I Said Hybrids Were The Future. Was I Right?
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the current state of hybrid and electric vehicles, highlighting a stagnation in electric vehicle sales due to insufficient infrastructure and poor resale value. It points out that hybrid sales are increasing, particularly in the US and Europe, as they offer convenience and flexibility. The speaker predicts a continued rise in hybrid vehicles until electric grid upgrades are significantly improved. The script also touches on the potential for small nuclear reactors to become more attractive due to lagging grid connections.
Takeaways
- š The speaker initially predicted that hybrid vehicles will dominate the near-term future of transportation, which was met with skepticism by electric vehicle enthusiasts.
- š Car sales numbers for the second quarter show an overall increase, but a closer look reveals that the majority of this growth is attributed to China, not a significant rise in battery electric vehicle sales in the US or Europe.
- š The speaker suggests that the lack of a rapid expansion in electric vehicle infrastructure is a major factor hindering the widespread adoption of electric vehicles.
- š A graph from Germany illustrates the slow progress in electric grid extension, with the actual progress falling far behind the original and revised plans.
- š The resale value of electric vehicles is poor, which increases their overall cost and may deter potential buyers.
- š” Demographic analysis indicates that electric vehicles are mostly owned by wealthier, eco-conscious households, suggesting a saturation point in this market segment.
- š Expert Jesse Jenkins points out that hybrid electric vehicles are well-suited for large vehicles like pickups and SUVs, which are popular in the US and have specific utility needs.
- š ļø The Ramcharger, a vehicle with both electric motors and a combustion engine, is highlighted as an innovative solution that can recharge batteries, despite the engineering challenges of combining two power systems.
- ā” The International Energy Agency reports warn that the slow expansion of electric grids in most countries will likely slow down the transition to electric vehicles.
- š” The lack of sufficient grid connections could make locally produced energy and small nuclear reactors more financially attractive for energy-heavy industries.
Q & A
What is the speaker's prediction for the near-term future of transportation?
-The speaker predicts that the near-term future of transportation will involve more hybrid vehicles.
What did the speaker download from PWC and why?
-The speaker downloaded a report from PWC containing car sales numbers for the second quarter of the year to provide data on the increase in hybrid vehicle sales.
Why does the speaker believe there has been no significant increase in battery electric sales in the United States?
-The speaker believes the lack of significant increase in battery electric sales is due to the insufficient development of electric vehicle infrastructure.
What does the speaker mention about the electric grid extension in Germany?
-The speaker mentions that the electric grid extension in Germany is lagging, as shown by a graph depicting the planned versus actual kilometers of new electric power lines.
What is one of the issues with electric vehicles that the speaker discusses?
-One issue discussed is the poor resale value of electric vehicles, which makes them more expensive in the long run.
According to the speaker, which demographic group in the US is most likely to buy electric vehicles?
-The demographic group most likely to buy electric vehicles in the US, according to the speaker, is eco-conscious upper middle-class homeowners.
What does Jesse Jenkins argue about the use of electric motors extended by gasoline?
-Jesse Jenkins argues that electric motors extended by gasoline are great for vehicles like full-size pickups and massive SUVs, which are popular in America and Europe for their convenience.
What is the speaker's opinion on the engineering perspective of hybrid vehicles?
-The speaker thinks the engineering perspective of hybrid vehicles is flawed because they have the weight and troubles of both battery-powered systems and combustion engines.
What does the speaker expect to see more of in the future until the electric grid upgrade catches up?
-The speaker expects to see more hybrid vehicles in the future until the electric grid upgrade catches up, based on reports from the International Energy Agency.
What is the speaker's view on the potential increase in the attractiveness of small nuclear reactors?
-The speaker views the potential increase in the attractiveness of small nuclear reactors as a consequence of the lack of sufficient grid connections and the need for locally produced energy.
What is the speaker's stance on the future of transportation in terms of what they want to happen versus what they think will happen?
-The speaker clarifies that their predictions are not based on personal desires but on their analysis of what they think is likely to happen in the transportation sector.
Outlines
š Hybrid Vehicles: The Future of Transportation?
The speaker begins by asserting that hybrid vehicles are the near-term future of transportation, despite criticism from Tesla enthusiasts. They provide a detailed analysis of car sales data from the second quarter, highlighting that while overall sales increased, the most significant growth was in China. In contrast, the United States and Europe saw little growth in battery electric vehicles but a notable rise in hybrid sales. The speaker attributes this to the slow development of electric vehicle infrastructure, making EVs inconvenient for many. They also mention the poor resale value of EVs, which adds to their cost. The speaker cites Ted Nordhaus from the Breakthrough Institute, who also predicts a shift towards hybrid vehicles due to policy and production trends. Demographic saturation in the EV market, particularly in wealthy areas, is noted as a factor contributing to the stagnation in sales. The speaker concludes by sticking to their prediction of a hybrid vehicle surge until electric grid upgrades are significantly improved, referencing the International Energy Agency's warnings on lagging electric grid extensions.
š Privacy and Convenience with NordVPN
In the second paragraph, the speaker transitions to discuss privacy concerns and their preference for NordVPN, a virtual private network (VPN) service. They explain that NordVPN enhances internet security by encrypting connections and preventing data spying or tracking. The speaker appreciates the threat protection features against malware and malicious ads that NordVPN provides. Additionally, they highlight the convenience of accessing geo-restricted content by connecting to NordVPN's global server network. The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe for more content and mentions a special offer using the link nordvpn.com/sabine or the coupon code SABINE.
Mindmap
Keywords
š”Hybrid Vehicles
š”Electric Vehicles (EVs)
š”Infrastructure
š”Resale Value
š”Demographic Saturation
š”Energy-Policy
š”NordVPN
š”International Energy Agency (IEA)
š”Small Nuclear Reactors
š”Eco-Conscious
š”Full-Size Pickups and SUVs
Highlights
Prediction that hybrid vehicles will dominate the near-term future of transportation.
Controversy with Tesla enthusiasts over the preference for hybrid vehicles.
Car sales numbers for Q2 show an overall increase, with a significant rise in China.
In the US, no significant increase in battery electric sales, but a rise in hybrid sales.
Similar trend in Europe with a focus on hybrid vehicles.
Ted Nordhaus from the Breakthrough Institute supports the shift towards hybrid vehicles.
Lack of electric vehicle infrastructure as a barrier to widespread adoption.
Electric grid extension in Germany is not progressing as planned.
Resale value of electric vehicles is poor, making them more expensive in the long run.
Electric vehicle sales stagnation in the US due to market saturation among eco-conscious buyers.
Jesse Jenkins argues for the suitability of hybrid vehicles for specific American and European demands.
Introduction of the Ramcharger by Stellantis, a hybrid vehicle with two electric motors and a combustion engine.
Critique of the engineering logic behind combining electric and combustion engines in a single vehicle.
Expectation of more hybrids until the electric grid infrastructure improves significantly.
Reports from the International Energy Agency warn that electric grid extensions are lagging.
The potential for locally produced energy and small nuclear reactors to become more attractive due to grid limitations.
A disclaimer that the prediction is based on current trends and not personal preference or endorsement.
Promotion of NordVPN for secure internet connections and privacy protection.
Transcripts
A few months ago I told you that theĀ near-term future of transportation isĀ Ā
hybrid vehicles. This rather predictablyĀ pissed of all the Tesla bros who thinkĀ Ā
I donāt know what Iām talkingĀ about. Theyāre right of course,Ā Ā
I have no idea what Iām talking about or whyĀ anyone is listening to me, and yet here you are,Ā Ā
listening to me. While youāre here letāsĀ look at the car sales numbers for quarter 2.
I downloaded this report from PWC so you donātĀ have to, because they insist on putting youĀ Ā
on an email list for this. These are the totalĀ sales numbers in the second quarter of this yearĀ Ā
compared to the previous year. At first sightĀ that looks pretty good. Hey, they all went up.Ā Ā
But hold your confetti. At second sight, you willĀ notice that the part that increased most is China.
If you look at the breakdown for the UnitedĀ States you can see that thereās been basicallyĀ Ā
no increase in battery electric sales, butĀ a significant increase in hybrid sales.Ā Ā
Same thing in Europe, where 5+5 meansĀ the 5 largest European economies plus 5Ā Ā
smaller ones sprinkled on top so thatĀ the Americans donāt get to confused.
Of course, I havenāt been the only to pointĀ out that hybrids are a likely development.Ā Ā
Ted Nordhaus from the BreakthroughĀ Institute recently wrote about this too,Ā Ā
arguing that āThe most likely shift in theĀ focus of both policy and vehicle production,Ā Ā
it seems to me, will be toward variousĀ types of gas/electric hybrid vehicles.ā
My main reason for saying a switchĀ to more hybrid is likely was thatĀ Ā
the infrastructure for electric vehiclesĀ isnāt coming along quickly enough. And forĀ Ā
many people that means electric vehiclesĀ will remain too much of an inconvenience.Ā
In case you are wondering how it is goingĀ with the electric grid extension in Germany,Ā Ā
I just the other day came across this charmingĀ graph. It shows the planned new kilometers forĀ Ā
electric power lines. The red curve is theĀ original plan, the orange the first revision,Ā Ā
the blue the second revision. And the red dots areĀ what actually happened. Itās all going just fine.
Thereās also that now that electric vehicles haveĀ been around for some while people are starting toĀ Ā
notice that the resale value is poor whichĀ effectively makes them even more expensive.
Nordhaus in his article also points out thatĀ at least in the US part of the reason forĀ Ā
the stagnation in electric vehicle sales isĀ that the demographic group most likely to buyĀ Ā
them is near to being saturated. A studyĀ from last year found that in California,Ā Ā
electric vehicles are predominantly registeredĀ in the wealthiest zip codes areas. I havenāt seenĀ Ā
numbers from Europe, but I suspect that itāsĀ a similar thing here. The people I know whoĀ Ā
have electric vehicles are all house ownersĀ that Iād loosely describe as eco-consciousĀ Ā
upper middle class. DemographicallyĀ itās not the big bulk of people.
Another good argument comes fromĀ Jesse Jenkins, an expert on energyĀ Ā
policy at Princeton University who argues moreĀ specifically that electric motors extended byĀ Ā
gasoline are great for quote the āuniquelyĀ American demand for full-size pickups andĀ Ā
massive SUVs.ā Because letās face it,Ā if it canāt haul a boat, three kids,Ā Ā
and a small village, is it even American?Ā Though I would argue theyāre also great forĀ Ā
the European demand for convenience becauseĀ how else do you get the IKEA bed back home.
Jenkins writes that had his insight afterĀ learning about the new Ramcharger fromĀ Ā
Stellantis. The Ramcharger has two electricĀ motors, combined with a combustion engine thatĀ Ā
runs on gasoline and can recharge the batteries.Ā Jenkins writes āI think itās brilliant.āĀ Ā
Which is basically the same I said about theĀ Nissan Quashqai when I first heard about it.
From an engineering perspective, thisĀ is an incredibly stupid idea becauseĀ Ā
you have the weight and troublesĀ of both the battery powered systemĀ Ā
and the combustion engine. But then againĀ from an engineering perspective we shouldĀ Ā
have been using electric vehicles allĀ along, so maybe not the best argument.
I think for the time being Iāll stick byĀ my prediction that weāll see more hybridĀ Ā
in the future until the electricĀ grid upgrade seriously catches up.Ā
I base this expectation mainly on reports fromĀ the international energy agency which has warnedĀ Ā
repeatedly that electric grid extension areĀ lagging behind in most countries. And the mostĀ Ā
obvious consequence of this, I think, willĀ be to slow down the transition to electric.
The second consequence I expect is thatĀ in lack of sufficient grid connections,Ā Ā
locally produced energy willĀ look increasingly appealing,Ā Ā
especially when it comes to energy-heavy industry.Ā That is going to make small nuclear reactorsĀ Ā
financially much more attractive. But thatāsĀ another story and shall be told another time.
And as always, Iām not saying that this is whatĀ I want to happen or that I think itās good thatĀ Ā
this happens, itās just what I think is going toĀ happen. If you want more unformed opinions thatĀ Ā
you complain about, donāt forget to subscribe.Ā Spoiler alert: Thereāll be more bad jokes.
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