You Can Predict BITCOIN’s Price?! This Report Explains How!

Summary

The video discusses a report by crypto research firm k33 that identifies factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements. These factors are categorized into demand, supply, and structural factors. Demand factors include sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, and accessibility; supply factors encompass the Bitcoin halving and lost/found coins; while structural factors involve portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and Bitcoin miners. Understanding these factors can provide an edge in the crypto market, especially when considering the impact of retail sentiment, news, and leverage on short-term price action, and macro factors on long-term trends.

Takeaways

• 📈 The primary reason for market pumps or dumps is often attributed to BTC's price movements, with the rest of the crypto market typically following suit.
• 🔍 A report by crypto research firm k33 provides insights into the factors influencing BTC price action, aiming to help predict market trends.
• 💡 BTC's price is influenced by a combination of momentum factors, grouped into demand, supply, and structural factors, each with varying degrees of impact.
• 📊 Demand factors include sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, and accessibility, with retail investors often being the biggest drivers of sentiment moves.
• 📈 Supply factors encompass the Bitcoin halving, lost and returned BTC, with the halving event and potential sell-off of Mt. Gox BTC being significant considerations.
• 🏦 Structural factors involve portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and the activities of Bitcoin miners.
• 🌐 Accessibility of BTC, especially through regulated exchanges and ETFs, is crucial for its price movement and investor participation.
• 📉 Retail investor leverage trading can lead to increased volatility in BTC's short-term price, with liquidation heat maps providing insights into potential market movements.
• 🔮 Macro factors, although currently less correlated with BTC, can still have a significant impact on its price, especially if a major macro event spooks institutional investors.
• 🚀 The report suggests that a continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with a reduced supply, could lead to substantial gains for BTC in the future.
• 📊 By understanding and tracking the various factors affecting BTC's price, investors can potentially gain an edge in the crypto market and make more informed trading decisions.

Q & A

What is the primary factor that often drives the rest of the crypto market according to the script?

The primary factor that often drives the rest of the crypto market is the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC). When BTC pumps or dumps, the rest of the crypto market usually follows suit.

What is the main purpose of the report titled 'The Forces Moving Bitcoin'?

The main purpose of the report is to present a framework that determines what causes BTC to pump or dump, helping investors understand and predict the factors influencing BTC's price movements.

What are the three categories of factors that influence BTC's price according to the report?

The three categories of factors that influence BTC's price are demand factors, supply factors, and structural factors.

How does the report suggest retail investors typically act in relation to BTC's price?

The report suggests that retail investors tend to be the biggest drivers of sentiment moves, buying when prices are high and selling when prices are low.

What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving mentioned in the report?

The Bitcoin halving is significant because it reduces the number of newly mined BTC, effectively decreasing the inflation rate and potentially leading to higher prices due to reduced supply.

What are the potential risks associated with lost and returned BTC?

Potential risks include the sudden return of a large amount of BTC to the market, such as the coins from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which could lead to selling pressure and affect BTC's price.

How does the report link the behavior of institutional investors to BTC's price?

The report links the behavior of institutional investors to BTC's price by noting that their trading activities, such as the trading of BTC Futures on exchanges like the CME, can predict and influence BTC's price movements.

What is the impact of portfolio rebalancing on BTC's price?

Portfolio rebalancing can limit BTC's volatility but also increase its correlation to traditional assets. As BTC gets introduced to institutional portfolios, it will be bought when it underperforms and sold when it outperforms, following the rebalancing strategy.

How does the report suggest using its findings to gain an edge in the crypto market?

The report suggests being aware of each factor affecting BTC's price and understanding how BTC's price tends to affect the rest of the crypto market. By tracking sentiment, current and potential future headlines, leverage, accessibility, and macro factors, investors can gain an edge.

What are the challenges faced by altcoin markets due to regulatory changes mentioned in the script?

The challenges faced by altcoin markets due to regulatory changes include restricted access to offshore exchanges for users in certain regions, such as the US and UK, and stablecoin restrictions for users in the EU starting in July.

How can investors assess retail sentiment and its potential impact on BTC's price?

Investors can assess retail sentiment by using various sentiment indicators, with social media platforms like Crypto Twitter being a key source for gauging the sentiment of retail investors.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Movements and BTC's Influence

This paragraph discusses the common question of why the crypto market moves the way it does, attributing most market pumps or dumps to BTC's own price movements. It introduces a report by crypto research firm k33 that aims to provide a framework to understand what causes BTC's price to fluctuate. The report emphasizes that while it's impossible to predict BTC price action with 100% certainty, the framework can serve as a starting point. It also highlights that BTC's predetermined supply, governed by its protocol, sets it apart from other assets with less predictable supply dynamics.

05:00

🔍 Demand Factors Influencing BTC's Price

The paragraph delves into the demand factors that influence BTC's price, categorizing them into sentiment, news, utility, macro cyclicality, and accessibility. It explains how different investor types (long-term holders, institutional investors, and retail investors) impact the market sentiment and how their actions can be assessed through various indicators. The paragraph also discusses the role of news, utility in international trade, macro factors, and cyclical market behaviors in affecting BTC's price. Lastly, it touches on the importance of accessibility and how it can influence BTC's price regardless of demand.

10:01

💰 Supply Factors and Structural Factors

This section examines the supply side factors affecting BTC's price, such as the Bitcoin halving and lost or returned BTC. It discusses the impact of halving on BTC's inflation rate and how continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs could lead to substantial gains for BTC. The paragraph also considers structural factors like portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and the role of Bitcoin miners. It provides insights into how these factors can influence BTC's price in both short-term and long-term scenarios.

15:02

📊 Using the Framework for Trading BTC

The paragraph outlines how traders can use the report's framework to gain an edge in the crypto market. It emphasizes the importance of being aware of the various factors affecting BTC's price and how these factors can influence the rest of the crypto market. The paragraph provides a breakdown of how these factors affected BTC's price in different quarters from 2020 to 2024 and suggests that most factors will be positive in the remaining quarters, with the exception of leverage and macro factors. It also discusses the challenges faced by the altcoin market due to regulatory changes and provides strategies for assessing market sentiment, news impact, leverage, and macro factors.

20:03

🚀 Strategies for Navigating the Crypto Market

The final paragraph offers strategies for using the report's findings to gain a competitive advantage in the crypto market. It advises focusing on retail sentiment, news impact, and leverage for BTC, while considering accessibility and macro factors for altcoins. The paragraph suggests using sentiment indicators and following crypto-related discussions on platforms like Twitter to assess market sentiment. It also recommends keeping track of macro factors by listening to podcasts featuring macro experts and understanding the inherent volatility of altcoins relative to BTC. By monitoring these factors, investors can potentially gain a better understanding of market movements and make more informed trading decisions.

Keywords

💡Crypto Market

The Crypto Market refers to the digital marketplace where various cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) are traded. It is characterized by price volatility and is influenced by a multitude of factors such as investor sentiment, news, macroeconomic indicators, and regulatory developments. In the video, the Crypto Market's movements, particularly those of Bitcoin, are central to understanding the broader trends and potential investment strategies within the space.

💡Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin, often referred to as BTC, is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. It operates on a decentralized network and has a limited supply, making it a digital store of value similar to gold. The price movement of Bitcoin often sets the trend for the entire Crypto Market, as other cryptocurrencies tend to follow its lead. The video emphasizes the importance of understanding the factors that influence Bitcoin's price action to gain an edge in the Crypto Market.

💡Demand Factors

Demand Factors are elements that influence the desire of investors and traders to buy or hold a particular asset, such as Bitcoin. These factors include sentiment, news, utility, macroeconomic conditions, cyclicality, and accessibility. In the context of the video, understanding demand factors is essential because they play a significant role in driving the price of Bitcoin and, by extension, the overall Crypto Market.

💡Supply Factors

Supply Factors pertain to the availability of an asset, such as Bitcoin, in the market. For Bitcoin, this includes the total maximum supply of 21 million coins, the rate at which new coins are mined, and the occurrence of events like the Bitcoin halving, which reduces the number of new coins minted. Additionally, lost and returned BTC can affect the effective supply. In the video, supply factors are crucial for understanding Bitcoin's price dynamics because they directly influence its scarcity and, consequently, its value.

💡Structural Factors

Structural Factors are underlying, often systemic, elements that can influence the price of an asset over time. In the context of Bitcoin and the Crypto Market, these include portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and the activities of Bitcoin miners. The video emphasizes that these factors can have both short-term and long-term impacts on Bitcoin's price and, therefore, the broader Crypto Market.

💡Sentiment

Sentiment refers to the overall attitude or feeling of investors and traders towards a particular asset or financial market. In the context of the video, sentiment is a key demand factor that influences the price of Bitcoin. It can be categorized into long-term holders, institutional investors, and retail investors, each with their own behaviors and reactions to market conditions.

💡News

News, in the context of the video, refers to significant announcements or events that can influence the Crypto Market. This can range from regulatory developments to product launches, such as the introduction of Bitcoin Futures ETFs. News events can have a direct impact on investor sentiment and, consequently, on the demand for and price of Bitcoin.

💡Macro Factors

Macro Factors are economic and geopolitical developments that affect the overall financial markets, including the Crypto Market. These factors include interest rates, inflation, and global economic growth. While Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against traditional financial markets, it is not immune to macro factors, especially when its correlation with traditional assets changes.

💡Accessibility

Accessibility in the context of the video refers to how easily investors can gain exposure to Bitcoin. This can be through direct purchase on crypto exchanges or indirectly through vehicles like ETFs. The ease of access can influence the demand and, subsequently, the price of Bitcoin. The video highlights that accessibility is a crucial factor, as it can determine whether institutional investors and retail traders can participate in the market, thereby affecting Bitcoin's price.

💡Leverage

Leverage in the context of the Crypto Market refers to the practice of borrowing funds to increase one's purchasing power in the hopes of amplifying potential profits. However, it also amplifies potential losses. Retail investors often use leverage to go long or short on Bitcoin, which can lead to significant price volatility. The video emphasizes that leverage plays a major role in short-term price action and can cause BTC's price to deviate from its expected levels.

💡Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin Halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This event is significant because it decreases the inflation rate of Bitcoin, making it more scarce and potentially increasing its value over time. The video discusses the Bitcoin halving as a key supply factor that can influence Bitcoin's price and the broader Crypto Market.

Highlights

The report from crypto research firm k33 provides a framework to understand what causes Bitcoin (BTC) to pump or dump.

BTC's price movement often leads the rest of the crypto market.

The framework considers both changing and interacting factors that influence BTC's price.

BTC's supply is predetermined and scarce,不同于其他资产.

Demand factors for BTC include sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, and accessibility.

Retail investors tend to drive sentiment moves, buying high and selling low.

Institutional investors can be assessed by analyzing BTC Futures trading on exchanges like CME.

News, such as major announcements or Black Swan events, can influence BTC's price locally.

BTC's utility in international trade may increase its demand.

Macro factors affect BTC based on its correlation to traditional assets.

Accessibility of BTC, through exchanges and ETFs, is crucial for its price movement.

Supply factors include the Bitcoin halving, lost and returned BTC.

The Bitcoin halving reduces new issuance of BTC, impacting its inflation rate.

Structural factors affecting BTC's price include portfolio rebalancing, management fees, and leverage.

Tether's commitment to buying BTC has created structural support for its price.

Bitcoin miners' selling behavior is influenced by BTC's price and interest rates.

The report suggests using the framework to predict BTC's price by monitoring the factors and their current impact.

Altcoins may experience different price movements due to regulatory changes and market structure.

Transcripts

whenever the crypto Market pumps or

dumps everyone asks the question why why

why why why the short answer is almost

always because BTC is pumping or dumping

where BTC goes the rest of crypto

follows this bags the question of what

causes BTC to pump or dump a recent

report from one of the best crypto

research firms has all of the answers

answers that can help you predict the

next big Market move that's why today

we're going to summarize this report and

tell you how you can use its findings to

get an edge in the crypto Market if you

hold crypto this is a video you cannot

afford to

miss the report will be summarizing

today is titled the forces moving

Bitcoin it was published by a crypto

research firm k33 and we'll leave a link

to the report in the description I'll

quickly note that to access the report

you need a pro account and coin Bureau

club members get a 50% discount anyhow

the report begins with a brief

introduction where the authors explain

that the purpose of this report is to

present a framework that determines what

causes BTC to pump or dump notably this

framework accounts for the fact that

some of these factors change and

interact with each other however the

authors's caution that it is

theoretically impossible to predict BTC

price action with 100% certainty and

that there could be other Frameworks

that are much more accurate even so the

authors believe that their framework

serves as a good starting point for

figuring out what makes btc's ticker

tick this ties into the second part of

the report which seeks to set a

foundation for the author's framework

the authors underscore the fact that BTC

is not only scarce but its Supply is

predetermined by bitcoin's protocol

rules this makes it different from other

assets which have less predictable

Supply Dynamics in the third part of the

report the author serve up the meat and

potatoes what determines btc's price the

short answer is multiple factors and

what's interesting is that the authors

look at these factors through the lens

of momentum specifically how they

increase upward or downward price action

they again highlight the fact

that these momentum factors can interact

with each other and they often take

turns being the primary drivers of btc's

price action the authors group these

momentum factors into three categories

demand factors Supply factors and

structural factors by the way if you're

enjoying the video so far be sure to

smash that like button to help others

find it and enjoy it and subscribe to

the channel and ping the notification

Bell so you don't miss the next one one

now when it comes to demand factors the

authors note that btc's in elastic

Supply makes the demand side of the

equation the most important within this

equation the authors identify six

factors sentiment news utility macro

cyclicality and

accessibility starting with sentiment

the authors further divide this factor

into three camps long-term BTC holders

Institute investors and Retail investors

the sentiment of long-term BTC holders

can be assessed using onchain analysis

for institutions it can be assessed by

analyzing the trading of BTC Futures on

trafi exchanges like the CME and for

retail investors it can be assessed by

looking at stuff like web traffic not

surprisingly long-term BTC holders tend

to sell when sentiment is high and buy

when sentiment is low also not

surprisingly retail investors tend to be

the biggest drivers of these sentiment

moves as they buy when the prices is are

high and sell when the prices are low on

that note the authors reveal that retail

trading activity on coinbase is still

very low and is at levels similar to the

beginning of the previous crypto ball

Market in late

2020 this suggests that retail investors

haven't really arrived yet and that the

current crypto ball Market is about to

enter its parabolic phase more about

when altcoins could pump using the link

in the description but back to the three

camps of the sentiment Factor remember

that institutional investors are in the

third camp now what's fascinating is

that btc's price tends to follow

whatever institutional investors are

doing on trfi exchanges like the CME in

other words they are ahead of the Curve

naturally the authors note that all

Traders should therefore pay close

attention to changes in things like open

interest for BTC Futures on the CME as

well as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and

outflows as they can potentially predict

how BDC will perform in the following

hours or days we interrupt this program

for an emergency crypto where the

forecast get ready for the Whirlwind of

savings we're seeing a high press sign

up bonus system forming in the North e

with some exchanges offering to $660,000

Lush in the South will'll be seeing some

heavy discounts on Hardware wallets so

watch out for those if you're going to

be out and about and then over in

central areas there's a high chance of

trading fee discounts which should be

setting in later on up to 60% off there

amazing for a more comprehensive

forecast visit the coin buau deals page

using the link in the description these

deals are red hot so make sure to take

all necessary

precautions that's all for the forecast

now back to our scheduled program now

the next factor in the demand bucket is

news the authors recount how BTC hit

local tops around major announcements

such as the launch of the Bitcoin

Futures ETF in October 2021 they

acknowledge that the approval of the

spot Bitcoin ETFs seems to be one of the

only exceptions on the flip side BTC has

historically hit local lows during Black

Swan events such as the pandemic flash

crash of March

2020 it's safe to say there are no

shortage of black swans out there these

days but so far none of them have bitten

BTC

touchwood now next we have utility the

authors admit that BTC doesn't have much

utility these days Beyond being a store

of value from our perspective though it

is possible that BTC could once again be

used for payments this time in

international trade some countries are

reportedly using BTC for this already

after utility we have macro the authors

accurately point out that btc's

susceptibility to macro factors

ultimately depends on its correlation to

Trad fight assets such as stocks given

that btc's correlation to stocks has

come down it's likely that BTC is less

affected by macro fact factors black

swans not withstanding to be clear this

doesn't mean that BTC isn't affected by

macro factors at all just that his price

is affected less this is something the

authors stress and they also stress that

understanding which macro factor is

moving btc's price can be very difficult

this is an understatement given all of

the geopolitical uncertainty floating

around these days anyways cyclicality is

the next subcategory of demand oddly

enough the authors don't provide much

detail here they just know that when the

crypto fomo kicks in BTC tends to

underperform from the rest of the market

as everyone sells BTC for alss and mem

coins when the crypto fedd is still

fueling sentiment everyone flocks to BTC

for safety causing it to outperform

other Assets Now some would argue that

the spot Bitcoin ETFs have affected this

cyclical Trend but let's not go there

now the final factor in the demand Camp

is accessibility which is arguably the

most important factor of them all after

all if investors can access BTC its

price won't pump regardless of the

demand this is something the authors

emphasize as well as they know there are

two ways to access BTC natively through

crypto exchanges and the like and by

proxy via ETFs and the like the authors

point out the elephant in the room and

that's that there's a lot of pent up

demand for BTC from institutional

investors who are waiting for the spot

Bitcoin ETFs now that these have been

approved these investors have started

buying and because spot Bitcoin ETFs are

backed by physical BTC this has resulted

in big BTC buys that move the market now

in the second part of the report the

authors unpack the supply side factors

affecting btc's price they start by

saying that BTC has a maximum supply of

21 million and that new BTC are mined

every 10 minutes of course they know the

number of newly mined BTC is cut in half

every four years obviously the Bitcoin

halving is the first supply side Factor

what's not so obvious however is the

second Factor and that's lost and

returned BTC the authors use the defunct

Mount gox crypto exchange as an

example 142,000 BTC will be returned to

creditors and will apparently be locked

for 10 years regarding the haling the

authors note that right now around 900

BTC are mined per day after the haling

expected on the 19th or 20th of April

only 450 50 BTC will be mined per day

just to put things into perspective the

authors know that btc's inflation rate

is currently akin to Golds specifically

around 2% after the haling btc's

inflation rate will be less than

1% the authors hint that continued

demand from the spot Bitcoin ETFs

combined with the reduction in newly

issued Supply could lead to substantial

gains for BTC they actually predict that

BTC will grind higher into the upcoming

hving that's simply because speculators

will likely try to position for this key

crypto Catalyst or rather what comes

after it the authors know that the

crypto ball Market tends to occur in the

year after the haling and that

speculators will try to price that in

historically this is translated to 14%

gains preing funly enough the authors

don't seem to say anything to def ative

about btc's price immediately after the

haling just that the supply reduction

eventually leads to higher prices our

research suggests that btc's price

immediately after the haling could be

neutral to negative based on the past

haling

Cycles this is presumably because this

speculative bubble deflates and BTC

reverts to the mean in any case

regarding lost and return BTC the

authors remind the reader that Bitcoin

Creator Satoshi Nakamoto is believed to

hold 1 million BTC which could

theoretically be sold at a moment's

notice they admit that this is very

unlikely but the BTC still has other

much more probable Supply shock risks

besides of the return of BTC from Mount

GA the US government still holds around

200,000 BTC it sees from the silkroad

dark knet Marketplace and the like the

authors note that around 111,000 of this

BTC is expected to be sold and they

remind the reader that the BTC sales

that were planned last year never

happened probably nothing anyways the

authors also touch on the fact that

96,000 BTC from the 2016 bit finex hack

are expected to be returned to the

exchange and that the exchange will use

80% of this BTC to buy back and burn its

Leo token so far though only small

fraction of hacked funds have been

returned to bitfinex which is tether's

sister company also probably

nothing anyhow in the third part of the

report the authors tackle the third

family of factors affecting btc's price

which should recall are structural

factors they identify seven portfolio

rebalancing management fees treasury

strategies leverage carry trades

cyclicality and Bitcoin miners

beginning with the portfolio rebalancing

the authors explained that as BDC starts

to get introduced to institutional

portfolios it will be bought when it

underperforms and sold when it

outperforms per the rebalancing strategy

that many institutions use this could

limit btc's volatility but also increase

its correlation to tradire assets some

would say that this is happening already

regardless the next factor is m

management fees the authors point to

another elephant in the room and that's

grayscales spot Bitcoin ETF for context

it has the largest management fees of

any ETF by a wide margin these

management fees are likely contributing

to the outflows from its ETF the thing

is that this isn't unique to grayscale

spot Bitcoin ETF at least not in the way

that you think you see to pay these

management fees the asset managers

periodically sell some of the ETF shares

which in Practical terms means selling

small amounts of BTC for reference the

authors use grayscale's gbtc trust which

was selling 32 BTC per day as part of

its management fees thankfully the fact

that everyone is switching to using

lowcost ETFs means that the amount of

BTC being sold as management fees each

day will decline to around 6.5 BTC per

day in total when it comes to cyc it

meanwhile in this case the authors focus

on taxation they know that after a big

year investors may have large capital

gain bills that they need to pay off and

imply that this can result in sell

pressure in the short term come to think

of it it's possible this is why crypto

has been selling off lately whatever the

case the next factor is treasury

strategies the authors rightfully point

out that tether has been one of the

biggest contribut to this factor and it

committed to purchasing BTC using 15% of

its net profits last May since that time

tether has bought tens of thousands of

BTC creating a sort of structural

support for its price the authors note

that tether's BTC buys also make it a

counter cycal Force because the more the

interest rates rise the more BTC that

tether can buy for those unfamiliar BTC

typically declines when interest rates

rise the catch is that this assumes that

usdt Supply doesn't shrink and that it

likely would if Rising rates would bring

down the rest of the market most usdt

demand comes from Trading speaking of

trading Leverage is another crucial

structural Factor affecting btc's price

the authors reveal that retail investors

are the main parties using leverage to

go long or short whereas more

experienced parti ipants like market

makers often take the other side of the

trade they also repeat something that

regular coin Bureau viewers should know

and that's the liquidations of Leverage

Longs cause BTC to fall lower than

expected whereas short squeezes cause

BTC to Rally higher than expected it's

important to note that leverage plays a

role primarily in short-term moves now

in terms of carry trades the authors

explain that this involves experence

Eren Market participants taking

advantage of the discrepancies between

funding rates for different trading

instruments in plain English they will

buy or sell BTC along with longing or

short in the current direction of the

market when there's a discrepancy

between spot and Futures

prices finally we have Bitcoin miners

who often have to sell most of their BTC

to fund their operations the only two

exceptions are when btc's price is

rising a lot like it is now and when

interest rates are close to zero in the

case of the former miners don't have to

sell as much BTC as in the case of the

latter as they can take on debt instead

of selling BTC the caveat is that miners

may be forced into selling more BTC

after the haling if its price is lower

something the authors stop short of

saying history has also shown that when

miners take on lots of debt they run the

risk of being forced to sell BTC to pay

back these debts in the future

particularly when interest rates are

rising now in the fourth and final part

of the report the authors provide a few

examples of how you can use their

framework to trade BTC they provide this

handy infographic which shows you how

all of the factors in the framework have

affected btc's price over the last four

years by their estimation they then

provide a breakdown of how these factors

affected btc's price each quarter in

2020 2021 2022 2023 and 2024 so far for

the purpose of this video we'll stick to

the 2024 analysis as it's the most

relevant so far only one quarter has

passed and the only negative factor

seems to be leverage as you might have

guessed the authors note that retail

investors are to blame and that a good

chunk of The Upside and downside

volatility that we've seen since the

start of the year is because of their

Reckless leverag trades fortunately all

of the other factors appear to be

positive sa for macro which is not noted

as a negative for some reason what's

even more fortunate is that the authors

forecast that most of the factors in

their framework will be positive in the

remaining quarters the only exceptions

are leverage which the author Au know as

being an everpresent short-term hurdle

and also uncertainty around macro

factors which I just noted unfortunately

the positive factors may not be as

positive for altcoins that's because the

market structure in the altcoin market

Has Changed For example us and UK users

can no longer access the offshore

exchanges where the most promising

altcoins are traded and users in the EU

will experience stable coin restrictions

starting in July this brings me to the

big question and that's how you can use

the findings of this report to get an

edge in the crypto Market the answer is

to be aware of each factor and how it's

affecting btc's price and in turn being

aware of how btc's price tends to affect

the rest of the crypto Market to recap

there are three categories of factors

demand factors Supply factors and

structural factors the demand factors

are sentiment news utility macro

cyclicality and accessibility the supply

factors are in the haling and loss and

found coins structural factors are

portfolio rebalancing management fees

treasury strategies leverage carry

trades cyclicality and miners as the

authors noted throughout this report

btc's short-term price action is the

most affected by factors where retail

investors play a big role this means

mainly sentiment news and leverage the

other factors seem to pain more to btc's

longer term price action and to

institutional investors there is one

important exception though and that's

macro if there's some big macro factor

that Spooks institutional investors this

can likewise have an immediate effect on

btc's price action the recent spike in

oil prices is the perfect example it

caused crypto and stocks to slump with

crypto being dragged lower because of

the retail sentiment and leverage

logically then if you're looking to get

an edge in the crypto Market you need to

focus on retail sentiment think about

how certain headlines are likely to

affect retail sentiment and how prices

could be impacted by leverage in the

case of altcoins you need to factor in

accessibility for the reasons that I

mentioned earlier

assessing retail sentiment can be done

using various sentiment indicators

though the best one of all probably is

what's being said on crypto Twitter the

same thing is true for assessing how

retail investors are reacting to certain

headlines as for the leverage this can

be Tried by looking at liquidation heat

Maps these show you roughly where lots

of Longs could be liquidated and where

shorts could be squeezed note that we'll

leave a link to all of these resources

in the

description now assessing accessibility

for altcoins is straightforward it looks

like during this cycle most of the

altcoin speculation will take place on

more regulated exchanges such as

coinbase that said there's also been

lots of retail activity on dexes and

it's possible that regulation of sexes

will result in more Dex usage so don't

forget about how much macro factors

could impact the crypto Market keeping

track of these is admittedly more

difficult as it requires quite a bit of

expertise one shortcut you can use is to

listen to podcasts featuring macro

experts just make sure you're getting a

wide range of opinions lastly factoring

the extra volatility that altcoins

experience relative to BTC as a rule of

themb altcoins are between 50 and 200%

more volatile than BTC that means if BTC

pumps most altcoins will eventually go

up by 50% to 2x more and the same is

true if it dumps altcoins tend to

perform the best when BTC is trading

sideways which we haven't really seen

yet by keeping track of sentiment

current and potential future headlines

leverage accessibility and macro you

should be able to get an edge in the

crypto Market that most crypto investors

and Traders don't have now this doesn't

necessarily mean that you'll become a

millionaire but with enough practice you

might learn enough to lose less

money and that's all for today's video

if you learn something new Smash that

like button to let us know if you want

to keep learning subscribe to the

channel and ping that notification Bell

if you want to help others learn about

what moves btc's price be sure to share

this video with them and as always thank

you so much for watching and I'll see

you in the next one until then crypto

friends this is Jessica over and

out