NOT TOO LATE! I'm Buying Nvidia Stock (NVDA) After Earnings!

Ticker Symbol: YOU
31 Aug 202418:45

Summary

TLDRNvidia's recent earnings call was pivotal, reflecting the company's role as a key driver in the AI revolution. The company reported record revenues of $30 billion, with a significant 88% coming from data centers, indicating a 154% year-over-year growth. Nvidia's new Blackwell AI chip, set to enter production in Q4, promises a substantial leap in performance, potentially accelerating the AI gold rush. Despite a temporary 3-month delay due to manufacturing challenges, the company is on track to meet demand. Nvidia's dominance in the data center GPU market, coupled with its innovative ecosystem, positions it favorably for future growth, despite competition from both chipmakers and cloud providers developing their own AI accelerators.

Takeaways

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Nvidia's recent earnings call was pivotal, with its results influencing the trajectory of the AI Revolution.
  • ๐ŸŒŸ The term 'Magnificent 7' refers to companies like Amazon, Meta, and Tesla that are heavily investing in AI, driving market returns.
  • ๐Ÿ’ฐ Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) exceeded expectations, with a significant year-over-year growth, indicating strong market performance.
  • ๐Ÿš€ Nvidia's data center business is booming, with revenues skyrocketing 154% year-over-year, underscoring the demand for AI infrastructure.
  • ๐Ÿ† Nvidia dominates the data center GPU market with over 90% share, solidifying its position as a key player in AI technology.
  • ๐Ÿ†• The upcoming Blackwell AI chip from Nvidia is expected to revolutionize AI processing, offeringๅคงๅน…ๆๅ‡ in performance.
  • ๐Ÿ› ๏ธ Production delays for Blackwell were due to manufacturing challenges, not design flaws, with Nvidia addressing these to improve yields.
  • ๐Ÿ’ก Nvidia's focus on direct-to-chip liquid cooling with Blackwell signifies a significant shift in data center cooling technology.
  • ๐Ÿ“‰ Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock price dropped due to a dip in gross margins, which was tied to the production challenges of Blackwell.
  • ๐Ÿ”ฎ Looking ahead, Nvidia's continued innovation, including Blackwell and other upcoming technologies, positions it well for future growth in the AI sector.

Q & A

  • Why was Nvidia's recent earnings call considered one of the most important?

    -Nvidia's earnings call was considered one of the most important because it's not just about revenues and profit margins; it decides the speed and scale of the entire AI Revolution. Nvidia's performance is seen as a barometer for the investment in AI infrastructure by other companies.

  • What is the significance of the 'Magnificent 7' in the context of the AI Revolution?

    -The 'Magnificent 7' refers to companies like Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Tesla that have significant data center infrastructures, global products and services benefiting from AI, and deep pockets to invest aggressively in AI. Their performance largely drives the stock market returns related to AI.

  • How does Nvidia's position as a supplier of AI chips affect its importance in the market?

    -Nvidia's position as a supplier of AI chips is crucial because it means they are at the forefront of the 'AI Gold Rush.' Being the company that sells the essential tools ('picks and shovels') for AI development, Nvidia's revenue growth can indicate the pace of AI infrastructure investment by other companies.

  • What is Blackwell and why is it significant for Nvidia's future?

    -Blackwell is Nvidia's next-generation AI chip, which is expected to be a primary driver in the AI Gold Rush. It is designed to perform significantly better than its predecessor, Hopper, in AI training and inference tasks. The speed and scale of Blackwell's deployment in data centers will largely determine the progress of the AI Revolution.

  • How did Nvidia's financial performance in the reported quarter reflect the company's success?

    -Nvidia posted record revenues of $30 billion for the quarter, a 15% increase quarter over quarter and a 122% increase year-over-year. They also reported earnings per share of $6.8, which is 171% higher than a year ago, showcasing their strong financial performance.

  • What is the role of direct-to-chip liquid cooling in the adoption of Blackwell chips?

    -Direct-to-chip liquid cooling is significant for Blackwell chips as it allows for more efficient cooling, which is necessary for the high-performance demands of these chips. This technology is expected to become the standard for cooling in data centers, facilitating the adoption of Blackwell chips.

  • What are the risks Nvidia faces in terms of competition and supply constraints?

    -While Nvidia faces competition from chipmakers like Intel and AMD, and hyperscalers that make their own accelerators, these competitors do not directly compete with Nvidia's market share in GPUs. The real risks are complexity in their ecosystem and supply constraints, which Nvidia is addressing by working closely with partners like TSMC.

  • How did the delay in Blackwell's production affect Nvidia's gross margins?

    -The delay in Blackwell's production due to accuracy limitations in the manufacturing process led to lower yields, which in turn affected Nvidia's gross margins. Despite this, Nvidia managed to maintain high margins at 75.1%, showing their ability to adapt and address production issues.

  • What is the significance of Nvidia's share repurchase program for investors?

    -Nvidia's share repurchase program, with an additional $50 billion approved, is significant for investors as it shows the company's confidence in its long-term growth. Share buybacks can increase the value of outstanding shares and demonstrate a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

  • What are Nvidia's plans for the long term in terms of product development?

    -Nvidia has a robust long-term product development plan, including the launch of Blackwell Ultra chips in 2025, followed by the Reuben architecture in 2026, and Reuben Ultras in 2027. These products are designed to be architecturally compatible, ensuring a smooth transition and continued investment in Nvidia's ecosystem.

Outlines

00:00

๐Ÿš€ Nvidia's Pivotal Earnings Call and AI Revolution Impact

Nvidia's recent earnings call is deemed crucial as it's not just about financial performance but also the pace and scale of the AI revolution. The video aims to dissect Nvidia's latest earnings and its implications for the stock market. Nvidia, known for supplying AI chips, is central to the 'AI Gold Rush,' with its revenues indicating the level of AI infrastructure investment by other companies. The earnings call is particularly significant due to the introduction of Nvidia's next-gen AI chip, Blackwell, which is expected to be a key player in the AI market. The video promises to cover Nvidia's earnings results, the significance of Blackwell, potential risks, and future prospects for Nvidia's stock.

05:01

๐Ÿ“ˆ Nvidia's Record Revenues and the Importance of Blackwell

Nvidia reported a record-breaking revenue of $30 billion for the quarter, showing a significant increase both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Earnings per share also saw a substantial rise. The data center segment, which accounts for 88% of total revenues, experienced staggering growth, highlighting the importance of Nvidia's position in the AI market. The video discusses the potential impact of Nvidia's financial performance on the broader market and the significance of the Blackwell chip, which is anticipated to drive further growth. The discussion also touches on the risks associated with supply constraints and competition, as well as the strategic importance of Blackwell for data centers and its role in shaping the future of AI.

10:03

๐Ÿ” Deep Dive into Nvidia's Blackwell Chip and Market Dynamics

The paragraph delves into the technical aspects of Nvidia's Blackwell chip, which is designed to offer superior performance in AI training and inference compared to its predecessor, Hopper. It addresses the production challenges faced due to the precision required for the ultra-high-speed chip-to-chip links, leading to a temporary drop in profit margins. The video explains how Nvidia is addressing these challenges and the expected ramp-up of Blackwell production. It also discusses the shift towards direct-to-chip liquid cooling in data centers, which is a significant change influenced by Blackwell's capabilities. The risks and competition Nvidia faces are also explored, emphasizing that the real challenge is not from competitors but from the complexity of the technology and the need to innovate and meet high demand.

15:04

๐ŸŒŸ Future Outlook for Nvidia's Stock and Market Strategy

The final paragraph outlines the future prospects for Nvidia's stock, including the anticipated ramp-up of Blackwell sales and the expansion of Nvidia's networking solutions. It discusses the company's approach to share buybacks, which signals long-term confidence and can benefit shareholders. Nvidia is also preparing for the AI PC market with new graphics cards and microservices, which are expected to be a revenue multiplier. The paragraph concludes with a look at Nvidia's long-term strategy, including the development of new GPUs and the company's commitment to improving its hardware ecosystem, ensuring ongoing adoption and growth. The video encourages viewers to invest in understanding the science behind stocks for better investment decisions.

Mindmap

Keywords

๐Ÿ’กEarnings Call

An earnings call is a conference call that publicly traded companies typically hold after releasing their quarterly or annual financial results. It's a platform for company executives to discuss the results and answer questions from analysts and investors. In the context of the video, Nvidia's earnings call is considered important as it provides insights into the company's financial health and future prospects, which are crucial for shareholders and potential investors.

๐Ÿ’กAI Revolution

The AI Revolution refers to the transformative impact of artificial intelligence technologies on various industries and society as a whole. In the video, the AI Revolution is central to understanding Nvidia's role, as the company's earnings and technological advancements are seen as indicators of the pace and scale at which AI is being adopted and developed across the market.

๐Ÿ’กData Center

A data center is a facility that houses a large array of networked computer servers, storage systems, and other network-related infrastructure. They are critical to cloud computing and big data processing. The video emphasizes Nvidia's data center revenues, which have grown significantly, indicating the company's importance in providing the hardware necessary for AI and data processing.

๐Ÿ’กBlackwell

Blackwell is Nvidia's next-generation AI chip, which is expected to significantly advance the capabilities of AI training and inference. The video discusses Blackwell as a key driver for Nvidia's future growth and as a pivotal technology in the ongoing AI Revolution. Its performance and market adoption are central to the company's prospects in the data center GPU market.

๐Ÿ’กGross Margins

Gross margins represent the proportion of revenue left after deducting the cost of goods sold (COGS). It's a key financial metric that indicates a company's profitability. In the video, Nvidia's gross margins are discussed to highlight the company's profitability and efficiency in its operations, with a particular focus on how the introduction of Blackwell might impact these margins.

๐Ÿ’กSupply Constraints

Supply constraints refer to limitations in the production or availability of goods or services. In the context of the video, Nvidia faces supply constraints due to high demand for its products, particularly its advanced AI chips. The company's ability to overcome these constraints is crucial for meeting market demand and maintaining its competitive edge.

๐Ÿ’กCompetition

Competition in this context refers to the rivalry between companies in the same industry, striving to gain market share and customer preference. The video discusses Nvidia's competition from both traditional chipmakers like Intel and AMD, and tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon that develop their own AI accelerators. Understanding this competition is vital for assessing Nvidia's market position and future growth potential.

๐Ÿ’กMarket Share

Market share is the portion of the total available market that a company or product captures. The video highlights Nvidia's dominant market share in the data center GPU market, which is a testament to its strong position and influence in the AI industry. High market share often translates to greater pricing power and profitability.

๐Ÿ’กLiquid Cooling

Liquid cooling is a method of cooling electronics, such as computer processors, by circulating a liquid through a heat exchanger. The video mentions that Blackwell supports direct-to-chip liquid cooling, which is a significant technological advancement for data centers, as it allows for more efficient cooling and can support higher-performance computing.

๐Ÿ’กShare Buybacks

Share buybacks occur when a company repurchases its own shares from the open market, reducing the number of shares available and potentially increasing the value of the remaining shares. In the video, Nvidia's board of directors approving $50 billion in share buybacks is mentioned as a sign of confidence in the company's future and a way to return value to shareholders.

๐Ÿ’กNims

Nims, or NVIDIA AI microservices, are modular software components that can be combined to create more complex AI applications. The video discusses how Nims can be a revenue multiplier for Nvidia, as they offer a subscription-based model for AI services, which can lead to recurring revenue streams and increased customer stickiness.

Highlights

Nvidia's earnings call is crucial for understanding the pace and scale of the AI Revolution.

The 'Magnificent 7' tech companies are driving stock market returns due to their AI investments.

Nvidia stands out as the primary supplier of AI chips, akin to selling picks and shovels during a gold rush.

Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share have exceeded expectations, indicating strong market performance.

Data center revenues now account for 88% of Nvidia's total revenues, highlighting their significance.

Nvidia's data center revenues grew by 154% year-over-year, showcasing rapid expansion in the AI sector.

Nvidia holds over 90% of the data center GPU market, demonstrating its dominance.

The global AI market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 36.8% over the next 8 years.

Nvidia's Blackwell chip is set to be a game-changer in the AI industry with its high-performance capabilities.

Blackwell's innovative design allows for a 10 TB per second link, tricking two chips to function as one.

Production delays for Blackwell were due to fabrication accuracy limitations, not design flaws.

Nvidia expects to ship billions of dollars worth of Blackwell chips in Q4, indicating strong demand.

Direct to chip liquid cooling is a significant shift in data center operations, favored by Blackwell.

Nvidia faces competition from both chipmakers and hyperscalers, but its market position remains strong.

Nvidia's supply constraints are a result of high demand for its products, not a lack of supply.

Nvidia's share repurchase program and new product lines signal confidence in long-term growth.

Nvidia's Nim microservices are expected to be a significant revenue driver in the future.

Long-term plans include the release of new GPU architectures, ensuring compatibility and future sales.

Transcripts

play00:00

Nvidia just had their most important

play00:01

earnings call ever whether you're a

play00:03

longtime Nvidia shareholder or looking

play00:05

to buy Nvidia stock for the first time

play00:08

you should know that this isn't just

play00:09

about revenues and profit margins

play00:11

nvidia's earnings decide the speed and

play00:13

the scale of the entire AI Revolution so

play00:17

in this video I'll break down everything

play00:18

you need to know about nvidia's latest

play00:20

earnings call and what it means for the

play00:23

entire stock market your time is

play00:25

valuable so let's get right into it to

play00:27

say this was one of the most anticipated

play00:29

earnings calls of all time would be a

play00:31

massive understatement this revolution

play00:34

is just starting but it all starts with

play00:36

Nvidia in my opinion it is the most

play00:38

important earnings not just of the Year

play00:41

potentially in many years because of

play00:44

what this represents in terms of attack

play00:46

let me explain the reason for all this

play00:48

hype ever since open AI released chat

play00:50

GPT in November of 2022 the stock

play00:53

markets returns have been largely driven

play00:55

by the Magnificent 7 that's because

play00:58

companies like Amazon meta platform

play01:00

forms and even Tesla already have huge

play01:02

data center infrastructures they have

play01:04

Global products and services that

play01:06

benefit from Ai and they have very Deep

play01:08

Pockets that puts them in the perfect

play01:11

position to invest aggressively in Ai

play01:13

and outspend the startups and smaller

play01:15

businesses that compete with them

play01:17

especially at a time where interest

play01:19

rates and inflation are making

play01:20

everything more expensive boy do I feel

play01:23

that so that's where investors put their

play01:26

money and as a result the Magnificent 7

play01:28

outperformed the other 493 companies in

play01:31

the S&P 500 by a massive margin but even

play01:35

among those seven one company far

play01:38

outshine the rest and that's Nvidia

play01:40

since they're supplying all the AI chips

play01:42

that everyone else is investing in in a

play01:45

gold rush you want to be the company

play01:47

that sells picks and shovels if nvidia's

play01:49

Revenue drops below expectations that

play01:51

means companies are investing less into

play01:53

AI infrastructure than we thought and

play01:55

the AI Gold Rush is slowing down for the

play01:57

rest of the market if nvidia's Reven

play02:00

grow that means the opposite this AI

play02:02

revolution could be bigger than we

play02:04

thought or at least happen faster which

play02:06

drives up forward estimates for the rest

play02:08

of the market so in a very real way

play02:11

Nvidia has been driving the returns for

play02:13

the rest of the S&P 500 that's one

play02:16

reason why their earnings are always so

play02:18

important but I said this earnings call

play02:20

specifically was the most important ever

play02:23

and that's because of Blackwell nvidia's

play02:26

Next Generation AI chip I believe the

play02:28

Blackwell ecosystem will be the primary

play02:30

picks and shovels in this entire AI Gold

play02:33

Rush so its speed and scale will largely

play02:35

be determined by how fast envidia can

play02:38

get black Wells into Data Centers and at

play02:40

what cost so that's what I'll cover in

play02:43

this video I'll walk you through

play02:44

nvidia's earnings results focusing on

play02:46

data centers I'll explain what's going

play02:48

on with Blackwell they're hugely

play02:50

important Next Generation AI chip I'll

play02:53

talk about nvidia's biggest risks right

play02:55

now like their supply constraints and

play02:57

their competition and of course what's

play02:59

in store for Nvidia stock in the short

play03:01

medium and long term there's a lot to

play03:04

talk about so let's Dive Right In to

play03:06

nvidia's most important earnings call

play03:08

Nvidia posted record revenues of $30

play03:10

billion for the quarter which is a 15%

play03:13

quarter over quarter and a whopping 122%

play03:17

year-over-year Nvidia also posted

play03:19

earnings per share of 68 Which is

play03:23

171% higher than a year ago after

play03:25

accounting for their 10 for one stock

play03:27

split things get even crazier when we

play03:29

focus on nvidia's data center revenues

play03:32

which now account for about 88% of their

play03:34

total revenues today that's why I'm not

play03:37

covering their other business units

play03:39

nvidia's data center revenues came in

play03:40

at$ 26.3 billion up 16% quarter over

play03:45

quarter and an insane

play03:47

154% year-over-year just to be clear

play03:51

that means nvidia's data center revenues

play03:53

grew by 2 and 1 half times in one year

play03:56

after they already became a trillion

play03:58

doll company and they're on Pace to make

play04:00

over a $100 billion in AI accelerator

play04:03

Revenue this year alone compare that to

play04:06

nvidia's two biggest quote unquote

play04:08

competitors AMD isn't even close to

play04:11

Nvidia data center sales and Intel is

play04:15

well as a result Nvidia holds over a 90%

play04:18

share of the data center GPU market and

play04:21

that's before their Blackwell GPU sales

play04:23

ramp up that huge market share is why

play04:26

Nvidia has so much pricing power even as

play04:29

a hard Ware company they reported gross

play04:31

margins of

play04:32

75.1% putting nvidia's profit margins on

play04:35

par with most software companies and

play04:38

that's huge since according to Market us

play04:40

the global artificial intelligence

play04:42

Market is expected to almost 12x over

play04:45

the next 8 years which is a compound

play04:47

annual growth rate of

play04:49

36.8% but many of the companies building

play04:51

Next Generation AI applications are not

play04:54

publicly traded think about the 9s and

play04:56

early 2000s companies like Amazon and

play04:59

Google went public very early in their

play05:01

growth cycle but today companies are

play05:03

waiting an average of 10 years longer to

play05:05

go public that means investors like us

play05:07

can miss out on most of the returns from

play05:09

the next Amazon the next Google the next

play05:12

Nvidia so I spent a lot of time digging

play05:15

into this and The fundrise Innovation

play05:17

fund is a great way to invest in some of

play05:19

the best tech companies before they go

play05:21

public venture capital is usually only

play05:24

for the ultra wealthy but fund Rises

play05:26

Innovation fund gives regular investors

play05:28

access to some of the top

play05:30

private pre-ipo companies on Earth

play05:32

without breaking the bank The fundrise

play05:35

Innovation fund has an impressive track

play05:37

record already investing over $100

play05:39

million into some of the largest most in

play05:42

demand Ai and data infrastructure

play05:44

companies so if you want access to some

play05:46

of the best late stage AI companies

play05:48

before they IPO check out the fundrise

play05:51

Innovation fund using my link below

play05:53

today all right so Nvidia reported

play05:55

record revenues and earnings per share

play05:57

both of which also beat analyst EXP

play05:59

expectations on top of that they issued

play06:02

stronger than expected guidance for the

play06:03

current quarter so why did Nvidia stock

play06:05

drop 8% after such good earnings well

play06:08

even though their 75.1% gross margins

play06:11

are actually up 5 Points year-over-year

play06:13

they're down 3.3 points from the

play06:16

previous quarter and this is where

play06:18

things get really interesting nvidia's

play06:20

margins dropped because of something in

play06:22

Blackwell's designs that I've actually

play06:24

been calling out for a few quarters now

play06:26

something that's really important for

play06:28

investors to understand this is

play06:30

Blackwell the successor to nvidia's

play06:32

current generation of gpus called Hopper

play06:35

and compared to Hopper these new

play06:37

Blackwell chips perform a whopping four

play06:39

times better at AI training and an

play06:41

insane 30 times better at AI inference

play06:44

that's why every company wants these

play06:46

things since this huge leap in

play06:47

performance means data centers get a lot

play06:49

more compute power from a Blackwell

play06:51

system of the same cost size weight

play06:54

power or whatever is limiting their

play06:56

current data center footprint but

play06:58

Blackwell gpus are actually two separate

play07:00

dieses connected by an ultra high-speed

play07:03

10 TB pers second link this connection

play07:05

is so fast that it actually tricks the

play07:07

two dieses into thinking there a single

play07:09

chip it's a really clever design that

play07:11

gets around a lot of the physical

play07:13

limitations of the machines that build

play07:15

these chips a lot but not all of them it

play07:18

turns out that the rumored 3-month delay

play07:20

for Blackwell isn't because of a design

play07:22

flaw at all but due to the accuracy

play07:24

limitations of some of the machines at

play07:27

tsmc the company that builds and video

play07:29

chips the placement of these Ultra

play07:31

high-speed chipto chip links needs to be

play07:34

insanely precise to hit those 10 terb

play07:36

pers second speeds if the link placement

play07:38

is off even by a tiny amount the whole

play07:41

chip could fail as its different metal

play07:43

layers and materials warp and expand

play07:45

when they heat up during normal

play07:47

operations as a result the percentage of

play07:49

working Blackwell chips that tsmc could

play07:51

produce or the yield went down fewer

play07:55

chips for the same amount of production

play07:56

time and materials means lower profit

play07:59

margins causing nvidia's margins to drop

play08:01

to

play08:02

75.1% for the quarter and as for that

play08:05

rumored 3-month delay Nvidia says it

play08:07

already made the necessary changes to

play08:09

improve yields and Blackwell production

play08:11

is scheduled to ramp up in the fourth

play08:13

quarter and into next year Nvidia

play08:15

expects to ship several billion dollars

play08:17

worth of Blackwell chips in Q4 of this

play08:20

year and one big reason that data

play08:22

centers really care about Blackwell in

play08:24

particular is direct to chip liquid

play08:26

cooling today around 90% of all server

play08:29

RS are air cooled that means that a lot

play08:31

of data centers including hyperscalers

play08:33

like Amazon Google and Microsoft are

play08:36

making massive infrastructure changes to

play08:38

support liquid cooling for their

play08:40

Blackwell systems specifically industry

play08:43

estimates suggest that up to 80% of

play08:45

cooling will become direct to chip

play08:47

liquid cooling over time so this is a

play08:50

huge shift in how data centers operate

play08:52

around the world that's why Blackwell is

play08:55

such an important chip and this was such

play08:57

an important earnings call all right all

play08:59

right now that we walk through nvidia's

play09:00

data center earnings what's going on

play09:02

with Blackwell and why it's so important

play09:04

to Data Centers let's talk about the

play09:06

risks and if you feel I've earned it

play09:09

consider hitting the like button and

play09:10

subscribing to the channel that really

play09:12

helps me out and it lets me know to put

play09:14

out more content like this thanks and

play09:16

with that out of the way let's talk

play09:18

about nvidia's risks starting with their

play09:20

competition Nvidia has two kinds of

play09:22

competition and Ironically neither of

play09:25

them actually compete with Nvidia here

play09:28

let me explain the first kind of

play09:30

competition comes from chipmakers like

play09:32

Intel and AMD but nvidia's revenue from

play09:34

data centers is five times bigger than

play09:37

intels and amds put together and beyond

play09:40

that a lot of Intel and amd's data

play09:42

center revenues actually come from

play09:44

selling CPUs not gpus or other kinds of

play09:47

accelerators so they don't really

play09:49

compete with Nvidia as much as serve the

play09:51

part of the data center Market that

play09:53

doesn't run on nvidia's ecosystems given

play09:56

nvidia's 90 plus% market share for gpus

play09:59

I'd say this is a pretty small piece of

play10:01

the market the second kind of

play10:03

competition comes from hyperscalers that

play10:05

make their own accelerators mainly

play10:07

Microsoft Google and Amazon but there

play10:10

are two key reasons they don't compete

play10:12

with Nvidia either the first and most

play10:14

obvious reason is they don't sell their

play10:16

chips to anyone else Microsoft's Azure

play10:18

Maya Amazon's tranium and inferentia

play10:21

chips and Google's tensor processing

play10:23

units only exist within their own clouds

play10:25

to help their own customers with AI

play10:27

workloads specific to their use cases

play10:30

nvidia's gpus are much more general

play10:32

purpose and over 55% of nvidia's data

play10:35

center revenues come from companies

play10:37

outside these big three Cloud providers

play10:40

and that number is only growing over

play10:42

time but the second reason that

play10:43

Microsoft Amazon and Google don't really

play10:45

compete with Nvidia is that's just not

play10:48

how data centers work in the first place

play10:50

let me give you an example most people

play10:52

only have one phone or one car at a time

play10:55

so every sale for one company is a

play10:57

missed customer for their competition

play10:59

every car Tesla sells is one GM doesn't

play11:02

every phone Google sells is one that

play11:04

Samsung doesn't but data centers don't

play11:07

work like that especially when it comes

play11:09

to AI when Google buys a GPU from AMD or

play11:12

uses their homegrown tensor processing

play11:14

units that's not one less sale for

play11:16

NVIDIA since data centers handle a wide

play11:19

variety of workloads for many different

play11:21

kinds of businesses data centers are

play11:23

portfolios of different hardware and

play11:25

software Solutions and as demand for a

play11:28

specific kind of workload grows data

play11:30

center operators will buy more of the

play11:32

right Hardware to support it but in the

play11:34

end their goal is always to meet the

play11:36

changing needs of their customers and

play11:38

optimize their costs only a small

play11:40

portion of all workloads around the

play11:42

world involve AI today so Blackwell

play11:45

would be total Overkill that's why data

play11:47

centers buy chips from AMD or Intel for

play11:49

certain tasks they build their own chips

play11:52

for others and they use nvidia's gpus

play11:54

for heavy duty training and inference

play11:56

and no matter what Intel or AMD might

play11:58

say

play11:59

inference is becoming a heavyduty AI

play12:02

application as the industry moves from

play12:04

predicting the next word in a sentence

play12:06

to generating images and entire videos

play12:09

so while companies might make chips that

play12:11

Benchmark well against Nvidia for large

play12:13

language models their performance

play12:15

remains to be seen for text to video

play12:17

models like open AI Sora or complex

play12:20

protein structure and interaction models

play12:22

like Alpha fold 3 by Google deepmind my

play12:25

point is nvidia's biggest risk isn't

play12:27

competition at all it's complexity

play12:30

Nvidia didn't change Blackwell's design

play12:32

to compete with AMD or Amazon they

play12:35

changed it because even the best chip

play12:37

fabrication company on the planet had

play12:39

trouble placing their Ultra high-speed

play12:41

chipto chip connections and that's just

play12:43

one piece of one part of the ecosystem

play12:46

investors may not realize this but when

play12:48

Nvidia comes out with a new chip

play12:50

architecture like Hopper Blackwell or

play12:52

Reuben they're not designing one chip

play12:55

they're designing five separate chips

play12:57

that make up an entire computing

play12:59

platform a new GPU an nvlink switch chip

play13:02

that connects multiple gpus together a

play13:05

network interface card and two separate

play13:07

Smart Switch chips to connect multiple

play13:09

racks together one for ethernet and one

play13:12

for infiniband if any one of those chips

play13:15

has an issue nvidia's entire data center

play13:17

ecosystem has an issue that's why I

play13:20

spend so much time understanding

play13:21

nvidia's products not just their profits

play13:24

and why I focus on the science behind

play13:26

this stock but credit where credit is

play13:28

due look how fast Nvidia was able to

play13:31

address this issue with Blackwell and

play13:33

how little it dropped their overall

play13:34

margins from 78 to 75% for a single

play13:38

quarter so the only other risk worth

play13:40

mentioning is nvidia's Supply

play13:43

constraints look every company on Earth

play13:45

is constrained by one of two things

play13:48

they're either Supply constrained or

play13:50

demand constrained and as long as Nvidia

play13:52

keeps making massive leaps in compute

play13:54

power they're going to be Supply

play13:56

constrained but Jensen was crystal clear

play13:59

that Nvidia is ramping up Supply to meet

play14:01

the insane demand for Blackwell and

play14:04

backfill demand for Hopper it seems like

play14:07

a very clearly this was a production

play14:09

issue and not a fundamental design issue

play14:11

with Blackwell but the deployment in the

play14:14

real world what does that look like

play14:15

tangibly and is there a sort of delay in

play14:17

the timeline of that deployment and thus

play14:20

revenue from that product I I um let's

play14:23

see that's just the fact that I was so

play14:25

clear and it wasn't clear enough uh kind

play14:28

of tripped me up there right away and so

play14:30

so let's see we uh we made a mass change

play14:33

to improve the yield functionality of

play14:35

Blackwell is wonderful we're sampling

play14:37

Blackwell all over the world today uh we

play14:40

have started volume production uh volume

play14:43

production will ship in Q4 Q4 we will

play14:47

have billions of dollars of Blackwell

play14:50

revenues and um we will ramp from there

play14:54

we will ramp from there either way I'd

play14:57

rather see Nvidia run out of supply then

play14:59

run out of demand and as a shareholder I

play15:02

trust in video's leadership to keep

play15:03

innovating expanding their total

play15:05

addressable market and work closely with

play15:07

tsmc and their other partners to meet as

play15:10

much demand as they can speaking of

play15:13

which let's talk about what's in store

play15:14

for Invidia stock over the short medium

play15:17

and long term because there's plenty for

play15:19

shareholders to look forward to in

play15:21

addition to Blackwell sales ramping up

play15:22

over the next few quarters they're also

play15:24

ramping up their ethernet based

play15:26

networking Solutions like their Spectrum

play15:28

Force switch and their Bluefield data

play15:30

processing units both of these are chips

play15:32

that do calculations to spread AI

play15:34

workloads out across multiple gpus and

play15:37

then bring the final outputs back

play15:39

together $3.7 billion of nvidia's

play15:42

Revenue came from networking products

play15:44

this past quarter which is actually 30%

play15:47

more than all of amd's data center

play15:49

revenues for the quarter and Beyond the

play15:51

networking sales themselves Nvidia is

play15:54

expanding its total addressable Market

play15:56

big time by supporting ethernet as well

play15:59

as infiniband and that means even more

play16:01

data centers can integrate Blackwell and

play16:03

Hopper systems down the road over the

play16:05

medium term Nvidia is joining the likes

play16:07

of Apple Google and meta platforms when

play16:09

it comes to share BuyBacks when a

play16:11

company buys back some of its shares the

play16:13

value of each outstanding share goes up

play16:16

since it represents a slightly bigger

play16:18

piece of the company nvidia's board of

play16:20

directors approved another $50 billion

play16:23

in share Buybacks in addition to the

play16:25

$7.5 billion of shares they're still

play16:27

authorized to buy back from the last

play16:29

repurchase approval I like share

play16:31

BuyBacks way more than dividends because

play16:33

they show more long-term confidence in

play16:35

the business and those shares can be

play16:37

sold again at better valuations while

play16:39

dividends never make it back to the

play16:41

company for future growth besides

play16:43

BuyBacks Nvidia is gearing up for the

play16:45

aipc market with new GeForce RTX

play16:48

graphics cards and Nims at a high level

play16:50

nvidia's Nim microservices stitch

play16:53

together different functions to create a

play16:55

higher level service for example

play16:57

nvidia's Avatar cloud engine or Ace is

play17:00

built on microservices to do things like

play17:02

Translate speech to text and text to

play17:04

speech match a characters lips and

play17:06

facial expressions to what they're

play17:07

saying follow a specific set of rules

play17:10

context and guard rails and so on I

play17:12

think nvidia's Nims will be a real

play17:13

Revenue multiplier for NVIDIA over the

play17:16

long term since companies pay a per GPU

play17:18

subscription for these services and in

play17:21

the long term Jensen actually announced

play17:23

three different gpus at computex 2024

play17:27

the Blackwell Ultra chips which ship in

play17:29

2025 the architecture after Blackwell

play17:31

which is called Reuben which will ship

play17:33

in 2026 and then Reuben Ultras which

play17:36

will ship in 20127 all of these gpus are

play17:39

architecturally compatible which means

play17:41

that a hopper compute tray can be

play17:43

replaced with Blackwell or a Reuben tray

play17:45

down the road so when a data center buys

play17:47

chips from Nvidia today they're already

play17:50

investing in the infrastructure that

play17:52

supports new Chips making future sales

play17:54

much more likely for NVIDIA that also

play17:56

means that older chips will benefit

play17:58

whenever Nvidia or one of their

play18:00

customers writes a new acceleration

play18:02

library or software application so the

play18:05

whole Nvidia Hardware ecosystem gets

play18:07

better over time which leads to more

play18:09

adoption which leads to more developers

play18:11

and so the cycle repeats full circle

play18:14

this is why it's so important to

play18:16

understand the science behind the stocks

play18:18

and if you want to see how I picked some

play18:20

of the highest performing tech stocks

play18:22

before they made massive moves earlier

play18:24

this year check out this video next or

play18:26

if you want to see all my Nvidia covers

play18:29

including interviews with their

play18:30

Executives this playlist is for you

play18:33

either way thanks for watching and until

play18:35

next time this is ticker symble you my

play18:37

name is Alex reminding you that the best

play18:40

investment you can make is in you

Rate This
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

Related Tags
Nvidia EarningsAI RevolutionStock MarketTech InvestingBlackwell ChipData CentersAI InfrastructureMarket AnalysisFinancial InsightsInvestment Strategy