What the North Korea-Russia Alliance Reveals

Summary

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense pact, potentially impacting global politics. The deal could lead to North Korea providing military support and labor to Russia, including possibly deploying troops to Ukraine. This alliance might influence Russia's UN Security Council voting, facilitate military equipment transfers, and circumvent Western sanctions. Reports suggest North Korea has already sent munitions to Russia, and the strengthened ties could escalate the conflict in Ukraine, while also affecting Russia's relations with China.

Takeaways

• 📜 On June 19th, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed an agreement with significant global implications, indicating a comprehensive strategic partnership and a mutual defense pact.
• 🔄 This agreement is considered stronger than a typical strategic partnership due to the inclusion of a mutual defense pact, which implies a commitment to provide immediate military assistance to each other in case of foreign invasion.
• 🏛 The agreement could potentially influence Russia's voting behavior at the United Nations, where as a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has veto power over resolutions.
• 🚀 The partnership may facilitate the transfer of military equipment from China to North Korea, which could then indirectly supply Russian forces, circumventing Western sanctions.
• 💣 North Korea has reportedly been sending Russia millions of artillery shells and thousands of missiles since 2023, which could be part of a quid-pro-quo arrangement.
• 🛑 There are unconfirmed reports suggesting North Korea might send troops to assist in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, which, if true, would represent a significant escalation in the conflict.
• 🔮 The possibility of North Korean troop deployment is being taken seriously, with the Pentagon not outright dismissing the claims, though the source of the information is a South Korean news network citing an unnamed official.
• 🛠 If North Korean troops are sent, they may serve in roles such as construction, logistics, and fortification building, potentially freeing up Russian combat forces for the front lines.
• 💼 The alliance could lead to North Korea earning significant income from Russia for labor provided in reconstruction efforts, estimated at around $15 million per year for three engineering brigades.
• 🔄 Historical precedent exists for North Korea sending military abroad, such as advisors and pilots during the Vietnam War, indicating a potential willingness to participate in foreign conflicts.
• 🌐 The strengthened relationship between Russia and North Korea could impact global dynamics, including South Korea's consideration of arming Ukraine and the potential for a new Cold War scenario.

Q & A

What type of agreement did Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un sign on June 19th?

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense pact.

What is the significance of a mutual defense pact in the context of international relations?

A mutual defense pact signifies a very strong commitment between two countries to provide military assistance to each other in the event of an attack, indicating a deep alliance akin to 'till death do us part'.

What are the implications of Russia and North Korea's agreement for the United Nations?

Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, may adjust its voting behavior, potentially using its veto power to block resolutions that it disagrees with, especially those related to North Korea sanctions.

How might the agreement affect the flow of military equipment to North Korea?

The agreement could facilitate the transfer of military equipment from China to North Korea, which could then indirectly supply it to Russian forces, potentially circumventing Western sanctions.

What benefits might North Korea receive from this agreement according to the script?

North Korea is expected to receive increased shipments of food, fuel, and oil, as well as the unfreezing of $9 million in North Korean assets.

What is the historical precedent for North Korea sending military abroad?

In 1967, North Korea sent pilots to advise, train, and fly missions to aid in the Vietnam War. More recently, North Korean military advisers trained Angolan armed forces.

What is the potential role of North Korean troops in Ukraine according to the script?

North Korean troops might be sent to Ukraine as engineering units to perform tasks such as building fortifications, mine clearing, logistics support, or as laborers for rebuilding efforts in occupied regions.

How might the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine impact the conflict?

The deployment could free up more Russian combat power for front-line fighting, as North Korean forces take over tasks like fortification building and reconstruction.

What is the historical context of the relationship between Russia and North Korea?

The Soviet Union covertly backed North Korea during the Korean War in the 1950s, and after the war, they signed a strong defense alliance pact, which was later weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

How does the script suggest the current alliance might affect South Korea's stance on arming Ukraine?

The script suggests that South Korea might become more open to arming Ukraine due to the strengthened alliance between Russia and North Korea, potentially providing weapons that could escalate the conflict.

What does the script imply about the broader geopolitical implications of the Russia-North Korea alliance?

The script implies that the alliance could lead to a reshuffling of alliances, reigniting old rivalries and alliances, creating an unpredictable geopolitical landscape with high stakes.