Has the Nvidia (NVDA) and SMCI Bubble Burst?

Summary

Nvidia's recent earnings report exceeded expectations, with a revenue of $30 billion, up 15% quarter-over-quarter and 122% year-over-year, and earnings per share at 68 cents, 4 cents above estimates. Despite this, the stock price dropped 7% after hours, prompting discussions on whether Nvidia's growth potential is waning. The video also addresses Super Micro Computer's (SMCI) plummeting stock price due to accounting irregularities, cautioning against investing in companies with a history of financial fraud.

Takeaways

• 📈 Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings with revenue at $30 billion, exceeding expectations by $1.3 billion.
• 🔼 They beat earnings per share estimates, reporting 68 cents compared to the expected 64 cents.
• 💹 Nvidia raised their forward guidance for Q3 2025 to $32.5 billion in revenue, an increase of $8 billion from previous estimates.
• 📊 Year-on-year revenue increased by 122%, and earnings per share (both GAAP and non-GAAP) saw significant growth of 168% and 152% respectively.
• 📉 Despite the positive earnings report, Nvidia's stock price dropped over 7% in after-hours trading, raising questions about the stock's valuation.
• 💡 The speaker's intrinsic value calculation for Nvidia is $122, with a conservative valuation at $94, indicating a potential buying range.
• 🚫 The speaker advises against adding more Nvidia shares unless the price drops significantly, highlighting a preference for a margin of safety.
• 📉 The speaker sold cash-secured put options at a $97 strike price, aiming to average down their cost basis if assigned shares.
• 🚨 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) faced a sharp decline in stock price due to accusations of accounting irregularities, leading to a drop of over 20%.
• ❌ The speaker warns against investing in companies with a history of financial fraud, citing examples like Worldcom and Enron, which ended in bankruptcy.

Q & A

What was the outcome of Nvidia's recent earnings report?

Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings, beating on both revenue and earnings per share. Their revenue was $30 billion, which was $1.3 billion above expectations, and their earnings per share were 68 cents, 4 cents above expectations.

How did Nvidia's stock price react to the earnings report?

Despite the positive earnings report, Nvidia's stock price dropped over 7% after hours.

What is the intrinsic value of Nvidia according to the speaker's valuation?

The speaker's intrinsic value for Nvidia is $122, which is based on certain growth projections and assumptions.

What is the speaker's conservative valuation for Nvidia?

The speaker's conservative or pessimistic valuation for Nvidia is $94.

What are the buy points for Nvidia that the speaker has identified?

The speaker has identified buy points at $105, $95, $75, and $71 for Nvidia, based on technical analysis and support levels.

Why did the speaker sell cash-secured put options on Nvidia?

The speaker sold cash-secured put options at a $97 strike price to collect a premium, which would lower his average purchase price for more Nvidia shares if assigned.

What is the comparison the speaker makes between Nvidia and Cisco during the dotcom boom?

The speaker compares Nvidia to Cisco during the dotcom boom, noting that while Cisco's revenue increased 15-fold and its stock price increased 42-fold during the six-year boom, Nvidia's revenue has only increased fivefold in the 1.7 years since the AI Revolution began, suggesting there may be more growth potential for Nvidia.

What is the speaker's stance on buying stocks of companies accused of financial fraud?

The speaker advises against buying stocks of companies accused of financial fraud, citing examples of Worldcom and Enron, which went to zero after such accusations.

What happened to Super Micro Computer (SMCI) that caused its stock price to drop significantly?

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was accused of accounting irregularities by Hindenburg Research, which led to a significant drop in its stock price.

Why did the speaker decide not to invest in Super Micro Computer (SMCI) despite its previous recommendation?

The speaker decided not to invest in SMCI after further research revealed concerns such as inconsistent negative free cash flow, high customer concentration risk, and the use of commodity components in their products, which did not meet his investment criteria.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Nvidia's Earnings Report and Stock Price Movement

Nvidia recently reported earnings that exceeded expectations, with a revenue of $30 billion, surpassing predictions by $1.3 billion. Earnings per share were 68 cents, 4 cents higher than anticipated. Despite these positive results, Nvidia's stock price dropped by over 7% after the report, leading to speculation about a potential bubble burst. The video discusses whether this is a buying opportunity or a sign of more significant downturns. The speaker also compares Nvidia's growth to Cisco's during the dotcom era, suggesting that Nvidia's current growth trajectory is sustainable and not indicative of a bubble.

05:00

💹 Analyzing Nvidia's Stock Performance and Future Prospects

The speaker shares their personal valuation of Nvidia at $122, considering it a fair intrinsic value. They discuss their optimistic and pessimistic growth projections, setting a valuation range from $94 to $122. The speaker outlines their strategy for buying more Nvidia shares, identifying specific support levels where they would consider purchasing additional stocks. They also mention selling cash-secured put options as a strategy to potentially lower their average purchase price. The video addresses concerns about Nvidia's rapid growth and compares it to Cisco's during the dotcom bubble, suggesting that Nvidia may still have room to grow without being overvalued.

10:01

📉 Super Micro Computer's Accounting Irregularities and Stock Crash

The video shifts focus to Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which has been accused of accounting irregularities leading to a significant drop in its stock price. The speaker had previously identified concerns with SMCI, including inconsistent free cash flow and high customer concentration risk, which led them to avoid investing in the company. The recent accusations by Hindenburg Research have further validated the speaker's decision to stay away from SMCI. They advise against investing in companies with a history of financial fraud, drawing parallels to past cases like Worldcom and Enron.

15:03

⚠️ The Dangers of Investing in Companies with Fraud Accusations

The speaker emphasizes the risks associated with investing in companies accused of financial fraud, using historical examples of Worldcom and Enron to illustrate the potential for complete loss of investment. They recount their own experience with Super Micro Computer, detailing how they had previously identified red flags and decided against investing. The recent allegations against SMCI reinforce the speaker's investment philosophy of avoiding companies with a history of dishonest financial practices. The speaker advises viewers to be cautious and to prioritize trustworthiness in their investment decisions.

20:06

🚀 Final Thoughts on Investing in Nvidia and SMCI

In conclusion, the speaker reiterates their stance on Nvidia, suggesting that despite the recent stock price drop, it remains a strong investment due to its growth potential and alignment with their valuation models. Conversely, they advise against investing in Super Micro Computer due to the recent fraud accusations and the company's history of financial irregularities. The speaker encourages viewers to learn from their investment strategies and to seek out opportunities that offer both growth potential and financial integrity.

Keywords

💡Earnings Report

An earnings report is a formal record of a company's financial performance over a specific period, typically a quarter or a year. It includes revenue, earnings per share, and other financial metrics. In the video, Nvidia's earnings report is highlighted as exceeding expectations, with better-than-anticipated revenue and earnings, which is central to the discussion on the company's stock performance and future valuation.

💡Stock Price

The stock price represents the cost at which shares of a company are bought and sold in the stock market. The video script discusses how, despite Nvidia's positive earnings report, the stock price dropped significantly after hours, indicating a disconnect between the company's financial health and market sentiment.

💡Buyback

A buyback refers to a company repurchasing its own shares from the market, which can support the stock price and is seen as a sign of confidence in the company's value. The script mentions Nvidia's plan to buy back 50 billion shares, suggesting a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

💡Forward Guidance

Forward guidance is a projection or forecast provided by a company regarding its future performance. Nvidia raised its forward guidance, indicating to investors its expectations for future revenue, which is a key factor in assessing the company's growth potential.

💡Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value is an estimate of a company's true value, based on its fundamentals and future cash flows, and is used by investors to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. The video discusses the intrinsic value of Nvidia, which the speaker uses to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell the stock.

💡Valuation Range

A valuation range is the span between an optimistic and pessimistic valuation of a company, providing a buffer for uncertainty in the company's future performance. The script uses Nvidia's valuation range to illustrate the speaker's strategy for buying more shares at certain price points.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves studying past market data, such as price and volume, to predict future market trends. The video references using technical analysis to identify support levels at which the speaker would consider buying Nvidia shares.

💡Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is a principle in investing that suggests buying a stock at a price significantly below its estimated intrinsic value to reduce risk. The script mentions the importance of a margin of safety in the speaker's investment decisions.

💡Accounting Irregularities

Accounting irregularities refer to discrepancies or questionable practices in a company's financial reporting. The video discusses Super Micro Computer's (SMCI) alleged accounting irregularities, which led to a significant drop in its share price and raised concerns about the company's trustworthiness.

💡Economic Moat

An economic moat is a sustainable competitive advantage that protects a company from competitors. The script mentions that SMCI does not have a strong economic moat, implying that its products can be easily replicated by competitors, which is a red flag for investors.

💡Financial Fraud

Financial fraud involves the intentional deception to manipulate financial statements or records, leading to investor losses. The video warns against investing in companies accused of financial fraud, using examples like Worldcom and Enron, which collapsed after such revelations.

Highlights

Nvidia reported earnings that were much better than expected.

Nvidia beat on revenue and earnings per share.

Nvidia announced a share buyback of 50 billion shares.

Despite positive earnings, Nvidia's stock price dropped over 7% after hours.

Nvidia's revenue for the quarter was $30 billion, 1.3 billion above expectations.

Earnings per share were 68 cents, 4 cents above expectations.

Nvidia raised their forward guidance to $32.5 billion in revenue.

Year-on-year revenue increase for Nvidia was 122%.

GAAP diluted share earnings were up 168% from a year ago.

Non-GAAP earnings were up 152% from a year ago.

The intrinsic value of Nvidia is estimated at $122.

A conservative valuation for Nvidia is $94.

The speaker would consider buying more Nvidia shares if the price drops to $95.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is accused of accounting irregularities.

SMCI's share price dropped over 20% due to the accounting irregularities.

The intrinsic value of SMCI was previously calculated at $100, but the speaker now avoids the stock.

SMCI has a history of financial fraud accusations and SEC charges.

The speaker advises to avoid companies accused of financial fraud and to sell if already invested.

Transcripts

So Yesterday Nvidia reported earnings

that were much better than expected they

beat on Revenue they beat on earnings

they were buying back 50 billion shares

that reported raising their forward

guidance but despite that the stock

price dropped over 7% after hours so

does that mean that the Nvidia bubble

has finally burst and we'll also take a

look at Super Micro computer smci that

just got accused of accounting uh

irregularities that caused a share price

to create over 20% yesterday let's find

out more in this video whether these are

buys holes or

[Music]

selles so yesterday almost everyone in

the market was waiting for nvidia's

earnings because Nvidia is one of the

most valuable companies on the planet

today and their earnings didn't

disappoint they in fact reported better

than expected earnings uh here's a quick

summary so their revenue came in at $30

billion which was 1.3 billion above

expectations their earnings per share

came in at 68 cents which was a bit of 4

cents and they raised their quarter Tre

2025 guidance to

32.5 billion in Revenue which was um an

increase of8 billion uh in terms of year

on-year increase which to me is the most

important thing their revenue came in

for the quarter at 30 billion which is

up 15% from quarter 1 but more

importantly year on year

Revenue excuse me is up

122% and the let's see the earnings

which are Gap diluted share earnings was

up 168% from a year ago and non- GAP

earnings was up 152% from a year ago so

as an investor when I take a look at

this I asked myself this question when I

first valued this stock it's based on

certain growth projections so when these

earnings report come in is it in line

with the growth assumptions I made in my

valuation in in the case of Nvidia so

far pretty pretty good it is in line in

fact it's slightly above uh what I

projected in my valuations so in case

you don't know I think I mentioned it

before my latest valuation for NVIDIA

there's no change for the valuation and

my valuation is at uh let just take a

look uh

$122 so that is my intrinsic value of

Nvidia now because Nvidia there is again

a bit of uncertainty of their future

growth so I like to have what I call an

optimistic growth projection or rather

base case and a more pessimistic like if

everything goes wrong and they don't

grow as much as people think then what

are the shares worth okay so for my

pessimistic valuation it is

$94 so that is my conservative valuation

that is my base case valuation so this

is what I call my valuation range

so once I know my valuation range it

becomes very simple right as long as the

stock price goes below the intrinsic

value and I've got a margin of safety I

would happily add more shares okay now

but given I already have kind of like a

full position in Nvidia Nvidia is

already about the fifth largest position

in my portfolio so I would not add more

unless it gets much much cheaper okay so

what I do for all my subscri rers in the

ultimate investors Playbook is that I

will update the intrinsic value of every

stock every month but of course you can

do it yourself you can always uh

download my intrinsic value calculator

as part of the whale investor cost learn

how to Value the stock really simple

takes 10 minutes to to do it and you can

do your own valuation okay so you can

see for every stock I've got my

valuation

range and I also identify at least three

to four buy points where I would add

shares and these buy points are based on

technical analysis based on support

levels so you can see that for

NVIDIA my support levels where I would

add shares as an investor would be 105

that is my first buy level right which

gives me a margin of safety below the

intrinsic value 105 the next support

level to add would be

$95 these are the black lines Next Level

to add will be 75 and finally $71

so given that I already have quite a bit

of Nvidia shares I won't add more even

if it drops to 105 because to me at 105

is it's okay it's below valuation but

it's not super compelling right so I'll

only add more personally if it gets uh

to nearer $95 so what I did a few days

ago which I sent the notification to my

subscribers was I sold cash secure put

options at 97 strike price and I

collected a premium of about about close

to $2 premium right so which means if

Nvidia stays below $97 in 30 days I'll

be assigned Nvidia shares at $97 strike

price minus the premium I collected my

average purchase price for more Nvidia

be $95 which I think is a damn good deal

okay but I think for now I don't think

Nvidia will drop below 97 it looks like

uh it dropped 7% aftermarket hours and

today if you take a look at the

pre-market you can see Nvidia is trading

at a pre-market of 121 right now so

unlikely that right now it's going to

drop below 97 and unlikely I can add any

shares

yeah okay but having said that if I was

an investor with no Nvidia shares and I

wanted to start buying would I buy at

this price no I would right because it's

right now at a fair value it's at a fair

price but as an investor we want to only

buy when it's below the valuation so we

get a margin of safety so again as a new

investor to edit for the first time I

want want I want to get it at least at

105 so does it mean that it's going to

go to 105 of course not we can't predict

the future if it doesn't so be it buy

something else there a lot of efficien

see if it goes to 105 great opportunity

to add more Nvidia now you know the

funny thing is that you know some people

would would be asking they say but you

know Nvidia has gone up so much uh in

the last two years or so and is it the

end of the run for for NVIDIA is it you

know is is it at top of the bubble and

they like to compare it with

Cisco those of you who are old enough

will remember that during the dot Boom

the dot boom started in late 94 1994 to

2000 so that was a time where people

went crazy all the internet is going to

change the world and everything a dotom

people bought and share price went up

even for companies that were not making

money right now at a time Cisco was the

most important

company uh for the internet uh

Revolution right because Cisco was

involved in building the backbone the

infrastructure of the internet very

similar to Nvidia which is now building

the infrastructure and backbone of the

AI Revolution so it's a pretty good

comparison right so true enough Cisco um

you know their revenue was growing their

share price was growing and eventually

of course the bubble burst because it

got ahead of itself and then it

collapsed and slowly it's it's coming

back up taking a long time to go back up

so people are saying hey is NVIDIA also

at the end and this is a very quick

question to answer that question let's

put them side by side and let's see if

we can find any

similarities so first let's look take a

look at a dotcom bubble or doom boom

which turned into a bubble so the dotcom

boom started in late 1994 and it peaked

in the year 2000 where the bubble burst

so it was a six-year Run for the do boom

so during during this six years Cisco

which again was the most important

company the AI sorry in the internet

Revolution uh their revenue during that

six years their revenue increased 1,

1400% which is 15

fold and at that time their share price

increased

4,100 which is

42 times okay so where is NVIDIA now

based on this comparison so the current

AI Revolution started with the launch of

cck GPT which was late 2022 in fact

November 2022 so from then to now which

is August 2024 it's about 1.7 years so

if you compare that 1.7 years to 6 years

you know there's still a couple of years

to go if you want to do that comparison

okay now so far in this 1.7 years what

has happened to nvidia's revenue

nvidia's revenue has increased

400% or fivefold which again is nowhere

near Cisco's Revenue that increased 15

fold so in other words Nvidia could

still have a long Runway to go in this

AI Revolution all right at the same time

from the start off that that AI

Revolution check GPT launching Nvidia

stock price has increased

830 on 9.34 which some people would

think W it's already gone up nine times

how much higher can it go hey Cisco went

up freaking 42 times 42 times we could

be just at the beginning okay so because

of that no I ain't selling I'm not

selling my Nvidia shares I'm holding it

for the 42x yeah okay will he get it I

don't know he will get there I think so

right maybe more maybe less but you know

somewhere around there now having said

that you may say but Adam if you are so

confident it's going to go up so much

more why you just going and buy more now

why because remember nothing goes up in

a straight line the stock price will not

go up every day every week every month

every year for for the next four years

right there will be big ups and downs be

like a roller coaster so I don't want to

jump in while it's you know still near a

high I want to get in after a wave down

like Buffett always says you got to be

greedy when everyone is panicking

everyone is fearful people think we're

going to die that's when you get a damn

good price that's when you buy at a

share price way below the intrinsic

value get a marginal safety okay by the

way if you take a look at Cisco Cisco

went up 4,000% the share price but

during that sixe run Cisco's stock price

had multiple declines or Draw Downs of

between 20 to 30% during its ascent so

similarly I can tell you that although I

think Nvidia can still grow tremendously

in the next 4 years there will be

crashes we wouldn't call it crashes

there there will be pullbacks or Draw

Downs of 20 to 30% there will be I can

guarantee you that in fact who knows

right now we could drop another 20%

right we could I don't know right so

there will be opportunities to add more

in the future so uh that's why I would

say don't chase the girl when a girl

runs away don't chase the girl wait for

the girl to run into your arms when

she's fearful because she'll always get

fearful once in a while or guy whatever

is your your gender preference right let

me talk about super micro computer smci

holy all right the the stock price

is down like uh what 64% from the high

from 1229 it's down 443 and pre-market

it looks like it's going down more to

427 430 so of course I've got questions

from people is this a buy is this an

opportunity to buy a stock when it's

down so much when it looks like it's

really undervalued and people are

panicking first let me set the record

straight okay if you guys recall 6

months ago I made a video about smci

because it was one of the hottest stocks

and I said at a time that my intrinsic

value calculation was

$1,006 okay and I said if it goes below

that to these buy levels hey could be

something to buy all right I said that

and

then uh after smci crashed especially

the last few days people say hey you

said this cheap what's going on Adam

obviously these people didn't read my

followup post okay because after I

created this video I did more research

into the company and I said oh I

don't think I'm going to buy it anymore

all right I found some things that were

really

concerning and I actually posted this on

all my social media including YouTu

YouTube and this was 6 months ago and uh

it was there right and uh I said that

yep Al although smci looks like a very

profitable business with revenues

growing and blah blah blah however I had

a few concerns that do not meet my

investment criteria as you guys know I

only invest in the top 1% of companies

in the world that are very very very

safe that are very predictable that are

very consistent and once I find there

could be something wrong no thank you I

I don't buy that right that's the reason

I don't buy snowflake or or or pelatin

or or Tesla because you know all these

companies that's there always something

wrong which no thanks I'm going to avoid

them right so for smci what did I find

wrong uh number one the company has

inconsistent negative free cash flow in

certain years so whenever a company has

got revenue growing profits growing but

free cash flow negative usually there's

something wrong there's a red flag they

could be doctoring their account and

I've seen that before in other companies

like in Singapore one company called uh

high flux and another one that was if

I'm Nobel group same issue right uh so

when I looked at it I say okay I think

something's wrong I'm I'm going to avoid

that yeah next high customer

concentration risk a significant

percentage of Revenue comes from a few

customers that was another concern they

don't have a very strong economic mode

right so basically smci their products

they look like eeka shelves okay right

and while their mode is stronger than

Dell and h HP it is not strong enough uh

a mode and economic mode for me to be

comfortable in um at the same time their

core components used in their servers

are commodity components that can easily

be replicated by other players right so

because of that I I said to my

subscribers I shared on my social media

I said I won't buy this stock all right

so to set the record straight I I

already said so don't buy it yeah now

but to be and and after that what

happened was obviously the stock started

going down

okay but then what happened was two days

ago Hindenburg which is a research firm

that specializes in finding companies

that engage in fraud and they shot these

companies they said that they found that

smci uh they accused smci of um

doctoring their accounts now now this

was something that is very hard to

predict okay now I didn't predict it

myself I didn't predict it myself right

so and the whole thing came down there's

no way to predict it but it happens okay

so the stock created in the in the last

two days so the question is uh is this

an opportunity to buy and from my

experience I will never touch these kind

of stocks here's the thing I love great

companies when they're hit by bad news

all kinds of bad news like they miss

their earnings they miss their revenue

China we I'll buy it because these are

solvable problems these are short-term

issues but the moment a company's

accused of financial irregularities once

they accused of do doctoring their books

I will never touch this company why few

reasons number one You Don't Know How

Deep The Rabbit Hole goes when there's

smoke there's fire and whatever

valuation I did where I calculated the

intrinsic value which was ,000 is based

on data that I thought I could trust

based on revenues and and earnings right

but now if you tell me that all these

are doctored they are misrepresented

then what's the intrinsic value it could

be anything right the value of the stock

could be a th000 it could be 500 it

could be freaking zero all right so you

know no thank you I'm not going to buy

this kind of stock it's kind of like in

a marriage for example if your husband

or or wife makes a mistake you know for

example the

uh you know they lose their job their

business goes bus you stick with them

through thick and thin all right because

they can solve the problems but the

moment you catch your husband coming

home with lipstick on the shirt or a

condom drops off of his pocket the

marriage is over right you know that you

can't trust this guy anymore okay and

the worst thing is that if you caught

him cheating before and it's not the

first time and in fact this is what is

happening to super micr computers so it

is not the first time they're being

accused of fraud they were accused

before they admitted it yeah we we did

it they paid a fine and they're doing it

again or looks like they're doing it

again right so that is really scary so

this is from the report of Hindenburg

and they found glaring accounting red

flags evidence of undisclosed related

party transactions sanctions that they

went against export control failures and

customer issues in 2018 by the way I did

read read this before I forgot that I

read it and now it became clear in 2018

super micro was temporarily delisted

from NASDAQ for failing to file their

financial statements and by August 2020

the company was charged by the SEC for

widespread accounting violations so they

did this before they were caught

cheating before it's not the first time

and it was related to $200 million in

improperly recognized revenue and

understated expenses resulting in AR

officially elevated sales earnings and

profit

margins here's a scary thing Less Than 3

months after paying 17.5 million fine

for their

wrongdoing they fired those Executives

who were dishonors but 3 months later

they rehired these top Executives that

were directly involved in the accounting

Scandal it's like okay let's do it again

right right it's like again

you know you caught your husband

cheating he broke up with with his that

girlfriend he was affair with and then

he meets That Girl Again okay and a

former salesperson told us that almost

all of them are back almost all the

people that were let go that were the

cause of the of this

m how the hell do you pronounce this m

sense oh that's beyond my english

comprehension they are back okay so yeah

because of that you know what I'm not

going to touch this stock if I was in

this stock I would just get out I would

just get out now again is it possible

that after I sell the price rebounds

back up of course it's possible right I

can predict the short-term movement all

right but I'm not willing to take the

risk because I've seen this movie before

companies that are accused of financial

fraud if it is really really bad the

company can go to zero right so if I own

the shares I rather lose 30% of my money

or 40% than freaking 100% and for those

of you who are not old enough to

remember these two companies really

taught me this lesson to avoid companies

once they accused of financial fraud the

first is

Worldcom Worldcom was the second largest

Telephone Company in the us at the time

and Worldcom was in the Dow Jones

Industrials average was one of the

biggest companies in the world and in

the S&P 500 and it was selling at $55

per share and once they were once they

started to be accused of financial fraud

their CEO resigned and the the stock

basically went to zero another one is

Enron again Enron was one of the biggest

companies in the world so these are not

small companies these were huge Dow

Jones Industrial S&P 500 and Enron was

named America's most Innovative company

for six consecutive years it was one of

the biggest energy commodity companies

in the world and from a share price of

90 sorry $86 again once they found that

the revenue and profits were fraudulent

they were all faked right stock went to

freaking zero so all I can say is and

this is something I teach in my

investing course that once a company's

accus of financial fraud get out just

get the F out all right so that's it for

this video hope you learned something

may the markets be with you and I'll see

you guys in the next video if you want

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is Adam coup and may the markets be with

you