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Summary

In this financial market analysis session, the focus is on the S&P 500's buy bias and the potential impact of the PCE print and Canadian GDP release. The presenter discusses the Fed's rate cut expectations and the importance of the labor market's health. They analyze market reactions to economic data, highlighting the significance of non-farm payrolls and the end-of-month effect on stocks. The session provides insights into trading opportunities, emphasizing the need to watch for trapped buyers and sellers to identify potential market reversals and entry points for long positions in the S&P 500.

Takeaways

• 📈 The S&P 500 has a buy bias and it's considered safe to hold through the PC event, which is anticipated to be low impact.
• ⚠️ There's a risk if the PCE print comes in higher than expected, which would be an immediate exit signal for the S&P 500 position.
• 📉 Analysts predict a core PCE reading of 0.15% and an annualized reading around 2%, indicating a drop and potential downside for the dollar if the drop is larger than expected.
• 💹 The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four times this year, with a 33% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September.
• 📉 The labor market is showing signs of weakness with initial and continued jobless claims trending higher, and nonfarm payroll jobs trending lower.
• 💲 The prospect of monetary easing is supporting the S&P 500 and weakening the US dollar.
• 📊 The Canadian GDP release at 1:30 is a potential trading opportunity, with expectations of a 0.6% reading and the potential for CAD strength if it surprises to the upside.
• 🌐 The US and Canadian GDP releases are significant as they can influence currency pairs like USD/CAD.
• 📈 The S&P 500 long position is still valid post-PC print, and there's a potential for a retest of recent highs.
• 🔍 The market's focus has shifted from inflation to employment, with the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices guiding their decisions.

Q & A

What is the current bias for S&P 500 according to the script?

The current bias for S&P 500 is a buy bias at market, which is fine to hold through the PC event.

What is expected from the PC event mentioned in the script?

The PC event is expected to be low or a non-event, with the risk being that the PCE print comes in higher than expected, which would be an immediate exit signal.

What is the significance of the CPI and PPI prints in relation to the PCE print discussed in the script?

The CPI and PPI prints are used to calculate the PCE print, which is expected to show a disinflation process at work. The Fed is less focused on inflation currently, making these prints slightly less important.

What is the expected outcome of the US PC print and its potential impact on the dollar?

The US PC print is expected to be a mild 0.15% core reading and an annualized reading around 2%. A larger drop than expected could lead to further downside in the dollar.

How many interest rate cuts is the Fed expected to make this year according to the script?

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates four times this year, as per short-term interest rate markets.

What is the significance of the non-farm payroll data in the context of the Fed's dual mandate?

The non-farm payroll data indicates a steady addition of jobs to the economy, but recent revisions show a lower number than initially thought, suggesting a potential weakening in the labor market which is part of the Fed's dual mandate for maximum employment.

What is the potential opportunity discussed in the script in relation to the Canadian GDP release?

The potential opportunity lies in the Canadian GDP release, where a print well below market expectations could lead to downside in the Canadian dollar.

What does the script suggest about the market's reaction to the PC print and CAD GDP release?

The script suggests that the market reaction to the PC print should be benign, and any strong print could lead to CAD strength and USD weakness. However, the overall outlook for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates remains unchanged.

What is the strategy for trading the S&P 500 according to the script?

The strategy for trading the S&P 500 is to hold long positions, with potential entry points around the volume-weighted average price and looking for areas where buyers are in control and sellers are trapped.

What is the outlook for the Euro US dollar as per the script?

The outlook for the Euro US dollar is to look for potential long opportunities from the support level, with a focus on areas where buyers are in control and sellers are trapped.

How does the script summarize the big picture regarding the Fed's actions?

The big picture is summarized as focusing on whether the Fed will cut interest rates four times this year and if the labor market is slowing, which are the key factors influencing the Fed's decisions.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Analysis and Economic Indicators

The speaker begins by setting the scene for a financial market discussion, mentioning an S&P 500 buy bias and an upcoming PC event. They highlight the importance of being aware of potential risks, such as an unexpected high PC print, which would necessitate an immediate exit from the position. The speaker also discusses the current economic indicators, including CPI and PPI, and their implications for the PC print. They mention the Fed's focus on disinflation and employment, suggesting that inflation is less of a concern currently. The session aims to cover potential opportunities in the market, including the Canadian GDP release and its impact on the USD and S&P 500.

05:01

📉 Inflation, Interest Rates, and Market Expectations

This paragraph delves into the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and market expectations. The speaker explains that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates four times this year, with a 33% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September. They discuss the lag effect of interest rate changes on the economy and the rationale behind the Fed's potential rate cuts. The labor market is also a focus, with recent job data suggesting a weakening trend. The speaker connects these economic factors to the market's performance, particularly the S&P 500 and the USD, and discusses potential trading opportunities based on these expectations.

10:02

💹 Economic Data Impact on Currency and Market Trends

The speaker provides a detailed analysis of how economic data, specifically the PC print and Canadian GDP, can impact currency and market trends. They discuss the potential for the CAD to weaken if the PC print comes in lower than expected and the implications for the USD and the Euro USD pair. The paragraph also covers the Bank of Canada's challenges due to a high percentage of citizens facing higher mortgage rates upon renewal. The speaker outlines potential trading strategies based on the expected outcomes of these economic releases and provides a narrative for the market's reaction to the data.

15:02

📊 Real-time Market Reactions and Trading Opportunities

In this paragraph, the speaker discusses real-time market reactions to economic data releases, focusing on the S&P 500 and CAD. They mention that the PC print was benign and did not significantly impact the market, allowing for holding long positions in the S&P 500. The speaker also highlights a surprise in the CAD GDP data, which came in higher than expected, leading to potential CAD strength and USD weakness. They caution against chasing the USD lower and suggest looking for potential trading opportunities in the Euro USD pair, based on the current market conditions and the economic data.

20:03

📈 S&P 500 Futures Market and Intraday Trading Insights

The speaker shifts focus to the S&P 500 futures market, providing insights for intraday traders. They discuss the importance of recognizing 'trap sellers' and 'trap buyers' in the market and how these can indicate potential reversal points. The paragraph includes a detailed analysis of the S&P 500's price movements, volume-weighted average price, and key support and resistance levels. The speaker also provides a strategy for managing a long position in the S&P 500, considering the impact of the PC print and the overall market sentiment.

25:04

🔍 Wrapping Up the Session with Key Takeaways

In the final paragraph, the speaker summarizes the key takeaways from the session. They reiterate the importance of the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and the state of the labor market as the primary drivers of market trends. The speaker simplifies the complex analysis into two core questions: whether the Fed will cut rates four times this year and if the labor market is slowing down. They emphasize the importance of these factors in determining trading strategies and conclude the session by reminding viewers of the updated S&P 500 buy bias and looking forward to the next session.

Keywords

💡S&P 500

The S&P 500, or Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is often used as a proxy for the overall U.S. stock market. In the video, the speaker discusses the S&P 500's 'buy bias' and the potential for holding positions through a PC event, indicating the index's significance in the financial analysis being presented.

💡PC event

In the context of the video, 'PC event' likely refers to a scheduled economic data release, possibly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a measure of inflation. The speaker mentions holding positions through this event, highlighting the importance of economic data in financial market trading strategies.

💡CPI and PPI

CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, and PPI stands for Producer Price Index. Both are economic indicators that measure the average change in prices over time for a basket of consumer goods and services. In the video, the speaker refers to these indices to predict the PCE print, emphasizing their role in gauging inflationary trends and their influence on monetary policy.

💡FED

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the FED, is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a crucial role in implementing monetary policy, including interest rate decisions. The video discusses the FED's focus on inflation and employment, and the potential for interest rate cuts, which are central to the financial market analysis.

💡Interest rate cuts

Interest rate cuts refer to a central bank's decision to lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity. The speaker in the video talks about the market's expectation of four interest rate cuts by the FED, which is a key factor influencing the direction of financial markets, such as the S&P 500 and the U.S. dollar.

💡CAD GDP

CAD GDP refers to the Gross Domestic Product of Canada, a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in the country. The video script mentions the CAD GDP release as a potential trading opportunity, indicating that economic data from different countries can impact currency values and market expectations.

💡Dollar

In the financial context, 'dollar' often refers to the U.S. dollar, a primary reserve currency. The video discusses the potential for the dollar to strengthen or weaken based on economic data releases, showing how currency values are influenced by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment.

💡Yield

Yield in finance refers to the return on an investment, often associated with bonds. The speaker mentions yields in relation to PC print and its impact on the dollar, illustrating how changes in inflation expectations can affect bond prices and yields, which in turn influence currency markets.

💡E-mini

E-mini refers to smaller-sized contracts of futures on indices, such as the E-mini S&P 500, which are traded on financial exchanges. The video discusses opportunities in the E-mini market, highlighting the use of these contracts by traders for speculation and hedging purposes.

💡Volume weighted average price (VWAP)

VWAP is a trading benchmark that averages a security's price with the volume of trade during a specific period. The speaker in the video refers to VWAP when discussing potential reversal areas in the S&P 500, indicating its use in identifying key price levels and market momentum.

💡Non-farm payroll

Non-farm payroll data, often abbreviated as NFP, is a key employment indicator that measures the number of jobs added in the economy excluding the farming sector. The video mentions the upcoming NFP as a 'huge event,' reflecting its significance in influencing market movements and economic policy.

Highlights

S&P 500 has a buy bias at market, holding through the PC event.

Expectations are for a low PC event, with an exit strategy if it comes in higher than expected.

CPI and PPI prints suggest a mild PC print, indicating a disinflation process.

Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to maximum employment.

Market pricing reflects four interest rate cuts expected by the Fed this year.

Labor market data shows a weakening jobs market, which could influence Fed's decision-making.

S&P 500 long position is still valid, with a potential to retest highs.

Canadian GDP release at the same time as the PC print presents a trading opportunity.

A low PC print could weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen.

If the PC print is very strong, it could lead to immediate downside in the Euro US dollar.

Bank of Canada faces challenges as many citizens will renew mortgages at higher interest rates.

CAD GDP is expected to be lower than market expectations, which could affect the Canadian dollar.

The PC print came in benign, with no significant surprises, allowing for holding S&P 500 longs.

CAD GDP beat expectations, showing strength and potential for CAD to strengthen against the USD.

Market reaction to the PC print was muted, indicating a focus on other economic indicators.

End-of-month effects show a historical bias for upside in stocks, which could benefit the S&P 500.

Key reversal areas in the S&P 500 are identified for potential trading opportunities.

The session concluded with a focus on the S&P 500 long position and potential for further upside.

Transcripts

okay looks like that we're working let's

now share

screen oh that's super hello everybody

good to be with you hey

Brian check out that Futures comment in

Discord we'll have a little look if we

got time which we should do hey

Dan uh FY Felix good to see you guy good

to see some of the risk event guys

turning up verer welcome Jacob Richard

hey

jum all right

folks yeah hi

Anthony Alex right folks let's get stuck

into the session right so we're on the

cheat sheet couple of things first of

all on the cheat sheet this morning just

coming out sort of 8:30 UK time we at

that S&P 500 buy bias at Market okay now

that's fine to hold through this PC

event it's expected to be low it's

expected to be a non-event but just to

be aware of the risk okay that the risk

is that the PC e print comes in higher

than expected if it does coming higher

than expected that's an immediate exit

right no problem to hold it through

expectations are that it should be low

we have had the CPI print we have had

the PPI print those that calculate the

pce print from the CPI and the PPI are

saying that it's on track to be there or

thereabouts still showing disinflation

process at work and remember the fed's

less focused on inflation right now so

inflation will Al though has been super

important for us is now slightly less

important okay so that's just to get

that out the way so the S&P 500 buyby

still in play that's absolutely fine if

you are nervous you could always take

profit move to break even just before

the release now the PC print at 1:30 is

the event alongside the Canadian G DDP

released at the same time now there's a

good potential opportunity here so it's

definitely worth us covering and it's

also worth covering the US and the

Canadian GDP together because it's a

potential opportunity together

so let's go through the detail the a low

print is expected for the uspc print

right nickon ra who Maps the forecasters

and the analysts who are looking into

this in great depth and they can see

that the CPI and the PPI should mean the

PC is a mild print in July they're

expecting a core reading of

0.15% and an annualized reading around

2% so a large drop is expected and

that's just seen as as expected right

now if we see an even larger drop than

is expected then look for a little bit

more downside in the dollar right now

there's a

slight if you look at this what we need

to see we need to see this surprising

everybody okay we want to see this

coming in below markets minimum

expectations across the board and if we

get this as a price of the downside

little red lightning bolts then we can

know that's a good opportunity for

further dollar selling let me just give

you the narrative this is the narrative

going into the event right the

FED are expected to cut interest rates

four times this year that's what

short-term interest rate markets present

and the expectation

is that the next move in September that

there's a 33% chance of a 50 basis point

rate cut remember there's only three fed

meetings between now and the end of the

year one in September that was coming up

then there's one at the end of October

beginning of November it sort of spans

the two months and then the third one in

December so you'll notice

three decisions but four Cuts expected

that means one of the decision one of

the decisions has has to be a 50 basis

point rate cup so the fed and you can

see here that rapid repricing after the

last fed meeting they have made it

explicit they ask

now please the inflation is falling

lower and they're shifting to the second

part of their mandate which is maximum

employment right so this is the big

picture

right right there we go look at the

inflation rate it is falling lower

headline inflation the fed's pleased and

anticipating that to go to 2% you don't

wait to 2% to cut interest rates because

if you wait to 2% you've done it too

late there's a lag between

the interest rate move and the impact in

the economy that lag is around 12 to 18

months so what you're doing if you cut

now you're hopefully doing it a year 18

months in advance right of when you

actually need to do it so this is the

time to cut interest rates inflation's

falling and you can see look at the core

reading fed's going hoay hoay hray

inflation is moving lower right so this

is a reason for the FED to be reassured

that they're winning the inflation

battle hence we've seen that

market pricing of four interest rate

Cuts right so and that's the

reason now the FED have

also now

signaled that they're concerned about

the labor market and we've got more

information about the labor market so

this is the headline non-farm payroll

Sprint the US has been adding jobs to

the economy steadily The Bureau for

Labor Statistics made a revision from

March 23 to 202 said

actually you thought the US economy

added 2.9 Million jobs there only 2.1

million jobs still adding jobs but just

not as many okay so this labor market

may not be as strong as markets had

assumed if you look at the jobless data

you can see initial jobless claims

they're broadly trending higher see the

trend is up for the initial jobless

claims and then for the continued Jess

claims you can see what trend is up okay

so there's a little there's a weakening

in the jobs Market what can you see

continuing jobless claims trending

higher initial jobless claims trending

higher nonfarm payroll jobs trending

lower right so now and remember the

fed's Dual mandate maximum employment

stable prices so they look at inflation

and say yes we are getting stable prices

then they look at maximum employment and

say labor Market's weakening we need to

focus on this so how do they encourage

employment they can't interest

rates they ease conditions monetarily

for both us businesses and the US

consumer and that Prospect of monetary

easing is what's been

helping both the dollar

lower

and the S&P

500 higher and that's why we had that

nice expectations of upside the S&P 5

and a bullish piercing line pattern very

very strong bullish pattern there you

know re testing up at these highs 5 5640

5650 very very reasonable and it's not

unreasonable to expect a retest of these

highs as long as the PC print comes in

benign in other words as long as there's

not a big surprise of The Upside

right so that's the big narrative the

problem with

it is that this narrative has been

running for some time it's a bit old so

in order for this to be really

significant and remember there's

delay on this if you're following the

live stream you want to see this come in

0.0% for the month on month 2.4% for the

year on year 0.0% for the month on month

2.3% for the year on year surprise to

the downside you want to see the

revisions

unchanged okay or

lower now there's another opportunity

with the cad GDP at the same time if you

the Bank of Canada they've got a problem

around 50% of Canadian citizens have not

renewed at the highest at the higher

interest rate levels on their mortgages

so there's about 50% that are due to

remortgage and when they remortgage it's

going to be a much higher rate in the US

people take 25 30e mortgages here in the

UK the most popular mortgage is a 2-year

fixed rate so there's a much closer kind

of tether point between an interest rate

high and how it affects the economy in

the US there's still people stuck on 25

30-year mortgages at like whatever

ridiculous rate you used to be able to

get so Canada 50% have to renew at the

higher levels that that are around now

so that's difficult for them so if this

comes in well below Market's

expectations of

0.6% right and we see the month for

month coming in below minus 01 0.2% look

for downside in the Canadian dollar now

what we have to look for here is if this

PC print comes in very low

then that will weaken the dollar that

will send yields lower and that will

strengthen the Yen so if we see a miss

here and a miss here then we look for

Caden sellers okay Miss there and a miss

there you look for CAD Yen Sellers and

we look for an obvious Target first

Target the S1 ultimate Target the S2

that would be only in the situation

where we saw a big Miss in the Canadian

GDP and a miss in the PC print

okay now if we see very strong PC print

if this comes in 2.8% or higher if this

comes in 2.7% or high say this comes in

red uh green across the board then what

we'd look for is immediate downside in

the Euro US

dollar okay if it's just a pure miss

here right red lightning bolts it's EUR

Us doll upside if it's green here and

green lightning bolt it's Euro US dollar

downside look at the revisions if we see

very very strong print here okay dollar

strength and you see a big miss here

then that will be CAD weakness so you

look for dollar CAD upside I'll be

working this through as we go um for

those of you who want to Quick take a

quick screenshot of what to expect here

it

is otherwise I'm going to be here making

sense of it okay so we're going to look

at the headline first just going to turn

the

and then we'll look at opportunities in

the e-

mini e mini wanting to break out just

sitting below highs of the day just want

to make sure this is all right it's

expected to be

benign okay and that's what's um

reassuring markets in the runup it's

expected to be a benign print in other

words week and let's see what we get

okay 20 odd seconds

I'll be making sense of it remember

you're not only looking at the headline

you must also look at the revisions

because the revision can undo the

headline so let's have a

look 10 seconds to the bottom of the

hour okay here we

go all right let's see what we're

getting

here okay that's a beat so just hold

that in your mind but not going to do

anything with it we're waiting for the

PC data month a month in line l% unang

we had

expected no clear opportunity

there but that does mean if you're along

the S&P 500 you can hold that you can

hold that S&P 500 long that's absolutely

fine so the S&P 500 long to hold no

problem aniz GDP 2.1% above the expected

1.6 that is a surprise to the upside and

a prior so you could see some CAD

strength and this is dollar

weakness so you might see some dollar

CAD downside but I don't want to chase

the dollar any lower and I'll show why I

don't want to chase the dollar any lower

because just look at where the dollar is

on an index

level let me just show you so there

isn't anything tradeable there right S&P

500 Longs you could reenter Longs now if

you wanted and hold to the the end of

the

day right so here you go you see the

dollar it's right at these these levels

here at this this low support level no

everyone was expecting a low print okay

from this PC and that's what we've got

we've got a low print you know so

there's no surprise there's nothing

obviously tradeable there at all let's

look at the

cad at an index level and see how the

cads operated C's showing us a little

bit of strength the thing is this

doesn't change the big picture see the

strength is very mild it's marginally

better than expected but it won't change

the Outlook of the bank handle will be

cutting interest rates so there's

nothing clear with conviction there

either so you the only thing that will

be interesting is a potential swing

trade opportunity in the Euro US dollar

as we move forward so let's have a

little look at that right so you see the

Euro US dollar it's fulling that support

level this is a very nice area to

potentially look for buyers down here so

we'll be looking for opportunities to go

long the Euro US dollar from this area

we don't want to get involved here at

this area okay it just doesn't make

sense so let's now look at the Futures

Market in the e- mini to see where

there's

opportunities to go long in the e- mini

right if for those who are intraday

trading okay so what we've what we've

seen we've seen pretty benign print I'm

just going to check the headlines check

I haven't missed

anything it all looks pretty

weak yeah you can see yeah 2.6 below 2.7

expected 2.5 that's pretty much what we

expected wasn't it 0.2 2.5 so the fed's

winning the inflation battle does it

change pricing at all let's have a look

it's unlikely to be more than four

interest rate Cuts right so look at this

updated 15 minutes ago let's just see if

we got a fresh

update on

this few seconds ago lovely do we have

any change no do we have a slight tick

up slightly less chance of 50 basis

point cut so minimal okay so maybe a

little bit of dollar strength tiny weeny

bit Yeah so there's nothing tradeable

there cool doesn't change the big

picture doesn't change the narrative all

it does it sets up the jobs print for

the nanon payroll next week that will be

the that'll be a huge event huge

right this NFP is going to be

massive okay um and got ADP jobs that

set the mood on Thursday as well so jobs

in major Focus inflation in less focus

and look look at the way that the market

has

reacted hardly you know just a few ticks

in the S&P

500 let's look at the Euro US dollar

just a few ticks right look it's hardly

moving at all dollar not moving much at

all gold few ticks do you see this isn't

the market that's really you know super

focused on that

so inflation less of a focus we kind

expect and CAD GDP we were looking for

only looking for a weak print we've seen

a strong print look the bank of count

going to cut interest rates anyway it

doesn't matter if it's a bit higher than

markets are expecting so it shouldn't

change much and you got the month- on

month coming in slightly lower so you

got a bit of a contradiction

there right so what do we focus on that

SM P 500 from the cheat sheet the S&P

500 long that's still fine inflation

should fall tip yes it is there's less

impact from the precc print now anyway

yes it is fine the fed's looking to cut

interest rates yes they are four

interest rate Cuts Nidia earnings out

the way no major headaches there there's

the end of month effect if you look at

the end of the month effect you see

markets tend first day of the month what

you tend to see as upside in stocks over

the last you look over the last 25 years

my S&P fin the first day of the month

from the day before to 3 days after the

end of the month there is a bias upside

of half% from the day before the end of

the month the day after the end of the

month 0.34% 60% winning trade so there

is a bias there of upside okay now what

we're looking for now is potential

upside in the S&P 500 so let's going to

have a look at the Futures Market we're

seeing some moves taking place so this

is going to be exciting and we can look

for fresh areas of Interest

so will be expecting gains in the S&P

500 right so let's see what we got so

going to look at this from the top down

so first of all where can we see price

has moved up to the point of control for

the

week okay that's the point that's the

most place with the most amount of price

and contracts were transacting was here

that 5636 right we've seen price

potentially make an attempt a break to

the upside and now pulling lower okay

now don't buy that right at all just

hold fire we have trapped sellers here

here here and here so there's a big

bundle of trap Sellers and the Market's

coming into those trap sellers now so

this is a decent area here to look for a

potential

reversal right in the the S&P 500 you

can see you got sellers sellers they're

all trapped all trapped by those buyers

there these buyers are in control and

they will remain in control until you

see these or these buyers getting

trapped at the moment they're being

tested right these buyers but they're

fine and this is an area we see a

reversal so we're in a key reversal area

and we were there earlier and now we're

back there this is also the volume

weighted average price now if you look

at this on the the 15minute chart and

you look at the daily chart you can see

here the value area low from yesterday

was here value area high is up there and

you can see that this region

here

right

is this value

area going across all

these days here so we're in a key area

we where you expect if you're going to

get bias you'd expect to step in at this

level here so got trap cells trap right

so now we're starting to see an area of

interest for us we want to

see buyers or sellers trapped right so

this is a 15minute chart you got buyers

here buyers there the buyers are still

very much in control we had the Trap

Sellers from earlier in the session okay

they're still trapped down here uh in

order for price to move lower you want

to see these buyers those buyers are

trapped so at the moment you see those

buyers and those buyers into the PC

print they are currently

trapped Okay so we've got some buyers

trapped and if this closes on the

15minute chart below that area then all

of those buyers are trapped and you can

see a little bit more downside in the

S&P 500 and then you look for buyers

around that 5620 area which is a value

area low for the day as we head into the

New York open okay so we're looking for

buyers here we're looking for buyers

there let's have a look go down to the

five minute chart let's see what we got

okay so where we got the sellers so we

have buyers up there they got trapped

move lower buyers there trapped price

mve lower they got shaken out with the

PC print and often you get this kind

that's a false break of that level and

and the price is going to you end up

probably wanting to go up that way

anyway and that's just a false break of

that level so what we can look for here

is a place where

these sellers get

stuck so where's where's where where's a

high volume of sellers got high volume

of sellers

there look on the 15 minute

chart got potentially high volume

sellers

here okay so you can see the buyers

stepping back in and what's happening

there is this is a defense of this area

you see earlier in the session you had

sers trapped sellers trapped sellers

trapped with this candle here so the

buyers are defending this 5627 level and

that's the obvious area so you look at

the 30 minute chart right if this closes

above that high above this body that

means that those buyers are still

actually in control on on the 30 minute

chart right and what we want to look on

the 5 minute chart is look for sort of

sellers starting getting trapped

so at the moment you got buyers trapped

there there and there so that those

buyers aren't trapped those buyers are

still

fine these

buyers they're still fine so the only

buyers that are trapped are these ones

up here right so that means if you see

this High getting taken

out then that that will indicate further

upside um if you see this level getting

taken out then those first lot of

sellers are trapped so for me I just I'm

going to zoom out to the 15 minute chart

and see how it develops okay but this is

the kind so the area to look for trap

sellers is down 5630 and if that breaks

look for

5620

okay so is the S&P 500 by bu still in

play yes it

is right

yeah so if you if you see it did you see

how for those of you who earlier we did

that I showed you that trade that I took

early this morning from here to here

right and imagine if you were managing

that Brian so let's just run through it

okay so you got the S&P 500 long you

know I had a second entry here about

5625 I was just just missed out on it

right so you're long there so let's see

so you got buyers here and here okay

buyers are in control control you get

first lot of sellers there have they

taken out the buyers no you get more

buyers there more buyers there buyers

firmly in control you got sellers there

have they managed to take out any buyers

at all none buyers sellers have they

managed to take out any buyers at all

moo have have these man to take yes so

here this candle has taken out these

buyers here okay so there's a potential

downside you saw Buy coming back in but

they didn't take out the sellers and

then when you saw the sellers they were

coming in these buyers here look you see

that that seller here took out these

buys those buys and those Buys so this

candle took them and that was when you

got a flush lower that was predictable

okay you can see a flush lower there and

then oh look at this all those sellers

taken

out right so those sellers are taken out

by these buyers they all trapped you got

sellers there they're just they not

taking anyone out you got sellers here

have they taken out any

buyers they haven't taken those buyers

out right do you see and now you got

buyers buyers

buyers the buyers are still very much in

control and now the buyers are trying to

take out this on the five minute chart

okay this this is what you want to see

cleared out really once that gets

cleared out then there's a potential for

a nice move

up so all in all that's what you'd

expect this is the area we expecting

from buyers

from

um at that volume weighted average

price and it's still fine to hold that

till the end of the the

session

okay okay for a fiddly one today but at

least we've been able to get that S&P

500 on the

way

um yeah a lot of info today it has been

a lot and it's been fiddly because just

don't forget the big picture with the

fed you can you can make this really

complicated and I can show you loads of

charts and it just gets ridiculous

really you know people got jobs and

lives to do that the big picture is

basically in a nutshell is this is the

Fed going to cut four times this year or

not that's what it comes down to is the

labor market slowing or not

that's what it's it's just those two

questions basically and if you just have

those two questions does this make the

Fred more or less likely to cut interest

rates four times this year um is the

labor market slowing then that that that

will solve 95% of the of the questions

you're going to have

right all right folks that is it for now

we'll be back on Monday schedule to be

back anyway have a very lovely weekend

thank you all very much and look forward

to speaking to you soon we'll update the

S&P 500 byby on the cheat sheet for

financial Source guys

um and anyone else looking for the um

cheat cheat it will be up updated

otherwise close at the end of play today

if we haven't hit yesterday's highs

first all right folks that's all for now

take care and speak soon thanks everyone

bye