Why 0.008% of the U.S. population might determine the election | About That

Summary

This script delves into the pivotal role of swing states in US presidential elections, using the 2020 race as a case study. It illustrates how a mere 20,000 voters across Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could have tipped the electoral balance, resulting in a 269-269 tie. Such a scenario would empower the House of Representatives to decide the presidency. The script underscores the strategic importance of battleground states, where even a slight shift in voter preference can alter election outcomes. It also highlights the unique dynamics of each swing state, emphasizing the need for candidates to tailor their strategies to local issues and demographics.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ A shift of 5,000 voters in key states could have altered the 2020 U.S. Presidential election outcome, emphasizing the importance of swing states.
• 🔍 Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were pivotal with narrow margins, where a small change in votes could have given all their electoral votes to Trump.
• 📊 In a hypothetical scenario, a mere 20,000 voters changing their minds across three states could result in a 269-269 electoral tie.
• 🏛️ In the event of an electoral tie, the U.S. House of Representatives decides the President, potentially leading to Trump's second term with a slim voter margin.
• 📈 The script highlights the strategic focus on battleground states, where campaigns concentrate efforts to sway a small but decisive voter base.
• 🏢 Pollsters predict certain states as key battlegrounds, where the margin between victory and defeat is slim, often less than 3 percentage points.
• 🚩 Both Democratic and Republican strategies involve winning a combination of three to five swing states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
• 🌎 The script outlines various plausible paths to victory for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, focusing on different state combinations.
• 🏠 Pennsylvania is highlighted as a 'must-win' state with 19 electoral votes, where winning over both urban and rural voters is crucial.
• 🌐 Each swing state has unique demographics and issues, such as Nevada's economic recovery, Michigan's Arab-American population, and Georgia's significant Black voter base.

Q & A

How many electoral college votes could potentially switch from Biden to Trump if 5,000 people changed their votes?

If 5,000 people switched their votes from Biden to Trump, all 16 electoral college votes of the mentioned state would go to Trump.

By how many votes did Biden win Arizona in the 2020 election according to the script?

Biden won Arizona by 4,057 votes.

What would be the outcome for Wisconsin's electoral college votes if 10,342 Biden supporters changed their votes to Trump?

If 10,342 Biden supporters changed their votes to Trump, Wisconsin's ten electoral college votes would go to Trump.

What is the significance of the 269-269 electoral college vote tie mentioned in the script?

A 269-269 tie in the electoral college votes would result in the House of Representatives deciding the winner of the presidential election.

What is the minimum number of battleground states one candidate needs to win to potentially secure the presidency, according to the script?

A candidate could potentially win the presidency by winning as few as three of the swing states.

Which states are considered the seven battleground states in the context of the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

The seven battleground states mentioned are Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada.

What is the electoral vote strategy for Kamala Harris mentioned in the script?

One strategy for Kamala Harris is to carry Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, along with one congressional district in Nebraska, to reach exactly 270 electoral votes.

What is the electoral vote strategy for Donald Trump mentioned in the script?

Donald Trump's strategy could involve winning North Carolina and Georgia, the two most valuable swing states, and then flipping either Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada, followed by winning the Rust Belt states.

What demographic factor is highlighted as particularly influential in Georgia's voting population?

Black voters make up a third of Georgia's voting population, which is the largest voting bloc in the United States.

How does the script describe the importance of winning swing states in the U.S. presidential election?

Winning swing states is crucial as candidates only need to win a combination of three to five of these states, while holding onto the other states they are expected to win, to reach the 270 electoral college vote threshold.