NOT TOO LATE! I'm Buying Nvidia Stock (NVDA) After Earnings!
Summary
TLDRNvidia's recent earnings call was pivotal, reflecting the company's role as a key driver in the AI revolution. The company reported record revenues of $30 billion, with a significant 88% coming from data centers, indicating a 154% year-over-year growth. Nvidia's new Blackwell AI chip, set to enter production in Q4, promises a substantial leap in performance, potentially accelerating the AI gold rush. Despite a temporary 3-month delay due to manufacturing challenges, the company is on track to meet demand. Nvidia's dominance in the data center GPU market, coupled with its innovative ecosystem, positions it favorably for future growth, despite competition from both chipmakers and cloud providers developing their own AI accelerators.
Takeaways
- ๐ Nvidia's recent earnings call was pivotal, with its results influencing the trajectory of the AI Revolution.
- ๐ The term 'Magnificent 7' refers to companies like Amazon, Meta, and Tesla that are heavily investing in AI, driving market returns.
- ๐ฐ Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) exceeded expectations, with a significant year-over-year growth, indicating strong market performance.
- ๐ Nvidia's data center business is booming, with revenues skyrocketing 154% year-over-year, underscoring the demand for AI infrastructure.
- ๐ Nvidia dominates the data center GPU market with over 90% share, solidifying its position as a key player in AI technology.
- ๐ The upcoming Blackwell AI chip from Nvidia is expected to revolutionize AI processing, offeringๅคงๅน ๆๅ in performance.
- ๐ ๏ธ Production delays for Blackwell were due to manufacturing challenges, not design flaws, with Nvidia addressing these to improve yields.
- ๐ก Nvidia's focus on direct-to-chip liquid cooling with Blackwell signifies a significant shift in data center cooling technology.
- ๐ Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock price dropped due to a dip in gross margins, which was tied to the production challenges of Blackwell.
- ๐ฎ Looking ahead, Nvidia's continued innovation, including Blackwell and other upcoming technologies, positions it well for future growth in the AI sector.
Q & A
Why was Nvidia's recent earnings call considered one of the most important?
-Nvidia's earnings call was considered one of the most important because it's not just about revenues and profit margins; it decides the speed and scale of the entire AI Revolution. Nvidia's performance is seen as a barometer for the investment in AI infrastructure by other companies.
What is the significance of the 'Magnificent 7' in the context of the AI Revolution?
-The 'Magnificent 7' refers to companies like Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla that have significant data center infrastructures, global products and services benefiting from AI, and deep pockets to invest aggressively in AI. Their performance largely drives the stock market returns related to AI.
How does Nvidia's position as a supplier of AI chips affect its importance in the market?
-Nvidia's position as a supplier of AI chips is crucial because it means they are at the forefront of the 'AI Gold Rush.' Being the company that sells the essential tools ('picks and shovels') for AI development, Nvidia's revenue growth can indicate the pace of AI infrastructure investment by other companies.
What is Blackwell and why is it significant for Nvidia's future?
-Blackwell is Nvidia's next-generation AI chip, which is expected to be a primary driver in the AI Gold Rush. It is designed to perform significantly better than its predecessor, Hopper, in AI training and inference tasks. The speed and scale of Blackwell's deployment in data centers will largely determine the progress of the AI Revolution.
How did Nvidia's financial performance in the reported quarter reflect the company's success?
-Nvidia posted record revenues of $30 billion for the quarter, a 15% increase quarter over quarter and a 122% increase year-over-year. They also reported earnings per share of $6.8, which is 171% higher than a year ago, showcasing their strong financial performance.
What is the role of direct-to-chip liquid cooling in the adoption of Blackwell chips?
-Direct-to-chip liquid cooling is significant for Blackwell chips as it allows for more efficient cooling, which is necessary for the high-performance demands of these chips. This technology is expected to become the standard for cooling in data centers, facilitating the adoption of Blackwell chips.
What are the risks Nvidia faces in terms of competition and supply constraints?
-While Nvidia faces competition from chipmakers like Intel and AMD, and hyperscalers that make their own accelerators, these competitors do not directly compete with Nvidia's market share in GPUs. The real risks are complexity in their ecosystem and supply constraints, which Nvidia is addressing by working closely with partners like TSMC.
How did the delay in Blackwell's production affect Nvidia's gross margins?
-The delay in Blackwell's production due to accuracy limitations in the manufacturing process led to lower yields, which in turn affected Nvidia's gross margins. Despite this, Nvidia managed to maintain high margins at 75.1%, showing their ability to adapt and address production issues.
What is the significance of Nvidia's share repurchase program for investors?
-Nvidia's share repurchase program, with an additional $50 billion approved, is significant for investors as it shows the company's confidence in its long-term growth. Share buybacks can increase the value of outstanding shares and demonstrate a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
What are Nvidia's plans for the long term in terms of product development?
-Nvidia has a robust long-term product development plan, including the launch of Blackwell Ultra chips in 2025, followed by the Reuben architecture in 2026, and Reuben Ultras in 2027. These products are designed to be architecturally compatible, ensuring a smooth transition and continued investment in Nvidia's ecosystem.
Outlines
๐ Nvidia's Pivotal Earnings Call and AI Revolution Impact
Nvidia's recent earnings call is deemed crucial as it's not just about financial performance but also the pace and scale of the AI revolution. The video aims to dissect Nvidia's latest earnings and its implications for the stock market. Nvidia, known for supplying AI chips, is central to the 'AI Gold Rush,' with its revenues indicating the level of AI infrastructure investment by other companies. The earnings call is particularly significant due to the introduction of Nvidia's next-gen AI chip, Blackwell, which is expected to be a key player in the AI market. The video promises to cover Nvidia's earnings results, the significance of Blackwell, potential risks, and future prospects for Nvidia's stock.
๐ Nvidia's Record Revenues and the Importance of Blackwell
Nvidia reported a record-breaking revenue of $30 billion for the quarter, showing a significant increase both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Earnings per share also saw a substantial rise. The data center segment, which accounts for 88% of total revenues, experienced staggering growth, highlighting the importance of Nvidia's position in the AI market. The video discusses the potential impact of Nvidia's financial performance on the broader market and the significance of the Blackwell chip, which is anticipated to drive further growth. The discussion also touches on the risks associated with supply constraints and competition, as well as the strategic importance of Blackwell for data centers and its role in shaping the future of AI.
๐ Deep Dive into Nvidia's Blackwell Chip and Market Dynamics
The paragraph delves into the technical aspects of Nvidia's Blackwell chip, which is designed to offer superior performance in AI training and inference compared to its predecessor, Hopper. It addresses the production challenges faced due to the precision required for the ultra-high-speed chip-to-chip links, leading to a temporary drop in profit margins. The video explains how Nvidia is addressing these challenges and the expected ramp-up of Blackwell production. It also discusses the shift towards direct-to-chip liquid cooling in data centers, which is a significant change influenced by Blackwell's capabilities. The risks and competition Nvidia faces are also explored, emphasizing that the real challenge is not from competitors but from the complexity of the technology and the need to innovate and meet high demand.
๐ Future Outlook for Nvidia's Stock and Market Strategy
The final paragraph outlines the future prospects for Nvidia's stock, including the anticipated ramp-up of Blackwell sales and the expansion of Nvidia's networking solutions. It discusses the company's approach to share buybacks, which signals long-term confidence and can benefit shareholders. Nvidia is also preparing for the AI PC market with new graphics cards and microservices, which are expected to be a revenue multiplier. The paragraph concludes with a look at Nvidia's long-term strategy, including the development of new GPUs and the company's commitment to improving its hardware ecosystem, ensuring ongoing adoption and growth. The video encourages viewers to invest in understanding the science behind stocks for better investment decisions.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กEarnings Call
๐กAI Revolution
๐กData Center
๐กBlackwell
๐กGross Margins
๐กSupply Constraints
๐กCompetition
๐กMarket Share
๐กLiquid Cooling
๐กShare Buybacks
๐กNims
Highlights
Nvidia's earnings call is crucial for understanding the pace and scale of the AI Revolution.
The 'Magnificent 7' tech companies are driving stock market returns due to their AI investments.
Nvidia stands out as the primary supplier of AI chips, akin to selling picks and shovels during a gold rush.
Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share have exceeded expectations, indicating strong market performance.
Data center revenues now account for 88% of Nvidia's total revenues, highlighting their significance.
Nvidia's data center revenues grew by 154% year-over-year, showcasing rapid expansion in the AI sector.
Nvidia holds over 90% of the data center GPU market, demonstrating its dominance.
The global AI market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.8% over the next 8 years.
Nvidia's Blackwell chip is set to be a game-changer in the AI industry with its high-performance capabilities.
Blackwell's innovative design allows for a 10 TB per second link, tricking two chips to function as one.
Production delays for Blackwell were due to fabrication accuracy limitations, not design flaws.
Nvidia expects to ship billions of dollars worth of Blackwell chips in Q4, indicating strong demand.
Direct to chip liquid cooling is a significant shift in data center operations, favored by Blackwell.
Nvidia faces competition from both chipmakers and hyperscalers, but its market position remains strong.
Nvidia's supply constraints are a result of high demand for its products, not a lack of supply.
Nvidia's share repurchase program and new product lines signal confidence in long-term growth.
Nvidia's Nim microservices are expected to be a significant revenue driver in the future.
Long-term plans include the release of new GPU architectures, ensuring compatibility and future sales.
Transcripts
Nvidia just had their most important
earnings call ever whether you're a
longtime Nvidia shareholder or looking
to buy Nvidia stock for the first time
you should know that this isn't just
about revenues and profit margins
nvidia's earnings decide the speed and
the scale of the entire AI Revolution so
in this video I'll break down everything
you need to know about nvidia's latest
earnings call and what it means for the
entire stock market your time is
valuable so let's get right into it to
say this was one of the most anticipated
earnings calls of all time would be a
massive understatement this revolution
is just starting but it all starts with
Nvidia in my opinion it is the most
important earnings not just of the Year
potentially in many years because of
what this represents in terms of attack
let me explain the reason for all this
hype ever since open AI released chat
GPT in November of 2022 the stock
markets returns have been largely driven
by the Magnificent 7 that's because
companies like Amazon meta platform
forms and even Tesla already have huge
data center infrastructures they have
Global products and services that
benefit from Ai and they have very Deep
Pockets that puts them in the perfect
position to invest aggressively in Ai
and outspend the startups and smaller
businesses that compete with them
especially at a time where interest
rates and inflation are making
everything more expensive boy do I feel
that so that's where investors put their
money and as a result the Magnificent 7
outperformed the other 493 companies in
the S&P 500 by a massive margin but even
among those seven one company far
outshine the rest and that's Nvidia
since they're supplying all the AI chips
that everyone else is investing in in a
gold rush you want to be the company
that sells picks and shovels if nvidia's
Revenue drops below expectations that
means companies are investing less into
AI infrastructure than we thought and
the AI Gold Rush is slowing down for the
rest of the market if nvidia's Reven
grow that means the opposite this AI
revolution could be bigger than we
thought or at least happen faster which
drives up forward estimates for the rest
of the market so in a very real way
Nvidia has been driving the returns for
the rest of the S&P 500 that's one
reason why their earnings are always so
important but I said this earnings call
specifically was the most important ever
and that's because of Blackwell nvidia's
Next Generation AI chip I believe the
Blackwell ecosystem will be the primary
picks and shovels in this entire AI Gold
Rush so its speed and scale will largely
be determined by how fast envidia can
get black Wells into Data Centers and at
what cost so that's what I'll cover in
this video I'll walk you through
nvidia's earnings results focusing on
data centers I'll explain what's going
on with Blackwell they're hugely
important Next Generation AI chip I'll
talk about nvidia's biggest risks right
now like their supply constraints and
their competition and of course what's
in store for Nvidia stock in the short
medium and long term there's a lot to
talk about so let's Dive Right In to
nvidia's most important earnings call
Nvidia posted record revenues of $30
billion for the quarter which is a 15%
quarter over quarter and a whopping 122%
year-over-year Nvidia also posted
earnings per share of 68 Which is
171% higher than a year ago after
accounting for their 10 for one stock
split things get even crazier when we
focus on nvidia's data center revenues
which now account for about 88% of their
total revenues today that's why I'm not
covering their other business units
nvidia's data center revenues came in
at$ 26.3 billion up 16% quarter over
quarter and an insane
154% year-over-year just to be clear
that means nvidia's data center revenues
grew by 2 and 1 half times in one year
after they already became a trillion
doll company and they're on Pace to make
over a $100 billion in AI accelerator
Revenue this year alone compare that to
nvidia's two biggest quote unquote
competitors AMD isn't even close to
Nvidia data center sales and Intel is
well as a result Nvidia holds over a 90%
share of the data center GPU market and
that's before their Blackwell GPU sales
ramp up that huge market share is why
Nvidia has so much pricing power even as
a hard Ware company they reported gross
margins of
75.1% putting nvidia's profit margins on
par with most software companies and
that's huge since according to Market us
the global artificial intelligence
Market is expected to almost 12x over
the next 8 years which is a compound
annual growth rate of
36.8% but many of the companies building
Next Generation AI applications are not
publicly traded think about the 9s and
early 2000s companies like Amazon and
Google went public very early in their
growth cycle but today companies are
waiting an average of 10 years longer to
go public that means investors like us
can miss out on most of the returns from
the next Amazon the next Google the next
Nvidia so I spent a lot of time digging
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today all right so Nvidia reported
record revenues and earnings per share
both of which also beat analyst EXP
expectations on top of that they issued
stronger than expected guidance for the
current quarter so why did Nvidia stock
drop 8% after such good earnings well
even though their 75.1% gross margins
are actually up 5 Points year-over-year
they're down 3.3 points from the
previous quarter and this is where
things get really interesting nvidia's
margins dropped because of something in
Blackwell's designs that I've actually
been calling out for a few quarters now
something that's really important for
investors to understand this is
Blackwell the successor to nvidia's
current generation of gpus called Hopper
and compared to Hopper these new
Blackwell chips perform a whopping four
times better at AI training and an
insane 30 times better at AI inference
that's why every company wants these
things since this huge leap in
performance means data centers get a lot
more compute power from a Blackwell
system of the same cost size weight
power or whatever is limiting their
current data center footprint but
Blackwell gpus are actually two separate
dieses connected by an ultra high-speed
10 TB pers second link this connection
is so fast that it actually tricks the
two dieses into thinking there a single
chip it's a really clever design that
gets around a lot of the physical
limitations of the machines that build
these chips a lot but not all of them it
turns out that the rumored 3-month delay
for Blackwell isn't because of a design
flaw at all but due to the accuracy
limitations of some of the machines at
tsmc the company that builds and video
chips the placement of these Ultra
high-speed chipto chip links needs to be
insanely precise to hit those 10 terb
pers second speeds if the link placement
is off even by a tiny amount the whole
chip could fail as its different metal
layers and materials warp and expand
when they heat up during normal
operations as a result the percentage of
working Blackwell chips that tsmc could
produce or the yield went down fewer
chips for the same amount of production
time and materials means lower profit
margins causing nvidia's margins to drop
to
75.1% for the quarter and as for that
rumored 3-month delay Nvidia says it
already made the necessary changes to
improve yields and Blackwell production
is scheduled to ramp up in the fourth
quarter and into next year Nvidia
expects to ship several billion dollars
worth of Blackwell chips in Q4 of this
year and one big reason that data
centers really care about Blackwell in
particular is direct to chip liquid
cooling today around 90% of all server
RS are air cooled that means that a lot
of data centers including hyperscalers
like Amazon Google and Microsoft are
making massive infrastructure changes to
support liquid cooling for their
Blackwell systems specifically industry
estimates suggest that up to 80% of
cooling will become direct to chip
liquid cooling over time so this is a
huge shift in how data centers operate
around the world that's why Blackwell is
such an important chip and this was such
an important earnings call all right all
right now that we walk through nvidia's
data center earnings what's going on
with Blackwell and why it's so important
to Data Centers let's talk about the
risks and if you feel I've earned it
consider hitting the like button and
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helps me out and it lets me know to put
out more content like this thanks and
with that out of the way let's talk
about nvidia's risks starting with their
competition Nvidia has two kinds of
competition and Ironically neither of
them actually compete with Nvidia here
let me explain the first kind of
competition comes from chipmakers like
Intel and AMD but nvidia's revenue from
data centers is five times bigger than
intels and amds put together and beyond
that a lot of Intel and amd's data
center revenues actually come from
selling CPUs not gpus or other kinds of
accelerators so they don't really
compete with Nvidia as much as serve the
part of the data center Market that
doesn't run on nvidia's ecosystems given
nvidia's 90 plus% market share for gpus
I'd say this is a pretty small piece of
the market the second kind of
competition comes from hyperscalers that
make their own accelerators mainly
Microsoft Google and Amazon but there
are two key reasons they don't compete
with Nvidia either the first and most
obvious reason is they don't sell their
chips to anyone else Microsoft's Azure
Maya Amazon's tranium and inferentia
chips and Google's tensor processing
units only exist within their own clouds
to help their own customers with AI
workloads specific to their use cases
nvidia's gpus are much more general
purpose and over 55% of nvidia's data
center revenues come from companies
outside these big three Cloud providers
and that number is only growing over
time but the second reason that
Microsoft Amazon and Google don't really
compete with Nvidia is that's just not
how data centers work in the first place
let me give you an example most people
only have one phone or one car at a time
so every sale for one company is a
missed customer for their competition
every car Tesla sells is one GM doesn't
every phone Google sells is one that
Samsung doesn't but data centers don't
work like that especially when it comes
to AI when Google buys a GPU from AMD or
uses their homegrown tensor processing
units that's not one less sale for
NVIDIA since data centers handle a wide
variety of workloads for many different
kinds of businesses data centers are
portfolios of different hardware and
software Solutions and as demand for a
specific kind of workload grows data
center operators will buy more of the
right Hardware to support it but in the
end their goal is always to meet the
changing needs of their customers and
optimize their costs only a small
portion of all workloads around the
world involve AI today so Blackwell
would be total Overkill that's why data
centers buy chips from AMD or Intel for
certain tasks they build their own chips
for others and they use nvidia's gpus
for heavy duty training and inference
and no matter what Intel or AMD might
say
inference is becoming a heavyduty AI
application as the industry moves from
predicting the next word in a sentence
to generating images and entire videos
so while companies might make chips that
Benchmark well against Nvidia for large
language models their performance
remains to be seen for text to video
models like open AI Sora or complex
protein structure and interaction models
like Alpha fold 3 by Google deepmind my
point is nvidia's biggest risk isn't
competition at all it's complexity
Nvidia didn't change Blackwell's design
to compete with AMD or Amazon they
changed it because even the best chip
fabrication company on the planet had
trouble placing their Ultra high-speed
chipto chip connections and that's just
one piece of one part of the ecosystem
investors may not realize this but when
Nvidia comes out with a new chip
architecture like Hopper Blackwell or
Reuben they're not designing one chip
they're designing five separate chips
that make up an entire computing
platform a new GPU an nvlink switch chip
that connects multiple gpus together a
network interface card and two separate
Smart Switch chips to connect multiple
racks together one for ethernet and one
for infiniband if any one of those chips
has an issue nvidia's entire data center
ecosystem has an issue that's why I
spend so much time understanding
nvidia's products not just their profits
and why I focus on the science behind
this stock but credit where credit is
due look how fast Nvidia was able to
address this issue with Blackwell and
how little it dropped their overall
margins from 78 to 75% for a single
quarter so the only other risk worth
mentioning is nvidia's Supply
constraints look every company on Earth
is constrained by one of two things
they're either Supply constrained or
demand constrained and as long as Nvidia
keeps making massive leaps in compute
power they're going to be Supply
constrained but Jensen was crystal clear
that Nvidia is ramping up Supply to meet
the insane demand for Blackwell and
backfill demand for Hopper it seems like
a very clearly this was a production
issue and not a fundamental design issue
with Blackwell but the deployment in the
real world what does that look like
tangibly and is there a sort of delay in
the timeline of that deployment and thus
revenue from that product I I um let's
see that's just the fact that I was so
clear and it wasn't clear enough uh kind
of tripped me up there right away and so
so let's see we uh we made a mass change
to improve the yield functionality of
Blackwell is wonderful we're sampling
Blackwell all over the world today uh we
have started volume production uh volume
production will ship in Q4 Q4 we will
have billions of dollars of Blackwell
revenues and um we will ramp from there
we will ramp from there either way I'd
rather see Nvidia run out of supply then
run out of demand and as a shareholder I
trust in video's leadership to keep
innovating expanding their total
addressable market and work closely with
tsmc and their other partners to meet as
much demand as they can speaking of
which let's talk about what's in store
for Invidia stock over the short medium
and long term because there's plenty for
shareholders to look forward to in
addition to Blackwell sales ramping up
over the next few quarters they're also
ramping up their ethernet based
networking Solutions like their Spectrum
Force switch and their Bluefield data
processing units both of these are chips
that do calculations to spread AI
workloads out across multiple gpus and
then bring the final outputs back
together $3.7 billion of nvidia's
Revenue came from networking products
this past quarter which is actually 30%
more than all of amd's data center
revenues for the quarter and Beyond the
networking sales themselves Nvidia is
expanding its total addressable Market
big time by supporting ethernet as well
as infiniband and that means even more
data centers can integrate Blackwell and
Hopper systems down the road over the
medium term Nvidia is joining the likes
of Apple Google and meta platforms when
it comes to share BuyBacks when a
company buys back some of its shares the
value of each outstanding share goes up
since it represents a slightly bigger
piece of the company nvidia's board of
directors approved another $50 billion
in share Buybacks in addition to the
$7.5 billion of shares they're still
authorized to buy back from the last
repurchase approval I like share
BuyBacks way more than dividends because
they show more long-term confidence in
the business and those shares can be
sold again at better valuations while
dividends never make it back to the
company for future growth besides
BuyBacks Nvidia is gearing up for the
aipc market with new GeForce RTX
graphics cards and Nims at a high level
nvidia's Nim microservices stitch
together different functions to create a
higher level service for example
nvidia's Avatar cloud engine or Ace is
built on microservices to do things like
Translate speech to text and text to
speech match a characters lips and
facial expressions to what they're
saying follow a specific set of rules
context and guard rails and so on I
think nvidia's Nims will be a real
Revenue multiplier for NVIDIA over the
long term since companies pay a per GPU
subscription for these services and in
the long term Jensen actually announced
three different gpus at computex 2024
the Blackwell Ultra chips which ship in
2025 the architecture after Blackwell
which is called Reuben which will ship
in 2026 and then Reuben Ultras which
will ship in 20127 all of these gpus are
architecturally compatible which means
that a hopper compute tray can be
replaced with Blackwell or a Reuben tray
down the road so when a data center buys
chips from Nvidia today they're already
investing in the infrastructure that
supports new Chips making future sales
much more likely for NVIDIA that also
means that older chips will benefit
whenever Nvidia or one of their
customers writes a new acceleration
library or software application so the
whole Nvidia Hardware ecosystem gets
better over time which leads to more
adoption which leads to more developers
and so the cycle repeats full circle
this is why it's so important to
understand the science behind the stocks
and if you want to see how I picked some
of the highest performing tech stocks
before they made massive moves earlier
this year check out this video next or
if you want to see all my Nvidia covers
including interviews with their
Executives this playlist is for you
either way thanks for watching and until
next time this is ticker symble you my
name is Alex reminding you that the best
investment you can make is in you
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