tuesday is the second quarter Wednesday
is the third quarter and Thursday is the
fourth quarter
Friday is not included into the weekly
cycle due to the fact that it has its
own specific function
the daily cycle is comprised of four
quarters six hours each which perfectly
aligns with the four trading sessions of
a trading day
the first quarter is the Asian session
the second quarter is the London session
the third quarter is the New York
session and the fourth quarter is the
afternoon session
each session is comprised of four
quarters 90 minutes each
I refer to them as the 90-minute cycles
in regards to the Asian session the
90-minute circles are as follows
6 PM to 7 30 PM is the first quarter
7 30 pm to 9 pm is the second quarter
9 pm within 30 PM is the third quarter
and 10 30 pm
to 12 a.m midnight is the fourth quarter
in regards to the London session
the 90-minute Cycles are as follows
the first quarter is
12 a.m midnight to 1 30 am
the second quarter is 1 30 a.m to 3 AM
the third quarter is 3 A.M to 4 30 am
the fourth quarter is 4 30 a.m to 6 am
in regards to the New York session
the 90-minute Cycles are as follows
the first quarter is 6 a.m to 7 30 am
the second quarter is 7 30 a.m to 9 A.M
the third quarter is
9 A.M to 10 30 am
and the fourth quarter is 10 30 am to 12
P.M
in regards to the afternoon session the
90-minute circles are as follows
the first quarter is 12 P.M to 1 30 pm
the second quarter is 1 30 pm to 3 P.M
the third quarter is 3 P.M to 4 30 pm
and the fourth quarter is 4 30 pm to 6
pm
know that we understand that time is
fractal we can begin to look into the
functions of some of the quarters
I believe that price is delivered by an
algorithm
so there must be some initial input
which is used to make decisions
throughout each cycle
this is the function of q1
q1 dictates the quarters which follow
meaning
I use q1 as a barometer for forecasting
market conditions in the subsequent
quarters of each cycle I'm looking at
if the first quarter is overextended
I'll expect the second quarter to
consolidate
and if the first quarter is in a tight
range I would expect the second quarter
to expand
now is where things get interesting so
if you haven't been taking notes I
suggest that you pause the video right
now and go grab some note-taking
instruments
true opens are the main components of
quarterly Theory
that they are specific openings of price
which serve as a time-based filter for
gauging Judas swings or stop ons
true opens or the beginning of Q2 of
every cycle
it is a simple concept to understand
if you are bullish within a specific
cycle
you want to buy below it's true open
and if you are bearish within a specific
cycle you want to sell above its true
open
this will increase your accuracy
tremendously
as key levels usually rest above or
below through all pens
every cycle has its own true open
the two-year open is the opening price
of the first Monday of April
the true month open is the opening price
of the second Monday of the month
the true week open is Monday at 6 pm
the true day open is 12 o'clock midnight
the true open of the Asian session is 7
30 pm
the true open of the London session is 1
30 am
the true open of the New York session is
7 30 am and the true open of the
afternoon session is 1 30 pm
the image to the right depicts how true
opens function during Polish market
environments
now we'll look at the quarterly Theory
cheat sheet there are two sets of
instructions that the algorithm usually
follows
I deemed them as amdx
and X AMD the diagram to the right gives
a visual depiction of amdx as you can
see q1 from the tight range after which
the manipulation phase of price begins
ICT dubs this as
the Judas string
according to his algorithmic theory
the purpose of this fake movie is to get
Traders offside
after which the real move takes place
after the manipulation phase takes place
the next phase is the distribution phase
this phase is usually the easiest to
trade as the previous quarter has
already established the trend of the
cycle
the fourth phase is X the fourth phase
is X which can either continue the
established range of the cycle or
reverse
in regards of this example the fourth
quarter is reversal as you can see press
reverses at higher time frame pdas or
key levels liquidity is induced when
price breaches old eyes and whole laws
while trading into key levels if you
usually trade with the one minute chart
you need a 15 minute period
if you usually trade with the five
minute chart you need a one-hour PD
array if you usually trade with the
15-minute chart you need a 4-Hour
pediary
if you usually trade with the 100 chart
you need a daily video
and if you usually trade with a four
hour chart you need a weekly period in
regards to X AMD the first quarter is
the continuation or reversal of the
previous queue
of the previous cycle using what you
understand from the function of q1 Q2
should then accumulate
resulting in high range price action Q3
would then be your manipulation phase
over the rules for the true opens are
static they don't change
the opening price of Q2 will always be
its true open so if the profile that
you're looking at is X AMD
even though
accumulation takes place during Q2
you will use the opening price of Q2
which is a true open to gauge the Judas
ring which represents itself more times
than not in Q3
the last phase will be the distribution
phase which will be the easiest phase to
trade in regards to X A and D
hopefully this was insightful I'll talk
with you guys whenever I make another
video
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