Why Can't Bitcoin Catch A Break?

Summary

In this video, Nicholas Meron from DataDash addresses the current stagnation in Bitcoin's price, questioning the demand-side factors beyond recent macro events like the German government's sell-off. He expresses concern over the lack of significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which could signal a weakening trend. Meron warns viewers to be cautious, suggesting that the market may not see the same bullish momentum as before, and advises waiting for clear upward trends before investing.

Takeaways

• 🗓️ The video was published on September 4th, 2024, and discusses the current state of Bitcoin and the crypto market.
• 📉 Bitcoin is experiencing a downturn, with lower highs and a struggle to maintain short-term moving averages.
• 🌐 The demand for Bitcoin is a significant concern, with the video questioning who the next set of buyers might be.
• 🏦 The video discusses the impact of macro events, such as the German government's actions and the distribution from Mt. Gox, on Bitcoin's price.
• 🤔 The role of Bitcoin ETFs as a potential catalyst for a new bull market is examined, with a focus on recent inflow and outflow trends.
• 📊 Data from Hleb Trading shows a decrease in Bitcoin being added to ETFs, raising concerns about the demand-side support.
• 📉 The video highlights a potential price drop to the $50k range due to the weakening trend and lack of significant buying support.
• 🔄 The presenter suggests skepticism about the effectiveness of Bitcoin ETFs in driving the market and the need for new catalysts.
• 📊 The presenter discusses the importance of cycle analysis and the potential for traditional cycle theories to become less reliable.
• 💡 The video concludes with advice on trading discipline, emphasizing the importance of not fighting the market trend and waiting for clear signals of a new uptrend.

Q & A

What is the main concern discussed by Nicholas Meron regarding Bitcoin's current market situation?

Nicholas Meron expresses concern about the demand side of Bitcoin, questioning who the next set of buyers will be and whether the current market has enough demand to outweigh the selling pressure.

Why does Nicholas Meron consider the recent lack of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs as concerning?

Nicholas Meron is concerned because the lack of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicates a potential decrease in institutional interest and demand, which could negatively impact Bitcoin's price in the long term.

What does Nicholas Meron suggest about the effectiveness of Bitcoin ETFs in driving the market?

Nicholas Meron suggests that the effectiveness of Bitcoin ETFs in driving the market is diminishing, as evidenced by the recent low inflows, which could signal a lack of new capital entering the Bitcoin market.

How does Nicholas Meron view the current technical indicators for Bitcoin?

Nicholas Meron views the current technical indicators for Bitcoin as bearish, pointing out lower highs and lower lows, as well as the inability to break above short-term moving averages.

What is Nicholas Meron's stance on the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will catalyze a new bull market?

Nicholas Meron is skeptical about the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will catalyze a new bull market, urging viewers to remain cautious and to consider the actual data on ETF inflows.

Why does Nicholas Meron believe the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle may no longer be applicable?

Nicholas Meron believes the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle may no longer be applicable due to changes in market dynamics, including the introduction of ETFs and other institutional investment vehicles, which could alter the asset's historical price patterns.

What advice does Nicholas Meron give to traders regarding entering the market during a dip?

Nicholas Meron advises traders to wait for higher lows and higher highs before entering the market, suggesting that it's better to wait for a clear trend reversal rather than trying to catch a falling knife.

How does Nicholas Meron analyze the broader market implications for Bitcoin and other assets?

Nicholas Meron analyzes the broader market implications by considering the performance of other assets like equities and noting a potential divergence from Bitcoin's performance, suggesting that a downturn in other markets could affect Bitcoin as well.

What is Nicholas Meron's opinion on the current state of Bitcoin technological advancement and user adoption?

Nicholas Meron suggests that the technological advancement and user adoption of Bitcoin may not be expanding at the same pace as before, which could affect the asset's price momentum and overall market performance.

What is the Dash Report, and how does Nicholas Meron recommend it to his audience?

The Dash Report is a newsletter service that Nicholas Meron recommends to his audience as a way to get in-depth market analysis, trade setups, and access to webinars, which can provide additional insights and support for trading decisions.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Bitcoin's Struggle and Market Demand Concerns

Nicholas Meron from DataDash addresses the current state of Bitcoin, noting its decline since late August and the struggle to maintain short-term 4-Hour moving averages. He discusses the importance of demand in the market, questioning who the next buyers will be and whether Bitcoin ETFs can act as a catalyst for a new bull market. Meron points out the lack of significant inflows into ETFs from July to August, contrasting this with the period of June to July where ETFs saw substantial demand. He emphasizes the need for skepticism regarding the potential of ETFs to drive Bitcoin's price and suggests that the market is weakening.

05:02

📈 The Diminishing Role of ETFs in Bitcoin's Market Dynamics

Nicholas continues by analyzing the diminishing role of ETFs in supporting Bitcoin's price, highlighting a significant outflow in April followed by minimal inflows in May and June. He explains the rotation of funds fromGBTC to lower-cost ETFs and the implications this has on the market. Meron also discusses the broader market context, including the performance of equities and the potential for a divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets. He advises viewers to be cautious, suggesting that the market may continue to face downward pressure unless new catalysts emerge.

10:04

🚀 Waiting for Market Trends Before Investing in Altcoins

In this section, Nicholas shifts the focus to altcoins, stating that he will be trading in them with the goal of making profits. He outlines the conditions necessary for altcoins to trend higher, such as Bitcoin establishing new highs and ETF inflows increasing. Meron emphasizes the importance of not fighting the market trend and waiting for clear signs of upward momentum before investing. He also touches on the recent downturn in the stock market, suggesting that a similar cautious approach should be taken with equities.

15:05

💡 Key Market Lessons and the Importance of Discipline

Nicholas concludes by sharing key lessons for successful trading and investing. He stresses the importance of not trying to catch falling knives in the market and the value of discipline in taking profits ahead of time. Meron encourages viewers to consider the Dash Report for more in-depth market analysis and to join the webinar for direct interaction. He reiterates the need to focus on market trends and velocity, rather than hoping for immediate recoveries or relying on past models that may no longer be applicable.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's current market trends, its struggle to maintain price stability, and the role of Bitcoin ETFs in influencing its demand and price.

💡Crypto community

The crypto community refers to the collective group of individuals, organizations, and enthusiasts who are involved with or interested in cryptocurrencies. The video addresses concerns within this community about Bitcoin's recent price movements and the implications for its future.

💡Price of Supply and Demand

In economics, the price of a commodity is determined by the balance between supply and demand. The video emphasizes the importance of demand, particularly the influx of new buyers, in supporting Bitcoin's price. The speaker expresses concern about a potential lack of demand, which could lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's value.

💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)

ETFs are investment funds that are traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. In the context of the video, Bitcoin ETFs are a new avenue for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning the cryptocurrency. The speaker discusses the role of ETFs in potentially driving a new bull market for Bitcoin.

💡Capital Inflows

Capital inflows refer to the movement of money into an investment or market. The video highlights the significance of capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs as an indicator of market sentiment and potential price support. A decrease in inflows could signal a weakening demand for Bitcoin.

💡Moving Averages

In technical analysis, moving averages are used to smooth out price data to show longer-term trends or cycles. The video mentions Bitcoin's struggle with short-term moving averages as a bearish signal, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.

💡Market Cycles

Market cycles refer to the recurring patterns of economic activity that follow one another in a regular sequence. The speaker in the video discusses the concept of market cycles in relation to Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might be entering a new phase that could affect its price trajectory.

💡Capitulation

In trading, capitulation refers to a point where investors give up and sell their holdings, often leading to a price drop. The video suggests that buying during capitulation events can be a strategy for those looking to invest in Bitcoin at lower prices.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The video briefly touches on the broader cryptocurrency market, including altcoins, and how the trends observed in Bitcoin can influence or be reflective of trends in the altcoin market.

💡Market Sentiment

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude or tone of investors toward a particular security or market. The video discusses the importance of market sentiment in driving capital inflows into Bitcoin and the potential impact on its price.

💡FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

FOMO is a psychological phenomenon where people feel an urge to buy assets, such as stocks or cryptocurrencies, for fear of missing out on potential gains. The video warns against acting on FOMO in the current market conditions, where the risk of further price declines might outweigh the potential rewards.

Highlights

Bitcoin's current struggle to maintain its price, despite recent positive developments.

Concerns about the demand side of Bitcoin, questioning who the next buyers will be.

Analysis of Bitcoin's price action, showing lower highs and a weakening trend.

The impact of macro events, such as government sales, on Bitcoin's price.

Discussion on Bitcoin ETFs and their role in driving the market.

Data on ETF inflows and outflows, indicating a potential slowing of demand.

The importance of new capital inflows for Bitcoin's future price movements.

Critique of the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will automatically lead to a new bull market.

Comparison of Bitcoin's current market behavior with historical cycles.

The potential for diminished returns and a slower pace of Bitcoin's growth.

The need for higher lows and higher highs as a signal to enter the market.

The role of market trends in determining trading strategies for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Correlation between Bitcoin's price action and the broader stock market.

Advice on market discipline and not fighting the trend in investments.

The Dash Report as a resource for in-depth market analysis and trade setups.

Final thoughts on the importance of market velocity and inflows for Bitcoin's future.

Transcripts

what's going on everyone my name is

Nicholas meron here from dat to Dash and

today September 4th of 2024 well folks I

hope you all are having a fantastic day

wherever you are because in today's

video I want to have a blunt honest

one-on-one conversation with you guys

and try to answer a big question in the

minds of a lot of people in the Bitcoin

and crypto community and that is why is

it why does it seem that Bitcoin can't

cash a break now I know a lot of people

will probably jump to the conclusion

that a lot of people have been

discussing which is the recent cide

pressure that we had from the German

government from Mount Gau a lot of big

macro cell set events but I think

there's another important piece of the

puzzle it is not just a question when

you're determining price of Supply in

the market it's a matter of demand and I

think this is probably the more

concerning end that we have to discuss

we got a lot to unpack here in today's

video so if you haven't to enjoy it

consider dropping a like it's one of the

greatest ways you can support the

channel and let's go ahead and kick

things off I'm not here today to spread

a lot of fear guys I don't want to kind

of get straight to the point keep this

video relatively short since we last

spoke on Monday a Bitcoin has continued

to dwindle down here it's struggling on

its short-term 4-Hour time frame moving

averages after setting in a lower

significant high back here in late

August from its prior relative high in

Late July so coming up here on nearly a

month later we send lower highs and

we're still dwindling lower and spending

more and more time towards that lower

range now to mention as you all if you

watch the channel frequently there other

longer term moving averages the 21-day

pocket the 100 and 200 day we're

spending time much closer to those

long-term moving averages and it's a

signal that we are weakening in the

trend here now obviously there was a lot

of cide pressure here I'm not going to

negate that fact Mount distributions the

German government selling these are huge

salite events but the thing I want to

bring to you attention here is something

much more concerning and it is the much

more important part of the equation when

it comes to determining where price is

going to go long term and that is the

demand side who is going to be the next

set of buyers the next wave of people

who will actually come in and Market buy

Bitcoin essentially what I mean by that

is they're going to buy Bitcoin at the

best available price and they're coming

in with sizable Capital enough to

outweigh saleside pressure right so

that's the question we have to have ask

and I know a lot of people probably say

well we've got the Bitcoin ETFs now

that's the new Catalyst that's the

narrative that's what's going to allow

Bitcoin to recover here and be able to

really kick off a new bull market maybe

going up to $100,000 or more if not and

whatever happens beyond that will happen

right whatever it's going to be but I

want you guys to remain a bit skeptical

that because there are a lot of people

telling you that that's going to happen

I want you to take a look at these

numbers here now this is from hle 15

capital good page you you should follow

them over on Twitter but essentially

like a couple other profiles on on X or

on Twitter essentially they compile all

of the data around the ETFs it's

publicly available knowledge but

sometimes it can be difficult to pull

the information off Chain by yourself so

it's good to use these nice graphs here

and I want to go ahead and get straight

to the point here that essentially from

the close of July to the close of August

just had it back a couple days ago we

saw less than a, new Bitcoin being added

to the ETFs during this period of time

now mind you this is a period of time

where us government's been selling some

there's been knock Ox distribution still

going through the driven government the

ETFs have not been accelerating

massively now between June to July we

did see again initially throughout that

month a good amount of Bitcoin demand

coming in the ETFs to match that sell

pressure that's why we haven't had a

significant collapse with one of the

biggest distribution events in crypto

which is this reimbursement of holders

of Bitcoin who were using the magic the

Gathering online exchange or Mount gox

as it more commonly known um during that

period of time we had buyers coming in

but the month following we've had

practically no inflows coming in here

and this is very concerning here guys

this is not again I really want to Echo

this here I understand some people have

disagreements of opinion some people are

more bullish some people more bearish

there is no way to cut it here guys this

is the last major final narrative that

really can drive crypto from what I can

see and I've been in crypto for many

years I've traded in financial markets

since 2011 I started investing in

cryptos in 2016

2017 and for me to see that this is the

ETF this is the moment where Bitcoin is

becoming that mature institutionalized

asset we finally have it and multiple

months down the line we're now getting

to a point where those inflows are

really trying up a good way to visualize

this here right to just show you I'm not

trying to like spread fud or focus on

one month's worth of data one month is

not the end of the world but the problem

is that while we had a very strong

quarter one from January February March

where we really saw those inflows coming

in a month where we had

116,000 even with people outflowing from

gbtc net overall we had new spot Bitcoin

being stored in these ETF products and

now we see an April an outflow of 6,000

and may a decent month around

29592 and June 8700 in July again coming

to that that cell side pressure that was

in the market definitely helped buoy

price it probably would have been a lot

worse right now here this month less

than a

thousand and I know a lot of people will

jump to the conclusion and they'll say

Nick gbtc is still outflowing we can't

really Factor these numbers in this just

doesn't really count and it absolutely

does and the reason why it does this and

I say this so importantly is because the

gbtc product had already existing SP

Bitcoin in there and the thing is that

so many people don't realize they'll say

but you know ibit is increasing its

numbers or they'll point to whatever ETF

is is generally going up to justify the

thing is that those Bitcoin that are

going in there are very likely coming

from gbtc because gbtc product is much

more expensive so people are slowly but

steadily month by month getting smart

rotating their money and getting it

essentially into a lower cost ETF with a

much smaller maintenance fee right and

that's essentially what's been happening

here with these outflows and a lot of

these supposed new inflows ibit it's why

we have to look at the entire

spreadsheet here this is the most honest

way we can do it and when I look at this

and I see net overall that we are seeing

less than a th000 Bitcoin being add in

the past month that is showing me that

the buoy of support that the ETF used to

provide here during the cellet event is

no longer and if we start getting a lot

of whales coming in here a lot of

long-term holders who want to sell that

is not going to be good for Bitcoin

price the price action is already

showing it this weekly candle here the

inability to get about those short-term

moving averages another engulfing candle

here I mean we've had multiple lower

lows and lower highs here this to me

makes me not only believe that you're

you're at a minimum probably going down

here to the 50k range to touch that

General line of Support over time but

beyond that as we could be going even

lower because the more fundamental

question that should be on your mind and

on the minds of everyone it's on my mind

and I know it's on the minds of many

long-term holders of Bitcoin who already

have stacked a ton of SATs a lot of

Bitcoin they're sitting there wondering

who who's going to buy Bitcoin next

right A lot of people probably hadn't

been thinking about that because Bitcoin

has always gone up and to the right it's

always been one of the best performing

assets but now we have the ETFs we have

international ETFs many of which are

neutral or negative uh we we have every

single kind of exchange you could think

of about there from you know consumer

exchanges like coinbase and binance OTC

desks you have families and hedge funds

who if they want exposure they can get

it Pension funds can now get exposure to

bitcoin what is going to be the next

wave of capital that's really going to

drive this and I'm not here to say that

over the absolute long term guys if we

really zoom out here that Bitcoin can't

go up into the right you know slowly but

steadily but it is going to be at a much

much slower Pace than I think what a lot

of people are expecting and I think the

more important thing to just keep in

mind here is that not only are those

returns diminishing and they could

really start to get much more flat here

in the near term but beyond that I think

cycle analysis is dead we talked about

this months ago but I really want to

Echo this point here which is that I

don't think the previous you know 4year

cycle or expanding Cycle Theory which

got kind of broken in the last cycle a

lot of these methods and even the data

science models and traditional means of

measuring cycle tops are going to start

breaking they're not going to be working

and maybe those systems in place will

still be good you're finding

capitulation events I'm all for buying

Bitcoin during capitulation events

because if you can do it at the right

time then in that case you know when

things start to go back on the up and up

Bitcoin usually is still one of the best

performing assets but buying here when

we're revisiting the prior highs of the

2021 cycle 3 years ago practically

speaking right and we are struggling no

sorry excuse me more than 3 years ago if

you consider the April range if you want

to use November that's fine it's only

slightly higher but we're coming up

there and it's almost been 3 years and

we can't really catch a break we set in

slightly new higher levels and since

that it's just been distribution and

stagnation so my point here at the end

of the day is I'm not even here to say

that we can't kick off a new bull Mark

I'm not saying we can't go up higher but

set standards don't try to buy uh so

supposedly the dip here so many people

will tell you to do because it could

just keep on dipping I think the smart

way to go about this as a Trader is to

finally wait until we start seeing

higher lows and higher highs who knows

maybe we get that here maybe we get

support at 53,000 and essentially we can

start to reverse higher and set higher

relative highs my Big Goal above all is

that I'm going to be trying to make

money in this market and be trading in

altcoins and that is going to require a

few things I one it's going to require

that allcoins are finally trending

higher which they aren't yet we're down

here in the 200 week where we should be

bouncing enough strongly like we were

back here right at the the lows we

expected for price to come down to it

hit that Target perfectly LLY then it

rolled back over again we weren't

bearish enough supposedly and it went

all the way down here to 151 billion we

got a bounce off there up to 229 billion

but we're getting shot down at those

daily moving averages and now we're

getting real cozy in these long-term

spots we need to start seeing that

change and I'm not trying to pick

absolute bottoms I'm trying to wait

until the trend is presenting itself and

that is not going to happen in my view

in any significant way until Bitcoin

gets up and establishes new highs

because once it does that and we can

really start trending a new bu Market

once those ETF inflows start picking up

or we have some new buyer a new Catalyst

that gets the markets optimistic then

you can start to see optimism return but

for now the only type of buyers who are

coming in are buying during capitulation

they are not buying at those long-term

daily moving averages which used to be

acting as a means of support we saw that

here with the purple lines here which is

the 100 day back here in January there

was the perfect low Point once we got

above the 21 day as a confirmation of

momentum boom acceleration here same

back here support on the 100 day and 200

day pocket I'll just zoom in it so you

guys can see it a little bit better

right I'll turn off the drawings we can

see very clearly here we established

nice steady support there break above

the 21 Day Break above that prior

resistance range of 125 boom clear Trend

that is when the Easy Money the

life-changing returns are made and until

that really happens we have no reason to

try to fight the trend or try to fight

the market on hopes that Michael sailor

going to buy more Bitcoin on hopes that

plan B's model is going to work and then

we're going to 500k um you know the the

model of yesterday may very well not be

working today and I want to Echo that

that's not any like uh me being negative

that's just true my markets go through

clear Cycles over time and I think

Bitcoin has been through a decade long

positive expansion now we're getting to

a very important crus Pier of like you

know where's the technological

advancement of Bitcoin how many new

users are coming to bitcoin is Bitcoin

really you know in need of essentially

are there more people who really need

Bitcoin nowaday uh than there were say

yesterday or last week or a month ago or

a year ago or more people getting access

to bitcoin and sure probably those

numbers are slightly moving up a little

bit over time but they are not as

expansionary as they used to be and that

lack of velocity and momentum is going

to Harper asset prices as a whole and

that brings me here to talking about not

just Bitcoin or altcoins it even talks

about the topic of equities yesterday we

had a pretty big Smackdown right we've

been talking and I I'll be fair to say

when I get things right when I get

things wrong I mean we were talking

pretty high about equities the other day

back on Monday and Equity prices were

doing quite good comparative to bitcoin

there's a kind of growing Divergence if

you will uh versus the performance of

the two however yesterday not only did

Bitcoin get Smackdown as well as

altcoins but the S&P 500 the Nasdaq all

the major indices in the stock market

got a pretty big slam down after we saw

a spike in volatility well of course the

move in the S&P caused the spike in

volatility getting us back above the 200

week um back here where we were back a

month ago in the early part of August

and that was mainly driven by Nvidia

coming down

9.53% brutal day here for NVIDIA back

down to $18 per share looking like it's

steadfast after closing below the 100

day so looking like it'll probably might

you bounce up a little bit here in the

short term but I would I would probably

bet money that that's going to come down

to the 200 day moving average and this

brings me to my point here you know a

lot of people see it by directionally

that if you're you're positive or

negative on bitcoin at any given moment

you know is that you hate it or you love

it you know and that's not true I I love

Bitcoin for what it stands for I love

the the rules and protocol are

established for Bitcoin it's trustless

it is disruptive it is something that

challenges the the world order when it

comes to the central bank monetary

policy as a potential money de basement

hedge over the long run um so I don't

I'm not against those things what I'm

here to say though is that my goal is to

make money my goal is to protect and

preserve my capital and if I don't see

assets as a whole performing

well whether that's big Tech whether

that's you know the broader stock market

uh and whether that's crypto whether it

be Bitcoin or

altcoins I'm not really going to be

making that risk and I honestly don't

think at the end of the day guys you

should be so urgent to want to fomo into

the market on every single dip because

it can very well be that you get one dip

and another dip and it just keeps on

rolling down until finally someone

accumulates enough and ships the

trend that's the key goal in markets

because you got to be willing to not

fight the trend and not try to catch

falling knives but also not try to sell

the absolute top take profits ahead of

time be disciplined that's the kind of

stuff that's going to help you wi out

long term and be able to make life

changing returns so I wanted to share

this important lesson with you guys I

hope this proved valuable and if you

like this kind of insights if you like

this kind of balanced approach to how to

analyze markets I definitely recommend

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predict which way it's going to go off

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that's it for today's video guys again

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off on an annualized subscription but I

hope this video proved valuable for you

guys when it comes to this main topic of

the ETF we cannot ignore these numbers

guys seeing the negative month we had in

April one off would be okay but if we're

seeing months that are getting away from

the average which is

37,45 Bitcoin per month that's the

according average year that we have have

across all these months if we cannot

start getting back above that average I

have a feeling that we are going to

struggle big time to be able to continue

moving up in price we need velocity we

need major acceleration of inflows to

really kick off that new bull market a

major catalist of New participants and

so far we are just not seeing it and in

the place especially where we should be

seeing it that's it for today's video

everyone thank you all so much for

tuning as always I'll see you guys in

the next video on Monday take care

everyone