The Biggest Bitcoin Warning Yet | WTF Is Going On With The ETFs?

Summary

In this video, Nicholas Meron from DataDash discusses the current state of the crypto market as of September 16th, 2024. He emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's price action, noting the establishment of higher lows but concern over the lack of higher highs. Meron alerts viewers to the significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which contradicts the narrative of institutional capital driving a new bull market. He also analyzes the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, expressing skepticism about the持续性 of the AI narrative in the market and warning of potential pullbacks in overhyped sectors like AI and meme coins.

Takeaways

• 📅 The video is from September 16th, 2024, discussing current crypto market trends.
• 📉 There's a concern over Bitcoin's price action, with lower highs and a struggle to reclaim moving averages.
• 🐂 The crypto market is at a critical juncture, with bulls needing to show strength or risk further decline.
• ⚠️ A significant narrative in the crypto space is the lack of ETF inflows, which is contrary to expectations of a new bull market.
• 🤔 The presenter is baffled by the lack of discussion around the importance of ETF inflows for Bitcoin's price direction.
• 📈 The video discusses the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, with many showing weak price action.
• 📊 The presenter highlights the importance of watching moving averages to understand market momentum and potential.
• 💡 A warning is issued about the potential for large sellers to distribute their holdings in the market, affecting prices.
• 🚫 The presenter advises caution, suggesting that now might not be the best time to heavily invest in the market due to lack of clear upward momentum.
• 🔄 The video concludes with a call to focus on data and price action, and to be patient for market opportunities.

Q & A

What is the main concern Nicholas Meron raises about the current state of Bitcoin?

Nicholas Meron is concerned about the lack of ETF inflows into Bitcoin, which he sees as a key narrative that could have led to a new bull market but is not showing up, potentially impacting the price negatively.

What does Nicholas Meron suggest about the price action of Bitcoin?

Nicholas Meron suggests that Bitcoin has established a higher low but is still establishing lower highs, indicating a critical moment for the bulls to show up and reclaim the 21-day moving average.

What is the significance of the 21-day moving average in the current Bitcoin market context according to Nicholas Meron?

The 21-day moving average is significant because it represents a potential support level for Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin cannot hold above this moving average, it may lead to a breakdown and further decline in price.

Why is the ETF inflow situation concerning according to Nicholas Meron?

Nicholas Meron is concerned because the ETF inflows, which were expected to bring institutional capital into Bitcoin, are showing net outflows instead. This could indicate a lack of institutional buying pressure and might contribute to a bearish market.

What does Nicholas Meron think about the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin?

Nicholas Meron believes that altcoins are not showing the desired outperformance against Bitcoin, which is a concern as it suggests a lack of momentum and potential for further downside.

What is Nicholas Meron's stance on the current AI narrative in the market?

While Nicholas Meron acknowledges the potential of AI and its disruptive impact, he advises caution and suggests waiting for clear signs of market momentum before getting involved in AI-related plays.

Why does Nicholas Meron mention the importance of waiting for price momentum before investing in altcoins?

Nicholas Meron emphasizes waiting for price momentum because many altcoins are showing lower highs and lack clear upward trends, which could indicate a risky investment environment without a strong bullish signal.

What does Nicholas Meron suggest about the current state of Ethereum and its future prospects?

Nicholas Meron suggests that Ethereum is struggling, with a broken 100-month moving average and a lack of innovation in the DeFi space, which might lead to further price decline.

What is Nicholas Meron's view on the role of institutional capital in the crypto market?

Nicholas Meron views institutional capital as a significant factor in the crypto market's price dynamics. He is concerned that the absence of institutional buying, as indicated by ETF outflows, could lead to a bearish trend.

How does Nicholas Meron analyze the current market conditions for stocks and equities in relation to the AI narrative?

Nicholas Meron analyzes the current market conditions by looking at the performance of companies like Nvidia and the FANG stocks, noting their resilience and the potential for a correction after a period of rallying based on the AI narrative.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Crypto Market Analysis and Bitcoin's Key Narratives

Nicholas Meron from DataDash discusses the state of the crypto market as of September 16th, 2024. He emphasizes the lack of discussion around Bitcoin's key narratives that could influence a new bull market. Meron focuses on price action, altcoin performances relative to Bitcoin, and the AI narrative. He highlights the importance of the 21-day moving average and the potential for a market downturn if certain support levels aren't maintained. Meron also expresses concern over the lack of ETF inflows into Bitcoin, suggesting that this could be a significant factor in the market's performance.

05:02

📉 ETF Outflows and the Impact on Bitcoin's Price

Meron delves into the issue of ETF outflows and their potential impact on Bitcoin's price. He discusses the significance of the outflows from products like GBTC and iBIT, noting that these outflows are changing the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin. Despite some people dismissing the importance of GBTC outflows, Meron argues that they are crucial. He raises concerns about the lack of institutional capital coming into Bitcoin and the potential for a market downturn if this trend continues, also touching on the broader implications for altcoins.

10:03

🚀 The Struggle of Altcoins and the Search for Innovation

Nicholas Meron addresses the struggle of altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, against the backdrop of Bitcoin's performance. He criticizes the lack of innovation in the DeFi space and the inability of altcoins to outpace Bitcoin's performance. Meron points out that many altcoins are showing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. He advises caution, suggesting that investors should wait for clearer signs of an uptrend before investing in altcoins.

15:04

📊 Analyzing Market Trends and the Dangers of Insider Selling

Meron continues his analysis by discussing the broader market trends, including the performance of equities and the potential impact of the AI narrative on the market. He warns of the dangers of insider selling in the crypto industry, suggesting that many projects lack strong fundamentals and that insiders are distributing their tokens to unsuspecting investors. He advises a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of waiting for clear signs of market momentum before investing.

20:06

💹 The AI Narrative in Tech Stocks and Crypto

Nicholas Meron explores the AI narrative's influence on tech stocks like Nvidia and the broader market, comparing it to Bitcoin's performance. He discusses the potential for AI to drive market disruptions but also cautions about the historical patterns of market corrections following periods of rapid growth. Meron suggests that investors should be aware of these patterns and consider waiting for clearer signs of sustained market momentum before making investment decisions.

25:06

🔍 The Importance of Data and Price Action in Crypto Investing

In the final paragraph, Meron reiterates the importance of focusing on data and price action when investing in crypto. He reflects on the past few months of Bitcoin ETF outflows and the need for investors to be objective and patient. Meron stresses that the market should dictate investment opportunities, and investors should avoid making impulsive decisions based on bias or hype.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, Bitcoin is a central theme as the speaker discusses its price action, ETF inflows and outflows, and its potential to lead into a new bull market. The speaker mentions Bitcoin's price struggle and the significance of its movement against the 21-day moving average.

💡Bull market

A bull market is a period of time in the economy when the stock market or a particular security is rising or is expected to rise. It is characterized by optimism, investment, and a rise in prices. The video discusses the hope for a new bull market in the crypto space, particularly for Bitcoin, and the factors that might influence this, such as institutional investment and market sentiment.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. They are digital currencies that use blockchain technology to facilitate secure transactions. In the video, the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin is discussed, with the speaker noting how altcoins are currently setting lower highs and how their performance is tied to Bitcoin's market movements.

💡ETF inflows and outflows

ETF inflows and outflows refer to the net amount of money coming into or going out of an exchange-traded fund. In the context of the video, the speaker is concerned about the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which could indicate a lack of institutional interest or confidence in the Bitcoin market, potentially impacting its price.

💡Moving averages

A moving average is a widely used indicator in technical analysis that helps smooth out price data to show longer-term trends. In the video, the speaker discusses the importance of Bitcoin reclaiming the 21-day moving average and the potential support or resistance levels provided by moving averages, which are critical for determining market trends.

💡Price action

Price action in trading refers to the movement of prices on a chart and the overall trend of a security or market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of analyzing price action for Bitcoin and altcoins, noting the establishment of higher lows and the struggle to establish higher highs as critical elements in assessing market health.

💡Capitulation

In trading, capitulation refers to a point where the majority of investors give up and sell their holdings, often at a loss, leading to a significant drop in price. The video mentions the potential for capitulation in the Bitcoin market if certain support levels are not maintained, which could lead to a further decline in prices.

💡DeFi (Decentralized Finance)

DeFi refers to financial services that are built on blockchain technology and operate without traditional intermediaries like banks. In the video, the lack of innovation in the DeFi space is discussed as a potential reason for the downtrend in Ethereum's price, as Ethereum is often associated with DeFi applications.

💡Meme coins

Meme coins are cryptocurrencies that originated as internet jokes but have gained value and following. The video discusses the struggle of meme coins to show momentum and the potential for insiders to distribute their holdings to unsuspecting buyers, highlighting the risks associated with investing in such coins.

💡AI narrative

The AI narrative in the video refers to the excitement and investment surrounding artificial intelligence technology and its potential impact on various markets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. The speaker discusses how this narrative might influence market trends and investor behavior, but also cautions about the potential for market corrections.

Highlights

Nicholas Meron discusses a potential breaking news narrative in the crypto space that could impact a new bull market for Bitcoin.

Emphasis on the importance of price action and its critical role in determining market trends.

Analysis of Bitcoin's recent price movement, highlighting the establishment of higher lows and the struggle to establish higher highs.

Discussion on the significance of Bitcoin reclaiming the 21-day moving average after a month.

Concerns about the potential breakdown of Bitcoin's price if it cannot hold above the 21-day moving average.

The role of ETF inflows and outflows in influencing Bitcoin's price and market sentiment.

Surprise at the lack of discussion around ETF outflows despite their importance to the market.

Detailed examination of ETF inflows and outflows for Bitcoin, including specific product analysis.

Critique of the current state of altcoins and their performance against Bitcoin.

Warning about the potential overvaluation and insider selling in the altcoin market.

Analysis of Ethereum's price action and its struggle with long-term moving averages.

Concerns about the lack of innovation in the cryptocurrency space and its impact on market momentum.

Discussion on the performance of Fetch, one of the few altcoins showing promise in the market.

Advice on trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of waiting for clear market momentum before investing.

Comparison of the current market situation with historical data to predict potential future trends.

Final thoughts on the importance of focusing on data and price action rather than personal bias when trading in the market.

Transcripts

what's going on everyone my name is

Nicholas meron here from data Dash and

today is September 16th of 2024 well

folks I hope you all are having a

fantastic day wherever you are because

in today's video I got to bring you guys

what I would feel is breaking news in

the crypto space something that I think

is really imperative to discuss but I'm

seeing little to no one talking about

and it has to do with one of the key

signifying narratives of Bitcoin and

what people hope believe hopefully

believe could lead into a new bull

market but is simply not showing up

we're going to be talking about that as

we go throughout today's video I want to

dive into the price action which is the

most critical element but we'll also be

talking about altcoins we're going to be

talking about how they're performing

against Bitcoin we're going to talk

about the AI narrative the whole shebang

we're going to do a full macro Monday if

you guys happen to enjoy my rambling

consider dropping a like it's a great

way to support the channel grab a cup of

coffee and let's go ahead and kick

things off so I want to start here by

talking about price action here guys so

far at the moment was nice that we have

been able to establish what appears to

be a higher low here versus the August

lows here in early September but we are

still so far establishing lower highs

this may change over the next couple

days Bulls are at really a make or break

moment where they've got to show up here

I can't emphasize this enough we have

finally for the first time in nearly a

month reclaimed the 21-day moving

average and after facing some resistance

at a lower price point of the 100 day

are seeing whether or not after this

3-day pullback that we can find support

and make that momentum moving average

our friending and it can make a baseline

of support for price to accelerate

higher and get back to New all-time

highs if that can't happen if we cannot

hold in the 21-day as we've echoed

before this is likely going to break

through and will probably go through the

prior lows we've seen as the lows have

been accelerating the capitulation been

building up and we could whip saw down

here into the 200 we moving average

which again can very well happen I know

some people think that's too pessimistic

too bearish well if you do hear me out

on this right while I do believe that

there's a chance the Bulls could reclaim

and we're going to wait and see if it

can get above those moving averages from

there that would be maybe my point I

Look to start maybe building some

positions or maybe we wait for the break

on the previous all-time highs

especially if you're trading altcoins

like us the big thing I want to bring

your attention to and I'm I'm baffled I

don't see many people really talking

about this and sending off the alarm

Bells because so many people were

talking about it as the key Narrative of

this cycle that this alongside the

having event was going to send Bitcoin

to $100,000 maybe even 200,000 and of

course if you believe the permes and

people who are using the same time

tested methods because it's what they've

always relied on like Plan B Etc who are

telling you the bitcoin's going to

500,000 you know do that is what you

will I'm here to give you guys something

that I think is very critical to analyze

and it's something that is very easy to

forget about unless you're really

meticulous about watching it and and

that is the ETF inflows and I understand

some people may say I'm beating it like

a dead horse some people might be

wondering Nick this is boring why are we

talking about the ETF inflows the reason

we're talking about is because we got to

get down to some fundamental questions

and we're going to get to it in a moment

but we need to ask some serious

questions here if ETF inflows are not

showing up to the plate and that's what

I want to talk about here today if you

take a look here this is the U

essentially bi-weekly

analysis of uh this basically it's

monthly but so far uh we're seeing the

bi-weekly increase or increase of

Bitcoin across the board in these ETP

products and what we see here very

clearly is that across the board we have

a net outflow again and a pretty

significant one right around 5 to 6,000

Bitcoin being pulled out now I

understand a lot of people say Nick like

you know these are two weeks here maybe

things changed towards the end of the

week and this is probably just gbtc

outflows but I want to take time to

break it down because it can be very

easy to miss that if you take a look at

even ibit this is the Premier the

premier ETF for Bitcoin we can see here

that with ibit we have less than a

couple Bitcoin being added here right in

fact oh te actually technically here no

yeah I I was seeing that right here

before essentially this is a net outflow

I apologize so I B actually saw weekly

outflows

35759 Bitcoin down to 357 277 and yes

you've got gbtc outflows playing a role

in that but that's about half of the

story you've got ibit outflows you've

got

a Fidelity in this case or fbtc seeing

significant outflows and of course you

have some ETFs here that are seeing

slight increases but net overall it's

about half of it coming from the other

ATP products as well as another half

from gbtc now I want to make one thing

clear here a lot of people negate gbtc

and say that this doesn't matter it

absolutely does and I I want to make

that very Crystal Clear guys there are

things where we can debate about things

we can kind of have differences of

opinion the gbtc outflows irrespective

of if the Bitcoin are going to other ETP

products or is being withdrawn is

absolutely changing the supply and

demand Dynamic of Bitcoin right this was

the original spot ETP product it was an

exchange traded note converted into an

ETF once all the ETFs got approved by

the SEC irrespective though if there is

Bitcoin outflowing from this ETP product

it's got to go somewhere hopefully it

goes into one of the other ETP products

which is what I think in many cases is

happening because there's lower

management fees but even with that

it is still removing spot Bitcoin that

was already being held in these ETP

products in some cases there is a clear

outflow from the Genesis bankruptcy Etc

but here's the kicker right it's okay if

we see the other ETFs coming in and

seeing the increase basically absorbing

that Bitcoin and maybe taking on new

liquidity outside the market but what

we're seeing now is not just gbtc we're

seeing ibit we're seeing Fidelity the

most premier ETP products actually

seeing net outflows in significant ones

this should be sending alarm Bells I

don't care if someone's bullish or

bearish this is very concerning here

because at the end of the day well we

like to sit here and say we don't need

Wall Street Bitcoin is all about you

know decentralization let's get the big

Banks out right some people were against

the ETP products coming out and

institutions getting involved in Bitcoin

from a moral perspective if you are

coming to me on this channel guys as

much as I love Bitcoin for the

philosophical reasons that you do at the

same time we are talking about market

price and market price is not some

hypothetical thing it is a equilibrium

or or in a balance between supply and

demand and you've got to ask the

important question of if the ETF

products are not coming to save the day

if we do not have institutional Capital

coming and in fact institutional capital

is becoming that seller then who is

going to be the

buyer some will say dollar cost

averagers who are buying on coinbase uh

you know some family funds hedge funds

whatever guys we got to be real here we

are exhausted from our inflows into this

market right and it's been like this for

a while in fact over the next two weeks

if we don't really get back up here to

92,000 Bitcoin we will have essentially

outflowed Bitcoin from the ETB products

for nearly two months it's already Mon

and a half here right since back in Late

July towards the close of the month

so I I don't know how to paint this in

any different picture I wish I could be

more optimistic about it but you see

very clearly that this is having an

impact on price here and you've got a

lot of large sellers like the US

government that might continue to unload

you got Mount gaau distributions that

still going through at that moment a lot

of people who probably withdrew and

still haven't sold right that still

could play a weighing effect on

bitcoin's price here and I I want to

emphasize that again altcoins are not

you know void of this criticism in fact

they're even more of a concern for me

personally if Bitcoin isn't able to

really formulate an uptrend of higher

lows and higher highs because if Bitcoin

can't do that altcoins which are still

setting in lower highs here slightly

higher lows right this could easily

continue to break back down we are

getting way too comfortable with the 200

we moving average and I would expect a

lot more resiliency at this level a lot

more buyers coming in but to be fair

with the ETF inflows looking or outflows

for that matter looking the way they are

I can understand why altcoins are not

really catching a bid and people aren't

buying them up right these are things

that again we talk about within the

newsletter we also have our our midon

webinar coming up here guys uh later on

today if you guys want to sign up for

the dash report it's our newsletter here

on the channel we've been really trying

to warn about this trying to take a look

at it from a data perspective over the

last couple of months and a lot of our

momentum moving averages as well as some

of our key indicators that we utilize

are starting to Signal some warning

signs around bitcoin's price if you guys

want to get access to these additional

insights it's less than a dollar a day

less than a cup of coffee it's a great

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again you guys get a whole range of

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overall it's a great way to support the

channel and you get a ton of great

additional content but getting back to

this key like thesis here of of markets

really struggling at the moment we take

a look at alt coins especially in their

Bitcoin comparative pairs right it could

be one thing you know Bitcoins train up

a little bit of course all coins are

going up a little bit terms we care

about whether or not altcoins are

outpacing Bitcoin because if they aren't

we don't want to touch them with a 10-ft

pole why hold something that's going to

pay you less than the King right than

Bitcoin which is a very kind of probably

the safest play in crypto the most time

tested right we see ethereum here I

think ethereum is having a real uh

identity crisis right now uh the base

ecosystem as well as hundreds of layer

twos have just completely eaten alive uh

any kind of demand for eth uh not to

mention as well at the end of day I

understand some people say there are

positive feedback loop for E I think at

the end of the day guys defi as a

category all these even all these l2s

out there there are no new exciting

applications the space has not seen any

dramatic Innovation over the last couple

years and I really can't name you one

application I've had to use in the last

couple months where I was just like wow

Game Changer got to got to get excited

and bullish back crypto because of this

I remember back in defi summer I

remember back all

during the io era where the sky was the

limit everything was going to be

disrupted by blockchain and now I think

reality set in and the lack of

innovation is just is just abundantly

apparent and the way I know this is the

fact that we broke the 100 month moving

average back in the Summers we pointed

out in this channel it's not looking

good for E we have broken the long-term

multi-year line of support we struggled

and treated it as resistance rather than

support and have since then set lower

highs and lower lows I think that this

is just going to continue chartering

down until we get some significant Trend

reversal of some sort that signifies

that this trend this downtrend is over

I'm not touching it the same goes with

soul I mean salana obviously is in a

slightly better spot because it has all

the meme coin volume it was obviously an

upand cominging play in the last cycle

and many people believe that it could go

to new highs in this cycle we have not

broken our previous BTC highs from back

in September and November

2021 and since then it's looking like

the same game drawn out game of

distribution large insiders who bought

large stakehold of salana from the Ft

FTX bankruptcy I think are just cashing

in slowly and steady not to scare people

to still give people hope that this

thing can start to Charter higher well

you need not look further than the

actual price action we have not only

been stalling since back in December of

2023 so we are coming up here in a

couple months it will be a year but it's

well over 9 to 10 months now and now we

are struggling to we're actually using

the 200 day as resistance big change

from back here that was the point where

people were buying right sometimes not

even letting it touch the 200 day this

blue lines here that's now acting as

resistance and you got the 200 week

sitting right here real pretty waiting

for a retest not to mention at a range

of resistance back here in November 2023

and to put it in perspective to talk

about why this is so significant that's

another 25 27 or 28% correction so you

do not want to be buying into something

that's clear really showing no signs of

life and looks like it could easily pull

back here to a range that it's tested

back in the past year this was Prior

price ret testment back here resistance

maybe it can turn that into support

we'll see let's wait let's wait around

and see and maybe I'm wrong maybe it

starts trending up today I don't really

care about picking up these prices I

want to wait until it gets above those

moving averages and actually shows that

it's got some life to it I want to set

some standards here so I preserve and

protect my capital and it's this is like

the the kind of a big point that I want

to Echo guys is that so far the large

caps are looking really bad you're

seeing that some of the small caps in

certain narratives are are doing you

know pretty well considering this

environment but again even in the hot

narratives that we're excited about like

Bitcoin infrastructure dpen or AI

related plays meme coins some of the big

narratives we're focused on they're not

showing what we need to see just yet

Stacks while yes I love that it's been

neutral since June of 2024 against

Bitcoin so it's not bleeding at the

moment we are still seeing that it's

struggling at that 100 day moving

average same exact thing as the last few

times it was not able to break through

there it's another point of distribution

makes me think here that we're coming

down here at a minimum to this line of

support again and are just going to

continue consolidating for a while no

serious Trend ordinals against Bitcoin

or Ori right pretty much neutral since

where it was back in May which is good

right we're not in a significant

downtrend like we were back in the past

and we are given the foundation maybe

having a chance to break through we're

on that 21 moving average but the 21-day

is pretty neutral we're just again going

sideways we're not trending higher and

using that 21 days as real support for

higher lows and higher highs so I'm not

in any serious rush to try to to try to

bet that this is an official bottom here

and that it's just going to Trend up

from here I don't mind paying a slight

premium I want to make sure that there's

momentum I want to set real standards

here before I'm going to be building

positions and we can see this across the

board in other Bitcoin infrastructure

plays you know you're getting these kind

of small pop offs in Zeta chain for

example we had a really nice run up back

here in August faded all of those gains

we got a smaller move yesterday on

Sunday and it just seems like we just

can't even catch a serious bid any

opportunity where markets are moving

higher someone is selling and this again

is something that I'm going to Echo here

is a very important Point guys there are

so many altcoins out there um you know

there are so many different you know

loose narratives that really don't have

any fundamentals backing them up Beyond

even just meme coins and I want you guys

to keep in mind that anytime there's

upward price action and you're seeing

people selling which establishes these

kind of lower highs and lower lows that

lets you know that there are a ton of

insiders who were selling you on the

idea that it's going to go to some price

and they are slowly but steadily

Distributing getting rid of their

positions VCS Angel Investors insiders

in the

team they have every incentive to do it

that you know they want to get out

before the other people's tokens unlock

and that's how thing has been working

for the last couple years just launch a

new token slowly but steadily sell it

make millions of dollars that's what

that's what essentially they're doing

and unfortunately it's so sad that if

you if you don't really focus on

fundamental projects that have real good

token economics they're trying to do

something real you can easily get

trapped in these projects U there are

more serious plays I would say like

render but even render here lower highs

still we caught a slightly higher low

here but the fade on that recent High

was really bad not to mention it looks

like we're rolling back over we can't

hold in the 21-day not a good look here

any potential I'm not really want to

look for support lines in such a short

period of time but if you were looking

for one there maybe a wedge pattern here

between the previous points of

resistance right kind of rough there but

you can see what I'm kind of getting at

didn't hold it broke through not a good

sign to see so that for me is a really

big warning sign for the dpin narrative

U we can see here fetch one of the

strongest place here in the market we

wrote about this in the dash report as

one of our trade setups back I think in

in July or in August um I think it's was

back in July and stuff we were kind of

talking about this as a range really for

the past couple months we really fixated

on fetch being a play that could show

some serious promise here at this range

and what you know so far that's really

paid off for those who took the trade uh

we are now testing up at the 200 a one

of the few alt coins that's actually

doing this and it's well above its

21-day moving average and it's had

multiple retests on that 21-day moving

average on good vol

so this is one of the few silver

lightings here in the market one of the

few plays that actually looks kind of

nice um but if I go here through meme

coins right but they are still

struggling here if we take a look on the

daily time frame just going sideways

turning the 200 day which could have

been support before into clear

resistance no serious ability to get

above the 21-day moving average it's

just price analysis guys the moving

averages don't lie I'm not trying to be

negative or criticize these but keep in

mind these meme coins guys I'm all about

trading the trend we made great money

back when there was a ton of liquidity

in the space back in q1 we we made we

just kept going from mcoin to mcoin

spotted a lot of great charts made some

great returns risked minimal capital and

make great returns overall for our

portfolios but if the momentum isn't

there and you've got tens of billions of

dollars of supposed value in mem coins

that gives a lot of opportunity for the

Insiders who create these things to just

slowly distribute and unload positions

into any optimism any liquidity that's

willing to come in and speculate that's

the exit liquidity for insiders uh and

it's clearly showing that they don't

have much confident in this confidence

in this market if they did then they

would be holding and selling at a much

higher price range but they're doing it

down here rather than up here what does

that tell you it tells you that they've

got a lot of empty bags of sand and

they're ready to sell it to you I I I

know it sounds cynical I know it sounds

mean I'm just here to let you know that

there are some really nasty players in

the crypto industry and they will do

that and if you can observe the clear

lack of fundamentals and exciting

there's the lack of momentum versus say

2017 or 2021 and the lack of new money

and new participants coming in I think

they smell blood in the water and I

think you should too until we see those

signs momentum return guys I don't think

you should be risking so much of your

liquidity in this market and we can see

that across the board both in Bitcoin

the broader indices the large caps like

ethereum and salana and you can see it

in practic Ally any altcoin you want to

take a look at in the market there are

very few exceptions fetch maybe being

one of them right so I just say that as

a bit of a warning here and I also

wouldn't just bring this criticism onto

crypto you know there's obviously the

talking point of equities you know so

far equities are holding up relatively

resiliently around the AI narrative

Nvidia for example is really just uh you

know a couple percentage points away

from its PRI high it's been around $120

a share previous high was at 140 we're

not even coming down to touch that 200

day moving average but seeing the same

signs here I want to make it very clear

if we step back in history here to what

we saw at Bitcoin the inability to

really make the 21-day your friend right

you can see here same thing here with

uptrends when you really get to that

Breakaway right when you're really in an

uptrend the 21 days where price should

be bouncing and so long as it's riding

on there you're going to have Gap UPS

you're going to have continued

acceleration price to the upside that's

what you want to see that's where the

fund really begins right see it over

here is what we saw over here but when

there's Cho at that 21 day when you're

kind of waxing and waning slowly kind of

going and peing and troughing over that

21 day and a kind of waving

formation that gives me a couple of

early warning signs that I should be a

little bit cautious it doesn't mean that

this can't reclaim and and whip allw

higher right we saw that over here right

we were able to turn the 100 day into

support multiple times finally we

squeezed up higher here and then we

start another uptrend but it's always a

cause for a little bit of concern the

semiconductor again similar to back in

that same time range like in October

2023 it's coming down in that 200 day

twice here right we've still got a ways

to go before we get to those highs uh we

still got to test the 100 day and see if

we can set in a higher high here versus

the one back in August so again there

are some signs here not to mention Fang

this is something that I think you guys

should really be made aware of the Fang

index which is Facebook Amazon Netflix

and Google right so we're not talking

about apple or Microsoft here or or

Tesla but these companies these stocks

here had one of their biggest bottom to

top

uptrends like the one from here in 2016

here to 2018 here from December 2018

here to August 2021 we had the biggest

one here from November 20122 here to the

new all-time highs in July around 212%

183% before

162% so Fang stocks have recovered

extensively off of the AI hype and the

broader AI narrative Silicon Valley is

shoving AI down everyone's throat and

while I do think that there's definitely

some exciting potential here yes I do

believe chat TBT and generative AI has

some place in this world as a piece of

technology and I think that there's

definitely that ability for us to have

some kind of s-curve moment where AI

Innovation really accelerates and it

disrupts the world in a really big way

right I want you to keep cautious about

these shortterm intervals here within

markets these kind of 2-year rallies

that we have that are usually met with

pretty harsh Corrections if we don't

look at it both ways and understand that

these can go through some pretty harsh

pullbacks here a 38% pullback here a 60%

pullback I don't know what we could see

here realistically maybe even it's a

smaller one maybe we just come down to

the prior highs here still 25 26%

correction could be pretty brutal for

some people it' be best to be buying and

when there's actual clear signs of

momentum right now we are chopping

sideways we have no serious Trend you

you can wait here until it break a 300

if you really think that this is going

to accelerate higher and wait for

serious signs momentum or you can wait

for lower prices that's really the name

of the game here we don't want to buy

when there's chop in the market it's not

fun it's not clear it's not easy we

don't want that um and another thing

here as well is obviously our historic

line I I've talked about it many times I

know some might be tired of me bringing

it up but I will keep bringing up here

because because it wasn't relevant back

in 2022 and 2023 it is now we are back

up against this 995e long line of

resistance in the channel that we've

been in in the S&P 500 the S&P 500 is

probably the best index to measure the

stock market broadly speaking to measure

valuations and we can see that we are

just a few hundred points away we look

like we're ready to spring up and have a

really euphoric rally into all this rate

cut hype uh you know the rate cuts for

the fed and probably other central banks

that will follow it's got everyone

really Juiced up and excited that could

lead us here to 5900 points here on the

index the question remains when we get

there is it going to be some

breakthrough moment where we break

through and really just continue

rallying on because AI is going to be so

incredibly disruptive or are we in

accordance to history going to get shot

down at this level and have a pretty

harsh

pullback that's the ultimate question we

talked about that in last month's report

this is one of the many articles that we

put out uh where we talk about these

things actually it's in this month's

report so if you guys sign up for the

dash report you'll be able to kind kind

of read into that that's what we wrote

back in late August for the September

report this is going to be one of the

big question marks guys and there are a

few Key signs you have to look out for

in order to understand whether or not

this is really going to be a moment

where this kind of squeezes through and

goes through another year two long

hyperbolic parabolic rally here where a

lot of names do phenomenally well or if

it's going to be a period of time where

we correct lower when everyone least

expects it so anyways just to keep that

in mind here guys above all I think the

AI narrative is definitely something

that's interesting but we are going to

have to see if price action canes to

show to the play if the markets really

perceive that that narrative is still

here to stay and that the demand for

gpus the demand for data infrastructure

around AI is going to continue to pick

up um it's a very interesting thing to

to kind of keep in our radar and that'll

also play into some of the crypto AI

related plays like fetch as well as

plays like render uh that play into the

GPU market so that's it for today's

video guys again keep in mind this big

takeaways on bitcoin from Price action

to the ETF inflows or outflows in this

case I have to keep correcting myself

here Fe is weird I wouldn't have thought

we'd be seeing outflows uh multiple

times throughout the past few months um

you know considering that people really

saw this as being kind of The Floodgate

to open up money that's just been

sitting on the sidelines forever into

the Bitcoin Market I I certainly would

say that while yes we've got a couple

tens of millions of dollars here in

Bitcoin

ETFs people were talking about like it

was going to be hundreds of billions you

know coming into the space and it was

just going to be a huge Catal that was

going to drive Bitcoin up in into the

stratosphere and we are not seeing that

here so just keep that in mind here

focus on the data focus on price action

try to get your bias out of it and

that's a big area where a lot of people

are going to mess up here guys over the

next couple months we got to listen to

price and price starts trending I'll get

back on the bandwagon I'm going to start

trading in some of the old coin sectors

that we're watching that are showing

strength and we'll be able to make great

money again but we got to wait for the

market to give us that opportunity

because if you don't if you're impatient

if you let the market take advantage of

you you will lose money they will take

that liquidity from you and it's a it's

a really cold reality about markets you

got to be smart about it just here to

look out for you guys as much as I can

you got to make your own decisions at

the end of the day I appreciate you all

sticking around if you made it this far

consider dropping a like I hope you guys

enjoyed this video much love for all of

you out there and I'll see you guys in

the next video on Monday take care

everyone