Steve Kornacki: How Harris and Trump are polling in states that could decide the election

Summary

With two days until the debate, the electoral race remains tight in seven battleground states, each pivotal for the electoral college's 270 votes. Wisconsin stands out with a larger margin, while the Sunbelt states reflect shifts since Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, improving her party's standing with non-white voters. However, in states with a high percentage of white voters without college degrees, like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, polls historically undercounted Trump's support, raising questions about potential inaccuracies. Harris leads on issues like abortion, while the economy, immigration, and international conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war also sway public opinion.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ The script discusses the tight race in seven core battleground states that are crucial for the electoral college and reaching 270 votes.
• 📊 Wisconsin stands out with a larger margin compared to other states, suggesting a potential focus area for the campaigns.
• 🔍 The Sunbelt states reflect a shift in the race dynamics since Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, replacing Joe Biden.
• 🌈 The diversity of the electorate in the battleground states is highlighted, with a focus on the varying proportions of white and non-white voters.
• 📉 Kamala Harris has improved upon Joe Biden's standing with Hispanic and Black voters, though not at the historical levels for Democrats.
• 🏛️ The script points out that states with a higher share of white voters, particularly blue-collar ones without college degrees, could be pivotal.
• ⚖️ Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are noted for their significant non-college white voter population, a group that was underestimated in past polls.
• ❓ There's a question raised about whether current polls in states like Wisconsin are undercounting Trump's support among blue-collar white voters.
• 📈 The script mentions a Wall Street Journal poll where Harris has a significant lead on the issue of abortion and has made it a key campaign point.
• 🌐 Other issues influencing public view include the economy, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Q & A

What is the significance of the upcoming debate mentioned in the transcript?

The debate is significant as it is two days away and is likely to influence the razor-thin contests in the seven core battleground states, which are crucial for deciding the Electoral College and the road to 270 electoral votes.

Which state is highlighted as having a larger margin in the polls compared to the others?

Wisconsin is highlighted as having a larger margin in the polls compared to the other battleground states.

How has Kamala Harris' candidacy affected the Democratic race in the Sunbelt states?

Kamala Harris' candidacy has changed the race in the Sunbelt states, as she has improved upon Joe Biden's standing with Hispanic and Black voters, making these states look more promising for her than they were for Joe Biden.

What demographic differences are noted between the seven core battleground states and the national electorate?

The three states of Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia have a lower share of White voters and a higher share of non-White voters compared to the national average.

What is the historical challenge for Democrats in terms of non-White voters?

Historically, Democrats have typically run at higher levels with non-White voters than what is currently seen with Kamala Harris' campaign.

What is the concern regarding the polls in states with high shares of White voters without four-year degrees?

There is a concern that polls in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which have high shares of White voters without four-year degrees, may undercount Trump's support among blue-collar White voters, as has happened in previous elections.

What is the current public view on Kamala Harris' stance on abortion according to the Wall Street Journal poll mentioned?

According to the Wall Street Journal poll, Kamala Harris has a 20-point advantage on the issue of abortion.

What are the other key issues that have been highlighted in the poll where Kamala Harris has an advantage?

In addition to abortion, Kamala Harris also has an advantage on issues such as the economy, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas war.

What is the implication of the razor-thin contests in the seven core battleground states?

The razor-thin contests imply that even small shifts in voter preferences could significantly impact the outcome of the Electoral College and the presidential election.

What does the diversity of the electorates in the battleground states suggest about the Democratic strategy?

The diversity of the electorates in the battleground states suggests that the Democratic strategy must address the concerns and interests of both White and non-White voters, particularly in states with significant non-White populations.

How does the transcript suggest the campaign is approaching the challenge of improving support among non-White voters?

The transcript indicates that the campaign is actively looking at ways to boost and improve support among non-White voters, recognizing that while there has been improvement since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden, they are not yet at the levels Democrats typically achieve.