China WARNS Russia: "GET OUT!"

Summary

This video explores the complex dynamics of Sino-Russian relations, highlighting how their alliance, forged on mutual antipathy towards the West, particularly the US, might be showing signs of strain. Despite a history of conflict and competition, the two nations have found common ground in recent decades, with economic and military cooperation strengthening their bond. However, recent geopolitical events, including disagreements over gas prices, the impact of Western sanctions, and potential espionage, suggest that the friendship may be more fragile than it appears. The video delves into the historical context, current alliances, and the potential for future discord between these two global powers.

Takeaways

• 😀 Russia and China have historically had a complex relationship, with periods of conflict and cooperation.
• 🕊️ The Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed in 2001 solidified their partnership, including a mutual defense clause.
• 🔥 Despite the outward show of unity, recent tensions have emerged, hinting at potential cracks in their alliance.
• 💼 Economic cooperation has been a cornerstone of their relationship, with significant trade increases over the years.
• ⚖️ There are ongoing disputes over gas prices and the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, indicating economic strains.
• 🛡️ China's compliance with not selling arms directly to Russia, yet providing dual-use goods, shows a nuanced approach to supporting Russia.
• 🌐 Both nations share a common stance against Western influence, particularly the US and NATO, which has been a unifying factor.
• 🔄 The Ukraine war has put their alliance to the test, with China reportedly cautious about being seen as supporting aggression.
• 💻 Reports of Chinese hackers spying on Russian state agencies could indicate underlying mistrust between the two countries.
• 🌎 The strategic importance of Central Asia for both Russia and China could become a point of contention in the future.
• 📉 Russia's economic and military struggles, in contrast to China's growing power, may shift the balance and dynamics of their partnership.

Q & A

What historical event in the 1960s caused tension between Russia and China?

The Sino-Soviet border conflict in 1969, also known as the Chenbao Island conflict, caused tension between the two nations, leaving a bitter taste even after it was resolved.

What is the significance of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed between Russia and China in 2001?

The treaty covers a wide range of areas including economics, diplomacy, and geopolitical relations. Notably, Article 9 binds the two nations to support each other in case of war or threat of aggression, and it includes a no-first-use clause for nuclear forces.

How has China's relationship with Russia been influenced by their shared views on the West, particularly the US?

China and Russia's bond is largely built on their similar feelings towards the West, especially the US. They both view the US as a dominant power they wish to counterbalance, which has brought them closer in foreign policy.

What incident in 1999 significantly affected China's view of NATO and the US?

The NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, which resulted in the death of three Chinese journalists and injuries to 20 more, deeply affected China's view of NATO and the US, leading to a strong grudge against them.

How have economic sanctions against Russia impacted its relationship with China?

Economic sanctions have made Russia more reliant on China as a trade partner. However, disagreements over gas prices and China's reluctance to help Russia evade sanctions have caused friction between the two countries.

What is the current status of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and why is it significant for Russia and China?

The construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline has stalled due to disagreements over gas prices. It's significant as it was intended to divert some of Russia's oil exports to China, which is crucial for Russia's economy under Western sanctions.

How do the ideologies of the Chinese and Russian governments contribute to their alliance?

Both governments are autocratic and centralized, with power concentrated in the hands of the leaders. Their similar domestic policies and ideologies have fostered a strong alliance.

What is the role of personal relationships between the leaders of China and Russia in their alliance?

The personal relationship between President Putin and President Xi has played a crucial role in strengthening the alliance, as their mutual respect and understanding have translated into closer ties between their countries.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Historical Alliance and Current Geopolitical Tensions

The paragraph discusses the evolving relationship between Russia and China, historically not always aligned, with past conflicts such as the Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969. It highlights the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness signed in 2001, which solidified their partnership, including military and economic cooperation. The paragraph also touches on the mutual antipathy towards the West, particularly the US and NATO, as a bonding factor. However, it introduces recent cracks in their friendship due to the Ukraine war and the geopolitical implications of their alliance.

05:00

💼 Economic and Military Cooperation Amidst Growing Tensions

This section delves into the economic ties between Russia and China, noting the significant increase in trade over the years, with Russia becoming a key oil supplier to China. It also mentions the military drills conducted jointly and the provision of dual-use goods from China to Russia. Despite these cooperative efforts, tensions arise from disputes over gas prices and China's reluctance to fully support Russia in circumventing Western sanctions. The paragraph suggests that while the alliance is currently strong, there are underlying economic and strategic frictions that could affect their relationship.

10:01

🛡️ Sanctions, Cyber Espionage, and Territorial Disputes

The paragraph explores the impact of Western sanctions on the relationship between China and Russia, with China's banks becoming stricter in their dealings with Russia to avoid penalties. It also raises allegations of Chinese cyber espionage targeting Russian state agencies, which could potentially erode trust between the two nations. Additionally, it discusses unresolved territorial disputes and the strategic importance of certain regions, hinting at future conflicts that might arise from these tensions.

15:03

🌐 Shifting Power Dynamics and Future Prospects

The final paragraph examines the changing power dynamics between China and Russia, with China's economy and military outpacing Russia's significantly. It suggests that as China's global influence grows, its need for Russia's alliance may diminish. The paragraph also considers Russia's military struggles and the economic impact of sanctions, indicating potential vulnerabilities. It concludes by acknowledging the current alignment of interests but also the possibility of future divergence as interests and global politics evolve.

Keywords

💡Geopolitics

Geopolitics refers to the study of how political dynamics are influenced by geographical factors, including relations between countries, the distribution of power, and the impact of global events on political entities. In the video, geopolitics is central to understanding the complex relationship between Russia and China, particularly in the context of their alliances and tensions, such as their shared opposition to Western influence and their individual interests in global dominance.

💡Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation

This treaty is a formal agreement signed between Russia and China in 2001, aimed at fostering mutual cooperation and peace. It covers various aspects including economics, diplomacy, and geopolitical relations. The video highlights Article 9 of the treaty, which stipulates mutual support in case of threats to peace or security, illustrating the depth of their alliance and the commitment to non-aggression and intelligence sharing.

💡NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance between North American and European countries. In the context of the video, NATO is portrayed as a rival to both Russia and China, with China's animosity towards NATO stemming from the 1999 bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. This event is used to exemplify the shared anti-Western sentiment that underpins the Sino-Russian alliance.

💡Sanctions

Sanctions are economic or political measures imposed on a country to coerce certain actions or behaviors. The video discusses how Western sanctions against Russia, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine, have strained the relationship between Russia and China. China's reluctance to fully assist Russia in circumventing these sanctions is highlighted as a point of tension between the two nations.

💡Economic Cooperation

Economic cooperation refers to the collaboration between countries for mutual economic benefit. The video emphasizes the growing economic ties between Russia and China, with Russia becoming China's largest oil supplier and China becoming Russia's largest trading partner. This economic interdependence is seen as a key factor in maintaining their alliance, despite emerging tensions.

💡Autocratic Governments

Autocratic governments are characterized by a single ruler or a small group of individuals holding centralized power. The video notes the similarity in the political systems of China and Russia, both being autocratic with centralized power, which contributes to their alignment on various domestic and foreign policy issues. This shared political ideology is presented as a bond that strengthens their partnership.

💡Dual-Use Goods

Dual-use goods are items that have both civilian and military applications. The video mentions that while China has complied with not directly selling arms to Russia, it has been providing dual-use goods, which could potentially be used to support Russia's military efforts. This practice is seen as a way for China to maintain its economic ties with Russia while avoiding direct confrontation with Western sanctions.

💡Cyber Espionage

Cyber espionage involves the use of digital means to spy and gather intelligence. The video raises concerns about Chinese hackers allegedly spying on Russian state agencies, which could indicate a lack of trust between the two nations despite their public alliance. This potential cyber espionage is presented as a sign of the underlying tensions and the fragility of their relationship.

💡Territorial Disputes

Territorial disputes are disagreements over the control of land or resources. The video discusses the potential for renewed territorial disputes between China and Russia, particularly regarding the island of Bolshoy Ussuriysky (known as Heixi Island in Chinese). This issue is highlighted as a potential source of conflict that could strain their relationship, despite their current alliance.

💡Central Asia

Central Asia refers to the region comprising the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The video notes the differing interests of Russia and China in Central Asia, with Russia focusing on political influence and China on economic development. The potential for competition in this region is presented as another factor that could impact the Sino-Russian alliance.

Highlights

Recent developments suggest a potential rift between Russia and China, despite their long-standing alliance.

Historically, Russia and China had conflicts over influence and border disputes, including a brief border conflict in 1969.

Post-Soviet Union, Russia sought to mend relations with China, leading to a treaty in 2001 focusing on cooperation and non-aggression.

The Treaty of Good Neighborliness includes a mutual defense clause and a no-first-use nuclear policy.

The alliance between Russia and China is underpinned by shared antipathy towards the West, particularly the US.

China's historical resentment towards NATO, especially after the 1999 bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, aligns with Russia's interests.

Economic cooperation has been a cornerstone of the Sino-Russian relationship, with significant growth in trade over the past two decades.

Despite Western sanctions, China continued to engage economically with Russia, becoming each other's largest trading partners.

Both nations share autocratic ideologies and centralization of power, which contributes to their political alignment.

Personal rapport between Chinese leaders and Russian counterparts has reinforced the alliance.

Transcripts

Russia and China have been in each

other's good graces in recent years so

it might be hard to believe they could

be falling out when the Ukraine war

started everyone assumed that Russia and

China would be United forever because of

their hatred for the west but recently

cracks have started to emerge in this

friendship as the famous saying goes in

the game of geopolitics there are no

permanent friends and no permanent

enemies only permanent interests today

we're going going to dive deep into

cenor Russian relations very closely to

shine a light on the cracks in the

outward expression of friendship have

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media if you think this information

valuable and now let's get started

before we get into the builtup tension

between these two giants let's go back

to how relations between the two started

Russia and China were not always

political buddies and in the 60s they

did not see eye to eye both countries

competed for control over foreign

Communist States and political movements

and many countries had two rival

communist parties that concentrated

their fire on each other to further fuel

dissension in 1969 there was a brief

border conflict known as the senos

Soviet border conflict it lasted 7

months and though it was later resolved

it left a bitter taste in the mouths of

both Nations after the fall of the

Soviet Union Russia was humbled and

began to play nice with everybody else

under its conciliatory policy they

finally put the Border dispute to rest

and began to pursue a partnership in the

1990s in 2001 they signed the Treaty of

good neighborliness in friendly

cooperation in Moscow with President

Putin and xang Zan the 20-year treaty

covered everything from economics

diplomacy and geopolitical relations

interestingly article 9 of that Clause

basically binds the two Nations to help

each other out in the case of War it

states when a situation arises in which

one of the Contracting parties deems

that peace is being threatened and

undermined or its security interests are

involved or when it's confronted with

the threat of aggression the Contracting

party shall immediately hold contacts

and consultations in order to eliminate

such threats the treaty also talks about

intelligent sharing and includes a no

first use Clause that ensures that both

parties will not use nuclear force

against each other as a first response

this treaty was renewed in 2021 and it

seems that the intention is for the two

parties to continue to work together

currently it seems their allegiance is

stronger than ever and it's alleged that

as a favor to China Russia waited until

after the Beijing Olympics ended

February 20th to invade Ukraine 4 days

later Western intelligence Reports say

that senior Chinese officials knew about

the invasion prior and called in the

favor we've chronicled their journey to

partnership but now we need to look at

why the cenor Russian Alliance has

lasted for two decades understanding

their ties will help us determine how

strong or weak they are and that will

show us the fault lines behind their

falling out now as the saying goes the

enemy of your enemy is your friend China

and Russia's bond is built on their

similar feelings towards the West

specifically the us and this is shown in

their foreign policy talking about

issues between Russia and the US would

require us to pause this video and do a

completely different one after all

Russia's been constantly in competition

with America for dominance economically

militarily and in terms of global

influence due to their well-established

rivalry most Nations either align with

one or the other

and the lines are drawn pretty clearly

China's always been anti- Nat so that

automatically puts it on the Russian

side this is because China believes that

America is a bully and NATO is the lap

dog that does all its dirty work on that

note China holds a very strong grudge

against NATO because of something that

happened in 1999 early hours of Friday

May the 7th 1999 NATO planes bomb the

center of Belgrade and almost risk

bringing China into the conflict on the

side of the C BS two rockets hit the

Chinese Embassy damage to any foreign

Embassy would have been embarrassing

enough hitting the Chinese building

brought a diplomatic nightmare three

Chinese journalists were killed by the

Rockets 20 more Embassy staff were

injured some of them seriously NATO was

working to fight against Serbian

aggression towards albanians and dropped

a B2 bomber on the Chinese Embassy on

may7 dropping the bomb on the embassy

was a mistake but three Chinese

Nationals were killed and 20 were

injured China does not believe that this

was a simple miscalculation and has

always suspected Foul Play since then

the US has always been Public Enemy

Number One and China's foreign policy is

very anti-American so both Russia and

China want to take America down and

they're willing to work together to

weaken American power and influence that

factor brings them together on the

military front Russia and China's patent

for aggression makes them the best of

friends outside of their intelligence

sharing they carry out joint military

drills in the seas around Taiwan working

to strengthen their military ties

furthermore while China's complied with

the request not to sell arms to Russia

China does provide them with dual Goods

these are Goods that could be used for

civilian or military purposes and it's

obvious that China uses this loophole to

sell military equipment to Russia

building on this over the years China

and Russia have also worked hard to

build economic cooperation

in 2007 Russia exported about5 billion

worth of goods and oil to Russia and in

2019 that number jumped to about 5.7

billion even when most of the West hit

Russia with sanctions in 2014 China was

still one of the few countries that

continued to work with Russia

economically currently Russia has

overtaken Saudi Arabia as China's

largest oil supplier and China's

overtaken Germany as Russia's largest

trading partner their existing

relationship as trade Partners means

that their partnership is quite solid

where there's money to be made there are

friendships to be built as well what

strengthens their bond even more is the

similarities that exist between both

their ideologies both governments are

autocratic in nature and the power is

centralized in the hands of the leader

China is a onep party State and Putin

runs a multi-party state that cracks

down heavily on any opposition looking

at their almost identical domestic

policies it's not difficult to see why

they would work well together the cherry

on the top for the two parties is that

the two leaders actually like each other

that may not seem to matter but it

definitely sweetens interaction XI

described Putin as his best friend and

shared an intimate meal with him in 2018

where they shared Russian pancakes and

took vodka shots for X's 66th birthday

in 2019 puon presented him with a cake

and a giant box of ice cream which was

an incredibly sweet gesture most

presidents do not bother meeting up

unless they have to but it's reported

that the two have met up over 40 times

unofficially they actually had a

long-standing tradition of meeting up

for each other's birthday that was only

broken by Co and then the Ukraine war

with such good relations between the two

of them what would cause the tension

well let's dive into it then as you guys

know today's geopolitical world moves

very fast and it's pretty much

impossible to keep up with all the news

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comments or Link in my bio getting back

to China and Russia it can be hard to

see it but we need to remember that not

all that Glitters Is Gold to begin with

there are ongoing disputes about gas

prices between the two Nations when most

of Europe turned its back on Russia due

to its aggressions China was one of its

few economic allies the intention was

for Russia to begin to push some of its

oil through a new pipeline known as the

power of Siberia 2 Russia used to export

about 200 billion cubic m in its heyes

and hoped to be able to divert some of

its exports to China unfortunately a

disagreement about the gas prices has

led to a stall in the construction of

the pipeline the the two Nations have

not been able to come to an agreement

because China's price point is

considerably lower than Russia expected

due to the sanctions Russia has lost so

much money and is really trying to make

up for it here on the other hand China

knows Russia's desperate and is using

that to drive a hard bargain for now

Russia seems to be staying diplomatic

because it needs to but it's hard to

imagine that it'll forget this squeeze

by their Ally if Russia could survive

economically without trade in China

we're sure there would be no need for

their friendship but currently it is a

convenience that keeps these two Nations

joined at the hips on top of all this

dabbling with Russia is beginning to

cause some problems for China to try and

stifle Russia's efforts in Ukraine the

Biden Administration has shifted to

imposing sanctions on China for aiding

Russia to further squeeze China the US

has added 42 Chinese companies to its

sanction list and Biden threatens

secondary sanctions if they continue to

support the aggressor in response to the

push back Chinese banks have become

strictor and are now refusing to help

Russia evade sanctions Chinese banks are

refusing to process Russian payments and

this is causing friction between the two

Nations though you'd expect Russia to

understand the tricky position it's

placed China in it seems that the

kremlin's disappointed and feels that

its Ally should help it out between

China's irritation and Russia

entitlements this sanction issue has the

potential to push the countries further

apart as they rush to protect their own

interests now although Putin has stated

that China's in full support of its

actions in Ukraine other reports show

that China may not be in favor of

Putin's aggressive policy China's

fearing a looming World War III on the

side of the aggressor which could cause

big problems for Beijing an anonymous

source in the Kremlin states that the

current Russian leadership has a brewing

conflict with the leadership of China

this week through the Ministry of

Foreign Affairs the Russian side once

again expressed concern about the

reluctance of the Chinese leadership to

universally assist in circumventing

Western sanctions imposed on Russia

while they have seen eye to ey on most

issues it seems that China's patience

for Russia is running out Russia's

destructive and intimidating foreign

policy is gaining many enemies and China

may cut ties soon if it doesn't want to

go down with the Kremlin to further sour

the relationship there are reports that

China's been using hackers to spy on the

Russian State Chinese hackers have

targeted dozens of computers belonging

to Russian state agencies and tech

companies and reports are coming out

that militia tools have been implanted

the Russian cyber security firm

kasperski picked up on an unknown plug y

back door and an updated version of

cloud sorcerer malware which was

previously used to spy on Russian

organizations the spyware has previously

been identified and and link to the

Beijing linked hacking group

a31 although there's nothing concrete to

prove these allegations the possibility

that it could be true is enough to so

distrust it would have been idealistic

of any of the parties to completely

trust the other sure but such reports

only work to seow suspicion and push a

wedge between the two countries by the

way do you remember the Ceno Soviet

border dispute although it seemed to

have been resolved it looks like there's

still some unfinished business on a map

published in 2023 by Beijing the island

of bullo uisi island is marked entirely

as Chinese territory this is in

violation of their agreement which

splits the island between the two

countries with China controlling the

eastern half and Russia controlling the

Western half an honest mistake probably

not China may have played along for this

long but it has plans to take back what

it believes belongs to it the island

known as haasi Island in Chinese may

seem unimpressive but its strategic

geographical position is important for

China it sits right at the junction of

the Amur and asuri rivers which means

it's close to karov Outer Manchuria

China's uncomfortable with territory so

close to one of its largest cities being

partially controlled by Russia also

Russia controls the portion of the

island where the rivers converge and

this means that it has access to

shipping routes which is strategically a

bonus with all these Factor considered

it's not hard to see why China would be

considering overthrowing the current

agreement and taking back the

territories that have been allocated

between China and Russia outside their

disputes for territories along their

border Russia and China's interests in

Central Asia are a cause for concern

there's currently no friction as they've

not come head-to-head but the

competition between the two is

underlying Russia tends to interfere in

the politics of Kazakhstan kistan

Tajikistan Turkmenistan and usbekistan

which have sizable ethnic Russian

communities and speak the Russian

language in 2022 the Russian military

helped the government of Kazakhstan

suppress anti-government riots in

kazakhstan's capital Asana China's role

in the region has been more subtle and

its focus has been on developing

infrastructure in Kazakhstan to allow

for two-way trade China's focused on the

region economically and Russia's looking

at it for political gain while there's

been no fighting two superpowers with

interests in one region never ends well

we also need to ask ourselves if China

is going to need Russia's Ally ship in

the foreseeable future China is shaping

up as a global economic force and if it

continues on this trajectory there may

be very little need for it to continue

to play nice with Russia China's exports

have grown substantially with $ 89.4

billion worth of goods being pushed to

Central Asia in

2023 Russia's current military projects

and the hi of the economic sanctions

have drained it considerably and this

means that it's lagging behind if we

look at it China's economy is currently

six times the size of Russia China

surpassed Russia in nominal per capita

GDP in 2020 and the international

monetary fund or IMF predicts that

China's GDP will reach nearly $30

trillion by 2027 while Russia's GDP is

predicted to be well under 2 trillion

furthermore according to the cipri

report China's military expenditure as

of this year sits at $296 billion

whereas Russia's despite the war sits at

less than half of that at 109 billion

the glaring difference between the two

means that Russia and China are no

longer equal Partners economically

Russia's holding on to China for support

and this means Russia needs China more

than it needs Russia now I'm not trying

to make it seem like China's

indestructible and would be completely

self-sufficient if it burned its bridges

with Russia trade is a vital part of

both Count's economies so they'll not be

letting go of each other anytime soon

what we are highlighting is that the

strings that bind them together are

flimsy and could easily be snipped off

if China grows strong enough and wishes

to advance its interests around the area

of its border with Russia it would

likely do away with the understanding it

currently has we also need to consider

that China's military is modernizing and

as it grows economically it's now in a

position to better fund its expansion

projects what's more Russia's struggles

in Ukraine have hinted to us that China

is not Immortal The Limited capability

of its armed forces and the holes in

some of its strategies show us a nation

that is more aggressive than it is

precise if China were to mount an attack

against Russia it could really be

anyone's game the cracks outlined are

still small and maybe the relations

between the two will remain intact for

some decades to come

on the other hand there is the

possibility that the cracks will deepen

and sever the ties between the two

Nations currently C Russian interests

align and therefore they'll continue to

coexist however over time as interests

change and the playing field changes

these two Powers could be on opposite

ends