🏆 Live Q&A: Why Winners Take Most 💰

Summary

The video transcript discusses the impact of Bitcoin's all-time high on investment cycles, emphasizing the 'Winner Takes Most' principle. It highlights the role of ETFs in driving Bitcoin's price, the supply crunch, and the potential for a bullish market. The speaker shares insights on trading strategies, the importance of mindset, and the potential of AI and DeFi in the crypto market. They also address concerns about the US government's potential use of Tether and the implications of an inverted yield curve, suggesting that traditional financial indicators may not apply in the current economic environment.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker predicts a significant increase in Bitcoin's price due to a supply crunch and constant demand from ETFs.
• 🚀 Bitcoin ETFs have already amassed substantial assets in a short period, indicating strong institutional interest.
• 🔄 The speaker dismisses the left-translated cycle theory, arguing that the current market dynamics are different due to ETFs and reduced supply.
• 💰 The speaker emphasizes the importance of following the money flow and on-chain data rather than chart patterns or conspiracy theories.
• 🏦 The speaker suggests that the ETFs are unlikely to control more than 50% of Bitcoin, given the long-term holders and miners' significant share.
• 📊 The speaker discusses the concept of 'Winner Takes Most' in the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the dominance of leading platforms.
• 🤔 The speaker questions the sustainability of Grayscale's high fees, attributing them to financial pressures faced by the company.
• 🔄 The speaker advises against using leveraged ETFs like TSL due to their volatility and the challenges they pose for long-term investment.
• 🔮 The speaker shares a personal anecdote about transitioning from day trading to swing trading, emphasizing the benefits of longer time frames.
• 📊 The speaker discusses the inverted yield curve and its potential implications for the economy, offering a unique perspective on the situation.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the Q&A session?

The main theme is the concept of 'The Winner Takes Most' and its application to investments, particularly in the context of Bitcoin and the current market dynamics.

How does the speaker view the Bitcoin supply crunch?

The speaker believes the supply crunch is already here, with Bitcoin facing a significant reduction in new supply while demand from ETFs and other sources is increasing.

What is the speaker's forecast for the Bitcoin price one year from now based on current ETF inflows?

If the current inflow of $500 million a day continues, the speaker forecasts that the Bitcoin price could reach $691,000 a year from now.

What is the speaker's stance on the possibility of a left-translated cycle for Bitcoin?

The speaker dismisses the left-translated cycle theory, arguing that the current market dynamics, driven by ETFs and money flow, are different from past cycles.

How does the speaker address concerns about ETFs potentially controlling the Bitcoin market?

The speaker believes it is nearly impossible for ETFs to gain control over 50% of Bitcoin due to the significant portion held by long-term holders and the decentralized nature of Bitcoin mining.

What is the speaker's opinion on the future of Bitcoin ETFs compared to gold ETFs?

The speaker suggests that Bitcoin ETFs could surpass gold ETFs in assets under management due to the scarcity of Bitcoin and the rapid growth in demand.

How does the speaker view the role of education in the current Bitcoin cycle?

The speaker emphasizes that increased education about Bitcoin cycles is leading to more people understanding and front-running the market, which is a significant factor in the current cycle.

What is the speaker's advice for investors considering a shift from day trading to swing trading?

The speaker recommends focusing on higher time frames, finding a good rhythm, and ensuring a positive mindset, as these factors contribute to successful swing trading.

What is the speaker's perspective on the inverted yield curve and its implications for the economy?

The speaker suggests that the inverted yield curve may not be a reliable indicator of a coming recession due to the unprecedented zero interest rate policy environment and other unique factors.

How does the speaker view the current state of the tech industry and its relation to the economy?

The speaker believes that the tech industry may already be in a recession, as evidenced by layoffs and reduced hiring, which could be a sign of broader economic challenges.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin Supply Crunch and ETF Impact

The speaker discusses the Bitcoin supply crunch and its implications on the investment cycle. They mention the significant inflow of money into Bitcoin ETFs, leading to a constant bid and a potential increase in Bitcoin's price. The speaker also addresses the possibility of a left translated cycle and the role of ETFs in accelerating the market cycle.

05:03

🔍 TA Experts and the Left Translated Cycle

The speaker critiques the left translated cycle theory, which suggests that market cycles are happening earlier and faster. They argue that the theory overlooks the increasing adoption of Bitcoin and the significant money flow into the market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of following the money and onchain data rather than chart lines and conspiracy theories.

10:04

🚀 Bitcoin ETFs and Market Control

The speaker addresses concerns about Bitcoin ETFs potentially controlling the market and undermining Satoshi's vision of decentralization. They explain the distribution of Bitcoin holdings, highlighting that long-term holders and miners are unlikely to sell their Bitcoin to ETFs, making it improbable for ETFs to gain more than 50% control.

15:06

📊 Winner Takes Most in Crypto

The speaker discusses the concept of 'Winner Takes Most' in the context of cryptocurrency, emphasizing the importance of identifying and investing in dominant players within the market. They compare the market share and volume of different DeFi platforms and suggest that some older technologies may become obsolete as the industry evolves.

20:06

💰 Grayscale Fees and GBTC

The speaker speculates on why Grayscale might not lower their fees, suggesting that financial pressures due to Genesis' halted withdrawals and debt issues could be a factor. They also discuss the potential impact of GBTC's depletion and the shift of investors to other assets.

25:08

🔄 Transitioning from Day Trading to Swing Trading

The speaker shares personal experiences with day trading and the transition to swing trading. They highlight the benefits of longer time frames, such as reduced stress and better win ratios, and emphasize the importance of finding the right trading rhythm and mindset.

30:11

📊 Yield Curve Inversion and Market Implications

The speaker discusses the inverted yield curve and its traditional interpretation as a predictor of recession. They propose a unique perspective, suggesting that the transition from a zero interest rate policy to higher rates may cause market uncertainty and that the current economic growth may not be reflective of the actual economic health.

35:13

🐠 Adopting a New Marine Friend and Upcoming Events

The speaker announces the adoption of a marine creature named Margarito, who has lost a flipper but continues to thrive. They also mention an upcoming DCA live event on Ivan's channel and encourage followers to stay updated through social media.

Keywords

💡Winner Takes Most

This concept refers to the idea that in certain competitive environments, the entity that comes out on top captures the majority of the rewards. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the dominance of certain players in the cryptocurrency market, where the leading entity (like Bitcoin) gains a significant share of the profits and market attention, often at the expense of others.

💡Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are investment funds that track the price of Bitcoin and are traded on traditional stock exchanges. They allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without actually owning or trading the cryptocurrency directly. In the video, the speaker mentions that the influx of money into Bitcoin ETFs is driving up the price of Bitcoin and contributing to a supply crunch.

💡Supply Crunch

A supply crunch occurs when the demand for an asset exceeds its supply, leading to a shortage and often a rise in price. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses how Bitcoin is facing a supply crunch due to the constant bid from ETFs and other buyers, which could lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin's price.

💡Bull Run

A bull run refers to a period in financial markets where prices are rising or are expected to rise. In the cryptocurrency space, a bull run typically signifies a time when the value of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is increasing rapidly. The speaker in the video forecasts the duration and potency of the next bull run cycle based on current market conditions.

💡Market Cycle

A market cycle refers to the recurring pattern of stages in the market, typically consisting of a bull phase (rising prices) and a bear phase (falling prices). The speaker discusses how the market cycle for Bitcoin is being affected by various factors, including the introduction of ETFs and the behavior of long-term holders.

💡Decentralization

Decentralization in the context of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin refers to the distribution of control and decision-making across a network, rather than being concentrated in a single entity. The speaker addresses concerns about whether the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could undermine the principle of decentralization by centralizing control over a significant portion of Bitcoin.

💡Onchain Data

Onchain data refers to information that is recorded on the blockchain, such as transaction details, wallet addresses, and the movement of cryptocurrencies. This data can be analyzed to gain insights into market trends and user behavior. The speaker emphasizes the importance of onchain data over traditional chart analysis for understanding the cryptocurrency market.

💡Money Flow

Money flow refers to the movement of funds into and out of an investment or market. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses how the money flow into Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs, is a key driver of the market cycle and the potential for future price increases.

💡Left-Translated Cycle

A left-translated cycle is a term used in technical analysis to describe a market cycle that occurs earlier than expected. This concept is often used to predict the timing of market peaks and troughs. The speaker dismisses the left-translated cycle theory as not applicable to the current Bitcoin market dynamics.

💡Education

In the context of the video, education refers to the knowledge and understanding that investors have about market cycles and the factors that influence them. The speaker suggests that increased education among investors can lead to more informed decision-making and potentially alter the traditional market cycle patterns.

Highlights

The Winner Takes Most concept is applied to investments, suggesting that the leading asset in a category will dominate the market.

Bitcoin is facing a supply crunch, with ETFs contributing to a constant bid, potentially leading to a significant price increase.

The speaker predicts that if the current ETF buying trend continues, Bitcoin could reach $691,000 within a year.

The speaker discusses the possibility of a left-translated cycle, suggesting that events may occur earlier and faster than in previous cycles.

Bitcoin ETFs have already reached $50 billion in assets under management in 40 trading days,远超黄金ETF的发展速度。

The speaker believes that the constant bid from ETFs and the scarcity of Bitcoin may prevent a bear market in the future.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of following the money flow and onchain data rather than chart lines or conspiracy theories.

The speaker addresses concerns about ETFs potentially controlling the Bitcoin market, arguing that it is unlikely due to long-term holders and miners.

The speaker discusses the potential for Bitcoin to be mined using excess capacity on smart devices in the future.

The speaker advises on cryptocurrency investment strategies, suggesting focusing on categories like DEXs and AI, and picking winners within those categories.

The speaker explains why Grayscale might not lower their fees, suggesting it could be due to financial pressures and debt issues within the company.

The speaker discusses the risks and challenges of using leveraged ETFs like TSL for exposure to Tesla, highlighting issues with fees, liquidity, and trading costs.

The speaker addresses the possibility of the US government using Tether as a digital dollar proxy, dismissing it as unlikely due to the potential impact on US credibility.

The speaker shares personal experiences with day trading, emphasizing the stress and suggesting a shift to swing trading for better results and less stress.

The speaker provides advice for a young investor looking to reach seven figures, recommending focusing on crypto and using the right tools and time frames.

The speaker discusses the inverted yield curve, offering a unique perspective on why it may not necessarily indicate an upcoming recession.

The speaker mentions the AI Revolution and its impact on the tech industry, suggesting that a recession in tech may already be underway.

The speaker introduces a new adopted baby, Margarito, who has adapted to living without a front flipper, showcasing resilience and adaptability.

Transcripts

hello everybody happy Sunday here we are

big big Q&A um you can summarize

everything we're going to talk about

today in terms of The Winner Takes most

and how it applies to our investments so

thank you all for coming thank you as

well to the mods in the chat and

everybody for being here in fact let me

pop out the chat too I see Mr hammer

thank you so much SAR and cybert and

everybody else cybert that's a cool name

so let's jump in as usual no fill no

shill no waste of time and of the course

this is a disclaimer this is

entertainment never Financial advice and

all the questions come from patreon and

what's really interesting is every week

they all kind of amalgamate around a

common theme so we'll talk about that as

well so first question from Rwanda not

Rwanda we broke the old Bitcoin alltime

High very early how does this affect

your forecast for the cycle High

duration of Bull Run and potency of the

next bare Market

cycle this is a great question and I've

been thinking about this for a long time

in fact Jamie Coots and I were on he was

on my channel last year we expected

maybe December time frame 2024 there be

a supply crunch well I can tell you the

supply crunch is already here we'll get

into that a little bit later as well but

BAS basically I did cover some of this

yesterday and these numbers are crazy

but literally the other the other lesson

today is not just Winner Takes most but

it's all about the ETF that's it it's a

constant bid coming into Bitcoin and

Bitcoin is now facing a supply crunch

but here we go quick recap of

yesterday's sheet of the day we are

doing over 40 trading days $52 million

in average a day going into nine ETFs

that's half a billion dollars a day

these are not the only buyers of Bitcoin

around the planet if this continues all

right given the existing multiplier for

the

existing duration of time that the ETFs

were in place for 40 trading days if it

continues the price will go to $691,000

a year from now again if we continue to

get half a billion a day this thing's

going to run out and in fact the

multiplier will double after the

having and this even you know people

always say but won't people sell as the

price goes up yes they will but the

thing is the money coming in will exceed

that because the money is chasing far

too few Bitcoin there's also a lot of

long-term holders which I talk about too

as well if we just assume a quarter of

the money comes in that'll take take the

price to

$225,000 one year from now another view

of this is this Bitcoin Target one year

after having if history repeats ignoring

the first cycle we get to

$315,000 by April

2025 and I always like to find

Confluence and a number of different

models here we are if we take these two

combined and you go between the actual

ETF constant bid that's coming in with

history repeating one year after having

that'll take us to approximately

somewhere between the 25% and 50 and 50%

and of course the $315,000 target so

either way way it's going to be a very

Bonker cycle and yes as well I've been

talking about how everything is

happening earlier and faster than ever

before and we're going to break this

down in this question next question

which Dov tailes directly into it okay

so thank you Rwanda part two of the

answer is coming right here uh this is

from Mike H some people are calling for

a left translated cycle which would put

the peak sometime in 2024 what do you

think think of this thesis and the odds

of it playing

out I actually forgot one piece for

Rwanda as

well if this Bitcoin ETF is like the

gold ETF remember it took gold 20 years

to get to 90 billion in assets under

management these nine new ETFs have 50

billion already in 40 trading days this

is way bigger than gold ever was but

also Bitcoin is way scarcer so we may

never have a bare Market again I always

said there's a 15 to 20% chance of that

happening so I just want to reiterate

that again there's a constant bid coming

in there are OTC desks calling up miners

directly begging them for Bitcoin right

now begging them you know it's like the

uh the Dave Chappelle meme you got any

of that whatever cheap stuff left it's

exactly what's going on right now the

supply crunch is here and it's a good

time so Mike H1 again left translated

cycle so the people calling it a left

translate left translated cycle are the

TA experts and this is how they do that

they draw lots of lines on a chart and

they come up with the

theory now my theory is different and

has been from the beginning and I've

always said follow the money watch the

money flow watch the onchain data cuz

all the answers are there not with lines

on a chart and not with conspiracy

theories so let's break it down my view

not anybody else's regarding this whole

left translated cycle I think it's BS um

so basically what it does it means

everything is happening earlier and

faster which is true yes but it's

because of the ETFs everybody and the

Assumption as well that there is the

predictable B cycle is flawed because

this time time is different we are going

into less

Supply far less liquid supply for the

first time ever and far more money for

the first time ever and we're going to

go from 900 Bitcoin issue a day to 450

and there are sovereigns buying 10,000

Bitcoin a

day the ETFs are absorbing 10,000

Bitcoins a

day okay retail the smart retail is not

selling so just put all this pieces

together in your head now the other

stuff that I noticed as

well the cycle is a function of money

flow I'll repeat that one more time it's

also a function of Education okay so the

difference between this cycle and

previous Cycles as more people know

about the having last cycle people kind

of knew about it but didn't actually

count down the days and everything else

like they do now like I do every single

day almost and the cycle before that

nobody had a clue right now there's so

much more education on what the Cycles

actually mean so what happens is people

front run it so that's a big part of it

too um also the left translated Cycle

Theory overlooks increasing

adoption again there's much more people

in Bitcoin right now than there was

before and also it's now a mature asset

class so earlier and higher been saying

for the last 15 months yes it's here but

the driver is money flow and the driver

could be a constant bid for the next

eight years if it's anything like gold

we already know it's harder than gold

and it's gone higher than gold has it's

nearly at the size of gold it'll

probably be assets under management be

90 billion I'd say within 6 weeks at

this rate six more weeks it took gold 20

years to get to this level and the

people who own the old shiny rocks

they're they're selling their gold ETF

and they're buying the Bitcoin ETF okay

so that is my take and I tend to be I'm

I like the black sheep PS the black

color I I don't follow the clock I Blaze

my own trail okay so uh a quick reminder

all of this is driven by the ETFs

period the money coming in is driving

Bitcoin earlier higher because bitcoin's

never seen so much money hit in such a

short window of time of 40 trading days

all right so I want that to be very

clear to everybody if you want to follow

people that do this fair enough but

that's not what it's about um next which

is kind of related too from

vanill we are bullish with the

introduction of ETFs and all money

coming in but if ETFs buy up more than

50% of Bitcoin and they control and

regulate the whole Market would the

whole point of Satoshi not being

defeated decentralization out the window

so first of all I love the way

everybody's thinking you all have the

right paranoid mindset and as I say as

well for years only the paranoid would

survive uh Andy Grove former CEO of uh

Intel I read his book and that always

stuck with me it amazing always be

paranoid these questions are fantastic

but let's break down uh to exactly what

we're talking about here I shared this a

few weeks ago this is my view of who

holds all the Bitcoin so it's about

50.8% individuals most of those are

long-term hodlers many of those have

actually lost their keys so that'll

never come into existence then you have

the miners they hold about 3 .6% 6% is

yet to be mind 23.8% has lost and

Satoshi 5% has lost there uh governments

own 2.7% the funds in ETFs only have

3.5% right now and other businesses both

public and private own

4.1% that's the makeup so from where we

are today for the ETFs to get over

50% is a massive struggle because they

got to pry a truckload of Bitcoin from

cold dead hands lost Keys Etc it'll be

extremely difficult if not impossible to

ever get to 50% of Bitcoin actually I'll

say it here it's impossible for them to

do that in addition let's take into

account the long-term holders as well

the debate always exists you know what

what are these people going to do well

many of the long-term holders that are

in since 10 bucks 100 bucks $3,000

they're waiting for a million dollars

nothing nothing will make them sell and

when it gets to a million dollars you

know what they're going to do they're

going to borrow against it it's kind of

what the wealthy people do they borrow

against their stock they don't sell

their stock they don't sell that City

Block in Manhattan I think a sailor

always likes to say as well if you look

at the hotle waves here I drew a red

line across this chart from look to

bitcoin and you can see nearly 60% is

held by people that hold Bitcoin for

more than two or three years I can't

remember the exact color I think it's 3

years plus yeah 3 years plus is held by

nearly 60% of the people it will be

impossible for the ETFs to get their

hands on this some may turn in their

keys and move to an ETF for security

reasons or whatever else but most will

not especially the ogs who don't even

like the thought of Black Rock touching

their Bitcoin in fact many of them are

quite upset about it they don't trust

Larry fster Etc but anyway so from that

perspective I am not concerned at all

impossible there's another example as

well it's kind of not touched on here

but you have to remember as well that

Bitcoin is mined and there's a massive

amount of decentralization amongst the

miners they are the people that control

the network at the end of the day and

there are nation states mining Bitcoin

there are flare gas installations mining

Bitcoin for nation states there are

villages in the Congo mining Bitcoin and

making chocolate and all sorts of stuff

and then there's volcano mining

happening so when you when you just hear

about the public miners that's a spit in

the bucket as to what's going on and

soon there will be a time when people

will be able to mine Bitcoin using

excess capacity on their smart devices

or chips in their cars or whatever else

and that will be a very special time

indeed that's all coming the next four

years will be a very special time so

hope that answers your question next is

from nect

torine just joined patreon probably

years too late but no sooner did I do

that he sent out a message which I call

Trade alert about Sal chat which I got

into and I paid my patreon for the next

5 years well done so the question I hold

Rune and has been idle for ages although

it's just started a climb you say let

lay your traps but also say back the

fastest horse stay with run or swap for

render interesting question

so let's break it down let's look at the

uh first of all the chat chart this is

where the Trad art came out and chat has

been on fire um there was a lot of good

press as well that came out uh we'll be

talking more about those guys probably

in the near future but well done on chat

um now Rune let's look at the eight yarn

Rune because it is now at level three

which is not bad that means it's no

longer a zombie so we definitely do not

like things under level one won 15

months into a bull market run had a very

nice Spike as you can see there and you

can see the history of where it's come

from will get back to alltime highs I

don't know but let's look at some

fundamentals what's happening out there

and this is the beginning of what I talk

about Winner Takes most we'll touch on

this a few times today uh let's look at

Dex volumes right now salana is number

one run is number five okay Sol Dex

volume is now nearly six times higher

than Thor chain Rune and jup Jupiter

alone does more than 2x what Rune does

and it's brand new so as I've always

said before as well and I know people

don't like to hear this but the old

stuff is going away now unlike unlike

other Industries as an investor you have

to understand that sometimes first mover

Advantage gets the most but in crypto

because the technology advancements are

so rapid the technology from 4 years ago

is now becoming obsolete very quickly to

better cheaper faster black holes it's

been my thesis now all along you've

heard me till I'm blue in the face so

let's talk about this uh a little chart

remember Winner Takes most stay with the

winners look at the Mark market

dominance by Major players with the best

product Market fit look at the

advantages of the platforms the

advantages of the ecosystems the

advantages of the network effect Etc and

this will highlight the dominant players

who are going to win over the next year

and a half two years when everything

radically changes now I put together a

very crude little model because

sometimes people the penny will drop

when they see the actual numbers so

literally shout out to Mark andreon I

heard him say this in at a presentation

decades ago and it stuck with me this is

why I always say Winner Takes most I

think he said Winner Takes all or

something but anyway I say winter takes

most because they don't take it all but

over time the number one player in a

space will make 90% of the profits that

may not mean 90% of the revenue may only

be 50% of the revenue but 90% of the

profits okay the number two player will

get 10% and the rest will fight over

nothing and not be able to make a profit

this works for any

industry okay any industry you look at

Google for search look at Android for

operating systems uh you got Amazon for

online online e-commerce it's always the

same and crypto is going to be no

different now back to your question so

you flip Ru

into what was the the asset you're

considering render I think render I did

a should I buy a year

ago it's embarrassing how sound back my

numbers were uh people were making fun

of me I think we've we forx my bull

market Target already but anyway it

doesn't matter I'm still holding my

render and it has gone up a lot but what

I like to do is stick within categories

I like to pick winners in each category

that I know will do very well in the

bull market the big ones for me are

dexes and AI okay that's kind of my

crypto play not dabble in a little bit

of other stuff but that's kind of where

the majority of the play is and you can

see here this is from the crypto

compendium this is a list of all the

players we have a massive system that

brings in all the data from over 45

different apis and real time so we can

find out exactly what's going on you can

see here though Unis swap is number one

on the Dex list and this also includes

Dex aggregators like one inch all right

Unis swap is number one market cap 8 and

half billion run is number two market

cap 3 billion dollar look down the line

at Jupiter a billion dollars and it's

only just begun so from this perspective

considering the actual

volume okay going back to Brass tax and

this is how I invest I do relative

valuation assessments and I buy what's

cheap or what's going to take over the

world and you see here Jupiter does

twice the volume that thorchain does but

thorchain has three times the market

cap and you get tremendous rewards from

using Jupiter as well so I do believe

Jupiter will be one of the players that

takes most in the future we'll see if

I'm right uh so that's what I would do

because you like Rune you like the dexes

maybe think about flipping but uh when

the tide turns as well in the chart I

hope that helps you next question is

from just someone why doesn't grayscale

lower their fees ah interesting question

get this get this a lot a lot of people

are perplex like every is like 20 basis

points 25 basis points slash fees for

the first 10 billion

Etc this is the story I believe I could

be wrong but grce scale under dcg's

ownership faces tons of financial

concerns uh because of Genesis halted

withdrawals and they have tons of debt

issues dcg aims to alleviate the

financial pressure by selling the gbtc

stuff at a high fee so they can have

money coming in so they can repay

creditors they can also repay interest

on debt um and may maybe a whole bunch

of other stuff we don't even know about

what's happening behind the curtain

there's also a lot of weird Financial

interplay between great scale dcg and

Genesis and that shows you why we need

to get much better of scrutinizing how

these players operate and soon I hope

all the bad players will be flushed from

the system and at the current rate of

depletion of

gbtc remember all the people in gbtc as

well they were speculators some people

had it in retirement accounts but at

least half speculators and they're all

leaving right now they're cashing out

and they're moving to something else

they're not moving into another Bitcoin

ETF they're probably buying an altcoin

or buying some Technology stock or

something else they're speculators and

people forget that people think the

money is leaving gbtc and going direct

directly to Fidelity or Black Rock

that's not what's happening at all about

40% maybe is the other 50 to 60% is

going elsewhere so remember that and I

do believe over time gbtc will just

continue to shrink or they sell

themselves to somebody else now speaking

of winner take most again this is just a

quick little chart from the financial

times and you can see here winner Can

you spot the winner anybody that's that

blood red line going up to the right I

share as Bitcoin trust they will be the

dominant player they are peeling away

into the distance Fidelity number two

and then you have other other names that

just they just have crumbs

and this will soon correspond to this

okay Winner Takes most it's just what

happens it's the way of the world

everybody and you got to get used to it

as well and the reason I stressed this

today is because a lot of people their

strategy is hope they have poop coin

number 20 in a category and they think

it's going to do what poop what the

winning coin not what the winning coin

is going to do is it doesn't happen that

way everybody Winner Takes most okay I

hope I hammered that home enough today

next

question this is from Eureka and mind

beats two people if you have cash in a

retirement account that only allows you

to buy ETFs would you consider TSL for

more exposure to Tesla and would you

recommend any ETF that has a high Tesla

allocation percentage or just invest

elsewhere so I did look at TSL it is

called Rex first of all when you look at

these leverage ETF there's a couple of

things to be aware of first of all they

do have fees the expense ratio is

1.05% not as high as the gray scale 1.5%

but there's other stuff that happens too

which cause me problems first of all uh

leverage ETFs like

TSL they achieve their objectives on a

daily basis so the price doesn't exactly

track the stock and you know Tesla can

be very volatile so that's that's a big

issue right there and they also can lose

grip with the stock price over long

longer periods of time due to effects of

compounding you know having that lag on

a daily basis also the fees um in

addition liquidity can also be a

challenge like there's a thing called

Oso there are many times that I try to

buy it I can't I can't buy it there's no

liquidity for the the size of buys that

I'm trying to make there's no liquidity

so if you're moving large amounts of

money sometimes you can have problems

with these things too also there's a

very wide bit ass spread and potentially

higher trading cost remember if the bid

ass spread is one and a half 2% it can

take a long time to get that back

combine that with the fees and other

things so just bear that in mind now

let's talk about how it can cut both

ways too what I did was I overlaid a

couple of things in the chart this is

the Tesla chart and it's going back a

year and it's down 3% so over the year

it has not done well at all but we did

go to 300 which was amazing from 106

but that's the nature of the volatile

Beast it is a volatile beast and it's

been hammered left right and Center by

mainstream

media the

BBC the BBC said Tesla caused the fire

in the Berlin

Factory I

mean when the world knows it was an

arson attack Tesla did not cause the

fire but that's everybody's coming after

Tesla cuz they're threatening everybody

and everything okay

so getting back to these charts the

other two charts I have is I have got

the T TSL and teal there and I have the

pair chart of TSL divided by Tesla

that's the yellow line and you can see

here it cuts both ways so if you did if

you got into Tesla say back

in say November 2023 6 months ago

October October say uh you would have

lost a lot more in the TSL so what that

basically means is make sure you buy it

at bottoms otherwise you get double

double the hit double the losses so cut

that's what I mean by Cuts both ways um

so but for you if we are at the bottom

right now so we've been hit with a lot

of

fud uh the Berlin Factory is going to be

closed to I think March 17th another

week because there's no electricity not

just for that factory but for a big part

of that whole area um that's going to

impact q1 results no fanza buts but

that's already probably factored in so

the people selling now it's probably too

late to sell the idea was to be able to

anticipate an arson attack and q1's also

bad anyway but the world is begin to

wake up too to all the goodness that's

coming even Normie analysts that never

lik Tesla before they say well you know

we're looking at bot valuations and um I

Heard Tesla has a bot and they've got

some AI stuff and everything else it is

the biggest AI company on the planet so

it will pop I just can't say when but

it's been hit with every single storm

that you could imagine but the results

will speak for themselves very soon so I

hope that helps uh next question is from

straight jacket is it possible the US

government could be using tether as a

digital dollar cbdc proxy and what

happens when or if they decide to rug

pull tether on its treasur

incredible so this is again I like the

way you think it's good to understand

exactly you know be

paranoid cover every angle when it comes

to investing in assets but there's a

couple of things I would say would the

US rug pull tether um so for me there's

no indication that the US is using

tether as a proxy for cbdc despite

tether's US Treasury Holdings and a rug

pull by the US on Tether treasury would

jeopardize the US's credibility in

global markets by suggesting it might

default on debts and the chance of the

US defaulting on debt to tether is zero

given the high stakes of maintaining a

solid borrower reputation remember as

well tether is actually doing the US

Treasury a huge favor by buying all the

debt there aren't a lot of people buying

US debt anymore especially with bricks

Nations Etc so they should be very happy

for tether

and that's why smart lawmakers see the

importance of stable coins uh as we go

forward to help the dollar survive the

onslaught of not being a popular

currency now with all of the

polarization

between bricks and non- Bricks places

out there on Earth so I don't think it's

a concern there's also other concerns

that the us is going to try try control

Bitcoin to try push cbdcs to is like no

that's not how it works as we covered

before anyway Rico

spider I'm finding it difficult to find

my rhythm I've been momentum day trading

the past year but it's timec consuming

stressful and not successful and

thinking about swing trading instead did

you encounter this when you first

started out and what you did to resolve

it yeah so first of all I measure

everything and I used to day trade a

long time ago in the '90s but it is very

stressful very stressful and it's a lot

easier to do today cuz it's far better

tools and the markets are 24/7 in crypto

but even back then you know I dabbled

with scalping as well testing out some

tools but it just gives you a pain in

your head and I don't mind watching

monitors for 16 18 hours a day but that

is is hard and you don't need that type

of stress plus there's another Advantage

too longer time frames and I figured

this out as well back in the '90s the

more time you have the easier it is you

can better manage your probability

abilities too it's very difficult to

predict something over a 5 minute time

frame but it's super easy to do it over

a 4-Hour time frame so this will bring

you into the swing Zone um and there's a

couple of things that will be far less

stressful you will enjoy the higher time

frames you got much better probabilities

much better win ratios and you can

develop your own strategy too and it's

very important as well once you do that

as well once you find your Rhythm you

got to review and adjust it too cuz

markets do change assets do change we go

from bare mark to Bull markets in fact

did I even show it back here with Rune

on the ATR so what we do actually with

our models we superimpose the bare

Market in the background that's that red

bar there I forgot to mention it that's

the bare market so when you're in a bare

Market it's very very important you

adjust how you play play the game okay

um so let's go back to where we were

make sure I can find it um

um here we are

yes uh hang

on yeah sorry wanted to show you that as

well uh always review and adjust

depending on market conditions and

remember the most important thing is the

mindset is your friend or your

enemy if you're not in the right frame

of mind if something is rattling you if

you got a a burning problem elsewhere or

if you're feeling down or if you're not

enthusiastic you're not going to tr

trade well so probably the most

important thing is make sure you love

doing it make sure you're in a good

frame of mind otherwise you will not be

successful and then find what you're

interested in find the asset classes

find your Tempo excise the right ones

and then use the tools we'll talk about

some of the different tools that are

available tied into this

question um again everything's Duff

tailing together this is from undeniable

I'm in my late 20s and I've amassed a

six figures in my portfolio well done

for such a young person that's very

impressive and remember I always say

this

too it's it's easy it's hard to get to

like 100 Grand but to go from 100 to a

million is easy and to go from a million

to 10 million is even easier again so

just like exponentiality the same thing

works as your portfolio so you're going

to be very successful no if signs or

butts but I want to get into trading

options Futures to reach seven figures

faster without recklessness I like the

way you think um leaning more towards

crypto to start with to take advantage

of the volatile Market what I tools

would you suggest to use and over what

time frames would be best so as per the

previous question my favorite time zone

is 4 hour because I can get a kind of a

macro view of Trends and where things

are going but when it comes to striking

I zoom into the hour and then the 15

minute then the 5 minute 5 minute

determines when I buy

so you got to zoom out and then zoom in

it's like how do I say I'm not a hunter

I never shoot an animal but this is the

analogy I like to use imagine you're

looking across a field and you have a

rifle with a scope and you're looking

for something that's like the 4 Hour

then you see something rustling in the

bushes you zoom into the 1 hour and then

you get really still you breathe

carefully 15 minute you're focusing and

then five that's kind of the simp way to

think about it in terms of the tools we

are working on something it's taking a

bit longer to come to Market but we have

a an investor profiler system that's

going to be online free for anybody to

use and'll help you identify your blind

spot and we're going to map that back to

things that will help those blind spots

but this is kind of the model cheat

sheet you can just pause it here and you

can see all the stuff we have it'll talk

about the trader type the experience

level the different settings you know

what type type of time frame like the

daily or the 4H hour whatever else the

short code and what they are for and how

they work so I suggest you you've got to

again per the previous question you've

got to find the assets you're interested

in find the winners enjoy what you do

find out how much time you can allocate

towards trading and then find the fit of

model and then adjust paper trade dial

it in find your Rhythm and then make

your million

dollars and again it's harder to make

the first 100,000 than the next million

uh yield curve this from poop blast the

yield curve has been inverted since the

summer of 2022 what do you think about

that well let's have a look at this a

lot of people are talking about yield

curve but I also have my radical Theory

as to why I don't believe much of the

stuff that's out there so this is the

yield curve so first of all the blue

blue and orange is the let me see it's

the 10e the 2-year minus the 10-year

interest rate and the red line is a

chart that shows you exactly when it's

inverted a courtesy of caprioli

Investments now the red dots indicate

when the yield curve is inverted across

the top on a daily basis or on a monthly

basis so yeah you can see here we go

back to 2022 where this yield curve has

been inverted it was also inverted

briefly in March 2020 during c19 and

before that was up to the global

financial crisis and a lot of people

still have PTSD from the global

financial crisis because said well the

yield curve is inverted how come we

didn't see the global financial crisis

coming and then they think it's kind of

an indicator of something bad is really

going to happen now my conspiracy theory

is a little bit different as always so

first of all I think it is a bit

different this time because we are

transitioning from what the IAL Zer

that's the zero interest rate policy uh

to higher rates because we've never been

in a zero interest rate policy

environment before the markets maybe

don't know how to react it could just be

a complete curve bow and we have been

inverted since summer

2022 but because Zer maintained low

interest rates for so long that

encouraged a lot of borrowing and

investment and then changing

expectations of rate increases has led

to the

inversion and the inversion with

short-term rates surpassing long-term

rates signals worries of course about

the economy and now you've got a very

paranoid uh Jerome Powell

who missed the whole inflation thing

said it was transitory and now he wants

to make sure he kills it even if the US

spends one and a. half trillion dollars

a year on interest and blows up deficits

so a little bit of ego is getting in the

way here now could the yield curve

inversion that's been there for for now

2 years almost indicate a recession yeah

but we've already had a recession we had

two quter of negative growth and all the

growth that's happening right now when

you see GDP of 5% it's like well the

economy is growing yay is it's going

really no no no no no no no the

government is doing kind of

stealthy investment in itself and that's

what's ex growing GDP it doesn't hit

your pocket okay so that's the important

thing could have recession come yeah

have we had recessions already in the

last two years yeah 18 states in the US

were in recession and we had two

quarters of negative growth and all the

growth today is fake so we could

actually be in a recession for all we

know and again as I always say by the

time you find out you're in a recession

the markets are already coming out of it

so there definitely there is a big Tech

recession too we also have something

very interesting going on as well again

in This Time It's Different news we have

the AI Revolution happening and you look

at the layoffs across Tech and many many

other Industries that's only just begun

and it's been brutal in technology You

could argue Tech has been in a recession

the stocks may not reflect that but if

you are looking at the payroll and the

number of employees definitely does so

there are my thoughts I think in summary

because we came from a zero interest

rate environment it's very difficult to

understand exactly how this chart will

work and if it'll trigger a recession

because everything is fake anyway

so just how it is and these are things

to be aware of uh again like like the

the left what was the left thing we

covered earlier left

translated

this left translated

cycle people are stuck in the past and

the drawing lines well in 1990 it did

this therefore it's going to do this now

everything is different everything is

different okay remember that everybody

and the favorite part of the week we

have a new uh a new adopted little baby

this is margarito is very curious

friendly and social

manity who unfortunately lost the left

front flipper and now uses remaining

right flipper and tail as propellers and

to get around and makes it happen so

thank you all for making that possible

and tomorrow we have DCA live on Ivan's

Channel Ivan's been traveling around a

lot so he is back 7:30 a.m. Pacific

10:30 am eastern US time and 3:30 or

4:30 I I get so confused now because

with Mando last week I forgot that

Portugal is 3:30 Central EUR European

Time could be 4:30 but then there spring

forward time changes I don't know what

time it is so follow me on Twitter on

patreon you get notification half an

hour before the video goes live so thank

you all as well and don't forget to

subscribe if you want to get smarter uh

that's all I'm here for No Frill no

shill let's do some questions and thank

you as well to the mods in the chat too

and everybody for coming hope

everybody's having a great time I'm

sorry I get confused my time zones but

anyhow it is confusing Let's see we have

whoa a bunch of questions

today okay bman another beautiful day to

get some extra wisdom knowledge and

understanding and James Bitcoin Supply

crunch is so fascinating it is