Suku Bunga Dipangkas, Investasi Apa Yang Bikin Kaya?

CNBC Indonesia

31 Jul 202410:34

Summary

TLDRThe Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates in September, following a year of high rates to combat inflation. With US inflation easing to 3% in June 2024, down from a target of 2%, Jerome Powell suggests prolonged high rates could harm the economy. Bank Indonesia may follow suit, impacting investments. As rates drop, investors are advised to consider various investment options like government bonds, fixed-income funds, and stocks, especially those less burdened by financial debt, to maximize returns amidst global economic fluctuations.

Takeaways

📉 The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September 2024 after maintaining them at 5.25%-5.5% for nearly a year.
📊 Inflation in the U.S. has decreased to 3% in June 2024, but the target remains at 2%, which is a factor influencing the rate cut.
🏦 Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, noted that holding high interest rates for too long can negatively impact the U.S. economy.
📉 Bank Indonesia is likely to follow the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut with its own rate cut, expected in November.
💰 Several investment options are mentioned for capitalizing on the rate cut, including government bonds, fixed-income funds, and stocks.
📈 As interest rates decrease, some investors may shift away from savings deposits and into government bonds (SBN) due to higher potential returns.
🔄 Diversification is recommended as the best investment strategy, balancing investments across multiple assets such as bonds, stocks, and gold.
📉 The Indonesian central bank rate was 6.25% by June 2024, kept high to stabilize the currency, manage inflation, and ensure foreign capital inflow.
📉 When interest rates decrease, sectors such as property, automotive, and telecommunications stocks could become more attractive.
📈 Gold is highlighted as a potential investment due to its correlation with currency movements and its status as a 'safe haven' during global instability.

Q & A

What is the expected action of the Federal Reserve in September regarding interest rates?
-The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, which has been anticipated for some time due to the high interest rates maintained by the Fed for nearly a year at 5.25% to 5.5%.
Why is the Federal Reserve considering lowering interest rates?
-The Federal Reserve is considering lowering interest rates because inflation in the United States has started to ease, reaching 3% in June 2024, down from a previous target of 2%.
What does Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, think about maintaining high interest rates for a long period?
-Jerome Powell has stated that maintaining high interest rates for a long period is not beneficial for the U.S. economy.
How does the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision typically affect Bank Indonesia's monetary policy?
-Typically, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, Bank Indonesia follows suit by adjusting its own interest rates. This is expected to happen in September, potentially leading to a decrease in the reference interest rate.
What was the last increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate, and by how much?
-The last increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate was in July 2023, with an increase of 25 basis points, setting the rate between 5.25% and 5.5%.
What is the current inflation rate in the United States, and what is the government's target?
-As of June 2024, the inflation rate in the United States is at 3.3%, whereas the government's target is to have it at 2%.
What monetary policy did Bank Indonesia implement in response to the Federal Reserve's actions?
-In response to the Federal Reserve's actions, Bank Indonesia increased its reference interest rate to 5.75% in July 2023 and maintained a high interest rate of 6.25% as of June 2024 to ensure inflation remains controlled and to stabilize the rupiah's value.
What are the potential impacts of Bank Indonesia's high interest rate policy on the public?
-The high interest rate policy can lead to increased prices, higher loan interest rates, reduced purchasing power, and a potential decrease in the job market.
What types of investments are suggested for a period of central bank interest rate decrease?
-Investments such as government bonds (including retail and fixed-rate), Shariah-compliant retail government bonds, fixed-income mutual funds based on SBN, and stocks in sectors like property, automotive, multifinance, and telecommunications are suggested.
What are the opinions of financial experts on the potential impact of interest rate cuts on investments?
-Financial experts suggest that interest rate cuts can affect various investment instruments, such as bonds and stocks, and that investors should diversify their portfolios to benefit from different market responses to interest rate changes.
Why is it important for investors to diversify their investments during times of interest rate fluctuations?
-Diversification helps to minimize the risk of significant losses and allows investors to take advantage of opportunities across different investment instruments that may be affected differently by interest rate changes.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Expected Interest Rate Cut by The Fed in September 2024

The paragraph discusses the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by The Federal Reserve (The Fed) in September 2024. The rate has remained high between 5.25% and 5.5% for almost a year, driven by the need to control inflation. With inflation in the U.S. cooling down to 3% by June 2024, lower than the target of 2%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the adverse effects of prolonged high rates on the U.S. economy. The passage also notes that such rate cuts typically influence Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, potentially leading to similar actions. The focus then shifts to what types of investments should be prioritized during this period of decreasing interest rates.

05:01

💰 Public Investment Preferences Amid Rate Cuts

This paragraph highlights different investment strategies that people are adopting ahead of the expected interest rate cut. It includes interviews with individuals investing in various financial instruments such as mutual funds, gold, and fixed deposits. One interviewee emphasizes the long-term benefits of gold, while another highlights the ease of investing in mutual funds through popular platforms. Both stress that diversification is key, with each person sharing their reasons for choosing specific investment products.

10:03

📈 Financial Products to Consider During Central Bank Rate Cuts

The paragraph outlines three main investment products that investors should consider during a potential central bank interest rate cut: retail government bonds (ORI), fixed-rate government bonds (FR), and Sharia-compliant bonds (sukuk). It also mentions fixed-income mutual funds and stocks from sectors like property, automotive, finance, and telecommunications as promising options. The section concludes by shifting focus to expert opinions on the topic.

📊 Expert Analysis on Rate Cuts and Investment Strategies

An expert, Mas Akbar, is interviewed about the potential effects of the interest rate cut. He explains that as interest rates decrease, government bonds and other debt instruments, including those from Indonesia, become more attractive as investors move away from lower-yielding savings accounts. Stocks, especially in companies with dollar-denominated debt, could benefit due to reduced financial burdens. Gold is also mentioned as a safe-haven asset, which generally appreciates when interest rates drop. The expert advises on the importance of diversifying investments across multiple asset classes to maximize returns and minimize risk.

🛡️ Importance of Diversification in Investment

The paragraph wraps up the expert advice by reiterating the importance of diversifying investments across different products like government bonds, stocks, and fixed deposits. This diversification helps investors mitigate risks associated with interest rate cuts while maximizing potential returns. The discussion ends with a reminder that investors should remain aware of market changes and adjust their portfolios accordingly.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Federal Reserve (The Fed)

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as 'The Fed,' is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a crucial role in setting the monetary policy, including interest rates, which influence the economy by controlling the money supply and inflation. In the script, The Fed is mentioned in the context of potentially lowering interest rates, which is a significant decision that affects global financial markets. The script discusses how a rate cut by The Fed could lead to similar actions by other central banks, including Bank Indonesia.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the percentage rates charged on loans or earned on deposits by financial institutions. They are a key tool used by central banks to manage economic activity. Lower interest rates can stimulate borrowing and spending, while higher rates can slow down the economy. The script discusses the anticipation of The Fed lowering interest rates, which is expected to have a ripple effect on other economies and financial markets, including Indonesia's.

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. Central banks like The Fed aim to keep inflation under control to maintain economic stability. The script mentions that inflation in the United States has started to decrease, which is a factor that might influence The Fed's decision to lower interest rates.

💡Bank Indonesia

Bank Indonesia is the central bank of Indonesia, responsible for monetary policy, ensuring financial stability, and maintaining the value of the Indonesian Rupiah. The script indicates that Bank Indonesia has been following The Fed's lead by adjusting its own interest rates. The potential for The Fed to lower rates could influence Bank Indonesia's monetary policy decisions.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy refers to the actions of a central bank, such as adjusting interest rates, to control the availability and cost of money and credit to influence a country's economic performance. The script discusses how both The Fed and Bank Indonesia have used monetary policy tools, such as raising interest rates, to manage inflation and stabilize their currencies.

💡Deposito

Deposito, or time deposits, are financial products offered by banks where customers deposit money for a fixed term at a guaranteed interest rate. The script mentions deposito in the context of investment options that could be affected by changes in central bank interest rates. Lower central bank rates could lead to lower returns on deposito, prompting investors to consider other investment vehicles.

💡Reksa Dana

Reksa Dana, or mutual funds, are investment vehicles that pool money from multiple investors to invest in a diversified portfolio of assets like stocks, bonds, or other securities. The script discusses how some people prefer to invest in mutual funds due to their potential for steady returns, even in a fluctuating interest rate environment.

💡Emas (Gold)

Gold is a precious metal that is often seen as a safe-haven investment during times of economic uncertainty. The script mentions gold as an investment option that some people choose due to its potential to appreciate in value, especially when other investment returns may be uncertain or decreasing due to interest rate changes.

💡Investment Diversification

Investment diversification is a strategy that involves spreading investments across various financial instruments, industries, and other categories to optimize returns and minimize risk. The script emphasizes the importance of diversification, suggesting that investors should not rely on a single investment instrument but should consider a mix of deposito, mutual funds, stocks, and other assets to maximize their financial stability and growth.

💡Suku Bunga

Suku Bunga, or interest rates, are a critical component of banking and finance, affecting the cost of borrowing and the return on savings and investments. The script discusses the potential for central banks to lower interest rates, which could impact various financial products, including loans, deposits, and investment returns. Understanding changes in suku bunga is essential for making informed investment decisions.

💡Global Financial Stability

Global financial stability refers to the condition of the international financial system being free from significant risks that could lead to a systemic crisis. The script touches on the interconnectedness of financial markets, indicating that decisions made by central banks like The Fed can have far-reaching effects on other economies, including Indonesia's. Maintaining stability is a key goal of monetary policy, and the script suggests that investors should be aware of global factors that could influence their investments.

Highlights

The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut in September, after maintaining high rates of 5.25%-5.5% for almost a year.

Inflation in the U.S. has started to ease, reaching 3% in June 2024, though the initial target was 2%.

Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, stated that maintaining high interest rates for too long may negatively impact the U.S. economy.

Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are typically followed by similar movements by Bank Indonesia.

Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia, currently maintains a high interest rate of 6.25% to stabilize inflation, the Rupiah exchange rate, and attract foreign capital.

Rising interest rates in Indonesia have led to higher prices, loan interest rates, and reduced purchasing power and employment.

With potential rate cuts on the horizon, investors are considering safe options like mutual funds, bonds, and gold.

Many people are turning to mutual funds and gold for their relatively safe returns amid financial instability.

Gold is seen as a safe haven due to its perceived long-term price appreciation and the ability to resist impulsive spending.

Expert analysts suggest that fixed-income securities like government bonds and certain stocks in sectors like property, automotive, and telecommunications will benefit from interest rate cuts.

Systemic risks arise during interest rate cuts, affecting assets sensitive to rate changes, including bonds and stocks.

When interest rates fall, deposits become less attractive, leading investors to shift funds into government bonds.

Rate cuts can benefit companies with dollar-denominated debt, as a strengthening Rupiah would reduce their financial burdens.

Investors should diversify across multiple investment instruments, such as government bonds, deposits, and stocks, to mitigate risks.

Amid global instability, safe-haven assets like gold remain attractive to investors, especially during financial uncertainty in regions like the Middle East.