Futurism and the "Bahala Na" Culture | Guillermo Santos | TEDxLyceumPhilippinesUniversity
Summary
TLDRThe speaker, at 86 years old, optimistically addresses the future, highlighting the importance of futurism in planning and decision-making. He discusses the corporate world's use of futurism for productivity and social responsibility, and its application in medicine and education. The speaker emphasizes the significance of understanding national history, current events, and global trends to predict and shape the future. He shares personal experiences from wars and intelligence gathering, illustrating the impact of futurism on historical outcomes. The talk concludes with the qualities needed to be an effective futurist, including maturity, analytical skills, and effective communication.
Takeaways
- ๐ The speaker, at 86 years old, humorously claims to be the oldest in the room and uses this as a segue to discuss the future.
- ๐ The speaker is optimistic, suggesting that even those with Alzheimer's have an advantage in making new friends due to their condition.
- ๐ The speaker predicts a significant increase in Alzheimer's cases due to an aging global population, projected to reach 10 billion by 2050.
- ๐ข Corporate leaders use futurism to strategize for increased productivity, profitability, and shareholder benefits, also considering corporate social responsibility.
- ๐ค There's a critique of the current state of pharmaceuticals and doctors, suggesting a decline in bedside manners and an increase in patient demands.
- ๐ฅ The speaker discusses the role of futurism in medicine, education, and strategic planning, emphasizing its importance in various sectors.
- ๐ The speaker highlights the geopolitical competition in the Asia-Pacific region, driven by economic progress and strategic intelligence gathering.
- ๐ ๏ธ Futurism is compared to master planning in architecture and engineering, where a blueprint is followed with strict timelines.
- ๐ฎ The speaker distinguishes between serious futurism and the more frivolous fortune-telling, emphasizing the importance of evidence-based prediction.
- ๐ The speaker outlines the qualities of a futurist, including being an optimist, having a mature and analytical mind, and being an effective communicator with a well-rounded background.
Q & A
What is the speaker's age and what is his perspective on the future?
-The speaker is 86 years old and he is an optimist when it comes to discussing the future. He humorously points out that those with Alzheimer's have the advantage of making new friends every second, emphasizing the need to look at things positively.
What is the speaker's view on the increase in Alzheimer's cases in the future?
-The speaker acknowledges that with the world's growing population, expected to reach 10 billion by 2050, there will be a significant increase in Alzheimer's cases. He mentions this as a future challenge, particularly noting the aging populations in countries like China and Japan.
What does the speaker think about the practice of corporate planning in relation to the future?
-The speaker views corporate planning as a form of futurism, where corporate leaders isolate themselves to strategize on making their companies more productive and profitable, while also considering corporate social responsibility.
How does the speaker connect the future of medicine with artificial intelligence?
-The speaker implies that the future of medicine is intertwined with the advent of artificial intelligence, suggesting that AI will play a significant role in how healthcare is delivered and managed.
What is the role of Futuristics in education according to the speaker?
-In the context of education, Futuristics involves curriculum planning where schools, referred to as 'Futuristics,' isolate themselves to strategize on increasing enrollment, profitability, and community usefulness, as well as contributing to national development.
What does the speaker mean by 'strategic intelligence gathering' in the context of national security?
-The speaker refers to 'strategic intelligence gathering' as a vital factor for national security, where diplomats and soldiers collect information to predict and plan for potential conflicts, which can determine the outcomes of wars.
How does the speaker describe the role of economic progress in geopolitical competition?
-The speaker emphasizes that in the 21st century, economic progress is a key factor in geopolitical competition. Governments compete to excel economically, which in turn influences their geopolitical strategies, including arms races and territorial claims.
What is the speaker's opinion on the importance of futurism in personal and national development?
-The speaker believes that futurism is crucial for both personal and national development. It allows individuals and nations to make informed decisions based on current and projected trends, which can lead to better outcomes and progress.
How does the speaker reflect on the Philippines' economic decline and its relation to futurism?
-The speaker laments the Philippines' economic decline from being the second biggest economy in Asia to its current position, attributing it partly to a lack of futurism. He suggests that a mindset change is necessary for the country to progress economically.
What qualities does the speaker identify as essential for a futurist?
-The speaker identifies several qualities as essential for a futurist: being an optimist, having maturity in age and experience, possessing an analytical and critical mind, having a well-rounded background, being an effective communicator, dealing with reality, and thinking globally while acting locally.
Outlines
๐ Optimism and the Future of Alzheimer's
The speaker, at 86 years old, humorously claims to be the oldest in the room and uses this as a segue to discuss the future, particularly focusing on the increasing prevalence of Alzheimer's disease. They highlight the irony that Alzheimer's patients have the 'advantage' of constantly making new friends due to their memory loss. The speaker points out the importance of viewing challenges positively. They also address the growing global population, which is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050, and the implications this has for the increase in age-related diseases like Alzheimer's. The speaker questions whether it's possible to see the future, suggesting that it is, but it requires a lot from the individual. They mention corporate planners who isolate themselves to strategize for the future of their companies, considering productivity, profitability, and corporate social responsibility. The speaker also touches on the changing dynamics in the medical field, with doctors being perceived as rushed and patients becoming more demanding. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the role of artificial intelligence in medicine and the importance of futuristics in education and national development.
๐ The Scope of Futuristics
This paragraph delves into the broad scope of futuristics, starting with the government's role in setting economic goals and the geopolitical arms race, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. The speaker mentions the involvement of countries like North Korea, South Korea, the US, China, Russia, and Iran, and the importance of strategic intelligence in determining the outcomes of conflicts. The discussion then shifts to the role of architects and engineers in master planning, risk management in organizations, and the public's fascination with fortune-telling. The speaker emphasizes that predicting the future is not mysterious but rather a matter of understanding national history, being informed about current events, and recognizing the interconnectedness of global developments. They explain that by analyzing these factors, one can identify trends and changes, and lay down probable scenarios for the future. The speaker uses the simple example of predicting rain based on observing dark clouds to illustrate how futuristics can guide decision-making.
โ๏ธ Preparing for the Future: Personal and National Interests
The speaker continues by discussing how understanding the future can arm individuals with the knowledge to make the best decisions for their personal and national interests. They recount personal experiences from various wars, emphasizing the importance of intelligence and futuristics in military strategy. The speaker shares stories from the Vietnam War, the Korean War, and World War II, highlighting their early involvement in intelligence gathering as a child. They discuss the significance of accurate information in strategic planning and how it contributed to the Allies' victory in World War II. The speaker also mentions the Israeli Six-Day War in 1967 as an example of the successful application of futuristics in military strategy. The paragraph concludes with the speaker's personal experience in the Philippines during martial law under Marcos, where business leaders formed a futurist society to predict and navigate the uncertain political and economic climate.
๐ The Decline of the Philippines and the Importance of Futuristics
In this paragraph, the speaker reflects on the economic decline of the Philippines, which was once the second-largest economy in Asia after Japan. They compare the current state of the Philippines to its past glory and attributes the decline to a lack of futuristics practice. The speaker notes that other countries, like Singapore, have successfully adopted futuristics to guide their development. They discuss the cultural and religious factors that have hindered the Philippines' progress, such as the 'Bahala na' mentality, which they argue is detrimental to economic growth. The speaker calls for a change in mindset and emphasizes the importance of acting now to shape a better future. They also share their professional experience in requiring concise and clear communication, which is essential in international journalism and business.
๐ Qualities of a Futurist
The speaker outlines the qualities necessary to be an effective futurist. They emphasize the need for maturity, both in age and experience, to make stable and emotion-free decisions. The futurist must possess an analytical and critical mind, constantly questioning the origins and implications of events. A well-rounded background in various fields such as politics, economics, social and cultural studies, science, and technology is also crucial. The speaker stresses the importance of effective communication skills, the ability to deal with reality, and the mindset of thinking globally while acting locally. The paragraph concludes with a call to action for the audience to embrace these qualities and apply them in their personal and professional lives.
๐ฃ๏ธ The Role of Communication in Futuristics
This paragraph focuses on the importance of communication in the field of futuristics. The speaker emphasizes the need for clear and concise language, advising against using jargon or redundant phrases. They also stress the importance of listening as a key component of effective communication. The speaker argues that being able to communicate complex ideas in a simple and understandable manner is a vital skill for futurists, as it allows them to share their insights and predictions with a wider audience. The paragraph serves as a reminder that while having a vision of the future is important, the ability to articulate that vision is equally crucial for influencing decision-making and shaping the future.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กFuturistics
๐กArtificial Intelligence
๐กStrategic Intelligence Gathering
๐กEconomic Progress
๐กRisk Management
๐กMaster Planning
๐กCorporate Social Responsibility
๐กPerformance Budget Presentation
๐กArms Race
๐กReligiosity
Highlights
The speaker, at 86 years old, humorously claims to be the oldest in the room and sets a positive tone for discussing the future.
An optimistic view on Alzheimer's, suggesting that those affected have the advantage of making new friends every second.
A prediction that by 2050, the world's population will reach 10 billion, highlighting the scale of future societal challenges.
The importance of corporate planning for future profitability and shareholder benefits, with a nod to corporate social responsibility.
The role of Futuristics in education, where schools plan curriculums to increase enrollment and community impact.
The concept of strategic intelligence gathering in national security and its impact on war outcomes.
The economic competition among governments in the 21st century and its driving force behind geopolitical actions.
The speaker's personal experiences during World War II, including his early involvement in resistance activities.
The significance of intelligence and Futuristics in historical military victories, such as the British in the Sahara Desert and the Israeli Six-Day War.
The establishment of the Philippine Futuristic Society in 1981 under martial law to forecast business and political trends.
China's strategic use of Futuristics in economic and geopolitical planning, including the Asian infrastructure investment fund.
The decline of the Philippines from being Asia's second-largest economy to its current status, questioning the lack of Futuristics practice.
The influence of religious and cultural attitudes on the Filipino mindset, potentially hindering economic progress.
The qualities of a Futuristics practitioner, including optimism, maturity, analytical skills, and effective communication.
The importance of thinking globally and acting locally in Futuristics, as emphasized by the speaker.
Transcripts
I want to start from here because I am
the present the old one I think I'm the
oldest in this room I'll begin with
pleading guilty to be 86 and I'm going
to talk about the future but hearing our
last speaker you know there's something
that really struck me I'm an optimist so
I said if you have Alzheimer's you have
one advantage over all the other people
every second although there are only two
of you in the room you have a new friend
you have to look at things very
positively right but the other side of
things is he's saying a lot of people
are going to be Alzheimer's stricken in
the next he didn't say when but in the
next 2050 the next 50 years you are
going to really have so much of that
disease around why because by then the
total population of the world is going
to be 10 billion 10 billion so think
think of the old guys China which has
1.4 billion now has only one child
policy yet they're getting old Japan is
about the oldest so you will find that
there will be some good things about the
future after hearing all her our
presenters this morning this today I'm
going to ask you is it possible really
to see the future what's your answer
yes or no
it is possible yes but it requires a lot
on the person it is now practiced
actually by some people in the corporate
world they call it the corporate eg
planner they isolate themselves for
three or four days at a row in a row and
they plan how are they going to make the
company much more productive profitable
and above all they are going to have all
the benefits for their shareholders
that's not bad that's not bad that's not
too bad but they also think of what they
call corporate social responsibility and
this is what makes corporation useful
legal citizens of the world now however
earlier we were talking during the break
and on the roundtable and the people
around me what we're saying there's
something wrong with pharmaceuticals
there's something wrong now with the
doctors the doctors are leaving their
good bedside manners and always in a
hurry you know that the patients are now
getting to be more demanding and so
forth now but what happens then how is
the whole business of medicine affected
this is something else that you have say
you have to look at and when we look at
medicine we are also looking at
artificial intelligence
the advent of artificial intelligence
now let me go to the school's the
school's called the Futuristics
in them as curriculum planning every
year they get together again isolate
themselves and look for any avenue that
would increase
enrollment increased profitability
increase usefulness to the community and
most of all to the development of the
nation which every nation there the
diplomats and soldiers call this
strategic intelligence gathering it is
the main and vital factor and the
difference between war between losses
and war and victory the national
government leaders call it the
performance budget presentation Congress
goes over the budget recommendations of
the executive department or the prime
ministers and they look at the the goals
what are the what are the objectives of
the government so that the company the
country is going to progress
economically don't forget that in this
21st century the race the competition
among governments is to accede to excel
economically speaking and when you have
economic speaking economic progress
necessarily by geopolitical requirements
these government's go into an arms race
this is exactly what is now seen in the
asia-pacific region with North Korea and
South Korea the US China Russia and Iran
don't forget there's another factor
Israel but that's a very complicated
thing I'm not going to deal with that
here I merely mentioned it so that you
will have an idea how wide in scope is
Futuristics the architects and engineers
called this master planning they draw up
the blueprint then they follow it to the
letter and they have a timeline when
they're going to finish the construction
as any as in any architectural or
engineering
projects they do stick to the time
limits managers of changes in any
organization I don't care whether it's
non-governmental profit or nonprofit
organizations what they do is they call
it risk management mitigation the only
different terms
now when the circus comes to town you
have another type of Futuristics people
these are the ball gazers the crystal
ball gazes and they're going to give you
what you want to hear what's your future
whether you're going to travel whether
you're going to be ill whether you'll
have a new sweetheart or a broken broken
family life whatever but actually there
is nothing mysterious about predicting
the future in simple terms let me put it
this way we have this slide this is the
future it is the sum total of
understanding our national history what
does that mean you imbibe me you vibe
every chapter of the national history so
that you will understand why and what
you are today by understanding that you
will know and you will be equipping
yourself empowering yourself to be
accurately and currently informed of
domestic regional and international
developments so that you can sew them up
all together all events in the world
regional international or even domestic
have linkages this you cannot avoid it's
only a matter of knowing where the
are then you can cross it then you can
use it to your advantage both for your
personal purposes or the national goals
then we can determine the local trends
and changes what's going to happen
our last speaker just told us
Alzheimer's is going to be here for a
long time so from that you project you
can easily make it and therefore after
having all those you can now lay down
the different or possible probable
scenarios arising from those situations
if this condition is followed through
what is going to happen the very simple
example I'd like to use all the time is
you look out of the window when you wake
up in the morning you see dark clouds
what does that mean in the short term
future in the very near future in the
next minute it will probably rain
therefore what are you going to do
because determining the future or
looking into the future looking into the
possible future gives you the armament
to take the best option that is for you
in this case you see it's going to rain
what's the best option I'll probably
take a raincoat or an umbrella or take a
ride with somebody if I don't have a car
or not go out at all I'm going to do
some of my writing here at home you know
and therefore you can have your coffee
and your meals and you can even play
with your pets if you want to depending
on what you have in other words in other
words playing cleanly stated it is the
art of using the current true
accurate information to promote your own
national interests or to get further
into your goal in life allow me to let
me share with you some true stories that
I've experienced I've seen the Vietnam
War before that I've covered the Korean
War before that I saw the world war
number two as a boy gorilla I shot my
first Japanese soldier and I was 11 I
threw my first hand grenade when I was
12 in ambush of a convoy of Japanese
troops of Japanese troops in Iloilo in
Penang
my father was the intelligence officer
of the peralta gorillas in pnai at that
time and one of my Jobs was to watch at
the breakwater of Olivia between
aluminum Arras Island how low or how
high on the water were the Japanese
transport ships coming in if they were
high in the water that means they were
not fully loaded or they're empty which
means they are probably going to take
out something out the video to get
somewhere if they're very low in the
water that means they're delivering arms
armor armaments bullets or or whatever
it is that that they were bringing and I
didn't know that that was my job it was
just I was I was relating this to my
father and my father were get where was
wrapping vinegar and whiskey to be sent
to the to the town of Macau which was
more than 25 kilometers out of Villa
villa and I was one of those kids who
were taking those brought those whiskey
or her whatever it was hard drinks for
the people in in Macau now
knowing that at night the forces of
General MacArthur was coming in in
submarines in a submarine commanded by
Admiral at that time he was he was a
captain captain cheek Parsons who had a
hardware store here in Manila that was
this that was how we went all through
that now the Allies won over the axis
because of Futuristics practice remember
in our history the forces of the the
Baron of Africa was defeated by the
British because they did not know that
there was going to be some kind of harsh
weather coming in a sandstorm coming in
they did not know that and therefore it
was the intelligence gathering of the
Allies and the British the British were
heading it and that's how they
annihilated the the Nazis in the desert
in the Sahara Desert then you have this
really case remember the Israeli six-day
war in 1967 because of intelligence or
information or futuristic s-- planning
strategic planning the Israelis hardly
six million people surrounded by more
than 60 million Arab states precisely by
Syria by Jordan and by Egypt Israel
annihilated the entire Egyptian Air
Force in less than four hours they
combined the striking capability with
their own intelligence network again
Futuristics then they occupied the West
Bank they got the Sinai
desert and they even got the Bekaa
Valley of Syria then in 1981 this is a
true experience mind experience now in
nineteen 1981 there was martial law in
the Philippines under Marcos and the
businessman did not know where Mark was
was headed
he was bringing the country he was
leading the country nobody else so what
did they do they formed what they called
the Philippine futuristic society to
determine the trends to determine the
the forecasts of the business the
economy the politics even the
environment and that's what we worked on
at that time it it was we transformed it
into what we call the center for
Philippine futuristic studies in 19 2007
so that we now included the students and
the first students our members are from
this University they are now members the
futuristic society China is also doing
Futuristics how they have copied what
the Americans and the Allies have done
immediately after the war at the height
of the Cold War in fact and they are now
getting into what they call the Asian
infrastructure investment fund and that
is to get everybody linked through
railways that's one area that they can
use to avoid being blocked on the South
China Sea although they are claiming and
toto the South China Sea Sea you have to
understand how that started it was not
started by Mao Zedong in 1949 no it was
started in 1950 by Generalissimo Chiang
kai-shek who had to flee to Taiwan
because multi-tone defeated him and the
he was supported by the Americans
remember the Americans the British the
French the Russians and the Chinese who
were then originally under Sun yat-sen
under the command of general
Generalissimo Chiang kai-shek threw off
the the Chinese emperor Qin Dynasty and
however lost too much at all to be able
to get a strategic position in the
region they claim at 12 my 12 - line
claim on the South China Sea when the
Chinese Communists took over China
finally 1958 in the United Nations then
Chinese communist thought of how to do
it how to get their own strategic
position in the South China Sea
that is forward thinking that is
Futuristics and that is what they're
doing right now they are not they are
not minding anybody condemning them for
taking over the South China Sea or
militarizing the South China Sea why
because they know pretty well there is
no enforcement agency of the United
Nations that is going to check them none
at all
so again this is a foresight of the
Chinese and to them we must give them we
must give the credit I am here to tell
you the importance of futuristic s-- not
to support the Chinese Communist Party
[Laughter]
now we come now to the question if you
are so help on futurism
how come this country has deteriorated
constantly immediately after the war the
Philippines were the second biggest
economy next to Japan in Asia when I
went as bureau chief of the Associated
Press to Bangkok
in 1962 by God everybody was looking at
the Philippines as the training ground
everybody was saying the peso is so good
you know but now what is it out of the
ten country members we are number six
were not number two anymore in Asia and
we are not number one Singapore has a
better site has a better view of the
future they copied what was here before
that was the baton export processing
zone and they now have the Jurong
complex I covered it when they launched
the Jurong complex and what is it now
Singapore's the top honcho in the ASEAN
ten again futurism now what holds the
Filipino from practicing futurism all of
the some of these people in the audience
are my students and they know what they
want that's why they're in there they're
enrolled in the College of international
relations some are in journalism they
know what they want but if you go to the
province in the Philippines you ask them
how what do you want to be when you are
twenty five you know what they say Baja
Lana ho Maharana Kong began settling
juice oh whatever God gives us we must
welcome we must not turn down we must
feel lucky and this is the religiosity
of the Filipino that is holding down it
is an anchor on the economic progress of
the Philippines so what I'm saying here
is that should be revised the mentals
the mindset must be revised but what did
what we do what do you have to have to
revise the mindset you see revising or
changing the mind
means you are trying to change the
thinking of the people and that will
require a minimum a minimum of fifty
years in some cases it might even
require a bloody century you know can we
afford it you have no way of doing it
otherwise because as an as a Futuristics
man you must be realistic you must work
with what is possible what is probable
then you lay down your options
what does it that's best for you that is
what you have to do because when you see
what is coming is not favorable to you
then you must act now act now
not wait later you know you must have
that sense of urgency in time the
filipino by enlarge does not have that
kind of mentality in the ballina la
Habana memory buca's phenomena so that
kind of mentality is really debilitating
and is holding down the economic
progress now where I come from if you
talk a lot you're fired now if you
cannot put down in writing what you have
to say in one in one page you're fired
also that is that's the kind of writing
that the international wire services
require so I am going to go no much
further
I'm going to put down here what are the
qualities of a Futuristics man aside
from being an optimist you have to have
the maturity the maturity in age in
experience to be able to render stable
stable emotion free decisions and
judgments on issues particularly if it
concerns yourself
number two you must have the analytical
and critical mind don't stop asking how
and why it's easy to know what and who
and where that's easy you don't have to
ask that but you have to ask how did it
start
why was there such a development there
must be a reason for causing it is it
against me
it against my country is it against our
group yeah those are those have to be
asked then you have to have a
well-rounded background and this is the
hardest part of it you must have to have
a well-rounded background and experience
in politics in economics in social
cultural science behavioral science in
technology and in the environment asking
too much right you become a jack of all
trades and a master of none
but it's going to help you the number
four you must be an effective
communicator don't ever use the same
word you are defining don't say the art
of listening is actually the art of
listening when somebody stopping power
then again you must be able to deal with
reality because reality is what you have
to deal with you cannot get away from
meaning your geography your country your
politics your religion whatever it is so
that you can now work in harmony with
your environment because you cannot get
anywhere you cannot leave this planet
and most of all you think global and act
local
thank you very much
[Applause]
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