Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia Galef

Summary

This talk explores the impact of mindset on judgment and decision-making, contrasting the 'soldier mindset' with the 'scout mindset.' The soldier mindset, driven by emotions like defensiveness, leads to motivated reasoning, as exemplified by the Dreyfus Affair. Conversely, the scout mindset, characterized by curiosity, grounded values, and a desire for truth, promotes better judgment. The speaker argues that improving judgment isn't about acquiring more knowledge but changing our emotional responses to information.

Takeaways

• 🛡️ The 'soldier mindset' is characterized by a defensive stance, where individuals are motivated to protect their beliefs and attack opposing views, often unconsciously.
• 🔍 The 'scout mindset' involves a curious and open approach to information, aiming to understand and see the world as accurately as possible, even if it challenges one's own views.
• 📜 The Dreyfus Affair exemplifies how motivated reasoning can lead to grave injustices, as it did with the wrongful conviction of Alfred Dreyfus, influenced by anti-Semitic bias within the French Army.
• 🕵️‍♂️ Colonel Picquart's change of heart towards Dreyfus's innocence demonstrates the power of the 'scout mindset' to overcome personal prejudices and seek the truth.
• 🧠 Motivated reasoning, or 'soldier mindset,' is driven by unconscious motivations and can significantly influence our judgment and decision-making.
• 🔑 The key to adopting a 'scout mindset' lies in emotional traits such as curiosity, a value on truth-seeking, and a sense of groundedness where self-worth is not tied to being right about specific issues.
• 🌟 Good judgment is not primarily about intelligence or knowledge but is closely linked to emotional dispositions and the willingness to question one's own beliefs.
• 💡 The speaker advocates for cultivating a 'scout mindset' to enhance individual and societal judgment, suggesting that emotional shifts are more critical than mere intellectual knowledge.
• 🚀 To improve judgment, the speaker suggests we should focus on changing our emotional responses to being wrong or encountering contradictory information, rather than just acquiring more knowledge.
• ❓ The talk concludes with a call to introspection, asking individuals to consider whether they primarily yearn to defend their beliefs or to see the world as clearly as possible.

Q & A

What are the two contrasting roles described in the script?

The two contrasting roles described are the 'soldier' and the 'scout'. The soldier represents a mindset focused on defending one's own beliefs and attacking opposing views, while the scout symbolizes a mindset dedicated to understanding and seeking the truth, regardless of personal biases.

What historical event is used to illustrate the concept of 'motivated reasoning'?

The Dreyfus Affair in 19th-century France is used to illustrate the concept of 'motivated reasoning', where Alfred Dreyfus was falsely convicted of treason due to biased interpretations of evidence influenced by anti-Semitic sentiments within the French Army.

Why was Alfred Dreyfus initially suspected of espionage according to the script?

Alfred Dreyfus was initially suspected of espionage because he was the only Jewish officer at his rank in the French Army at a time when it was highly anti-Semitic. His handwriting was compared to that on a memo containing military secrets, and despite expert disagreement, it was deemed a match.

What is 'motivated reasoning' as described in the script?

'Motivated reasoning' refers to the phenomenon where unconscious motivations, desires, and fears shape the interpretation of information, leading individuals to defend ideas that align with their interests and attack those that do not, often unconsciously.

How did Colonel Picquart contribute to the Dreyfus Affair?

Colonel Picquart, initially assuming Dreyfus was guilty, later discovered evidence suggesting that the spying continued after Dreyfus was imprisoned and that another officer's handwriting matched the incriminating memo more closely. Despite facing resistance and even imprisonment himself, Picquart's pursuit of truth and justice eventually led to Dreyfus's exoneration.

What is the significance of the 'scout mindset' in the context of the script?

The 'scout mindset' signifies an approach to information and ideas that prioritizes accuracy and truth-seeking over defensiveness or bias. It is characterized by curiosity, open-mindedness, and a willingness to challenge one's own beliefs, which is contrasted with the 'soldier mindset' that is more focused on defending one's position.

What emotions are associated with the 'scout mindset' as per the script?

The 'scout mindset' is associated with emotions such as curiosity, pleasure in learning new information, and intrigue when encountering contradictory evidence. It also involves a sense of groundedness where one's self-worth is not tied to being right about specific topics.

How does the script suggest we can improve our judgment?

The script suggests that improving judgment is less about increasing knowledge or intelligence and more about cultivating a 'scout mindset'. This involves changing our emotional responses to be more open to new information, less defensive, and more curious and grounded.

What role do values play in determining one's mindset according to the script?

Values play a significant role in determining one's mindset. For instance, those with 'scout mindset' values are more likely to see testing one's own beliefs as virtuous and less likely to view changing one's mind as a sign of weakness.

How does the script differentiate between the soldier and scout mindsets in terms of self-worth?

The script differentiates the two mindsets by stating that individuals with a 'soldier mindset' often tie their self-worth to being right about their beliefs, whereas those with a 'scout mindset' are grounded and do not equate their self-worth with the correctness of their views on any particular topic.

Outlines

00:00

🛡️ The Soldier and Scout Mindsets

The speaker begins by inviting the audience to imagine themselves as soldiers in battle, emphasizing the heightened adrenaline and reflexive actions aimed at self-preservation and victory. This is contrasted with the role of a scout, whose purpose is to understand the environment, gather information, and identify obstacles without the intent to attack or defend. The speaker suggests that these roles can be metaphors for how we process information in daily life, and argues that good judgment and decision-making are largely influenced by the mindset we adopt. The historical case of Alfred Dreyfus, a French officer falsely accused of treason, is introduced to illustrate the consequences of 'soldier mindset' or motivated reasoning, where personal biases and motivations can lead to the misinterpretation of evidence and wrongful convictions.

05:04

🕵️‍♂️ The Impact of Motivated Reasoning

The speaker delves into the concept of 'motivated reasoning,' explaining how our unconscious desires and fears can shape our interpretation of information. Using examples from sports, politics, and policy debates, the speaker illustrates how people tend to defend their preconceived notions and discredit opposing views, even in the face of contradictory evidence. The story of Colonel Picquart, who eventually helped exonerate Dreyfus despite his own initial biases, is highlighted to demonstrate the 'scout mindset.' This mindset is characterized by a drive for truth and accuracy, curiosity, and a value system that prioritizes the integrity of beliefs over their correctness. The speaker emphasizes that adopting a scout mindset is more about emotional intelligence and self-awareness than raw intelligence or knowledge.

10:06

🌊 Cultivating the Scout Mindset

In the final paragraph, the speaker argues that improving judgment and decision-making is less about acquiring more knowledge and more about cultivating the right emotional attitudes. Drawing on the quote by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, the speaker suggests that what is most needed is not additional instruction in logic or economics, but a shift in how we feel about being wrong and encountering contradictory information. The speaker encourages the audience to aspire to a 'scout mindset,' one that is open to new information, curious, and grounded in the understanding that being wrong does not diminish one's self-worth. The talk concludes with a call to reflect on personal values and the desire to see the world as clearly as possible.

Keywords

💡Adrenaline

Adrenaline is a hormone that prepares the body for a 'fight or flight' response, increasing heart rate and blood flow to muscles. In the context of the video, it is mentioned to describe the heightened state of a soldier in battle, symbolizing the instinctive and reactive nature of the 'soldier mindset'. The speaker uses this term to contrast the instinctual reactions of a soldier with the calm, objective analysis of a scout.

💡Scout Mindset

The 'scout mindset' refers to an approach to information and decision-making that is characterized by curiosity, open-mindedness, and a desire for objective truth. The video emphasizes this mindset as essential for accurate judgment and decision-making. It is illustrated through the story of Colonel Picquart, who, despite his prejudices, sought the truth about Dreyfus's innocence, demonstrating the values of curiosity and grounded self-worth.

💡Soldier Mindset

The 'soldier mindset' is a term used in the video to describe a defensive and biased approach to information processing, where one's motivations and desires shape the interpretation of data. This mindset is exemplified by the officers who falsely convicted Dreyfus, as they were driven by unconscious motivations such as anti-Semitism, leading them to interpret evidence in a way that confirmed their preconceived notions.

💡Motivated Reasoning

Motivated reasoning is a psychological phenomenon where one's desires or fears influence the way they interpret information. In the video, this concept is central to understanding how the French officers were led to convict Dreyfus despite insufficient evidence. Their unconscious motivations to find Dreyfus guilty caused them to interpret ambiguous handwriting evidence as a confirmation of their suspicions.

💡Dreyfus Affair

The Dreyfus Affair was a real historical event where Alfred Dreyfus, a French Jewish officer, was wrongly convicted of treason based on flimsy evidence and anti-Semitic bias. The video uses this case to illustrate the dangers of motivated reasoning and the importance of the scout mindset. It shows how societal prejudices and the soldier mindset of the officers led to a miscarriage of justice.

💡Colonel Picquart

Colonel Picquart is a key figure in the Dreyfus Affair mentioned in the video. Initially, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty but later became convinced of his innocence after discovering new evidence. His转变 from a soldier mindset to a scout mindset is highlighted as an example of someone who overcame personal bias in pursuit of the truth, which is a central theme of the video.

💡Curiosity

Curiosity, in the context of the video, is presented as a driving force behind the scout mindset. It is the desire to learn and understand, even when new information challenges one's existing beliefs. The video suggests that individuals with a high level of curiosity are more likely to adopt a scout mindset, as they are open to new information and enjoy the process of learning, which is crucial for accurate judgment.

💡Values

Values are the principles or standards that guide one's behavior and decision-making. The video discusses how different values can lead to either a soldier or scout mindset. For instance, valuing the testing of one's own beliefs over the need to defend them is associated with the scout mindset. The video argues that adopting certain values, such as the importance of truth-seeking, can lead to better judgment and decision-making.

💡Grounding

Grounding, as used in the video, refers to the emotional stability and self-awareness that allows individuals to maintain a sense of self-worth independent of their beliefs about specific topics. Grounded individuals can change their minds without feeling that their identity or value is threatened. This concept is integral to the scout mindset, as it enables individuals to objectively assess information without the emotional investment that can cloud judgment.

💡Self-Worth

Self-worth, in the context of the video, is the internal sense of value and self-esteem that individuals possess. The video contrasts the soldier mindset, where self-worth is tied to being right about specific issues, with the scout mindset, where self-worth is not contingent upon the correctness of one's beliefs. This distinction is crucial because it allows scouts to objectively evaluate information without the fear of losing face or feeling diminished if they are proven wrong.

💡Emotions

Emotions play a significant role in shaping the mindset of individuals, as discussed in the video. While the soldier mindset is rooted in defensive emotions like fear and tribalism, the scout mindset is driven by different emotions, such as curiosity, a desire for truth, and a sense of grounded self-worth. The video argues that cultivating the right emotions is essential for adopting a scout mindset and improving judgment and decision-making.

Highlights

The importance of mindset in decision-making and judgment.

Comparison between the 'soldier mindset' and the 'scout mindset'.

The historical context of the Dreyfus Affair and its relevance to mindsets.

How prejudice and motivated reasoning led to Dreyfus's wrongful conviction.

The role of evidence in shaping beliefs and the concept of 'motivated reasoning'.

The unconscious nature of motivated reasoning and its impact on judgment.

Colonel Picquart's change of heart and the beginning of Dreyfus's exoneration.

The significance of Picquart's actions despite his own prejudices.

The definition and characteristics of the 'scout mindset'.

The emotional drivers behind the scout mindset, such as curiosity and groundedness.

The contrast between the values of soldier and scout mindsets.

The impact of scout mindset on judgment and decision-making.

The non-correlation of scout mindset traits with IQ and the importance of emotions.

The call to change the way we feel to improve judgment and societal outcomes.

The metaphor of Saint-Exupéry's quote about yearning for the sea to improve judgment.

The final question posed about whether one yearns to defend beliefs or see the world clearly.

Transcripts

So I'd like you to imagine for a moment

that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

Your adrenaline is elevated,

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

and to defeat the enemy.

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

that of the scout.

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

The scout's job is to understand.

The scout is the one going out,

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

in a convenient location across a river.

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

as accurately as possible.

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

in our daily lives.

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

To illustrate these mindsets in action,

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

but when they pieced it back together,

they discovered that someone in their ranks

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

So they launched a big investigation,

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

Alfred Dreyfus.

He had a sterling record,

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

and concluded that it was a match,

even though outside professional handwriting experts

were much less confident in the similarity,

but never mind that.

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

looking for any signs of espionage.

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

before they had managed to get to it.

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

for any incriminating details.

They talked to his teachers,

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

later in life.

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

which was highly suspicious, right?

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

and broke his sword in two.

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

writing letters and letters to the French government

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

that Dreyfus was guilty.

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

that they were intentionally framing him.

But historians don't think that's what happened.

As far as we can tell,

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

Which makes you wonder:

What does it say about the human mind

that we can find such paltry evidence

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

our desires and fears,

shape the way we interpret information.

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

and we want to shoot them down.

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

Probably most of you have never persecuted

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

I assume,

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

for example,

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

that examined some controversial policy,

like capital punishment.

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

if you support capital punishment

and the study shows that it's not effective,

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

why the study was poorly designed.

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

it's a good study.

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

by which side we want to win.

And this is ubiquitous.

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

how we decide how to vote,

what we consider fair or ethical.

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

or soldier mindset,

is how unconscious it is.

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

This is Colonel Picquart.

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

that the spying for Germany had continued,

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

But it took him 10 years,

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

actually makes his actions more admirable,

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

as his fellow officers,

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

So to me,

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

but just to see what's really there

as honestly and accurately as you can,

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out

what causes scout mindset.

Why are some people, sometimes at least,

able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

and just try to see the facts and the evidence

as objectively as they can?

And the answer is emotional.

So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

like defensiveness or tribalism,

scout mindset is, too.

It's just rooted in different emotions.

For example, scouts are curious.

They're more likely to say they feel pleasure

when they learn new information

or an itch to solve a puzzle.

They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something

that contradicts their expectations.

Scouts also have different values.

They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous

to test your own beliefs,

and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind

seems weak.

And above all, scouts are grounded,

which means their self-worth as a person

isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic.

So they can believe that capital punishment works.

If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

This cluster of traits is what researchers have found --

and I've also found anecdotally --

predicts good judgment.

And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits

is that they're primarily not about how smart you are

or about how much you know.

In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

They're about how you feel.

There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.

He's the author of "The Little Prince."

He said, "If you want to build a ship,

don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

and distribute the work.

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

In other words, I claim,

if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals

and as societies,

what we need most is not more instruction in logic

or rhetoric or probability or economics,

even though those things are quite valuable.

But what we most need to use those principles well

is scout mindset.

We need to change the way we feel.

We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs.

So the question I want to leave you with is:

What do you most yearn for?

Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?

Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

Thank you.

(Applause)