Google CEO SHOCKS Everyone " We MUST Prepare NOW!" NEW AI Prediction

TheAIGRID
8 Mar 202423:05

Summary

TLDR这段视频讨论了人工智能(AI)带来的社会和经济变革。谷歌AI团队的CEO提到,AI的发展速度和规模可能会让人们措手不及。视频提出了“后劳动经济学”的概念,即在AI主导的劳动力市场中,人类劳动的价值将发生根本变化。随着AI在各个领域的应用,从医疗到教育,再到娱乐,人们担心失业和社会流动性的丧失。视频还探讨了普遍基本收入(UBI)的可能性,以及如何通过征税和AI公司的盈利来资助这一制度。同时,也强调了AI带来的积极影响,如医疗进步和个性化教育。视频鼓励观众保持乐观,积极寻找未来的机会。

Takeaways

  • 🤖 谷歌AI团队CEO提到,即将到来的变化规模之大,许多人尚未准备好。
  • 💊 AI正在设计药物和治疗严重疾病的方案,未来几年内可能会实现。
  • 💰 能源可能变得免费或廉价,货币的本质可能会发生变化。
  • 🚀 我们应该现在就开始准备,而不是等到AGI(人工通用智能)前夕。
  • 📉 许多公司正在用AI取代工作岗位,这一趋势可能会加剧。
  • 🌐 技术的进步意味着它变得更易用、更高效,也更经济实惠。
  • 🛠️ 资本主义竞争下,使用AI的公司将比不使用的公司更有生产力。
  • 💼 社会尚未准备好迎接AI带来的变化,需要考虑后劳动经济学的概念。
  • 💰 普遍基本收入(UBI)可能是应对AI导致失业的必要措施。
  • 🧠 AI的发展可能会影响人类的心理健康和生活意义。
  • 🌟 尽管AI带来了挑战,但也有积极的一面,如医疗和教育的改善。

Q & A

  • 谷歌AI团队的CEO提到了哪些关于未来变化的惊人预测?

    -谷歌AI团队的CEO提到,人工智能将设计药物和治疗严重疾病的疗法,能源将变得免费或廉价,货币的本质也将发生变化。他强调我们现在就应该为这些变化做准备,而不是等到人工通用智能(AGI)即将到来之际。

  • 什么是后劳动经济学?

    -后劳动经济学是指在AGI成为主导力量,完成大部分工作和智能活动后,社会和经济将如何变化。在这种经济体系中,人类劳动不再是价值创造的主要来源。

  • 为什么说我们现在的社会还没有准备好迎接AGI带来的变化?

    -因为AGI的到来将导致大规模的就业流失,社会结构和经济模式将发生根本性变化。目前,我们还没有足够的准备和应对策略来适应这种变化,包括如何重新定义工作、价值和生活的意义。

  • 什么是普遍基本收入(Universal Basic Income, UBI)?

    -普遍基本收入是政府定期向每个成年公民提供一定数额的金钱,通常不附带与财富或就业相关的条件。其目的是减少贫困,帮助个人满足基本生活需求。

  • UBI的实施有哪些潜在的好处?

    -UBI的实施可以减少贫困,提高人们的身心健康,增加全职就业率,并改善人们的整体幸福感。在芬兰的实验中,接受基本收入的人在心理健康和生活满意度方面有了显著提升。

  • 如何为UBI提供资金?

    -一种提议是通过向高估值公司征税,以及对私人持有土地征税,将这些税收用于为所有公民提供年度分配。这样,公民可以逐渐享受到经济自主带来的自由、权力和机会。

  • 什么是“意外收益条款”(windfall clause)?

    -“意外收益条款”是一种自愿但具有约束力的承诺,AI公司可以承诺将超过一定阈值的利润的一部分捐赠给慈善实体。这个阈值可以基于公司利润占世界总产值的比例来设定。

  • AI的发展将如何影响社会流动性?

    -AI的发展可能会导致社会流动性的消失。如果AI在所有领域都比人类做得更好,那么传统的通过教育和工作来提升社会地位的途径将不再有效,这可能会对人们的心理造成重大影响。

  • 在AI主导的未来,哪些行业可能会继续存在?

    -在AI主导的未来,那些需要人类情感、直觉和创造力的行业可能会继续存在,例如医疗保健、教育、心理咨询、法律、政治和社会工作等。

  • AI的发展将如何影响货币和资产的价值?

    -AI的发展可能会导致货币和资产价值的根本变化。随着生产力的提高,传统的资本主义模式可能会发生变化,同时数字资产的代币化可能会成为新的经济模式。

Outlines

00:00

🤖 AI革命与社会变革

谷歌AI团队CEO的发言揭示了即将到来的巨大变革,这可能导致人们需要重新思考未来的工作和社会结构。视频中提到,AI将在药物设计、疾病治疗、能源获取等方面取得突破,这将深刻改变经济和社会。作者强调,我们应该现在就开始准备,而不是等到AGI(通用人工智能)到来前夕。

05:00

💰 后劳动经济学与普遍基本收入

视频探讨了后劳动经济学的概念,即在AGI主导工作和智能的未来社会中,经济将如何运作。作者提到,随着AI技术的发展,许多工作岗位将被取代,这可能导致社会需要考虑实施普遍基本收入(UBI)来保障人们的生活。视频中还提到了一些关于UBI的实验和研究,以及硅谷领袖对于AI未来可能带来的财富分配的看法。

10:01

📈 赢者通吃的经济与税收

视频讨论了AI公司可能通过税收和利润捐赠来支持UBI的可能性。提出了“意外收益条款”(winfall clause)的概念,即AI公司自愿承诺将其超过一定阈值的利润的一部分捐赠给慈善实体。这种机制旨在解决AI驱动的经济增长带来的潜在问题,如失业和不平等。

15:01

🌟 个人价值与社会意义的丧失

作者探讨了在AI主导的未来,个人可能会面临的价值和意义的丧失。随着AI在各个领域超越人类,人们可能会失去工作和社会地位,这可能导致心理上的压力和身份认同的危机。视频强调了社会需要为这种转变做好准备,并考虑如何在AI时代保持人类的尊严和价值。

20:02

🚀 未来的机遇与挑战

视频最后讨论了AI带来的机遇和挑战。尽管AI可能会改变工作和经济,但作者保持乐观态度,认为未来会有新的机遇出现。他提到,尽管AI可能会取代某些工作,但仍有行业需要人类的参与,如医疗、教育和娱乐。作者鼓励观众保持更新,寻找未来的机会,并为即将到来的变化做好准备。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡人工智能

人工智能(AI)是指由人制造出来的系统所表现出来的智能行为。在视频中,AI被提及为能够设计药物、治疗疾病、替代人类工作等。AI的发展速度和潜力是视频讨论的核心,尤其是在即将到来的AGI(通用人工智能)时代。

💡通用人工智能

通用人工智能(AGI)指的是具有广泛认知能力的人工智能,能够在多个领域执行任何智能任务。视频中提到AGI的到来可能会引发社会和经济的巨大变革,包括工作性质的改变和可能的失业问题。

💡后劳动经济学

后劳动经济学是指在AI成为主要劳动力和智能来源的社会和经济体系。视频中提到,随着AI技术的发展,我们可能会进入一个以AI为主导的新时代,这将改变传统的劳动和经济模式。

💡普遍基本收入

普遍基本收入(UBI)是一种社会保障制度,政府定期向所有成年公民提供一定数额的金钱,无需考虑财富或就业状况。视频中讨论了UBI作为应对AI导致失业问题的一种可能解决方案。

💡社会流动性

社会流动性指的是个人或家庭在社会经济地位上的上升或下降。视频中提到,随着AI的发展,传统的社会流动性可能会消失,因为AI可能会取代大部分工作,使得人们难以通过传统途径提升自己的社会地位。

💡意义丧失

意义丧失是指个体在面对AI可能取代人类工作的情况下,感到自己的存在和努力失去了价值。视频中提到,随着AI在各个领域的进步,人们可能会对自己的工作和生活目标产生怀疑。

💡迭代部署

迭代部署是一种逐步实施新技术或系统的方法,以确保社会和经济能够适应这些变化。视频中提到,为了确保社会能够平稳过渡到AI主导的时代,可能需要采取迭代部署的方式来引入AI技术。

💡意外之财条款

意外之财条款(Windfall Clause)是一种提议,要求AI公司将其超额利润的一部分捐赠给慈善实体。视频中提到,这种方式可以作为资助UBI的一种可能来源,同时也可以缓解AI发展带来的经济不平等。

💡资产代币化

资产代币化是一种将资产所有权或权利转化为数字代币并存储在区块链上的过程。视频中提到,随着AI和区块链技术的发展,资产代币化可能会改变未来的经济体系,包括土地所有权和货币价值。

💡经济转型

经济转型指的是经济体系、结构或模式的根本变化。视频中讨论了AI发展可能导致的经济转型,包括工作性质的变化、收入分配的调整以及可能的UBI实施。

Highlights

Google AI团队的CEO提到即将到来的变化规模之大,许多人尚未意识到。

AI正在设计药物和治疗严重疾病的方案,我们距离这一目标只有几年时间。

能源可能变得免费或廉价,这将改变金钱的本质。

我们应该现在就开始准备,而不是等到AGI(人工通用智能)来临前夕。

视频将深入探讨“后劳动经济学”这一概念。

社会和经济目前基于人类劳动,但在AGI主导的后劳动社会中,情况将大不相同。

AI正在取代人类的工作,IBM、Clana和Joingo等公司已经开始用AI替代员工。

随着技术的进步,AI将变得更加高效和经济,这将导致更多公司采用AI。

社会尚未准备好迎接这些变化,需要考虑如何应对。

普遍基本收入(UBI)的概念被提出,以应对未来可能的大规模失业。

UBI的实验表明,它能够改善人们的心理健康和就业状况。

Sam Altman认为AI可能在10年内产生足够的财富,为每个成年人提供每年13,500美元的收入。

Altman强调AI带来的社会经济变化的规模和速度,远超大多数人的预期。

提出了一种可能的UBI资金来源:对高估值公司征税。

提出了“意外收益条款”,即AI公司自愿捐赠部分超额利润给慈善实体。

AI的发展可能导致人们失去工作和社会上升流动性,以及生活的意义。

尽管AI将带来巨大的变化,但也有积极的一面,如医疗和教育的改善。

AI可能不会完全取代所有行业,如医疗保健、教育和个人服务等领域仍将需要人类。

社会需要为AI带来的经济变化做好准备,确保平稳过渡到新的经济体系。

视频鼓励观众保持乐观,寻找未来的机会,并关注AI发展的最新动态。

Transcripts

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so the CEO of Google's AI team just said

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something that actually did shock me and

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it shocked me so much that I literally

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had to take around two days off from

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uploading because I think the Monumental

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scale of change coming is one that most

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people haven't grappled with yet so

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let's take a look at what he said and

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why this is so shocking and then I'll

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dive deeper into the video I actually

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don't think they fully understand the

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Monumental of what is being built AI

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designed drugs and cures for really

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terrible diseases we're only just a few

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years away from that the energy becomes

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free or cheap right and then suddenly

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the nature of of of money even changes

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we don't want to have to wait till the

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eve before AGI happens and go you know

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what maybe we should have thought about

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this a bit harder okay no we should be

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preparing for that now you can see there

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it was a pretty fascinating statement he

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said we should be preparing now and we

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shouldn't wait until the eve of AGI to

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get things done and it was a really

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really interesting statement because the

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level of change coming is one that is

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actually shocking like actually shocking

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and this video I'm going to be raising

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several points and concerns which are

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things that I think you all should be

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thinking about and stuff that you should

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know so essentially this video is going

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to be taking a deep dive into the term

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post labor economics and to my knowledge

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the only person that I've seen really

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cover this on YouTube is David chapiro

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which is someone else that does AI

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videos but I think it's a rather

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interesting debate SLC concept because

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it is something that we will be living

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in Fairly fairly soon and essentially

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post labor economics is just the fact

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that right now society and the economy

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is you know going based on human labor

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but what happens in the post AGI society

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when AGI is the dominant force that does

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the majority of the work and the

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majority of the intelligence uh we move

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to post labor economics which is just

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after that so it's after the labor um

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we're on a very very different time

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scale so the thing is is that this is

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happening okay this is something that if

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you aren't paying attention you aren't

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going to realize that this is coming now

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these are just the first three links I

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clicked on a website that host hosts it

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actually just hosts like every single um

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you know instance of AI being replacing

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someone's job and it's essentially a

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website that shows you how quickly this

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technology is going to be impacting the

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world and you know I've looked at

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several different studies and we're just

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going to take a look at these but you

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can see IBM to pause hiring in a plan to

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replace 7,800 jobs with AI Bloomberg

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reports you know clana says it's going

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to lay off you know 700 people after the

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AI can do the work of 700 agents joingo

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has cut about 10% of its contractors as

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part of a shift towards heavier Reliance

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on artificial intelligence um and these

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are just recently okay and this is going

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to get worse because the thing is

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technology gets better it means it

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becomes more usable it becomes more

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efficient and it also becomes cheaper to

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use which means it becomes more

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economically viable for these companies

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to use and the point I'm trying to make

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here guys is that this is something that

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is coming what we are seeing now is just

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the first instances of these companies

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coming around there are some companies

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that you know likely just are stuck in

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their own ways probably don't want to

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use the technology and eventually they

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will come around because what happens

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with time is that the companies that use

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AI compared to the companies that don't

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use AI will be far more productive

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probably two to three times more

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productive and over time those companies

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are just going to lose because it's

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capitalism it's competition and if you

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don't evolve you will die and you know

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the more efficient companies over the

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long term do win so it is something that

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is going to happen and it's something

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that is inevitable which means okay we

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have to talk about what Society is going

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to be like because like he said okay

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this is something that people are not

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prepared for and Society is just simply

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not prepared for now essentially one

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thing that continually is continually

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discussed and something that I do see

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quite a lot discussed is of course the

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concept of universal basic income now

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Universal basic income proposes that the

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government give every adult citizen a

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set amount of money on a regular basis

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typically without conditions related to

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wealth or employment and the aims of

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such a system includes reducing poverty

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and helping individuals meet basic needs

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now this is something that you know it's

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been done before in certain experiments

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but many people are stating that if we

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move to a post labor society and we need

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you know we're in post labor economics

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or whatever um Universal basic income is

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is going to be something that is

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necessary because many humans won't be

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able to provide wealth for themselves

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due to the loss of I guess you could say

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upward social mobility and due to the

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loss of value because not only if robots

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are a thing you know are people going to

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lose their physical standing in terms of

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what they're able to do with their

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bodies in terms of efficiency but you

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know the intelligence that many people

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do have is quickly being eroded as AI

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agents and all of these you know smart

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smart AI systems become more and more

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efficient than some people that we do

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know so this is likely going to be

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something that does affect everyone and

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it is going to be fascinating on how

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this technology truly will evolve

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because it's something that is just

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really really vast on the Spectrum like

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many people would think that you know AI

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artists were going to be affected L AI

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artists were affected first you know

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people would think that okay AI is just

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going to be affecting you know some of

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the really terrible automatable jobs

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we're seeing that AI is affecting a lot

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of the white color work so it's

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something that you know this Singularity

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that we're you know coming across is

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something that we really don't know and

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cannot predict effectively and you know

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if you were to go back like I said you'd

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be thinking ah you know artists are

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going to be lost you know pick a Korean

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art that's going to be good but we've

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seen that you know those predictions

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that we think are so right can often be

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so wrong now there have been some

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studies on universal basic income and I

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think these studies are really important

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because they do highlight the effects of

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universal basic income for example you

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can see that full-time employment among

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recipients Rose and their physical

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health and emotional health also

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improved so basically if you didn't know

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for most people their main source of you

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know mental health issues is a worry and

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I remember reading a study quite a while

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back that you know people who have

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property that pay for their like

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lifestyle people essentially who have

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rental income have like 83% less

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depression 83% less stress it all

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something insane but the point is is

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that you know um having a universal

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basic income improves people's mental

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health by a significant amount and um

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there was some also you know statistics

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here that I think are really really

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important as well and you can see that

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there was an experiment in Finland and

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it said in the finnished experiment

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people on the basic income reported a

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large and statistically significant

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improvements in key drivers of

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well-being the importance of impact of

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for well-being Factor so you can see

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mental health that's where it had the

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most impact and of course the other ones

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here like employment and trust it didn't

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really matter so the point is is that

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this is something that will likely need

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to be done okay because it is something

play06:12

that is going to happen regardless okay

play06:13

job losses are going to happen and the

play06:15

problem with AI is that it's not like

play06:17

it's a dynamic thing where you know jobs

play06:19

are being you know new jobs are spurring

play06:21

up but I think that with AI even if AI a

play06:24

AI is something that will like take a

play06:25

100 jobs and then replace and then maybe

play06:27

20 jobs come up do you know what I mean

play06:29

it's not a onetoone scenario like before

play06:31

when we had the Industrial Revolution

play06:33

this is something that is fundamentally

play06:34

a labor replacing tool as said by um you

play06:37

know some other former Google boss as

play06:39

well so um essentially you can see right

play06:41

here as well that um you might be

play06:43

thinking okay so there's going to be a

play06:44

Ubi but how Earth we pay with the Ubi

play06:46

because it is something that we need to

play06:47

talk about so this is an article about

play06:49

Sam Alman this is an article from

play06:51

Business Insider it's rather important

play06:53

it states that Silicon Valley leaders

play06:55

think AI will one day fund free cash

play06:57

handouts but experts aren't convinced so

play06:59

um essentially it was covering Sam

play07:01

alman's blog post where he stated that

play07:03

you know in a little as 10 years AI

play07:05

could generate enough wealth to pay

play07:06

every adult in the United States

play07:09

$13,500 a year open AI CEO Sam Alman

play07:12

said in a

play07:13

2,933 word piece called Mo's law for

play07:16

everything but critics are concerned

play07:18

that Altman's views could cause more

play07:19

harm than good and that he's misleading

play07:21

the public on where AI is headed now you

play07:23

can dive a little bit more into this

play07:24

article you can see that one of the

play07:26

crazy things about this article was what

play07:28

Sam Alman actually said

play07:29

um you can see that he actually said

play07:31

that artificial intelligence companies

play07:33

could become so powerful and Wealthy

play07:34

that they're able to provide a universal

play07:35

basic income to every man woman and

play07:37

child on Earth okay he said that's how

play07:39

some in the AI Community have

play07:40

interpreted the lengthy blog post and as

play07:42

last 10 years y y y but the crazy

play07:45

statement from this was that he said my

play07:47

work at open AI reminds me every day

play07:49

about the magnitude of the socioeconomic

play07:51

change that is coming sooner than most

play07:54

people believe you got that right guys

play07:56

magnitude of socioeconomic change that

play07:58

is com coming sooner than most people

play08:00

believe so that is something you know

play08:02

pretty insane and he also said here but

play08:03

I didn't highlight this he says software

play08:04

that can think and learn will do more

play08:06

and more of the work that people do

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right now and this is something that he

play08:09

said quite some time ago um and we can

play08:12

see that we've evolved uh you know we've

play08:14

upgraded you know quite a lot since then

play08:16

so you can imagine what the next 10

play08:17

years are going to look like if we

play08:19

factor in exponential change now of

play08:20

course there is going to be uh you know

play08:22

something that you know Sam Alman did

play08:24

talk about which is of course iterative

play08:26

deployment because the world isn't

play08:27

essentially ready Sam Alman of course

play08:29

and I've brought this up previous times

play08:30

but this is just to show you guys that

play08:31

like you know whilst they probably do

play08:33

have you know future systems like gb5

play08:34

and whatever and they're not going to be

play08:36

deploying them anytime soon um in fact

play08:38

they might deploy gbt 5 soon but the

play08:39

point is that they're not going to

play08:40

deploy every system as they get them

play08:42

because the world literally isn't ready

play08:44

and he said it's the only safe path and

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the only way for people society and

play08:47

institutions to have time to update and

play08:50

internalize what this all means and I

play08:52

believe that that's very true I've

play08:53

covered this in another video before I'm

play08:54

not going to cover all of that stuff

play08:55

again but the point is is that look okay

play08:58

if Ubi is something that is going to be

play09:00

needed which is you know Universal basic

play09:02

income something that people talked

play09:03

about quite a bit before um how is that

play09:05

going to be funded so there was this

play09:07

okay which is essentially taxing the

play09:08

capital and it says one of the main

play09:10

thrusts of the essay is to call a tax

play09:12

Capital this is from a different um this

play09:14

is from a different article and it says

play09:15

that's where the Ubi money would come

play09:16

from we could do something called the

play09:18

American Equity Fund the American Equity

play09:20

Fund would be capitalized by taxing

play09:21

companies above certain valuations 2.5

play09:24

of their market value each year payable

play09:26

in shares transferred to the fund and by

play09:28

taxing 2.5 % the value of all privately

play09:30

held land payable in dollars he said all

play09:33

citizens over 18 would be getting an

play09:35

annual distribution and basically what

play09:36

he's saying is that you know every

play09:38

citizen would therefore increasingly

play09:40

partake of the freedoms powers

play09:41

autonomies and opportunities that comes

play09:43

with economic self-determination povert

play09:46

poverty would be greatly reduced and

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many people would have a shot at the

play09:49

life they want the point here is that

play09:51

essentially because all of these AI

play09:53

companies are going to be making

play09:55

ridiculous profits what some people are

play09:57

suggesting well you know there was a

play09:58

paper paper and I've covered this once I

play10:00

think before but essentially this paper

play10:02

it covers I'm going to show you guys

play10:04

right here this paper called the winfall

play10:05

Clause essentially I think is probably

play10:06

one of the best scenarios but I don't

play10:08

know how on Earth we're going to get

play10:09

people to agree to this but um

play10:11

essentially it says here okay so if the

play10:13

third is that if companies themselves

play10:14

decide to donate a large share of their

play10:15

profits this was the key proposal of a

play10:17

landmark 2020 paper called the winful

play10:20

Clause released by the center for

play10:21

governance of AI in Oxford the six

play10:23

authors notably include member a number

play10:25

of figures who are senior government

play10:26

officials at leading labs and the idea

play10:28

is simple the Clause is a voluntary but

play10:30

binding commitment that AI firms could

play10:32

make to donate a set percentage of their

play10:34

profits in excess of a certain threshold

play10:37

to a charitable entity and they suggest

play10:39

that the thresholds be based on profits

play10:41

as a share of the world's gross W

play10:42

products or essentially the world's

play10:44

entire economic app the point is that if

play10:45

these companies are going to be making

play10:47

so much money okay the point is is that

play10:49

like if everyone's going to be

play10:50

unemployed and these companies are able

play10:51

to like be so efficient when you only

play10:53

three people to do the work of like

play10:54

300,000 they're going to say like look

play10:56

okay if you're making that much money

play10:57

off your software whatever um there's

play10:59

going to be a certain tax and because of

play11:00

you know your companies making like

play11:01

let's say making like 1010 billion in

play11:03

profit every single quarter that is

play11:05

going to be tax because you know of AI

play11:06

and then that taxed money is going to

play11:08

get redistributed to those in those

play11:10

positions and essentially you can see

play11:11

right here properly enacted the windfall

play11:13

Clause could address several potential

play11:15

problems with AI driven economic growth

play11:17

the distribution of profits could

play11:18

compensate those rendered thoughtlessly

play11:20

unemployed due to advances in technology

play11:23

and mitigate potential increases in

play11:24

equality and smooth the economic

play11:26

transition for the most runnable

play11:28

provides a Labs with a credible tangible

play11:30

mechanisms to demonstrate their

play11:31

commitment to pursuing Advanced AI for

play11:33

the common Global good and finally it

play11:35

provides a concrete suggestion that may

play11:37

stimulate other proposals and

play11:39

discussions about how best to mitigate

play11:41

AI driven disruption Point here being I

play11:43

think this is something that is likely

play11:45

to happen but uh you know with policies

play11:47

and with the law and how slow everything

play11:48

is with all the agreements and just you

play11:50

know the kind of system is I mean it's

play11:51

really hard to get people to agree on

play11:53

anything so I have no idea how this is

play11:55

going to work but the point is is that

play11:56

we are moving into an area where you

play11:58

know companies are going to get more and

play12:00

more efficient they're going to get more

play12:01

and more streamlined and the problem is

play12:03

is that think about like this okay if

play12:04

you're a normal person okay you have a

play12:05

normal job normal career um you know you

play12:07

might not lose your job but for those of

play12:09

you that are going to be in the basket

play12:10

that do okay getting rehired especially

play12:12

if you're like 40 or something like that

play12:14

you know retraining and all that stuff

play12:15

is going to be pretty pretty hard you're

play12:16

going to be in a pretty precarious

play12:18

situation the point is is that where do

play12:20

those people in society go and

play12:22

essentially the winfall Clause is there

play12:24

for that and I think it's going to be

play12:25

important because in the future I'm not

play12:27

sure how we're going to deal with an ex

play12:29

part of the population that just doesn't

play12:30

have work because there are just simply

play12:32

not enough jobs to go around or you know

play12:34

maybe due to certain socioeconomic

play12:36

factors they're unable to so another

play12:38

thing that people do need to think about

play12:39

as well is the loss of meaning um and

play12:42

that was something that was covered in

play12:43

another video and essentially this post

play12:46

from here from Reddit is is a very very

play12:48

important one and it says the everfield

play12:50

why am I doing this when this will be OB

play12:52

obsolete when AI hits says I don't think

play12:54

people realize when AGI hits not only

play12:56

will this Usher into a jobless Society

play12:58

but also the mere concept of being

play13:00

useful to another human will end now

play13:02

this post is a little bit more on the

play13:03

Doomer side but it does have a good

play13:05

point it says the concept is so integral

play13:08

to Human Society now that if you're

play13:09

bored with your job and you want another

play13:11

venture most of your options have

play13:12

something to do with that concept

play13:14

somehow learn a new language what's the

play13:16

point if we have perfect translators

play13:17

write a novel what's the point if

play13:18

nobody's going to read it since they can

play13:20

get better ones by machines learn a

play13:22

about a new scientific field what's the

play13:23

point if no one's going to ask you about

play13:25

it ever felt that what's the point will

play13:27

you be obsolete with anything that will

play13:29

do now this is a good point and of

play13:30

course there are caveats to this

play13:31

argument but the point is is that if

play13:34

machines are absolutely better than

play13:35

humans at absolutely everything okay

play13:37

some people are going to be asking what

play13:39

is your point now you could say that

play13:40

look okay people will always find things

play13:42

to do jobs don't need to exist for

play13:44

people to achieve things but you know

play13:45

people play sports they play competitive

play13:47

games they play chess they s puzzles um

play13:49

you know but I do think that it is an

play13:51

important issue because a lot of people

play13:53

are thinking what is the point of me

play13:54

doing this like like I've seen a lot of

play13:56

people recently you know who are coding

play13:57

and say like look we you know they're

play13:59

working on some crazy coding systems

play14:00

there was a recent breakthrough in some

play14:02

you know coding a startup people are

play14:03

investing hundreds of millions of

play14:04

dollars into it and some people like

play14:06

look I'm working on something I'm coding

play14:07

on something and like what is the even

play14:08

Point like in the back of their head

play14:10

they are thinking what is the point if I

play14:11

know this is going to be Obsolete and

play14:13

essentially there's this loss of purpose

play14:15

that many humans are going to have to

play14:16

deal with when their entire field

play14:18

becomes Obsolete and I think that is

play14:19

something that we also need to deal with

play14:20

as well because like you know de Mr sbit

play14:23

said um Society literally isn't ready so

play14:26

I do hope the transition is smooth like

play14:28

I said before or you know with Sam Alman

play14:29

stating that you know he's going to do

play14:31

iterative deployment with the systems it

play14:33

does make sense but I think the loss of

play14:36

meaning is also something that people

play14:37

will have to Grapple with and it

play14:39

definitely was something that I did

play14:40

grapple with for a couple of days when

play14:42

you know reality did set in because you

play14:44

know a lot of people lose their identity

play14:47

because essentially think about it this

play14:48

if you've always been an intellectual

play14:50

and then machines are suddenly smarter

play14:51

that you and absolutely everything you

play14:52

do you know what are you anymore that's

play14:55

you know a real uh I guess you could say

play14:57

loss of identity because you know being

play14:59

smart is no longer who you are because

play15:00

if machines are so much smarter than you

play15:02

you know it's pretty hard like if you're

play15:03

a writer and then all of a sudden you

play15:05

know every writing job that you had

play15:06

previously is just taken by chat GPT

play15:08

it's going to be a crushing you know

play15:10

self of sense worth because something

play15:12

exists now that can completely do what

play15:14

you do way quicker way easier uh and way

play15:16

cheaper so that is something that people

play15:17

will have to Grapple with now one of the

play15:19

things I think most people don't realize

play15:21

and I think even some people in the

play15:22

comments is that you know that we we're

play15:24

moving at a rate that like once AGI is

play15:27

here that's when the real trouble will

play15:29

set in and I think that most people

play15:30

aren't ready for this scenario and the

play15:32

video isn't about generative AI tools

play15:34

whilst those are crazy uh this post here

play15:37

kind of does talk about it and AGI is

play15:39

the point at which things do change that

play15:41

that that's the point like where the

play15:42

singularity kind of does happen where

play15:45

you know we jump off into that Cliff of

play15:46

the unknown unknown and things do become

play15:48

crazy and I don't think AI is that far

play15:50

away so it's actually pretty concerning

play15:52

to think about because someone also

play15:54

commented about this and this was a

play15:56

really really interesting thing because

play15:57

I don't have an answer for this this

play15:58

I've even looked at podcasts okay and

play16:00

I've looked around and every time the

play16:01

interviewer gets asked this question

play16:03

they never come up with a decent

play16:04

response okay um and trust me I've

play16:06

looked around and even in the demon sist

play16:08

view um the answer that he gives isn't

play16:10

exactly that concrete I mean I'll talk

play16:11

about it in a moment but essentially the

play16:13

post here states that I'm not sure

play16:14

people are thinking enough about social

play16:16

upward Mobility evaporating midterm if

play16:18

you're an intellectual you can provide

play16:20

you know the value to make money acquire

play16:22

resources and you know um improve your

play16:24

family's life but that's going to be

play16:25

gone if you want to get an intellectual

play16:26

job there's going to be none if you want

play16:28

to start business what can you provide

play16:29

the AGI con if you're thinking a fible

play16:32

labor business you can bet your bottom

play16:33

dollar that 100 million other people

play16:35

will be competing to do the exact same

play16:36

thing in the long term all value to

play16:38

society will be provided by

play16:40

self-learning mobile robots capable of

play16:42

providing all physical and intellectual

play16:44

labor infinitely better than anything

play16:46

you could possible do and think about

play16:47

like this okay the point this post here

play16:49

trying to make I'm not going to read the

play16:50

entire thing okay is that like think

play16:52

about it from this standpoint let's

play16:53

imagine a world where AGI is here okay

play16:55

and it's virtuoso AGI which means it's

play16:57

better than 99.9% of humans at

play16:59

everything which means okay anything

play17:02

that can be done in the Physical Realm

play17:03

by a human robot is here and can be done

play17:05

and anything that can be done on a

play17:07

computer is going to be done 10 times

play17:09

faster uh for 24 hours okay think about

play17:11

like this if you're coding the AGI can

play17:12

code uh you know with 100% accuracy and

play17:15

it can code 24 hours a day so you're

play17:17

completely out of a job and if you were

play17:18

doing something like Plumbing or

play17:19

something like that they have robots

play17:20

that are just completely agile the

play17:22

bosson Dynamics robot they dropped a new

play17:23

one um and it's cheap and it's fast and

play17:25

it's there okay think about like this

play17:26

okay the point is if that is society

play17:28

okay how on Earth do you have be

play17:30

socially mobile like how do you um move

play17:33

upwards in society usually you get a job

play17:35

you know you make money you save money

play17:36

you invest and then you can do better

play17:38

for yourself but the point is is that

play17:40

you know how on Earth are you supposed

play17:42

to move up and it says you know how does

play17:43

that work and someone did post the

play17:45

interesting question is says not just

play17:46

the absence of upward Mobility but the

play17:48

absence of Hope for Upward Mobility this

play17:50

is going to crush people's psyches and

play17:51

this video isn't a doom and gloom video

play17:53

this video is not to be like look the

play17:55

end is near the end is near I think the

play17:57

future is definitely going to be

play17:58

exciting because one of the things that

play17:59

Demus actually talked about was he said

play18:01

that you know the nature of society is

play18:03

going to change so much that maybe some

play18:04

of these issues won't be issues because

play18:06

you know with all the scientific

play18:07

breakthroughs coming through maybe

play18:08

robots are just going to be doing

play18:10

everything maybe the entire Society just

play18:11

changes I have no idea the point is is

play18:13

that you know there are so many

play18:15

different questions and once AGI gets

play18:16

here it really is a singularity because

play18:18

this is a true concern and of course you

play18:20

know you know there's just a lot that is

play18:23

going on now of course the nature of

play18:24

money is going to change as well and I

play18:26

think that is something that we also

play18:27

need to prepare for because I think as

play18:29

well the tokenization of assets is going

play18:31

to come into it and I always thought

play18:32

that crypto was pretty useless until I

play18:35

really did research about this and

play18:36

essentially you know digital asset

play18:38

tokenization is just a process whereby

play18:40

ownership or rights of an asset are

play18:42

represented as tokens and stored on a

play18:43

blockchain and the point why I'm

play18:45

bringing up tokenization where you can

play18:46

have fractional ownership is because in

play18:48

the future binance is definitely going

play18:50

to change um and tokenization is

play18:51

probably going to be one of those ways

play18:53

which is going to be interesting as well

play18:54

because essentially if we have like this

play18:55

AI world where AI is going to be

play18:57

powering the blockchain I'm guessing due

play18:58

to the nature of these intelligences

play19:01

it's likely that you know the value of

play19:02

money is going to change because not

play19:04

only is capitalism going to

play19:05

fundamentally change but there's also

play19:07

going to potentially be Ubi so the kind

play19:09

of system that we're you know operating

play19:10

right now is going to change completely

play19:13

and also people are stating that you

play19:14

know land ownership may change which is

play19:16

why tokenization is going to be there

play19:17

there's just a whole realm of

play19:19

possibilities that we really aren't

play19:21

thinking of now I do want to also state

play19:23

that you know is it all doom and gloom

play19:25

no of course it's not all doom and gloom

play19:26

you know of course the future isn't

play19:27

horrible there's going to be some major

play19:29

great things you know like for example

play19:30

you know the medical improvements the

play19:32

you know improvements to education being

play19:34

able to get a personalized tutor so you

play19:35

can understand the world and those kind

play19:37

of things I think those are really

play19:38

important and those are the things that

play19:40

people should really be excited about

play19:41

and really be pushing for like you know

play19:43

uh the health breakthroughs that are

play19:44

going to come from you know AGI type

play19:46

systems and of course I do hope that in

play19:48

the future maybe there's some kind of AI

play19:49

system that's able to give you a

play19:51

personalized Health Report immediately

play19:53

rather than having to wait for

play19:54

appointments for a doctor because we've

play19:56

seen with previous research that this is

play19:58

something that is really really

play19:59

effective like a Google's ay system that

play20:01

was able to outperform clinicians so I

play20:04

think that in the future those kind of

play20:05

things are going to be really really

play20:06

cool and of course the ability to create

play20:08

whatever you want um with these

play20:10

generative AI systems or with these AI

play20:12

agents you're going to be able to do a

play20:13

lot of things that you weren't able to

play20:14

do before which means you can also

play20:16

create economic value for yourself if

play20:17

you're able to think creatively and pull

play20:19

things together now of course you could

play20:21

argue that you know AGI could just do

play20:23

that instead it could create a company

play20:24

instead but at the end of the day

play20:25

there's always going to be industries

play20:26

that you know are going to be

play20:28

nonaffected you know for example

play20:29

Healthcare professionals people don't

play20:31

want a robot rubbing on their legs I

play20:32

don't know about you guys I'm not trying

play20:33

to inate anything weird but I just know

play20:35

that you know if I am in a situation

play20:37

where I need recovery or rehab I'm

play20:39

always going to want a human there and

play20:40

of course teachers and educators are

play20:42

always going to want to be human um you

play20:44

know for examples counselors and

play20:45

therapists you know people helping you

play20:47

uh to Grapple with the situation I do

play20:48

think that certain people in you know

play20:50

lawyers judges you know certain people

play20:51

in politics will still remain in their

play20:53

roles of course social workers Community

play20:55

organizers entrepreneurs innovators

play20:57

personal service providers there are

play20:58

still many Industries in which you know

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people are still going to thrive for

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example you know the entertainment

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industry is still one that's still going

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to thrive although it might change due

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to Hollywood and stuff like that but I

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still think you know the sports and

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stuff like that is still going to be

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there but the point is is that you know

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it's not all doom and gloom but I do

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think that we know we need to move

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quicker and as quickly as we are in

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terms of AI development and since it was

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something that I was thinking about the

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fact that you know I was watching a

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podcast and then that guy was saying

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that stuff you know debus I just thought

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that you know I might as well give you

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guys this video because it is something

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that we aren't prepared for currently

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and I think you know open have realized

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that and they were like look Society

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just isn't ready for you know if we drop

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this next level system you know the

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masses of job losses the you know the

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ability for people to comprehend how

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good these systems are and if you've

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watched my videos previously you'll know

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that with the Sora release they

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literally said look you guys aren't

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ready for what we have in store so we

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kind of released Sora to show you what

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is capable and I think that goes to show

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us that you know these governments that

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are in charge you really need to you

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know buckle up because the amount of

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economic change that's going to happen

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we really need to make sure that Society

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has a smooth transition into whatever

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new economic system we are going to

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implement so with that being said what

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do you guys think about Society do you

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think job losses aren't going to be

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there do you think you know it's just

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something that is Transitional and which

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just you know instead of replacing

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people people are just going to

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transition from one industry to another

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do you think Ubi should happen do you

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think governments even going to do it

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because some people are debating that it

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might not happen and people are just

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going to be screwed and do you think

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that the winfall Clause is something

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that should be done I think this is

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definitely something that should be done

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and it does make sense but either way

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I'm someone that is always optimistic I

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don't think there's any point to being a

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Doomer I mean it doesn't help anyone

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certainly it doesn't help yourself so

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with that being said I'm looking forward

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to the future and I'm just going to be

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you know looking for opportunities

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because if you're in this space if

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you're watching these videos you're

play22:41

going to be the first person to

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understand and identify key

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opportunities where you can provide

play22:45

economic value for yourself so I would

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just recommend doing that and staying up

play22:48

to date because a lot of people aren't

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really paying attention they are

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watching this video this video might not

play22:52

get that many views but the point is is

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that you're here you're now you're

play22:54

someone who's early so I would stay up

play22:56

to date with the stuff and that way you

play22:58

can at least provide yourself the best

play22:59

opportunity for whatever the future may

play23:01

be and with that being said for this

play23:03

I'll see you in the next one

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人工智能社会变革经济影响未来预测失业问题基本收入技术进步社会准备经济转型价值重构
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