Fareed looks at what's driving voters' decision

Summary

The script discusses Democrats' frustration with American voters not voting in line with their material interests and how recent scholarship suggests that people vote based on emotional, ideological, and moral factors rather than rational self-interest. It highlights Kamala Harris's campaign strategy, which focuses on emotional connection and personal charisma over policy details. The choice of Tim Walsh as a running mate is noted for its emotional appeal. The script also contrasts the Democrats' move away from Ivy League candidates with the Republicans' Ivy League ticket, suggesting a strategic shift in voter engagement.

Takeaways

• 😕 Democrats have historically been frustrated with American voters for not voting in line with their material interests.
• 🤔 Recent scholarship suggests that people vote based on emotions, ideologies, and moral values rather than rational self-interest.
• 🧠 The script references scholars like Daniel Kahneman and Jonathan Haidt, who believe that elections involve intuition and passion.
• 🏅 Kamala Harris's campaign is described as focused and disciplined, prioritizing emotional connection over detailed policy discussions.
• 📚 There's a notable absence of extensive policy papers in Harris's campaign, contrasting with Hillary Clinton's 2016 approach.
• 🗣️ Harris has been avoiding in-depth interviews and press conferences that might require her to articulate specific policy stances.
• 🤝 Her campaign emphasizes a warm, optimistic, and relatable image, aiming to connect with voters on a personal level.
• 🤔 The choice of Tim Walsh as a running mate is seen as an emotional and image-based decision rather than a purely practical one.
• 🔄 There's a shift in political strategies, with Democrats moving away from Ivy League candidates and Republicans embracing them.
• 📈 Harris's campaign has been successful in solidifying support in states that had become potential toss-ups.
• 🚫 The script suggests that to win, Harris will need to address key issues like abortion and immigration more substantively.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the book 'What's the Matter with Kansas?' as mentioned in the transcript?

The main theme of the book 'What's the Matter with Kansas?' is the tendency of Democrats to be exasperated at the American people for not voting in line with their material interests, instead voting based on emotional, ideological, and moral reasons.

Which scholars are associated with the view that people vote based on emotions rather than rationality?

Daniel Kahneman and Jonathan Haidt are the scholars associated with the view that people vote based on emotions, intuition, and passion rather than purely rational considerations.

How does Kamala Harris's campaign strategy differ from Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign?

Kamala Harris's campaign is described as focused and disciplined, light on substance and high on feelings, with fewer policy papers and more emphasis on presenting herself as a dynamic, warm, funny, and optimistic person.

What is the significance of Kamala Harris's choice of running mate in the context of the campaign strategy?

Kamala Harris chose a running mate who projects an image that resonates throughout the country, rather than the practical choice of a governor from a swing state, indicating a strategy that values emotional connection and image over strategic political calculations.

How has the Democratic Party's nomination strategy evolved in recent years according to the transcript?

The Democratic Party's nomination strategy has evolved from nominating Ivy League graduates to embracing candidates with more relatable and less elitist backgrounds, as seen with the nominations of Biden and Harris.

What is the contrast in the campaign strategies between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

While Donald Trump and the Republicans have been masters of the politics of emotion, emphasizing strength and evoking fear, Kamala Harris's campaign focuses on hopefulness and a sense of joy.

What is the current status of Kamala Harris's campaign in terms of national polls and swing states?

Kamala Harris is leading Trump in some national polls and is effectively tied with him in the swing states, indicating a successful campaign thus far.

What are the Democrats' strengths and weaknesses as mentioned in the transcript?

The Democrats' biggest strength is the issue of abortion, where they have been eloquent and effective. Their biggest weakness is immigration, which galvanizes Republicans and even some independents.

How has Donald Trump's approach to immigration policy impacted the Democrats' campaign strategy?

Donald Trump's abandonment of the bipartisan immigration bill has provided the Democrats with an escape hatch on the issue, allowing them to point out their support for a tough crackdown at the border without having to defend a weak stand on the collapse of the asylum process.

What is the potential strategy for Kamala Harris to address the issue of immigration?

Kamala Harris could pledge to pass the bipartisan immigration bill if she wins and go further by committing to overhaul the entire asylum system to reflect the current global reality of asylum seekers.

What is the predicted outcome of the election based on the transcript?

The election is predicted to be a tough, close contest with Kamala Harris having chosen an unusual path that could potentially pay off in November.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ Emotional Voting and Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy

This paragraph discusses the tendency of Democrats to be frustrated with American voters for not voting in their material interests. It references a book that questions the voting behavior of Americans, suggesting that people vote based on emotional, ideological, and moral reasons rather than rational self-interest. The paragraph then shifts to analyze Kamala Harris's campaign strategy, which is described as being focused on emotional connection and light on policy specifics. Harris's approach is contrasted with Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign, which was heavy on policy. The paragraph also discusses Harris's choice of running mate and how it aligns with an emotional appeal, contrasting with traditional Democratic nominees from Ivy League backgrounds. The strategy is seen as effective in solidifying support in traditionally blue states and in national polls, but it acknowledges that the approach has its limits and that substance will be necessary to win in closely contested states.

05:00

🛂 Immigration Policy and the Harris Strategy's Prospects

The second paragraph delves into the specifics of Kamala Harris's stance on immigration, suggesting that she should advocate for a complete overhaul of the asylum system to reflect the current global reality. It acknowledges the challenges and vulnerabilities Harris faces in her campaign but posits that her unique strategy, which differs from traditional Democratic approaches, could be successful in the upcoming election. The paragraph concludes by inviting readers to access further analysis in a Washington Post column via CNN's website.

Keywords

💡exasperated

Exasperated refers to a feeling of irritation or annoyance, often caused by the inability to deal with a difficult situation or person. In the context of the video, it describes the Democrats' frustration with the American people for not voting according to their perceived material interests. The script mentions that Democrats have been 'exasperated' at the American people, implying a disconnect between the party's expectations and the voters' actual choices.

💡material interests

Material interests pertain to the tangible, economic, or physical benefits that individuals or groups seek to obtain. The video discusses how Democrats believe the American people should vote in favor of policies that would improve their material conditions, suggesting a utilitarian approach to voting. However, the script challenges this view by highlighting that people often vote based on emotional and ideological factors rather than purely rational, self-interested reasons.

💡ideological

Ideological refers to the set of political or social principles that guide an individual's or group's actions and beliefs. The video script suggests that voters often cast their ballots based on their ideologies, which are deeply held beliefs that may not always align with their immediate material interests. This is exemplified by the discussion of how people use voting to express themselves in emotional, ideological, and moral ways, rather than purely rational considerations.

💡intuition

Intuition is the ability to understand or know something immediately, without the need for conscious reasoning. The video script associates intuition with the way voters make choices, suggesting that they often decide based on 'gut feelings' rather than detailed analysis. This is linked to the idea that voters may be swayed more by a candidate's charisma or emotional appeal than by their policy proposals.

💡Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is a prominent figure in the script, being a key Democratic Party nominee. The video discusses her campaign strategy, which is described as 'intuition-based' and 'light on substance,' focusing more on emotional connection and personal charisma. The script contrasts this approach with the more policy-heavy campaigns of other politicians, like Hillary Clinton, and suggests that Harris's strategy is resonating with voters.

💡vibes

Vibes, in this context, refers to the general atmosphere or feeling that a person, place, or situation gives off. The video script uses the term to describe the emotional and energetic impact that Kamala Harris's campaign aims to create. It suggests that her campaign is 'heavy on vibes,' meaning it emphasizes creating a positive and engaging emotional environment to attract voters.

💡running mate

A running mate is a candidate for the position of vice president who runs alongside a presidential candidate. In the script, the choice of a running mate is discussed as a strategic decision that can influence the appeal of a campaign. The video mentions that Kamala Harris chose a governor who projects a resonating image, suggesting that the selection was more about emotional resonance than purely practical considerations.

💡Ivy League

The Ivy League refers to an American collegiate athletic conference consisting of eight prestigious universities, often associated with academic excellence and social elitism. The video script notes a shift in the Democratic Party's nominations, moving away from candidates with Ivy League degrees towards more diverse backgrounds. This is contrasted with the Republican Party's 'all Ivy ticket,' highlighting a change in the educational and social profiles of candidates across the two parties.

💡asylum process

The asylum process refers to the legal procedures by which individuals can seek protection from persecution in a country other than their own. The video script discusses the Democratic Party's stance on immigration and asylum, suggesting that Kamala Harris has been more vocal on the issue than her running mate. It also mentions the collapse of the asylum process as a point of weakness for the Democrats, indicating the complexity and controversy surrounding immigration policy.

💡bipartisan

Bipartisan describes a situation in which members of two major political parties work together to achieve a common goal. The video script refers to a bipartisan immigration bill that was abandoned, which the Democrats could use to their advantage by highlighting their support for a tough but cooperative approach to immigration, contrasting with the Republicans' stance.

Highlights

Democrats often get frustrated with the American people for not voting in their material interests.

The book 'What's the Matter with Kansas?' is mentioned to illustrate the Democrats' confusion about voters' choices.

Recent scholarship suggests that people vote based on emotions, ideologies, and moral values rather than rational self-interest.

Daniel Kahneman and Jonathan Haidt's views on human behavior are associated with the idea that elections involve intuition and passion.

Voters tend to make choices based on their gut feelings and then rationalize them.

Kamala Harris's campaign is described as focused and disciplined, with an emphasis on emotions over substance.

Harris's campaign lacks the policy papers that were common in Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign.

Harris presents herself as dynamic, warm, funny, and optimistic to connect with voters on a human level.

Harris's running mate choice reflects a strategy that prioritizes emotional resonance over practical political considerations.

The choice of Tim Walsh as a running mate highlights the importance of emotional connection over intellectual qualifications.

Harris's campaign strategy is a shift from the Democrats' traditional focus on Ivy League-educated candidates.

Republicans, in contrast, have an all Ivy League ticket, which is a departure from their usual strategy.

Harris's approach has helped solidify support in states that had become potential toss-ups.

Harris is leading in some national polls and is effectively tied with Trump in swing states.

The success of Harris's campaign strategy may have a limit due to the evenly divided nature of America.

Key issues for the Democrats include abortion rights and immigration, which are crucial for winning over voters.

Harris has been more vocal about immigration than Biden and has an opportunity to redefine the Democrats' stance on the issue.

The strategy of focusing on emotions and personal connection could be a winning approach for Harris in the November election.

Transcripts

There's been

a tendency among Democrats

to get exasperated

at the American people

for not voting their material interests

for policies

that would help them

better their conditions.

They wonder is the title of a book

Raising the Concern goes

What's the Matter with Kansas?

And what they really mean is,

What's the matter with America?

But in recent years,

a growing body of scholarship has shown

that people don't

tend to vote rationally,

but rather use voting

to express themselves

in emotional, ideological and moral ways.

This view of human behavior,

which I would associate with scholars

like Daniel Kahneman and Jonathan Haidt,

sees elections as involving a great deal

of intangible intuition and passion.

Voters choose from the gut

and then rationalize their

choice, consciously or not.

Kamala Harris's campaign

seems premised on

this latter intuition based approach.

Ever since she became the presumptive

nominee of the Democratic Party,

Harris has run

a remarkably focused

and disciplined campaign,

one that seems deliberately

light on substance and high on feelings.

You don't see the dozens of policy papers

that were a hallmark of Hillary

Clinton's 2016 campaign.

Harris has not yet given

extensive interviews

or done press conferences

which would force her

to detail her positions

on specific issues.

And we have an election to win.

Instead, she has introduced herself

to the American people

in entirely human terms,

presenting herself

as a dynamic,

warm, funny and optimistic person.

You think you just fell out

of a coconut tree?

It's heavy on vibes

and so far it seems to be working.

Her running mate pick

follows the same pattern.

The practical choice

would have been Josh SHAPIRO.

He is a smart, effective,

popular governor

of the swing state

with the most electoral votes.

The math makes sense.

Instead,

she chose the governor of a bluer state,

but one who projects an image

that has resonated

throughout the country.

A folksy, affable, kind hearted man.

The Tim Walsh

pick reminds us

that sometimes each issue is as important

as IQ.

This is a turning of the tables.

Donald Trump

and the Republicans

have tended to be masters

of the politics of emotion,

emphasizing strength and evoking fear.

But for now, Harris's hopefulness,

the sense of joy that Wolf

speaks of

on the campaign trail

appears to be dominating.

There's also a turning of the tables

in another sense.

In every presidential election

of the past three decades, until 2020,

the Democrats, now

the party of the college

educated class,

nominated someone

who had a degree from Harvard

or Yale at the top of the ticket.

But now, Harrison walls

are continuing the turn away

from the Ivy League,

begun by Biden and Harris.

And it is the Republicans

who have an all Ivy ticket

with one billionaire

and one venture capitalist.

Watch Tim Walsh's video

during his first campaign for governor,

giving voters

tips on how to fix a burned out

headlight harness with an $8 part.

It's hard to imagine

Barack Obama doing that.

So far, the Harris

approach

has allowed her to write

the sinking Democratic ship,

solidly blue states

that had turned into potential toss ups.

And now back in the blue column.

She's leading

Trump in some national polls

and is effectively

tied in the swing states.

But this momentum probably has a ceiling.

America is evenly divided.

Since 2000,

presidential elections

have been close to foreign affairs,

with the exception of Obama's wins.

It seems likely that

this one will also be decided

by a few hundred thousand votes

in Pennsylvania, Michigan,

Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North

Carolina and Nevada. To prevail.

Harris will have to start filling

in the substance of her campaign.

The Democrats biggest strength

is the issue of abortion,

and she has been eloquent

and effective on it.

Their biggest weakness is immigration,

which galvanizes Republicans

and even some independents.

Harris has been speaking much more

about that than Biden did,

and she's been given a gift

by Donald Trump

when he forced Republicans

to abandon

the bipartisan immigration bill

that was basically

a Republican wish list.

He gave the Democrats

an escape hatch on the issue

rather than having

to defend their decide, oddly

weak and hapless

stand on the collapse

of the asylum process.

They could now simply point out

that they supported

a bipartisan,

tough crackdown at the border,

and Trump did not.

Harris has

already said she

would try to pass this bill if she wins,

and she should go further by pledging

to junk the entire asylum system

and build a new one.

We live in a different world

from when that system was created,

and our laws must reflect the reality

that there are now merely fans

of asylum seekers across the world.

Will the Harris strategy work?

It's only still,

and it will be a tough, close contest.

She has real vulnerabilities, but so far

she has chosen a somewhat unusual path

that could pay off in November.

Go to CNN dot com slash free

for a link to my Washington Post column.