Nvidia Will 25% Crash On Q2 Earnings | NVDA Exposed By Analyst

Summary

The discussion revolves around the performance and outlook of Nvidia, highlighting its recent stock volatility and upcoming earnings report. Analysts are divided on Nvidia's future, with some expressing concern over its high valuation and competition in the AI sector. Several major investors have reduced their holdings, reflecting caution in the market. Despite these concerns, Nvidia continues to show strong growth, and its next earnings report is eagerly awaited to gauge the sustainability of its performance. The conversation also touches on broader market trends in big tech and AI stocks.

Takeaways

• 📉 The stock discussed experienced a 133% drop but quickly rebounded, indicating a volatile market reaction.
• 📈 Technical traders are watching for a bounce from the 200-day line, suggesting a potential recovery or continued upward trend.
• 🔍 Upcoming earnings reports for Nvidia are under scrutiny, with expectations of continued strong earnings per share growth.
• 🚀 Nvidia's stock has seen significant gains, up 32% in a quarter, highlighting the importance of staying invested in tech.
• 🤔 There's uncertainty about whether Nvidia can maintain its impressive growth, with some investors hedging with other sectors.
• 📊 Three significant investors have reduced their Nvidia holdings, which could signal a lack of confidence or a strategic move.
• 💬 Commentary on Nvidia's Blackwell chips and their production ramp-up in the second half of 2024 is anticipated.
• 📉 Concerns about Nvidia's stock valuation have led to a downgrade in its rating, reflecting potential overvaluation.
• 💡 The potential of AI and machine learning is driving interest in tech stocks, with Nvidia at the forefront of this trend.
• 📈 A user claims to have achieved significant returns using an AI-driven stock selection strategy, turning $4,000 into $143,000 in a year.
• 📊 Market predictions suggest that Nvidia's competition and industry outlook will be key factors in its future performance.

Q & A

What significant event is expected to impact Nvidia's stock price in the near future?

Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is expected to significantly impact its stock price, as investors are keen to see if the company can continue its impressive earnings per share growth.

What percentage of growth in earnings per share did Nvidia achieve in the last quarter year over year?

Nvidia achieved a 45% growth in earnings per share in the last quarter year over year.

What is the potential implication of the 133% drop in Nvidia's stock and its subsequent rebound?

The 133% drop and rebound suggest a market correction that was short-lived, indicating that the stock may have found support at the 200-day moving average line, which could be a bullish signal for technical traders.

What are some of the big names that have reduced their exposure to Nvidia stock?

David Tepper's Appaloosa Management, Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office, and Soros Fund Management are among the big names that have reduced their exposure to Nvidia stock.

How much of its Nvidia holdings did Appaloosa Management reportedly sell off in the last quarter?

Appaloosa Management reportedly sold off around 3.7 million shares, which is 84.4% of its holdings in Nvidia.

What is the significance of the commentary on Blackwell chips for Nvidia's future?

The commentary on Blackwell chips is significant as it relates to Nvidia's ability to ramp up production in the second half of 2024, which could affect investor confidence and the company's growth prospects.

What is the current consensus among analysts regarding Nvidia's stock rating and price target?

The majority of analysts have a buy rating for Nvidia's stock, with an average price target of $144, indicating a potential increase of 45% from its current price.

What challenges does Nvidia face in the next year according to the transcript?

Nvidia is expected to face challenges such as increasing competition, the potential for a market downturn, and the possibility of not meeting the high expectations set by its previous performance.

What is the context behind the potential collaboration between SoftBank and Intel to produce an AI chip?

SoftBank held talks with Intel to produce an AI chip that could rival Nvidia, aiming to combine ARM's chip designs with Graphcore's production expertise. However, the plan fell through due to Intel's inability to meet SoftBank's requirements.

What is the potential impact of Huawei's new AI chip on Nvidia's market position in China?

Huawei's new AI chip could challenge Nvidia within China, especially considering the US regulations that have restricted Nvidia from selling its advanced chips to Chinese customers due to national security concerns.

How has the broader technology sector performed in relation to Nvidia's stock movement?

The technology sector, including Nvidia, has experienced significant volatility and a correction, but has also shown strong gains in recovery, indicating a potential for continued growth despite market fluctuations.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Nvidia's Stock Performance and Upcoming Earnings Report

The first paragraph discusses the recent performance of Nvidia's stock, highlighting a significant drop followed by a rebound supported by the 200-day line. The focus is on the anticipation of Nvidia's earnings report, which is expected to reveal whether the company can maintain its impressive year-over-year earnings per share growth of 45%. The paragraph also touches on the company's position in the AI market, potential challenges, and the impact of major investors reducing their stakes in Nvidia. It concludes with commentary on the state of the tech market and the importance of being invested in it.

05:02

🏭 Nvidia's Data Center Business and Market Reactions

The second paragraph delves into Nvidia's involvement in data centers and the sale of its shares by significant investors such as David Tepper's Appaloosa Management and Stanley Druckenmiller's family office. It discusses the potential implications of these sales and the market's reaction to Nvidia's performance and future outlook. The paragraph also speculates on the company's ability to continue its growth trajectory and mentions the upcoming release of financial results, which are expected to be a strong indicator of Nvidia's market position.

10:03

🤖 AI and Nvidia's Stock Market Strategy

This paragraph introduces a stock market strategy that utilizes artificial intelligence to select stocks and claims significant returns, turning $4,000 into $143,000 within a year. It emphasizes the use of AI in stock picking and the impressive returns from the 10 stocks bought the previous month, which yielded a 177% return. The speaker promotes a course that reveals the strategy and offers access to the stocks selected monthly, urging potential investors to join a Patreon for exclusive insights.

15:03

🛑 Bearish Sentiment and Competitive Challenges for Nvidia

The fourth paragraph addresses the bearish sentiment surrounding Nvidia's stock, with a focus on short sellers and their impact on the stock price. It mentions Jim Cramer's views on the potential influence of insider information and the interconnected performance of Nvidia and other tech stocks. The paragraph also discusses the short interest in Nvidia and its decrease, suggesting a possible shift in market sentiment. Additionally, it covers predictions for Nvidia's stock price and the company's outlook amidst recession fears and competitive challenges from other AI chip manufacturers like Huawei and Intel.

Keywords

💡Technical traders

Technical traders are individuals who use charts, patterns, and technical analysis to make trading decisions without necessarily considering the fundamental aspects of a company. In the video, they are noted for their interest in the stock's bounce off the 200-day line, which is a significant technical indicator for these traders.

💡Earnings report

An earnings report is a periodic release by a company detailing its financial performance over a given time frame. The script highlights the anticipation surrounding Nvidia's earnings report and its potential impact on the perception of the company's growth and profitability.

💡Earnings per share (EPS) growth

EPS growth refers to the year-over-year increase in a company's earnings per share. The video script mentions Nvidia's impressive 45% EPS growth last quarter, which is a key metric for investors evaluating the company's financial health and potential for future growth.

💡AI follow-through

AI follow-through in this context refers to the sustained impact and growth in the field of artificial intelligence. The script discusses the importance of this for Nvidia's future performance, as it indicates whether the company can continue to capitalize on AI trends.

💡Hedging

Hedging is a risk management strategy used in finance to offset potential losses. The script suggests that investors might want to hedge their tech investments with other sectors, indicating a strategy to mitigate risk while still participating in the tech market.

💡Meta

Meta, formerly known as Facebook, is a social media and technology company. The script mentions Meta as a company that the speaker likes at current prices, suggesting a belief in its potential despite previous challenges, such as the costs associated with their metaverse endeavors.

💡Appaloosa Management

Appaloosa Management is an investment firm known for its active investment strategies. The script notes that this firm significantly reduced its holdings in Nvidia, which could indicate a shift in confidence or strategy regarding the company's prospects.

💡Blackwell chips

Blackwell chips refer to a specific product that Nvidia is developing. The script mentions concerns about production and delivery, highlighting the importance of these chips for Nvidia's business and the market's perception of its ability to innovate and meet demand.

💡Downgrade

A downgrade in the context of stock ratings means that an analyst has lowered their assessment of a stock's potential performance. The script cites an example of Nvidia's stock being downgraded from a 'buy' to a 'neutral' rating due to valuation concerns.

💡ZT systems

ZT systems is a company that is being acquired by Nvidia, as mentioned in the script. The acquisition is significant as it values ZT systems at around $4.9 billion, indicating Nvidia's strategic expansion into areas like data centers and server infrastructure.

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI is the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. The script discusses AI's potential impact on various sectors and its role in driving the growth of companies like Nvidia, which is seen as a leader in AI technology.

💡Stock market strategy

A stock market strategy refers to a specific approach or plan for investing in the stock market. The script mentions an AI-driven strategy that the speaker claims has yielded significant returns, highlighting the increasing role of technology in investment decision-making.

Highlights

Nvidia's stock experienced a 133% drop followed by a quick rebound, highlighting the volatility in the market.

Technical traders are watching Nvidia's earnings report for continued earnings per share growth, a key indicator for the stock's performance.

Nvidia's stock has surged 32% in a quarter, outperforming the market and attracting investor attention.

Meta's current pricing is considered favorable, with the company's ad revenue and app machine showing strength despite metaverse investments.

Three major investors, including Appaloosa Management, reduced their Nvidia holdings significantly, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

Nvidia's Blackwell chip production is a focus, with the company aiming to ramp up production in the second half of 20124, a statement that may affect investor confidence.

Analysts predict a healthy earnings report for Nvidia, but the market's reaction will depend on whether the company meets or beats expectations.

Nvidia's stock received a downgrade to a neutral rating from a buy rating due to valuation concerns, suggesting potential risks for investors.

Nvidia's acquisition of ZT systems for $4.9 billion, including a contingent payment, signals the company's expansion strategy.

AI's potential impact on various sectors is significant, with machine learning capabilities expected to drive proficiency and innovation.

An individual claims to have turned $4,000 into $143,000 using an AI-driven stock market strategy, offering a course for others to learn the method.

Tech has led the market recovery but remains the worst-performing sector since July, with semiconductors showing strong recovery gains.

Market volatility is expected to persist for the next 2-3 months, influenced by factors such as the election period.

Nvidia's portfolio includes stakes in various companies, some of which have shown gains despite a challenging second quarter.

Citadel, a successful hedge fund, reduced its Nvidia holdings significantly, which may reflect broader market trends.

SoftBank's discussions with Intel to produce an AI chip to rival Nvidia highlight the competitive landscape in the AI chip market.

Huawei is reportedly close to releasing an AI chip to challenge Nvidia within China, amidst the ongoing US-China tech tensions.

Intel's restructuring and cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and dividend elimination, indicate challenges in the chipmaking industry.

Transcripts

went down 133% so it hadit a correction

but it didn't last very long so for you

technical traders out there it bounced

off the 200 day line and just come

roaring back um and to Echo what Ali

said I think that the uh earnings report

I think all eyes are on nvidia's

earnings report next week and the

question is you know can it continue to

deliver the amazing earnings per share

growth that it's had you know

45% last quarter year over year and

everyone's going to be watching that um

to see how big this AI follow-through is

going to be and I think it's going to be

a healthy report I I can't predict if

we're going to miss by two cents or

they've been beating uh pretty regularly

so if it's another beat the market is

going to be happy you've got to be in

Tech now you might want to hedge with

some other sectors but if you're missing

if you're sitting on the sidelines with

big Tech in general you've missed a lot

of gains uh like Nvidia up 32% in a

quarter it's pretty amazing I like meta

at these prices right now I think the

worst of uh how much money they saning

in the metaverse is over uh they've got

a commanding lead in ads right now and

their App machine is phenomenal big

names exit Nvidia stock as AI giant

stumbles before earnings three big names

appeared to have slashed their exposure

to Nvidia last quarter including David

Tea's Appaloosa management which dumped

around 3.7 million shares or 84.4% of

its Holdings over the 3 months ending in

June uh and those I think are going to

be the two big things that customers

watch also any commentary uh on the

Blackwell chips uh the information

reported that uh the Nvidia is having

trouble getting them out the door Nvidia

basically came out and said we're on

track to ramp production in the second

half of 20124 and so that's more or less

staying with what they've said in the

past uh so it'll be interesting to see

if we get any kind of commentary there

but like I said the the main issue is

going to be will investors still be on

board with that again slowing but still

massive growth that they're seeing all

right hie we're going to wait and see

what we hear from Nvidia next week

certainly a lot writing on that report

hie thanks so much however I think it

will face increasingly harder challenges

over the next year I consider the stock

expensive with challenges on the horizon

yeah well large cap Tech uh I mean all

of them basically to some extent there's

some that are bad and for a while but I

think overall this is a good place to be

we've talked about Apple Google is one

that I'm a little bit alphabet I'm a

little bit cautious on that one Nvidia

stock gets a rare downgrade post 154%

returns valuation concerns remain New

Street research Pierre fagu downgraded

nvidia's stock to a neutral rating from

a buy rating stating valuation concerns

analyst said will only materialize in a

bull case in which the Outlook Beyond

2025 increases materially and we do not

have the conviction on this scenario

playing out yet I'm agreeing with Ollie

I don't think they're going to be broken

up if you look at the Microsoft case how

long that thing dragged out but it could

make the street and analyst cautious on

investing heavily so support for the

stock I think could

decline yeah yeah just a few seconds

left Ali anything else that we left out

in the groups that we watch I mean

Nvidia I think everyone's trying to at

this point but they did say that earlier

today this cash and stock deal does

value the privately held ZT systems that

are around $4.9 billion this includes a

contingent payment of up to 400 million

based on certain Milestones after the

transaction is completed prediction

Nvidia is going to be crushed by

competition over the next 2 years the

excitement surrounding AI has to do with

the capacity for software and systems to

learn over time without human

intervention this machine learning

ability should allow AI driven software

and systems to become more proficient at

their assigned tasks and learn new

skills thus giving the technology

utility in most sectors and industries I

use a stock market strategy in which I

pick 10 stocks every every month using

artificial intelligence and get massive

returns using this strategy I have

turned $4,000 into

$143,000 in the last one year the 10

stocks I bought last month has given me

177% return and I have again bought

these 10 stocks if you want to learn the

strategy which I have revealed in my

3-hour course and get access to see

which 10 stocks I'm buying every month

and which trades I'm taking plus all

these benefits click the link in

description and join my patreon join

fast because this is a limited time

offer those are the two product launches

that we think could potentially see more

upside to consensus estimate Zeno States

Zeno notes that while Tech has led the

way in the market recovery it Remains

the worst performing sector since July's

Market Peak semiconductors experienced

the most severe sell-off but have since

shown the strongest gains in recovery

looking ahead Zeno predicts more choppy

action following this surge expecting

Market volatility to persist for the

next 2 to 3 months and through the

election period the deal is expected to

close in the first half of next year

subject to of course regulatory

approvals but ZT systems is currently

designed and make servers server rcks

and other infrastructure data centers so

those data centers are increasing

overall Stanley dren Miller's duy family

office unloaded around 1.5 million

Nvidia shares representing around 88% of

his Holdings in the stock while activist

investor Elliot management sold a small

50,000 holding in the

chipmaker Soros fund management the

investment vehicle founded by

billionaire investors George Soros also

exited Nvidia selling around 217,000

shares analysts said will only

materialize in a bull case in which the

Outlook Beyond 2025 increases materially

and we do not have the conviction on

this scenario playing out yet Bloomberg

wrote quoting Fu's additional upsides

faru also said that the franchise's

quality is intact but if there is

anything a risk of derating the current

Outlook shall remain unchanged is NVIDIA

the future of AI or a bubble waiting to

burst told by montly fool Nvidia is

still delivering great products and

strong growth so it's not a bubble it

might overcome them and continue its

historic run or it could get crushed I'm

not sure which of these outcomes will

occur so I will stay on the sideline for

now prediction by Yahoo you'll likely

wish you bought Nvidia stock hand over

fist before OG

28 but at the same time tsmc's surging

Revenue growth over the past 3 months is

also an indicator of a potentially

strong showing from Nvidia when it

releases its fiscal 2025 second quarter

results for the 3 months ended July 28th

on a 28 tsmc's Revenue increased 30% in

May followed by a 33% increase in June

and an even better showing last

month analysts are anticipating Nvidia

to deliver $28.5 billion in revenue for

fiscal

Q2 that would be a 111% increase from

the same period last year for comparison

nvidia's Revenue in fiscal q1 which

ended in April was up a whopping 262

year-over-year to $26

billion billionaires are selling Nvidia

stock and buying one stock split AI

stock hand over fist broadcom the stock

split AI stock billionaires were buying

broadcom breaks its business into

semiconductor Solutions and

infrastructure software the company has

a strong presence in both

spaces within semiconductor Solutions

broadcom is the market leader in

networking chips and application

specific integrated circuit looking

ahead Wall Street expects broadcom to

grow non-ape generally accepted

accounting principal earnings per share

at 21% annually through

2026 that consensus estimate makes the

current valuation of 37.8 times non-gap

earnings look

reasonable big names exit Nvidia stock

as AI giant stumbles before earnings

three big names appeared to have slashed

their exposure to Nvidia last quarter

including David tea Appaloosa management

which dumped around 3.7 million shares

or 84.4% of its Holdings over the 3

months ending in June Stanley dram

Miller's duy family office unloaded

around 1.5 million Nvidia shares

representing around 88% of his Holdings

in the stock while activist investor

Elliot management sold a small 50,000

holding in the

chipmaker Soros fund management the

investment vehicle founded by

billionaire investor George Soros also

exited Nvidia selling around 217,000

shares David teer Appaloosa cut major

Nvidia stake during in the second

quarter trimmed other Mega cap Tech

positions the repositioning in Nvidia

shares proceeded a sell off in the AI

Dowling as well as the entire technology

sector the chip stock is down more than

4% since the start of the third quarter

after an almost 37% rally in the second

quarter Nvidia has soared 138% this year

dren Miller Soros teer among funds

selling Nvidia in second quarter as tech

stocks slump the recent slump in

nvidia's share price has seen an

assortment of the world's top money

manager managers cash in on gains made

during the 2023 rally by ditching shares

in the microchip maker as the stock hit

all-time highs in the second quarter of

2024 new US 13 F filing show

high-profile investment funds including

Stanley dren Miller's du family office

David Tea's Appaloosa management Sor

capital and Lee an Slow's Maverick

Capital all cut their stakes in Nvidia

in the second

quarter the filing shown video share

price is up more than 700% since the out

of 2023 following a major rally in Tech

sector stocks fueled by the potential of

artificial intelligence

Technologies the bill Melinda Gates

Foundation previously fully exited its

stake in Nvidia in the fourth quarter of

2023 I use a stock market strategy in

which I pick 10 stocks every month using

artificial intelligence and get massive

returns using this strategy I have

turned $4,000 into

$143,000 in the last one year the 10

stocks I bought last month has given me

177% return and I have again bought

these 10 stocks if you want to learn the

strategy which I have revealed in my

3-hour course and get access to see

which 10 stocks I'm buying every month

and which trades I'm taking plus all

these benefits click the link in

description and join my patreon join

fast because this is a limited time

offer Jim Kramer says shorts are

crushing Nvidia amid the downturn Jim

Kramer host of Mad Money highlighted

increased bearish activity surrounding

the stock in an X post on August 8th

Kramer suggested that short sellers are

significantly impacting nvidia's share

price while questioning the possibility

of Insider information at play at the

same time Kramer stated that Nvidia

along with El liy is currently under

significant bearish pressure as short

sellers look for opportunities they

consider Easy Money the financial

commentator pointed out that bearish

investors are targeting both Lily and

Nvidia which he views as pivotal to the

broader Market's performance he

highlighted a recent instance where

Lily's impressive quarterly report had a

notable impact on nvidia's stock

performance illustrating how closely

linked these two equities are inidia

short interest drop it's worth noting

that according to data from marketbeat

on August 8th Nvidia reported a short

interest of 28030 million shares as of

July 15th reflecting a 6.70% decrease

from the previous month this decline

suggests that while Nvidia has faced

downward pressure bearish sentiment in

the stock may not be as intense as it

appears the short interest ratio which

measures the days needed to cover short

positions based on the average trading

volume of 46.1 16 million shares is 0.7

days indicating a relatively quick

coverage period for short sellers

suggesting a shift in Market sentiment

towards

Nvidia recession fears for the stock

market although Nvidia and the General

stock market have faced significant

volatility primarily due to fears of a

possible recession in the United States

Kramer has offered a contrary opinion he

noted that current corporate earnings do

not indicate at an impending recession

Wall Street predicts Nvidia stock price

for next 12 months for the moment the

majority of the 41 analysts offering

their ratings and price predictions for

Nvidia stock agree that nvda shares are

still a strong buy with 37 of them

recommending a buy Force sticking to the

hold score and with no sell calls as per

tip ranks data on August 8th at the same

time the consensus of these experts

offers an average Nvidia stock price

Target of

$144 which would represent an increase

of 45% from its current situation with

the lowest offered Target at $100 and

the highest standing at $200 among these

analysts is Piper Sandler's harsh Kumar

who recently said that Nvidia stocks

looked attractive after their sizable

pullback representing a tremendous

opportunity for investors to stock up on

Nvidia shares while they are still

trading relatively cheap according to

the stock market analyst who still

stands by his buy rating an Nvidia stock

price Target at

$142.6 the company does not seem to

anticipate any meaningful impact of

delays to the timing of its Blackwell

chip despite pushing the ramp back a bit

as he further

explained prediction this chip stock

will beat Nvidia in the second half of

the Year Intel just announced its

biggest restructuring in years with

plans to lay off at least 15% of its

Workforce through the end of 20202 as

part of a plan to cut $10 billion in

costs the company also reported

disappointing second quarter earnings

issued weak guidance and eliminated its

dividend in total the announcement

portrayed a company in disarray in spite

of CEO Pat Ginger's having had three

years to mount a turnaround at the

Legacy

chipmaker these stocks in nvidia's

portfolio took a hit in the second

quarter Nvidia held stakes in arm

SoundHound AI Nano X Imaging recursion

Pharmaceuticals and serve robotics at

the end of the second quarter nvidia's

13f filing this week

showed most of the stocks in nvidia's

portfolio lost ground during the second

quarter though a majority have still

gained since the start of the Year arm

SoundHound a and serve have climbed at a

faster Pace than the sp500 so far this

year while Nano X Imaging lagged with a

13% gain and recursion Pharmaceuticals

dropped nearly

32% Citadel the most successful hedge

fund of all time ditched about 500,000

shares in the second quarter of this

year to take its holding to $19 MN at

the end of June down from $60 MN at the

end of March according to us regulatory

filings and Paul singer Elliot

management which recently warned

investors that Nvidia was in a bubble

and AI was overhyped ditched its entire

holding of 50,000

shares SoftBank discussed AI chips tie

up with Intel to rival Nvidia please use

the sharing tools found via the share

button at the top or side of

Articles SoftBank held talks with Intel

about producing an artificial

intelligence chip to compete with Nvidia

but the plan founded after the US

chipmaker struggled to meet the Japanese

group's

requirements negotiations to partner

with Intel would have accelerated ated

softbank's efforts to combine the chip

designs of its Crown Jewel arm with the

production expertise of its latest

acquisition

graphcore said people familiar with the

matter Huawei close to releasing AI chip

to rival Nvidia in China wsj China's

Huawei is nearly ready to unveil a new

artificial intelligence chip at hopes it

can challenge Nvidia within China amid a

ratcheting up of the soo US tech War The

Wall Street Journal reported on

Tuesday huawei's latest processor the

asend 910c is reportedly being Ed by

Chinese internet and telecom companies

in recent weeks and Huawei is said to

have told told potential clients that

the chip is comparable to nvidia's

h100 us Regulators last year put in

place rules that stopped Nvidia from

selling its Advanced chips including the

h100 to Chinese customers citing

National Security

concerns first SoftBank discussed AI

chip tie up with Intel to challenge

Nvidia please use the sharing tools

found via the share button at the top or

side of articles but first soft Bank

held negotiations to partner with Intel

to produce an AI chip to rival Nvidia

but conversations collapsed after the US

chipmaker struggled to meet the Japanese

group's requirements the Ft today

reveals the potential collaboration

would have accelerated softbank's

efforts to combine the chip designs of

its subsidiary arm with the production

expertise of its latest acquisition

graphcore creating a rival to nvidia's

Market leading chips according to people

familiar with the matter SoftBank has

blamed Intel for the collapse of the

talks these people said claiming the

chipmaker was incapable of meeting its

demands for volume and speed it is now

focusing on discussions with Taiwan

semiconductor manufacturing Co