Introduction to Quarterly Theory (Something You Shouldn't Know)

Daye
16 Sept 202309:56

Summary

TLDR本视频介绍了季度理论,强调时间分割为季度对于市场周期的准确解读至关重要。通过结合季度理论与基础ICD概念,可以提高交易精度。视频详细阐述了不同时间框架下的季度划分,包括年、月、周、日以及90分钟交易时段,并解释了如何利用这些周期进行交易。特别强调了Q1作为预测后续季度市场条件的基准,以及真实开盘价(True Opens)在交易中的应用,提供了不同周期的真实开盘价的具体时间和作用。

Takeaways

  • 📈 市场周期理论强调时间必须按季度划分,以正确解读市场周期。
  • 🔄 季度理论与基础ICD概念结合,可提高交易精度。
  • 🎯 季度理论提供了具体的时间参考点,有助于消除交易中的不确定性。
  • ⏰ 时间是交易中的致命因素,年度周期由四个季度组成,每季度三个月。
  • 📊 月度周期由四个周组成,每周一个季度,每周从第一个完整周开始计算。
  • 🌐 周度周期由四天组成,每天一个季度,周五有其特殊功能,不包含在内。
  • 🕒 日度周期分为四个交易时段,每个时段六小时,每个时段又分为四个90分钟周期。
  • 🔢 季度理论认为价格由算法驱动,Q1作为预测后续季度市场条件的基准。
  • 📉 真正的开盘价(True Opens)是季度理论的核心,作为价格波动的时间过滤器。
  • 📈 每个周期都有自己的真正开盘价,根据周期内的多空情绪,选择在真正开盘价之上卖出或之下买入。
  • 📋 季度理论提供了算法通常遵循的两组指令,即AMDX和X AMD,帮助交易者理解市场动向。
  • 📈 交易者应根据交易图表的时间框架选择合适的周期图表(PD),以维持正确的交易视角。

Q & A

  • 什么是季度理论?

    -季度理论是一种市场周期分析方法,它要求将时间分为季度,以便更准确地解释市场周期。通过结合季度理论和基础ICD概念,可以提高交易精度。

  • 为什么时间对于交易至关重要?

    -时间对于交易至关重要,因为它是交易中的一个决定性因素。理解时间的流逝和周期性可以帮助交易者更好地把握市场动态和交易时机。

  • 年度周期是如何划分的?

    -年度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度包含三个月:第一季度是一月至三月,第二季度是四月至六月,第三季度是七月至九月,第四季度是十月至十二月。

  • 月度周期是如何划分的?

    -月度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度包含一周。从每个月的第一个完整周开始计算季度,如果第一周是传统月份的部分周,则将其视为扭曲并忽略。

  • 什么是每周的季度划分?

    -每周的季度划分为四个部分,每天一个季度:周一是第一季度,周二是第二季度,周三是第三季度,周四是第四季度。周五不包含在周周期中,因为它有其特定的功能。

  • 交易日的季度是如何划分的?

    -交易日的季度分为四个部分,每部分六小时:亚洲交易时段是第一季度,伦敦交易时段是第二季度,纽约交易时段是第三季度,午后交易时段是第四季度。每个交易时段又由四个90分钟的周期组成。

  • 季度理论中Q1的功能是什么?

    -在季度理论中,Q1的功能是作为每个周期的初始输入,用于决定后续季度的市场条件。Q1可以作为预测后续季度市场状况的晴雨表。

  • 什么是真正的开盘价(True Opens)?

    -真正的开盘价(True Opens)是季度理论中用于作为时间基础过滤器的具体价格开盘点,用于衡量关键摆动或停止点。每个周期都有自己的真正开盘价。

  • 如何在交易中利用真正的开盘价?

    -在交易中,如果交易者在特定周期内看涨,他们希望在真正开盘价下方买入;如果看跌,则希望在真正开盘价上方卖出。这样可以显著提高交易的准确性。

  • 季度理论中的AMDX和X AMD是什么意思?

    -AMDX和X AMD是季度理论中算法通常遵循的两组指令。AMDX描述了价格从紧范围开始,然后进入操纵阶段(Judas String),接着是分发阶段,最后是X阶段,X阶段可以继续周期的已建立范围或逆转。X AMD则描述了从上一个周期的延续或逆转开始,Q2积累,Q3是操纵阶段,最后是分发阶段。

  • 交易者如何确定使用哪个周期的真正开盘价?

    -交易者应根据他们的交易时间框架来确定使用哪个周期的真正开盘价。例如,如果他们通常使用1分钟图表交易,他们需要一个15分钟的周期;如果使用5分钟图表,需要一个1小时的周期;以此类推。

  • 季度理论如何帮助交易者提高交易精度?

    -季度理论通过提供具体的时间参考点,帮助交易者在进入交易时减少歧义。通过理解每个季度的功能和真正的开盘价,交易者可以更准确地预测市场动向并确定交易时机。

Outlines

00:00

📈 季度理论基础与市场周期解读

本段落介绍了季度理论的基本概念,强调了时间必须按季度划分以便正确解读市场周期。通过结合季度理论与基础ICD概念,可以提高交易精度。该理论适用于所有时间框架,其优势在于消除了交易时的不确定性,提供了具体的时间参考点。此外,还介绍了年度、月度、周度和日度周期的划分方式,以及每个周期的特定功能和交易时段。

05:01

📊 季度理论的应用与真实开盘价的重要性

这一部分深入探讨了季度理论的应用,特别是如何使用第一季度(Q1)作为预测后续季度市场条件的基准。介绍了真实开盘价(True Opens)的概念,这是价格特定开盘点,作为时间基础的过滤器,用于衡量假突破或止损点。详细说明了不同周期的真实开盘价,并讨论了如何在不同的市场环境中应用这些开盘价来提高交易的准确性。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡季度理论

季度理论是视频中介绍的一种市场分析方法,它强调将时间划分为季度,以便更准确地解读市场周期。这种方法结合了基础的ICD概念,可以提高交易的精确度,并且适用于所有时间框架的交易风格。

💡时间是致命的

在视频中,提到'时间是致命的',意味着时间在交易中起着至关重要的作用,交易者必须意识到时间的价值和对交易决策的影响。

💡真开盘

真开盘是指在特定周期中,价格的具体开盘点,它作为时间基准,帮助交易者判断市场的波动或停止点。在视频中,真开盘被用来作为交易决策的过滤器。

💡市场条件

市场条件指的是影响交易决策的各种因素,包括价格波动、市场趋势和交易量等。视频中提到,通过分析季度理论,交易者可以更好地预测和理解市场条件。

💡时间分形

时间分形是指市场时间结构的自相似性,即在不同的时间尺度上,市场模式会呈现出相似的特征。视频中提到,理解时间分形可以帮助交易者深入分析季度理论的功能。

💡交易时段

交易时段指的是金融市场中特定时间段内的交易活动。视频中详细划分了一天中的不同交易时段,如亚洲交易时段、伦敦交易时段、纽约交易时段和午后交易时段,每个时段都有其特定的交易特点和活跃度。

💡算法

算法在这里指的是一种预设的计算过程或指令序列,用于解决特定问题或执行特定任务。视频中提到,价格可能是由某种算法决定的,这个算法使用初始输入来在每个周期中做出决策。

💡Judas弦

Judas弦是视频中提到的一个概念,它指的是市场操纵阶段的一个特定时刻,目的是让交易者处于不利的位置,之后真正的市场动向才会发生。

💡分布阶段

分布阶段是指市场价格在建立趋势后的阶段,通常在这个阶段,市场趋势已经由前一个季度确立,交易者可以更容易地进行交易。

💡X AMD

X AMD是视频中提到的另一种算法模式,它描述了市场在不同季度中可能的连续性或反转行为,以及随后的积累和操纵阶段。

💡时间框架

时间框架指的是交易者用来分析市场走势和制定交易策略的时间范围。视频中强调,季度理论适用于所有时间框架,意味着无论是短期交易还是长期投资,都可以应用这一理论。

Highlights

介绍了季度理论,强调时间必须按季度划分以正确解释市场周期。

通过逆向工程内部圈子交易者教授的概念,发现大多数交易理论。

季度理论与基础ICD概念结合,可以提高交易精度。

文化理论允许交易者灵活应对,适用于所有时间框架。

季度理论消除了模糊性,提供了具体的基于时间的参考点来寻找交易时机。

年度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度三个月。

月度周期由四个季度组成,每个季度一周。

周度密码由四个季度组成,每个季度一天。

每日周期由四个季度组成,每个季度六小时,与交易日的四个交易时段完美对应。

每个交易时段由四个90分钟周期组成,称为90分钟周期。

亚洲交易时段的90分钟周期从晚上6点到晚上12点。

伦敦交易时段的90分钟周期从午夜到早上6点。

纽约交易时段的90分钟周期从早上6点到中午12点。

下午交易时段的90分钟周期从中午12点到下午6点。

时间是分形的,我们可以开始探究各个季度的功能。

价格是由算法决定的,每个周期都有一个初始输入用于做出决策。

Q1作为预测后续季度市场条件的晴雨表,决定了后续季度的走势。

季度理论中真正的开盘是特定周期内价格特定开盘点,作为时间过滤器。

在特定周期内,如果看涨则希望在真正的开盘下方买入,看跌则在真正的开盘上方卖出。

每个周期都有自己的真正开盘,例如两年开盘、月度开盘、周度开盘、日度开盘等。

在波兰市场环境中,真正的开盘如何运作的示例图。

算法通常遵循两组指令,称为AMDX和X AMD。

X AMD中,第一个季度是前一个周期的延续或反转,Q2是积累阶段,Q3是操纵阶段,最后一个阶段是分发阶段。

对于X AMD,即使在Q2期间发生积累,你仍将使用Q2的开盘价作为真正的开盘来衡量Judas环。

分发阶段是交易最容易的阶段,因为它遵循前一个季度已经建立的趋势。

Transcripts

play00:00

hello everyone today I'll be introducing

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quarterly Theory

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before going forward I would like to

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state that most if not all of my

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discoveries were made by reverse

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engineering Concepts taught by the Inner

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Circle Trader

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quarterly theories states that time must

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be divided in quarters for a proper

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interpretation of the market Cycles

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blending quarterly Theory and basic ICD

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Concepts leads to enhanced precision

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understanding culturally Theory allows

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you to be flexible

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it fits in with any style of trading as

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it is universal to all time frames

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my favorite thing about this theory is

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that it removes ambiguity as it gives

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you specific time-based reference points

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to look for when entering trades

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before being able to implement this

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Theory into your trading you must first

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understand that time is fatal

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the yearly cycle is comprised of four

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quarters three months each

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the first quarter is January to March

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the second quarter is April to June

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third quarter is July to September and

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the fourth quarter is October to

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December

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the monthly cycle is comprised of four

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quarters one week each

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in regards to the monthly cycle I start

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counting the quarters from the first

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full week

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meaning

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if the first week relating to the

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traditional month is a partial week it

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is omitted and viewed as distortion

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the first full week of the month is the

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first quarter the second week is the

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second quarter the third week is the

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third quarter and the fourth week is the

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fourth quarter

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the weekly Cipher is comprised of four

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quarters one day each

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Monday is the first quarter

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Tuesday is the second quarter Wednesday

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is the third quarter and Thursday is the

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fourth quarter

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Friday is not included into the weekly

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cycle due to the fact that it has its

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own specific function

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the daily cycle is comprised of four

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quarters six hours each which perfectly

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aligns with the four trading sessions of

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a trading day

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the first quarter is the Asian session

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the second quarter is the London session

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the third quarter is the New York

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session and the fourth quarter is the

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afternoon session

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each session is comprised of four

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quarters 90 minutes each

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I refer to them as the 90-minute cycles

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in regards to the Asian session the

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90-minute circles are as follows

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6 PM to 7 30 PM is the first quarter

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7 30 pm to 9 pm is the second quarter

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9 pm within 30 PM is the third quarter

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and 10 30 pm

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to 12 a.m midnight is the fourth quarter

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in regards to the London session

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the 90-minute Cycles are as follows

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the first quarter is

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12 a.m midnight to 1 30 am

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the second quarter is 1 30 a.m to 3 AM

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the third quarter is 3 A.M to 4 30 am

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the fourth quarter is 4 30 a.m to 6 am

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in regards to the New York session

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the 90-minute Cycles are as follows

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the first quarter is 6 a.m to 7 30 am

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the second quarter is 7 30 a.m to 9 A.M

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the third quarter is

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9 A.M to 10 30 am

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and the fourth quarter is 10 30 am to 12

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P.M

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in regards to the afternoon session the

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90-minute circles are as follows

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the first quarter is 12 P.M to 1 30 pm

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the second quarter is 1 30 pm to 3 P.M

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the third quarter is 3 P.M to 4 30 pm

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and the fourth quarter is 4 30 pm to 6

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pm

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know that we understand that time is

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fractal we can begin to look into the

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functions of some of the quarters

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I believe that price is delivered by an

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algorithm

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so there must be some initial input

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which is used to make decisions

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throughout each cycle

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this is the function of q1

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q1 dictates the quarters which follow

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meaning

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I use q1 as a barometer for forecasting

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market conditions in the subsequent

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quarters of each cycle I'm looking at

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if the first quarter is overextended

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I'll expect the second quarter to

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consolidate

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and if the first quarter is in a tight

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range I would expect the second quarter

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to expand

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now is where things get interesting so

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if you haven't been taking notes I

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suggest that you pause the video right

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now and go grab some note-taking

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instruments

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true opens are the main components of

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quarterly Theory

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that they are specific openings of price

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which serve as a time-based filter for

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gauging Judas swings or stop ons

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true opens or the beginning of Q2 of

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every cycle

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it is a simple concept to understand

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if you are bullish within a specific

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cycle

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you want to buy below it's true open

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and if you are bearish within a specific

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cycle you want to sell above its true

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open

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this will increase your accuracy

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tremendously

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as key levels usually rest above or

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below through all pens

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every cycle has its own true open

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the two-year open is the opening price

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of the first Monday of April

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the true month open is the opening price

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of the second Monday of the month

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the true week open is Monday at 6 pm

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the true day open is 12 o'clock midnight

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the true open of the Asian session is 7

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30 pm

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the true open of the London session is 1

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30 am

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the true open of the New York session is

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7 30 am and the true open of the

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afternoon session is 1 30 pm

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the image to the right depicts how true

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opens function during Polish market

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environments

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now we'll look at the quarterly Theory

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cheat sheet there are two sets of

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instructions that the algorithm usually

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follows

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I deemed them as amdx

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and X AMD the diagram to the right gives

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a visual depiction of amdx as you can

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see q1 from the tight range after which

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the manipulation phase of price begins

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ICT dubs this as

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the Judas string

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according to his algorithmic theory

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the purpose of this fake movie is to get

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Traders offside

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after which the real move takes place

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after the manipulation phase takes place

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the next phase is the distribution phase

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this phase is usually the easiest to

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trade as the previous quarter has

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already established the trend of the

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cycle

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the fourth phase is X the fourth phase

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is X which can either continue the

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established range of the cycle or

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reverse

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in regards of this example the fourth

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quarter is reversal as you can see press

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reverses at higher time frame pdas or

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key levels liquidity is induced when

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price breaches old eyes and whole laws

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while trading into key levels if you

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usually trade with the one minute chart

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you need a 15 minute period

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if you usually trade with the five

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minute chart you need a one-hour PD

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array if you usually trade with the

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15-minute chart you need a 4-Hour

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pediary

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if you usually trade with the 100 chart

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you need a daily video

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and if you usually trade with a four

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hour chart you need a weekly period in

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regards to X AMD the first quarter is

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the continuation or reversal of the

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previous queue

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of the previous cycle using what you

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understand from the function of q1 Q2

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should then accumulate

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resulting in high range price action Q3

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would then be your manipulation phase

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over the rules for the true opens are

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static they don't change

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the opening price of Q2 will always be

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its true open so if the profile that

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you're looking at is X AMD

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even though

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accumulation takes place during Q2

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you will use the opening price of Q2

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which is a true open to gauge the Judas

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ring which represents itself more times

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than not in Q3

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the last phase will be the distribution

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phase which will be the easiest phase to

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trade in regards to X A and D

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hopefully this was insightful I'll talk

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with you guys whenever I make another

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video

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市场周期季度理论交易策略时间分割Inner Circle Trader精确交易时间框架价格算法真开识别交易技巧
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