Dövizde gizemli hareket | Yüzde 1.49 kredi? | Borsada VİOP

Summary

The video script discusses the sudden jump of the Turkish Lira (TL) against the US dollar in the Asian market, followed by a quick intervention by public banks to stabilize it. It highlights the difference between the TL's value increase and inflation rates since March, suggesting foreign investors are aware of the situation. The script also covers the rise in foreign exchange (FX) futures and investment funds, with a focus on currency funds' performance and the potential impact of economic policies on future returns. It concludes with a mention of the US Federal Reserve's upcoming data release and its influence on global markets, including gold prices and the Turkish stock market.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Turkish Lira (TL) experienced a sudden jump against the US dollar in the Asian market, reaching almost 50 kuruş, but was quickly intervened by public bank traders to stabilize it.
• 🏦 The central bank's control over the TL is evident as it swiftly responded to the currency's fluctuation, indicating a strategic approach to economic management.
• 📊 Despite inflation in Turkey rising to 23% since March, the value of the dollar has not increased proportionally, suggesting a discrepancy between inflation rates and currency appreciation.
• 💰 Foreign investors are likely observing the Turkish market, as evidenced by the increase in foreign exchange (FX) forwards and investment funds, anticipating potential future gains.
• 📉 The Turkish stock market experienced a decline, influenced by reports about banks' target prices and the overall economic outlook.
• 💡 The central bank's policy appears to be aimed at preventing excessive TL depreciation against foreign currencies, using interest rate decisions as a tool to combat inflation.
• 🌐 The global economic situation, including the US Federal Reserve's decisions and corporate earnings reports, has a significant impact on the Turkish market.
• 🤔 Rumors about banks offering housing loans at 1.49% interest are likely false, as they contradict the current tight monetary policy.
• 📊 Gold prices fluctuated, with a significant drop in world markets, influenced by the US dollar index and global economic indicators.
• 📉 The Borsa Istanbul experienced a mixed day, with some sectors like construction and transportation showing gains, while banks and finance-related stocks declined.
• 🔮 Looking forward, the removal of the VIP (Venture Investment Partnership) effect and the release of Nvidia's earnings report in the US are expected to influence the Turkish market in the coming days.

Q & A

What unusual event occurred with the dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate at 4 AM?

The dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate suddenly jumped at around 4 AM, gaining nearly 50 kurusha, reaching 3.49 lira, but it quickly dropped back down to its previous level.

What did the sudden fluctuation in the exchange rate indicate about the economic management?

The sudden fluctuation indicated that the economic management has full control over the Turkish Lira, as the relevant authorities intervened immediately to bring the rate back to its intended level.

How did the exchange rate movement compare to the inflation rate since March?

Since March, the inflation rate has accumulated to 23%, but the dollar has not increased by the same percentage against the Turkish Lira, showing a significant discrepancy.

What is the current situation with foreign investors' perception of the Turkish economy?

Foreign investors are likely observing the sharp movements in the market and adjusting their positions accordingly, with an increase in foreign exchange and bond investments.

What has been the trend in foreign exchange funds in the past week?

Foreign exchange funds have seen significant growth, with Deniz Portföyü receiving approximately 2 billion dollars and AK Portföyü receiving about 1 billion dollars in the past week.

What is the current monthly return of foreign exchange funds compared to interest-based funds?

The monthly returns of foreign exchange funds are around 7.5% to 7%, while interest-based funds are offering around 4.3% monthly returns.

What is the Central Bank of Turkey's stance on the Turkish Lira's real appreciation?

The Central Bank of Turkey aims for the real appreciation of the Turkish Lira and uses it in its fight against inflation, indicating that it does not want the dollar to rise too much.

How has the performance of the British Pound, Euro, and Danish Krone compared to the Turkish Lira since the beginning of 2019?

Since the beginning of 2019, the British Pound has risen by 201.9%, the Euro by 115.1%, the Danish Krone by 155%, and the US Dollar by 155% against the Turkish Lira.

What is the impact of the rumored 1.49% interest rate home loan by Ziraat Bank and Halkbank on the housing market?

If true, the rumored 1.49% interest rate home loan would likely cause an increase in housing prices, which are currently declining both in real and nominal terms in cities like Istanbul and Izmir.

What is the expected outcome of the critical data release in the US, including the personal consumption expenditure price index?

The release of the personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which in turn could affect the direction of gold and other markets.

How did the Borsa Istanbul perform on the day the script was recorded?

The Borsa Istanbul opened higher but later fell into negative territory due to a report on bank stocks, eventually closing near the previous day's level with a slight increase.